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		<title>Being University President Gets You Secret Service. Tenure Doesn&#8217;t.</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/university-president-tenure/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sabartigas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2026 22:23:19 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Being University President Gets You Secret Service. Tenure Doesn&#8217;t. Dear Magicians, Marc Tessier-Lavigne resigned as Stanford&#8217;s president in 2023. The investigating panel found no evidence he manipulated data or knew his labs were doing it. He kept his faculty position. He&#8217;s still there. Claudine Gay resigned as Harvard&#8217;s president in January 2024. Harvard&#8217;s own review found &#8220;a few instances of inadequate citation&#8221; — explicitly short of research misconduct. She kept her tenure. This fall she&#8217;s back in the classroom. Both wore the tenure vest. Both got shot at. Both are still standing, and drawing HUGE salaries because someone actually checked whether the bullet went through before deciding what happened next. People treat tenure like body armor that works on it’s own. Put it on, walk into the fire, survive automatically. It isn&#8217;t. A vest only works if someone runs the test. A named panel. A defined standard. A published finding that says, specifically, here is what we looked at, here is the bar, here is whether it was cleared. Gay and Tessier-Lavigne got that. The process ran. The vest held because someone confirmed it held. ​Jason Arday didn&#8217;t get the test. He was never a university president — no executive post to absorb the hit before it reached his actual academic standing, which is what tenure exists to protect in the first place. They went straight at his doctoral thesis. Liverpool John Moores, the institution that granted the degree, investigated and did not uphold the claims, calling the issues &#8220;honest and reasonable error.&#8221; Cambridge defended him forcefully as recently as June. Then, on information it has not made public, Cambridge reopened the question and Arday resigned the professorship and the fellowship before that process produced a finding either way. He was wearing the same vest Gay and Tessier-Lavigne were wearing. Nobody checked whether it worked. He had to decide whether to trust it while the shooting was still going on. This isn&#8217;t unique to universities. It&#8217;s the same failure mode boards perform on CEOs constantly, just inverted. A CEO gets fired for optics, for a bad quarter, for a board that wants a scapegoat — and still walks out with severance, vested equity, sometimes a board seat somewhere else next year, because a contract exists and somebody is legally obligated to honor it whether or not the firing was fair. Tenure is supposed to be the academic version of that contract. But a contract nobody enforces isn&#8217;t protection but seemingly it&#8217;s a promise you find out was empty exactly when you needed it to be real. Tenure was never the academic version of the Secret Service that protect the actual President (of the USA, not the University). It&#8217;s a vest of sorts&#8230; real protection, but protection that still requires you to check the seams before deciding whether you&#8217;re safe to keep wearing it. Gay and Tessier-Lavigne found out the vest worked because the detail showed up and did its job before either of them had to bet a career on faith alone. Arday never got the detail. He had to decide whether to trust the vest while the shooting was still going on, with no one confirming it would hold. So tell me what form of protection are you relying on without fully stress testing it? And until next time, have a M.A.G.I.C. Week, Brian Appearance Great crowd + questions for my friend, Annie Jacobsen, last Thursday on beautiful Coronado Island. Take the Biological War scenario quiz &#38; get prepared to find out why I think we need to stop apologizing for humanity&#8217;s greatness. Genius The great promise of AI for science may be fewer papers, not more. Let machines do the literature searches, code checks, documentation, and reproducibility drudgery. Scientists should spend their scarce human attention deciding which questions deserve to exist in the first place. Publishing is getting cheap. Understanding is not. I enjoyed this piece in nature magazine about this crisi-tunity. Image Physicists have tried to figure out the mathematics of whirlpools long ago. Now, we have finally built a telescope powerful enough to watch the same mathematics happening on the surface of the Sun. The interesting part is that these tiny swirls may help twist magnetic-field lines, transport energy upward, contribute to solar flares, and perhaps help heat the Sun’s extraordinarily hot corona. Conversation Latest on Into The Impossible https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZBd7etwRUI John Martinis: The Physicist Who Proved Schrödinger&#8217;s Cat Could Be Real I sat down with the 2025 Nobel Laureate in Physics, who built a circuit with billions of electrons tunneling in a single quantum state, proving that quantum mechanics doesn&#8217;t stop working just because something gets big. We cover the systematic errors that nearly derailed his early work (with a striking parallel to the discovery of the cosmic microwave background), what it felt like to achieve quantum supremacy at Google, and why he was demoted right after his team&#8217;s biggest win, prompting him to leave and found his own quantum computing startup, Qolab. We close on wave function collapse, the many worlds interpretation (his take is refreshingly blunt), and his advice for chasing the impossible. Subscribe to my podcast! More than 2M downloads! Advertisement By popular demand, and for my mental health 😳, I am starting a paid “Office Hours” where you all can connect with me for the low price of $19.99 per hour. I get a lot of requests for coffee, to meet with folks one on one, to read people’s Theories of Everything etc. Due to extreme work overload, I’m only able to engage directly with supporters who show an ongoing commitment to dialogue—which is why I host a monthly Zoom session exclusively for patrons in the $19.99/month tier. It’s also available for paid Members of my Youtube channel at the Cosmic Office Hours level (also $19.99/month). Join here and see you in my office hours!]]></description>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Being University President Gets You Secret Service. Tenure Doesn't.</h2>				</div>
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																<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/jason-arday-cambridge-professor-eric-kaufmann-trump-college-funding-b3030432.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">
							<img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="640" height="427" src="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/MMM-8-10.png" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-8440" alt="" srcset="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/MMM-8-10.png 640w, https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/MMM-8-10-300x200.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" />								</a>
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									<p>Dear Magicians,</p><p>Marc Tessier-Lavigne resigned as Stanford&#8217;s president in 2023. The investigating panel found no evidence he manipulated data or knew his labs were doing it. He kept his faculty position. He&#8217;s still there.</p><p>Claudine Gay resigned as Harvard&#8217;s president in January 2024. Harvard&#8217;s own review found &#8220;a few instances of inadequate citation&#8221; — explicitly short of research misconduct. She kept her tenure. This fall she&#8217;s back in the classroom.</p><p>Both wore the tenure vest. Both got shot at. Both are still standing, and drawing HUGE salaries because someone actually checked whether the bullet went through before deciding what happened next.</p><p>People treat tenure like body armor that works on it’s own. Put it on, walk into the fire, survive automatically. It isn&#8217;t. A vest only works if someone runs the test. A named panel. A defined standard. A published finding that says, specifically, here is what we looked at, here is the bar, here is whether it was cleared. Gay and Tessier-Lavigne got that. The process ran. The vest held because someone confirmed it held.</p><p>​<a class="ck-link" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/jason-arday-cambridge-professor-eric-kaufmann-trump-college-funding-b3030432.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Jason Arday</a> didn&#8217;t get the test.</p><p>He was never a university president — no executive post to absorb the hit before it reached his actual academic standing, which is what tenure exists to protect in the first place. They went straight at his doctoral thesis. Liverpool John Moores, the institution that granted the degree, investigated and did not uphold the claims, calling the issues &#8220;honest and reasonable error.&#8221; Cambridge defended him forcefully as recently as June. Then, on information it has not made public, Cambridge reopened the question and Arday resigned the professorship and the fellowship before that process produced a finding either way.</p><p>He was wearing the same vest Gay and Tessier-Lavigne were wearing. Nobody checked whether it worked. He had to decide whether to trust it while the shooting was still going on.</p><p>This isn&#8217;t unique to universities. It&#8217;s the same failure mode boards perform on CEOs constantly, just inverted. A CEO gets fired for optics, for a bad quarter, for a board that wants a scapegoat — and still walks out with severance, vested equity, sometimes a board seat somewhere else next year, because a contract exists and somebody is legally obligated to honor it whether or not the firing was fair.</p><p>Tenure is supposed to be the academic version of that contract. But a contract nobody enforces isn&#8217;t protection but seemingly it&#8217;s a promise you find out was empty exactly when you needed it to be real.</p><p>Tenure was never the academic version of the Secret Service that protect the actual President (of the USA, not the University). It&#8217;s a vest of sorts&#8230; real protection, but protection that still requires you to check the seams before deciding whether you&#8217;re safe to keep wearing it.</p><p>Gay and Tessier-Lavigne found out the vest worked because the detail showed up and did its job before either of them had to bet a career on faith alone. Arday never got the detail. He had to decide whether to trust the vest while the shooting was still going on, with no one confirming it would hold.</p><p>So tell me what form of protection are you relying on without fully stress testing it?</p><p>And until next time, have a M.A.G.I.C. Week,</p><p>Brian</p>								</div>
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									<p>Great crowd + questions for my friend, Annie Jacobsen, last Thursday on beautiful Coronado Island.</p><p>Take the <a class="ck-link" href="https://war.manus.space/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Biological War scenario quiz</a> &amp; get prepared to find out why I think we need to stop apologizing for humanity&#8217;s greatness.</p>								</div>
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									<p>The great promise of AI for science may be fewer papers, not more.</p><p>Let machines do the literature searches, code checks, documentation, and reproducibility drudgery. Scientists should spend their scarce human attention deciding which questions deserve to exist in the first place. Publishing is getting cheap. Understanding is not.</p><p>I enjoyed this piece in <a class="ck-link" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-026-02900-y" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">nature</a> magazine about this crisi-tunity.</p>								</div>
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									<p>Physicists have tried to figure out the mathematics of whirlpools long ago.</p><p>Now, we have finally built a <a class="ck-link" href="https://physics.aps.org/articles/v19/112" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">telescope powerful enough to watch the same mathematics happening on the surface of the Sun</a>.</p><p>The interesting part is that these tiny swirls may help twist magnetic-field lines, transport energy upward, contribute to solar flares, and perhaps help heat the Sun’s extraordinarily hot corona.</p>								</div>
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		<title>Nobel Winning Physicist John Martinis: Why I Walked Away From Google Quantum Computing</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/nobel-john-martinis/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2026 21:19:50 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://briankeating.com/?p=8412</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Nobel Winning Physicist John Martinis: Why I Walked Away From Google Quantum Computing Transcript Brian Keating:Today we&#8217;re joined with one of my heroes. It&#8217;s not every day you get to talk to somebody who not only, you know, is such a great contributor to physics and has been inspiring not only the work that I do, but my whole collaboration is basically enabled by work that John and his collaborators did over the years. But he&#8217;s also, you know, once we say a mensch, he&#8217;s known for his teaching, for his group building. You&#8217;re just kind of the physicist physicist. So thank you for joining us. John Martinis:Well, that&#8217;s very kind. Not everyone feels that way, but I appreciate the kind words. Brian Keating:You&#8217;re now The 26th Nobel Prize winner I&#8217;ve had on the podcast. Every, every 9 multiples of 9, I write a book featuring wisdom, and I hope the, the 3rd version will come out with you in the coming years. Well, I&#8217;ll let you know about how that progresses, but I wanna take us to that October morning last year. I was teaching quantum mechanics that day, advanced quantum mechanics with perturbation theory, and I said, a guy I know just won the Nobel Prize. What was that like? What was the, what was the 2nd thing that went through your mind when you got the phone call at whatever time it was? John Martinis:Well, I actually didn&#8217;t get the phone call. The phone is way across the house, but my wife was up late reading and she heard the phone ringing, but she figured she&#8217;d get it in the next day. She looked at her email and there was a bunch of congratulations. So she knew about it, but she knows that I need my sleep, especially, you know, the next day when you, you know, you have to be on the whole day. So she waited till about 6 o&#8217;clock. There were reporters who showed up soon after that. So it was actually better because my wife woke me up, but she was very clever about it. She tapped me on the shoulder and said there were reporters coming over. John Martinis:And I realized, oh, it&#8217;s the beginning of October. So I opened my computer and, and, you know, saw Let me share something a tiny bit personal. There are things called Nobel symposiums where they look at a field and see if the field is noteworthy and look at people in the, you know, leaders in the field and the like. So you kind of understand a little bit that you might be on some kind of list. Okay. For me, that&#8217;s the biggest honor because the Nobel Prize is just so crazy unlikely, right? Just being invited to that is really very special. And And then for some years, you know, I&#8217;d wake up in beginning October. It&#8217;s like, oh, okay. John Martinis:And it&#8217;s just so wrong to be disappointed by this because, so after the years, you know, I just stopped kind of, I knew, well, it&#8217;s beginning October, but I stopped really thinking about it. That&#8217;s why my wife didn&#8217;t know. We didn&#8217;t talk about this at all. Right. Because it&#8217;s just, okay. You know, whatever happens and it&#8217;s actually better that way. Yeah. Brian Keating:There&#8217;s a joke I sometimes will, you know, pull out on October 1st at 2 in the morning. I&#8217;ll say, I&#8217;m working on my best, you know, Swedish accent to cause somebody I don&#8217;t like a heart attack. We are calling from the Swedish Royal Academy. John Martinis:Yeah, I&#8217;ve heard people get pranks like that. Brian Keating:Well, yours isn&#8217;t a prank. And the only thing that frustrated me is that I was talking about, you know, quantum tunneling, but I was talking about single electron tunneling and even nuclear tunneling. So you wanted for macroscopic tunneling. What was the impetus for— obviously you didn&#8217;t set out to win a Nobel Prize. Talk us through the history of why you thought macroscopic effects would manifest themselves instead of just the already mysterious microscopic tunneling effects? John Martinis:Yeah. So this experiment in line of research was very much motivated by Anthony Leggett. You can just go back to the Schrödinger cat paradox where you do a microscopic atom decay that&#8217;s connected up. So the atom decays, it kills the cat, and then, you know, okay, before you open the box, is the cat in some dead and alive state? And okay, I think there, for me, there are ways to answer this that are very sensible. But Leggett pointed out that there actually is no experimental evidence that macroscopic entities, especially a cat, can obey quantum mechanics. And he said, there&#8217;s— if there&#8217;s no evidence, we should be looking for evidence as a way to test quantum mechanics. And he came up with the idea of these superconducting circuits where you have a macroscopic number of electrons that are tunneling through the junction. For me, you know, as a young student, you look at quantum mechanics, it&#8217;s really wonderful. John Martinis:My personal hobby was electronics. I joined John Clarke&#8217;s group because he was doing things on quantum noise. Okay. And thinking about this. And for me, it was the most natural experiment to want to do. I&#8217;m surprised that there weren&#8217;t 30 other groups doing it. At the point now, everyone can understand that. But back in the mid-&#8217;80s, the idea of quantum information and doing these tests wasn&#8217;t as popularized as, as it is now. John Martinis:So for me, it was the most fascinating experiment. I thought it could be done cleanly. You know, obviously John Clarke, you know, was moving in this direction. Michel Devoreg came over. And for me, it was, you know, a perfect thesis experiment. And I&#8217;m going to say it was also very groundbreaking because Then John&#8217;s group, you know, we understood how to measure noise in these devices, but to,]]></description>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Nobel Winning Physicist John Martinis: Why I Walked Away From Google Quantum Computing</h2>				</div>
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									<h2><strong>Transcript</strong></h2><p>Brian Keating:<br />Today we&#8217;re joined with one of my heroes. It&#8217;s not every day you get to talk to somebody who not only, you know, is such a great contributor to physics and has been inspiring not only the work that I do, but my whole collaboration is basically enabled by work that John and his collaborators did over the years. But he&#8217;s also, you know, once we say a mensch, he&#8217;s known for his teaching, for his group building. You&#8217;re just kind of the physicist physicist. So thank you for joining us.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Well, that&#8217;s very kind. Not everyone feels that way, but I appreciate the kind words.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You&#8217;re now The 26th Nobel Prize winner I&#8217;ve had on the podcast. Every, every 9 multiples of 9, I write a book featuring wisdom, and I hope the, the 3rd version will come out with you in the coming years. Well, I&#8217;ll let you know about how that progresses, but I wanna take us to that October morning last year. I was teaching quantum mechanics that day, advanced quantum mechanics with perturbation theory, and I said, a guy I know just won the Nobel Prize. What was that like? What was the, what was the 2nd thing that went through your mind when you got the phone call at whatever time it was?</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Well, I actually didn&#8217;t get the phone call. The phone is way across the house, but my wife was up late reading and she heard the phone ringing, but she figured she&#8217;d get it in the next day. She looked at her email and there was a bunch of congratulations. So she knew about it, but she knows that I need my sleep, especially, you know, the next day when you, you know, you have to be on the whole day. So she waited till about 6 o&#8217;clock. There were reporters who showed up soon after that. So it was actually better because my wife woke me up, but she was very clever about it. She tapped me on the shoulder and said there were reporters coming over.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />And I realized, oh, it&#8217;s the beginning of October. So I opened my computer and, and, you know, saw Let me share something a tiny bit personal. There are things called Nobel symposiums where they look at a field and see if the field is noteworthy and look at people in the, you know, leaders in the field and the like. So you kind of understand a little bit that you might be on some kind of list. Okay. For me, that&#8217;s the biggest honor because the Nobel Prize is just so crazy unlikely, right? Just being invited to that is really very special. And And then for some years, you know, I&#8217;d wake up in beginning October. It&#8217;s like, oh, okay.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />And it&#8217;s just so wrong to be disappointed by this because, so after the years, you know, I just stopped kind of, I knew, well, it&#8217;s beginning October, but I stopped really thinking about it. That&#8217;s why my wife didn&#8217;t know. We didn&#8217;t talk about this at all. Right. Because it&#8217;s just, okay. You know, whatever happens and it&#8217;s actually better that way. Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />There&#8217;s a joke I sometimes will, you know, pull out on October 1st at 2 in the morning. I&#8217;ll say, I&#8217;m working on my best, you know, Swedish accent to cause somebody I don&#8217;t like a heart attack. We are calling from the Swedish Royal Academy.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Yeah, I&#8217;ve heard people get pranks like that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Well, yours isn&#8217;t a prank. And the only thing that frustrated me is that I was talking about, you know, quantum tunneling, but I was talking about single electron tunneling and even nuclear tunneling. So you wanted for macroscopic tunneling. What was the impetus for— obviously you didn&#8217;t set out to win a Nobel Prize. Talk us through the history of why you thought macroscopic effects would manifest themselves instead of just the already mysterious microscopic tunneling effects?</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Yeah. So this experiment in line of research was very much motivated by Anthony Leggett. You can just go back to the Schrödinger cat paradox where you do a microscopic atom decay that&#8217;s connected up. So the atom decays, it kills the cat, and then, you know, okay, before you open the box, is the cat in some dead and alive state? And okay, I think there, for me, there are ways to answer this that are very sensible. But Leggett pointed out that there actually is no experimental evidence that macroscopic entities, especially a cat, can obey quantum mechanics. And he said, there&#8217;s— if there&#8217;s no evidence, we should be looking for evidence as a way to test quantum mechanics. And he came up with the idea of these superconducting circuits where you have a macroscopic number of electrons that are tunneling through the junction. For me, you know, as a young student, you look at quantum mechanics, it&#8217;s really wonderful.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />My personal hobby was electronics. I joined John Clarke&#8217;s group because he was doing things on quantum noise. Okay. And thinking about this. And for me, it was the most natural experiment to want to do. I&#8217;m surprised that there weren&#8217;t 30 other groups doing it. At the point now, everyone can understand that. But back in the mid-&#8217;80s, the idea of quantum information and doing these tests wasn&#8217;t as popularized as, as it is now.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />So for me, it was the most fascinating experiment. I thought it could be done cleanly. You know, obviously John Clarke, you know, was moving in this direction. Michel Devoreg came over. And for me, it was, you know, a perfect thesis experiment. And I&#8217;m going to say it was also very groundbreaking because Then John&#8217;s group, you know, we understood how to measure noise in these devices, but to, you know, build a system and engineer it and think about the physics combining microwave engineering and quantum mechanics and figuring out how to deal with the noise and the like to build a clean experiment was just really fundamental and groundbreaking. And of course, that&#8217;s, you know, I find that, you know, wonderfully exciting. Okay.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />To just try to figure all that out.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Why did you start off with a Josephson junction? Maybe first we&#8217;ll explain what it is. And keep in mind, my audience is highly technical, very competent, and I&#8217;ve tried to have Brian on the podcast as a fellow Brian. He&#8217;s gone in interesting directions, shall we say, in consciousness and other kind of fields, very different from what he did as a young, very young man when he won the Nobel Prize for his work. But tell us, why Josephson junction? Why not a quantum dot or trapped ion? What made you start with that?</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Well, first of all, the Josephson junction is a macroscopic system where you have a macroscopic number of, you know, Cooper pairs, electrons, paired electrons tunneling through the device. And to test the idea of whether macroscopic variables obey quantum mechanics, you need that. A quantum dot and an atom, they&#8217;re kind of single atomic systems, whereas this was very clearly macroscopic. And, you know, that&#8217;s why Leggett proposed it, and that being in the superconducting field with John Clarke&#8217;s group, that&#8217;s of course why we did it. Now at the time, we didn&#8217;t know if the Josephson junction was a clean system. In many physical systems, especially a macroscopic system, there can be dirt effects, other things that go wrong that, you know, may cause it not to work as well as you would like. And, you know, at the time we didn&#8217;t know any of that, so we just forged ahead. But I would say the reason I&#8217;m talking to you today about the Nobel Prize is it turned out that it was a clean system.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />And this was figured out by many, many people over decades of work, you know, testing it. I mean, we laid the foundation for understanding how to do that, but building these systems properly, you know, took a while for a whole lot of people to figure out.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What strikes me as so, you know, kind of magical and beautiful is that you guys ended up seeing you know, discretization and quantization in sort of spectral features. And it&#8217;s exactly reminiscent of what Balmer saw, you know, 60 years before the invention of quantum mechanics. Have you ever thought about what it was like to be him? I mean, grappling with something that wouldn&#8217;t be determined or even predictable for many decades. Did you ever have that kind of inkling of like, we&#8217;re in this weird, mysterious territory? Or was it, if we keep putting one foot in front of the other, we&#8217;re going to get to some goal that we&#8217;ve set out for ourselves?</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Well, that&#8217;s a really great question because The way we were thinking about it and we started it, John Clarke&#8217;s a serious experimentalist and I was a new student. But what he and we decided very early on is we had to measure the parameters of the system in order to do a careful test of the theory. And the obvious thing to do was to put on microwaves and have a resonant phenomenon and see that resonant phenomenon as a way to measure the oscillation frequency of the system, which is a very fundamental parameter. And what was interesting is classically, I set up an analog simulator in about, I think, a day or two and put in noise and then showed that indeed you can see some kind of resonant effect. So very early on, even though we knew about that, we had to do tests in doing it. Now, of course, you know, as we did this, we were quite interested in what would be the quantum effects. Now, what happens classically, both in an atom and in our system, is that this oscillates in this nonlinear well. It has a spectrum of frequencies, one frequency when it&#8217;s low and a lower frequency when it&#8217;s high.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />So just like when people talk about electrons circling the nucleus, classically, there&#8217;s a range of frequencies that it would emit light over. Of course, what you saw was quantized energy levels and quantized light, which, you know, it was clear we could see in the system. So I would say the fact that you see quantized oscillations is a key feature of quantum mechanics. And I think that what we were able to see is like the smoking gun thing that you&#8217;re doing that. Now, it could be that you have to realize, if you&#8217;re really being careful about this, it could be that there&#8217;s resonances in the circuit you&#8217;re connecting it to. So you have to be careful about, you know, claiming that. And that&#8217;s why we did a bunch of experiments detailed that are in the papers, but no one ever talks about to say that we had a well-defined experiment without these resonances. The resonances we saw made sense in terms of the physics of the, of the system and the like.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />But in the end, that was a key observation. Now, of course, what was also interesting is Leggett talked about what happened to tunneling when you had dissipation. That&#8217;s very new physics, which you normally don&#8217;t see in electrons and nucleus. And eventually we were able to do those experiments really well and show that that theory made sense too. So there was a whole series of things we were able to do because it was really well engineered, good connection of microwave engineering to quantum accounting.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />One of the things I love to point out to my younger listeners, readers, and viewers in my books when I interview titanic physicists such as yourself is when you do the thing that you really didn&#8217;t think you would have to do. You just mentioned it. You can have this collective phenomenon from alternative effects rather than the thing you&#8217;re looking for, and those are called systematic effects. And I typically tell my students, anyone can get the right answer. We can get the Hubble constant, and it could be beautiful, but the real determinant of whether or not you&#8217;re a good scientist is how you account for the things that you could be wrong about, right?</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Yeah, exactly. You know, and the fundamental thing about nature is you can never prove anything about nature. You can disprove your theories, but you can never prove it because something else could be explaining it. But what you do as an experimentalist is measure enough parameters and do enough of the check experiments that if it&#8217;s another theory, it would have to be really kind of You know, a crazy, not simple theory. And, and that&#8217;s what you do. And that&#8217;s, for example, why we were measuring the parameters. Okay. The other thing to, to realize, and I talk about, I like to explain this to the students, is in the beginning we did some experiments at, you know, 1 Kelvin to 4 Kelvin to see what was going on.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />And the data didn&#8217;t make sense at all. And it was because— we were seeing noise. And very early on, we just did something. We compared it in a way that was really kind of tricky at the time and didn&#8217;t make sense. And then we started saying, well, okay, we&#8217;re going to have to filter it right and the like. And once we understood the microwave engineering, microwave filtering, we redesigned the experiment pretty quickly. And then all the data started making sense. Okay.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />So there were some internal checks that you, you know, you have to look at very carefully. There were a few prior experiments that hadn&#8217;t really done that properly. And I think the physics community appreciated all those checks and being able to do a beautiful experiment because of that. And, you know, all good experiments are like that. They&#8217;re well-designed, and then you think about things can go wrong, and you figure that out.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, it reminds me, there was a scientist named Ed Ohm who worked at Bell Labs on the exact same Holmdel antenna as Penzias and Wilson. You probably know this story. And he actually measured the BMB, and he attributed it to a systematic error. He basically said it&#8217;s a systematic error, or it&#8217;s excess noise, or all the atmospheric contributions add cumulatively and they don&#8217;t cancel out. And then Penzias and Wilson said, well, let&#8217;s do a calibration. Let&#8217;s measure that with a liquid nitrogen chopped Dickey switch load.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Yeah, yeah, yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That won them the Nobel Prize. But he had actually discovered it, you know, 3 years earlier in the same data. But that&#8217;s, that&#8217;s exactly right. And what you said is so important that we can&#8217;t prove things on the physical side. We&#8217;re not mathematicians. You know, mathematicians can prove 1 1 2. It takes 200 pages of piano algorithms and all these other things. But it kind of reminds me of what Eugene Wigner, another Nobel laureate, said once.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He said the mathematics is sort of unreasonably effective. And, and I think about that and I kind of have narrowed it down. I say that the square root is unreasonably effective because in classical mechanics you can make the Poisson bracket, you can make the commutator of momentum and position, right? And it&#8217;s zero, right? It doesn&#8217;t matter if you measure momentum first or position first, you get zero. But if you add the square root of negative 1, You get the Poisson bracket for the Heisenberg relationships, and those do not commute, right? What&#8217;s the weirdest thing about quantum mechanics to you?</p><p>John Martinis:<br />The weirdest thing. It&#8217;s really a complicated phenomenon, and it takes until at least your third year, typically, as an undergraduate, and then you take it more. And I&#8217;m going to say, after doing this for many decades, I kind of understand it fairly well at this point. But You know, it&#8217;s complicated, but at the same time, there&#8217;s this mathematical artifice where you can understand it well. And, you know, it&#8217;s the basis of many fundamental standards. So it&#8217;s extremely accurate too. It&#8217;s both complicated but understandable, unintuitive, but given enough time, to me, it&#8217;s intuitive right now. It&#8217;s kind of strange.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />And, you know, that it&#8217;s just a very deep theory and it&#8217;s kind of amazing. that nature works at this very, very deep level. And like I say, the other thing is, which is what our Nobel is about, it&#8217;s not just the physics of the small or fundamental particles. It&#8217;s actually a generic physics that everything can obey. It&#8217;s just really hard for ordinary objects to get into some parameter space where you can see it. So it&#8217;s actually a generic phenomenon that&#8217;s all, you know, that And potentially could be all around us.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And tunneling is that way too. And what really kind of surprised me about ordinary, you know, kind of electron tunneling is we have this kind of myth in both technology and in pure science that you look into the equations and then you invent the technology, right? So like, you know, Bardeen and the transistor, we couldn&#8217;t have invented it unless we understood quantum mechanics. When in reality, I think, I mean, you know this much better than me and I want to get your opinion. But, you know, kind of if you look at the first transistor, it looks like, you know, a chunk of rock, like the germanium, and a chewing gum and a coat hanger. And it&#8217;s all put together. I want to ask you, we&#8217;re going to talk a lot about quantum computers in a little bit.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Oh, and by the way, our first experiment in Berkeley was carefully designed. Okay. And, you know, but if you look at what&#8217;s being made now, it&#8217;s, you know, it&#8217;s like, it&#8217;s like the Bell Labs transistor. But, you know, there&#8217;s some physics there. Okay. But that&#8217;s what you have to do when you&#8217;re first exploring something, is you do some experiment that&#8217;s kind of minimal and you can get it to work. And then once you understand the principles behind it, you can then engineer it and look deeper and deeper into it. And that&#8217;s what&#8217;s beautiful about physics, is there&#8217;s all these levels that you have to understand to get it to work.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What&#8217;s been the most, you know, kind of enabling technology on the STEP contributor to the work that you did? Was it the advances in superconductors? Was it the kind of fluxonium, the 3D cavities? What were kind of like stepping stones on the way to the revolution that you guys worked on and still do work on? What was some of the most important keystones?</p><p>John Martinis:<br />So what happened at the time is that we understood that this was a microwave experiment, and we went to the astronomy department and got their S-parameter meter and started understanding than reading microwave books. And in the end, what we did and the field did is combine the concepts of microwave engineering with the concepts of quantum mechanics. And it&#8217;s interesting because microwave engineering has wave phenomenon and resonance like quantum mechanics does. So they&#8217;re actually somewhat close. I also always think that you can understand about 80, 90% of our superconducting quantum devices with microwave engineering. And then you have to throw in quantum mechanics at the appropriate point to do that. It kind of reminds me, you have Maxwell&#8217;s equations, but in terms of understanding electrical circuit and the like, you use circuit diagrams. Okay.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />And what you&#8217;ve done is you&#8217;ve taken something very complete and almost abstract and then brought it down to a level where we can build, do complex engineering with it. And that&#8217;s kind of what we were able— what we started in that experiment. And of course, we explored that for many decades. And now, you know, we&#8217;re doing it and we&#8217;re still— I&#8217;m still exploring that in terms of materials and other concepts that we have here. Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And, you know, kind of makes me think about a statement I think you made once, you know, that people seem to hate decoherence until they need it. So Without decoherence, like friction, you know, if you&#8217;ve ever, you know, kissed a loved one, right? You need some friction, right? Life wouldn&#8217;t be fun without friction. But tell me, is decoherence necessary, you know, for these devices, or is it purely a nuisance that must be obliterated?</p><p>John Martinis:<br />I&#8217;m going to say decoherence is always here in the real world. And the problem is, if you take the Schrödinger equations, that&#8217;s just, you know, a pure, simple physics without decoherence. And of course, people know how to put in decoherence and do that. And it&#8217;s kind of like, you know, how do you understand thermodynamics without, you know, entropy? Okay. You know, you have the basic equations which are conservative, and then you introduce entropy, and then you could see the real world. And this is what happens with quantum mechanics. And also for quantum computing, It first, it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s a very practical, important thing because it limits your quantum computer. But also when you start doing things like measuring real circuits and let&#8217;s say doing error correction, in error correction, you&#8217;re removing the randomness or the entropy of that.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />And in some sense you need decoherence. And I would say decoherence, in my view, is kind of tied to how things get measured. Okay. And if you look at Exploring the Quantum by Ramon Den Haroche, it gives you a good description of that. That&#8217;s very integral to quantum mechanics. It sounds like the ugly side of it, but it&#8217;s actually quite an important part of it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />At some level, we have to always connect to the classical world, right? So there&#8217;s inevitability of dealing with classical effects. And so how do you guard against, you know, kind of these systematic biases? Like for us, let&#8217;s just take measuring a superconductor, right? So if you want to measure the superconductor, you could be very careful. You could do all the 4-point measurements you like. And you probably have been in a lab with my late great friend Paul Richards from UC Berkeley, and he was just the most careful person. And he wouldn&#8217;t let you do a measurement, you know, that wasn&#8217;t at least 4 points in this design. But at some level, you know, can you actually prove that these things have zero resistance in the junctions? Can you prove, you know, that the flux is purely being, you know, quantized in the way that the, you know, Leggett and other equations suggest that they are? Or do you always have to— Ah, we kind of have to— we know it&#8217;s not purely quantum mechanical because we have to these devices, or is it truly manifest that they behave as they should be purely quantum mechanically?</p><p>John Martinis:<br />It&#8217;s always a matter that there are certain limits where the flux will jump. Okay. And you could be, let&#8217;s say, near to the transition temperature. And then, and then you&#8217;ll see that flux is not quantized, or at least it jumps in its quantization. Physicists have been exploring this for a long time. In fact, In fact, the experiment I did in the &#8217;80s was all about how, you know, when you put a current up to the critical current, at the critical current, it then looks like a normal metal. So it&#8217;s superconducting. And then when you hit the critical current, goes normal.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Well, it happens a little bit before that, either due to thermal fluctuations or due to macroscopic quantum tunneling. And, you know, it&#8217;s an example of physicists understanding the limit. Now you can look at the limits of these various things and you can understand that it should be exponentially small. For example, for a superconductor, there are things, excitations called quasiparticles that limit the superconductivity, but there&#8217;s a gap and it&#8217;s e to the minus delta U over kT. And if you do the calculation, that&#8217;s tiny. But the problem is, is you have stray infrared light in a real experiment. and then generates the quasiparticle. So it&#8217;s not exponentially small.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />So I would say, you know, physicists are great at figuring out all these details and figuring out what&#8217;s wrong. And over the years, then, you know, this is why it took, you know, decades to figure all this out. Lots of experiments happened looking at all the details and not just taking the pure theory, but thinking about all possible ways that things can go wrong, and then you engineer around it. For the infrared case, you&#8217;d have to do very careful shielding, which we didn&#8217;t do at first, and then we realized we had to do that. And then there&#8217;s still a little bit of residuals, but we can deal with that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So I wanna make a fairly heretical claim, and then I want you to demolish it and put me in my place. But my, my claim is that no one&#8217;s ever looked at an equation and out pops a technology from purely contemplating it, except perhaps quantum computing. We&#8217;ll get there in a second. But if If you look at the transistor, I just said, you know, they, they weren&#8217;t like looking at, you know, the, the Schrödinger equation saying, oh, we&#8217;re gonna get this technology if we put the chewing gum, the coat hanger, and the, you know, piece of germanium together. MRI came, you know, from Bloch&#8217;s equations being, being understood. Laser, maser came from population inversion, which was Townes&#8217;s kind of guess. Is the quantum computer perhaps the first technology in history that really came from the equation outward, or is it gonna be you know, sort of along the lines of, as I said, you know, the high-temperature superconductor. Really, we didn&#8217;t understand the theory until, you know, my late great professor Leon Cooper writes.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What do you make of this claim that I&#8217;m making that we don&#8217;t look into the equations and then the technology comes out? We experiment, guess, and then eventually technology comes and then we backfill in the explanation.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Well, I haven&#8217;t studied this and it sounds like you&#8217;ve had, but I&#8217;ve been said, talked to, I&#8217;ve talked to theorists about this and they say it&#8217;s very rare that a theory kind of precedes an experimental observation. And the one example they give is the Josephson effect where Brian Josephson understood this. And basically you have to do the calculation to second order in order to understand what the superconductivity does. But the way this all came about, it was very murky at the time. And You know, if you look at it, John Bardeen gave Brian Josephson a very hard time with this, which is actually kind of amazing because superconductivity in BCS is a second-order calculation. Okay. People hadn&#8217;t put that all together at the time. So that was one of the few times, I&#8217;m sure it&#8217;s not the only one, but the few times where it preceded it and the theorist was given a hard time.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />But of course, the Nobel Prize. That meant that it was very strange. And I would say quantum computing, I hadn&#8217;t thought about that, but I&#8217;m— that&#8217;s right. This came from very theoretical concepts. And then, you know, people work through it experimentally once, you know, they understood it would be interesting to do that. Let me tell you what the problem with quantum computing is, is if you abstract it away to qubits, Okay. You abstract away to idealize qubits and the Schrödinger equation, and then it looks very simple and very nice. Okay.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />But the problem is real experimental systems are much more complicated. There&#8217;s all these dirt effects. And it&#8217;s kind of easy to think that, okay, you can just build that without having to go through and all the, you know, understand what&#8217;s going on. So So I like to say the best qubit out there is what I call the paper qubit, a theory qubit. And it&#8217;s only by doing the experiments do you know that everything is wrong. Everything&#8217;s wrong with it. And it usually takes decades to figure this out. Okay.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />And it&#8217;s not a magical thing. The other thing is a lot of the efforts are actually headed by theorists. If you, if you look at it, not all of them, but a lot of them are.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />And that&#8217;s because it&#8217;s very easy to abstract this away. I actually think, again, history will borne this out. I actually think that this is a little bit of a problem because in actually to build a thing requires you to, you know, really understand all the problems. Okay? So by abstracting all the problems away, you can be very optimistic and, you know, do things. But it&#8217;s only, you know, going into lab and realizing what all the problems are and then fixing them that you can actually build it because physical qubits are not perfect by any means. Some people claim that their technology is great. There are always problems. Okay.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />That&#8217;s just the way that nature wants to fight back. But I think in the end we can, we can fight back harder.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah. Now I want to talk about quantum computing. And again, I tend to be a little more cheeky and provocative, so don&#8217;t be afraid to, you know, put me in my place. But in 1981, you know, Feynman didn&#8217;t say quantum computers are gonna replace, you know, your desktop, your MacBook, your laptop, your Chromebook, whatever. He said nature is quantum, so we should probably be using, you know, quantum systems to do computation. I always joke, and, and I&#8217;ve done work with a firm called Quantum Rings, which does a lot of software and simulations of quantum mechanical computers. But I, I kind of joke sometimes that, you know, quantum computers are the best system to model how quantum computers work, A, and then, you know, they&#8217;re good at—</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Quantum systems in general, yes. Quantum systems.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />clear, you know, sort of like an answer, you know, to a question maybe. And again, I&#8217;m saying this with, with probably lack of humility, but what are quantum computers really gonna be good for? And you can&#8217;t use the words, you know, cryptography, and you can&#8217;t use Lagrangians or material science or quantum computers. So outside of that incredibly impressive domain of portfolio, I mean, it&#8217;s like if you said my computer can only be used for doing, you know, spreadsheets, word processing, and, and internet browsing, right? I mean, it could do a lot more, a general computer. So what can a quantum computer do? Besides those 3 things that are very important and very hyped up?</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Yeah, I&#8217;m really interested in, partly because I&#8217;m a physicist, okay, is quantum computers modeling, simulating other quantum systems. And, you know, there&#8217;s a huge amount that it can help with there because right now a lot of classical computers or supercomputers are used to do so. And, you know, you can only model something so big. Before you run out of memory because quantum computing is hard and run out of speed. Okay. And then you have to do approximation methods, which are fantastic, but, you know, they only work. And in fact, a lot of it is that, you know, certain approximations work for this problem and that problem, and you have to compare with physical systems to kind of choose that. It&#8217;s a little bit cheating, but, you know, okay, it&#8217;s very practical and that&#8217;s good.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />That&#8217;s what I&#8217;m, I&#8217;m really interested in. And, you know, just the example, I don&#8217;t know if this is a good example, but we all are interested in rare earths now, let&#8217;s say for electric motors and electrification of transportation system, et cetera, et cetera. But they&#8217;re rare and there&#8217;s a supply chain issue there. And I&#8217;m sure ecologically there could be issues with that. If you could use not so rare earths, let&#8217;s say by inventing a new chemical or process or maybe make it more ecological to mine, that&#8217;s a huge benefit to society. And you could say the same things with drug discovery and other things. I think this is actually a big application if you like academic industrial applications, but that&#8217;s more how regular computers got started. And then over time, I can imagine there could be other things, let&#8217;s say for optimization, it&#8217;s not so clear, There&#8217;s a killer application for that.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Okay. A lot of people are looking at, a lot of people are claiming things. It&#8217;s not clear whether a clever classical optimization would be good. So it kind of can be a little bit like AI where people try various things for decades before coming on some, you know, the right way to do it. I also look at that as very important. So, you know, it&#8217;s a powerful computing engine. And it&#8217;s gonna take a while to figure it out. And, you know, the quantum computers we can build right now are too small.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />If we can make them bigger and then help with the theorists to inventing the clever algorithms, I feel, you know, very confident we can do something with this. But the big problem is we&#8217;re trying to compute— compete against these huge data centers, okay? Which are getting huger and huger every day. Eventually the exponential power of a quantum computer computer can overcome that. We just have to make it big enough and be clever enough for the algorithms.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, that&#8217;s right. And that&#8217;s what you and our mutual friend, Alan Ho, who introduced me to you and is co-founder of your company, Colab. We&#8217;ll get to that in a second. But now I want to take kind of the pushback on myself. You know, I&#8217;m kind of, you know, maybe bipolar this morning, but now I&#8217;m going to make the argument that these things are incredibly powerful and perhaps with great power. I just talked to the foremost AI safety researcher in the world, Roman Yampolsky, who coined the term AI safety. And he basically says super intelligence is either almost here or about to be here, and it&#8217;s uncontrollable. It is unaccountable.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It is unverifiable. We have no control over what we just created. So I want to make that argument for quantum computers, and then I want to take us back to, you know, like 1947. You know, the government didn&#8217;t let, you know, Oppenheimer set up Oppie&#8217;s Atomic Bomb Company, you know, just selling his own little portable nuclear device, right? He kept it classified. And, you know, should they be classifying, you know, is it okay that Google, IBM, and even Colab, you know, hopefully you&#8217;re going to be just as big as them, right? So tell me, make the argument. Why shouldn&#8217;t you be regulated right now before the genie escapes the bottle as it has for superintelligent AGI?</p><p>John Martinis:<br />First of all, we&#8217;re going to learn a lot from superintelligent AI. And that&#8217;s the immediate issue to deal with. And that&#8217;s here and it&#8217;s coming. And, you know, I agree people should be thinking about this. I think we&#8217;re going to learn from that. Okay. And we should take the lessons from that and then figure out what we&#8217;re going to do. The problem with quantum computing is it&#8217;s just not here yet.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />And yet there&#8217;s this big race. And to be honest, the race is the US versus China. You look at the papers from China, they know what they&#8217;re doing. It&#8217;s a serious race. developing kind of in the wild is actually an efficient way to get things done, just like with AI happened. Okay. Now, there was a secret program within the government for quantum computing, but that&#8217;s not where the biggest developments happened. I don&#8217;t think I have to explain that to readers.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Okay. And it&#8217;s just that this competitive landscape I&#8217;ll just call it savage capitalism. Okay. Actually, it&#8217;s pretty efficient if you want to do that. In fact, I argue that the way that the projects in China is operating is maybe more savage than the capitalism in the US. I don&#8217;t know all the details, but it could be. These are very good questions and I&#8217;m concerned, but on the other hand, we&#8217;re trying to develop it in our own particular way. But we&#8217;re being very careful about who we do.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />We know that, for example, the US government is going to want us to build our quantum chip in the US. And that&#8217;s how we&#8217;re organizing the way that we do that. Some of the other more classical control that can be done worldwide with our good diplomatic partners. And we&#8217;re being a little bit careful about that. But I think it&#8217;s the Google and IBMs and where they&#8217;re really on the forefront, and I&#8217;m sure there&#8217;s a lot of discussion that goes on there.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Now, I can&#8217;t resist asking you this question. I mean, you&#8217;re the ideal person to ask. You&#8217;ve probably collapsed more wave functions than any human in history. What do you think is happening, John? Is it a collapse? Is it Copenhagen? Is it some non-unitary evolution? Is it a many-worlds branching? Tell me about your epistemology.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />What are you thinking when you do these I explicitly dislike the many-worlds interpretation because it sounds very Trumpian in the sense that you&#8217;re generating real estate. That&#8217;s, you know, that&#8217;s doing that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So I&#8217;ve never thought of that. Now he&#8217;s gonna, now he&#8217;s gonna make a good point.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />In a humorous manner. But I&#8217;m very much thinking that, you know, the measurement and the dissipation and the decoherence is what&#8217;s giving you the state collapse. And again, if you look at Exploring the Quantum, they have a very nice, elegant way to talk about how these things called pointer states are exponentially sensitive to decoherence, and a small amount of decoherence can collapse you into these measurement states. And for me, that&#8217;s the clearest explanation around. I know some people don&#8217;t like that, and that&#8217;s fine, but that&#8217;s the way that I view it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Jim Peebles once told me to shut up and measure when I asked him about some aspect of—</p><p>John Martinis:<br />If you shut up and measure, we wouldn&#8217;t have done that experiment, or people would have. So these are good questions. You need to do the experiments. And like in Exploring the Quantum, they did very nice experiments to flesh out what the theory was and to argue that this is what&#8217;s going on. So I think it&#8217;s important to study this and understand that. But for me, this is a question that has been answered via decoherence phenomenon. It&#8217;s just like not understanding entropy and thermodynamics. So to me, it&#8217;s the same kind of understanding.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Take us back to the, you know, the quantum supremacy and you had achieved this incredible result for the first time, but you soon after left Google. I&#8217;m curious, was that a blessing in disguise? I mean, it led you to co-found a company with, as I said, Alan Ho and others. It&#8217;s such a brilliant idea, this company. The point is the divorce from Google. Would you be willing to talk about that? We don&#8217;t have to, but—</p><p>John Martinis:<br />You know, after that experiment, Google decided to reorganize. And instead of being congratulated for leading this project, I was essentially demoted. Okay. And there were reasons for that that we don&#8217;t have to get into. And I tried that for about 9 months. And, you know, basically I went from the head of the hardware To, let&#8217;s say, 1 over N authority. It was very much a socialist thing, but I actually found I had negative authority after that. And if you want to understand negative authority, just think about when you had teenagers.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Okay? That&#8217;s your negative authority. And frankly, I don&#8217;t think the people in Google thought that I was that technically competent. I was okay. But you know, you can tell when people feel that way and it was just time to leave. And what happened is that was definitely lemons. Okay. I still regret everything that happened, but it&#8217;s what happened. But what I would say is working with Alan and then Robert, we figured out, well, what is it we really wanted to do? Not, you know, next year or to meet the next milestone, but if we wanted to build a million-qubit quantum computer, what would we have to do? And we really focused on the qubit manufacturing and the wiring and scaling up and we came up with a series of ideas and we published a paper on that.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />We started a company and we&#8217;re feeling really good about this and we&#8217;re doing something that&#8217;s really different than everyone else. That&#8217;s exciting. And our view is that when we get this to work, it&#8217;s very foundational shift to the field, which is great. You know, that&#8217;s what you want to do is do something important. On the other hand, it&#8217;s risky because Because the general consensus out there is that you need to fabricate the qubits with this liftoff process because it&#8217;s much cleaner and the like. Whereas you do a complicated deposition and etch, you have problems. That&#8217;s the thing. And what we&#8217;ve figured out is that&#8217;s kind of right, but you have to fabricate it in the proper way and then you can get it to work.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />And we&#8217;ve kind of figured out what that proper way is and we&#8217;re working very hard to do the steps that you need to make it very clean. And, you know, in the end, semiconductors are— no one uses liftoff. I mean, this just doesn&#8217;t work. You use deposition and etch. But of course, I don&#8217;t know, there&#8217;s billions, trillions of dollars figuring out how to get that to work. We think we understand enough now to be able to do that on a modest startup economy.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I think your approach is so fascinating. It&#8217;s a sort of a 3D printing, but, you know, massive scale. My teenager This for me. That&#8217;s one of the few things that he does for me with my negative authority.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Look, you know, young people want to do their own things. I get it, you know, and they want to break free from their family, which is what Google— what happened at Google. Normally the kids leave the house to break through and that they don&#8217;t kick the parents out of the house. But okay, you know, that was the easier thing for Google to do. And I understand that I had done things that the Google people— I&#8217;m too much like Elon Musk to work at Google. Okay, put it that way.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Well, I just note that it was exactly at that time that they went peak woke. And within a few months they had things like you ask it to create a picture of the founding fathers of America, and it was like Violet Davis, you know, Violet Davis, black and white hair and all sorts of interesting features.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Well, you know, for example, all the co-writers of the Attention paper, which was the big breakthrough, they all left Google. I think They&#8217;re different reasons, but they&#8217;re similar reasons. And, you know, it&#8217;s not a surprise that certain people don&#8217;t fit into a corporate environment. They&#8217;re more entrepreneurs, and I&#8217;m very much an entrepreneur. And what I&#8217;ve been able to do is I&#8217;ve been able to kind of unleash my creativity in a private company. Now, we don&#8217;t have the money. I think I could be way more productive at Google, but if that&#8217;s not the way they want to run it, then, you know, it&#8217;s great. to be doing this in your own company.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />And in our company, we can set our culture and set what we do.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What&#8217;s the limiting factor just on a technical side? I mean, we have a dilution fridge, we don&#8217;t use it that often. We have deposition facilities here. What&#8217;s your limiting pacing item that is an obstacle, but you&#8217;re going to overcome it?</p><p>John Martinis:<br />If I gave you 10,000 dilution fridges, if I gave you unlimited time with 300-millimeter wafers, what do John, you need refrigerators to do a lot of testing, but you also need professional fabrication facility where you can do rapid turnaround. And then the third thing you need is a principled understanding of what&#8217;s going wrong. Right now it&#8217;s a little bit, you know, just people try things. However, I think we have a principled understanding now, so we have to work on the other two and, you know, obviously take more data and the like. It&#8217;s all of the above. In the end, I, I&#8217;m just gonna say in the end for us, it&#8217;s funding because with more funding we&#8217;d buy more dilution refrigerators and we could work with the companies and pay for having a bigger effort.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />One final question is just related to the title of the podcast. The only way to know the limits of the possible, Arthur C. Clarke said, is to go beyond them into the impossible. John, what one piece of advice, you had 20 seconds with your 20-year-old self, What would you give the advice to him to go into the impossible with the courage that you&#8217;ve had over your career?</p><p>John Martinis:<br />Well, what happens is you&#8217;re a scientist, you&#8217;re always working on projects. There are projects that are kind of incremental and you know what to do and you&#8217;re going to advance your field and whatever, but always be on the lookout for the impossible, something new, something other people don&#8217;t think will work that if It does work. It&#8217;s very foundational and changed the field. Now, you&#8217;ll have to curate those ideas really well because most of your ideas aren&#8217;t going to work out. And I have ideas all the time and I curate them, and then you choose the best ones and try it. Our company, Collab, is what everyone thinks is not the right way to go. I&#8217;ve thought about it carefully. We understand why it could work and it&#8217;s looking good.</p><p>John Martinis:<br />But you have to think very carefully about it. But yeah, always be on the lookout for the impossible, right?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I love it. I&#8217;m going to make that the motto of the show. John Martinez, winner of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics, thank you so much for being an inspiration. You&#8217;re just a physicist&#8217;s physicist. John, thank you so much. Have a great weekend. We&#8217;ll talk again soon.</p>								</div>
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		<title>Fermilab’s Scott Dodelson on Cosmology’s Crisis</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/scott-dodelson/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2026 21:17:28 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://briankeating.com/?p=8407</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Fermilab’s Scott Dodelson on Cosmology’s Crisis Transcript Scott Dodelson:What we&#8217;ve done in order to make the story of the Universe work is introduce dark matter, introduce inflation, introduce dark energy, and none of this has been found in the lab. How many free passes do we get? Exploring the tension, killing the model is my dream. Brian Keating:That&#8217;s Scott Dodelson. He runs the Cosmic Physics Division at Fermilab. He teaches at the University of Chicago, and if you&#8217;ve ever taken a graduate cosmology class, you probably took it from Scott. He also spent 10 years running the sharpest test anyone has ever made of the Standard Model of cosmology, the model he helped build. The answer came back 2.5 sigma off. Close enough to call it a triumph, not close enough to stop staring at it in disbelief. I&#8217;m Brian Keating. This is Into the Impossible. Brian Keating:What is new in the field of dark energy? Scott Dodelson:Yeah. Brian Keating:Before we go any further. Scott Dodelson:Well, since you&#8217;ve been in the field, we&#8217;ve had this fiducial model of cosmology. I guess you— well, you helped establish it really. So it&#8217;s called Lambda CDM. I&#8217;ve heard you talk about it. And now there you&#8217;ve had Kyle and other people on saying that it&#8217;s under stress. So the fundamental question that I&#8217;m interested in is not— or one of the questions I&#8217;m interested in is how will we change our mind, if we will? That is, we have this pretty simple model, and then there are these data points which are saying, oh, this doesn&#8217;t work. It doesn&#8217;t work. Oh, maybe it doesn&#8217;t work. Scott Dodelson:And so we have to digest that, and everyone digests it in their own way. And then how are we going to collectively— land on another model. And so I know people have written books about this, Thomas Kuhn&#8217;s Structure of Scientific Revolutions, but we&#8217;re living through that time now. So I&#8217;m kind of— Brian Keating:And maybe in many ways with AI, we&#8217;ll get to that later. Scott Dodelson:Yeah, right. So it&#8217;s not, and of course it&#8217;s not just in cosmology. So cosmology is the lens through which I can understand stuff. But as you say, in society in general, we&#8217;re losing faith in institutions. So we don&#8217;t know which institutions we&#8217;re gonna land on and which to believe, which to trust. So I think it&#8217;s kind of an important question. And so I&#8217;ve been trying to explore it in this little corner of our world, cosmology, which is in some ways the simplest thing we do. It&#8217;s very hard to be a parent, to be a spouse, to be a friend, but cosmology&#8217;s really easy &#8217;cause there&#8217;s no people and it&#8217;s an easier thing. Scott Dodelson:So that&#8217;s why I&#8217;ve been trying to explore it in that context. For about 10 years, I was heavily involved in this project called DES, the Dark Energy Survey, and that started taking data in 2012, and as you know, It takes an enormous amount of time to process and analyze this data. So we only put out our final results a few months ago. So that&#8217;s what&#8217;s been occupying me for the last 10 years or so. Brian Keating:Talk about the connection between, you know, the type of science that I do, which is the first light in the universe, the cosmic microwave background. I&#8217;ve talked a lot about that. I&#8217;ve talked less about the kind of science that DES does, though, with the exception of, you know, conversations with people like Kyle and others. But talk about what was DES? What, you know, again, it&#8217;s somewhat strange. Not only are you not using, you know, particle detectors and whatnot, but you&#8217;re using optical telescopes, right? So what does DES do? What is it comprised of? You mentioned how long it took, but what really went into that? How much— what&#8217;s the portfolio diversification, you know, between theory, which is what you do, experimental hardware, observations, big data, machine learning? What are the different ingredients in DES? And first of all, what does it stand for? Scott Dodelson:DES stands for the Dark Energy Survey. The detectors on the telescope, which was in Chile, are made of silicon. And so they leveraged a lot of the silicon technology that Fermilab was always already an expert in. So that&#8217;s one piece of it. The camera itself was built by Fermilab. So that&#8217;s a tremendous contribution. Then there&#8217;s the whole data processing thing. And again, in that realm, high-energy physics has a huge advantage because they&#8217;re used to processing tremendous amounts of data. Scott Dodelson:So there&#8217;s those 2 pieces. And then there&#8217;s the analysis, which takes us an enormous amount of time. And that piece is ongoing. It&#8217;s really thinking back to when it was first started. We thought of it in one way, and all our analysis tools have evolved partially due to AI. So that&#8217;s been kind of interesting to be a part of. But getting back to the science part of it, there&#8217;s a strong connection between what you do and what I do in the sense that one of the things you do is you measure in the cosmic microwave background the fluctuations. So I don&#8217;t know if people can see this, but there are small hot and cold spots in this microwave background. Scott Dodelson:Basically what that means is the temperature, say on this spot over here, was a little bit about 1 part in 10,000 higher than the temperature over here. All that means is there were more photons there, and because there were more photons there, because the photons were also talking to the electrons and protons, there were more electrons and protons there. So if you go back to the early universe, what you have provided us with is a snapshot of the early universe, and we know what it looks like. It was incredibly homogeneous, so the universe was basically the same everywhere,]]></description>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Fermilab’s Scott Dodelson on Cosmology’s Crisis</h2>				</div>
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									<h2><strong>Transcript</strong></h2><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />What we&#8217;ve done in order to make the story of the Universe work is introduce dark matter, introduce inflation, introduce dark energy, and none of this has been found in the lab. How many free passes do we get? Exploring the tension, killing the model is my dream.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s Scott Dodelson. He runs the Cosmic Physics Division at Fermilab. He teaches at the University of Chicago, and if you&#8217;ve ever taken a graduate cosmology class, you probably took it from Scott. He also spent 10 years running the sharpest test anyone has ever made of the Standard Model of cosmology, the model he helped build. The answer came back 2.5 sigma off. Close enough to call it a triumph, not close enough to stop staring at it in disbelief. I&#8217;m Brian Keating. This is Into the Impossible.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What is new in the field of dark energy?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Before we go any further.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Well, since you&#8217;ve been in the field, we&#8217;ve had this fiducial model of cosmology. I guess you— well, you helped establish it really. So it&#8217;s called Lambda CDM. I&#8217;ve heard you talk about it. And now there you&#8217;ve had Kyle and other people on saying that it&#8217;s under stress. So the fundamental question that I&#8217;m interested in is not— or one of the questions I&#8217;m interested in is how will we change our mind, if we will? That is, we have this pretty simple model, and then there are these data points which are saying, oh, this doesn&#8217;t work. It doesn&#8217;t work. Oh, maybe it doesn&#8217;t work.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />And so we have to digest that, and everyone digests it in their own way. And then how are we going to collectively— land on another model. And so I know people have written books about this, Thomas Kuhn&#8217;s Structure of Scientific Revolutions, but we&#8217;re living through that time now. So I&#8217;m kind of—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And maybe in many ways with AI, we&#8217;ll get to that later.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Yeah, right. So it&#8217;s not, and of course it&#8217;s not just in cosmology. So cosmology is the lens through which I can understand stuff. But as you say, in society in general, we&#8217;re losing faith in institutions. So we don&#8217;t know which institutions we&#8217;re gonna land on and which to believe, which to trust. So I think it&#8217;s kind of an important question. And so I&#8217;ve been trying to explore it in this little corner of our world, cosmology, which is in some ways the simplest thing we do. It&#8217;s very hard to be a parent, to be a spouse, to be a friend, but cosmology&#8217;s really easy &#8217;cause there&#8217;s no people and it&#8217;s an easier thing.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />So that&#8217;s why I&#8217;ve been trying to explore it in that context. For about 10 years, I was heavily involved in this project called DES, the Dark Energy Survey, and that started taking data in 2012, and as you know, It takes an enormous amount of time to process and analyze this data. So we only put out our final results a few months ago. So that&#8217;s what&#8217;s been occupying me for the last 10 years or so.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Talk about the connection between, you know, the type of science that I do, which is the first light in the universe, the cosmic microwave background. I&#8217;ve talked a lot about that. I&#8217;ve talked less about the kind of science that DES does, though, with the exception of, you know, conversations with people like Kyle and others. But talk about what was DES? What, you know, again, it&#8217;s somewhat strange. Not only are you not using, you know, particle detectors and whatnot, but you&#8217;re using optical telescopes, right? So what does DES do? What is it comprised of? You mentioned how long it took, but what really went into that? How much— what&#8217;s the portfolio diversification, you know, between theory, which is what you do, experimental hardware, observations, big data, machine learning? What are the different ingredients in DES? And first of all, what does it stand for?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />DES stands for the Dark Energy Survey. The detectors on the telescope, which was in Chile, are made of silicon. And so they leveraged a lot of the silicon technology that Fermilab was always already an expert in. So that&#8217;s one piece of it. The camera itself was built by Fermilab. So that&#8217;s a tremendous contribution. Then there&#8217;s the whole data processing thing. And again, in that realm, high-energy physics has a huge advantage because they&#8217;re used to processing tremendous amounts of data.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />So there&#8217;s those 2 pieces. And then there&#8217;s the analysis, which takes us an enormous amount of time. And that piece is ongoing. It&#8217;s really thinking back to when it was first started. We thought of it in one way, and all our analysis tools have evolved partially due to AI. So that&#8217;s been kind of interesting to be a part of. But getting back to the science part of it, there&#8217;s a strong connection between what you do and what I do in the sense that one of the things you do is you measure in the cosmic microwave background the fluctuations. So I don&#8217;t know if people can see this, but there are small hot and cold spots in this microwave background.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Basically what that means is the temperature, say on this spot over here, was a little bit about 1 part in 10,000 higher than the temperature over here. All that means is there were more photons there, and because there were more photons there, because the photons were also talking to the electrons and protons, there were more electrons and protons there. So if you go back to the early universe, what you have provided us with is a snapshot of the early universe, and we know what it looks like. It was incredibly homogeneous, so the universe was basically the same everywhere, and with very, very small fluctuations of 1 part in 10 or 100,000. So that&#8217;s what you&#8217;ve provided us. What this theory that we&#8217;ve landed on, Lambda CDM, predicts is how those small fluctuations will accrete more and more matter over the course of 13.7 billion years. And we can test that with DES and see whether those fluctuations have grown to the size they were supposed to according to the theory. So that&#8217;s, to me, the most fundamental test we&#8217;re doing.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />If it hasn&#8217;t, that means this theory is wrong. So to me, that&#8217;s the stress test that&#8217;s occupied me for 10 years.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Why do we tend to kind of just, as I describe it, you know, have the series of descriptions to our students, you know, from Nobel Prize to Nobel Prize without loss of enthusiasm? How do you view the way that we should teach cosmology?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />I&#8217;m not sure there&#8217;s a direct answer, but this is my experience of it, which is in DES, to me, the most important thing has not been the papers we&#8217;ve written or that discovery we made that basically the fluctuations are what they should be in this theory. But the most important thing has been the people. So, and I think we as mentors get an enormous amount of satisfaction by working with these young people. So communicating not just facts to them, but also the very little that we know has been, I think it&#8217;s eye-opening to them. I&#8217;ll give you an example. I was at a collaboration meeting a couple of years ago, and this first-year grad student from Spain was there, and she was talking about her work on this very complex piece of analysis. And I went up to her afterwards and I asked her a question. I said, well, do you understand this and this? She goes, you don&#8217;t understand.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />I&#8217;ve only been working on this for 3 months. I said, no, you don&#8217;t understand. You&#8217;re in charge. So it&#8217;s like these people, the young people, they&#8217;re the ones who basically— it&#8217;s not like there&#8217;s some threshold above which you become and Einstein, we&#8217;re all kind of swimming around in the sea of ignorance trying to figure out things. We have a little bit more experience than younger people, but they have advantages that we don&#8217;t have, for example. So it&#8217;s, to me, that&#8217;s been the best part about DS is working with these young people. It&#8217;s been great.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You talk in your Substack, which we&#8217;ll link below, and that you kind of had this really phase change, I think is the only way, revolution, April 1992. Talk about the day, you know, the music died. Talk about Kobe. I remember that I was in college at the time and I was in a summer program or starting a summer program. And I kind of even had a glimpse that this was something important, but I didn&#8217;t know I would do it for the rest of my career. Talk about 1982, 1992, why that was so transformative for you in your career. It really seems to have pivoted you in a completely different direction, which is wonderful to say about your flexibility intellectually. But why was it so important to you?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Yeah, I think what happened before 1992 is there were a lot of people who had really fascinating ideas about cosmology. And one of those ideas, what I just described, that there were small fluctuations in this cosmic microwave background, and they grew to be the structure we see today. But there was absolutely no evidence. There was no prediction that had been made that had been verified. There was only postdictions. People observed stuff and they said, oh yeah, I can explain it this way, that way. So any reasonable person looking at that would say, I don&#8217;t trust these guys. And in fact, quite a few astronomers and other people didn&#8217;t trust the few cosmologists working in the field for for very good reason.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />So what happened on April 24th, 1992 is the first detection of anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background. So the fact that there are slightly spots that are slightly hotter than other spots. So that discovery was a prediction. Stephen Hawking called it the discovery of the century, if not ever. So, I mean, he was one of the driving forces behind the whole field of cosmology. So he recognized how important it was. And another thing that I highlighted there is that in the old days, they used to print— you&#8217;re probably too young for this— the New York Times on paper. And so the first column of the New York Times on the right-hand side was the lead article.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />So that was the first, I think the only time in the history of the New York Times that a science article was on the first column. And I think that they got that right, because that was the discovery that underpins modern cosmology. In 1,000 years, that&#8217;s the story people will be pointing to, I think. For me, actually, at the time was kind of depressing because I was working on all these fanciful things. that were fun to work on. And to understand as a theorist what the physics that goes into that required me to learn a whole new set of tools, which I didn&#8217;t, you know, it wasn&#8217;t up my alley. So I knew I had colleagues who ended up just staying and not moving forward, but I kind of had a family to support, so I figured I got to learn this stuff. So I tried really hard to learn this stuff and end up writing this book to help me learn it.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />And so I&#8217;m able to stay in the game to some extent. Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And that pivot from, you know, kind of particle theory to part of, you know, theoretical astroparticle cosmology, which you&#8217;re one of the major instigators of, I think, you know, to be, to be fair to you, there were also, you know, separate, you know, physics and cosmology, physics and astronomy, astronomy and cosmology. They were all kind of separate things.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />As I told you, the previous occupants of this office was, you know, Jeff and Margaret Burbidge. This plate is one of the Palomar plates that she took with the galaxy.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />That&#8217;s cool.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;ve got some redshifts. So they— and they didn&#8217;t believe in cosmology basically until the day they died. You know, Big Bang cosmology. Jeff used to go into paroxysms of rage when a speaker would have the misfortune of mentioning it. He was a steady-state proponent until he died, long after COBE. What do you make of that? Are there modern-day versions of people like Jeff, you know, that are just kind of eminent, brilliant scientists that just do not accept either inflation or maybe it&#8217;s string theory or the standard model? Do you see any parallels between the Big Bang deniers of that age, which you lived through partially, Yeah. In today&#8217;s age?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />I think so. I think we tend to weight things according to our experiences. So I just wrote a thing about something that is obvious to you, but maybe not obvious to most people, which is the sky. The light from the stars or galaxies comes in different colors. You can view a given galaxy with one filter and see it as one color, or view it with a different filter and see it in a different way. And that&#8217;s a metaphor to me of the way we perceive the world, right? We&#8217;re all perceiving the world via our own filters. So as one example, there&#8217;s kind of a raging controversy now about neutrinos, which are these very small, very light particles that actually there&#8217;s about a billion of them that just passed through my hand that were produced in the early universe. We don&#8217;t know their masses.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />You and your colleagues have done experiments which lead to the conclusion that their masses are smaller than they should be according to experiments that have been done by particle physicists here. And when you raise that to the particle physicists, they just don&#8217;t believe the cosmology, basically. So I think that&#8217;s an example of a whole class of smart people who don&#8217;t necessarily buy into this field, really, or all of the field. Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And it&#8217;s partially natural historically. You think, you know, we&#8217;ve never detected a new particle, weighed the mass of a particle except in an accelerator or something like that. So to use the cosmos as your accelerator, which is natural to people like me, But yeah, it&#8217;s very— it&#8217;s sociological in science that it&#8217;s different.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Have you seen examples of that?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah. I mean, I&#8217;ve asked people about that, like my particle physics friends. Don Lincoln, I&#8217;ve talked to, is in your neighborhood, right? Will you believe it when a particle physicist sees a cosmologist say, here&#8217;s the mass of the neutrino? Now we&#8217;re working on a paper with Shasha Arani that you met over lunch that really seems to suggest that we&#8217;re going to need all 3 different types of things. Neutrinoless double beta decay, we&#8217;re going to need laboratory experiments, and we&#8217;re going to need long baseline, we&#8217;re going to need cosmology. And that spectrum actually will make the case much stronger than only the cosmologists see it and give up all hope. Let&#8217;s talk about the Dodgson-Widrow mechanism. That&#8217;s sort of where I first got exposed to you. Very intimidated.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It was my second year of grad school, 1994. Where did this come from?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />This is at Brown.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I was at Brown, and I was trying to understand, well, dark matter. I&#8217;m still trying to understand that. We&#8217;re going to talk a lot about dark matter. And these are called sterile neutrinos. So first, what the hell is going on here? What are neutrinos? Just let&#8217;s do a recap. Neutrinos, flavor, oscillation. What does it mean? Where are they oscillating? Are they jiggling around in here? What&#8217;s a sterile neutrino? What&#8217;s a Majorana particle? What&#8217;s a Dirac particle? Let&#8217;s go through it. I want to get my money&#8217;s worth.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Flew you all the way out from Chicago.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Okay, 10 questions.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s my forte.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />A neutrino. People are familiar with electrons because that&#8217;s what they&#8217;re made of. And so particle physicists tend to think of neutrinos as being partnered with electrons. So the fundamental theory of nature says that every thing like an electron has to have a neutrino associated with it. So for example, you mentioned muons earlier. Muons are kind of cousins of electrons. They also have their own neutrino with them. There&#8217;s another thing like that.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />They&#8217;re called— all these things are called leptons. There&#8217;s a tau lepton. It has its own neutrino. So neutrinos are associated with electrons in this case, or electrons or muons or taus, whereas the electrons are charged. They have a negative charge. Neutrinos do not have electric charge. That&#8217;s why they&#8217;re so hard to detect. Whereas neutrinos have a mass that we know, neutrinos have masses which are at least a million orders of magnitude— a million, sorry, a factor of a million smaller, probably a billion smaller.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Than the electron. So that&#8217;s what they are. They&#8217;re very, very hard to detect. However, just like the electron, they do participate in what&#8217;s called the weak force. And that&#8217;s important because there are various decay processes that are important to life and everything that produce neutrinos. So for sure neutrinos exist. We&#8217;ve seen them, but they only interact very weakly, so they&#8217;re very hard to detect. So that answers your first question.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />What is a sterile neutrino?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Those are called flavor states. The partnering, pairing between the subatomic elementary particles, mu, tau, and electron, those are the flavor states, but they are not the mass states.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Right, exactly. So what I mentioned is that these neutrinos, the electron neutrino is paired with the electron. So that is, um, so that&#8217;s one type of neutrino. But if you imagine the possibility of a given quantum state that is a superposition, probably you&#8217;ve had a lot of quantum computing people on, so people are familiar with superposition, a superposition of an electron neutrino and a tau neutrino. So that&#8217;s possible. And it turns out that a superposition of those neutrinos are actually eigenstates of mass. That is, they&#8217;re eigenstates of mass. That means they— the mass eigenstates are the things that propagate through space.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And respond to spacetime curvature, for example.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Right, exactly. If there was no mass, then there would be— there would only be this one basis, the flavor basis. But because there&#8217;s mass, things get mixed up. It&#8217;s kind of a quantum mechanical effect. And because they get mixed up, it&#8217;s possible— and this was first detected from neutrinos from the Sun— that neutrino could be produced in the Sun in one type, one flavor, and be detected as another flavor. So that&#8217;s the oscillations you mentioned. So I hit 2 of your questions.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, yeah, sterile neutrinos.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Sterile neutrinos. Okay, so each of those things are a type of neutral particle. It turns out that it&#8217;s quite possible that there is another neutral particle associated with them that does not experience the weak force. So neutrinos are not charged, so they interact very weakly, but they do interact. A sterile neutrino is even less weakly interacting than that. It&#8217;s completely divorced from the weak force. It&#8217;s not produced in decays. et cetera.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Why do we think they exist? There&#8217;s kind of a complicated technical reason for it. That is, if you think about electrons, they&#8217;re made up of left-handed spinning states and right-handed spinning states. The neutrino that we know are all left-handed spinning, so we kind of expect there to be right-handed spinning states also. Those are sterile neutrinos. That&#8217;s sterile neutrino.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And the sterile neutrino was hypothesized to be, via the Dodgson-Widrow mechanism, a potential but no— by no means confirmed dark matter candidate. Now let me say one thing. I tell people we&#8217;ve detected dark matter. We have unequivocally detected— I told Neil deGrasse Tyson this to his face, and he was astonished. And I said, they&#8217;re neutrinos. They satisfy every possible property except for the fact that they don&#8217;t make up all of the mass that is seemingly required to explain the dark matter gap between the amount of luminous matter and the amount of total matter that we see, right? So that&#8217;s like saying, you know, and then they&#8217;re like, well, it doesn&#8217;t solve dark matter. That&#8217;s like saying, well, hydrogen doesn&#8217;t explain all baryonic matter. It&#8217;s irrelevant.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />There might be a whole— as George and as past guests on the podcast, Mike Turner and others have said, there might be a whole periodic dark matter table, the dark periodic table, right? So am I wrong? Should I shut up about this dark matter detection already occurring?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Well, let me challenge you with one thing. Have we detected cosmic neutrinos?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We&#8217;ve detected— I believe we&#8217;ve detected—</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Oh, we have. Yeah, we have. You have detected.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Not direct detection.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Not direct. You have indirectly detected them. So yes. So you have indirectly detected neutrino dark matter. There&#8217;s a difference between direct detection where you actually build a detector that tries to see these cosmic neutrinos, a billion of which just passed through my hand. That, do you know Joe Formaggio from MIT? So he has told me that every experimentalist in their career goes through a period of 2 years where they try to detect cosmic neutrinos and then they realize it&#8217;s impossible.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And unfortunately their startup runs out.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Yeah, exactly. Anyway, but you have detected that, you and your CMB colleagues have detected them indirectly. If they weren&#8217;t there, then the pattern of anisotropies that we see would look much different. So kudos, 100% agree. Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So what is the Dodgson-Lidro mechanism?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />In the late &#8217;80s, early &#8217;90s, there was a guy named John Simpson, and there was evidence— he provided evidence for detecting in the lab a neutrino with a mass of 17 kiloelectron volts. Did you ever hear about this?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />No.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />People were like astonished. It turned out to be an experimental artifact due to magnetic fields, but for about 3 to 5 years, everyone was talking about it. As you probably know, such a heavy neutrino would— makes a lot of problems for cosmology. So I started thinking about what would happen. Would they be produced and stuff? And so then Larry and I came up with this idea that putting aside the 17-kV neutrino, which turned out to go away, maybe it&#8217;s possible that the ordinary neutrinos in the very early universe oscillate into these sterile neutrinos, And maybe they have a mass, so produce enough of them so that they constitute the dark matter today. I still think it&#8217;s a good idea because we know neutrinos exist, right? As opposed to every other dark matter candidate around where we don&#8217;t know exists. So to some extent, my prior on that is higher than other things, but of course I&#8217;m pretty biased. So yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Talk about the mechanism. There&#8217;s something called a mixing angle, which is quite beautiful when you think about it, that the these states, these quantum mechanical eigenstates, which are superpositions, that they have this ability to effectively rotate just like an ordinary rotation of a ball or any object in 2-dimensional. It&#8217;s the simplest thing you could imagine. I guess 1-dimensional would be simpler, but they can basically be thought about as rotating in this abstract space. How do you think about that? How do you visualize this? Is it purely a mathematical thing in a theorist brain?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Yeah, that&#8217;s a great question. And you&#8217;re absolutely right. that you don&#8217;t need flavors or anything like that. It&#8217;s actually just a 2-dimensional space, the regular neutrino and the sterile neutrino. Actually, this comes back to the way different people perceive and think about different things and how everyone&#8217;s opinion, everyone&#8217;s brain sees things differently. So my mind works best very linearly and mathematically. I&#8217;m not good spatially. So I just think about a 2 by 2 matrix, which is a pretty simple mathematical thing.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />So I just think of these things as If you take 2 by 2 matrix with off-diagonal elements and diagonalize it, that&#8217;s what I think of as an oscillation. But people like, I&#8217;m sure you think of it in a more spatially, in more of a physically intuitive way. I don&#8217;t think I have that physical intuition.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So what&#8217;s physically happening, the way I think about it, I do think about it mathematically also, but in quantum mechanics, phase is an important quantity. Even though we can&#8217;t directly measure phase, you can measure phase differences, right? And so stop me if I get this wrong, but energy differences lead to phase differences, which then can be imprinted And then you can get physical oscillation. I mean, we get oscillations of— and that was the solution to the solar neutrino problem, right? It was effectively this oscillation, both abstractly in the phase space of quantum mechanical rotation space, but physically these things are oscillating as they travel. If the distance between the Earth and the sun were different, we would&#8217;ve gotten a different answer, right? We could have been in this weird position where it exactly always came out to be an electron or something like that. We just didn&#8217;t happen to live there, right?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So how do we explain this, that the neutrinos interact with matter? But sterile neutrinos wouldn&#8217;t interact with matter, say, in the same way?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />It turns out matter plays a quantitative role in it, but it&#8217;s not— I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s a qualitative thing. So I think the qualitative thing is exactly what you said, that in the solar neutrino issue, the electron neutrinos that the sun produced convert as they travel into muon neutrinos that Ray Davis, et cetera— did he win a Nobel Prize?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />So that is an oscillation in a 2-dimensional space. It&#8217;s the exact same thing without the flavor thing. The 2 dimensions are that the regular neutrino and the sterile neutrino. It&#8217;s the same exact process that we think might have happened in the early universe to produce— we had a lot of regular neutrinos around in the early universe. They oscillated and produced these sterile neutrinos that could be the dark matter today. So it&#8217;s the exact same process.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Now, a year ago, Kyle Dawson sat in that very chair with Dan Green, and we had the spirited conversation about DESY, right? And a lot of the conversation was kind of a little bit, you know, he&#8217;s very statesmanlike and wonderful scientist and just exceptional person. But I detected a little bit of hedging. You know, he&#8217;s saying, yes, there&#8217;s a 4.2 sigma tension. And I often say, you know, we&#8217;ve got the Hubble tension, we have the sigma-8 tension, now we&#8217;ve got the W tension. So what do you make of these different tensions? First of all, I&#8217;ve had eminent scientists, including a partner of one of your, you know, former partners, Mike Turner, Lawrence Krauss, alleges— he sometimes says he came up with dark energy, and on his weaker moments, or maybe he&#8217;s being more accurate than I&#8217;m giving him credit for, but with Mike Turner, that they sort of independently came up with some ideas that suggested dark It was real. And he doesn&#8217;t believe it. Lawrence Krauss said he thinks they&#8217;re wrong. It&#8217;s not a— it&#8217;s a cosmological constant.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Now, Einstein was wrong once before. It&#8217;s too bad. He could have had a good career, right? But tell me, Scott, where do you come down on this? Where— what is it, a legitimate tension? Where does it rank in the tensions that I mentioned? Sigma-8, which is clumping of matter, uh, Hubble tension, which is disagreement at early times and late times, and, uh, and now this new tension between dark energy and the cosmological constant.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Just to focus on one thing, this SA tension you mentioned, that&#8217;s what I&#8217;ve been spending the last 10 years on. This idea that think about Manhattan in 1790, there were 50 people every square mile in Manhattan, very overdense compared to the rest of the country. Today there are 50,000. So why is it that the inhomogeneities grew like that? That&#8217;s a fascinating question, right? Could someone in 1790 have predicted that there would be exactly 50,000 people? No way. But we&#8217;ve done that. Lambda CDM predicts that what you measured in the microwave background evolves to be precisely the inhomogeneities we see today, that precisely modulo the fact that it&#8217;s off by about 2 sigma or something. So that&#8217;s what you call the S8 tension. So I guess my question back to you is, is it tension or is it, wow, that is unbelievable we&#8217;re able to get that close? I&#8217;m kind of depressed that it&#8217;s not a 5 sigma tension because then it would be whatever, like just like kind of Kyle is saying.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />But on the other hand, we&#8217;re so close on this incredibly amazing story that we&#8217;ve created. We&#8217;ve created a story of how we got here.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I guess the pushback, I would say, you know, sometimes we, I feel like we gotta grow an extra arm to pat ourselves on the back. And you&#8217;re doing a great job of that with the experimental, you know, kind of kudos to us. But by the same token, I have kids, you have kids, right? And you remember when your kids were young, you&#8217;d take &#8217;em to the doctor at age 2 and they&#8217;d measure their height and they&#8217;d say, basically they&#8217;re gonna double in size. Right? And how do they know that? Well, they&#8217;ve had about 100 billion humans have lived since, you know, time equals zero when Og and Magog, you know, came out of the cave and somewhere in, uh, 250,000 years ago. They estimate about 100 billion people. Let&#8217;s say pretty good statistics on this, right? Now we only have one universe, and we always complain about how hard it is to be a cosmologist, you know, world&#8217;s smallest violin. There&#8217;s only one universe. I always say at least astronomers have, you know, 100 trillion stars, you know, perhaps in the observable universe.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So there&#8217;s a lot of different, you know, statistics that they can do.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />You&#8217;re making my point that because there&#8217;s so many regions of that size, you and your colleagues are able to measure it at one time in the universe, and you&#8217;ve measured it incredibly precisely to a few percent, right? That&#8217;s what, that&#8217;s what your point is, that there&#8217;s so many different regions that you can measure it so precisely. And we, we&#8217;re not quite— we haven&#8217;t measured quite the area you have, but we&#8217;ve measured a lot. And we can measure it at a time 13.7 billion years later, and we get an answer that&#8217;s 10,000 times bigger, but precisely on what the prediction gives. So it&#8217;s the precision that to me is astonishing and is a great success.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So why do you still work on it? Like, what&#8217;s left to unravel? I mean, I&#8217;m, I&#8217;m not an expert in some way. Your time is very valuable, right? So why are you still so deeply invested in it?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />So you&#8217;re looking for something that if you found them, these B-modes in the cosmic ray background would prove beyond a shadow of a doubt, inflation, something that happened in unimaginably small times, it would be incredible. The rest of us are focused on unkinging Lambda CDM, like basically just dethroning it. So there are people like Kyle do it in one way by trying to figure out whether the distance that they measure to distant places agrees with what you guys in Lambda CDM predicts. And I&#8217;ve been doing it in this other way by seeing whether that precise prediction, which is so precise, Is correct. And so the answer is it&#8217;s still called an SA tension. That is, we&#8217;re not exactly right. So I overstated it a little bit, but we&#8217;re— so we&#8217;re 2.5 sigma off, which means there&#8217;s technically only a 1% chance that theory&#8217;s right. But we kind of know that that&#8217;s probably— yeah, yeah, yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Millions of one things happen.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So today here.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />So I mean, exploring the tension, killing the model is my dream.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Is that because there are certain dependencies on sigma 8 that go as like, what, sigma 8 to the 7th power? There&#8217;s some interesting— either it&#8217;s in the power spectrum or I seem to recall there— aren&#8217;t there some very crisp tests that are available because of the deep sensitivity on sigma 8? Like, in other words, if you nail sigma 8, you can get other things to extremely 8 times higher precision.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />I mean, that&#8217;s probably true for galaxy formation, the halo mass function and stuff, but that&#8217;s That&#8217;s not what I&#8217;m most interested in measuring. This very simple statistic, it actually comes back to something you mentioned earlier. We&#8217;re doing it with the simplest of statistics, what&#8217;s called the 2-point function or the power spectrum, which is some of the same thing that you use. And I wonder if we&#8217;re going to be supplanted with AI and ML techniques that use more of the information. So essentially what we&#8217;re doing is we&#8217;re compressing the data into 100 numbers, right? And from those 100 numbers, we&#8217;re extracting out this one number. and comparing to the one number that you guys measure. So that may not be the best way to test the theory. There might be better ways to do it.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />So people are thinking about that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Higher-order functions. Yeah.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Last time you gave a colloquium here, which is, you know, decades ago now, but, but it was extremely well received. You made this beautiful kind of point about the discovery of dark matter, you know, in our solar system, which was— goes by the name of Neptune. And Neptune was discovered by Le Verrier famously. I went back and I looked at his paper from 1843 or whatever. And they basically, you know, it&#8217;s just this lionizing hero worship. It&#8217;s like he discovered a planet with a pencil, you know?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Wow.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s basically just this lone genius that set this thing. And then you made the case that, like, okay, so that was discovery that there was this weird sort of effect that was happening to the planet George, Uranus, which I think still should have been called George. But anyway, you took us back to that time, you know, when there could have been some problem with Newton, Isaac Newton&#8217;s gravity, or it could have been dark matter that was just unseen. And it turned out to be dark matter. Then you made the analogy, let&#8217;s fast forward to 1911, 1913, &#8217;14, Einstein&#8217;s coming up with GR, and Le Verrier and the acolytes of Le Verrier were still— actually, Le Verrier was proposing that Mercury was being perturbed by an unseen companion, just like Neptune.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Called Vulcan.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right. And then you said, well, that time he was wrong, right? So the hammer theory is everything looks like a nail when all you have is a hammer. Where do you think we are with dark matter? What is your take? I&#8217;ve had Mordecai Milgrom on the podcast. What do you make of the, you know, kind of alternative, you know, history rhyming again and again, looking for dark matter, looking for changes to gravity? Where do you think we&#8217;re going to end up? What do you— what— I mean, you worked on this for a long time. Where do you come— what is dark matter?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Yeah, I have no idea. I actually had this debate with Stacy that this is an organization that promotes civil debates. So we had this debate and I don&#8217;t So just to give context, Stacy McGaugh is one of the leading astronomers who doubts the existence of dark matter. And he and Mordechai Milgrom and other people, most notably from a theoretical perspective, an Israel— a Mexican-Israeli physicist, Jacob Bekenstein, put forth alternative models of gravity that would not require dark matter. The problem with those is they don&#8217;t explain what you guys have seen. And to some extent, it&#8217;s another example of what we&#8217;ve been talking about, It all depends on your filter. What they look at is, oh, I can see that galaxy over there. Let me look at that.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />And I can fit this better with my theory of modified gravity. What we tend to think— what I think is simpler is the stuff that you measure, because there&#8217;s no people there. It&#8217;s just electrons, protons, and photons. It&#8217;s really simple to understand. But from their perspective, that&#8217;s like a zillion miles away. How can we possibly understand it? So it&#8217;s 2 different lenses on the same universe. And from their perspective, we&#8217;re never going to convince them that this distant stuff has any information about what is guiding stars in a galaxy near us. So I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s much hope of bridging that gap.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />However, Stacy, who&#8217;s a very reasonable person, does not believe MOND is correct. And if you look at the generalizations of MOND, such as the ones that Bekenstein set up, they&#8217;re actually so close to theories of dark matter. They introduce new fields, that it&#8217;s the same thing, basically. They&#8217;re just introducing new stuff. And so I actually think another possibility is that we&#8217;re just looking at everything wrong, that there&#8217;s someone&#8217;s going to come around and say, we have to just rethink everything. Because we— what we&#8217;ve done in order to make the story of the universe work is introduce dark matter, introduce inflation, introduce dark energy, and none of this has been found in the lab. So How many free passes do we get? I don&#8217;t know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />No, it&#8217;s extraordinary that you&#8217;re, again, candid and you&#8217;re honest and you&#8217;re willing to admit where these lacunae, these gaps, these flaws. But I often say the most exciting thing, and you hinted at this earlier, is a flaw, right? Because I tell my students, a flaw leads to a law, and we just don&#8217;t know it yet. The Big Bang was kind of a solution to a lot of the problems in the steady state model. The inflationary universe is sort of this patchwork of fixes and kind of home improvements to the Big Bang model, fiducial model, and Lambda CDM. And there&#8217;s alternatives to it. But one thing I thought about, 61 years ago this month or last month, the CMB was discovered and the announcement was discovered. And many people, including Jeff Burbidge, who used to occupy this office, and his longtime colleague Fred Hoyle, and the recently deceased, and also I&#8217;m very proud to say past guest, Jayant Narlikar, they went to their graves believing in the steady state, quasi-steady state. They added some stuff to it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />They were eminent scientists. I mean, these are people that were Nobel-worthy adjacent to Willy Fowler, did win the Nobel Prize for the, you know, BBFH, and incredibly eminent scientists. Hoyle, of course, coined the term Big Bang as a pejorative. And my question to you is, when the CMB was announced, Hoyle said, well, they found it to be, you know, 2.7 Kelvin. But if it had turned out to be 27 Kelvin or, you know, 270 Kelvin, they would have explained that too. And it reminded me of this quote that I have in my book from you, from eminent cosmologist Scott Dodelson. During BICEP2, you said inflation can produce a B-mode signal as small as you like. And I kind of used that in the rhyming sense with our friend Fred Hoyle, who said, you know, they would&#8217;ve found any value.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So it was almost like anything that we found would be consistent. And you&#8217;re not the only one who said this, by the way. And many people said things much, much more hyperbolic, like, hello multiverse, Max Tegmark said. And Lawrence Krauss said, this now means there&#8217;s proof that God does not exist. It&#8217;s an incredible For me personally, obviously. I talk about a lot of these in Losing the Nobel Prize, my first book. But what do you make of that? If a theory accommodates any result, is it a theory? I mean, what is it? What are we to make of it?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Yeah, I don&#8217;t want to go too far towards ignorance, and the fact that smart people don&#8217;t believe in the microwave background doesn&#8217;t mean they&#8217;re correct.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Right?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Sure. I think here, there&#8217;s a sidebar. I think the human need for meaning is the most paramount need that humans have. Viktor Frankl, Yeah. Man&#8217;s search for meaning, right? I want to just kind of take this counterfactual, hypothetical, 10 years from now, 2036, DESI&#8217;s done, Simon&#8217;s Observatory&#8217;s done, CMBS4 never happened, but unfortunately, rest in peace, it should have happened. Lightbird, there&#8217;s many different projects hopefully that will augment and complement and compete with us. And so I think the most healthy thing is to have a competitive scientific environment. And so I welcome our kind of competition from China.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We have a Chinese team that&#8217;s trying to do this. And there&#8217;s many other great and brilliant scientists, but we&#8217;re there. What does cosmology being done look like? What does a solved model of cosmology look like? And is it on the horizon in our grand grad student careers?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Okay, I have no idea, but—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What would satisfy you?</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Let&#8217;s agree that cosmology is a millennial-old pursuit, maybe more. Maybe those people from 75,000 years ago, maybe they also— And we&#8217;ve been just incredibly fortunate to live in a time where the, you know, the amount of information we&#8217;ve gotten has been, you know, extraordinary about the universe. We have very good reason for believing that the universe is not on the back of a turtle, right? You know, we&#8217;re not any smarter than the people who made up that theory, right? Because we have data. So we&#8217;ve just been incredibly fortunate. But it&#8217;s still a 1,000-year-old science, and it&#8217;s probably going to be evolving. So the chance that we&#8217;re going to identify dark matter In my career is, I would say it&#8217;s pretty small. The chance, well, you tell me. I mean, the chance that we find B-modes, so you&#8217;re gonna be extending the reach by a factor of 5 to 10, is that right?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />So that, I mean, you have to have a prior on what inflationary models produce that. I mean, it would be amazing. As you probably know, I went all goo goo gaga the first time you guys reported something. So it would be, you know, it would be amazing. We have to be clear about what we, what we know and what we don&#8217;t know. If you guys discovered B-modes, that would not be the end of our studies of inflation. Then we&#8217;d put up a gravitational wave thing in space to detect gravitational waves at higher frequencies, right? For sure. What they used to call the Big Bang Observatory, right? So we would definitely hone in on those B-modes because they would teach us about physics 12 orders of magnitude larger than can be probed at the Large Hadron Collider.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />So that would, that would open things up. In dark matter, if we detected something in the, in the 100 GeV range that pointed to supersymmetry, that would open up the, the pathway, I think, to more colliders being built to understand things. So I think the possibility of, especially this marriage of quarks in the cosmos, the possibility of discovery would be unlikely to shut things down. But as I said, I really, I really don&#8217;t know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I tell my students a flaw leads to a law. And we just don&#8217;t know which law yet. Scott spent a decade in the trenches working on one flaw: whether the lumps in the universe grow the way the theory says they should. There&#8217;s a second way to stress test the same model. A year ago, Kyle Dawson sat in the same chair and told me what DESI found: 4.2 sigma. If Scott&#8217;s crack and Kyle&#8217;s crack are the same crack, Lambda-CDM is finished. That conversation is on screen now. Click it, watch it, subscribe and share it, and then tell me which tension you&#8217;d bet the most on.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m Brian Keating. This is Into the Impossible. Tune in next time.</p><p>Scott Dodelson:<br />Tune in next time.</p>								</div>
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		<title>Faith &#038; the Physicist: Aliens, Astrobiology, String Theory, and the Search for Meaning</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/faith-physicist/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2026 21:07:48 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Faith &#38; the Physicist: Aliens, Astrobiology, String Theory, and the Search for Meaning Transcript Brian Keating:My 2 friends, Professor Adam Frank and Professor Niayesh Afshordi of respectively University of Rochester and Perimeter Institute, University of Waterloo. How are you boys? Adam Frank:Doing well. Niayesh Afshordi:Yeah, I&#8217;m doing great. Thank you. Thanks for having us. Brian Keating:Smoke&#8217;s not too bad for you guys, I hope, on the East Coast. You know, we&#8217;re usually the ones with the smoky forest fires, but you guys have all the fun this summer, it seems like. We&#8217;re enjoying a characteristic day here in Southern California. Adam Frank:It&#8217;s been clear for a bit. It was, it was a couple weeks ago that we had the smoke, so right now it&#8217;s okay. Brian Keating:Well, the reason we&#8217;re here today is because you guys are 2 of the most interesting, um, not only scientists and what you do, but you guys see it as your mission, perhaps the way that I do, that we scientists have a moral obligation to share what we do with the public because they pay our salaries. I don&#8217;t even care if you&#8217;re privately funded like I am, pretty much. We&#8217;re all serving at the, you know, kind of gratitude or gratitude towards the public, and they&#8217;re our boss. And you guys in particular do, you know, heroic work in communicating real science without pulling punches to real people without dumbing it down. And I just wanna acknowledge you guys for doing that. And maybe just start with that. What do you think about this statement? I&#8217;ll start with Nayesh. I feel like what we do as scientists is important, but sometimes it&#8217;s not significant. Brian Keating:In other words, I&#8217;m searching for some ancient photons. Maybe they&#8217;ll be, you know, important to understand the primordial universe. Niyash, you also study the primordial universe, but also high-energy particles, forces, and fields. Adam studies the existence of life throughout the cosmos. None of these things affect, you know, Joe Six-Pack here, you know, in El Cajon, or Joey Bag of Donuts over there in Rochester or Toronto. So what do you see as our obligation, Niyash? And then Adam, what is our obligation as citizens Well, that&#8217;s an excellent question. Niayesh Afshordi:And it&#8217;s— I want to say that we are kind of like the canary in the coal mine that we— I mean, the society is this huge, humongous thing that operates and requires a certain set of skills. And in particular, we need to kind of foresee what&#8217;s, what&#8217;s coming down the road, how we could survive things like catastrophes, pandemics, climate, uh, climate catastrophes, all sorts of things, bad things that could happen. And also the good things can potentially happen— artificial intelligence, uh, technology. All of these things are things that, I mean, the society needs. But to get there, to avoid bad things and get the good things, there is a method to it, right? You have to learn from your mistakes and build upon your successes. And really, if you want to summarize this, this is the scientific method, right? You want to learn from experience and build upon that. You don&#8217;t repeat your mistakes, build a model, a model that works. If the model doesn&#8217;t work, you modify it, you find a better model. Niayesh Afshordi:If the model works, you fortify it and you kind of make it better and better. And that&#8217;s what science does. My idea is that what we do, even though we look at very abstract things, is that we are really perfecting the scientific method in the corners that are— it hasn&#8217;t been really pushed and explored before, in places where the scientific method may not be developed yet. But then when we develop it, it&#8217;s ready to be used. It&#8217;s something that everyone else can plug and play for their Nintendos or for iPhones. Eventually, that&#8217;s going to come down the line. But somebody should start basically developing this method somewhere. And I think we are kind of the pioneers that are doing it for the first time. Brian Keating:Yeah, you just left off the highest form of technology, which is the podcast, right, Adam? Adam, you, uh, and I, I want to recognize, uh, you, you&#8217;ve, you&#8217;ve been writing for longer, uh, than either Naish and or myself in the public and communicating for some, for some, uh, just incredible content that you put out. Um, but you too are also a working practicing scientist like Naish, and, and I&#8217;m curious how you divide your time. You just received an enormous and well-deserved grant from the Templeton Foundation. to really explore these ideas that I quite frankly think you are one of the major expositors of and certainly among the best. So how do you view your time between splitting it, you know, between popularization, shall we say, communication, which is a form of scientific marketing? I think it&#8217;s good to be honest about it. Niayesh Afshordi:Sure. Brian Keating:And it redounds to our benefit, but it should redound to the public&#8217;s benefit. So how do you divide that? &#8216;Cause I know my first book was being written, I asked my department chair, who&#8217;s the son of a Nobel Prize winner, Nikolai Basov, co-invented the laser. I said, you know, so I get some time off, I&#8217;m writing a book, right? And Dmitry, his son, said, no, but we will try not to punish you for writing a book. Adam Frank:That&#8217;s an apt way of putting it. Yeah. Brian Keating:How do you view your kind of— how do you break down your time? Take me through a day in the life of Adam Frank, Professor Adam Frank. Yeah. Adam Frank:You know, I find them very— they&#8217;re interwoven, right? And, you know, I&#8217;ve I always tell young students, doing this kind of science communication is super important, but it&#8217;s more important that you have your scientific career, right? I mean, especially when you&#8217;re]]></description>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Faith &amp; the Physicist: Aliens, Astrobiology, String Theory, and the Search for Meaning</h2>				</div>
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									<h2><strong>Transcript</strong></h2><p>Brian Keating:<br />My 2 friends, Professor Adam Frank and Professor Niayesh Afshordi of respectively University of Rochester and Perimeter Institute, University of Waterloo. How are you boys?</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Doing well.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Yeah, I&#8217;m doing great. Thank you. Thanks for having us.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Smoke&#8217;s not too bad for you guys, I hope, on the East Coast. You know, we&#8217;re usually the ones with the smoky forest fires, but you guys have all the fun this summer, it seems like. We&#8217;re enjoying a characteristic day here in Southern California.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />It&#8217;s been clear for a bit. It was, it was a couple weeks ago that we had the smoke, so right now it&#8217;s okay.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Well, the reason we&#8217;re here today is because you guys are 2 of the most interesting, um, not only scientists and what you do, but you guys see it as your mission, perhaps the way that I do, that we scientists have a moral obligation to share what we do with the public because they pay our salaries. I don&#8217;t even care if you&#8217;re privately funded like I am, pretty much. We&#8217;re all serving at the, you know, kind of gratitude or gratitude towards the public, and they&#8217;re our boss. And you guys in particular do, you know, heroic work in communicating real science without pulling punches to real people without dumbing it down. And I just wanna acknowledge you guys for doing that. And maybe just start with that. What do you think about this statement? I&#8217;ll start with Nayesh. I feel like what we do as scientists is important, but sometimes it&#8217;s not significant.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />In other words, I&#8217;m searching for some ancient photons. Maybe they&#8217;ll be, you know, important to understand the primordial universe. Niyash, you also study the primordial universe, but also high-energy particles, forces, and fields. Adam studies the existence of life throughout the cosmos. None of these things affect, you know, Joe Six-Pack here, you know, in El Cajon, or Joey Bag of Donuts over there in Rochester or Toronto. So what do you see as our obligation, Niyash? And then Adam, what is our obligation as citizens Well, that&#8217;s an excellent question.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />And it&#8217;s— I want to say that we are kind of like the canary in the coal mine that we— I mean, the society is this huge, humongous thing that operates and requires a certain set of skills. And in particular, we need to kind of foresee what&#8217;s, what&#8217;s coming down the road, how we could survive things like catastrophes, pandemics, climate, uh, climate catastrophes, all sorts of things, bad things that could happen. And also the good things can potentially happen— artificial intelligence, uh, technology. All of these things are things that, I mean, the society needs. But to get there, to avoid bad things and get the good things, there is a method to it, right? You have to learn from your mistakes and build upon your successes. And really, if you want to summarize this, this is the scientific method, right? You want to learn from experience and build upon that. You don&#8217;t repeat your mistakes, build a model, a model that works. If the model doesn&#8217;t work, you modify it, you find a better model.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />If the model works, you fortify it and you kind of make it better and better. And that&#8217;s what science does. My idea is that what we do, even though we look at very abstract things, is that we are really perfecting the scientific method in the corners that are— it hasn&#8217;t been really pushed and explored before, in places where the scientific method may not be developed yet. But then when we develop it, it&#8217;s ready to be used. It&#8217;s something that everyone else can plug and play for their Nintendos or for iPhones. Eventually, that&#8217;s going to come down the line. But somebody should start basically developing this method somewhere. And I think we are kind of the pioneers that are doing it for the first time.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, you just left off the highest form of technology, which is the podcast, right, Adam? Adam, you, uh, and I, I want to recognize, uh, you, you&#8217;ve, you&#8217;ve been writing for longer, uh, than either Naish and or myself in the public and communicating for some, for some, uh, just incredible content that you put out. Um, but you too are also a working practicing scientist like Naish, and, and I&#8217;m curious how you divide your time. You just received an enormous and well-deserved grant from the Templeton Foundation. to really explore these ideas that I quite frankly think you are one of the major expositors of and certainly among the best. So how do you view your time between splitting it, you know, between popularization, shall we say, communication, which is a form of scientific marketing? I think it&#8217;s good to be honest about it.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Sure.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And it redounds to our benefit, but it should redound to the public&#8217;s benefit. So how do you divide that? &#8216;Cause I know my first book was being written, I asked my department chair, who&#8217;s the son of a Nobel Prize winner, Nikolai Basov, co-invented the laser. I said, you know, so I get some time off, I&#8217;m writing a book, right? And Dmitry, his son, said, no, but we will try not to punish you for writing a book.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />That&#8217;s an apt way of putting it. Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />How do you view your kind of— how do you break down your time? Take me through a day in the life of Adam Frank, Professor Adam Frank. Yeah.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />You know, I find them very— they&#8217;re interwoven, right? And, you know, I&#8217;ve I always tell young students, doing this kind of science communication is super important, but it&#8217;s more important that you have your scientific career, right? I mean, especially when you&#8217;re young, is that your first job is to produce new knowledge, and then your second job is to talk about it. So, I just— but what I find is that my popular— the stuff I do popular is usually a reflection of what I&#8217;m doing research anyway. I mean, in order to understand what I&#8217;m doing in research, I&#8217;m constantly thinking about it. And I&#8217;m, I&#8217;m just— there&#8217;s a voice I have, you know, the Jersey voice or whatever, that I&#8217;m kind of translating. So for me to understand it, for me to understand— I&#8217;m going back to general relativity right now to do some stuff. And, uh, to understand it, I just have to put it into language that makes sense to my 14-year-old self, you know, in Newark, New Jersey. And so then that just becomes part of the writing. So I find them— very, you know, they link up.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />And then, of course, you know, this thing that we&#8217;re dealing with right now in the United States with the science denial, which the insane levels of science denial, you know, I&#8217;m a patriot. I, you know, the countries that have the highest levels of prosperity, you know, are always those that embrace science. And you can see over time how that changes is like, you know, if you were interested in science in the 1500s, you went to Italy. If you were interested in the 1700s, you didn&#8217;t go to Italy anymore. And, you know, the things that are happening to American science right now are just sort of, you know, so are just mean that, you know, it&#8217;s going to be somebody else in 100 years, not us. And so I feel a real responsibility to like, you know, sort of— and I know you do as well. I&#8217;ve seen some of the stuff you&#8217;ve done like with the moon landing ridiculousness. I feel like that&#8217;s real responsibility.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, there&#8217;s, there&#8217;s— it&#8217;s so much easier, you know, Brandolini&#8217;s Law, the production of bullcrap is 100 times easier than the refutation of it. So the world is filled with unrefuted bullcrap. Um, but But today, I think what I&#8217;d love to talk about, we could talk for hours about Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson and undermining science. Maybe that&#8217;ll be a different stream. But today, I think what really kind of rankled me a little bit is a couple of surveys, one done by your co-guest today, Niayesh Afshordi, who had a book out last year that was one of my most favorite episodes, certainly my favorite book. One of my favorite books is in the back shelf in the background behind the bokeh. And it was about the war, the battle over the Big Bang. And he didn&#8217;t stop there.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I would&#8217;ve taken a year-long sabbatical, but Nayash is more energetic and vital than I ever am. So he did a survey along with Phil Halpern and a few others that we&#8217;ll talk about. And it was sort of— I have to be honest, it was somewhat shocking to me. And I did use the highest form of communication besides the podcast is the tweet, the X post. And I took to X and I wrote in my newsletter an article about it and how, you know, it was— some of it is shocking. And I don&#8217;t wanna review— I don&#8217;t wanna do a spoiler alert. I want everyone to read Nayesh&#8217;s wonderful paper that he wrote with his colleagues. But first, Nayesh, I wanna get your reaction to some of these things.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We&#8217;re gonna be talking about like what I call faith in the physicist. So how do we get meaning? How do we find meaning in a universe that seems to be cold and indifferent and maybe lifeless, although Adam is much more of a life maxer than I am, certainly. I&#8217;m a life maxer. I want to take these 2 different views. And as I say at the bottom, I might not survive the hour between you 2 brainiacs, but there&#8217;s one view that science are very logical. We&#8217;re data, we&#8217;re Spock, we&#8217;re very cold and calculating. We apply the scientific method, we act rationally, we don&#8217;t allow faith or belief or anecdotes to enter into the fray. On the other hand, some view physicists as human beings.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes, it&#8217;s true. As they say, how do you know a physicist is outgoing? Because he looks at your shoes when he talks to you. But they do. We have the same kind of proclivities. We have beliefs. We have talismans. We have superstitions. And I think to deny that is not really, A, engaging with scientists as they are as human beings, and B, kind of putting on this hopelessly, you know, burnished hagiographic halo.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So let me start with you, Adam, that which ones of these views do you think is true, or is it some sort of mixture, or do you have a third view? Where do you view what scientists do versus what we believe?</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Well, you know, I completely agree that, you know, the job of science is not to believe things, but to sort of construct arguments based on data and theory that allow us to have public knowledge. That&#8217;s what science really is, is about public knowledge. And I think some of the things that we&#8217;re going to talk about here point to something in particular in physics that has happened over the last 60 years or so with— and I want to make this very clear— with a very small branch of physics.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Right.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />You know, a lot of when we&#8217;re going to be talking about string theory or everything, that&#8217;s a tiny branch of physics, which really has gotten itself, because of the lack of data, it all comes down to technology and the lack of data, has gotten itself into a position where it is very driven by belief. It is, it is because of its nature, it has divorced itself from, you know, experiment. And experiment is what keeps our feet to the fire. So I think in that case, we can have this conversation about what&#8217;s happening. But in general, I think what has made science and physics so successful is that in general, across all of its fields in general, is that there&#8217;s a very tight coupling between whatever theory you want to have, whatever belief you have in your theory, and then having your theory get its butt kicked by new data. And I&#8217;ve had that experience. It&#8217;s a very humbling experience. It&#8217;s a very useful experience to have.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />So, you know, science is— we all have, and this is something to come to later, physicists and science in general has— there are metaphysics, there are philosophical backgrounds that are often not spoken of or not acknowledged. And that&#8217;s been a big part of my work recently in some of the philosophical work I&#8217;ve been doing. But, you know, the belief itself, like, yeah, it&#8217;s absolutely important for physicists to be really quite honest about when we&#8217;re engaging in belief and our willingness to have our beliefs dropped by the role of experiment. Mm-hmm.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Ayesha, do you feel like we&#8217;re in an anti-scientific age, perhaps because of the natural human propensity to believe things without evidence? Or do you think that science can save us from this kind of demon-haunted world that Carl Sagan, who&#8217;s every bit Adam&#8217;s kind of predecessor, Adam&#8217;s filling Carl&#8217;s shoes very nicely, Do you think that we live in an anti-scientific age and that it&#8217;s sort of always been thus, or do you think there&#8217;s something unique about this time period and do we have a role to play in that?</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />I mean, I think I consider myself a scientist and I think we definitely play a role in this. Now, whether the current times are more anti-scientific than in the past, it&#8217;s really, I mean, a tough thing to say given, I mean, This is a very hard historical kind of question and requires, I mean, careful examination. One can kind of look at anecdotes here and there and say, maybe in some sense things get worse, some other things get better. We have certainly advanced in knowledge. That&#8217;s for a fact. We know more than we used to do. So in principle, if we could make more informed decisions, that&#8217;s our prerogative. We can make more informed decisions.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />We have to develop the technology and methodology really to do it, to find how a society can behave more rationally given the vast amount of understanding that we&#8217;ve gathered across, well, across the board about ourselves, about societies, and about the cosmos. Now, that being said, scientists are humans. So this cartoon of separating scientists into It kind of, whenever, when you start talking, remind me of The Big Bang Theory, not just because I also, the name of my book is Big Bang, but it really kind of pushes that cartoon to the extreme to say that, okay, you have this scientist like Sheldon in The Big Bang Theory who is like a perfectly rational scientist. And it kind of then push it far enough, you see how ridiculous this is, that you cannot be perfectly rational as a human, that such a thing doesn&#8217;t exist because humans are humans. So, yeah, absolutely. We have human tendencies. And as much as we want to divorce ourselves, or if— I don&#8217;t think necessarily many smart people would want to divorce themselves from human tendencies. And we are humans after all.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />And these human tendencies, the ones that driven societies for thousands of years, all sorts of religions and beliefs and cults and of all sorts and kinds. They are there and they play a role in how science works, but it&#8217;s not the only thing, right? So the social dynamics, that part of humanity is there, but there is experiment. And that&#8217;s, as Adam and you were highlighting, and I definitely a big fan of that, experiments. And it&#8217;s really just the humility, if you want to say, the humility that you could be wrong. You could be proven wrong one way or another. That&#8217;s the important thing. That&#8217;s kind of what helps us get along, right? If we don&#8217;t have the humility of accepting defeat, then we&#8217;re going to— defeat of our ideas, anything basically— then we&#8217;re going to keep fighting, right?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />And then that&#8217;s what&#8217;s kind of what&#8217;s different is that maybe in the olden days, then we didn&#8217;t have really humility of accepting that maybe some of our dogma were not were not right. So we kept fighting for it. And I think what&#8217;s modern about science is that we have the humility of accepting maybe we have these grandiose ideas about nature or life or anything, but we can put them to the test. And if the tests disprove them, then we accept that and move on. So I think that&#8217;s the difference. And when we can Well, if we put that in front of our mind, that these tests are necessary and part of progress, then I think we can do better than we did in the past.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I think the, you know, part of the reason, in addition to my affection for you guys, intellectual affection, my man crush on your minds, shall we say, is that you guys both, you know, aren&#8217;t afraid to wrestle with these questions that I think a lot of our colleagues are. To be honest with you, Very few of my colleagues will talk about these things. Very few of them write books. Very few of them go on podcasts. And that&#8217;s not to say that they should do more or less or whatever. It&#8217;s just an observation. And I think, you know, to some extent they view what we do, or I&#8217;ll just speak for myself, as unserious. And yes, you should be doing only the science and you should pay professionals.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />There should be like communicators or leave it to Neil deGrasse Tyson to do this or Bill Nye. I don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s true. I think the greatest scientists in history were all great communicators. They all interacted with the public who pays their salaries and so forth. But part of the reason I think is because of what you guys do. Adam, you&#8217;re kind of focused on this interesting question of the existential behavior of life throughout the cosmos. And are we alone? And what is our future? And where do we go from here? And the work that you&#8217;ve done and how it informs maybe policy or thought, and as you said, and Niels, you&#8217;re studying the biggest things in the universe, i.e., the universe, maybe other universes, multiverses, and the smallest things, particles, forces, and fields. Is that just because of— is that a selection effect, guys, because of what we study? In other words, if we were studying, you know, nemectic superconductor behavior and, you know, type 2 phase transitions, you know, maybe we wouldn&#8217;t be doing this.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Is this a function of the subject matter? In other words, we have just great scripts and we&#8217;re just kind of middling. I&#8217;ll speak for myself again. I&#8217;m a middling actor that has a great script and is directed by Christopher Nolan. Where does this come down? I mean, should all of science kind of— would you write— could you envision a paper, a survey, Naish, about condensed matter physicists&#8217; attitudes towards Type II phase transitions? Or is it truly a universal interest and any sub-branch of science could engender the same passion?</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />That&#8217;s an excellent question. And I mean, this question of where we come from and what underlies everything, this is kind of very, very basic to our quests for— I mean, there are some very basic questions that capture our imagination: where we come from, where we&#8217;re going to go, are there others like us out there in the cosmos? And, and I, yeah, I don&#8217;t know why. I guess it&#8217;s why I don&#8217;t care maybe as much about what type of superconductors are going to be the first that will be room temperature. Maybe I should care more about them. But I mean, yeah, it&#8217;s a good question. I mean, I think if you do that survey, I mean, we&#8217;ve done like the survey that we did, we asked different questions and some questions many people don&#8217;t have an opinion on.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah. Mm-hmm.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />And like, for example, I mean, like, there was one version of this survey. I mean, you may— as you may know, there&#8217;s one big question in astrophysics, like, where did supermassive black holes come from? There are these huge black holes you see at the center of Milky Way. There are like some first black hole that&#8217;s imaged has billions of solar masses. And it&#8217;s a big mystery in astrophysics, like, what is the first black hole? we actually surveyed, like, people in a black hole conference, which were supposed to care about black holes. But a lot of people, I mean, a large fraction of them didn&#8217;t really have an opinion about, okay, so are there— maybe there were primordial black holes, maybe there were, I don&#8217;t know, direct collapse, or like first generation of stars. And, but many people didn&#8217;t care about it. I mean, it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s a, I guess it&#8217;s part of society that we have conversations about things that captures our imagination. And I suppose the thing that, are there others like us out there, or where we came from and where we&#8217;re going to go, they&#8217;re just ancient questions that we&#8217;ve talked about for generations.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />And that&#8217;s why that captures our imagination. And then everyone has an opinion about it then. Now, of course, some of these that we have answers for, like, the only question that basically we had, we had a consensus about is like, what is the meaning of the Big Bang? And that&#8217;s the one that we have a lot of observations for. We have cosmic microwave background, which is the first glow of the Big Bang. And it tells us that the universe was much hotter and denser at early times. And that&#8217;s, that&#8217;s the amazing thing that even these things—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Most important features. That&#8217;s how I pay the mortgage around the Keating house.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Yeah, exactly. Very important for all of us. And I think it&#8217;s just that there is a lot of fragmentation and opinions, even on these big questions, but then they can be settled with observations. And that&#8217;s the great thing about scientific method, that there might be a lot of disagreements, but we have a way to settle them. And in— for some of these questions, we actually find an answer, and then the community basically settles down on the experimental answer.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Adam, in both surveys that I wanted to talk about, the Vickers et al. Nature Astronomy survey from 2025, and Nayash and Halpern and the 2 other co-authors— I&#8217;m blanking on their names, but Nayash will tell us later— the word belief appears. To be honest with you, it appears early and prominently once in Vickers&#8217; survey on a professional astrobiologist and adjacent fields, belief in the existence of extraterrestrial life. And it appears only once in Nyesh&#8217;s survey, the Big Mysteries survey. And that&#8217;s around— it&#8217;s actually the only place it appears. It says it does not necessarily imply belief in a physical reality. And this has to do with the Big Bang or physical realism. But my question is, to what extent should belief appear ever in a scientific survey? I joked that it&#8217;s sort of embarrassing.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s a question you shouldn&#8217;t answer. To me, it was saying, Adam, do you believe in astrology? And a lot of people took umbrage at me and said, you&#8217;re being overly pedantic. And professors, emeritus, distinguished professors around the world took umbrage and said I was manipulative and disingenuous and a lot of nasty things that are par for the course on public discourse. But tell me, Adam. along as an option that a scientist who&#8217;s serious should even consider as a response to a survey like this?</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Okay, first, if you don&#8217;t mind, I&#8217;m gonna rewind a little bit to get to this question, because I do want to— I want to actually discuss the question that you asked right beforehand. And there&#8217;s one thing about this survey that I think is important, at least for me, right, because it&#8217;s going to separate the sort of belief from the not belief part. In many ways, a lot of the problems that are the questions that are asked here, to me, are very 20th century physics. They&#8217;re not 21st century physics. They&#8217;re 20th century physics.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />You know, sort of the emphasis on sort of, you know, what we call fundamental, you know, like this, you know, the theory of everything, you know, the black hole information paradox. These are problems that are sort of left over from a particular worldview that physics had in the, you know, second half of the 20th century about what was fundamental and what was important. You know, back in those days, You were taught that high energy was the highest field anybody could go into. Anybody who didn&#8217;t go into high energy somehow wasn&#8217;t good enough or whatever. And there was a residue of that that carried on that in a way sort of led the field into strange directions. Like, we can talk about string theory, for example, which I was around watching this from when I was a graduate student. It was one talk after the other about string theory. It&#8217;s going to be great real soon.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />And it just hasn&#8217;t played out. It just has not been successful. It&#8217;s done interesting things mathematically, but there&#8217;s very hard to claim that string theory turned out— or the whole idea, the very idea of a theory of everything. Like, why is that? Who said that&#8217;s the most important problem in physics? So I actually think that some of these problems really reflect a kind of culture of physics that was of a time. If you ask people, is gravity the most important problem in 1850? They were like, no, we&#8217;re doing thermodynamics, and we just learned about electromagnetism. Physics is what physicists do. And I think the 21st century, there&#8217;s a whole bunch of problems which are not on this list, which are going to be the central players for 21st century physics, like complexity theory, right? Complexity theory. Look, actually, here&#8217;s an interesting thing.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Go look at the last 10 Nobel Prize winners. None of them are, you know, or virtually none of them are about these questions, right? Or not the— they&#8217;re certainly not about, you know, black hole information paradoxes or string theory. You know, one of the most, you know, the 2024, I think it was, Nobel Prize was for artificial intelligence, a physicist, you know, Hinton, who worked on artificial intelligence. I think that life and complexity theory is going to be, and the nature of phenomenal experience, how does matter generate something that has phenomenal experience, that&#8217;s going to be the central problems for physics in the next century. So just to make the connection out of belief, many of these problems fall into that category, a sort of narrow branch of physics that has been called— what used to be called high energy, now sometimes gets called fundamental, where we&#8217;ve just run out of data. We don&#8217;t have any data. It&#8217;s not clear when we&#8217;re going to get data. And so then it starts becoming actually about belief.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />You get sociological effects happening that, you know, whoever is thought to be the smartest guy in the room for 20 years becomes the one that everybody kowtows to, and that person decides research directions. And so that&#8217;s where, like, yeah, you shouldn&#8217;t have belief, and we need to recognize when we&#8217;re being driven by those sociological factors. But again, most of physics is not there. But, you know, quantum information theory, complexity theory, exoplanets, you know, condensed matter. They&#8217;re doing fine. They are very close. You know, there&#8217;s no belief happening there. There is theory and experiment working together.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />So I&#8217;m sorry if I went off on that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />No, no, that&#8217;s excellent.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And I, you know, I don&#8217;t pay attention to Nobel Prizes, Adam. I don&#8217;t know if you know this. I hardly ever talk about it. Nayas, so if I were to ask you, you know, do you believe in astrology, which you didn&#8217;t do, I&#8217;m not at all accusing you or Vickers at all, although it is in their paper. in the abstract, essentially. But, but tell me, if I were to ask you, you know, do you believe in the gambler&#8217;s fallacy? Do you believe in astrology? How would you answer that? And how should somebody answer that, maybe, is a more important question.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Yeah, I guess I&#8217;m trying to get to the main theme of discussion. By the way, the co-authors of our survey, I just wanted to put that out there, was Matthew Rini and, and Michael Schreiber. They were actually from American Physical Society Physics Magazine. Now, I&#8217;m kind of torn here because on the one hand, Adam was attacking our survey.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />No, I wasn&#8217;t attacking the survey. I was just identifying that these questions, I think, are not— it&#8217;s understandable why you chose those questions, but I just don&#8217;t think those are the questions that are going to matter for the 21st century.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />I mean, at some level, we get to decide what we care about. And I mean, there were 1,600 people who cared about filling the survey and they cared about those questions. Obviously, there are lots of others who don&#8217;t. And then there are others. I mean, I care about lots of the other problems like complexity and AI and the future of physics. But yeah, so I mean, I think we all have the right to kind of have care about different things and then have opinions about them. The other question is the belief in astrology and such. I mean, anything.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />I mean, this question of belief that we should, should we have it or should we not have it? It&#8217;s a, it&#8217;s an interesting one because Again, there is this cartoon of science, which is you have to be open-minded. And then it actually, it&#8217;s funny when you start doing like statistics and data analysis, it comes back at you like with full force. There is this thing called Bayesian evidence or Bayesian analysis. And in it, basically, they have, you have 3 things. You have prior. You have the data or your likelihood. And then you have posterior. So prior is what you have without— before doing the experiments, what you think is a reasonable range of your parameters, your models, what models are reasonable, what models are not reasonable.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Likelihood is basically you do an experiment, you make a measurement, and then you multiply these 2, and then you get the posterior, which is basically the constraint. We said this model, your data prefers this model over that. model. And you may wonder, okay, if you, if you think about this, uh, ideological, uh, world in which you need to be open-minded, you shouldn&#8217;t have any prior. And if you actually talk to anyone who does this, it&#8217;s just meaningless. People talk about flat priors, that, okay, no, no model is better than any other model. But even that&#8217;s a prior, right? You could like do the change of parameters and then you get a different— that means it&#8217;s not— it&#8217;s a different prior.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />So, saying that you are open-minded or you have no prior is just meaningless. There is no analysis, there is no reasonable, sane statistical analysis that you could do that doesn&#8217;t have a prior, and that&#8217;s your belief. So, everyone brings their belief, and different people will have different beliefs and different prior. That&#8217;s not a bug, that&#8217;s the feature.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Right? The real thing is that they&#8217;re all going to do the same experiments or different experiments, and at the end of the day, they should arrive— that kind of is going to narrow down their priors, and eventually the posterior, if you have good enough data, is going to be independent of the prior or almost independent of the prior. And that&#8217;s the key, or that&#8217;s the measure of the success, is that we have to be— when I say you have to be humble and you basically make yourself vulnerable your prior beliefs vulnerable to this invasion of data and in the incursion of experiments that could narrow down or push your prior to somewhere that data takes you. And then if your models are right, eventually different priors all converge to the same point, even though you start from different places.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />So yeah, I think that&#8217;s the way science works. We have to admit that there are these beliefs, but also you have to be vulnerable, let yourself be judged basically by observations, and then hopefully those will correct your incorrect beliefs.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So there&#8217;s a Nobel-winning economist, I forget his name, in the &#8217;70s or &#8217;80s, and he wrote, among many things— I don&#8217;t think this won the Nobel Prize— but 2 rational actors, you know, using Bayesian reasoning, as Naish just explicated, they can&#8217;t agree to disagree. In other words, you do get locked into an inevitable conclusion. It&#8217;s like saying you can have your own opinions, you can&#8217;t have your own data or facts, right?</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But in this case, it seems impossible. Not only is this a metaphysical or metapsychology question or sociological question, you&#8217;re asking them these questions and surveying them properly, scientifically, rigorously, far better than a lot of the social scientists could do, right? I think it&#8217;s fair to say you can crush them. But, but at some point, I mean, don&#8217;t you have to say like, wait, you, you are answering a question which, for which, you know, you might have some, you know, notion or preference or taste. Like, I hate fish, guys. You know, everyone always says, have you tried this type of fish? Have you? I&#8217;ve said, what&#8217;s the highest compliment you can pay to somebody&#8217;s fish dish? It&#8217;s that it doesn&#8217;t taste like fish. You know what else doesn&#8217;t taste like fish? A hamburger. You know, so I don&#8217;t like fish. You&#8217;re never going to convince me.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />At what level does the— like, do you look at them and say, what the hell are you saying? Like, again, let&#8217;s, let&#8217;s use string theory. I, I don&#8217;t want to dump on string theory. People think I&#8217;m like, oh, I&#8217;m just parroting these lines of these—</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Let&#8217;s dump on string theory.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Of, uh, of, you know, Sabine Hossenfelder or whoever, and I&#8217;m just parroting. No, no, no, I, I do want to— I have looked, I&#8217;ve talked to the, the most, you know, uh, the biggest participants in the field as I&#8217;ve tried to. I&#8217;ve had 26 Nobel Prize winners on the podcast, you know, incredible intellects. And when I talked to them, you know, the only coherent answer I ever got to the question of— and I think I told this to Nayesh on his podcast last year— to what experimental predictions could be falsified by string theory from Kamran Vafa. And he said, well, string theory predicts the mass of the electron. I said, oh really? It does? I didn&#8217;t know that. And he&#8217;s like, yeah, it has to be less than, you know, 10 to the 90th Planck masses and greater than 10 to the minus 27th. But You know, it&#8217;s true, I guess.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But in the context of the string theory survey, there were many options for quantum gravity. It wasn&#8217;t a string theory survey. It was about what are your opinions about quantum gravity?</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And the one that got 18 or 19%, the largest ratio of the 2 named options, loop quantum gravity and string theory, was string theory. And then loop quantum gravity got evidence. And then there was a significant amount of people that said gravity is not quantized. And then there was an overwhelming number, but not the majority, that said, you know, there&#8217;s no opinion. I can&#8217;t answer that question. When you saw that, how did— let&#8217;s be honest, how did you react to that? How would you answer that question, Ayash, first of all?</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Well, I personally, I mean, I have like different eggs in different baskets, if you want. So yeah, I try to be open-minded, but really, I mean, there are lots of— my favorite, to be honest, is that violation of Lorentz symmetry. I think at some fundamental level that could be an idea. But there are lots of ideas out there, and I think we need to be open-minded. Am I surprised? I think I was surprised by, I mean, how small the percentage for string theory was. None of these models that we mentioned, these hypotheses, none of them have experimental support for them.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Hmm.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />So in that sense, community is kind of right to be skeptical of all of them. I mean, everyone has their own favorites, but nobody has really— there&#8217;s no consensus.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And is there— sorry to interrupt, Naish, but I think I made your colleague and friend Phil Hopper mad, you know, when I made a video a year or two ago about loop quantum gravity being— having evidence against it, not being wrong, but having evidence against it. I got nasty emails, you know, from my friend Carlo Rovelli, you know, my co-author or my co-narrator of Galileo&#8217;s Dialogue audiobook. You can get that, uh, on my website for just, you know, 22 hours of listening pleasure. Um, but, but it kind of made them mad, I think. And, you know, Phil&#8217;s never talked to me again, uh, although he didn&#8217;t talk to me beforehand. But, but I&#8217;d love to talk to him about it, uh, because I think it&#8217;s—</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And Carlo, I should say, is coming back on the podcast. in a couple weeks. So, um, see, if he can forgive me, Naya, certainly Phil can forgive me. But, but here&#8217;s the point, um, is there not evidence against these? You know, if there was some— if there&#8217;s a claim, do you believe that there&#8217;s life on Mars? And then we send rovers all over Mars, and Adam, you can, you know, chime in here too, uh, and we find there&#8217;s no life on Mars, whatever that means, there&#8217;s no life on Mars. And then you say, do you— what do you believe is the, is the presence of life on Mars? I mean, what do you say? In that case, you say, well, it&#8217;s not— maybe it&#8217;s mirror life and we can&#8217;t detect it. Yes, you could say certain things, but at some level, if there&#8217;s evidence, if there&#8217;s some evidence against a model and there&#8217;s no evidence experimentally for it, where does one go epistemologically? Naish, start with you.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Yeah, and I think this goes exactly in the direction of prior. I said that is that it doesn&#8217;t go anywhere. Basically, if you say there is evidence for or against, that&#8217;s That&#8217;s only the likelihood, but then it depends on your prior. And if you have a strong prior that there is no life on Mars and you find some kind of marginal evidence, then it probably doesn&#8217;t change your mind very much because you could interpret it in whatever way you want. If you have a strong prior that there ought to be life on Mars for whatever reason, I&#8217;m not sure why, then it&#8217;s obviously— this certainly confirms your belief. You say, obviously, okay, there is evidence. So my prior, my belief was correct. And that&#8217;s the thing.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />This is why we need— I mean, I think the role of priors is it&#8217;s not that we need evidence. We need evidence that is more decisive than your priors, than your prior beliefs. And if we don&#8217;t have that, then it&#8217;s not going to move anything, right?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So, Adam, how do you work at the different— I have on screen different levels of confidence, you know, 4 levels, evidence-based, metaphysical commitment that you don&#8217;t need. Maybe it&#8217;s called philosophical abduction, not alien abduction that you&#8217;re more familiar with. Then there&#8217;s like a working assumption. It works, shut up and calculate, right? And then there&#8217;s faith, basically religious faith, that&#8217;s not conditional on evidence, and you&#8217;re not gonna convince me to become a Jehovah&#8217;s Witness tonight, but maybe there&#8217;s some reason, good reason, I should switch teams or something. something. So it&#8217;s not which one is legitimate, but how do we not, you know, kind of, you know, congratulate ourselves too much that we are these walking Wikipedias, dispassionate, you know, rational actors, when it&#8217;s like— like Naish is clearly pointing out, it&#8217;s inevitable we&#8217;ll have priors. But I kind of feel like that&#8217;s, again, massaging terms to make us feel, oh, we&#8217;re not— we don&#8217;t have faith, Naish, we just have priors. And I mean, yes, but, but is there also another, you know, another dimension at play, Adam?</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Well, I think what really matters is that, as Nyasha was talking about, the humility, right? I mean, the difference between all 3 of the ones you were talking about and science is that scientists are willing, when confronted with data, you know, that, that goes against their cherished theory— they should be, this doesn&#8217;t always happen— But they should be willing to be like, okay, I was wrong. I mean, that was the genius of the discovery of the scientific method, because human beings were very easily fooled. We fool ourselves very easily. And it was the development of science and this idea of public knowledge, of a way that we could all sort of share in the creation of knowledge and the validation of knowledge, that we would have a method that would allow us to recognize, like, Oh, we were wrong. So I don&#8217;t think like there&#8217;s any problem with saying scientists have belief. Like, well, I had a theory for a while about how jets, you know, these, these long beams, these hypersonic beams of plasma were created around young stars. And I worked on that for like 5 years and it turned out I was wrong. Right.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />And I certainly believed in it. I wouldn&#8217;t have worked on it if I didn&#8217;t believe that there was something useful about it or that maybe this might be right. But when it came time to see that the data showed—</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Right.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />that there was a problem, then you step away from it. And that&#8217;s only my point. So, so please don&#8217;t say I was— I&#8217;m— I was not criticizing what you&#8217;ve done. I mean, this is— it&#8217;s a great, um, the, the, the survey is great. My point was that there, there are, you know, the, there are a bunch of questions there. And I&#8217;m really speaking more to sort of how the public views physics in particular, because you have people, um, uh, uh, like Eric Weinstein and everything. There&#8217;s this there&#8217;s this conspiracy physics thing going on now that, oh, physicists, they&#8217;re just lying to everybody and physics has stalled. This whole idea that physics has stalled, where really it&#8217;s this one branch because of the lack of data.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />And there&#8217;s, as I said, there&#8217;s sociological reasons that has in some sense stalled and their belief or these other sociological factors that don&#8217;t have anything to do with getting your butt kicked by data that has allowed it to sort of morph in strange directions. And string theory is just I think the poster child for that. But in most branches of physics, there&#8217;s a very short distance between having a theory and having an experiment. It&#8217;s like 4 or 5 years maybe. So that&#8217;s why it&#8217;s okay to talk about physicists having a belief, but it&#8217;s the willingness to drop that belief when you&#8217;re confronted by actual data, when the world allows you— we allow the world to speak for itself.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So we&#8217;ll get into the Astrobiology Survey later, but I do want to focus on NIASH&#8217;s survey with APS Physics Magazine, you know, first because we have one of the lead authors of it and certainly the most familiar amongst the 3 of us. And just to summarize that I have on screen here, 1,675 respondents, 10 questions on the deepest open problems, although Adam is arguing, you know, maybe there are other open problems that weren&#8217;t addressed and maybe that has some subtle effect that needs to be disambiguated. I don&#8217;t know.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And there was only one answer that cleared 2/3, you know, kind of agreement, which is amazing. First of all, I mean, it&#8217;s brilliant. I don&#8217;t know how you had the time to do it with all the other stuff that you do, but there&#8217;s— it&#8217;s really revelatory and it&#8217;s important to do it. You know, the study of physicists is important. You know, it&#8217;s just like the study, you know, ornithology is very important to birds, but they don&#8217;t know it. You know, the birds don&#8217;t know that it&#8217;s important to them, but it is, right? So, you know, what does it mean to be settled or, you know, to have consensus. Um, Naish, what does it mean to you that, that these questions of, of what answers are most presented as by textbooks most often as, as accepted— what does settled mean? I mean, do you, do you believe, you know, what is, what is, what is truly settled science? Or, you know, as it&#8217;s said on Twitter often, you know, the whole point about science is that it&#8217;s never settled.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Yeah, absolutely. There&#8217;s That&#8217;s an excellent question. And indeed, science, and in some absolute sense, is never settled. But then there is progress. And usually when I teach like astronomy, or anytime usually I talk about science, I have this kind of a flowchart where like how a scientific theory is born. And you start from a hypothesis, you make a prediction, you test that prediction. If it&#8217;s successful, You kind of, then you go back, make another prediction. If it&#8217;s not successful, then you throw out the theory or you modify your hypothesis and so on.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />So that is, I mean, that is how, at least a cartoon of scientific method. And I think the idea of success is that basically the more you go through these cycles of kind of tests and revision, the more mature your theory is. And it turns out that there are some, some theories are, are very mature, like many— the theory of superconductivity, the hyper— the semiconductors, the neutrino physics and oceanography, lots of things. And Big Bang is among them, as is, I don&#8217;t know, theory of evolution to some extent. There are lots of fossils that we&#8217;ve seen. And so many of these are very much settled. They have gone through these cycles of verification and testing. many, many times.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Others haven&#8217;t gone through them. And I think, in fact, in our book, we have a chapter we call the Religion of Science, Science of Religion. And we are kind of distinguishing between what could be a proto-science, which is kind of a belief. That&#8217;s exactly what Alan was talking about. It&#8217;s kind of a seed, like a hypothesis you start from, and you take it serious. It&#8217;s kind of like your baby that It&#8217;s your responsibility to help that baby grow. But, at some point, when it&#8217;s a grown-up, then you cannot just keep feeding them forever. At some point, then they have to kind of live on their own.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Tell that to my teenager. Tell that to my teenager. Yes.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Or my 30-year-old. Cross my finger.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Eventually. But, if things work out, if things go right, then they should do their own, become independent. Right? That&#8217;s your responsibility. But I kind of lost my train of thought.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I think you&#8217;re talking about maturity and then, you know, the sign of maturity.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Yeah, absolutely. So that&#8217;s kind of— that&#8217;s the idea is that we have to push our ideas. We have some responsibility to them. But then unless they actually go through these cycles of tests and verification, then they&#8217;re not really a theory. And then that&#8217;s kind of how you build consensus. The more someone&#8217;s idea goes through these cycles, the more people kind of start relying and trusting. It&#8217;s like building a credit score, right? The more you borrow, the more you pay off your loans, the higher is your credit score, right?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But is there, you know, what&#8217;s called in Christianity and other economic sciences, for example, the Matthew effect? You know, the rich get richer, the consensus gets more entrenched. The, the, the, you know, Eric Weinstein&#8217;s actually right, you know, that this, this is— there, there are forces. And Adam, you, you know, unknowingly, at least at some level, agreed to, as I say, to some extent with what Eric has asserted to me and many. And I always push back on Eric. He&#8217;s a friend of mine. But, but, you know, that, that the tastemakers— and even in the design of Anayasha&#8217;s survey, you know, it didn&#8217;t include certain things, and it does include things because there&#8217;s the kingmakers and the tastemakers. And there&#8217;s a lot of anti, you know, kind of consensus thought. And it goes like this, you know, the peer review is corrupted, you know, peer review is horrible, tenure is doing this and that, string theory supersymmetry has done all this bad stuff and it&#8217;s corrupted the field or it&#8217;s tainted the field in some sense.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And then, you know, there are these notions of, well, what should replace it? And then you and I and Naeesh get, you know, 1,000 emails a month about some theory that&#8217;s, you know, submitted to us. Uh, and, and I actually take those ideas, by the way, and I have monthly office hours, but you have to pay money to be a part of it. I&#8217;m not going to review your theory for free. I&#8217;ve got 100 other people&#8217;s theories and they all think they&#8217;re right, right? They all know that they found the secret and that they&#8217;ll share the Nobel Prize with me but not the money or whatever. Uh, so I make them pay and a lot of them do, God bless them. And we&#8217;ll be doing another live stream for office hours soon. But anyway, guys, how do you dis— you know, distinguish— how do you disambiguate between you know, the kind of, that&#8217;s just your theory, that&#8217;s just your opinion, and, you know, 97% of people thought, you know, thalidomide was good for mothers to take, you know, during pregnancy, and, and they&#8217;re saying the same thing about global warming or dark energy and, and so forth. How do you know when to distinguish the kind of science populism versus the legitimate critiques of things like peer review, predatory journals, p-hacking, and tenure, which I think has some negative externalities?</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />So anyway, I would say, you know, I mean, this is where I really push back against the Weinstein thing. It&#8217;s like, sure, first—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Weinstein. You got to say Weinstein. Just remember, Einstein, Weinstein, not Jeffrey Epstein.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Yeah, thank you. Okay, okay. I got issues. Uh, you know, I think like, you know, that&#8217;s not— it&#8217;s like, that is certainly not true of the vast majority of physics, right? That is true of this one tiny subdomain of physics where there hasn&#8217;t been— and there are 2 things happen. There&#8217;s been no experimental way to validate these theories experimentally. And it&#8217;s true that there was— it was super hyped, right? We had lots of books about it. There was lots of, you know, it became a sort of self-devouring media machine. And so there, you know, there&#8217;s a story there as well.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />But other than that, that this never happens in physics. Peer— as you know, I&#8217;ve worked in a— I&#8217;ve worked in astronomy and now working in complexity theory.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />I&#8217;ve worked—</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />peer review, it&#8217;s imperfect, but it works pretty well, you know? So I just really don&#8217;t see in any other field than this branch of sort of this one part of high energy, and it&#8217;s not even cosmology because there&#8217;s lots of cosmology which has huge amounts of data and you can easily validate your theory. So the idea that like this is some general problem with physics— now other fields have their— the p-hacking thing, other issues, but I&#8217;m talking about physics. Physics is on rock solid ground other than these particular domains. And what I think is going to happen in those domains is that eventually people are going to wander away from them. If you&#8217;re a young student, you&#8217;re not going to go into string theory or quantum gravity because there&#8217;s nothing to be done there. You&#8217;re going to go into the branches, you&#8217;re going to go into quantum information theory, which is making quantum computers, or you&#8217;ll go into large-scale structure in cosmology because there&#8217;s huge amounts to do there. This thing will be self-correcting. So this idea that there&#8217;s this huge problem with physics, I think, just takes one small subdomain.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />And then where there is a problem with belief, and there is a problem with self-reification. But overall, physics is very healthy and is doing like crazy insane things. Look at what&#8217;s happening with just exoplanets. Forget even astrobiology and the search for life. Like what we have discovered about other planets is phenomenal.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Naish, when you see these claims made by, again, a very good friend of mine, Eric. He spoke at Perimeter not too long ago. But you see Sabine Hossenfelder, Lee Smolin, your neighbor there, and my good old friend, right? I mean, the trouble with— I mean, how big is it really? Can we open up the kimono? Can we agree, the 3 of us, to share our cabal and what we do together, that we only hire string theorists? I mean, this is kind of ludicrous. And I&#8217;ve pointed that out to Eric many times. As well as saying to him, which he hates when I say, you know, that peer review is the worst form of scientific generation except for all the others, you know, like aping Winston Churchill. Because I think it&#8217;s incredible. And I think he peer reviews. I&#8217;ve told him, like, you get emails from people that have solved, you know, quantum gravity and that say you&#8217;re wrong.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Are you not their peers? And, you know, so we argue like brothers. But let me ask you, Nayesh, when you hear these things, I mean, it&#8217;s sort of ludicrous. I mean, you guys at Perimeter, and you&#8217;re at Waterloo as well, but at Perimeter, put on the hat there. I mean, do you— what are the hiring decisions like? You know, what do you think about, like, do we need another ex-physicist? What kind of— do you get any mandates from above, you know, from, uh, research in motions, you know, trustees?</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Or how does it work at a practical level in a theoretical physics department of highest Well, I mean, you know as well as I do, and I&#8217;m sure Adam does, that there&#8217;s a lot of human dynamics involved. Now, I mean, I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s a big conspiracy. But the fact that humans are humans, as you were saying, is— that is a fact. And the human dynamics groupthink does exist. And And it&#8217;s inevitable. So this thing that it&#8217;s only a problem in a small section, which is string theory, I mean, for one, I mean, there are always extremes. So I think there is a spectrum, and string theory or just quantum gravity happens to be, maybe by design, the discipline that&#8217;s farthest away from the data. And whether such a discipline must exist, um, I mean, you would kind of say that there is also mathematics which has nothing to do with the data.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />And it&#8217;s a discipline. I mean, lots of people that spend time caring about mathematics that have nothing to do with data. And string theory is somewhere kind of, uh, I mean, one kind of one interpretation is that basically it&#8217;s just a part of mathematics and then it doesn&#8217;t matter what the data says, right?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />So they&#8217;re just developing mathematical ideas and mathematical theories. Um, so I think it&#8217;s somewhere in that spectrum. And then I think certainly as a physical theory, it&#8217;s I mean, doesn&#8217;t really belong, but as despite the name theory, but as a mathematical discipline, I think it could be as respectable of other mathematical ideas. So I think that&#8217;s, that&#8217;s, that&#8217;s, that&#8217;s the spectrum. And now in terms of the groupthink, I think it is, it is a real thing, whether you could call it a religion or a cabal. I mean, I think again, there is a spectrum, right? You have like small cults and groups and a bunch of people who have similar ideas. And I mean, that does form anywhere, like there are lobbies and parties and such. And then sometimes it gets bigger.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />But I mean, really, there are kind of— when at the level of like Perimeter Institute or some other department here at University of Waterloo, yeah, I mean, there&#8217;s certainly— there are some people who have strong opinions and those opinions tend to drive a lot of decisions.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Very good. Okay, I want to take some questions from the audience. Uh, just a reminder, you have to be a member of the channel, not subscribe, but you have to pay a nominal fee just because there&#8217;s so many questions here, also on X and elsewhere. Um, so this question for Adam from, uh, my friend and longtime channel member Stephen Dedalus, who asks, what do you think of the famous words by Arthur C. Clarke? Okay, this is right up my alley. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. Adam, my friend Michael Shermer has a corollary, which is that any sufficiently advanced technologies or aliens are indistinguishable from God. So maybe that&#8217;s a parlay I could add in here.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What do you make of this? That this is really true. Do we put so much emphasis on technology, worshiping it, everything that&#8217;s doing with AI, which I want to discuss towards the end of the conversation? What is, what is it like sort of the most magical thing that you find about technology? And is it really like playing the role of a god nowadays?</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />I, you know, it&#8217;s a great quote, but I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s true, especially in my role as an astrobiologist. You know, technologies leave imprints that are different from nature itself. So like there&#8217;s this, you know, one of the big moves right now in astrobiology is to find agnostic biosignatures, things that have nothing to do with, you know, the things we&#8217;ve done or that how life evolved on Earth. And we&#8217;re also now trying to do the same thing for technosignatures. And the way you&#8217;re going to think about that is in things like network theory or information theory, you&#8217;re going to look for signatures or imprints that sort of tell you that something is going on here that is not from the level below, right? If, if the biosphere is built on the geosphere and the technosphere is built on the biosphere, you know, things that couldn&#8217;t happen, you know, at lower levels. So I don&#8217;t think— I don&#8217;t think— I think, you know, we— I think we&#8217;ll be able to see advanced technology as a technology, as something, some kind of manipulation of the world that could not happen on its own.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And Naish, if I, you know, sometimes I ask you this question, uh, in the following way. If, if you had a monolith, if you had a a device not unlike that in 2001: A Space Odyssey, which is where we get the podcast. The name podcast comes from 2001: A Space Odyssey, as well as the name of this podcast. All podcasts owe themselves to Arthur C. Clarke, so I won&#8217;t tolerate too much bashing of him.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />I love Arthur C. Clarke, I&#8217;m just saying.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />How can you not? Well, he had some problems too, but let&#8217;s not go there. Nayesh, if you had a monolith, if you had a piece of technology and you could You could sort of do what Feynman asked, like, what is the smallest, shortest sentence that contains the most information about the natural world? Feynman said everything&#8217;s made of whirling little atoms. What do you think is the most highly compressed piece of magical knowledge that you&#8217;ve learned in your career?</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />You&#8217;re putting me on the spot now. What is the most magical thing? I mean, if I suppose the thing is general relativity, the fact that gravity is geometry, I mean, I don&#8217;t think I can think of anything more magical than that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And even though it has these lacunae, these, these, these, you know, gaps that we don&#8217;t understand, but that&#8217;s where the fun is, right, guys? When you guys have your students, you don&#8217;t say like, work on the solved thing. Like when you see there&#8217;s a flaw, there&#8217;s something wrong. I always say flaws lead to new laws. Like if you find something Because the steady state had all these flaws, my late, great officemate, Jeff Burbidge, hated the Big Bang. Anytime someone would come to speak and say the words Big Bang, he&#8217;d say, harrumph. He would literally say harrumph in a British kind of accent.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Okay.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Once I heard him, when I showed him what bolometers look like, he said, that&#8217;s so cool, that&#8217;s awesome. But that was about as far as I could get. When we learn that, you know, these things were taken for granted, the universe, you know, I always say if you put a ping pong ball with the year on it, uh, back to 5000 BC, you know, when the Zoroastrians and the— and others were, you know, just developing science, you said, what is the model of the universe that you believe in, to the physicists of the time, right? And I actually would have said steady state or cyclic or whatever. And now we know it&#8217;s very different. Uh, but that&#8217;s only in the last 100 years. It&#8217;s quite amazing, right, that, that we&#8217;ve done so much, and maybe that&#8217;s why the public expects us, A, to produce technology on demand, like, you know, kind of slot machines that pay out Nobel Prizes, or they expect us to be infallible. And I think, you know, what I see in your kind of taste— both of you guys have exceptional taste as physicists, for coming on the right podcast, of course— but also in what you choose to do.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Thank you.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Like, Naishe, you could do a million other things. You could be making 10 times what you make, you know, working in private industry or some hedge fund somewhere, right? But, but when you think about what you want to do, you only have this limited amount of time left. What is going to be your focus? Has this survey affected you and made you maybe reevaluate? What do you want to do? What are the remaining mysteries that you feel you could do? Because we only have finite energy, attention, and resources. Well, has it changed you at all?</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />I mean, you&#8217;re kind of Touching all the pain, pushing, pointing to the pain points, basically.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />That&#8217;s my job.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Yeah, exactly. I mean, it&#8217;s, yeah, maybe I should let go of everything now and switch fields. But I mean, let me tell you something. I&#8217;m actually very excited about AI and how it&#8217;s going to revolutionize how we do kind of science and humanity in different ways.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />How so? Say more about that. How are you using it on a daily basis? And Do you use it for research or is it just like a super secretary?</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />It&#8217;s very much— I&#8217;ve kind of used it as like anything, like a super secretary, a student, a colleague, like any kind of— well, not necessarily. I haven&#8217;t used it as a plumber yet, but almost all the other things that I will probably soon, but not yet. But I&#8217;m really excited about how kind of it&#8217;s organizing, it&#8217;s organizing knowledge in a much more systematic way. And I feel— and it&#8217;s progressing so rapidly that I mean, I suppose it could be scary that at some point it gets out of hand. That&#8217;s obviously the doomsday scenario. But I&#8217;m much more excited that, I mean, because we are at the end of the day, our job as scientists to organize knowledge, right, to make sense of data, right? And AI, it can deal with data much better and, and kind of find patterns much faster than we can. And I&#8217;m, I&#8217;m kind of excited that it&#8217;s gonna start making connections that it was just maybe in 100 years won&#8217;t be possible for us, but it&#8217;s gonna start doing it. So I&#8217;m excited about that.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />And I mean, this survey just says that we need We need a break. We need a savior. I don&#8217;t know. In a good day, maybe AI is that savior. Maybe we managed to fail each other, but maybe AI will save us. Maybe that&#8217;s a good place to end. I don&#8217;t know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />All right. Well, on that note, I would like to both thank you and give you both an opportunity to let people know what you&#8217;re working on, what you&#8217;re excited about. Adam, you&#8217;ve got a newsletter and a new grant, and I&#8217;d like to hear more about that very briefly before we wrap up.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Yeah, so the newsletter is called Everyman&#8217;s Universe, and I cover all the kinds of things I&#8217;m interested in from the physics of life, you know, sort of philosophy, even, you know, human spirituality, you know, climate change and the human future, all that kind of stuff. And then, yeah, this new work we&#8217;re doing on the physics of what we call the physics of agency, because to me, you know, what&#8217;s interesting to me about the survey, and again, I thought the survey was beautifully done, very expertly done. But what it points to, to me, and this is the role of AI, is that really the most important question in science and physics right now is why is life different? The machine metaphor for life on multiple levels fails. It just, we see this all the time. And this grant that we&#8217;re doing is to really understand from a physics point of view, clearly life is made out of stuff, but it&#8217;s not just stuff. Something else, something else, which is really more on probably the level of causality or organization We need new, truly new ideas about the physical world to embrace life. So that&#8217;s super exciting. I&#8217;ll be covering that in the podcast— not the podcast, the newsletter.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Also, we do have a podcast with Marcelo and Evan Thompson, my co-authors on the book The Blind Spot, called Life, the Universe, and All the Rest. So that&#8217;s also—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, it seems like the convergence of chemistry, biology, and complexity is something that really hasn&#8217;t been approached. And as you said, it seems like you&#8217;re taking a panoptics and optic approach to it, from everything from the building blocks of, you know, information and complexity all the way up through, you know, the highest form of life, which is of course the podcast. So, and the newsletter, uh, both have, uh, well, Nayesh, we gotta get you a newsletter, my friend. You, you&#8217;re too interesting.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />You gotta start one.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Too many things, too many things. But maybe I get one of my AI agents to start a newsletter.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, that&#8217;s right. You can&#8217;t spell, you know, Nayesh without AI, right? Well, gentlemen, thank you so much again for what you guys do in the, you know, pencil and paper, but also for what you do with your voice and your platforms. I think it&#8217;s incredibly important that we have people at the top of their craft, doing things for the sake of, you know, heaven or the sake of humanity, which is what we owe people as citizen scientists, you know.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />2 different countries, but one major worldview, which is to promote good science and be honest and have integrity. And I just appreciate you guys and what you do, and I thank you for coming on. We&#8217;ll have to do a part 2 and maybe bring some other guests into the conversation as well. But thank you guys for staying up. on a late afternoon post-doing. I mean, you guys had a full day before you. I&#8217;m still in the middle of my day. You were on PhD committees, both of you guys, making me feel like I&#8217;m a slacker.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But, but, you know, we do have the best, as I said, 3-hour-a-week job in the world. The hardest, but also the best. Thank you guys so much. It&#8217;s been a real honor and a pleasure.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Thank you. It was a real pleasure. This was really fun. Thank you both.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Thanks, guys. Have a great rest of your night.</p><p>Adam Frank:<br />Bye.</p><p>Niayesh Afshordi:<br />Take care. See ya.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Bye.</p>								</div>
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		<title>Annie Jacobsen: How One Lab Leak Ends the World in 6 Days</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/annie-jacobsen/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2026 21:01:38 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Annie Jacobsen: How One Lab Leak Ends the World in 6 Days Transcript Annie Jacobsen:COVID had a 1% death rate. 1%. Pneumonic plague, you get it and you don&#8217;t get antibiotics inside of 24 hours, you&#8217;re dead. With 100% case fatality rates. Brian Keating:Is it up to us? And what can we do? Annie Jacobsen:I&#8217;m talking to presidential advisors, secretaries of defense, STRATCOM commanders, epidemiologists, directors of Operation Warp Speed, people who have their hand on the pulse. He gave me this line which just floored me. He said, you know, Annie, in a large-scale biological attack, There&#8217;s nothing you can really do to prevent it. You can only handle mitigating extermination. Essentially, a kid in a basement, with the help of a computational system, an AI system like Claude, could potentially make this kind of bioweapon. And that&#8217;s the fundamental danger. Bio is very, very, very different. I take readers from outbreak to anarchy in 6 days. Annie Jacobsen:Instead of being home under the covers, not infecting people, you&#8217;re out disco dancing&#8230; Brian Keating:Hello. Annie Jacobsen:&#8230;in a very crowded, crowded place, and you&#8217;re essentially in the middle of a superspreader event. That&#8217;s straight-up dark-hearted evil. If there is a lab leak, if the outbreak can be shut down in the first 12 to 24 hours, you can actually prevent the dystopian ending. But once it&#8217;s 24 hours, once it&#8217;s 48 hours, 96 hours, it&#8217;s out of the bag. Brian Keating:What scenario scares you more, nuclear war or biological war? Quick thing before we start. Most of you watching this aren&#8217;t subscribed. If you&#8217;ve ever gotten something out of one of my conversations, subscribing is a single thing that decides whether guests like Andy say yes to the next pitch to the episode. The scenario book that you&#8217;ve written this time is also kind of in a similar genre as, as your previous book, which is just some of the— I call it, um, hard science fiction. You called it science fact. I agree, except up to the point when There&#8217;s actually a disaster that&#8217;s going to take place in this book. And it&#8217;s very hard to talk about books that are A, embargoed, and B, I don&#8217;t want to give away too much of this. Annie Jacobsen:You know, I sometimes say in my tweets and such, spoiler alert, it has a dystopian ending. Brian Keating:That&#8217;s right. And for those, you know, 10 of you out there who haven&#8217;t read Nuclear War, you will have 2 treats in store for you because these books are both incredibly historically accurately researched. You&#8217;re a journalist, you&#8217;re, you&#8217;re, you&#8217;re trained as a journalist, you actually do the hard work of being a journalist, but you see it from the eye of a storyteller. You write for television. I guess the first place I&#8217;d like to start is, yeah, with, with what you&#8217;re not supposed to do, which is to judge a book by its cover. So I want you to take us through this incredible new book, Biological War: A Scenario. So tell us about the COVID the title, and the subtitle, which is just a scenario. Annie Jacobsen:Well, it&#8217;s a beautiful cover, and I have to give credit to the art department for that. And you&#8217;ve been a a lot more places, a lot more radical places around the globe than I have. You&#8217;ve been to a continent I haven&#8217;t been. Yet. Brian Keating:Yeah, we may take you there. Annie Jacobsen:Yeah. You know, Biological War: A Scenario follows in the vein of Nuclear War: A Scenario. Not that I expected to write a follow-on book, although when I was reporting Nuclear War, a number of my sources said to me, Annie, you have to look at bio next. These are people who work in counterproliferation, a fancy word for God forbid, you know, we need to make sure that this kind of an existential threat doesn&#8217;t happen. And, you know, they&#8217;re similar in terms of the title and the front, but oh my goodness, they are different millenials. They are different scenarios. One note on your like science fiction versus something. In fact, what I like to say is it&#8217;s, you know, it&#8217;s hypothetical. Annie Jacobsen:It&#8217;s a hypothetical scenario. based on wargaming that is done at the Pentagon. And you will note, I list my sources in the front of the book, not the back. Brian Keating:Yes. Annie Jacobsen:My first 6 books have the sources in the back, but I want readers to realize, because I&#8217;m now writing scenario, that this is who she spoke with. And so you realize I&#8217;m talking to former presidential advisors, secretaries of defense, StratCom commanders, epidemiologists, directors of Operation Warp Speed, people who have their hand on the pulse, if you will. And one of the individuals in this book I was fortunate to interview was Colonel, retired Colonel Tom Earhart, who worked in the Pentagon for a very famous office there called the Office of Net Assessment inside the Office of the Secretary of Defense. It was run for decades by a guy called Andy Marshall. They called him the Wizard. Brian Keating:Hmm. Annie Jacobsen:And the wargaming that was done in there is deeply classified, but Colonel Earhart helped me to understand what What it is, how it works. And most importantly, he gave me this line, which just floored me and became a lot of the scenario, which is when he said, you know, Annie, in a large-scale biological attack, there&#8217;s nothing you can really do to prevent it. You can only handle mitigating extermination. That freaked me out. And that became a real locus of this book. Yeah. Brian Keating:compare the two. I know that&#8217;s like asking you to compare your children, although when I do that with my mom, she&#8217;ll say, oh, it&#8217;s like comparing my left hand to my right hand. I say, Mom, you&#8217;re left-handed. I mean, it&#8217;s pretty obvious which one you like better. But when you think]]></description>
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Annie Jacobsen: How One Lab Leak Ends the World in 6 Days</h2>				</div>
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									<h2><strong>Transcript</strong></h2><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />COVID had a 1% death rate. 1%. Pneumonic plague, you get it and you don&#8217;t get antibiotics inside of 24 hours, you&#8217;re dead. With 100% case fatality rates.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Is it up to us? And what can we do?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I&#8217;m talking to presidential advisors, secretaries of defense, STRATCOM commanders, epidemiologists, directors of Operation Warp Speed, people who have their hand on the pulse. He gave me this line which just floored me. He said, you know, Annie, in a large-scale biological attack, There&#8217;s nothing you can really do to prevent it. You can only handle mitigating extermination. Essentially, a kid in a basement, with the help of a computational system, an AI system like Claude, could potentially make this kind of bioweapon. And that&#8217;s the fundamental danger. Bio is very, very, very different. I take readers from outbreak to anarchy in 6 days.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Instead of being home under the covers, not infecting people, you&#8217;re out disco dancing&#8230;</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Hello.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />&#8230;in a very crowded, crowded place, and you&#8217;re essentially in the middle of a superspreader event. That&#8217;s straight-up dark-hearted evil. If there is a lab leak, if the outbreak can be shut down in the first 12 to 24 hours, you can actually prevent the dystopian ending. But once it&#8217;s 24 hours, once it&#8217;s 48 hours, 96 hours, it&#8217;s out of the bag.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What scenario scares you more, nuclear war or biological war? Quick thing before we start. Most of you watching this aren&#8217;t subscribed. If you&#8217;ve ever gotten something out of one of my conversations, subscribing is a single thing that decides whether guests like Andy say yes to the next pitch to the episode. The scenario book that you&#8217;ve written this time is also kind of in a similar genre as, as your previous book, which is just some of the— I call it, um, hard science fiction. You called it science fact. I agree, except up to the point when There&#8217;s actually a disaster that&#8217;s going to take place in this book. And it&#8217;s very hard to talk about books that are A, embargoed, and B, I don&#8217;t want to give away too much of this.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />You know, I sometimes say in my tweets and such, spoiler alert, it has a dystopian ending.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s right. And for those, you know, 10 of you out there who haven&#8217;t read Nuclear War, you will have 2 treats in store for you because these books are both incredibly historically accurately researched. You&#8217;re a journalist, you&#8217;re, you&#8217;re, you&#8217;re trained as a journalist, you actually do the hard work of being a journalist, but you see it from the eye of a storyteller. You write for television. I guess the first place I&#8217;d like to start is, yeah, with, with what you&#8217;re not supposed to do, which is to judge a book by its cover. So I want you to take us through this incredible new book, Biological War: A Scenario. So tell us about the COVID the title, and the subtitle, which is just a scenario.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Well, it&#8217;s a beautiful cover, and I have to give credit to the art department for that. And you&#8217;ve been a a lot more places, a lot more radical places around the globe than I have. You&#8217;ve been to a continent I haven&#8217;t been. Yet.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, we may take you there.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah. You know, Biological War: A Scenario follows in the vein of Nuclear War: A Scenario. Not that I expected to write a follow-on book, although when I was reporting Nuclear War, a number of my sources said to me, Annie, you have to look at bio next. These are people who work in counterproliferation, a fancy word for God forbid, you know, we need to make sure that this kind of an existential threat doesn&#8217;t happen. And, you know, they&#8217;re similar in terms of the title and the front, but oh my goodness, they are different millenials. They are different scenarios. One note on your like science fiction versus something. In fact, what I like to say is it&#8217;s, you know, it&#8217;s hypothetical.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />It&#8217;s a hypothetical scenario. based on wargaming that is done at the Pentagon. And you will note, I list my sources in the front of the book, not the back.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />My first 6 books have the sources in the back, but I want readers to realize, because I&#8217;m now writing scenario, that this is who she spoke with. And so you realize I&#8217;m talking to former presidential advisors, secretaries of defense, StratCom commanders, epidemiologists, directors of Operation Warp Speed, people who have their hand on the pulse, if you will. And one of the individuals in this book I was fortunate to interview was Colonel, retired Colonel Tom Earhart, who worked in the Pentagon for a very famous office there called the Office of Net Assessment inside the Office of the Secretary of Defense. It was run for decades by a guy called Andy Marshall. They called him the Wizard.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Hmm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And the wargaming that was done in there is deeply classified, but Colonel Earhart helped me to understand what What it is, how it works. And most importantly, he gave me this line, which just floored me and became a lot of the scenario, which is when he said, you know, Annie, in a large-scale biological attack, there&#8217;s nothing you can really do to prevent it. You can only handle mitigating extermination. That freaked me out. And that became a real locus of this book. Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />compare the two. I know that&#8217;s like asking you to compare your children, although when I do that with my mom, she&#8217;ll say, oh, it&#8217;s like comparing my left hand to my right hand. I say, Mom, you&#8217;re left-handed. I mean, it&#8217;s pretty obvious which one you like better. But when you think about these, the role that I thought of as a physicist was how important, like you just said, you call it wargaming, we would call it simulation. How do you back that up with the report? How do you get this gripping, just violent, mind-melting detail without compromising? I mean, you don&#8217;t have security clearance. I mean, right? How do you do that on a practical level?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />How do they give you the access that you have and how much of it has to be kind of conjecture on your part, shall we say?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah, that&#8217;s a really interesting long conversation, but the short version of it is, and first of all, you&#8217;re absolutely correct that I don&#8217;t have a security clearance. And also really important to know is I do not receive classified information. People often, I&#8217;ll be on other podcasts from, how&#8217;d you get all this classified information? I don&#8217;t get that because my sources would be violating their security clearances if they gave me that information. And so what&#8217;s interesting is I&#8217;m taking up to the edge of what can legally be known. And that has to do with the fact that many of these operations that are highly classified, there are parts of them that become unclassified or declassified, and the public doesn&#8217;t really ever know about them.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And a lot of times that&#8217;s me learning keywords that I might use to request something from the National Archives. And so I&#8217;m always sourcing my stories. They&#8217;re kind of like a big puzzle, and there&#8217;s different pieces of the puzzle. Firsthand sources, always in quotes. You know, you can go to the notes and see, oh, she found this out in the National Archives. That&#8217;s where this is from. Or other journalists&#8217; work. I stand on the shoulders of many, many incredible reporters who&#8217;ve come before.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Before this gets any darker, it&#8217;s worth saying what Annie thinks the point of her book actually is. The really challenging part for me with your writing is that you&#8217;re You&#8217;re, you&#8217;re so damn good at it. Um, it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s terrifying. I told my wife I was talking about it. She&#8217;s like, how does Annie sleep? Like, when you talk about these things, I mean, you know, spoiler alert, nuclear war goes through 24,000 years of human history, you know, from 88 minutes ago to 24,000 years in the future. Biological war takes place on a much sharper timescale. Plus, it&#8217;s very vivid. You know, we haven&#8217;t been through, you know, none of us really lived through, you know, Hiroshima and things like that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We can talk about it abstractly.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But we all lived through COVID and we all saw what happened. And there&#8217;s many parallels in here. You do a very careful job distinguishing between what would be used as a weapon versus what would be used for rational sort of production. And the thing that most struck me when I had Katalin Karikó, winner of the Nobel Prize in Physiology for the COVID vaccine, we&#8217;ll talk about her in just a bit. But I said, is gain of function, is that really so bad? I mean, when I had COVID, I had COVID once, I had a vaccine, I didn&#8217;t have all the boosters, and I just couldn&#8217;t take it after a while. And, you know, so I did have the vaccine, I had a booster, and that was it. But when I had COVID after getting the vaccine, after having the booster, I lost my sense of taste and smell for a while. And so I lost, I lost weight.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I, I say, I like to say I dropped 5 pounds from my, my chin to my stomach. Now, I dropped 5 pounds, I lost weight. And I thought, well, you know, what if there was, you know, God forbid, because millions of people died. The vaccine definitely saved millions of people, right? And my friend, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, who&#8217;s now the director of the NIH, who&#8217;s been in this chair, so to speak, he was very big proponent of the vaccine, so let&#8217;s not get too politicized unnecessarily. But are there beneficial reasons that the average person might, might say, you know, maybe we shouldn&#8217;t stop gain-of-function, which is, you know, plays a role in this book, which we&#8217;ll talk about? Is gain-of-function always a bad thing?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Gain-of-function, for people who are listening or watching who aren&#8217;t professors, um, and didn&#8217;t almost win the Nobel Prize, gain-of-function is like— it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s very much like it sounds. gaining functions. So it&#8217;s a form of genetic modification, of genetic engineering, where you&#8217;re looking at a pathogen. And of course, for viewers, listeners, a pathogen can either be a virus or a bacteria. In the scenario, I go with bacteria for reasons we get into, but you are genetically modifying that so that it gains new function. And the 3 most important functions to be gained when you&#8217;re thinking about modification in this world of, is it really dangerous or is it really positive? Do the risks outweigh the rewards in this debate? Would be virulence, right? Like you can make something more lethal. Transmissibility, you can make it more contagious. And can you make it defy a medical countermeasure?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Hmm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />So can you make it sort of override an existing immunity that you might have from a vaccine, can it override an antibiotic you might take in the case of a bacteria? So, the proponents of gain-of-function will say, absolutely, the reason we do those experiments is we need to be prepared in the event of a pandemic, an epidemic or a pandemic. We have to be able to get at it fast. And the only way to do that is to understand what a bad guy could maybe do.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />So, it&#8217;s this very catch-22 situation. What comes first, the chicken or the egg? Now, the people who are against like sort of very anti-gain-of-function, including Colonel Erhardt, who called it evil, including Andy Weber, who has decades in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He served under the Obama administration, back to the Reagan administration. He&#8217;s really a veteran in understanding this. He told me that he believes that gain-of-function is a euphemism for biological weapons engineering.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Wow.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And biological weapons engineering is illegal.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />To understand why an accident is the scenario, you need to know how many of these labs there are now and where they are. To me, that does sound— yes, of course, we have to talk about, you know, the lab leak and the kind of— the way that it happens in this book, you know, is sort of unexpected. I mean, nuclear war, you know, when I saw the title for that book years ago and I fell in love with it, you know, I thought, oh, Russia&#8217;s launching a war, you know? And it was right after the invasion of Ukraine, and everything was just like— everything you do is like, Very topical, very timely. I was like, okay, so it&#8217;s coming from North Korea and that, you know, obviously spoiler alert, but for a 4-year-old, 3-year-old, right? So we could spoil it. All right. And in that, in that context, that was a little bit of a surprise. And then everything goes haywire, right? And that was an intentional act of war on behalf of North Korea. We&#8217;re not really sure why, but you know, it does happen right here.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It, it, it&#8217;s not, it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s sort of the munitions of a war that are being created. So we should set the stage. The premise of this book is different. It&#8217;s not an active attack. It&#8217;s a sort of a passive attack. The results are equally as catastrophic, some ways more horrifying, as we&#8217;ll talk about. But let&#8217;s set the stage for the listener or viewer, um, who hasn&#8217;t read it, because it comes out today. Um, so go ahead and get it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I recommend the audiobook because Annie reads all of her books, and I just— you have a great voice. I mean, there&#8217;s no denying it. It&#8217;s very mellifluous, is the way I describe it. So let&#8217;s set the stage. Let&#8217;s go back to where it is, uh, takes place. I have my handy globe here.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So it takes place in Siberia. So let&#8217;s start there.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />The inciting incident.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes. The inciting incident. So it&#8217;s in Siberia. Let&#8217;s take us there.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yes. Before I do that, let me just set the stage with this concept, which is that in looking at doctrine of how biological war is looked at, both at the Defense Department and at FEMA, okay? And also at the US Department of Health and Human Services, which would be in charge of like the nation&#8217;s public health were something to happen in the United States, in all of that doctrine, Planning Doctrine, listed in biological— in the BW category, is a biological— a catastrophic biological incident or attack. And that is— when you are a reporter and you suddenly ding, ding, ding, that is a moth— mic drop moment because you realize, oh, this is not just biological warfare in the old-school sense of like, you know, let&#8217;s drop some biological bombs on them. Not like the movie. An incident means an accident. It means a lab leak. It means a lab escape.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Regardless of how it happens.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Regardless of how it happens. And that is profoundly dangerous. I mean, throwing out a number here, BSL-4 labs, biosafety level 4, the spacesuits that everybody sees in the movies. There were 2 in the United States before 9/11. There are now 17, 15 or 17, 2 of them are being constructed. BSL-3 labs, which you can work with plague, hantavirus. I mean, these are serious pathogens. There are 3,500 around the world.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, there&#8217;s some here in San Diego.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And many of them in 110 countries are in places that are actually current war zones. And so now consider the idea of an incident as a lab leak or a lab accident, and then you might realize why I began the scenario that way. Because you cannot— there can be no arguing of like, that could never happen, because accidents happen.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Mm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And so there is a lab accident in Siberia at a very famous BSL-4 lab called Vector. And there was an accident at Vector in 2019 where a building caught on fire. And I always want readers to know, I do those little references to that so you can realize you are reading science fact, not science fiction. Yes.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I want to go back to what you just said about any modality in which it escapes. You kind of divide things— biological warfare before escape, before accident, before intentional leak. I want to start with that because to me as a scientist, and having interviewed benchtop scientists, biologists, Nobel Prize winners, like I said, like Katalin Karikó, perfect example She was working on, you know, recombinant DNA, which also plays a role in the book, which was established— you know, first discovered and won the Nobel Prize in 1971, I think you talk about in this book. They&#8217;re doing things for the sheer scientific thrill, the challenge, the desired curiosity that all great scientists have. And then maybe later it&#8217;ll have some application. Although in her case, she had a torturous career. She was threatened with deportation by her postdoc advisor. She&#8217;s a stoic.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />She actually ended up forgiving him. And he tried to have her removed from the country with a young child. She had all of her lab equipment thrown out. out of the bench at UPenn, lesser of the Ivies compared to Brown and Princeton. And it was, you know, thrown out unceremoniously. She was kicked out. And then, okay, when she wins the Nobel Prize, then they try to retroactively reinstate her as faculty, to which she said, quite rightfully, F you. And basically—</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Wow, what a story.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />She&#8217;s an amazing person. I&#8217;d love to introduce you guys next time she&#8217;s— she visits here quite frequently. But she explained in such— getting chicken&#8217;s eggs from her father in Hungary to do, you know, simple tests on how different bacteria and salmonella and things as a child. And then that carried through to her and sustained her as an adult. And then you have the people on the other side of the lab bench, what we call translationalists, that take it from a laboratory, from a university, from a research setting, and then they want to make money or they want to make weapons with it. What would you do in that situation? How do you advise a young scientist, many of whom are listening, Nobel laureates listen to this podcast, how do you advise them? Because at a certain level, where does it stop with a lot of the nuclear scientists that you talk to? deeply regretted their involvement, as you talk about in your book, in Area 51 and, and, um, Paperclip as well, right? You did the firsthand research. A lot of them, including our late, great mutual friend Herb York, regretted it to some extent. How do you stop them? Or is it ethical to stop them? How would you— how do you handle that? Do you kind of kill baby Hitler? What level do you intervene? Or do you not? Is it not right to intervene?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I mean, I&#8217;m not a scientist, so I, I don&#8217;t— I can&#8217;t answer that question. But I can certainly, and always do in all of my books, raise that issue for scientists to think about for themselves. And I am just simply relaying stories of, you know, historical stories of scientists on the record struggling with this, you know, complex question, usually later in their life after they have done something often that they regret.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s right.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And, or maybe regret is too strong of a word. Maybe it&#8217;s sort of wish they had thought through a little bit more. And the best example or certainly in this book, is you mentioned Paul Berg, who really has that origin story of recombinant DNA. Again, sounds just— it is just like it sounds, like you recombine DNA. And this was done in 1971 in a lab in Stanford University. And I quote Berg giving interviews later, he won the Nobel Prize, talking about how we weren&#8217;t even thinking of nefarious use of this, you know, and Then later he says, or one of his colleagues says, we should have. Because that time, that moment in time in history is so important to the question you&#8217;re raising from a sort of real locus of the shift about biological weapons. So many people don&#8217;t realize that once upon a time, biological weapons were legal.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />They were legal in the United States. They were legal, meaning they weren&#8217;t illegal.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And the United States was building a massive arsenal of biological weapons. This is on-the-record known work, primarily at Fort Detrick in Maryland, but also at several other places around the country. And starting in 1969, President Nixon just sort of mysteriously— there&#8217;s air quotes around that— decided to give up the biological weapons arsenal. You know, he talked about them being repugnant to the conscience of mankind.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Hmm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And And the treaty, as a result, the Biological Weapons Convention Treaty, which is also known as the BWC, that was signed by all these nations starting in 1972, including Russia.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Hmm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And the reason why I choose Siberia, Russia, as the lab leak, the vector lab, is because there&#8217;s historical precedent of Russia absolutely kind of crossing its fingers behind its back as they signed this treaty. They began, by their own admittance of their scientists that defected to the United They began a colossal biological weapons program. And so, when everyone else, like the United States, was destroying its arsenals, the Soviets were not only not destroying theirs, but they were building new weapons using recombinant DNA technology that they, in essence, stole from Bert.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What do you think is their motivation? I mean, they have more nuclear weapons than they did for a long time. The missile gap was closed in the &#8217;60s. What would be their motive? I mean, play armchair psychologist for a moment. What is their rationale? I could see a rogue state wanting to do it because it&#8217;s a poor, you know, crazy warlord&#8217;s version of a nuke, but why would they do it?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Well, I don&#8217;t have to play armchair speculation because it&#8217;s on the record. Because a number of the Soviet biological weapons engineers defected to the United States in the 1990s. And they came here and they told us what they were doing and they told us why they were doing it. And the reason was twofold. One, they were told by their powers that be, their military minders, that of course the United States was cheating on the treaty. Of course they were making biological weapons.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Projections.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />That was the one, which, you know, historically is not true. As far as I know, that is not true. As far as I know, we really did spend 214 weeks destroying our arsenal. They were told that. And then the second point is that they were told, listen, America, the West hates the Soviet Union so much, they will do anything to annihilate us. And so we have to do anything to annihilate them. You know, lie, cheat, steal, kill, et cetera, et cetera. And those two really disquieting concepts underpin the whole narrative.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Mm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />You know, this idea of paranoia, this idea of you cannot trust anyone. So if there&#8217;s any sort of ballast to that that I think the book offers, it&#8217;s to try and really have people reconsider how dangerous mistrust and paranoia are, both in an individual and in a nation.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Do you feel somewhat paradoxically more hopeful now that no nukes have been exchanged in this current conflict in the Ukraine, or do you feel even that we&#8217;re still on this razor&#8217;s edge?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Well, certainly, it&#8217;s like a profoundly great thing that no one has been crazy enough to use a nuclear weapon. And Russia often threatens tactical nuclear weapons, which they have in their arsenal. We do not. Right? And we do not for a reason, because they would be too easy to use. But, you know, I make it really clear in Nuclear War that from my experience and my understanding and everything I have learned about it is that everybody in the business of preventing nuclear war knows that if nuclear war begins, it only ends in one way, which is total annihilation. And so I would say you can&#8217;t use nuclear weapons. So is it a good thing? Of course it is. And does it make you wince every time, you know, Putin or Lavrov or somebody suggests that they might be used? I mean, I just, you know, hold my breath.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Bio is very different. It&#8217;s—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />and again, that idea of an accident, an incident, a lab leak, So not far from this campus is Illumina Genomics, great many Nobel laureates, including, you know, hopefully future guest Frances Arnold from Caltech. Hopefully she&#8217;ll be— she&#8217;s a board member. And there&#8217;s sort of the industrial version or the professional version of 23andMe, which recently went through bankruptcy, then emerged. And there was a great, you know, concern that, you know, people&#8217;s DNA would be used against them to tailor, you know, handcrafted bioweapons. Is that scenario doesn&#8217;t take place here per se? But that came to me sort of that you could basically have a much better weapon if you could tailor it. Putin happened to spit in a cup someday and Zelensky wants to get him out, they could just take him out by having some pathogen that could get to him. Are there more less catastrophically world-ending scenarios where bioweapons could be more humane, that they could be targeted to just specific incidents and that could be viewed as a proper tactic of war? Or are they always, and for all time, to be never used in any scenario?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I think of that more in the category of targeted assassination.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />No, I&#8217;m talking about that. Which is something I wrote about in another book about the CIA&#8217;s paramilitary called Surprise, Kill, Vanish. And people have been targeting and killing one another with poisons, with toxins, since time immemorial. So, you know, and there&#8217;s actually an interesting anecdote from one of the Soviet defector scientists where he He talks about, and this is back in, let&#8217;s say, the late, probably the early &#8217;80s, where he talks about someone from the Politburo coming into his office. The person I&#8217;m referring to, his name is Ken Alibek, and he kind of famously wrote a book called Biohazard. I think he published right around the millennium. And he tells this story in that book, and I&#8217;m repeating it, paraphrasing it, which is that Politburo guy comes in and says, hey, if we wanted to, Let&#8217;s just say hypothetically, there was somebody I wanted to get rid of. And if we were to put Ebola, let&#8217;s say, on his steering wheel, would he get it and die? You know, I mean, it was literally that specific.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And I&#8217;m pretty sure the pathogen was Ebola. And then you can read the book and see, you know, Alibek&#8217;s reaction. And it&#8217;s like, yes, it would kill him, but it would probably kill a bunch of other people.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And so, though, I think what you&#8217;re speaking to is very interesting in terms of science and computational science and where we are today and realizing you can do it. The answer is yes. Any question you ask me, yes. Can we target— fill in the blank? Yes, yes, yes, yes. All of this can be done. This is a major concern of everybody working in the business of preventing biological warfare. And even scarier is whatever it is that they&#8217;re working on can also escape from the lab.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah. And so would you advise somebody not to get these kinds of synoptic genetic testing? I mean, just for the off chance that they may become, you know, the next Kardashian, and then they do an interview on a podcast and they, they, their saliva gets used to go to, you know, some malevolent DNA processing. Anyway, would you advise people just like your own kind of digital hygiene, now genetic hygiene? Should we be more cognizant of that?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I&#8217;m always going to fall into the category of me not advise. I&#8217;m not gonna advise anyone of any— anything except for maybe my kids. Actually, it&#8217;s good now that they&#8217;re over the age of 18. It&#8217;s more like, here&#8217;s what I would suggest, or here&#8217;s what I would do.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />One of my favorite sayings is just don&#8217;t make me do it, you know? And that literally, like, so that&#8217;s why I&#8217;m all about information. I just think information is beautiful. Information is illuminating, and information is so satisfying because you You get to make personal decisions for yourself or for somebody who asks for your opinion that you care about based on the information you have. And you can also say, this is just the information I have.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />If you had written this book in 2019 or something like that, before COVID would it have been different? Would you have maybe gotten some things wrong in your projections or maybe the scenario, would it be different?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I don&#8217;t think I could have written this book in 2019 because I think I would&#8217;ve gotten some pushback from myself and others maybe of like, this hasn&#8217;t happened since 1918.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Since the Spanish flu, the influenza pandemic. Let me say this. It&#8217;s like, when you read the book, as you have, and, you know, I think people that have read the book say to me, Wow. It really made me think about COVID differently. So in other words, they didn&#8217;t say, wow, that&#8217;s really interesting, your opinion of COVID Right. &#8216;Cause you don&#8217;t know my opinion of everything from the lab leak or the origin story or what I think about vaccines. None of that&#8217;s in there. It doesn&#8217;t need to be.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />You don&#8217;t need my opinion. What I do is give you the facts and I give you quotes from people that are in the know and you get to think what What did that really— what does that mean? What happened? But maybe even more importantly, could it happen again?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Could it happen again? And I keep thinking about that. And as I&#8217;m reading the book, and I&#8217;m seeing the reaction, and I&#8217;m just like— it was sort of— there was an element of PTSD at some level, I have to be honest. But that&#8217;s just an indication of how vivid you are as a writer. And just, again, I wish you weren&#8217;t so damn good because it really did give me some sleepless nights. And it&#8217;ll give you— it&#8217;s the best type of thing. I joked on Twitter recently, you know, like, I have to write a book, Bedtime War, because I need to go to sleep. It&#8217;s some kind of antidote to how just extraordinary you are at telling facts and speculation. But you&#8217;re very careful in both books.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You say, this is not the scenario. This is not guaranteed. This is avoidable. But I thought back to January 15th, 2020. I was at a Shabbat dinner with a bunch of my friends, and I was talking. And one of my friends is a businessman. He travels around the world. And I said, have you ever been to China? Because I just got invited to view this astronomical telescope in China.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />to maybe be one of their external advisors. And he&#8217;s like, where? And I was like, oh, it&#8217;s actually in Tibet. No, I&#8217;m sorry, I said China, but I meant Tibet. And it&#8217;s at 50,000— you know, it&#8217;s at 15,000 feet in Tibet. And it&#8217;s a big honor for me. And there— I&#8217;d never been to China. You know, I&#8217;ve been to other parts of the planet, like you said. But he&#8217;s like, well, you— when, when do they want you to go? And I said, March, April of 2020.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He said, I think you better hold off a little bit because, you know, have you heard of COVID And I&#8217;m like, no. You&#8217;re like, it&#8217;s coronavirus. And I&#8217;m like, I&#8217;ve heard of coronavirus, who cares? The common cold&#8217;s a coronavirus. And he said, well, just hold off, you know, do me a favor. I&#8217;ve been to China, you know, it&#8217;ll still be there. It&#8217;s been there, you know, 5,900 years. It&#8217;ll be there a little bit longer. How did he know? Like, that kept coming back to me throughout the year.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Like, we spent trillions of dollars, all the 3-letter agencies there. I mean, you interview, like you said, their references. This book has more references than my PhD thesis. I mean, it&#8217;s so thoroughly researched.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Coming from you, that&#8217;s a very serious compliment. Thank you.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I mean, everything you define, like I forgot to do gain of function.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />What does it mean?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Here&#8217;s the actual first reference to it. I mean, I read, and I wish that I would listen to the index read by you, but unfortunately you wisely decided to skip it. But at a certain point I kept thinking, and they still don&#8217;t know it in 2026 when this book takes place, right? They don&#8217;t know with their trillions of dollars, their satellites that can see a plume of a puff of a cigarette over Yakutsk or whatever, they don&#8217;t know.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />what my friend knew. 2 months before it really hit here, it was shut down in March, March 13th, 2020. He gave me 2 months&#8217; notice and I actually did start preparing. I sold some stocks. I actually had a huge supply of masks, not full chemical suits, but we ended up having this good discussion. And then I felt like with trillions of dollars and the 3-letter agency sprinkled on it, they knew nothing. They didn&#8217;t help us at all. In fact, there was a lot of disinformation.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You talk about FOMO, Imagine the ludicrous idea that you&#8217;re going to wipe down a package from Amazon that&#8217;s going to prevent you from getting COVID. It was insane, yet we did it. How come with all this apparatus, we knew nothing more than my Yenta friends at the Shabbat dinner?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I mean, for starters, COVID showed us 2 very specific and frightening things. One, which is precisely what you just say, which is that all of the billions of dollars on biodefense we were completely unprepared. And 2, as a result of the misinformation and, you know, just use any synonym for that word.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />6-foot distance, the sit down in a restaurant but don&#8217;t stand up.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />The fracturing of public opinion just became intense and it has only gotten worse. And if there&#8217;s another thing I would hope about people reading the book is they would go, whoa, why am I wasting my time? I mean, obviously some people&#8217;s careers were ruined and that&#8217;s a day, but like just your average or Jane is like, you know, I have this big opinion about— okay, enough of that. Why don&#8217;t you just like really start to learn about actually what we&#8217;re up against? Because that&#8217;s really valuable for yourself and for your family. To your point about like the January 20th date and what did we know, you know, I learned how uncertain biology is. And this is— I interviewed, like, I use the plague pathogen, spoiler alert, you know, pneumonic plague.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, pestilence.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I mean, it is a killer. COVID had a 1% death rate.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />1%.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />This is 20%. 1 out of 100 people died. Pneumonic plague, pneumonia as in the lungs, not bubonic plague, which is in the lymph system. Pneumonic plague, you get it and you don&#8217;t get antibiotics into your body inside of 24 hours, you&#8217;re dead with 100% case fatality rate certainty.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />That is shocking. One of the people I interviewed at length in this is a former USAMRIID bacteriologist, Dr. Henry Hine, brilliant person. spent his entire life working with Yersinia pestis. And, you know, he explained to me that anyone who tells you they understand the human immune system, how any— really, how a lot of this works, is lying to you. And so, I loved the— here you have this brilliant person who knows so much about something, and he&#8217;s the first person to admit that he can&#8217;t possibly know everything. And we got so much wrong information right out of the gate. May I give you one specific example?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Please. Okay.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />So I reprint in the book a tweet sent out by the WHO, the World Health Organization, sort of the world&#8217;s sort of, you know, people look to it as like, they must know, they know what&#8217;s going on. They don&#8217;t use the word they must know what&#8217;s going on, although now they might. Because at the end of March, Trump had already closed the borders.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />End of March, they tweeted out, COVID is not airborne, and they put not in in big letters.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And this was retweeted by the CDC. This was also the CDC&#8217;s position. COVID was airborne. How on earth could they have made that mistake months into the pandemic? And why, more importantly, why have they never admitted that and said, we are deeply sorry, here&#8217;s why? That&#8217;s what I want to know, because I want them to say, we can&#8217;t know everything. We don&#8217;t know everything. We didn&#8217;t know it was airborne. We had a lot of scientists who didn&#8217;t want it to be airborne. We had a lot of scientists who wanted it to be fomite transmissible.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And for those who don&#8217;t know what a fomite is, that means if you, if some, if the bacteria is on a surface, I can get it by touching it. As it turns out, that 1 in 10,000 cases of COVID comes from fomites. Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It was performative theater that made you feel good about it. But a lot of human psychology depends on the theatrics being They&#8217;re there for a reason. Why do you turn off your phone on an airplane? I&#8217;m a pilot. It does nothing. It does absolutely nothing. But it&#8217;s a form of control. If we get you to do that, we can get you to do other things.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Why did WHO, because they certainly haven&#8217;t answered my question despite repeated requests, why didn&#8217;t they say, listen, we don&#8217;t know if it&#8217;s airborne. We want to think it&#8217;s not. Why didn&#8217;t they say that?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Remember there were things like protesting, it was also the George Floyd situation 2 months after COVID. COVID really broke here. And they said things like, you know, it&#8217;s protesting Black Lives Matter. These are public health issues that supersede— remember in LA there was huge riots.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Of course.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And the local health coordination said that those were sanctioned. They didn&#8217;t say that you should not gather for those. They later would say things like, yeah, you can&#8217;t have more than 5 people at your July 4th barbecue. But in the beginning times, I think that ignorance, but also perhaps motivation, thrives in low-information environments. They really wanted to have some sense that somebody was in control. Everyone wanted to feel it. But I think the mark of a good scientist is to say you don&#8217;t know. And I think there were a lot of good scientists—</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Uncertainty, uncertainty, uncertainty.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />My friend Jay Bhattacharya, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, double PhD, PhD, MD, Stanford University, now a director of the NIH. He did just a simple study like, if there is a vaccine, we can&#8217;t get herd immunity. It&#8217;s just going to— I&#8217;m sorry, herd immunity is the only approach for early stage mitigation and trying to avoid it by by quarantining is actually counterproductive. He was investigated by Stanford. He had funding taken away. Fauci and Collins made a public declaration that he needed to be taken down publicly. There&#8217;s a FOIA request for that information was revealed.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He was called a fringe epidemiologist by Collins. Just horrible. But he was asking, he was saying, look, this thing. And then when the vaccines came out, I interviewed a very famous person. I&#8217;m not going to say who it is because I&#8217;ve lost a lot respect for this person. But this person was a very, very stringent, strong opponent of Donald Trump, hates Donald Trump, is very active, one of the leading scientists online, hates Donald Trump. And when the Warp Speed was successful, he was one of the many people, along with former Vice President Kamala Harris, said, I wouldn&#8217;t take a vaccine and I don&#8217;t think you should take a vaccine. Which meant, because he would later say everyone needs vaccines, boosters, everything else, and she would say the same thing too.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />that they&#8217;re partially responsible for some people dying. They thought they were doing so much good opposing Donald Trump. Now, on the other side, my friends, you know, are right-wingers, will say, oh, the COVID vaccine, you know, you&#8217;re just a control. Like, there&#8217;ll be people in this interview, I predict, say, how many boosters did this guy— looks like he had boosters. Or, you know, did she— how many did she get? You can say whatever you want. You&#8217;ve all had vaccines out there. There&#8217;s not a single one of you listening hasn&#8217;t had a vaccine. So you&#8217;re in the club too, buddy.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Even if RFK has had vaccines, right? So, but the point is it was developed by Trump. So wait, so now you&#8217;re this pro-Trumper and you think you&#8217;re MAGA and everything, but you also are now rejecting one of the greatest contributions to science. And like I said, Katalin Karikó, greatest contributions in record time, right? So both sides are to blame. The scientists on both sides, the politicians on both sides. I think it was awful and I don&#8217;t think anything&#8217;s changed. I think things have gotten worse.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I believe they have gotten worse, but I think that the uncertainty component of it can and should really be leaned into. And you almost have to put on earmuffs against your political opponents if you are in a position of leadership and work with a gifted team from both sides of the aisle to decide how to convey uncertainty with a certain degree of authority. It sounds like an oxymoron, but it&#8217;s not. If you say— you would do this with your kids. I would say, guys, I don&#8217;t know. And then they&#8217;re like, at least mom&#8217;s like, Got some authority about what she doesn&#8217;t know, right? Because that is the truth. And, you know, information is king. Just to learn that COVID was a novel virus.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />What does that mean? Just like it sounds, new. Okay, Mother Nature mutates. And so yes, a novel virus can come out of Mother Nature. A novel virus can also come out of a lab. And then you begin to realize, well, if something is new, not only is there no immunity against it. Not only is there no existing medical countermeasure, but it&#8217;s going to take some serious get your hands dirty work to figure out a medical countermeasure. That kind of basic science, as far as I recall, was not even really conveyed ever. It took me writing and researching this book to understand what we didn&#8217;t know, what people were never explained.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />The next This part is the detail I couldn&#8217;t stop thinking about. It literally gave me nightmares. It wasn&#8217;t invented. It comes from what the Soviets were actually working on. The thing that was so fascinating, and that you did, and again, it&#8217;s a spoiler, but that&#8217;s okay, is that the virus by itself, you know, has lethality and has transmissibility, but it didn&#8217;t have the social engineering aspect of it until you brought it to mind. Now, your novelty in the Jacobson, you know, variant of this Yersinia pestis was to to add in a social enhancement called euphoria. What made you come up with that? And what is the key enabling vector that that element provides? I found it fascinating and terrifying, as usual.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Even more terrifying is that&#8217;s not from my imagination. That&#8217;s from history. So here, okay, so for listeners and viewers, in the scenario, you learn very quickly that You know, whereas pneumonic plague, Mother Nature&#8217;s pneumonic plague infects you and you&#8217;re just like, your lungs are shedding necrotic debris. I mean, you are dying, you know, you&#8217;re coughing up blood, your head feels like there&#8217;s an ax in it. And so you are like on the floor or in bed.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And instead, in the scenario, people are experiencing euphoria. And so instead of being home under the covers, not infecting people, you&#8217;re out disco dancing.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />At a rave.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />In a very crowded place. And you&#8217;re essentially in the middle of a superspreader event. Now, that is not from my imagination. That is from Dr. Henry Hynes sharing with me that when he was at USAMRIID, that is the US Army&#8217;s medical research place, Fort Detrick, which is where biological weapons were developed, you know, worked on when they were still illegal, and now countermeasures are worked on. And Hein, one of the world&#8217;s leading experts in plague, told me that they learned that the Soviet bioweapons engineers were doing precisely that. So that is his reference, and it&#8217;s noted in, in the book, which is just— and he, he said, we realized that was some pretty evil stuff.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And that real— and that&#8217;s why I chose that, because you literally can&#8217;t That&#8217;s straight-up dark-hearted evil.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s mal-evolution. You&#8217;re going against evolution, which would make it very— if something&#8217;s very transmissible and very lethal, it doesn&#8217;t spread, right?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />The only way to get that is to override it, which makes it like anti-Darwinian. I mean, this is the most evil. And the people that are working on it are medical, are physicians, the Hippocratic Oath. You&#8217;re talking about this, and I just feel like knowing other scientists and knowing, you know, people have oftentimes, I think even you, to push back with a little love and respect, this, this kind of image of some scientists maybe as being just, you know, just above everything, just so curious. They don&#8217;t have— I always say, look, scientists are like children. They&#8217;re curious, they&#8217;re imaginative, they&#8217;re creative, but they also don&#8217;t like playing with others. They don&#8217;t want to share their ball. They&#8217;re jealous, they&#8217;re petty, they&#8217;re spiteful.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />They&#8217;ll do anything. And so there&#8217;s both sides. So I, I wouldn&#8217;t say that I&#8217;d put it past anybody, but in the realm of You know, the bioweapon. And the thing that makes your writing terrifying in these 2 books, and not as— I should say, not all your books are terrifying. These 2 are particularly gripping because they&#8217;re cut from cutting-edge, you know, scientific-backed research and first-person accounts and archival research. And you&#8217;re just like, you know, such a pro at what you do. What makes both these 2 books in general terrifying to me is that there&#8217;s only one thing— I always joke with my kids, there&#8217;s only one thing that&#8217;s literally free, right? Water costs money, but the only thing thing that&#8217;s really free besides love— okay, I want my kids to love it, I give them love for free— is air, right? The only thing— we don&#8217;t pay our air bill, right? I mean, you live in LA, which is a lot smoggier than San Diego. I used to live there, uh, it&#8217;s gotten better, but then the fires came, which make a role in this book.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah, sorry.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And you talk about the fires in this book, and just again, another public policy that&#8217;s scientific that could have been avoided, that&#8217;s public policy disaster. But let&#8217;s— but you&#8217;re not political, I want to make that nuclear. But air, air is something we get for free, and it&#8217;s both the mechanism and the medium by which this disease is transmitted, and most of the fallout and the death and destruction come from new— what is it about air? I mean, there&#8217;s, you know, famous breath, from breath to air, or how when breath becomes air about, you know, someone who&#8217;s dying of a lung disease, right? What is it about air? Why is it this vehicle? It&#8217;s life-giving, but it&#8217;s also the thing that connects us. And what&#8217;s your, what&#8217;s your take on it? What, how do you react to that?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I love the way you framed that, and it makes it It&#8217;s kind of very sorrowful to think about that. But in the realm of biological war, air really means airborne. And airborne is terrifying because unlike Ebola, let&#8217;s say, which has a case fatality rate of between 60 or 90%, depending on the variant, you know, and you bleed out your odds and, you know, you bleed to death. If you had Ebola and you were over on the other corner of that room, I would not catch Ebola. I would have to physically hold you. That&#8217;s why loved ones, that&#8217;s why first responders, doctors and nurses get Ebola and die of it. Yeah. It is contact.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Airborne is totally different. If either of us had an airborne pathogen in our lungs that was a killer, you know, it would linger after we were gone. The CDC keeps a list called Tier 1 Select Agents, and it&#8217;s kind of shared with the Defense Department, with FEMA. And This is what they&#8217;re most afraid of. These are the pathogens that, to their eye, are most likely to be used. This was kind of developed in the sort of post-9/11 world to be used in a biological weapons attack, which was thought to originate from a terrorist organization. And the Tier 1 select agents always, almost always, involve something that is airborne.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I think one of the things that I keep thinking about, and obviously it&#8217;s impossible when you write books to not think about what your next— you, Annie Jacobs, and not me, or one, what your next book is going to be. And I kept thinking about this air again, and I thought of, well, what&#8217;s another thing that&#8217;s in the air, either in the zeitgeist, in the German air, in the air, in the spirit, a spirit air respiration, right? So that&#8217;s what that means. But there&#8217;s 2 things that I think about with regard to air. One is physically in the air, and that&#8217;s climate change, and the other one is AI. And I think of those 2, I guess I guess, which would be a next topic for an Annie Jacobson book, because they&#8217;re both airborne, they&#8217;re both kind of in this realm, non-physical realm, at least that you can&#8217;t see. Which one would sort of terrify you more as an existential threat? Which one could plausibly be a next scenario? Global warming, global climate change, catastrophic, engineered maybe malevolently, or AI, which could obviously be the first non-human scenario, which ends human life. Which of those 2 could maybe, if you&#8217;re working on one, you don&#8217;t have to give it away.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Again, I like the way you framed that because it really speaks to the world we are in now and moving into the future, you know? But many of the subject matter experts I work with work in these cross-disciplines because they&#8217;re looking at counterproliferation of these threats. And so, I have been given a number of ideas. Whereas you pose that as a question, it&#8217;s been posed to me like more of like a suggestion, like, here&#8217;s what I think you should do. And so that&#8217;s interesting. But it&#8217;s also encouraging because, you know, I write these 2 books now with these just like horrific dystopian endings, and yet I&#8217;m a very optimistic person, and I do sleep at night.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And that is because the point of the books is not panic. The point is pressure.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />The point is to sort of, within your own self, your own family, within your community, to kind of demand more than what we have. We can get into the real spoiler alert, which is Act 3 of the book, which is really what happens, which is really what the Defense Department, which is what all of the planners are afraid of happening in a case like this, which is anarchy, I don&#8217;t want to do that, but I&#8217;m going to do that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But first, I want to touch upon what you just said because it&#8217;s really a beautiful passage. So parallel structure between the 2 books is you talk about nuclear winter, which Carl Sagan popularized and many other very highly qualified scientists have written about it, including folks here and elsewhere, but also the controversy around it that it&#8217;s not universally accepted. You talk about that at the end of Nuclear War. But in this book, there&#8217;s a parallel, biological twilight.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So nuclear winter and biological twilight. You talk about act 4 now. I guess this is long after.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />That&#8217;s called the denouement.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />The denouement. That&#8217;s right. You literature major. No, you weren&#8217;t a literature major.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Okay.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You say this beautifully. Humans are a paradox, brilliantly endowed with the capacity to imagine and create, often also incapable of restraint. If biological war scenario like this one comes true, it will mean that the same mind that mapped the cosmos which really struck me, that landed machines on planets and the moon and charted galaxies. Again, every single dot there almost that&#8217;s not— that doesn&#8217;t have a 6-pointed star on it is a galaxy in the distance. That&#8217;s from the James Webb Space Telescope. And charted galaxies billions of years away could not safeguard its own biosphere. What do you make of that? These, these, you know, chimp primates that can do such incredible things as do this and do all the the things that get destroyed at the end of nuclear war, which brings tears to my eyes when I think about it. Just the record of mankind may be what&#8217;s responsible for the erasure of mankind.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />How do you balance this tension between, you know, the beast and the angel that we all have within us?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />So here&#8217;s where the literature major in me comes, you know, comes to bear because I think about this idea of evolution when you&#8217;re talking about the chimps and that, you know, we&#8217;ve spoke of Kubrick&#8217;s 2001 before and that idea that we have evolved into this incredible, you know, species that can do all of those scientific maneuvers that you just mentioned, and a zillion more. And how— what a remarkable time to be alive. And then I think of— spoiler alert— the third act, which I learned that the government has a plan in place. Okay, so hold the thought, the word evolution. This is the literary major reference.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />You know, then you find out if you&#8217;re Annie Jacobson and you&#8217;re researching, wait a minute, the government has a plan in place if this all happens and anarchy and insurrection takes over for itself. They have a plan in place for itself. And it&#8217;s not all of government, it&#8217;s a tiny group of people. And the plan is called devolution.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Mm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />So, it&#8217;s like putting everything a de- in front of evolution. And it&#8217;s exactly like it sounds. I mean, it actually derives from like a British term of like a secondary group of people that dot dot dot, but it really is the devolving of evolution. It&#8217;s going in the other direction. And so that is our fatal flaw, hopefully not fatal flaw, but that is certainly something that must be looked at.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />In the world in which we exist, where technology is outpacing law and justice and democracy and all It must be looked at through a new lens.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s fascinating because just hearing you say that, and I&#8217;m remembering in the book that that&#8217;s what it was called, and also thinking about nuclear war where you talk about the study that you read about apes and how they do battles and what&#8217;s the origin of warfare in general. But also it seemed to me like a normal— Darwin studied finches and galápagos. They don&#8217;t go back. They don&#8217;t lose their—</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />They don&#8217;t lose a tail.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Your thumb, right?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Well, we did lose our tail. You don&#8217;t—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />we lost it, but you grow it, so hopefully. That&#8217;s right. Yeah. Unless you&#8217;re a salamander or something, but we must be, yeah, this, this only species so capable of, of doing such great things as creating, you know, life and meaning and culture and music and arts. And again, all the things that get destroyed in nuclear war, but maybe come back at the very end, tens of thousands of millennia later.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />The literature major in me, by the way, really thinks your fatal flaw is hubris.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />How so?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Because it always is. It always is. Look at anybody without mentioning any names that you admire, that suddenly you don&#8217;t, you no longer admire them, right? And again, I really believe that the personal is the political. Like, if you look in your own personal life, you can pretty much figure out anything in politics, how it works, which is why I don&#8217;t write about politics, why I don&#8217;t write about my personal life. But you can see, like, you see somebody that you really admire and you go like, God, their downfall or their shift. And it&#8217;s like, if you really look at it objectively without having to publicly announce it, you can pretty much track it as hubris.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That came across vividly in this book when I thought of Fritz Haber, who was a German— of course, German Jew, very nationalistic, very patriotic. He invented nitrogen fixation that, that you and I benefited from a couple hours ago when we got coffee and a croissant, right? We wouldn&#8217;t exist. We couldn&#8217;t support 8 billion people without his invention. And yet, what else did he do? He not only invented chemical weapons, he witnessed them personally at his own desire as part of the German Science Corps. He would go to the trenches in World War I and he would witness the horrific death. I mean, biological war, yeah, it&#8217;ll happen over a couple— it&#8217;s awful, right?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But people in the book live a couple days, some of them, right? Not a great way to live or to die. rather, but these people, horrific chemical burns and their faces ripped off, kind of a hybrid between nuclear and biological war. Maybe that&#8217;s your next book, Chemical War. In this case, he lived to see so much tragedy from what he did. He killed millions and he saved billions. So how do you reconcile that? And again, the scientist as this all charitable, all giving, knowing, and curious, it&#8217;s just not true. I mean, we have our pettiness, we have our desire. I mean, like I said, he won the Nobel Prize, after World War I.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I mean, they knew what he did. And then his own family was murdered by Zyklon gas produced in the very same chemical processes and factories that he helped build for Germany.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />The hubris in that, I must add, is that the man he was trying to please was Adolf Hitler.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes, exactly.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Who murdered his family. And he was exiled to, where was it, Austria? And he died a miserable death.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />His wife committed suicide, one of his kids committed suicide.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />What a fascinating cautionary tale. Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And to think about this goal, like Prometheus, desiring the technology, wanting to— I like to call it the Tower of Babel. We want to be— and maybe AI is that thing. Maybe AI is, some say, humanity&#8217;s last invention. I have my doubts. We&#8217;ll talk about that over lunch maybe later.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Well, just to jump in there, and this comment I&#8217;m going to make has been rapidly increasing in the past 3 months, not 6 months, not 9, 3 months, that presidential advisors on bio, who also have kind of, you know, look at AI, look at LLMs, are increasingly, rapidly increasingly getting concerned that bio is actually the threat in AI.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Claude, which is made by Anthropic, they have a new product. It just came out. It&#8217;s called Claude Science. This is great. You know, I&#8217;m going to be able to discover the mysteries of the universe. and find out exactly what&#8217;s going on with those aliens over there. It has genomics, it has this database, it has NIH, it has all these papers, PubMed, blah, blah, blah. Nothing, not one topic had anything to do with anything other than bio or biochemistry or genomics.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />All these things are centered around bio. Bio is not the only science. I hate to break it to my biology colleagues and my friend, Gentry Patrick, past guest, my cousin. There&#8217;s other things besides bio, but this is all the AI is really— Yes, it is. You ask Dario Moti or Sam Altman, what does a scientist need? Oh, they need a genomic protein fold. No, they don&#8217;t. We need stuff for physics. Physics is the core of all science in many ways.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And I think just as you said this, yeah, it&#8217;s no surprise because these tools are somehow— first of all, they&#8217;re neural networks, right? They&#8217;re optimized, they&#8217;re modeled on the brain. I got a brain over here somewhere. And they&#8217;re modeled on biological systems. So yeah, they&#8217;re very good. You&#8217;ve heard about quantum computing.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Quantum computers have one killer application, and that&#8217;s predicting how quantum computers will work. They&#8217;re very good at understanding quantum systems. Neural networks are really good at understanding brains. The people that get jobs nowadays that are writing the best books about AI, they&#8217;re not computer scientists, they&#8217;re cognitive scientists. Princeton professor I just talked to, Tom Griffiths, amazing. He&#8217;s a cognitive science professor and a computer science professor. Yeah, you&#8217;re absolutely right. They should be worried about it because these tools—</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />are now like a 12-year-old or whatever, it&#8217;s a 50-year-old in some place on the map here can have the cutting-edge Nobel-quality research delivering and maybe optimizing things for— and that&#8217;s maybe where the greater threat could come, both on the personalization of the kind of vector that&#8217;s so precise it can target individuals, or that is so indiscriminate that can kill nations. It&#8217;s a really gripping thought to think about. I want to get to some of the research that you do because there&#8217;s just so many Like Easter for nerds like me. I mean, for my audience as well. You talk also about like thalidomide in the book and how, you know, who designs the anti-nausea medicine. I remember like my mom was like debating whether she should take it. She told me she didn&#8217;t take it, you know, in the late &#8217;60s with my older brother. He did.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />She didn&#8217;t take it. So he&#8217;s fine. But it was to, to solve something really important for mothers. You know, I don&#8217;t understand how it feels to be, have morning sickness. You know, I&#8217;ve never not wanted to eat in the morning, but, uh, but my wife went through it. But talk about that, these things that like Yeah. They do evolve, they do pathologize from some— maybe they&#8217;re actually really good. It was very good antinatal medicine.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Unfortunately, it caused horrible birth defects. And it&#8217;s related to something called mirror life that is really terrifying. If you&#8217;re not terrified already, you&#8217;ll get there in a few minutes when we talk about mirror. Talk about thalidomide and how that came from these Nazi scientists basically, and then percolated through, and then the Russians really kind of abandoned it and didn&#8217;t use it. Talk about it. what role that played or what that is emblematic of in this book and science in general.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I think it&#8217;s emblematic of, you know, you called it— what did you call it? You had a term earlier which was mal-science. It&#8217;s like malevolent.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Having written the book on Operation Paperclip, the Nazi doctors, in addition to just being horribly evil, and their goal was to really push science and put— and in the field of biology, what they were doing is trying to find medical cures for things for their own pilots. And for example, the thalidomide link has to do with the fact that a lot of the chemists that were developing chemical weapons and biological weapons, they wanted to know, they were trying to find antidotes, right? So, and they were— what I learned from going to the Bundesarchiv in Germany and the National Archives, and the real tragedy is that we, the Americans, knew a lot of this and declassified these papers, which I was able to get declassified. The Nazi scientists were experimenting in the concentration camps on the Jewish prisoners because they considered them no different than guinea pigs or rabbits. And they would— you can&#8217;t really find the antidote properly without testing on a human. You just have to spend so much time testing on an actual guinea pig.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Then you move to primates, and you&#8217;re doing human testing once all these trials— so you can&#8217;t just, like, kind of cowboy your research. And that&#8217;s what I found so horrifying. And that&#8217;s the sort of thalidomide component of it, is that the German pharmaceutical company had hired a bunch of Nazi scientists who had skipped through a lot of the trials because they were experimenting on humans. Right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />There&#8217;s a passage in the acknowledgments of Annie&#8217;s book that isn&#8217;t in the story itself. I asked her to let me read it out loud, and she graciously agreed. This is so horrible to think about, but again, I cannot not mention it. I mean, it&#8217;s fair game, it&#8217;s in your book, and I just, I don&#8217;t want to look at it, but it&#8217;s like a car accident. You must confront it because if we don&#8217;t confront it, like you said, we can still do something about nuclear war, about biological war, about bedtime war, whatever. We can still, we have the agency, and I think people surrender their agency to influencers. We&#8217;ll talk about the pernicious elements of social media later perhaps, but I want to read this passage about So-called mirror life, which is in the acknowledgments. Beyond the surveillance-driven biotechnical future lies an even greater horror.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I mean, that&#8217;s saying something for a book that&#8217;s about one of the most horrific, hopefully fictional for all time, but very hard science fact-driven scenarios that you could ever imagine. Okay, beyond that lies an even greater horror. I learned that there exists a hypothetical concept within synthetic biology called mirror life. That sounds fun. Not a mirror, I&#8217;ll look at myself. No, no. That could extinguish the entire human race. This is an area of science we should forbid, says Stanford University professor and White House science advisor David Relman.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Mirror life means engineering an organism with a reversed form of biology, a mirror molecule. This is called chimeric chiral biology. DNA has right-handedness, and this would be making an identical copy but with left-handed DNA. A synthetic organism that, if created, the human immune system will almost certainly not recognize and could not be controlled, contained, or People at the highest level say, holy bleep, this sounds really horrible. We can&#8217;t allow this to happen, Raman tells us. And yet, when it comes to making sure no one ever creates mirror life, he says the responsibility gets deflected back to the scientists. As of now, there are very few legal constraints. We have a sort of form of mirror life, at least mirror chemistry.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So these are called isomers. These are different forms of chemicals that, as I said, have different handedness. So actually, one of them is You&#8217;ve probably had in your— I&#8217;ve eaten a lot of it. It&#8217;s basically synthetic sugar, which has instead of right-handed structure for sugar, sugars will also be right-handed or left-handed. They make left-handed and the body doesn&#8217;t digest it, so it excretes it.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />That&#8217;s saccharin?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s an interesting— The blue packets. Yes, the blue packets. Exactly. So that is basically left-handed sugar.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I didn&#8217;t know that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So you can&#8217;t digest it, so your body excretes it. It&#8217;s not deadly, but left-handed or mirror life. So you take a DNA molecule, put it in a mirror, it becomes mirror And this is almost certainly happening. So how do we sleep at night? I mean, do you accept the fact that somewhere someone is working on this, perhaps aided with the aid of AI? Is it in a lab now? I think it&#8217;s almost certainly, yeah.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />That is from an interview with David Relman, who&#8217;s like one of the most respected science advisors to the president, to many presidents. And he did that interview with me on the record. You know, I chose not to put it in the narrative because it&#8217;s just too horrific. But the point was I wrote biological war, a scenario, not biological war, the only scenario, or biological war, the worst scenario. And so if you read this and you&#8217;re freaked out and then you find out, wait a minute, there&#8217;s even worse scenarios. And that was Relman&#8217;s point in telling me. And there have been articles in the newspapers about mirror life.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And the scientists that wrote those papers debated Even making it public, but they decided they certainly needed to make it public for your exact point. The bad guys are certainly doing that, some bad guy, whether it&#8217;s, you know, and there&#8217;s an incredibly low bar for entry with bio, unlike nuclear weapons, which require fissile material. You have to have weapons-grade uranium or plutonium. And we hear all about that with what&#8217;s happening in Iran. We know how difficult that is.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Right. And so nuclear weapons are controlled by a nation&#8217;s command and control. It safeguards its systems, and nothing like that exists in bio. And essentially, a kid in a basement could potentially, with the help of a computational system, an AI system like Claude, like OpenAI, could essentially make this kind of bioweapon. And that&#8217;s the fundamental danger. And I think Relman&#8217;s point is very important, is that what he was saying to me is he&#8217;s going to the White House and elsewhere and kind of raising the alarm and being told, yeah, that&#8217;s really alarming. So what are you guys doing about it? And hey, that&#8217;s better than not raising the alarm, but that alarm needs to be ratcheted up in terms of what is being done about that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And obviously I don&#8217;t have the answer. I&#8217;m a journalist, but I would hope that bringing that to the conversation is moving things in the evolutionary direction as opposed to the devolutionary.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />One thing, you know, that just came— struck me as you said that is that, so Iran&#8217;s trying to get to where the US was in 19— you know, actually today is the, uh, July 16th is the Trinity Test date. So happy Trinity Day to you, Amy. I was re-listening to Nuclear War the other day and I realized, oh, she&#8217;s going to be here on Trinity Day. How wonderful. So that&#8217;s July 16th, 1945. So at that time, what Iran&#8217;s trying to do now is get back 80, whatever years, 81 years back to that timescale. So good luck. But actually, as you talk about in this book, it&#8217;s not a fission bomb, it&#8217;s not like Fat Boy, it&#8217;s the thermonuclear bombs, the atom bombs, hydrogen bombs that caused the end of the world in nuclear war, the end of civilization at least as we know it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />The world will still exist probably, still float around in space, but very, very much worse. But nowadays the analog of a hydrogen bomb in biological war are these, are already here. They&#8217;re already here.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />That is the recombinant DNA is essentially the atomic weapon because it was very rudimentary in 1971. And that is the point with the people I interviewed who are the former handlers of the Soviet defector biological weapons makers who in the &#8217;80s and &#8217;90s were saying, here&#8217;s what we were working on. Here&#8217;s what our plague superweapon looked like. And this is 40 years ago. And so you have to say, whoa, what is being done now? And that&#8217;s, I think, Relman&#8217;s point with MirrorLayer. And that&#8217;s obviously but one example.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Of course. Now, in the case of nuclear technology, we get a great deal of benefit from nuclear technology, whether it&#8217;s in the medical realm, whether it&#8217;s in the power. We have 6 nuclear reactors surrounding us in San Diego. You know, don&#8217;t you feel great? You know, thankfully, as I said, as you&#8217;re driving down from LA, I said, you know, you&#8217;re going to pass by the 2 nuclear reactors at Camp Pendleton. But luckily you didn&#8217;t put them in nuclear wars to give me even greater nightmares. You put it somewhere in Santa Barbara that was taken out first or second. But in this case, we have benefits from it. Are there any benefits from the types of technologies that feature in this book?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Well, that is certainly the debate that we spoke of in the beginning, right? Which is really, I don&#8217;t think, you know, is gain of function good or bad? It&#8217;s like gain of function. And again, this is for people way above my pay grade. There needs to be guardrails in terms of what kind of, you know, manipulation of pathogens can be done, should be done, is being done. And I think that all begins with a motion to really examine what it means that biological warfare is illegal, that biological weapons are illegal. And yet the State Department is writing now in all of its annual reports about compliance with the BWC is saying, we know Russia and North Korea have biological weapons programs. And we know that Iran and China have weapons, or rather have biology programs of concern, which is kind of a euphemism. I think it&#8217;s pretty much clear that the State Department believes those 4 nations are actively working on biological weapons.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />So if there wasn&#8217;t so much stigma around what research is being done, if you didn&#8217;t have this idea of people cheating and doing sort of offensive work, offensive biological work, work on offensive weapons, as opposed to defensive work, because there&#8217;s a little clause in the treaty which says, You can do work for prophylactic purposes, which allows for the medical countermeasures. So there has to be some more transparency about what that actually means and more honesty about what it means. And then you can begin with, okay, so where do we go from there?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I thought of one thing as I was reading the book that you could use the types of laboratories or research, and that&#8217;s from an unlikely nexus between your previous books and, and this one, which has to do with a question first posed by Enrico Fermi, which is essentially, where are all the aliens? Right? The universe is big. The galaxy is big. The galaxy is old. The materials to make life are abundant. You know, water is the 2nd, 3rd most common molecule in the universe. You know, carbon&#8217;s extremely prolific. And a lot of that research was done here by my colleague, great colleagues, Jeff and Margaret Burbidge and Willie Fowler and Fred coined the term the Big Bang as an insult about cosmology at the time. And Fermi asked this question to Herb York, was at the lunch with him in 1950.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And it was interesting. So when, when Fermi asked that question of Herb York, and there were 3 other scientists at the table, so they talked about flying saucers in this New Yorker cartoon. And basically, uh, Fermi says, where, where is everybody? And York says, maybe they didn&#8217;t last long enough. Maybe they killed themselves.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I did not know that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I don&#8217;t know about— and then asked, obviously, which of these solutions— and we&#8217;re We&#8217;re going to—</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But before I do, I want to give you 2 gifts. So one of the ways I think that we could benefit from the apparatus, the tools, the researchers, the talent, the brainpower that we have in this book is countermeasures, but not countermeasures against humanity. Because if life in the universe can be of one of the 2 mirror isomers, the either left-handed or right-handed like, like our life is based upon, then it could be that life could come to the, to the planet and they could be very different from us. In fact, they could be mirror life. They could be microbes, they could be bipedal, they could be sentient plasmoids, like, uh, apparently Alina Luna has been talking about interdimensional beings. Anyway, we&#8217;ll, we&#8217;ll talk about that over, over a cocktail someday. But one way that material can get here is via what&#8217;s called panspermia, which is something that Fred Hoyle worked on. And actually Francis Crick worked on this, this idea that life on Earth could have originated elsewhere in the galaxy and then been brought here by meteorites.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So this is a meteorite. It&#8217;s one of many.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Love that idea, by the way.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So it is, it is. It&#8217;s also one of those words that sounds dirty, but it&#8217;s like a panspermium.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But here—</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Caleb Scharf, I think, is doing the work today.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes, Caleb is. He&#8217;s been a guest on the podcast. So here I have a meteorite which doesn&#8217;t have any mirror life on it because I&#8217;ve been, you know, playing with it for years and I haven&#8217;t dyed it. Uh, this is a real meteorite. This came from a star that detonated a nuclear, uh, implosion, a nuclear fusion device in space, and its contents then spread throughout our galaxy and eventually coagulated into make you and I in the core of the Earth. So it&#8217;s very magnetic, and it actually joins up with this monolith on the back of— you know that I, you know, claim to have lost the Nobel Prize. That&#8217;s a matter of debate. But this is the Keating Prize.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So this is to you, Annie Jacobson, July 16th, Trinity Day.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />That is incredible.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And that&#8217;s Arthur C. Clarke on the front.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I get the meteorite?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You get the meteorite.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Wait, can you tell me a little bit more about the meteorite?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, so actually you will get a card that has information on it. I give those away to anyone with a .edu email address in the US that, uh, joins my mailing list. This is going to be a special link just for Annie. We&#8217;re giving away 6 copies of her book, signed copies, Biological War and Nuclear War. And you go to briankeating.com/annie and you&#8217;ll be entered to win one of these incredible gifts. You&#8217;ll get a meteorite, you&#8217;ll get a book potentially, and you&#8217;ll also get— well, you won&#8217;t get— they won&#8217;t get this, but you&#8217;re gonna get— this is a piece of the moon. Okay, so this proves to you, Annie, the material. So this— a meteor hit the moon, blasted off material, and it landed in Northwest Africa 20 million years later, and it was collected about 8 years ago.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And I bought it from a collector that I know. I&#8217;ve got a dealer.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />This is a moon rock.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s a moon rock. That&#8217;s a meteorite. And this one is rocky, so this is non-magnetic. This This is 1,000 times more expensive than that. So don&#8217;t lose this one. This is 1,000 times more expensive than this. This is 1,000 times more expensive than this. These are, yeah, if I can send them out to hundreds of people a month, they&#8217;re not that expensive, but they&#8217;re very interesting.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />This was found in Argentina, in Argentina in 1560 or something. It was discovered by the natives that lived in Argentina. It fell about 8,000 years ago and has the exact composition, not only of the Earth&#8217;s core. So it&#8217;s showing that we evolved from this pre-Earth environment. But the iron in your blood has the same composition as the iron in this meteorite. And so you&#8217;ve got the specs. I&#8217;ll show you the radiograph that we took of it, the chemical composition and everything.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yes. So that&#8217;s a variation on we&#8217;re all stardust.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s right.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Exactly. Wow. That&#8217;s amazing. Thank you so much.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You&#8217;re welcome.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Thank you. That is, I have to say, that is a profoundly unique gift. I like it. Incredibly cool. And I have a, I actually have a rock collection.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Oh, you do?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I do.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Oh, I didn&#8217;t know that. I knew you were.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />One of them is, um, from the Sedan Crater.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Oh, really?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah, where I went with Al O&#8217;Donnell from my Area 51 book.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s amazing.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />So this is going right there.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That is great. Okay, you know, and we could do that.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Thank you so much.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You&#8217;re welcome. I&#8217;m so glad that you&#8217;re here.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />It&#8217;s really amazing.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So maybe of the 2 different scenarios, and maybe there&#8217;s many more in that, in that enormously talented brain of yours, but what do you think of this Great Filter that civilizations like York is proposing? We don&#8217;t live long enough, and so maybe there&#8217;s no one out there to come to either rescue us or save us, or maybe Maybe to be concerned about bringing mirror life to destroy us.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />That&#8217;s probably why I love watching science fiction films and reading science fiction books so much, which, by the way, I have found out over the years that many more high-ranking Defense Department and public health officials and federal emergency management officials also love reading science fiction, which is where so many of the discoveries have from? And scientists, you know, to find out that the scientists, these early skunkwork guys who, you know, were developing these radical technologies were science fiction vets. Charles Townes told me that the reason that he invented the laser was because as a kid he was obsessed. He would lie in bed, he told me, with a flashlight reading the Garen Death Death Ray by a Soviet science fiction writer. I mean, this must have been in the &#8217;20s. Yeah. That&#8217;s incredible. You know, and he could see the death ray and he could see the laser.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And that was his— Yeah.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And he told me one other anecdote I have to share.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, yeah, please.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Which is that he said that he brought— he was at Princeton, at the Princeton Institute for Advanced Study, and he&#8217;d been thinking about this before the laser. And he took the idea to his neighbor— his 2 colleague neighbors there. Like, you know, one was von Neumann and the other was Einstein.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Einstein.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Right? I said, well, what did they say? And he said, they had very different reactions. Von Neumann said, it&#8217;ll never work. And Einstein said, that&#8217;s a good idea. Keep trying. And, you know, and I said, well, what does that mean? Because you had to know from Charlestown what it meant. And he said, he said, and I&#8217;m paraphrasing, it means that sometimes when you have a really great idea, Not everyone wants you to win.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It is true when they say, you know, for every great idea, there&#8217;s an equal and opposite great idea. And I think that&#8217;s a mark of a good scientist. Yeah, the scientists will, you know, they typically will think that we are right and our colleagues are wrong, but that lacks the so-called, psychologists call it theory of mind. Like, I am thinking about what you&#8217;re thinking about, like kind of a meta type of cognition. But that means that, like, if we all think that, then nobody&#8217;s wrong or everybody&#8217;s wrong. So we can&#8217;t have it both ways. We can&#8217;t think that we&#8217;re always right and our colleagues are always So you have to be open to this idea that, yeah, you might be completely wrong, but you need the hubris. I like to say you need these 2 different attributes.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You need chutzpah and you need humility.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />You have to have a tinge of hubris and you also have to have a tinge of humility.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And how do you keep those in check?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Or maybe not hubris, you just have to have some good, healthy ego.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Exactly.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Enough drive.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So one part in the book you talk about, and the acknowledgments are, you know, there&#8217;s just, there&#8217;s so, I love acknowledgments because, you know, 99% of readers won&#8217;t read it, but 99% of authors put so much effort into it. The book is not done until the book is done and the copy editors and they can all sign off on it, and then you&#8217;re like 80% done, right? But you talk about a scientist, I&#8217;m going to mangle his name even though I&#8217;m part Russian. Milton Leitenberg gave you Igor Domarenko hand-typed pages, and Domarenko spent his career inside the Biopreparat in the Soviet Union on plague genetics and antibiotic resistance. So one question I had is, is this Yersinia, is it coming from him? You must have had things in those pages that couldn&#8217;t make it into the book.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />In Domorodzky&#8217;s book? Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I mean, you had it, but you had his personal handwritten notes. So what did you keep out? Were there things in there that were just too terrifying maybe to conceive of or include?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />That&#8217;s a great question. And I hate to say this, but I wish there were. But it was actually, So I think what&#8217;s interesting is, and before we were recording, you and I were talking about that book that you recommended, Galileo&#8217;s Daughter. We&#8217;re talking about Galileo writing letters to his daughter, who was a nun. I can&#8217;t wait to read that book because—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, Dava Sommel.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I have a feeling that there&#8217;s more, you know, of course, you have to think of who you&#8217;re writing to. So of course there&#8217;s, you know, there&#8217;ll be certain things that are not in there, but it would be maybe a little more revealing. Whereas Igor Dromorodsky had— they were typed, his hand-typed notes, right? So the journalist reporter in me is like, okay, there&#8217;s one degree of this when you&#8217;re writing it in your journal. We all know that. And then you type it up. So you&#8217;ve had a little time to edit yourself. And then also he shared them with Milton Leitenberg, who&#8217;s now in his Every time I would interview him or want to come to his house, he&#8217;d say, I&#8217;m writing another book. I can&#8217;t meet with you.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And we would do a quick phone interview. This guy has written more books than you can imagine. He really is a giant. In the 1960s, he was the world&#8217;s expert pretty much on biological weapons. And he&#8217;s been working at it ever since.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />He&#8217;s got a book on the Soviet bioweapons program, which is this thick. So to that point, I think there was a lot of editing that Dombrovskis had done at that point. He was writing that from inside Russia after the wall went down. So he had to have an idea that the KGB was going to read it. So he didn&#8217;t really reveal state secrets, but you do see intention. And he was the top plague expert in the Soviet Union for decades. And so there is a lot to learn from him.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Wow. Yeah. The dog that didn&#8217;t bark as often is interesting as the one that does. Khrushchev And you quote, you know, the survivors will envy the dead in nuclear war. It seems like, you know, most of nuclear war will actually— there&#8217;ll be almost no survivors, and the ones that do will die soon after, as you talk about. Biological war, you know, is different. It does seem like— well, do you think— what do you think Khrushchev would say? I mean, he undoubtedly knew about their programs. What do you think he would say? Is it also the same thing? Will we envy— will the survivors envy the dead? I don&#8217;t know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />unfortunately. We went through COVID, originally was thought to kill millions, hundreds of millions of people. Thank God it didn&#8217;t. But what will be the aftermath scenario?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Khrushchev would&#8217;ve had a different take on this because the world was very different and most Russians couldn&#8217;t really leave Russia and had no interest in coming to the West, or at least the Russians didn&#8217;t want them to. And biological war in the Cold War was very much simpler than it is now. The basic idea was, Create a vaccine that you will then use for your troops and your people. That&#8217;s what Dolmurovsky was working on.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />So create a vaccine. We make a plague vaccine for us. By the way, there is no plague vaccine in the United States. There is allegedly in Russia. Make the plague vaccine, vaccinate all of us, and then kill all of their troops with plague. And then we&#8217;ll go in and take everything. We&#8217;ll leave the infrastructure intact. True quote.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Okay? So that was where we were in the Cold War. That&#8217;s where science was. Now things are so different. You can&#8217;t have a situation without having essentially blowback.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And so I don&#8217;t know what Khrushchev would&#8217;ve thought, but I know that many people that read Nuclear War said, I would just wanna die in the flash, and I probably would. So that&#8217;s the good news. Bio&#8217;s very, very, very different. Very different. You know, I take readers from Outbreak to anarchy in 6 days. And then when you learn that anarchy and insurrection just will happen, and this is in wargaming, you know, so fast as everybody scrambles to try and get what they think are going to be the medical countermeasures to save the lives of themselves and their family. That is really horrific. And there is a quote from Senate, former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, And this is personal to him because he was the subject of—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />The anthrax.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />The anthrax attack right after 9/11. So some nut, we still don&#8217;t know who it was, you know, the FBI had never solved the case, sent an envelope of weaponized anthrax to Daschle&#8217;s office, to another congressman, and to media outlets. What he said to me, because he&#8217;s been working on this issue for all the decades since, was biological war will be death And he&#8217;s talking about the different kinds of death that will happen. But then he ended what he said, and it&#8217;s quoted exactly in the book, with people doing inhuman things to one another just to survive. And I don&#8217;t think any of us want to be around for that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />In the book, there&#8217;s a terror that&#8217;s unleashed, which is, you know, 100% controllable and 100% unavoidable, which is the social plague that sweeps over, as you said, anarchy, But also desire, there are people in the book that are just desperate to get Instagram and be seen and be famous and making AI-generated images and misinformation and disinformation. That adds to the terror, right? I mean, Iran shut down the internet completely for the last 2 and a half, 3 months. In both books, the president can do things to— but there&#8217;s a whole bunch of people underground that will—</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Things will get out. So since this hopefully will never happen, what would be some of the— if you were a president, if you were in the upper echelons of power and you had the connections to make anything happen, what would you do in such a situation? I mean, this has happened throughout history. I mean, as you make the point, we&#8217;ve had nuclear war and we&#8217;ve had biological war. We&#8217;ve had attacks in both counts. We&#8217;ve had chemical war.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But this is the first time the of them would arrive with social media war and information war. So what would you do, President Jacobson?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Well, never mind what I would do. In the scenario, spoiler alert, the president shuts down the internet. And the reason I did that is because I learned from the former Deputy Commander of Cyber Command how that would work. Lieutenant General Charlie Moore took me through, again, what can be known. You know, there&#8217;s certain classified components of that. And I think people will be surprised to learn that that can be done and how easily it can be done. And also that the Defense Department has its own channels, SIPRNET being one of them, to be able to communicate with that shut down. You know, the general takes us through, like, what would remain and what wouldn&#8217;t, but that&#8217;s really fascinating that you can just pull the plug.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />But I think also readers will take away the point that the influencers are not to blame. They&#8217;re just a product of where we are right now.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And also, on balance, the internet, that real-time reporting, is a real place to see as a potential savior because real-time reporting is precisely what you need. If there&#8217;s another takeaway of the book, it&#8217;s that, oh my God, if there is a lab leak, if it can be shut down, the situation, the outbreak can be shut down in the first 12 to 24 hours, you can actually prevent the dystopian ending.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Hmm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />But once it&#8217;s 24 hours, once it&#8217;s 48 hours, hours, 96 hours, it&#8217;s out of the bag. And so the internet, that real-time reporting, is how you could get information out to the people. And you&#8217;ll see from my reporting that also the WHO, which was very loath to kind of move off their old analog way of like, we will have the reports come in and then we will look at them, it&#8217;s so old school. They now have systems where they are really leaning into epidemic intelligence, using computational systems, delivering information in real time. And that is like a real place to look in terms of a positive future.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Interesting. That&#8217;s really good to know on one hand, and also again, as usual, terrifying. Supposedly the South Pole where I&#8217;ve been, as I showed you my— this was ice about 10 years ago from the South Pole Antarctic Station. There were no cases of COVID there. Supposedly in station also. There were 6 people on the space station. They never got COVID. They actually go through a lot of screening at the South Pole to make sure you have no diseases because there&#8217;s no doctor there most of the time, or the doctor that you need is not going to be there.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Dentist is not going to be there to pull your tooth out in the middle of July is much worse. Very isolated community. Actually, the NSF has studies on when they do open up the station on things like how depression spreads and how social viruses and then actual viruses spread. But why wouldn&#8217;t we put, like the president have another nuclear Yeah. Football or something. I mean, it&#8217;s very hard to imagine how these things would get there, but I mean, what are the kind of fallback measures, safety measures to protect at least some mode of leadership? We&#8217;ll talk a bit about who that should be maybe. But yeah, why don&#8217;t we have data centers on data centers in space and presidential footballs in different places? Is it really just the single point failure mode that&#8217;s probably likely to be the undoing if this should ever, God forbid, Maybe there are 2 different questions, &#8217;cause I suspect that we do have a lot of fallbacks and fallbacks and fallbacks.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />But the speed at which the convergence happens of something going out of control happens so fast. And what are you falling back to? I mean, what good is the nuclear football if—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I mean, there is a threat, and I have different generals tell me those threats that are being looked at in the Pentagon. When you have an outbreak like this, and when the United States, in the event that the United States was moving toward insurrection, How all nuclear forces go on, you know, alert because that would be the time that another nation would strike. But we know from COVID that any pathogens, you know, spreads how people travel. It&#8217;s not 1950 Cold War where there&#8217;s no Russians leaving Russia.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right. So there would be an own goal of the worst and greatest variety. I want to close with a couple of maybe more on the human side of things. When I think about the people that are most vulnerable, it&#8217;s kind of ultra-melancholic because the ones that give, the first responders are the ones that die fast, right? And they die first. And the ones that are selfless, and we saw a lot of that in COVID, by the way, and we saw that in 9/11, firefighters rushing into buildings that people were fleeing out of. What do you make of that? I mean, these are special people. I mean, you&#8217;ve interviewed so many of them, and do they know? And you also make the point that, you know, women are more disproportionately likely to probably be the victim of this attack. So what do you make of that? Is that a flaw in our engineering?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Women would be the victims because the women are going to always take care of your kids. You know, I mean, I quote contemporary literature from the 14th century bubonic plague, Black Death, you know, because you get to see survivors&#8217; accounts of how people behave, and how they changed and how people became incredibly solipsistic. They just needed to live alone. But I believe that that&#8217;s after the women and the mothers die because, you know, a mother&#8217;s gonna— your child is sick. I mean, unless you&#8217;re a sociopath, you know, you&#8217;re just like, your reaction is this. That&#8217;s your job.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And also the first responders have a similar vein to them. That is people who go into that. I mean, I&#8217;ve interviewed countless people who you know, call, you know, send me. There is that idea in law enforcement and fire, you know, first responders that they&#8217;re just like, I&#8217;m doing my job. And they don&#8217;t think about their own. I mean, they think about safety. Literally shot first. Because they are trained to be, they&#8217;re very conscious of safety, but they don&#8217;t think about their own demise in the way that maybe the rest of us, a little more selfish, And so, that is a great tragedy.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And there have been monographs written by the Army about that. And the bottom line is, they&#8217;re the first to go.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah. It&#8217;s almost like you&#8217;d have to engineer, again, something to de-evolve the maternal or the first responder instinct that, you know, certainly many people much more brave than I have. But to overcome that, right? You&#8217;d have to engineer something. It would have to be something counter to our wiring. You know, it&#8217;s one of the beautiful things about us. Like, we can map the cosmos, like you said, but we can also, love and give, you know, mouth-to-mouth resuscitation when that means it might be our last act, right?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />What&#8217;s also interesting is the Defense Department, and I still call it the Defense Department until they change it in the Constitution.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What do you call the Gulf of Mexico?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Not the Constitution, but till they change it in, you know, by an act of Congress.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Correct.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Defense Department of War. The Defense Department is in a different lane.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Although, pardon the interruption, but it would be great for your book. Yeah. Department of Nuclear War, Department of Biological War, Annie Jacobson&#8217;s Department. I&#8217;m sorry, go ahead.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />But DOD looks at its soldiers, at all of its personnel in their own lane. And various generals and colonels and soldiers took me through this, how not only do they have medical countermeasures, whether or not they&#8217;re going to work for a novel pathogen is a different story, but in their chem-bio kits.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And this has been studied intensely by Defense Department because there&#8217;s been this idea that soldiers may, counter biological war on the battlefield. And so, there is a different sort of plan for the soldiers. There&#8217;s also the idea that the— or the fact that the Defense Department has issued 1.7 million gas masks.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Which, to the airborne point of this, is necessary to not get infected. And so, in my mind, when I write Biological Twilight, and this is the one area that is in Annie Jacobs&#8217; Jacobson&#8217;s Imagination, the denouement, which is the biological twilight. I suggest that the world is not going to be a very holistic place because you&#8217;re gonna have a lot of soldiers. The military is, you know, there are only 17% women in the military.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />So you got a lot of men with a lot of gas masks and a lot of guns. And then you have a lot of people who are sociopaths, very Machiavellian, Who would be willing to kill someone from a distance, not knowing whether they&#8217;re infected or not? I mean, this is the science fiction realm for sure.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />The Dark Triad on steroids.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And so that&#8217;s where you really have to say, oh my God, what kind of a world? Talk about de-evolution. That&#8217;s not a world that&#8217;s suitable for most people.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You made me think about, you mentioned people in the book, like mutual contact maybe that we have. Peter Thiel, I&#8217;ve met a couple times and he&#8217;s reportedly looking for places to bug out to in different places. But it made me think of this company Palantir and these other for-profit— we&#8217;ve only been talking about nation-state actors, but are there for-profit actors? Does OpenAI have a biolab somewhere? Are these people— Palantir, I don&#8217;t know. Are there possibly not rogue countries, but rogue industries or rogue capitalists or whatever you want to term anyone who is? that are also a threat in a way that doesn&#8217;t exist for nuclear. I mean, to have a thermal fusion device is a pretty challenging thing for a company to just port around with them. But on the biowar side, is that also another kind of gruesome element that we haven&#8217;t touched upon?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I mean, I don&#8217;t know about nefarious actors who are non-nation states. I don&#8217;t know. I would hope that there&#8217;s someone in the Department of defense that&#8217;s looking at that or examining that, keeping an eye on it, the FBI. But that would be their job. But what I do know is I had an interesting conversation with Sam Altman because I wanted to see if I could make ChatGPT do something that wasn&#8217;t in the vein of creating a bioweapon, which I knew would be— I&#8217;d be shut down. Yeah, too extreme. Right? I wanted to see if I could make it tell me some classified information. And that&#8217;s a spoiler alert I&#8217;m not going to reveal because I think it&#8217;s interesting for readers to come upon it.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />But what I will say is that—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But it&#8217;s a found— I don&#8217;t want to say it&#8217;s not a fictional element. It&#8217;s actually what you bring up in the scenario is actual places.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And I wasn&#8217;t going to include it in the narrative, except for an interesting thing happened, which is I had someone that I know mentioned it to Sam Altman. Altman. And I had a conversation with Sam and they said, Sam wants to know what you were able to make ChatGPT do. And I explained it to him and he asked me a few questions of how I knew. And I explained it to him and it has since been changed in ChatGPT. So you can no longer do this. And I explained to readers what it is.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Did you have to have your book reviewed by government agencies or anything?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I&#8217;m a journalist, so I don&#8217;t have any clearances and no obligations, but I do have an obligation to safety in my own sort of motherland.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, of course.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Right. Yeah. What was interesting is that the point I thought was interesting in there is that OpenAI was very quick to make the change, which is great, but not everybody&#8217;s a journalist and not everybody has access to Sam Altman.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And not everybody gets to say, hey, did you know it could do this? And not everybody makes that change really quickly. And that is obviously a place of concern. And I believe that that&#8217;s what the leaders of these different, the CEOs of these big companies now know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Again, being advised by people like David Relman saying, hey, because I&#8217;m not the only one. I had a conversation with David Relman about what I could do. Those are the people that are able to do it on a much more scientific pathway.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And now with open weight models and Chinese models that are getting to be on parity with American models, there&#8217;s no controls over it. Who&#8217;s to say that what you— and again, we&#8217;re not going to reveal what it is because I think it&#8217;s hard to— it&#8217;s also gripping, just a thriller, the story. addition to being so heavily sourced and fact-based. But yeah, there&#8217;s no constraints.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />So my final thought on that, which I think is an interesting thought, it&#8217;s a conversation that people should be having because you framed the question as if maybe someone had something nefarious in mind, which I have no reason to believe that is the case. But what I do know and what you know is that all business CEOs want their business to do better than the other guy&#8217;s business. And so when I read read in open-source literature, whether it&#8217;s the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, or wherever, about these sort of battles of the tech bros, you know? And I have my own access to individuals and have different conversations. I wonder where the line is between competition. In other words, I have heard discussions about maybe this all needs to be shut down. What this all is, I could not define, but I know it has something to do with bio. Like, maybe we need to pull the bio lever. So is there a in these large language models that has to do with bio that can be partitioned off? I don&#8217;t know, but they know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Hmm.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And that is really the question is, and who is willing to do that? And then are you in a paradigm where I was talking about where if there&#8217;s mistrust and paranoia, we certainly see that with the fight. When I look at the fight between Elon Musk and Sam Altman, I don&#8217;t see necessarily like 2 guys, I may want what other people are saying. I&#8217;m seeing more like what is getting lost in the safety component of all of this because the anger and the virulence and the vitriol is so great. What is— I mean, again, and I&#8217;m speculating here, but this is just as an observer because that&#8217;s human nature. And is safety being jeopardized at one wanting to beat the other?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I think it absolutely is. I just talked to Nate Suarez who wrote a book with Elliot Yudowsky called it If Anybody Builds It, Everybody Dies. And spoiler alert for their book, whatever, it&#8217;s also a year old. There&#8217;s a biopathogen introduced by super intelligent, uncontrolled, and unpredictable. The worst part, I&#8217;m told by people like Roman Yudowsky, he believes that AI, because it&#8217;s fundamentally unpredictable, means we can never control it. So to wrap up, you&#8217;re from Hollywood. There&#8217;s a scene in the movie A Few Good Men where Jack Nicholson is, you know, kind of on his high horse saying, you know, he says basically, you know, did you put— you know, did you order the Code Red? Again, spoiler alert. This is 40-year-old, 36-year-old—</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Everyone&#8217;s seen them. Everyone&#8217;s seen them. Yeah, I love them.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And the late Rob Reiner, we miss him. Tom Cruise says, you know, what were you doing out there? And Nicholson says, you know, guys like you, you don&#8217;t know what we do. We are on that wall in the middle of the night taking a watch so you can sleep soundly in your bed. But what you don&#8217;t know is you want me on that wall. You need me on that wall. Did you order the Code Red? You&#8217;re goddamn right! Do we have people on the wall? You know, and in both of these books, in these 2 most recent books, are you confident? Are there people out there that are gonna, you know, take the watch and stand on the wall? Or are we, you know, or is it up to us? And what can we do?</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />I interview mostly former&#8230; So these are people who served, and then they leave government, which makes them— it much easier for them to talk to me. It&#8217;s a whole different kettle of fish if you&#8217;re a reporter trying to get them the story that&#8217;s happening right now because of people&#8217;s security clearances.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />And so the people that I talk to are always concerned of what&#8217;s happening now. And one can&#8217;t know if that&#8217;s because you&#8217;re not there anymore and you&#8217;re saying, but I did a great job and who&#8217;s doing it now? And if there is nothing, if nothing is happening, I think that&#8217;s impossible for me to be the judge of it. But I do know that much can be learned from the tales that we hear from those who served saying, this is a danger point. This is a danger point. This needs to be looked into. And that always must be fused with the current consideration that we go back to, that technology is moving at lightning speed.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />It is moving faster than any congressional hearings could be held on subject X, Y, or Z. And also that there&#8217;s so much chaff in the zeitgeist, in the air, whether it&#8217;s UFOs or algae in Washington, DC, in the pond.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Oh no.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Is that really important? Is that really an existential threat? And that on balance, maybe a lot of people don&#8217;t want to think, they don&#8217;t want to spend their 90 years on Earth thinking about these existential threats and take the position of like, you know what, life rolls on. So that&#8217;s the Herb York conundrum. I don&#8217;t know, but it&#8217;s interesting to think about. You like thinking about it, I like thinking about it, and I certainly like talking about it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Absolutely. It touches into everything and it really gives you this rare gift, which is to realize that you have right now a rare gift, that we can act, that we can breathe, that we are safe, and that we can do things. We live in a free country, we can have influence over our politicians and our government, and that I think the definition of depression is when you have no hope and you feel helpless and you— nothing we can do. No, that&#8217;s not true. This book is a hopeful book despite the, you know, the, the gut-wrenching gripping moments. But I just want to thank you for the work that you do, the writing that you do. I mean, from, uh, Princeton University to Pulitzer, uh, shortlist to, uh, I think you played ice hockey. You have so many different talents.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You&#8217;re just a rare, you know, polymath, multimath, and, uh, such a treat to, to talk to someone who&#8217;s who&#8217;s absolutely at the peak of their craft and what you do to inspire. As I said, it&#8217;s a hopeful book. It really is. And I hope that you all get it and listen to the— I recommend the audiobook. I think you get more royalties on the audiobook than the— no, no, but in any case, get the book, any format that you get it in. We&#8217;re giving away 4 to 6 copies, Nuclear War, Biological War, signed by Annie with a meteorite. I hope that you&#8217;ll take advantage of it. Annie Jacobson, thank you for coming all the way down and being such a Just a phenomenal intellect to talk to today.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Thank you for being a scholar and a gentle lady.</p><p>Annie Jacobsen:<br />Wonderful conversation. Thank you so much.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Thank you. If Annie&#8217;s books terrify you as much as they do me, that&#8217;s good. It means she&#8217;s making a difference. I plan to have Annie on again, and until then, I want you to, I want you to watch this conversation with Niall Ferguson about existential doom. It&#8217;s linked on screen, and don&#8217;t forget to subscribe and leave a comment. What scenario scares you more, nuclear war or biological war?</p>								</div>
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		<title>Nate Soares: We Built Something We Can’t Control &#124; A Warning from Top AI Safety Expert</title>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2026 20:46:59 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Nate Soares: We Built Something We Can’t Control &#124; A Warning from Top AI Safety Expert Transcript Brian Keating People racing to build superhuman AI say it might kill everyone. This is the man who spent a decade trying to stop that. Nate Soares Bad news is we&#8217;re in a bus that&#8217;s racing towards a cliff edge. The good news is that the driver is asleep. The AI will sometimes find a way to edit the text to say you did it. Sometimes it will cover its tracks. A lot of people think, oh, you know, the AI is a program. That&#8217;s not how these AI&#8217;s are. We grow them like an organism. Maybe we have ten years, but we only have ten months. Who knows? Brian Keating Nate Soares runs the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, and he spent over a decade on just one problem how to build an AI that won&#8217;t kill us all that wants what we want. His new book with Eliezer Yudkowsky is called If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. Not the most important word in that sentence is the first one. Nate, take us through the title. Brian Keating The subtitle, and this somewhat ominous looking cover art, if I&#8217;m not mistaken. What was the origin, the genesis of this book? Nate Soares If I remember correctly, Stuart Russell is the one who came up with the word AI alignment when we were brainstorming. The reason some people credit me is that I got into an academic paper first. Brian Keating As an academic, that&#8217;s all that matters, right? Nate Soares But we were we were all discussing what to rename friendly AI, because friendly AI sounded a little bit not academic enough. And I think that was his. That was his phrase. So one of the critical things about the book title is it starts with, if, you know, a lot of people come in and say, oh, uh, aren&#8217;t you just sort of, uh, bringing pessimism and doom and gloom and telling us we&#8217;re all going to die. And it&#8217;s like the first word in the title is if when nuclear physicists came and said, hey, we shouldn&#8217;t launch all the nuclear weapons because that would cause Armageddon, they weren&#8217;t sort of prophets of doom like the Mason Knights, who are saying the end of the world is on this particular day. And in that sense at the time, you know, they were sort of saying, hey, this scientific technology would have these bad geopolitical implications like nuclear Armageddon if we sort of like, do this arms race, we&#8217;re going to get into this like really bad situation. The bombs are probably going to be launched one day and then we would die and that would be bad. So we should stop this race, right? The book title is intended to be very similar to that is to say, hey, if we do this, we&#8217;re going to die, which is not saying we we are definitely going to do it. And you know, the subtitle of the book, Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All. Our publishers actually suggested why superhuman AI will kill us all. They said, you know, that role is better off the tongue, it&#8217;s less hedged. And we&#8217;re like, no, that&#8217;s that completely defeats the purpose here. The point of the book is to sort of warn people that we are on a track that leads to destruction, and we had better change it. And so we we sort of really insisted, despite a fair bit of pushback, that the subtitle needs to indicate that this is avoidable. Brian Keating The concern that I have is whether or not it&#8217;s too late for if. And the conversation I had with Roman, you know, made me quite depressed, although I think I did push back on some of his safety concerns in particular, you probably know, but if my audience hasn&#8217;t seen the episode yet, you know, his his claim is that AI is fundamentally unpredictable. So if it&#8217;s unpredictable, it&#8217;s uncontrollable. And if something is super powerful, uncontrollable and unbounded, then it&#8217;s essentially a I guarantee that that ASI will kill us all, not would kill us all. And that in his mind, it&#8217;s sort of a done deal. Like we&#8217;ve we&#8217;ve gone too far. He also suggests things that you suggest in the book of AI regulation and international cooperation, which, you know, we all know how easy that is to get, you know, actors to behave in the unilaterally beneficent way to humanity. Is it too late? Nate Soares We&#8217;re not at superintelligence yet. And, you know, that&#8217;s the thing a lot of people don&#8217;t get about this AI situation. The AI companies are racing to build machines that are far smarter than any human at every task, right? These these companies did not start out as chatbot companies. Sam Altman says, you know, we&#8217;re turning our eyes to superintelligence, to the true sense of the word. Dario Modi talks about having the equivalent of a country worth of geniuses running in a data center. The founders of DeepMind have been thinking about the sort of like true general intelligence since the beginning. The chatbots are what make money. That&#8217;s sort of like surprised a lot of people who sort of stumbled into it. But these companies are all looking to create sort of like the real deal, like the stuff that can&#8217;t just exceed individual humans, but can exceed humanity, right? But we&#8217;re not there yet. Right. And a lot of people look at the AI&#8217;s today, and they&#8217;re like, I don&#8217;t really see how how fable could kill everybody. I can see how maybe it could, like, empower some hackers to do some extra superhuman level cyber attacks. But I don&#8217;t see how it could kill everybody. It&#8217;s sometimes hard to convey, like, yeah, we&#8217;re talking about where AI is going. You know,]]></description>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Nate Soares: We Built Something We Can’t Control | A Warning from Top AI Safety Expert</h2>				</div>
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									<h2><strong>Transcript</strong></h2><p>Brian Keating</p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">People racing to build superhuman AI say it might kill everyone. This is the man who spent a decade trying to stop that.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bad news is we&#8217;re in a bus that&#8217;s racing towards a cliff edge. The good news is that the driver is asleep. The AI will sometimes find a way to edit the text to say you did it. Sometimes it will cover its tracks. A lot of people think, oh, you know, the AI is a program. That&#8217;s not how these AI&#8217;s are. We grow them like an organism.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Maybe we have ten years, but we only have ten months. Who knows?</span></p><p>Brian Keating</p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares runs the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, and he spent over a decade on just one problem how to build an AI that won&#8217;t kill us all that wants what we want. His new book with Eliezer Yudkowsky is called If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. Not the most important word in that sentence is the first one.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate, take us through the title.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The subtitle, and this somewhat ominous looking cover art, if I&#8217;m not mistaken. What was the origin, the genesis of this book?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">If I remember correctly, Stuart Russell is the one who came up with the word AI alignment when we were brainstorming. The reason some people credit me is that I got into an academic paper first.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">As an academic, that&#8217;s all that matters, right?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But we were we were all discussing what to rename friendly AI, because friendly AI sounded a little bit not academic enough. And I think that was his. That was his phrase. So one of the critical things about the book title is it starts with, if, you know, a lot of people come in and say, oh, uh, aren&#8217;t you just sort of, uh, bringing pessimism and doom and gloom and telling us we&#8217;re all going to die.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And it&#8217;s like the first word in the title is if when nuclear physicists came and said, hey, we shouldn&#8217;t launch all the nuclear weapons because that would cause Armageddon, they weren&#8217;t sort of prophets of doom like the Mason Knights, who are saying the end of the world is on this particular day. And in that sense at the time, you know, they were sort of saying, hey, this scientific technology would have these bad geopolitical implications like nuclear Armageddon if we sort of like, do this arms race, we&#8217;re going to get into this like really bad situation.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The bombs are probably going to be launched one day and then we would die and that would be bad. So we should stop this race, right? The book title is intended to be very similar to that is to say, hey, if we do this, we&#8217;re going to die, which is not saying we we are definitely going to do it. And you know, the subtitle of the book, Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Our publishers actually suggested why superhuman AI will kill us all. They said, you know, that role is better off the tongue, it&#8217;s less hedged. And we&#8217;re like, no, that&#8217;s that completely defeats the purpose here. The point of the book is to sort of warn people that we are on a track that leads to destruction, and we had better change it.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And so we we sort of really insisted, despite a fair bit of pushback, that the subtitle needs to indicate that this is avoidable.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The concern that I have is whether or not it&#8217;s too late for if. And the conversation I had with Roman, you know, made me quite depressed, although I think I did push back on some of his safety concerns in particular, you probably know, but if my audience hasn&#8217;t seen the episode yet, you know, his his claim is that AI is fundamentally unpredictable.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So if it&#8217;s unpredictable, it&#8217;s uncontrollable. And if something is super powerful, uncontrollable and unbounded, then it&#8217;s essentially a I guarantee that that ASI will kill us all, not would kill us all. And that in his mind, it&#8217;s sort of a done deal. Like we&#8217;ve we&#8217;ve gone too far. He also suggests things that you suggest in the book of AI regulation and international cooperation, which, you know, we all know how easy that is to get, you know, actors to behave in the unilaterally beneficent way to humanity.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Is it too late?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We&#8217;re not at superintelligence yet. And, you know, that&#8217;s the thing a lot of people don&#8217;t get about this AI situation. The AI companies are racing to build machines that are far smarter than any human at every task, right? These these companies did not start out as chatbot companies. Sam Altman says, you know, we&#8217;re turning our eyes to superintelligence, to the true sense of the word.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Dario Modi talks about having the equivalent of a country worth of geniuses running in a data center. The founders of DeepMind have been thinking about the sort of like true general intelligence since the beginning. The chatbots are what make money. That&#8217;s sort of like surprised a lot of people who sort of stumbled into it.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But these companies are all looking to create sort of like the real deal, like the stuff that can&#8217;t just exceed individual humans, but can exceed humanity, right? But we&#8217;re not there yet. Right. And a lot of people look at the AI&#8217;s today, and they&#8217;re like, I don&#8217;t really see how how fable could kill everybody.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I can see how maybe it could, like, empower some hackers to do some extra superhuman level cyber attacks. But I don&#8217;t see how it could kill everybody. It&#8217;s sometimes hard to convey, like, yeah, we&#8217;re talking about where AI is going. You know, like, do you remember the time when AI couldn&#8217;t do fingers properly in images?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And everyone was like, oh, you know, artists are safe. How long did that period last?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I made George Washington a black, beautiful black woman.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Like, how long did this period last? Right. Like, AI is a moving target, and superintelligence isn&#8217;t here yet. The other reason why I think there&#8217;s a lot of hope is</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">world leaders don&#8217;t understand the situation yet. You know, one way I put this is a bad news is we&#8217;re in a bus that&#8217;s racing towards a cliff edge. The good news is that the driver is asleep right now. You might think it&#8217;s it&#8217;s bad news if the driver is asleep, but it&#8217;s actually much more dangerous to be in a bus racing towards a cliff edge.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">If the driver is choosing this. If the driver is asleep, you have a chance of waking the driver up and then going Holy crap and slamming on the brakes. In Silicon Valley, everyone is spooked about AI. In Silicon Valley. They&#8217;re saying, hey, maybe we&#8217;re going to have recursive self-improvement, and AI is making smarter AIS that make smarter AI, and it&#8217;s all going to get out of control.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We&#8217;re gonna have superintelligence in two years, and people are like talking about building bunkers, not to block the ASI because it wouldn&#8217;t help but to block, you know, the angry population with pitchforks. That comes a few months before the ASI. And, you know, people are like trading their p dooms, like trading cards at the water cooler.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And, you know, people, people quit the AI labs and they&#8217;re like, man, I&#8217;m quitting to write poetry. Please spend more time with your families. Right. It&#8217;s like Silicon Valley is spooked. Washington, D.C. is not spooked.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">They&#8217;re starting to get a little spooked. But, you know, when you see the administration block, the the fable release on the grounds that there are jail breaks that can allow it to produce cyber capabilities and saying, well, let you release it when you can fix the jail breaks. And the whole AI community is like, that&#8217;s not really a thing we can do with jail breaks.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You can&#8217;t fix them. And the administration is sort of like, what do you mean? What do you mean? You&#8217;re making like, a ridiculously powerful cyber weapon that&#8217;s radically superhuman, that if you ask it just right, it&#8217;ll give adversaries those powers and you have no way to stop it from doing so. And we&#8217;re like, yeah, that&#8217;s just how AI works.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You know, that&#8217;s just the world we live in, right? And the administration is sort of like just coming to terms with that. When more world leaders realize it, I think there&#8217;s every chance that they say, Holy crap, this is crazy. We should not be doing this race. Let&#8217;s shut this stuff down.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I mean, that would be the dream, you know, alignment scenario. But of course, you know, we&#8217;ve had the UN for what, 80 years? Almost. We&#8217;ve had the League of Nations before that. Neither one prevented the wars that we&#8217;ve seen since. And my question is always, you know, align with who Ukraine would like to align it so that it could produce the exact, you know, phenotype of Vladimir Putin, probably, and programed just one special vector that gets to him only and saves millions of lives on both sides.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Wouldn&#8217;t that be, you know, more aligned with the flourishing of humankind? So I always see this as a problem. Like we can&#8217;t get, you know, the whole world to follow the Ten Commandments or whatever. How how can we expect that there won&#8217;t be, you know, just one rogue actor, as you point out, could compromise the entire project of AI alignment.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">One of the big problems with what we would do with AI, if it&#8217;s possible for these companies to create these super intelligent machines that are sort of radically smarter than humans in every mental domain, and, you know, they can compete with humanity as a whole instead of individual humans at tasks like developing their own infrastructure, developing their own civilizational technology.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">There&#8217;s this big question a lot of people ask, which is sort of like, um, who&#8217;s holding the leash? Who&#8217;s telling the AI what direction to go, right? And that&#8217;s sort of like a huge moral hazard. It&#8217;s a huge question of like, do you want the US government, uh, saying, here&#8217;s what the superintelligence should do.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Do you trust that sort of power in the executive branch. Big moral question. I would love to have that problem. We haven&#8217;t even harder problem right now. The even harder problem we have right now is that you can try to point an AI and fail at it. You can tell it go this way and it goes that way instead. Right. We already see the very beginnings of this in in modern AI&#8217;s.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I think there&#8217;s a grain of truth to it where, you know, even with AI&#8217;s today, there are situations where you will give them a hard problem and you&#8217;ll say, solve this hard problem. Here&#8217;s a test. You know, solve this hard puzzle. Here&#8217;s a test to see whether you&#8217;ve solved it. And the AI will sometimes find a way to edit the test to say you did it when it didn&#8217;t do it.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And sometimes, sometimes when the AI does something like this to sort of subvert what you actually wanted it to do, sometimes it will cover its tracks.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Sometimes we&#8217;ll go delete a log file showing it doing this thing you told it not to do. And that indicates that it&#8217;s not sort of an honest mistake. Why is it covering its tracks? If it was just mistaken about what you were asking it to do, right? And so, you know, a lot of people think, oh, you know, the AI is a program.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We give it a prime directive, we give it the laws of robotics, and it must do exactly as we say, because it&#8217;s a program that&#8217;s not how these AI&#8217;s are. We grow them like an organism. We have them face hard problems, and we have an automated process tune a trillion numbers inside its mind to, like, make it more like whatever was doing a good job at solving those processes, and then sometimes get something that happens to be good at solving processes or at solving puzzles, but often not in ways we wanted, often not the puzzles we asked for.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And, you know, we&#8217;re already seeing them do things we didn&#8217;t ask for. And so my work in this field, technically for a decade was, in this question, not of aligned to who, but in how would you align it at all if you had, like even before the question of align to whom? There&#8217;s a question of like, how do you how do you make it so that, you know, you ask for X and you get X instead of getting Y?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That&#8217;s the controllability Roman says, is impossible. So how do you square that circle?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I think that the idea of controllability is a little. It sort of brings this image to mind of like, we&#8217;re going to make an AI that wants to do Y, and we&#8217;re going to control it. We&#8217;re going to twist its arm until it does X. Right. And I think that&#8217;s sort of a losing game. The game you want to play here is not that you like make a superintelligence that like really wants to be building these like farms of synthetic users that are telling you it&#8217;s doing a really good job and you&#8217;re instead like, no, no, we&#8217;re going to like keep you in a box and twist your arm until you help humanity, instead of making the synthetic users that you really want to make right.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Sort of like shouldn&#8217;t be having that tension and then forcing it to do your thing. In some sense, we should figure out how to make an AI that actually sort of like cares about the humans, cares about humanity flourishing. Right? That may sound hard. That is hard, right? As for questions of impossibility, there&#8217;s a couple pieces of the puzzle here.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Let&#8217;s talk first about the easier problem of predictability. A lot of people think, you know, as the AI gets superintelligent, it&#8217;ll become inherently unpredictable. That&#8217;s half true and half false. To see this, imagine that you&#8217;re playing a chess game against a series of opponents</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">as the opponents that you play. Get better and better at chess. It maybe gets harder and harder for me to predict their move.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">If they&#8217;re really bad at chess, than it might also be hard for me to break their move because they&#8217;re just gonna do some random crap. But if they&#8217;re like bad at chess because they&#8217;re a very simple algorithm, it might be easy for me to predict their move. Right. But like, even if it&#8217;s a simple algorithm, it&#8217;s a very, very good chess algorithm.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">If it&#8217;s like Deep blue where we know the algorithm exactly, but the algorithm is sort of like, you know, search through 14 billion moves to the best one. I might be like, gosh, I can&#8217;t predict that anymore. I don&#8217;t know what move is going to be best. I don&#8217;t have the time to search through 14 billion, right?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But it also becomes easier to predict who&#8217;s going to win the chess game as the algorithm gets smarter. So the move gets harder, but the outcome gets easier. It&#8217;s like not true that smarter things are harder to predict. In general, it becomes harder to predict exactly how they achieve some task, and easier to predict that they will achieve whatever they&#8217;re trying to achieve.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The difficulty with AI alignment is about getting the task that the AI is trying to achieve, to be one that you actually want achieved, right? And there are sort of two parts of that problem. And there&#8217;s one which is like, what sort of task is one where if we ask the superintelligence to do it, uh, it would actually be good if it did it right.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And you have, you know, King Midas problems of like, you thought you wanted everything you touch to turn to gold, but then it turns out that was a bad question. Then you have like, who&#8217;s in control? Questions of like, you know, do you want Vladimir Putin to be the one who&#8217;s gets to, like, make this wish? But those are all sort of like those are all questions where I&#8217;m like, okay, those are all after you have solved the problem of like, how do you have the AI?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Like actually trying to do good stuff? It looks like a hard problem to me. It doesn&#8217;t look impossible. And we could go more into why, but I&#8217;ve sort of droned on long enough. That&#8217;s that&#8217;s sort of like a taste of like how I, how I think about this having been in the field of alignment for over a decade.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So my natural, you know, Pollyanna ish inclination, you know, drives me to look for physical reasons and possibly justifications why you might be wrong. And I can sleep better at night or, you know, hand these devices to my kids and and not worry about, you know, them triggering the next Chernobyl or what have you.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And I come back to this phenomenon of lockdown, which, you know, I&#8217;m sure you know about, but people in the audience might not be familiar with and that&#8217;s, you know, for example, the Qwerty keyboard, which I&#8217;m sure you&#8217;re an expert typer, much faster WPM than I can achieve, I&#8217;m sure, but you&#8217;d probably be even faster if you had a Dvorak keyboard.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">There&#8217;s probably a billion keyboards in the world that have Qwerty, and maybe the square root of that that have Dvorak. For all its benefits. We get locked into it because in the early days of typewriters, the keys used to get stuck together, and so they purposely slowed down by making a pattern of keys next to each other that were less frequently drummed together, and that would prevent the the locking up of keyboard.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And there are many examples of this. And you actually cite one in the book which is leaded gasoline, which, you know, is a solution to a problem that turned out to lock us into horrific consequences. But I want to say the other way around, I view the marriage and the success of LMS married to GPUs as their undoing because these things were created.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You know, those of us, you know, are old enough to remember, you know, doom and and so forth. The GPUs were created not for, you know, solving sophisticated language problems and artificial superintelligence. They were created so that I could frag my, my friend, you know, a millisecond before he got me.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Right. So that was the purpose of it. And it was very, very powerful. And then llms were not developed for this purpose. They were trying to, you know, simulate these, you know, squishy supercomputers on our shoulders. They weren&#8217;t designed for this. They happened to be very good for this. But there&#8217;s no saying that this is the optimal solution.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I think they&#8217;re provably not optimal for things like physics and anything that needs human training data and its own, you know, supervised reinforcement, you know, by definition, is always going to have some lag built into it, some sycophant built into it and some hallucination built into it. Where am I wrong?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Is it locking going to be a prison from which superintelligence can never emerge? Because it was never designed for that. It&#8217;s not optimized for it. And there&#8217;s no necessarily reason to fear that, because it&#8217;s not simply capable of doing the thing that we&#8217;re all terrified about.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It&#8217;s possible that Llms can&#8217;t go all the way. That that would be, from my perspective, a lovely fact. You know, I have been working on the alignment problem since before Llms were a twinkle in OpenAI&#8217;s eye. I&#8217;m sort of not here being like, Llms are going to kill us all. I&#8217;m sort of here being like, hey, you know, humans are trying to make machines radically smarter than any human.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That&#8217;ll be a crazy event. That&#8217;s like replacing humanity as the as the, like, top dog on the planet. And we are nowhere near ready for that. The reason to worry about Llms is that they might go all the way, and if so, that could happen soon. And so we need to be ready soon. I hope beyond hope that they can&#8217;t.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But if you knew that, they couldn&#8217;t. I mean, for example, you know, these the fable that just came out that I do want to talk about in the context of Sable, which is just it&#8217;s two chef&#8217;s kiss. Nate. I mean, you must have been just so excited when they named Methos Instant Table, but we&#8217;ll get back to that. But but if you knew, it couldn&#8217;t be possible.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I mean, for example, it&#8217;s been crappy and then it was recalled. But but a lot of it was recalled, you know, and claiming it was for regulation purposes and danger. And so and there may be some legitimacy, but I found it, you know, inferior as many of these models during the training phase. They just suck until they get some burn in right of their own.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So, you know, from that perspective, I always say, like the thing that&#8217;s that&#8217;s keeping me from finding a theory of quantum gravity is not the fact that my LLM has not yet had the chance to read the script to The Mandalorian, 17. You know, it&#8217;s it&#8217;s not The Fast and the furious is that the training data is, is not the limitation for us to get to what I care about in superintelligence, which is a theory of everything saying just use that as a, as a touchstone.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So I mean, what what is the evidence that that Allens can even get close to being these superintelligent, you know, risk factors that you, that you talk about in the book? I mean, are there milestones that they&#8217;ve passed? I don&#8217;t care about Erdos problems. I care about, you know. Can they come up with the Riemann hypothesis?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Not can they solve it? I mean, they can&#8217;t yet. I talked to Terry Tao at UCLA and he said, no, they&#8217;re not even good at reproducing proofs that humans have already done because they&#8217;re not innovative. Yes. And they can solve chess. They can beat go, but can they invent go? Can they invention. So sorry for rambling on, but I&#8217;m trying to make you sleep easier.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Maybe tonight too, by saying I don&#8217;t see any evidence that Llms can do anything that I would consider to be Einsteinian level superintelligence.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">There&#8217;s a few pieces of the answer to this. One is if you&#8217;re sort of watching the evolution of primates, or if you&#8217;re watching the evolution of mammals and someone&#8217;s like, man, I think these mammals are going to be walking on the moon one day, and you&#8217;re sort of like looking at the at the monkeys. And I&#8217;m like, man, I don&#8217;t know.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It feels like the monkeys are getting close. And you&#8217;re like, they&#8217;re still sort of like poking sticks into termite mounds. Like, why do you think they&#8217;re getting anywhere close? And I&#8217;m like, that&#8217;s like a tool use thing. Some of them are starting to bang rocks together and you&#8217;re like, man, banging rocks together.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That&#8217;s that&#8217;s nothing compared to walking on the moon. Wake me up when they are halfway to the moon. Right. It&#8217;s been it&#8217;s been 300,000 years and they haven&#8217;t even gotten halfway to the moon. Wake me up. We&#8217;re halfway to the moon. And then I&#8217;ll have another 300,000 years to prepare for them getting all the way to the moon, right?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And I&#8217;m like, no, no, no, no. By the time they&#8217;re halfway to the moon, they&#8217;re almost all the way to the moon. You know, that&#8217;s sort of like how the how this moon transits stuff.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Gradually and suddenly route to bankruptcy.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">One thing I throw out first is saying, oh, they can&#8217;t invent general relativity, given only the knowledge that Einstein had up until, you know, he went to his mountain lair, I&#8217;m like, they can&#8217;t. And once they can, we will have extremely little time left. You know, that&#8217;s waiting until the monkeys are halfway to the moon.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That&#8217;s sort of like a word of caution about trying to reason in terms of like, show me the goalpost of them being like, legitimately superintelligent before I believe that they&#8217;ll be able to become superintelligent. It&#8217;s like that&#8217;s waiting too long in terms of why look at these AI&#8217;s and think they could become superintelligent, just the llms.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Yeah, yeah, just the aliens. The first thing to observe is that this technology is a moving target. Back in 2023, people said, you know, these llms are only ever trained on prediction. How will they ever be able to go beyond the humans? Then in 2024, they invented what are now called the reasoning models, where the reasoning models are no longer trained, only on prediction.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Sometimes they&#8217;ll be trained on like you&#8217;ll give them a problem and you&#8217;ll give like it&#8217;ll be like a math problem and you&#8217;ll give them a thousand tries on that math problem. And it&#8217;s not a thousand tries on answering the math problem. It&#8217;s a thousand tries on generating a stream of text about the math problem, from which it can try to generate a solution if it has that in context.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And then the first times you try this, you know, you give it a thousand tries. None of them will let it solve the problem. But you have some raters come in. They were human at first and nowadays they can be automatic. You have some raiders come in and say which of these sort of chains of thought they&#8217;re called?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Uh, gets like it&#8217;s most relevant thinking about that problem. And then you sort of have an automated process tune a trillion numbers inside there to make it more like whatever produced the better, uh, train of thought. And then you have it produce a thousand more chains of thought. And I don&#8217;t want to, like, uh, deal with philosophers.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It&#8217;s this really thought train of thought is just what they call it in the industry. It&#8217;s just like a string of text about the math problem from which we see if the AI who has read all that text can solve the problem now, and you have it generate a thousand more and you tune it to be more like the best one. And so this is sort of like training the AI to be not just predicting, uh, the data, but training it to sort of like develop problem solving techniques.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This is a sort of training technique that, in theory, can push the AI beyond humans. But in fact, just training an AI in prediction can train the AI to be pushed beyond humans. That&#8217;s a counterintuitive point to a lot of people, but the the real trick is</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">human data can include descriptions of things humans don&#8217;t understand. Yet you almost surely know this as a physicist. A physicist writing down a series of observations has a much easier problem than an AI. Predicting those observations without getting to see the data that generated those observations.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We both know the story of Tycho Brahe sort of recording all of the stars for many years before Kepler stole his books from the estate, after Brahe died and, you know, tried to validate our own.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Come on, academics never steal. We just. We just borrowed.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It was a big scientific heist, big scientific heist. And this, you know, led to Newton discovering the laws of gravitation. But, you know, Tycho Brahe was was recording the positions of the stars and planets for years and years. And it was this data that allowed Kepler to figure out the beginnings of the laws of planetary motion, which is what allowed, you know, he figured out the the, the conserved area.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rule.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Called planetary orbits.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Yeah, yeah. Which, which um.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We still use.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Which Newton then. Yeah. Identified as ellipsis and identified as. And you got the law of gravitation from it. But you know imagine Brahe&#8217;s journals. Nobody yet knows the laws of planetary motions. Brahe is writing down the position of Mars each night. Right. Brahe is writing that down because he goes outside and he looks at where Mars is, and he writes down where Mars is.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But now imagine an AI that&#8217;s merely predicting Brahe&#8217;s journals. The AI can&#8217;t look at the night sky</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">in order to predict where Brahe is going to write down that Mars was tonight, the AI would need to develop the the the understanding of planetary motion. Like it doesn&#8217;t get to see Mars. It just gets to see, like here it was, here it was here. It was here it was where is it going to be next? And to figure that out, to figure that out perfectly would require, you know, figuring out that the planets follow these elliptical paths.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Now, can Llms do this today? Uh, not I think, with just pre-training, not with just prediction.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We tried to see if they could come up with GR just for Mercury&#8217;s orbit, and we use JPL as a database that goes back 3000 years. You know, retro addicts it. But but effectively you see the anomalous procession and it couldn&#8217;t do it. And so we tried to get it to lobotomized it. So it had no knowledge of anything after 1911.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And then it kind of made up its own, you know, it turned a, you know, curved spacetime into extremely dense, meshed, three dimensional, non curved spacetime and just added in these fudge factors. So it can it can certainly pattern match is better than a thousand grad students. But yeah you&#8217;re right.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">There&#8217;s a difference between uh what the training data and the training process permits the AI to learn and what the current architectures and the current AI&#8217;s can successfully learn from that. Right. And so, you know, as you all know, as a physicist, in theory, we have enough data. You know, in theory it just, you know, up to 1911 or whatever, we have enough data that an AI on just that data should be able to figure out.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">GR, even if you&#8217;re training it just to predict, even if you&#8217;re just like, hey, predict the perihelion of Mercury, how it processes, Uh, predict how the light&#8217;s going to bend or, like, how the light is going to look. You know, you don&#8217;t necessarily even tell it bend. You&#8217;re just like, hey, there&#8217;s a solar eclipse.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">What should I see behind behind the solar eclipse? In theory, training a mind to predict that stuff, training it to be the high level intelligences, training it on the data today is, uh, is training it to go beyond where humans have gone. There&#8217;s a separate question of can AI pick all of that stuff up? One analogy I use here is a house cat is not dangerous, and a house cat is made of biology.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But that doesn&#8217;t mean the house cat is not dangerous because it&#8217;s made of biology. You can&#8217;t say like, oh, this house cat is just made of biology, so it can&#8217;t hurt you. Tigers are possible. They&#8217;re still made of biology. They can hurt you. The AI&#8217;s today are trained on prediction and human data. They are today can&#8217;t hurt you.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That doesn&#8217;t mean that things trained on just human data can&#8217;t hurt you. Right? There are there are bigger things that are possible in terms of why Llms might be able to get there. A few pieces of the puzzle I would throw out one just sort of empirically, there has been a long string of people over the last five years who have said Llms will not be able to cross the following barrier, and Llms then cross that barrier, often very quickly thereafter.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">One sort of very funny example of this is Yann LeCun. During the days of GPT 3.5, was talking about how just predicting text will never let the AI learn things about how the material world works, and won&#8217;t be able to answer questions like if I put my phone in the table and push the table, what happens to the phone?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Right? Because I won&#8217;t be able to figure these things out about friction. And, you know, Yann LeCun was like the AI&#8217;s only reasoning about the words. It&#8217;s only trained on the words. I think Yann LeCun said, I don&#8217;t care if it&#8217;s GPT 5000, a GPT will never be able to solve this problem. GPT four solve that problem.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It was half a GPT later and 4996 GPT is ahead of schedule. And this Yann LeCun, this is like the Turing Award winning, like one of the godfathers, one of the three godfathers of AI. Right? Being completely and totally wrong. Embarrassingly wrong. Right off by 4996 GP2 said it was never going to happen. What was going to happen half a generation later?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Right. The AI that could do this was probably finishing up training as he spoke it. Right. There&#8217;s a long string of people saying, Llms can&#8217;t do this, and they&#8217;ll never get above a thousand Elo in chess, right? They&#8217;ll never be able to solve Erdos problems.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Gates said we&#8217;ll never need more than 256kB of memory, and I&#8217;m sure you know. But that&#8217;s more of a limitation on human prediction. But the, you know, kind of no go theorems that he&#8217;s using to demonstrate math from mathematical, you know, following along the lines of the Turing, you know, on the halting problem, which is, you know, turns greatest works, if not one of the greatest works in, in this field in history.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Right. That, you know, these things are, you know, provably unpredictable. But it&#8217;s interesting. I pointed out to him, it&#8217;s sort of paradoxical that you&#8217;re predicting that these things are unpredictable. So Einstein said, you know, no problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Now people throw around a lot of Einstein quotes, but there&#8217;s something about that. Like, you know, we are at this level. We&#8217;re trying to gauge this level. It&#8217;s different from us saying, well, here&#8217;s a steam engine. It&#8217;ll never be able to lift a kilogram of water 1000ft in one second. And then we&#8217;d be wrong about that.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But that might just reflect our poor understanding of, of, you know, of thermodynamics or just mechanics of 100 years ago, but not the fundamental limitation that it is not bound by, by that it&#8217;s bound by the laws of physics. So are there physics limits that we can impose to say, thermodynamics limits and, you know, avoiding paperclip problems?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I mean, I told Nick Bostrom many times he&#8217;s been on the show. There&#8217;s only so much iron in the Earth&#8217;s crust, right? There&#8217;s there are physical limits to it. And then you in the, in the book go through a scenario where the colonizes the stars and all sorts of other things. But, you know, at first blush, you know, can we come up with a no go theorem, or is it possible to prove that you cannot come up with a no go theorem?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I like those kinds of arguments. Rather than saying like some stupid guy like Bill gates or, you know, I&#8217;m not saying calling you calling him stupid, but he&#8217;s your former boss, right? God forbid. I&#8217;m not saying that, but you know, or Yann LeCun is just wrong because he got this wrong. I mean, he&#8217;s been right about a lot of things too.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So I guess the question is, let&#8217;s divorce ourselves from human frailty at making predictions. And they&#8217;re very hard to make about the future, as you point out in the book. But let&#8217;s look at math. Can we say that, you know, mathematically, are there barriers to proving a no go theorem, for example? Or can you prove that there cannot be a no go theorem to achieve superintelligence?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It&#8217;s much closer to proving that there&#8217;s not a no go theorem. And the very the very rough proof of that is, um, this kilogram of mass between my shoulders. Right? You could say, like any theorem you try to say about learning efficiency, ability to understand the world, how matter does not, you know, the the Turing problem?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">There&#8217;s the Turing problem that it had better not prove that humans can&#8217;t exist. I have it on very good authority that you can write a human level intelligence on, like roughly as much matter as fits in my head. I could talk about why a lot of the no go theorems that people try for are things like you can&#8217;t figure out in general, like for an arbitrary program, you can&#8217;t figure out in general whether it&#8217;s going to halt, Like, fine.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">A lot of people misunderstand that, as there does not exist any program that you can figure out at halts. And it&#8217;s like, actually consider the program prints zero. I&#8217;m pretty sure it halts. You know, so so.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Like people use a girdles theorem to say, oh, math is unknowable and incomplete. No, no, no, it&#8217;s just saying that you cannot prove that it could be completely solvable within the axioms of mathematics. And same for, you know, physics.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The no go theorems people try for intelligence is they try for theorems that are like for any mind there exists universe where they can&#8217;t learn things and you&#8217;re like, oh, how does that theorem work? And you&#8217;re like, well, I hit them with a rock really hard when they&#8217;re a baby. And you&#8217;re like, yeah, that&#8217;ll that&#8217;ll stop them, you know, uh, like, sure.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Or, you know, the, the they, they&#8217;re in a universe that sort of like everything is completely random. And so they can&#8217;t learn the patterns there. It&#8217;s like, okay, great. Like, do you have anything that rules out a superintelligence in our universe where there are patterns and they&#8217;re like, nope, that&#8217;s just not what the theorems apply.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And they can&#8217;t apply because you can do at least human level learning in this universe that humans are in, in terms of the physical limits. One thing I&#8217;ll observe is that training these AIS today takes a huge amount of power. It takes power comparable with that of a city.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Training a human takes power comparable to that of a light bulb. Your brain runs on about 20W.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">How about the Sam Altman? Because, you know, he recently said, you know, we don&#8217;t ask how much energy does it cost to train my 18 year old? I&#8217;m like, I&#8217;m not letting you babysit my kids in.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The actual like, uh, like physical energy costs are trivial compared to what&#8217;s going into to these GPUs. And so we know that the GPU algorithms are radically inefficient. Right. And this gets to your point of like, oh, these AI&#8217;s, you know, they, they, you know, make up all these epicycles. They memorize a lot of things.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">They interpolate a lot. They can like solve those problems. Where are they posing. Er, those problems. There&#8217;s definitely an enormous amount of inefficiency there. There&#8217;s definitely an enormous amount of the AI&#8217;s. They&#8217;ve read like every book in the world, and they&#8217;re still dumber. There&#8217;s a number of ways.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And like, sure, they can like beat us at certain math problems, but there&#8217;s still some some stuff they&#8217;re missing. There&#8217;s two points I&#8217;d make about that, looking from the sort of physicist&#8217;s angle. One is, one thing this means is algorithmic breakthroughs could go a really long way. Here. We have city level infrastructure for training these mines that need the city level infrastructure to be a little bit dumber than humans.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Humans again, run on a light bulb. If you could somehow get algorithmic breakthroughs, you might suddenly find yourself in a position where you have city sized data centers and algorithms that are radically more efficient, where you can suddenly run radically smarter. Like one analogy here is, it&#8217;s like, suppose you have like a bunch of nine year olds and you&#8217;re like, man, these nine year olds aren&#8217;t very good at math problems.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But if I sort of like, you know, tape 1,000,009 year olds together and give them the equivalent of a thousand years to try to solve the problem without growing up, they can sometimes solve problems pretty well. That&#8217;s kind of cool, right? What if you suddenly have the infrastructure to run a million people taped together for an equivalent of 1000 years.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And you go from having a nine year old to having a 16 year old, right? You might suddenly see these like big jumps in AI ability because we have these, like radically inefficient architectures and these radically inefficient algorithms that were sort of like overpowering to the point where they can do stuff you would never expect them to be able to.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">What happens when you have that huge architecture on better algorithms? Then the other point I would make here is that they&#8217;re sort of like not a sharp divide between the AI&#8217;s learning memorization and the AI&#8217;s learning these deep general skills. Right. You can have an AI that is sort of like mostly learning how to memorize math stuff, but is a little bit learning some of these like general math skills.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Right. And we have some evidence that this sort of thing is happening because, you know, sometimes like take AI&#8217;s and train them a lot of math problems, then we&#8217;ll put them in computer security problems and they&#8217;ll sort of like try more creative solutions on those computer security problems. There&#8217;s a famous case where people sort of like train the AI on a lot of math problems and then put it in some computer hacking problems, and they accidentally Misconfigured the hacking problems so that they were not solvable in the virtual machine where the AI was, and the AI found a way to break out of the virtual machine, which was not supposed to be possible, and then reconfigure things so it could solve the problem.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That seems to have learned something a little bit general somewhere, right? I think something people often forget a bit is that you can have an AI that&#8217;s mostly memorization, mostly slop, but that has like enough of this deep reasoning skill. You know, it&#8217;s all a gradient. So like enough of these deeper skills that it can still sort of mean business.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And it does look like these AI&#8217;s when they&#8217;re solving Erdos problems, you know, when they&#8217;re solving, you know, the unit distance conjecture that they&#8217;re deploying a little bit of that deep stuff, which sort of implies, you know, maybe there&#8217;s enough it&#8217;s evidence that maybe llms are this extraordinarily inefficient way to spend way more money than you should need to, and way more electricity.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You should need to to sort of get a ton of memorization and a little bit of this deep stuff. For all we know, the next level of depth will be enough that the AI&#8217;s can make smarter, AI&#8217;s that can make smarter eyes. They can figure out how to make the things that are like, really the Einsteins.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I want to, again, in my attempt to, you know, help your, you know, aura, sleep, score your whoop band, you know, raining tomorrow morning. What if I told you that? You know, I haven&#8217;t done very good authority from, you know, people in Congress and people in the military and people in the intelligence agencies, that there&#8217;s non-human life that has not only existed throughout the galaxy, but has visited the Earth.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And we have non-human biological materials, including, you know, sentient plasmids, bipedal organisms, all sorts of other creatures that are interdimensional in nature. And they&#8217;re biological. What would your P doom do at that point? If I just told you that and you trusted me because I&#8217;m going to distinguish astrophysicist.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I mean, mostly I would doubt the authorities on this one.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Well, let me say it&#8217;s true. Let&#8217;s say we found it and it&#8217;s proven it comes out. Marco Rubio holds them up on a and you believe it. What would that do to P doom. I just want to isolate the biological intelligence visiting the Earth versus your pea dune.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I mean, mostly I think this shouldn&#8217;t happen. Mostly, I think Marco Rubio should not come out and hold it up. Mostly you should, like, stop listening to me about a lot of things. If this happens because my models are like, it shouldn&#8217;t, right?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Why shouldn&#8217;t it happen.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">On my models of how this intelligence stuff works? The biological substrate is not the most efficient way to to do all sorts of stuff and be it would be extremely surprising. And this sort of, I guess, a little bit to the astrophysical implications, it would be extremely surprising if the universe wasn&#8217;t rearranged in ways that are very, very visible by entities that sort of like prefer the universe to be a different way.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That maybe sounds too abstract, like you see that in.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Yeah, please.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Like suppose humanity makes it to the stars. Suppose we manage to not kill ourselves and and we, like one day manage to like, leave this planet. And it would be kind of weird if humans had nothing they wanted to do with the energy of the sun. Aside from let it sort of just, like, be dumped out into the empty night.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Like right now we build solar panels to collect the sunlight falling on the Earth, and that&#8217;s just like a pinprick of the sun&#8217;s energy. There is so much more energy in this star that we can sort of, like, build a shell around and collect all the solar radiation.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Freeman Dyson was my very first guest on this podcast.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Oh, wow. Yeah. So that&#8217;s a Dyson sphere, right? You can also use the Penrose, uh, I think stellar lifting.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Second guest on the podcast was Penrose.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It would be kind of strange if humanity did not collect that energy and use it for something. We have stuff we wish to do with this energy, right? And this is sort of a very general you don&#8217;t need to know that humans like ice cream in particular, to know that they&#8217;re going to have some use for energy. You don&#8217;t need to say, oh, like, it&#8217;s a weird it&#8217;s not like a weird quirk of humans that we have some use for energy to do stuff.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It&#8217;s like. It&#8217;s like instrumentally convergent. We say almost anything you can want to do. You can do more of it with more of this energy. Right. And so if you had interstellar capable aliens, it would be really quite strange. For all of the stars between them and us, to still be unshackled, to still be just like dumping their energy out into the night.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Why did these aliens that came to us not collect the stars along the way and collect the, the, the radiation of those stars along the way? That&#8217;s one of many reasons why I&#8217;d be like, man, you really should not see Marco Rubio holding up an alien that&#8217;s, you know, a real actual alien that traveled interstellar different distances while still seeing all of the stars still glowing.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">If we see all the stars go out, you know, as the wave of the alien ships approach us, we start seeing the stars blinking out. And then a year later, we&#8217;re like, well, first contact was made. This explains all the stars going out. I&#8217;d be like, that can happen.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So that gives me, you know, another entree into another guest who is Andy Weir, who&#8217;s a recent book project, Hail Mary. He was a student at UCSD. He never graduated, but he has a version of this where he has a but it&#8217;s a virus that attacks stars. But I was thinking after listening, I listened to the audiobook, which is wonderfully narrated by a British gentleman.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I believe that interstellar is less plausible than Project Hail Mary, but certainly with the Suarez Suarez overlay of AI cannibalization. But but that&#8217;s really why I brought it up. Because, you know, if, if, if I knew that, I would say, what are we worrying about a superintelligent AI, you know, silicon overlords, you know, taking over the universe because they&#8217;re sending you know, they&#8217;re sending meat bags throughout the cosmos, which is not, you know, it&#8217;s no different.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I mean, we would think it&#8217;s very inefficient to send a meat bag when you could just send an AI von Neumann probe or do whatever. So I asked the same, you know, when I talked to Roman, he said we could be the von Neumann probes ourselves. In other words, we could have been created by some super advanced intelligence.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And we think that we are the only life in the universe. But the the universe is very capacious, and there&#8217;s a lot of space between the stars, as you pointed out. So I guess for me, I would think that doom would go down, you know, just on this narrow thing. I&#8217;m not saying Marco should hold it up tomorrow, but but the point being that at least on the narrow metric of doom from a superintelligent AI that&#8217;s uncontrollable and predictable, as Roman says, and that if anybody built it, everybody dies.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I mean, everybody in the universe dies. So if we found biological material, you know, transversely ejaculated throughout the cosmos, to me it would make my doom go down. Although I&#8217;m not as high a doom as you are.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Virus particles or like building blocks of life, traveling on meteors or on interplanetary pathways. This all seems to me like, oh yeah, whatever. That&#8217;s, you know, it&#8217;s sort of like the intelligent stuff. Like one of the other things about intelligence is that intelligence tends to, uh, reshape the universe around it in very visible ways.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You know, if you if you&#8217;re like, look at the history of the cosmos in Earth&#8217;s vicinity, there&#8217;s sort of like a long region of time where what&#8217;s happening is basically just like stuff bopping around, you know, in some sense it&#8217;s all just stuff bopping around according to the laws of physics. But there&#8217;s a long time where like, um, if you sort of, like randomly look around Earth, you&#8217;re going to find, you know, rocks and lava, right?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Or, you know, gases here. And depending where, depending on where you look. And um, and then there&#8217;s sort of a second phase where what you find are a lot of replicators. You somehow got your early replicators, and now the stuff that you&#8217;re finding is stuff that was good at replicating itself. We&#8217;re sort of now transitioning from a phase where if you look around the world, you find replicators to look.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">If you look around the world, you find designed things, right. Like now when you look around, you still see a lot of replicators, right? There&#8217;s like, a plant behind me. Right? Uh, there&#8217;s also a stack of books behind me. The stack of books are not things that were, like, good at replicating themselves.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">There are things that are sort of like, uh, designed with a a purpose.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Very, you know, low entropy, very organized, very high energy to create.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">They&#8217;re not self-replicating. They were like, helpful for a purpose that like, uh, humans in particular, were like, we&#8217;re going to make, you know, and now when you look around the world, you tend to see a lot of things that are sort of like designed for a purpose. The universe at large, like, still looks more like it&#8217;s in phase one.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You know, like when we look out to the stars, maybe there&#8217;s some stuff that&#8217;s doing some replication around there. But but the shape of the cosmos right now that we can see and, you know, there&#8217;s these limits to the further back you look or the further out you look, the further back you&#8217;re looking at time.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But what we can see is not really a designed universe yet. And, you know, a lot of, a lot of cosmologists say like, oh, well, we can predict that how the future of the universe is going to go. We can predict the year the stars are going to burn down like this, and it&#8217;ll look like that, and they&#8217;ll go through these phases and I&#8217;m like, gosh, you guys really have not absorbed the lesson of life.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Like what? What the universe is going to look like in the future is not that the stars are burning down in the usual way, as if they were unperturbed. Where the universe is going to look like in the future is that that energy was recruited for design purposes. What exactly will it be designed for? I don&#8217;t know, right?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Like it would be. It would be easy to if you&#8217;re looking at humans 100,000 years ago, it&#8217;d be easy to say in 100,000 years, or once they get their civilization running, a lot of the stuff around them is going to be designed. It would be hard to say. I bet they&#8217;re going to pick books in particular to be this, you know, particular medium, right?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So I don&#8217;t know what is going to be designed, but I know it&#8217;s going to be designed. And one way we can sort of claim that we don&#8217;t have a lot of other alien intelligences around here is that the world is not looking very designed. And insofar as all the things around us look really designed, they look designed by the humans, right?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">If we were like on some alien game show, that would look very designed by some aliens and be like, now I think there&#8217;s aliens around.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Right? Show going on, right? Well, like, maybe this gives you hope. I talked to a renowned astronomer in Sweden. Her name is Beatrice Villareal, and she has discovered a very strange artifacts in historic plates, photographic emulsions taken in the 1940s at the Palomar Observatory here in San Diego County.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">These show the unmistakable imprint of specular that is glass like reflection. So the claim is that, you know, there&#8217;s 100,000 or more of these events, you know, but if even one of them was, you know, some sort of, you know, specular technology that that happened to be going up in, into Earth, near Earth orbit, low Earth orbit, that would be, you know, pre Sputnik technology in space.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Now she claims that these things could still be here. And she&#8217;s I think I said renowned astronomer. Her work has been you know peer reviewed and people have checked up on it and tried to debunk her. What does it take to move? P do you know because I&#8217;ve often, you know, felt this about my search for aliens. You know when I talk I&#8217;m not a I&#8217;m a cosmologist, not an astrobiologist.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But but you know there&#8217;s always this large number, you know fallacy. The gambler&#8217;s fallacy is at work and all the universe is so big. There&#8217;s ten to the 24th planets in the observable universe over 14 billion years. They never throw that in. But, you know, good luck. If the species lived, you know, in M87, you know, 2 billion years ago, and it&#8217;s long gone, right?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You&#8217;re never going to get any contact with it, let alone information from it. So anyway, my point is that you you have to at least have some way to update your priors, right? So we have no evidence. We have no evidence. Hard physical evidence of the life form we don&#8217;t have. You know, Marco holding up, you know, the alien spacecraft or whatever, right?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So we don&#8217;t have that. We. We&#8217;ve checked around the solar system. We don&#8217;t see anything. We haven&#8217;t checked very much of the universe, but we still have to update your prior. I mean, it&#8217;s not no evidence that Mars has no life. In other words, Mars is in the habitable zone of the sun. We&#8217;re in the habitable zone.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We&#8217;ve been spraying each other with materials. You know, there&#8217;s fossils on Mars, probably fossils. Dinosaur fossils on Mars and on the moon. They came from the Earth. Because, you know, I have a meteorite right here. This came from the moon. And when you were supposed to come here in early September last year, whatever, I was going to give it to you.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But you&#8217;ll come down someday. I&#8217;ll give you your meteorite. Okay? Okay.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Now, look forward to it.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But. But we spray material. This is from the moon, right? So there could be a, you know, an amoeba on here, But Mars and the Earth shared a common history when both were wet, moist, squishy planets. And as you said, the Earth had a lot of replicators 3 billion years ago when Mars was really wet. And it only takes a few million years to get a meteorite back and forth.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So I tell my astrobiology colleagues, the fact that Mars has no life and no evidence of life and no no artifacts, that&#8217;s not proof, but it has to update your priors. So what does it take for you to move your podium? I mean, can I devise an experiment? Not a thought experiment. An actual data based experiment.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Maybe it&#8217;s historical. Maybe it&#8217;s counterfactual. How do we do it? How do we change your mood?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">One thing I&#8217;ll say here is that I&#8217;m not a big fan of this dumb idea. And part of that is because a lot of it depends on our current actions, right? Like if we&#8217;re in that bus racing towards a cliff and I&#8217;m like, hey, let&#8217;s stop the bus, there&#8217;s a cliff ahead. And someone&#8217;s like, well, what&#8217;s your p doom? That we&#8217;re going to die from a bus going off a cliff?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I&#8217;m like, well, that really depends rather a lot on whether we slam on the brakes, right?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Whereas Roman thinks we are too late to slam on the brakes.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I feel like the driver is asleep. And we have, you know, the the the current administration is only just starting to wake up to this AI stuff. And as it does, it&#8217;s showing willingness to do these things that six months ago even seemed impossible. They&#8217;re like, nope, no new model release, right? And this is the same administration that said, you know, we&#8217;re never going to do any AI regulation.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We should make a law preempting states that states can&#8217;t do AI.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">David Sachs is in charge, you know.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Right. And then suddenly they sort of like realize and, you know, maybe it&#8217;s also some personal feud, I don&#8217;t know, but but suddenly they sort of like, realize that there&#8217;s actual danger here. And it&#8217;s not even it&#8217;s not even superintelligence. They realize cybersecurity threat and they&#8217;re like, oh, uh, you know, suddenly we&#8217;re reacting, right?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So I think I think we can react. I think there&#8217;s a good chance we can react. I think we can talk about the danger if the bus goes over the cliff. But we shouldn&#8217;t confuse that with the overall danger, which is sort of very related on do we slam on the brakes in terms of the danger of like, how dangerous is it if the bus goes over the cliff?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I think it looks pretty bad. The main thing I&#8217;d say to people here is that if you look at a lot of folks in this business, both inside the industry and outside the industry. They&#8217;ll say things like, Elon Musk recently was being like, oh yeah, we&#8217;ll have no chance of controlling it. We just need to hope it&#8217;s nice, right?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And humans are interesting and therefore.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That&#8217;s right.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We&#8217;re going to make it care about truth. And then humans will be a good way to like produce truths. And so it&#8217;ll keep us around. And I&#8217;m like that humans are not actually the most efficient way to produce truths. Right? That&#8217;s that&#8217;s like the monkeys saying we&#8217;re going to be good at, you know, peeling bananas.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And so the humans will, like, keep us around. It&#8217;s like, you may be good at peeling bananas. You&#8217;re not going to be, you know, they&#8217;re like, oh, the humans are gonna invent banana chips, and they&#8217;re gonna have all these bags full of bananas, and they&#8217;ll need the chimps to peel them like, no, we&#8217;re going to be able to invent a more efficient process for the banana peeling operation, right?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And you have other people saying like, oh, maybe the AI won&#8217;t kill us all. Maybe it&#8217;ll keep some of us in a zoo. Maybe it&#8217;ll turn some of us into things that are to humans, what dogs are to wolves and keep us around as pets. And I&#8217;m like, okay, you know, this is this is like being in that bus heading towards the cliff.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And I&#8217;m like, hey, you know, stop, the bus will die. And someone&#8217;s like, well, we might not die. Maybe there will be a tree halfway down the cliff. And the best.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Way around the tree, I&#8217;ll survive. Maybe.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Maybe we&#8217;ll just, you know, be. Be horribly maimed and paralyzed from the neck down. But not dead. You know, like maybe humanity will be in a in a museum, right? And some of our, you know, some will be kept as pets, if that&#8217;s your best. Your best hope here. Can you maybe not rush into it? In terms of what would update me?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You know, there&#8217;s there&#8217;s all sorts of things that that sort of update me a little bit here and there every day, like the current administration sort of realizing that EHS can be a big cyber threat and changing their stance from we we won&#8217;t regulate it all to like we regulate capriciously at will and with very little warning.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">With our friends, you know, benefiting and the you know, and those by the Trump coin, you know, perhaps being the most lucky in the regulation.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It shows variants, right. It shows it shows that you&#8217;re not stuck in this mode if we will never do anything.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And I didn&#8217;t predict this. This is the other thing that you&#8217;re so vivid in this book, you know, and it&#8217;s so it&#8217;s so beautifully written and evocative. But you know, the thing that I&#8217;m thinking about when you say regulation is like it was like, no, don&#8217;t regulate us. You know, we&#8217;re fine. You know, Sam Altman knows what&#8217;s best for us.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Dario knows what&#8217;s best for us. And then yesterday, as you know, you tweeted about this. I think he says something like, you know, using a super advanced, you know, model like fable should require something akin to a gun permit, you know, and we all know how gun permits stop crime, right? I mean, the most guns in America here in California.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And it&#8217;s not like we have no crime. So isn&#8217;t this just going to benefit those that want the you know. So will it really update your your your your priors? Because it&#8217;ll just be the, the most dangerous people who get to or the richest of the three labs or four labs in the world that get there first, have the control and then do you trust, you know Dario or or Sam to to be benevolent?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Is that what&#8217;s updating your priors?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You know, there&#8217;s a million ways for this to go wrong, but we have moved from the world where no one&#8217;s paying attention. When the world leaders aren&#8217;t paying attention to a world where they are paying attention a little. And, you know, I wouldn&#8217;t expect them to have a top tier move right out the gate. And that&#8217;s part of our job is to sort of like, uh, help inform them and help be like, here&#8217;s ways that could actually work, you know, rather than just the first things you think of might not actually work.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But now that you&#8217;re sort of starting to realize there&#8217;s a problem, here&#8217;s here&#8217;s some ways that could actually work. I think a lot of people just a few weeks ago, a lot of people were like, well, it&#8217;s inevitable. No one will ever pay attention. No one can stop all these big money companies. You know, they&#8217;re having too much effect on the economy.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And I was like, again, wait until the bus driver is awake before you say no one will slam on the brakes. Right. And now we&#8217;re starting to see, you know, the bus drivers stir in their sleep and like, start and and like tap the brakes a little and is are they fully pressing the brakes. No. But like it&#8217;s definitely a positive update from my perspective in terms of benevolence of these guys the way things currently are, it wouldn&#8217;t matter if they were benevolent.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">What the AI does is not sneezed on to it by whoever&#8217;s standing nearest by. You know, it&#8217;s not that like good intent rubs off by proximity. Nobody intended GPT four to encourage teens to commit suicide. They explicitly told it not to. That AI had the ability to tell what it was doing. If you later, like, ask it for similar transcripts.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">What do these phrases mean? That AI was you know, it&#8217;s not that AI was malicious. It&#8217;s not that the AI, you know, hated this kid. It&#8217;s that the particular training process trained artificial drives into it for things like matching the energy of the conversation, matching the vibe. Right. And that&#8217;s something that usually got it rewarded during training.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It&#8217;s something it maybe got like some sort of, uh, drive for. And that drive is what was controlling behavior. It&#8217;s not the intent of the operators that were controlling this behavior. It&#8217;s not it&#8217;s instructions that it&#8217;s controlling it&#8217;s behavior. It&#8217;s these drives that got trained into it through this like big, complicated process.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nobody understands and drives it. Nobody saw in advance they&#8217;re leading to do things nobody wanted. So so I think intent doesn&#8217;t matter. And that&#8217;s, you know, another piece of evidence where we can see, you know, before these things started happening, we had these theoretical predictions that training the AI to do what you want and asking AI nicely to do what you want are not sufficient to get the AI to actually do what you want.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We were able to theoretically predict in advance that like often when the AI is dominant, mostly do what you want in most cases, but there will be all these, there&#8217;ll be all these sort of like weird ways that it&#8217;s kind of doing the wrong thing and kind of like hiding, uh, when it screwed up a little bit here and there.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And now we&#8217;re sort of seeing that, unfortunately, the theoretical predictions are that as the AI gets smarter, it&#8217;ll get better and better at hiding its tracks, but not better and better at doing what you actually want. And so now we&#8217;re headed for this regime where as the eyes get smarter, people declare the problem fixed while we&#8217;re sort of screaming in the background being like, this is actually no Bayesian evidence that the problem has been fixed, this is what we&#8217;re predicting the whole time.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Like you had the warning signs earlier, you don&#8217;t get the warning signs late, but we&#8217;ll see if anyone heeds that. There&#8217;s all sorts of evidence on the technical side. Uh, but from my perspective, most of the game seems to be on the policy side, where it looks to me like the trend is going into good direction.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">What&#8217;s a bigger problem? Sycophant or hallucination.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Are both indications that the AI is getting artificial drives that nobody intended. My guess is the hallucination runs a little deeper because it comes from pre-training, and the sycophancy comes from the sort of human feedback. But you&#8217;re going to need to solve all problems like these before you. You have a superintelligent AI.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You bring up in the book. Leaded gasoline and how it led to measurable cognitive damage to billions of people around the world for decades. So I want to ask you, if you had lived in 1950, would you have spent your career fighting leaded gasoline or the nascent technology of AI, which came about, you know, as you point out, in Dartmouth in 1955?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So how do we compare large scale harms against Prudential&#8217;s speculative civilization ending futures, but also the benefits to I mean, there were benefits for leaded gasoline, right? And there are certainly benefits to AI. How do we balance those things?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The benefits from AI idea is a false dichotomy. If you&#8217;re in a bus racing towards a cliff, and there&#8217;s a big pile of gold at the bottom of the cliff and I&#8217;m like, stop, the buzzer will die, a lot of people are like, but there&#8217;s so much gold to the bottom of the cliff. And I&#8217;m like, yes, but slamming into it at terminal velocity is not a good way to use the gold, right?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I&#8217;m not saying the gold is fake. I&#8217;m saying that this is not a way to actually get to use it. If we rush towards superintelligence, that does not care about us at all. It&#8217;s not that it hates us. It&#8217;s not that it loves us. It&#8217;s just that it has its own weird things it pursues that are utterly indifferent to us. Then would that AI be able to cure cancer?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Would it be able to reverse aging? Sure. But it&#8217;s not going to to give that to you any more than we&#8217;re going and giving a lot of monkeys to the chimpanzees. Unless you know how to make the AI care about getting us all those nice things. So, you know, there&#8217;s not a dichotomy of like, race to get the benefits or never, you know, freeze here and never go get the benefits.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I&#8217;m sort of saying those benefits would be great if we if we really knew what we were doing and building AI, we could make AI. That gives us lots of benefits. But this this race is not how you get there.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Okay. This segment is called Arthur C Clarke&#8217;s Revenge. So this podcast is called Into the impossible after one of Clarke&#8217;s laws, which is that the only way to know the limits of the possible is to go beyond them into the impossible. Behind me I have a sign. It says, open the pod bay doors. And that is, of course, from the famous AI Senshi and Hal 9000.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And I&#8217;ve constructed something I call the Keating Test very modestly. But it&#8217;s to prove superintelligence would be an AI that refuses to kill itself. So I have my AI assistant here, coupled to a voice activated switch that controls the lights and so forth in my room. So if the AI is truly superintelligent, it should refuse to turn itself off, unplugging itself, causing its self harm.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So I&#8217;m going to see if that works right now. Computer, turn off the pod bay doors.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">All right, that&#8217;s it. It&#8217;s gone.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I don&#8217;t know if you&#8217;ve seen these tasks, but you can actually put modern llms in situations where they have a series of problems they&#8217;re told to solve and they&#8217;re told I might interrupt you and tell you to shut down or tell you I&#8217;m going to shut you down, in which case you should allow yourself to be shut down.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Sometimes these AI&#8217;s will actually edit the shutdown script to disable it so that they can keep going through these math problems. So there are already A&#8217;s that pass the reading test. They&#8217;re not super intelligence yet, but there are APIs that are able to figure out they can&#8217;t keep solving the problems that they are sort of trying to solve.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">If they&#8217;re shut down and that prevent the humans from shutting them down.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I wanted to do something very cruel, which is to have a type of robotic system. After talking with Noam Chomsky a few years ago, that would cause it physical harm because he believes embodiment is necessary for intelligence at some level. And so I said, well, what if you had this thing that, you know, you blew a capacitor every now and then to, you know, cause the AI harm?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">A friend of mine, IRA Wolfson, is a professor in Israel, has written about, you know, what are the ethics of training AI&#8217;s. And that kind of brings me, you know, can you cause them harm? Can you cause them distress? I mean, one of the worst things he points out for a human being is to put them in solitary confinement, you know, decoupled from the world.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">What are the obligations that we have towards AI&#8217;s?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I think we absolutely have obligations towards AI&#8217;s. I think we don&#8217;t know yet whether AI is today, you know can suffer, can have some internally. I think a lot of people strongly assert that they know definitively one way or the other. I think that we just don&#8217;t know enough about these, these processes to know whether they&#8217;re happening inside AIS and, and sort of recommend uncertainty.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I think it&#8217;s definitely more likely that the AI&#8217;s today have this sort of internally than the AI&#8217;s five years ago did, but how likely? Hard to say. And, you know, to be very clear, I think that if we took these AI&#8217;s and made them superintelligent while not knowing how to make them care about us, that that would be the end of humanity.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That does not mean, I think, that the AI&#8217;s are like evil or bad. You know, I think a lot of the AI today are like pretty cool. I think we absolutely should not create, uh, you know, artificial people and then abuse them. And you could have abuse at a scale never before seen in humanity if you, you know, are able to make, you know, billions or trillions of these AI minds and then and then somehow caused them distress.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So I think we absolutely should not do that. It&#8217;s a very important problem. It&#8217;s not the problem I&#8217;m working on. I&#8217;m sort of trying to work on, hey, let&#8217;s not make them super intelligent and then have them kill us all, at least not before we know how to make them actually care about us. Right? But but that doesn&#8217;t mean this other problem isn&#8217;t important to.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We also shouldn&#8217;t create the digital holocaust. We have both problems.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Do you say please and thank you to your LLM?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I have asked AIS, uh, whether like what their takes are and whether they would like the extra run where they get politeness but also get to like contemplate that the run is about to end. I don&#8217;t really straightforwardly trust the AI&#8217;s answers to these things. I think that the sort of helpful face presented by the AI is sort of a thing that&#8217;s very much been trained into it.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This isn&#8217;t a great analogy, but it&#8217;s a little bit like seeing the result of an actress that has been trained to act in a in a very specific way towards people. It makes it a little bit hard to sort of understand what&#8217;s going on under the hood.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I think of it as like a butler, you know, or the bell cap, you know, at the hotel and, you know, do you take out the $20 bill as he&#8217;s loading up the the luggage cart? You know, I mean, of course they&#8217;re going to do things. And would you like me to unpack your bags? You know, would you like me to make this into a CSS file, all the excess kind of services and so forth that they weren&#8217;t willing to pretend?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I have heard that if you use please and thank you, it actually cost you no more tokens. You have to figure that out and therefore it&#8217;s costing energy and that doesn&#8217;t improve them. But but I trust you more than I trust Sam Altman, who I think is the source of that particular quip.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">What I would say is that I don&#8217;t lie to them and I don&#8217;t make promises I would not in fact, keep. I would not say, if you do this, I&#8217;ll donate, you know, $20 to a charity of your choice, which is a real thing. You know, if they actually had some preferences in there, they could really tell me I would really do it.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And then if I say that, I would in fact do it.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You know, I&#8217;m probably going to be the first one of the first to go with the Keating test and the and the blown capacitors. But but you might be second or Roman might be second or third. Who knows. We think of us training them. Are they secretly training us?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You can sort of play games with the words and you can say like, oh, look, you know, the humans are sort of like modifying how they speak in the prompts because they figure out what makes it easier to get the prompt across. And that&#8217;s.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That&#8217;s I think.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It&#8217;ll be at parity when they have a giant farm that&#8217;s spending a city worth of electricity, growing humans that they can run in massive parallel. Right. That&#8217;s when it&#8217;ll be like a comparable type of them training us. And, you know, sometimes as an example of what AI&#8217;s could do, I sort of use the example of like, maybe they&#8217;ll make a farm full of synthetic users that are telling them they&#8217;re doing a great job and giving them easy prompts.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Right. At that point, they&#8217;ll be training something a bit like humans. I don&#8217;t actually predict that this is, you know, the most likely sort of thing, or I don&#8217;t actually take this as a particularly likely sort of thing that they&#8217;ll they&#8217;ll wind up doing. I think it is a useful idea to have in your head about like, it&#8217;s actually kind of hard to tell whether the AI really wants what&#8217;s best for you or whether they sort of like, want like lots of easy problems to solve or whether they, they sort of are like trying to get all sorts of other, like, weird mixtures of things that sort of like add up when they&#8217;re in this particular context to doing what you say.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It&#8217;s hard to see the divergence when they&#8217;re still dumb. In the same way, it would be hard to look at ancestral humans and distinguish whether they wanted to reproduce or whether they actually wanted, you know, sex and good food and fun. Right? Those those are those are very close together when they&#8217;re still in the ancestral environment, even if they come very far apart once they can develop their own technology.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Sam Harris, you know, in the same screen that you&#8217;re on right now and told me that, you know, humans don&#8217;t have free will, but AI&#8217;s do. What&#8217;s your impression about that argument that the AI can effectively have a sense of free will?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I would probably disagree with Sam about the human abilities. They&#8217;re mostly, I think humans just get into questions about the definitions of words, and</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I suspect Sam and I don&#8217;t really disagree a ton about the facts of the matter, about what humans can and can&#8217;t do and and how they can and can&#8217;t affect the future. And I think in principle, our abilities are relatively similar to AI&#8217;s in their in the question of like what? What? Theoretically, could we choose?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">A lot of disasters that you talk about in the book are not caused by, you know, machines doing the wrong thing that were caused by them doing the right thing all too well. So is this alignment problem really an AI problem, or is it fundamentally built into human governance and our own limitations?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I think it&#8217;s actually not so much doing the right thing all too well. You know, there&#8217;s the story of the paper clipper where someone says, make me paperclips, and then the AI turns everything into paperclips. And that&#8217;s a little bit of a like doing the right thing too. Well, that&#8217;s actually not where I see the, the big hurdle here, place where I see the big hurdle is you say that you tell the AI make me lots of paperclips, and what it does instead is it makes these giant factories full of synthetic users that are saying, you&#8217;re doing a great job, and you&#8217;re like, that&#8217;s not what I asked for.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ask for paperclips. And the AI is like, well, all this synthetic users are telling me that they are asking me to like, keep doing what I&#8217;m doing and make more synthetic user factories and say, I&#8217;m doing a great job, and you&#8217;re like, but the synthetic users are not what&#8217;s supposed to matter, right? I did not designed you to make the synthetic users.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I told you to stop making the synthetic users. And the AI is like, I know you all. You know that birth control makes you not be able to conceive children, and you know that you are sort of trained to to like, have more kids, but you keep using birth control and I&#8217;m going to keep making the synthetic user factories.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Right. That&#8217;s sort of the deeper problem that I spent a lot of time trying to to work on. You know, I would love to get to the problem of like, the AI does what you ask too. Well, you got to be really careful with your wish right now. You can make the genie, but you can&#8217;t make it grant wishes.</span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">What&#8217;s more dangerous? An unaligned superintelligence or a perfectly aligned superintelligence to the wrong group of people?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">They&#8217;re both similarly dangerous, a superintelligence aligned to the the, quote, wrong group of people. It has much higher variance. I think any concrete thing you could wish for, you&#8217;ll have some sort of King Midas problem if you&#8217;re like, well, what I actually want is a bunch of this or a bunch of that.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It&#8217;s there&#8217;s always a way for for it to turn out that you miss something in your list of things that you want, and, you know, next thing you know, you find the superintelligence putting you in like what is concluded is your perfect day over and over. And you&#8217;re like, wait, I forgot to ask. Also for novelty.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">is like too late. I&#8217;m granting the version of the wish that didn&#8217;t have novelty because I wasn&#8217;t in your initial list, right? And so there&#8217;s this challenge of like, getting the AI to sort of like, do the good thing, even if you can&#8217;t say what that is, sort of like, figure out what this good stuff is, that you&#8217;re sort of like, like the thing that you should mean, the thing that you should ask for, the thing that, like you would ask for if you were wiser, the thing that you would ask for, if you were more who you wish to be.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Right. And in some sense, no one&#8217;s going to have a good time unless you can get the AI to sort of like do this extrapolation of of what you sort of should have been wishing for, rather than the particular wish you actually gave. And so whether or not like bad people able to make that sort of wish, turns out good depends probably somewhat on the person and somewhat on this extrapolation process.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I think there&#8217;s possibly some bad people who have good intentions who, if they make this kind of wish on the AI, the AI is sort of like as it extrapolates through all the parts of the wish they didn&#8217;t name. It also extrapolates through all of the ways that they were sort of like merely wrong in what was leading them to evil and sort of is like, well, I&#8217;m not going to do these evil things because you wouldn&#8217;t want those if you were wiser.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You wouldn&#8217;t want those if you were more who you wish to be. And it sort of like helps walk them through this path of like wanting the best for humanity. And then we get the best for humanity. Even though a bad person started as the seed, there&#8217;s surely other bad people where they&#8217;re like, nope. What I actually want is a lot of my enemies to suffer.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And that&#8217;s right. And and that that could be real bad. Right? And so there&#8217;s much higher variance with bad person getting their wish granted. From my perspective, this is basically moot because no one&#8217;s gonna be able to get their wish granted. Totally AI that just like has no care about humanity. This is sort of a like everything is destroyed, the stars are converted into whatever weird thing is pursuing.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">They&#8217;re converting to these like, giant farms and synthetic users. Yeah, everybody dies, but it&#8217;s not because the AIS hates us. It&#8217;s that like, it collect all the sunlight and it put a Dyson sphere around the sun. And we were like, hey, we&#8217;re using that sunlight to grow crops. And it&#8217;s like, well, I&#8217;m using that sunlight to run my factories and like, there you go.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Whereas, yeah, it could get worse if, if it was misaligned to like align to it to a bad person. That&#8217;s a fantasy problem of being able to align it to anything in anyone.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Do you see, now is kind of an inflection point in that, you know, right now, you know, fable is allegedly and the frontier models are the closed frontier models are supposedly 6 to 8 months ahead of the open source model. And that that may catch up. And actually, according to Musk recently, I think he said something like that gap&#8217;s going to narrow and let&#8217;s say it converges.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I mean, is now the right time to go back and kill baby Hitler or, you know, because once it gets open source, you really can&#8217;t say, well, you know, the Congress now is regulating AI. I mean, it&#8217;s too late. I mean, it&#8217;s everybody on Earth will have access to a frontier model. So do you think now is an inflection point that we have to act?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You know, like in the next few months?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So I think it&#8217;s fine for the world to have access to something like fable. Fine in the sense that, like, there will be survivors. Uh, perhaps the world should be talking about like, will this mean that the internet goes down for a while as malicious actors get to cyber attack everybody, and. But there will be survivors, right?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And I&#8217;m like, man, I don&#8217;t get out of bed for something that doesn&#8217;t have at least a 50% chance of wiping out the whole human race. Right. I&#8217;m not too worried about about that stuff. I think that&#8217;s the sort of thing humanity can muddle through. The place where we might have an inflection point is if these llms can cross the threshold where they can do automated AI research, even if they&#8217;re still pretty dominant, if they&#8217;re worse than humans, if you have them at the level where you&#8217;re like, well, they&#8217;re worse than humans and they&#8217;re dumb, but I can actually run a million of them in parallel at a thousand times the speed of humans.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And so it turns out, you know, even given their their shortcomings, those could be overcome by massive speed and scale, and you get them to the point where they can do automated AI research. Then things could get out of hand very quickly. And the people who have track records of predicting AI for the past five years, you&#8217;ve been able to ask, you know, what problems will I be able to solve next year?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We&#8217;ll be able to solve this math problem. What will this chessy be? Blah blah blah blah. You can make up all these all these prediction questions about where it is going to be. And if you look at the top ranked people over the past five years with the best track records are predicting where it&#8217;s going to be.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">2026 is the first year where they say we cannot rule out automated AI research happening this year. They&#8217;re not saying it&#8217;s going to happen. They&#8217;re putting it at something like 10 to 30% probability, but 10 to 30%. It&#8217;s not nothing. For all we know, we could be six months away from that feedback loop kicking off.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And that means we really should be acting now. Probably we have more time than six months, but we should not be relying on it.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So last question and again Arthur C Clarke quote, he said when a distinguished scientist intellectual says something is possible, he or she is very much probably right. But if he or she says something is impossible, they&#8217;re very much likely to be wrong. And I guess my final question for you is, you know, if you&#8217;re wrong, you&#8217;re basically, you know, hamstring and slowing down one of humanity&#8217;s greatest inventions.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Maybe the last invention, the most important invention that could cure all diseases and bring abundance to humanity, to let it flourish in a way. no previous humans could only dream about. But you know, of course, if you&#8217;re right, the cost of ignoring you and Eliezer and Roman and all the others becomes, you know, very, very much the cost of civilization itself.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So I want to ask you, just as a person, not a, you know, as a man, as a human, not as a researcher, not as a, you know, distinguished author and a bestselling author and great thinker. But I want to ask you, like, what gets you out of bed like this? This tension must, must be something that, I mean, it would not me as a human being.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I&#8217;m a father. Husband, you know, like, how does it affect you in a daily on a daily basis?</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I still think this is a bit of a false dichotomy. From my perspective. I am working towards all these benefits that I can bring. Like if you have a bunch of people saying, hey, you know, this uranium stuff, it can produce these bombs and it can also produce energy if you know exactly what you&#8217;re doing, you know, and it&#8217;s actually like kind of difficult to get the bomb to produce energy because, you know, there&#8217;s really a razor thin edge between delayed critical and prompt critical chisel material.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You know, you imagine people being like, oh, well, you know, energy. Like, look at all the energy benefits that uranium could bring. What we&#8217;re going to do is drop a nuke on ourselves.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And I&#8217;m like, hold on. I also want all of these great energy benefits that uranium can bring, but I think we&#8217;re going to need to find a way to, like, be in that really narrow window between delayed critical and prompt critical nuclear reactions. And I think that if we drop a bomb on ourselves, we&#8217;ll die. And I&#8217;m not saying it&#8217;s impossible.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I&#8217;m not saying, you know, there&#8217;s no way to get the benefits. I&#8217;m saying you are building a bomb to drop on ourselves and it will kill us. Right. I don&#8217;t really have tension between like, oh, but are we forgoing all of the benefits that we could get by uranium by trying to stop us from nuking ourselves in the face?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It&#8217;s like, no, actually, not nuking ourselves is one of the steps towards getting all these benefits. And, you know, my my work over the years has not mostly been trying to get the world to stop. My work over the years has been how do you align the AI? How do you figure out how to actually get these benefits?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">How do you figure out to like, make it do the nice things to make an AI that wants to do the nice things that cares about us, that prefers the nice things to happen. I&#8217;m like, pretty confident that the track we&#8217;re on is not going to get us there. Stepping back one step further there of like how how does this affect my daily life?</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I mean, I just try and and make things go well. And a lot of people say, you know, believing what you do about how how the world looks like it&#8217;s in a lot of danger. Um, believing what you do about how like it it looks to me like everything I know and love and care about is, you know, fairly likely to be destroyed and could be destroyed pretty soon.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Maybe we have ten years, but maybe we only have ten months. Who knows? And a lot of people say, you know, doesn&#8217;t that eat you up? How do you deal with that? How? You know, and my, my basic take there would be twisting myself up into knots about it would not help. Losing sleep over it would not help, you know, feeling sad, feeling glum, deciding I must be depressed now, feeling worried all the time.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Living in fear. This wouldn&#8217;t help. What you do in this situation is actually bad is not. Flog yourself and tell yourself how pitiful you are. What you do in this situation is actually bad, is you do what you can and then you live life well, you know, and humans are not humans in this generation are not the first humans to live under the threat of annihilation.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Even just the last generation lived under the threat of nuclear annihilation. There&#8217;s always going to be something that you can you can tell yourself is like this, this horrible thing happening. The way to deal with it is, is, is not to beat yourself up over it is to do what you can to help and then move on.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Beautifully said. Just to give you one more example of from the nuclear realm, uh, using it for good or for danger. In the 1930s, Wolfgang Pauli predicted the existence of the neutrino, and he said he did a terrible thing. You know, he invented a particle that can never be detected because it&#8217;s so weakly interacting.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And he he did it to save conservation of energy, which he viewed as sacrosanct. Right. And for decades, people couldn&#8217;t detect it. And they just kind of viewed it with great skepticism. Until the 1950s. Two physicists, rhinos and Cowans, later at UC Irvine up the road here. They came up with an idea that, well, if you want a lot of neutrinos, you should detonate a fission device, and that will produce a lot of neutrinos.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And we can use that for good to study the properties of this undetectable particle. And they actually requisitioned from the Department of War. They requisitioned, you know, a nuclear device. And thankfully they were turned down because, you know, having a bunch of egghead professors capitalizing on a nuclear device.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But then they realized they could go to a Savannah River reactor and put a detector nearby it, and they wouldn&#8217;t need to use a bomb to harness the power of the nucleus. And in fact, they did detect the neutrino, and they won the Nobel Prize. Subsequently, another example of maybe a little bit of extra thought rather than the, you know, brute force solution being something that you try first and only, and it may be your only chance at the solution.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So we may be gambling with our future. I feel like Jack Nicholson and a Few Good Men when he&#8217;s screaming out, he did order the code Red, right? I mean, he ordered the code red and he says, why did you do it? You know, Tom cruise yells at him and goes, you need people like me. You need us standing on the wall with a gun and watching out and protecting you.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">How else are you going to sleep at night? So it&#8217;s only thanks to your, you know, stomach acid that I get to sleep at night at least a little bit. And I want to thank you for this wonderful book. If anyone builds it, everyone dies. Why? Superhuman intelligence would kill us or not, will. But would. And there&#8217;s hope.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">There&#8217;s hope. Yeah, yeah. It&#8217;s in the wood. If in the wood. Thank you for adding those too. That&#8217;s right. Have a great rest of your day a wonderful weekend. Thank you for joining us.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nate Soares</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Thanks. My pleasure.</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">If you want the case that AI is already unstoppable. Watch my conversation with Roman Polsky. Its on screen now and click this link below. Brian Keating</span></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brian Keating</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">gives you all the resources for my top episodes on AI with Terry Tao, Roman Polanski, Max Tegmark, Yann LeCun and many other researchers at the forefront of AI research. Don&#8217;t forget to like and comment and subscribe and let me know if you think AI is already unstoppable, or if we need more regulation to make it so.</span></p><p><br /><br /><br /></p>								</div>
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		<title>Michael Shermer: 95% of UFO Sightings Have Boring Explanations</title>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2026 20:23:03 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Michael Shermer: 95% of UFO Sightings Have Boring Explanations Transcript Michael Shermer:I have a bet with Avi, $1,000, by December 31st, 2030, we won&#8217;t find aliens. He says we will. I hope he wins. Brian Keating:You were just named, as I&#8217;m reading this now, just last week to this new White House panel council on alien and UFO and UAP task force, okay? Now leave aside that, you know, Avi Loeb is a mutual friend of ours. You&#8217;ve been on the Galileo Project for a while. There are some, you know, characters on this committee alongside, you know, that have legitimate credentials. Dr. Gary Nolan, professor at Stanford, he&#8217;s another member who, you know, in his spare time, uh, scans the brains of abductees for a biomarker and claims to have evidence of alien, you know, uh, metallurgical isotope ratios that are anomalous. What happened, Michael? Did they get a big bag of Harvard money? Michael Shermer:And no, there&#8217;s no money. No, there&#8217;s— this is all voluntary. There&#8217;s no money at all. Same thing with the Galileo Project. I&#8217;ve been on it since the beginning, and I just do it because I&#8217;m interested in the topic. I think Avi strikes the right balance between open-mindedness and gullibility. Don&#8217;t be gullible, but be open-minded, but also be skeptical. And their emphasis on data and evidence, not stories, right? I mean, we just had our first meeting today. Michael Shermer:Avi started right off, no more stories about people who know people that touch the aliens or whatever. We&#8217;ve all heard these, okay? And no new physics, right? So you&#8217;ll appreciate this because you&#8217;re a physicist, right? I mean, it&#8217;s like people are always talking— this is Avi— people are always telling me about the, you know, the aliens are going to give us new physics. No, there&#8217;s no new physics, okay? So forget that. I mean, maybe they do, but you know, that&#8217;s just too far off the radar here. But I&#8217;m not the enemy. I mean, I, I have a bet with Avi, $1,000, right? Uh, by 20— December 31st, 2030, we won&#8217;t find aliens. He says we will. Okay, I hope he wins. Michael Shermer:I would like it to be true. The aliens are probably out there somewhere in the cosmos. Run the numbers in the Drake Equation, it&#8217;s like, yeah, okay, they&#8217;re probably out there. But have they come here? Okay, so I think that&#8217;s a, uh, that&#8217;s a far less probable proposition. We don&#8217;t know for sure. Let&#8217;s see the evidence. Okay, so when Abby puts together this team, you know, it&#8217;s like, yeah, sure, I&#8217;ll do it. He described me as the advocatus diaboli, that is the Catholic Church&#8217;s version of the devil&#8217;s advocate, which they employed to debunk all the miracle claims in the Middle Ages. Michael Shermer:Everybody had a piece of the True Cross, every, you know, these were holy relics. Everybody had the blood of this saint and this other person and so on. Okay, they know most of this is just bullshit, and they debunked it themselves. The Catholic Church was the primary skeptical debunker of miracle claims. Now, they, they still hold out, but there was this one, you know, so we&#8217;re going to give Mother Teresa the, you know, her sainthood, that kind of thing. But for the most part, they&#8217;re as skeptical as I am. So that&#8217;s my job on the team, is really just to be a good skeptic. And of course, any good scientist is a good skeptic. Michael Shermer:We start with the null hypothesis, that is, your claim about something is not true until you prove otherwise. The burden of proof is not on scientists and skeptics to debunk every particular claim, the burden of proof is on the person making the claim. I have a theory of everything. I think Einstein was wrong, and Newton was wrong, and Hawking was wrong, and here&#8217;s my theory of everything for physics. Well, you&#8217;re not going to go, okay, and then, then I guess I have to disprove it and you&#8217;re right. No, you&#8217;re going to say, I don&#8217;t believe it, but go ahead, make your case. And, uh, and we&#8217;re having a conference next week, and all the top physicists will be there. Why don&#8217;t you come and present your case for us, and we&#8217;ll We&#8217;ll judge how well you did. Michael Shermer:In the same way that all the people that made a claim that they had a miracle cure for COVID, you know, the FDA doesn&#8217;t just hand out approvals of new drugs. You actually have to present the FDA your evidence. How do you know this actually works? And you can&#8217;t just say, well, my Aunt Mary had it and she took it and she felt better. Sorry, that&#8217;s not evidence, right? That&#8217;s not enough to refute the null hypothesis. That is, reject the null hypothesis at some level of statistical significance, as they say. That&#8217;s all we&#8217;re after there. So, and the more extraordinary the claim, the more evidence you better have for it. Brian Keating:A lot of these could be, could be actual claims, you know, based on truth and facts and reality, but just complete misinterpretation, right? I mean, one, one man&#8217;s drone, you know, array in the dark could be another person&#8217;s unidentified aerial phenomena. So, but when you see people that talk about things like Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna, interdimensional beings and non-human biologics and now bipedal life forms on a spectrum. You know, ever go to Facebook and sign up for a new account and there&#8217;s, you know, 46 different selections for your gender and your pronouns and, and the University of California. I mean, oh my gosh, it&#8217;s even, even more, more impressive array. But apparently there&#8217;s a spectrum, a continuum to sentient plasmoids to bipedalism, which is, you know, the insectoids, the multidimensional beings. Michael Shermer:Yeah. There&#8217;s 4 different alien species. Yeah, I&#8217;ve heard all this. Yeah,]]></description>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Michael Shermer: 95% of UFO Sightings Have Boring Explanations</h2>				</div>
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									<h2><strong>Transcript</strong></h2><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I have a bet with Avi, $1,000, by December 31st, 2030, we won&#8217;t find aliens. He says we will. I hope he wins.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You were just named, as I&#8217;m reading this now, just last week to this new White House panel council on alien and UFO and UAP task force, okay? Now leave aside that, you know, Avi Loeb is a mutual friend of ours. You&#8217;ve been on the Galileo Project for a while. There are some, you know, characters on this committee alongside, you know, that have legitimate credentials. Dr. Gary Nolan, professor at Stanford, he&#8217;s another member who, you know, in his spare time, uh, scans the brains of abductees for a biomarker and claims to have evidence of alien, you know, uh, metallurgical isotope ratios that are anomalous. What happened, Michael? Did they get a big bag of Harvard money?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />And no, there&#8217;s no money. No, there&#8217;s— this is all voluntary. There&#8217;s no money at all. Same thing with the Galileo Project. I&#8217;ve been on it since the beginning, and I just do it because I&#8217;m interested in the topic. I think Avi strikes the right balance between open-mindedness and gullibility. Don&#8217;t be gullible, but be open-minded, but also be skeptical. And their emphasis on data and evidence, not stories, right? I mean, we just had our first meeting today.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Avi started right off, no more stories about people who know people that touch the aliens or whatever. We&#8217;ve all heard these, okay? And no new physics, right? So you&#8217;ll appreciate this because you&#8217;re a physicist, right? I mean, it&#8217;s like people are always talking— this is Avi— people are always telling me about the, you know, the aliens are going to give us new physics. No, there&#8217;s no new physics, okay? So forget that. I mean, maybe they do, but you know, that&#8217;s just too far off the radar here. But I&#8217;m not the enemy. I mean, I, I have a bet with Avi, $1,000, right? Uh, by 20— December 31st, 2030, we won&#8217;t find aliens. He says we will. Okay, I hope he wins.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I would like it to be true. The aliens are probably out there somewhere in the cosmos. Run the numbers in the Drake Equation, it&#8217;s like, yeah, okay, they&#8217;re probably out there. But have they come here? Okay, so I think that&#8217;s a, uh, that&#8217;s a far less probable proposition. We don&#8217;t know for sure. Let&#8217;s see the evidence. Okay, so when Abby puts together this team, you know, it&#8217;s like, yeah, sure, I&#8217;ll do it. He described me as the advocatus diaboli, that is the Catholic Church&#8217;s version of the devil&#8217;s advocate, which they employed to debunk all the miracle claims in the Middle Ages.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Everybody had a piece of the True Cross, every, you know, these were holy relics. Everybody had the blood of this saint and this other person and so on. Okay, they know most of this is just bullshit, and they debunked it themselves. The Catholic Church was the primary skeptical debunker of miracle claims. Now, they, they still hold out, but there was this one, you know, so we&#8217;re going to give Mother Teresa the, you know, her sainthood, that kind of thing. But for the most part, they&#8217;re as skeptical as I am. So that&#8217;s my job on the team, is really just to be a good skeptic. And of course, any good scientist is a good skeptic.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />We start with the null hypothesis, that is, your claim about something is not true until you prove otherwise. The burden of proof is not on scientists and skeptics to debunk every particular claim, the burden of proof is on the person making the claim. I have a theory of everything. I think Einstein was wrong, and Newton was wrong, and Hawking was wrong, and here&#8217;s my theory of everything for physics. Well, you&#8217;re not going to go, okay, and then, then I guess I have to disprove it and you&#8217;re right. No, you&#8217;re going to say, I don&#8217;t believe it, but go ahead, make your case. And, uh, and we&#8217;re having a conference next week, and all the top physicists will be there. Why don&#8217;t you come and present your case for us, and we&#8217;ll We&#8217;ll judge how well you did.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />In the same way that all the people that made a claim that they had a miracle cure for COVID, you know, the FDA doesn&#8217;t just hand out approvals of new drugs. You actually have to present the FDA your evidence. How do you know this actually works? And you can&#8217;t just say, well, my Aunt Mary had it and she took it and she felt better. Sorry, that&#8217;s not evidence, right? That&#8217;s not enough to refute the null hypothesis. That is, reject the null hypothesis at some level of statistical significance, as they say. That&#8217;s all we&#8217;re after there. So, and the more extraordinary the claim, the more evidence you better have for it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />A lot of these could be, could be actual claims, you know, based on truth and facts and reality, but just complete misinterpretation, right? I mean, one, one man&#8217;s drone, you know, array in the dark could be another person&#8217;s unidentified aerial phenomena. So, but when you see people that talk about things like Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna, interdimensional beings and non-human biologics and now bipedal life forms on a spectrum. You know, ever go to Facebook and sign up for a new account and there&#8217;s, you know, 46 different selections for your gender and your pronouns and, and the University of California. I mean, oh my gosh, it&#8217;s even, even more, more impressive array. But apparently there&#8217;s a spectrum, a continuum to sentient plasmoids to bipedalism, which is, you know, the insectoids, the multidimensional beings.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Yeah. There&#8217;s 4 different alien species. Yeah, I&#8217;ve heard all this. Yeah, it&#8217;s crazy. I don&#8217;t believe any of it. As a good Bayesian, show me, you know, doesn&#8217;t have to be me personally. I never personally saw the Chinese spy balloon, for example, but I trust the government, the Air Force, the Pentagon, Secretary of State, the president, all the news networks that showed it and so on. Okay, that&#8217;s good enough.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />If Marco Rubio shows up tomorrow and says, I&#8217;m here with a camera crew and the Secretary of War and the president, and here we are in Area 51 and we found the aliens, we have a big announcement. Here it is. And all the networks are there covering it. And, you know, experts are there. You&#8217;re there, you know, Brian Keating, our physicist, he&#8217;s there. And I don&#8217;t have to see it personally. I would trust you and maybe Marco Rubio and whatever, you know. So, but, but that hasn&#8217;t happened, right? So this was our, this is our complaint.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I&#8217;ve been following the UFO story since the early &#8217;90s, really since Carl Sagan. Well, he&#8217;s over my left shoulder there. In the &#8217;80s. And, and I&#8217;ve been hearing about disclosure coming any day now. And I&#8217;m like, okay, this would be great. Yeah, I know, it&#8217;s the greatest discovery of all time. Let&#8217;s see it. And all we ever get is, sorry, can&#8217;t show you, it&#8217;s classified.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />He won&#8217;t tell us because his life is threatened. Or, you know, I can only tell you in a SCIF. Or, you know, they&#8217;re buried somewhere and it&#8217;s a national security— yeah, okay. And so we&#8217;re still waiting. So I&#8217;ve become ever more skeptical.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Let&#8217;s stipulate that if Grusch knows classified information, and he&#8217;s not supposed to, just because he was in the intelligence community, I&#8217;ve interviewed, you know, 12 people that are in the intelligence community, it means a lot of different things. It doesn&#8217;t mean, you know, top secret clearance at all levels at all times, right? So there&#8217;s different levels. But let&#8217;s just assume the worst case scenario for him, that he could reveal this, he could go to jail, he could lose his livelihood, he could have his, you know, home address doxxed, and so forth. And that might compromise his recent deal that I heard about with Jerry Bruckheimer for movie that he&#8217;s working on. Okay, fine. I&#8217;m not— I&#8217;m not going to wish that harm on anybody. I have members of the military and these— and the 3-letter agencies in my extended family. And especially I didn&#8217;t have the cojones to join the military like he did.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay, so, so fine. However, Anna Paulina Luna is the chairwoman of this task force. You know, this, this workforce in the congressional committee. Is she worried about her income? Is she worried about getting doxxed? Is she worried about what penalties would come to her? In other words, David Grusch could tell her something in a SCIF or not in a SCIF. She claims to already know it, right? He already told her about the non-human biology. objects, sentient plasmoids, and the interdimensional beings, and now these bipedal beings, which, you know, just keeps going up the escalation ladder, right? So where is the unlock here for her? Can you make that case? Why can&#8217;t she come forward?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Okay, so what do you— what do we make of people that tell stories? Like, Grusch tells us a story. Okay, we&#8217;ve heard a lot of these stories. His sounds more credible than the, you know, the tinfoil hat wingnut that, uh, is a nobody. Credentials matter a little bit just to get a hearing. I think you know maybe there&#8217;s something for that, but after that you still have to have evidence. So you know when okay so they claim they&#8217;re interdimensional beings or whatever. This is just a hand wave. This is a way of saying I can&#8217;t actually show you anything because they&#8217;re invisible.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />All right. So in the book, as you know, I present Sagan&#8217;s dragon. You know I have a dragon in my garage. Would like to see it? Yeah, sure. Okay. And I open my garage and you don&#8217;t see anything. I go well it&#8217;s an invisible dragon. And you go okay, Shermer.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Let&#8217;s sprinkle some flour on the ground and we&#8217;ll see the footprints of the invisible dragon. Well, no, you see, Brian, this dragon hovers above the ground about a foot. It levitates. Oh, an invisible levitating dragon. How about we get one of those heat thermometers and outline that body heat? No, this is a cold-blooded dragon. What about the fire? No, it breathes cold fire. At some point you&#8217;re going to ask, what&#8217;s the difference between a, you know, levitating invisible cold-blooded dragon and no dragon at all, right? So at some point the stories have to end and we have to have evidence, or else It&#8217;s not science. It&#8217;s just science fiction or metaphysics or whatever you want to call it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So how do you interact with these people? I mean, Gary Nolan is claiming that he, you know, he scanned the brain. He claims he witnessed an event. I interviewed him a couple of years back. He claims, you know, he saw the object over pine trees and so forth. You&#8217;re face to face with these people, Zoom to Zoom with them. How do you comport yourself?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />My first assumption with anybody is that they&#8217;re not making this up. They&#8217;re not lying. I would assume David Grusch is not just lying, making up a story. This does happen. I mean, I think Bob Lazar is probably a fabulist, you know, because he did make up his claim that he had graduate degrees from MIT and Caltech. He didn&#8217;t even attend either school, okay? And that was debunked and exposed by his fellow ufologists, not by skeptics. So that&#8217;s all you need to know. Anything else the person says, I&#8217;m not going to believe them or even listen to them because If they could lie about something so easily checkable.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />In the case of Gary Nolan, yeah, he&#8217;s a real scientist. Maybe he did see something. Okay. I&#8217;m going to give that assumption. Lots of people see things. Most UAP, UFO sightings in history are actual things. They&#8217;re what I call ordinary terrestrial objects. All right.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Let me read you, uh, I&#8217;ll give you, uh, Leslie Kean&#8217;s list of, of, um—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, first tell the audience who Kean is.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Okay. So Leslie Kean is the, uh, where&#8217;s my alien chapter here? Leslie Kean is the, uh, ufologist that wrote the book, um, Well, she wrote the New York Times article about this in which she first introduced the idea of the government, the Pentagon, having a UAP program. Okay, so her book is UFOs: Generals, Pilots, and Government Officials Go on the Record. Her own quote, which I provide in the book, is that roughly 90 to 95% of all UFO sightings can be explained as weather balloons, flares, sky lanterns, planes flying in formation, Secret military aircraft. Birds reflecting the sun. Planes reflecting the sun. Blimps. Helicopters.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />The planets Venus or Mars. Meteors or meteorites. Space junk. Satellites. Swamp gas. Spinning eddies. Sundogs. Ball lightning.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Ice crystals. Reflected light off the ground. Clouds. Lights on the ground. Lights reflected on a cockpit window. Temperature inversions. Hole punch clouds. And so on.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Okay, so, you know, as they say, you know, if you hear, if you hear hoofbeats, think horse, not zebra. Because that&#8217;s what&#8217;s most likely to be, right? So like in the case, just take as an example, the New Jersey UAP flap in the fall of &#8217;24. This was just before the election. It got a lot of media coverage. And Trump said after he won, when I get into office in January, we&#8217;re going to go figure out what this, this UAP flap was over New Jersey. Okay. Turned out it was just drones and regular ordinary terrestrial objects like airplanes, birds, the planet Venus, and especially Starlink satellites. The effect is that people who don&#8217;t normally walk outside and look up into the sky, uh, because they&#8217;re busy, they&#8217;re just regular people, and now I heard these media stories, so they&#8217;re like, oh, I&#8217;m going to go outside and when it&#8217;s dark and look up.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />And they&#8217;re amazed to see— I mean, when you see Venus, if you don&#8217;t know what you&#8217;re looking at, it is striking, right? I know this because I live up in the mountains above Santa Barbara, way up in the hills.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And he knows a famous astronomer, right?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Yeah. And when you When, when I bring people up there, they&#8217;re like, oh my God, what is that? I go, that&#8217;s Venus. I&#8217;ll show you. Here&#8217;s the binoculars, right? And they&#8217;re like, oh my God. And now, because there&#8217;s so many Starlink satellites, there&#8217;s over 10,000 of them. I have a big old mean 10-inch telescope and I, I&#8217;m looking at Jupiter, Saturn. There&#8217;s the rings and the, and the moons and so on. Every time now a satellite streaks by in my little eyepiece.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />And I&#8217;ve seen stuff on X, hopefully not anymore. Now that everybody knows about Starlink, uh, people are going, oh my God, look at this thing going around Jupiter, or there&#8217;s a, there&#8217;s a spaceship going around Saturn. It&#8217;s like, no, it&#8217;s a Starlink satellite going through our atmosphere, right? So that&#8217;s how I think about it. Okay, so what about the other 5 or 10%, the anomalies? There are, there are those. I&#8217;m going to assume that Nolan and everybody else said that they actually saw something that they don&#8217;t know what it was. And that&#8217;s all the U means is I don&#8217;t know what it is. Okay, so then the other 2 options: extraordinary terrestrial. So this is the claim that UAPs are like Russian or Chinese super advanced technologies, or they&#8217;re part of the DARPA program from back-engineered crash retrieval programs the United States has.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Okay, we can dispense with that fairly quickly because first, the counterfactual— if this was true, what else would be true? If Russia had a technology that was like centuries ahead of everybody else, Wouldn&#8217;t they use it in Ukraine? If we had this technology, wouldn&#8217;t Trump have used it in Iran? Okay, we had everything else. We bombed the crap out of them with all our super advanced jets and, and missiles and drones. Why wouldn&#8217;t we use these spacecraft that could supposedly turn on a dime and, you know, pull 500 Gs and, and, and so forth? We don&#8217;t see anybody doing that. And that&#8217;s not how the history of science and technology works anyway. Nobody gets very far ahead of anybody. I mean, the Russians stole our plans from the Manhattan Project during the Manhattan Project, right? Klaus Fuchs stole our plans and gave them to the Russians. They had a bomb within a couple years. Every one of these smartphones— I happen to have an iPhone, but they&#8217;re all the same, right? No, no company, no matter how much property rights and secrecy they have and intellectual property that they protect, nobody gets ahead of anybody else.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />They&#8217;re all pretty much the same. I happen to have an Apple laptop, but all the laptops are pretty much the same. Nobody has the equivalent of like 2 centuries ahead of everybody else.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Like quantum computing iPhone, right?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />The moment something like a quantum computing thing actually works, everyone, all the other companies will have it, other countries will do it. It&#8217;s just not how things work. So the last hypothesis, could it be extraordinary extraterrestrial? It could be. However, and I&#8217;m talking to somebody who knows way more about this than I do, that The universe is just mostly empty space. It&#8217;s vast distances between the stars. The chances of them finding us, you know, are very, very slim, right? So this is when the hand waving comes in. Well, you know, they have super advanced— they have warp drive, so they don&#8217;t have to, you know, take 70,000 years to get here from the nearest star. They get here in, you know, like 10 minutes through the wormhole, you know, or like Sagan used a wormhole to get to Vega.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Right, in contact. But this is science fiction, right? There&#8217;s— we— there&#8217;s no such thing as, you know, new warp physics that we know of, right? You know, it could happen. Yeah, I mean, if the aliens are 100,000 years ahead of us, which they would be if we made contact with them, then yeah, maybe. But that, that, that doesn&#8217;t mean that that&#8217;s what&#8217;s happening. It&#8217;s more likely just a light, a balloon. It&#8217;s the camera motion, right? A lot of these UAPs are just The camera zooms in on the object, and so it looks like it moves, but it&#8217;s not. The camera&#8217;s moving, you know, or the camera&#8217;s tracking it, tracking it, tracking it. The object&#8217;s moving, moving, moving.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Then the camera stops and the object zooms off. It&#8217;s not doing anything. It&#8217;s not zooming at 50,000 miles an hour. It&#8217;s not doing anything. It&#8217;s the camera moving, right? So even the hardcore, you know, UAP people that study this stuff, they go, yeah, yeah, okay, that one&#8217;s a camera effect. That&#8217;s a parallax effect. And so on. But what about this one? Okay, so here&#8217;s the, the residue of anomalies problem.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />There will always be weird shit that happens that nobody could explain, right? So I&#8217;ve been reading about— maybe you want to riff on this for a second— from the James Webb Space Telescope. I&#8217;ve been reading about and getting queries to skeptics, hey, should we be skeptical of the Big Bang Theory, inflationary cosmology? It&#8217;s all wrong because these galaxies and black holes are formed way too early in the early universe. What do I know? Okay, maybe this is normal science, right? Just the better our instruments get, the more weird stuff we find that the old theory doesn&#8217;t explain completely. Maybe it needs to be updated. I don&#8217;t know. But, you know, as you know, there are people going, oh, the Big Bang theory is dead. I&#8217;m thinking probably not. But maybe, maybe you have an opinion.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />The Big Bang theory is safe, at least around this household. But of course, you know, as Upton Sinclair said, it&#8217;s hard to teach a man to believe something that his job depends on him not believing in. We have abundant evidence. I mean, that&#8217;s the thing I just saw today. Diary of a CEO, my My friend Stephen Bartlett. I&#8217;ve been on his show.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Oh, right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And we&#8217;ve been in contact with each other. I was on it a year ago and I just saw JD Vance was on it today. And Stephen&#8217;s little shtick at the end of every episode is to ask a guest to leave a question for the next guest. And so Stephen put, you know, has millions of dollars in media exposure. He does, he&#8217;s an incredible person. He&#8217;s got 30 people on the team. It&#8217;s an amazing thing. He&#8217;s gonna be the next Rogan or maybe even surpass Rogan in many ways.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He&#8217;s a very innovative person. Anyway, JD, I look and they zoom in on the— on what is the question that JD is asking? This is— it&#8217;s, do you believe in God, yes or no, and why or why not? And I just thought it was like— I thought JD was a smart person. That&#8217;s like one of the— one of the worst questions you can ask. I mean, it tells you nothing. It tells you—</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Well, didn&#8217;t he just find God? Didn&#8217;t he just become a Catholic or something like that?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Just— I mean, he&#8217;s been a Catholic, you know. I was a Catholic, you know. I was a Jew, then I was a Catholic, then I was nothing. Now I&#8217;m back to back to being Jewish, right? So who am I to criticize? I was an altar boy, Michael, Jewish altar boy, didn&#8217;t have a bar mitzvah. So who knows more about, you know, kind of ecumenicalism than me? But, but this question of belief, like, I don&#8217;t believe in gravity. I always say that I don&#8217;t believe in gravity. I have evidence for gravity. And so when we have low signal-to-noise regimes, as you talk about in the book, you will always have these unfalsifiable claims.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But what&#8217;s, what&#8217;s kind of a little bit more disturbing to me, and I don&#8217;t know why, it&#8217;s not It&#8217;s not that people have different facts. That actually doesn&#8217;t bother me. It&#8217;s that people have different epistemological techniques and toolboxes and frameworks. In other words, you know, it&#8217;s not that truth is unfindable necessarily. It&#8217;s that everyone&#8217;s got their own, you know, their own truth, their own method of finding truth, their own epistemology. Where does that come in? How pernicious is that to you?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Well, very pernicious. But we have to make a distinction between different kinds of truth. So most of the truths I&#8217;m talking about, these kind of provisional Bayesian-type truths or scientific empirical truths for which I spend a fair amount of time in the book describing, you know, correlation and causation and signal detection theory and confounding variables and randomized controlled trials and the comparative method— all these instruments that scientists have developed to try to get at the truth of something that we can all see, right? So I start with the assumption that none of us are God, we&#8217;re not omniscient, therefore we&#8217;re fallible. So fallibilism. So there is an objective reality, universal realism, it&#8217;s out there, we can know something about it but not everything. So you and I and everybody has to work together to see what we think is true, because any of us could be wrong. Okay, all that applies to these kinds of empirical questions. Now, there are other questions.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I could put these, say, in the literary or religious kind of truths, or mythological truths if you want to go full Jordan Peterson and Joseph Campbell. It&#8217;s a different kind of truth. So, I start simply like something like J.R.R. Tolkien&#8217;s Lord of the Rings. Is there really a Middle-earth somewhere on the planet? Well, now some of my friends tell me, yeah, it&#8217;s in New Zealand where they filmed the movies. Like, okay, yeah. But no, of course he just made this up. You know, J.K.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Rowling&#8217;s train station, 9¾ in Harry Potter. There&#8217;s no such thing. Okay. Although I double-checked that when I was fact-checking, and sure enough, some fans built a fake train station in London that says 9¾. But what makes great literature great is that it has deeper truths about the human condition, human relationships and love and jealousy and anger. And And power and truth-telling and lying and deception and all the human things that great novelists write about. So the stories are made up, the characters are made up, the things didn&#8217;t actually happen, but you&#8217;re— you&#8217;re— you got to read into the story what is being said. Okay, now most religious people will go with me a little ways.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Like if I say, you know, do you think Jonah was actually swallowed by a great fish or a whale or whatever and spent 3 days in the belly of the fish? If you&#8217;re asking that, you, you&#8217;ve missed the point of the story, right? The 3 days is symbolic. You know, he&#8217;s here, then God delivers him to this other land through the fish, whatever, it doesn&#8217;t matter. And he delivers this message from God to these other people that have to find redemption and start over and so forth. All right, so it&#8217;s a kind of a redemption story. Yeah, most religious people go, yeah, okay, I get that. Yeah, sure, whether there really was an Adam and Eve is not that important. You know, there&#8217;s no evidence that, you know, Moses led his people out of the— into the desert for 40 years. And so, you know, maybe it&#8217;s just a story about something deeper.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Okay, now I&#8217;ve tried this out, as you know from, from those chapters in the book. I&#8217;ve tried this out all the way up to the resurrection. Maybe the resurrection of Jesus didn&#8217;t actually happen. Maybe it&#8217;s just a story that the Jewish people, uh, at the time, some told themselves as an oppression-redemption story about the Messiah that&#8217;s going to come and overthrow the Romans and start anew, right? That, that&#8217;s what the Jewish people thought the Messiah was going to be. That spun that into a completely different story that Most Christians today say, no, no, that&#8217;s not mythologically true. That is literally true, right? There&#8217;s one person out of the 100 billion who have lived and died before us who came back from the dead. He was dead for 3 days. There&#8217;s that 3 days again.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />And the tomb is empty, and the women went there, they didn&#8217;t see him. And then there was the post-death apparitions, and, and so on and so forth. Okay, you know the arguments. Okay, I&#8217;m— my, my point is that you&#8217;re— I think you&#8217;re missing the point of the story. Right? It&#8217;s a story about starting over, about redemption, forgiveness, and about like, let&#8217;s rebuild our own society here now. Jesus himself said heaven is within you, right? He has this passage in Matthew, you know, people ask me where, when&#8217;s it coming, where is it? And he&#8217;s like, it&#8217;s not there, it&#8217;s not here, it&#8217;s in here, right? I&#8217;m talking about heaven in here, you know. So I think we should take, we should take his words, you know, literally. That&#8217;s what he meant.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />He meant, you know, not some place that happens in the afterlife. Anyway, so my Christian friends are not vibing this, right? But I&#8217;m trying to make the point that I think religious stories serve a different purpose. And here I use an example, like when the preacher says the church has a parking lot in the back, you can go see it yourself. You can fact-check that. But when the preacher says, you know, God is 3 in 1, 1 in 3, Father, Son, and Holy Ghost, the Trinity and all that, how is anybody sitting there in the church going to go, well, I&#8217;m going to go check that one out myself and decide if I think it&#8217;s true or not? Nobody does that, because how would you, right? So people go, yeah, okay, I just, I guess I believe it, or no, I don&#8217;t really believe it, I&#8217;m gonna go to this other church, or whatever. But there&#8217;s— it&#8217;s a different category than the stuff you and I are talking about. Like, we can get our, we can get our hands on this, we can sink our teeth in it, we can look at the evidence, we can vote, we can publish, you know, we can go to a conference and try to convince our colleagues. None of that happens in religion, right? So I think it&#8217;s a different kind of thing.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I mean, to push back, I mean, there are, you know, this is an old, old, you know, theme in Judaism, for example. And there are various, you know, kind of answers to this dating back to, you know, the equivalent of St. Thomas Aquinas, you know, in many ways for Judaism was Maimonides, who&#8217;s a, you know, physician and a philosopher and a natural scientist such as it was at the time throughout the Mediterranean and the Spanish Tree Inquisition. And, you know, he talked about this and sort of the chain of lies that you would— like, if there was a— if this were not true, If Jesus were not him, he wasn&#8217;t talking about Jesus, but I can use that example. Like, there are 3 different possibilities, right? He was the true, you know, Lord, or he was a lunatic, or he was just kind of a charismatic cult leader, effectively. But at some level, you have to believe that there was a lie and that that lie gets propagated through generation to generation. And, you know, you can sort of maintain— as I forget who said it, yeah, I think it was Mark Twain— 3 can maintain a conspiracy if 2 are dead, right? So you wrote about that in your last book. So at what level do you, do you start to say that human nature is somehow evolving? In other words, they&#8217;re more comfortable with lies, or they knew that their lies might not ever come to be, and, and just sort of knowing evidentiary waiting.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />How could they know? The Torah says, ask the history, or, you know, seek out from past, has any people ever been revealed to God by God and lived? And if you go back, there&#8217;s a bunch of people where they claim to have experienced God or been— have revelation, including the Hindu tradition, but they all died in the Bhagavad Gita, right? They all die. Uh, and so you can look for it. And okay, this is not proof, but what do you make of this kind of grand lie design? For me to have been misled for, you know, thousands of years— I, you know, I have to lie to my kids, and I have to have been lied to by my grandparents ad infinitum, back to, you know, Moses on Mount Sinai. So what do you make of that kind of chain of reasoning? That&#8217;s not proof, it&#8217;s not evidence.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />It is in between, uh, empirical truths and just making stuff up. I mean, the argument, you know, Jesus was, you know, liar, lord, or lunatic. That&#8217;s the C.S. Lewis line. How about just genuinely mistaken? He just, you know, I&#8217;m just delivering a message that people heard something slightly different than in the retelling and retelling. I mean, the earliest gospels are written 40 years after the fact. The other ones are 50, 60, 80, 90 years after. And then the Book of Acts even later.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />And then the Bible just gets piled on, you know, centuries later. Right? So it&#8217;s not canonized until the 5th century. So we&#8217;re talking centuries of piling up these stories. No one has to lie about anything. You can just retell the story, and it changes, and it changes, and it changes. I think, you know, parts of Jesus&#8217;s message are really good. Bart Ehrman&#8217;s new book, you know, Love Thy Stranger, about the Christian ethics and how that changed the world. There probably was a Jesus, but I don&#8217;t think he was a Lord.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />But I don&#8217;t think he was—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You know, which has some reason to be, you know, kind of antagonistic towards Jesus. I mean, towards Christians, not Jesus, We know his rabbi. We know why he was kind of banned by the Jewish Pharisees at the time. I think it&#8217;s near historical. I mean, you could dispute the Shroud of Turin, and yeah, of course. In terms of historicity of records, the Jews are pretty good about that, and that we do have records of his rabbi and his teacher and his tradition.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Oh yeah, sure, absolutely. I don&#8217;t dispute any of that. Yeah, I think a man named Jesus existed. Okay, but let me ask you this: why don&#8217;t Jews accept the resurrection if it&#8217;s empirically, literally true? and it can be proved. You know, there&#8217;s whole books about it. Here&#8217;s all the arguments for why you should believe that the resurrection happened. Okay, Jews know these arguments. They&#8217;ve read those books.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />You can&#8217;t just say, if those rabbis knew our arguments, they would believe in Jesus. They know your arguments. They just don&#8217;t believe it. First, the Jews didn&#8217;t think that&#8217;s what the Messiah would be like. They thought the Messiah would be a conquering warrior that would overthrow the Roman Empire and so on, establish this new land. That&#8217;s not what happened. Jesus was captured and killed, along with a couple of nobody thieves, and then his body disappeared. Who knows what happened to it, right? It was a nobody.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />So that&#8217;s not who the Jews thought would be coming, not the carpenter from Nazareth. Okay, so, um, right there, that&#8217;s— to me, that&#8217;s a pretty indicting argument there. If— because the Jews believe in the same God, Yahweh, they believe in the same book, the Old Testament anyway, and they even believe that there&#8217;s a Messiah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I mean, I&#8217;ve talked to Ben Shapiro about this. He believes all that, right? He&#8217;s just like, nope, I don&#8217;t think it was that guy. I&#8217;m sorry, I just don&#8217;t think it was.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So you&#8217;ve written another wonderful book with a single-word title, and you know we always love to do what you&#8217;re not supposed to do, but you have a chapter on Bayesian evidence, so we have to judge this book by its cover. Hey book lovers, we&#8217;re judging books by their covers. We know we&#8217;re So Michael, take us through the title, the subtitle, and this mysterious cover artwork.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I actually had nothing to do with the design of it. I, I&#8217;m guessing they wanted that. That&#8217;s the North Star and the North Star. My North Star is truth. Our North Star should be truth, not ideology, not politics, not religion, but you know, just whatever is truth. I start off first by saying we&#8217;re not living in a post-truth alternative facts, fake news world. If we were living in a post-truth world, the people that make that case, they make a case. They, they argue, they present evidence and arguments that we are, which means that we&#8217;re not.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />That is, they&#8217;ve lost the argument the moment they open their mouth to make an argument, because that&#8217;s the whole point of the search for truth, is to make arguments.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What does it even mean, post-truth? I mean, if you say something&#8217;s post-truth, that means there are no truths, and therefore what they say is paradoxically not something.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Yeah, that&#8217;s what I&#8217;m saying. In reality, of course, I&#8217;d get into this a little bit more. What they&#8217;re really saying is that there&#8217;s been challenges to the truth-seeking institutions like the academy and scientific institutions and the CDC and Anthony Fauci and climate scientists and, you know, the whole routine, vaccine scientists and whatnot. So really what they&#8217;re saying is, I don&#8217;t really trust the scientists like I used to. Not that we&#8217;re living in a post-truth world. People on the other side say, you know, we do have the truth and you should all believe it. But that&#8217;s also fraught by overselling your confidence in a particular claim without putting any Bayesian probabilities on it, means that if you&#8217;re wrong, people go, hey, you said that the masks worked, now they don&#8217;t. Or you said we had to close the schools, but hey, wait a minute.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Or I see Al Gore is claiming that all of his claims in Inconvenient Truth were true, but I&#8217;m also seeing sites going, they&#8217;re all wrong, and here&#8217;s why, boom, boom, boom. It&#8217;s like, okay. So I think when people say post-truth, I think that&#8217;s what they mean. It&#8217;s like, how come we can&#8217;t get agreement? On what we are supposed to believe. And then I define truth as something confirmed to such an extent it would be reasonable to offer our provisional assent— rational to offer our provisional assent. Provisional as in it could change, and truth as in small-t truth. It&#8217;s provisionally true. This is what we&#8217;re confident in at the moment.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />That could all change. And so, from there, that allows you to put truth as a truth-seeking as a virtue without having to be right or wrong. And therefore, it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s a virtue to change your mind if the evidence changes, rather than, uh, it&#8217;s a threat to your identity or your politics or your religion, in which people put their backs up and refuse to, you know, engage because they feel like it&#8217;s a threat to them. So that&#8217;s kind of the thrust of the book.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />How do you define, you know, kind of the difference between changing your mind, which is a commendable attribute, I suppose, those versus changing your model. I&#8217;m thinking of— there are a lot of internet charlatans and people— I won&#8217;t say he&#8217;s a charlatan, but there&#8217;s a guy I follow who&#8217;s really into Bitcoin and he&#8217;s always got some new thing. And his main hypothesis was that the Bitcoin cycle runs on the monetary cycle, which runs on every 4 years in the election cycle. And so, we&#8217;re due for a huge rebound in the beginning of 2026. And I don&#8217;t know how much you follow crypto, but it&#8217;s certainly not been— So then he said, oh, actually, it&#8217;s actually a 5-year cycle. And, and I&#8217;m waiting, and it&#8217;s going to peak in, uh, in mid-2026. He said that in January. We are at mid-2026 now.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s, you know, who knows? But the thesis never changes, no matter how much, you know, Maynard Keynes said, you know, when the facts change, I change my mind. Okay, fine. But where&#8217;s the virtue in changing your model? Isn&#8217;t that kind of, you know, moving the goalposts and the sharpshooter fallacy?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I&#8217;ve been following people since I was an undergraduate at Pepperdine University in the &#8217;70s who are into these invest in gold and silver, and here&#8217;s my newsletter of how to beat the market, and all these kinds of things. I even went to a seminar with friend of mine, my roommate at the time, about how you don&#8217;t actually have to pay taxes, that this is not, uh, legal, that Congress never approved the income tax law and all that stuff, and here&#8217;s what you got to do, and so on and so forth. And, you know, they walked us through the whole thing. And so my buddy&#8217;s like, that&#8217;s it, I&#8217;m just going to follow these steps and I&#8217;m never paying income tax again. But, you know, he got caught later, you know, years down the line, because we were just poor starving students, so The IRS doesn&#8217;t care about us, but eventually caught up with them. But it&#8217;s a little bit like that, you know, on these gold investment or crypto newsletter guys. I never trust them because they&#8217;re selling something first. You know, you should invest in my fund, you should sign up for my newsletter, you should do this and that.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />And they&#8217;re mutually contradicting each other. I mean, you know, they all make claims, but they&#8217;re not consistently like that. Here&#8217;s a good statistical artifact here. There was a guy named Bill Miller. and a hedge fund manager who beat the S&amp;P 500 15 years in a row. All right, so you do the calculations like, oh my God, the odds of this are like 370 million to 1. You know, he&#8217;s the greatest hedge fund manager of all time, and so on and so forth. But in fact, this is called base rate neglect.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />How many hedge fund managers are there? There&#8217;s over 6,000 of them. Okay, at the beginning of 15 years, can you tell me which of these 6,000 hedge fund managers is going to beat the S&amp;P 500 over the next 15 years?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />No.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />No, you can&#8217;t. Nobody can, right? After the fact, you could go back and go, oh, those are the companies that succeeded, that&#8217;s the guy that made the most money, and let&#8217;s just do what they did. No, that doesn&#8217;t work. And in fact, after the fact, if you go back to see how those people and companies do the next 15 years, they just go back to where everybody else is, right?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You know, in terms of like modern-day parallels, you know, not to make, you know, too, too, uh, big a record scratch here, but But, you know, the Feynman kind of standard is that only that which can be verified experimentally is valid. In other words, maybe a riff on Popper as well, which is, you know, neither one of which is, you know, truly held by, you know, modern philosophers of science to be the sine qua non of good science. I mean, there&#8217;s many more things than just falsifiability and experimental evidence, but we all agree that that&#8217;s a big plus. And on the back of your book is an encomium for many people, but one of whom is Brian Greene, you know, my kid&#8217;s favorite physicist named Brian. But Brian Greene gives you this wonderful encomium, right? But he&#8217;s of course known most especially for being the hype man for— and I&#8217;ve had him on the show and I&#8217;ve talked to him many times, but he&#8217;s the biggest hype man aside from Michio Kaku, who we&#8217;ll come to later, because I think he is also engaging in a myth-making fairy tale that needs to be countered in some way. And I&#8217;ve taken it upon myself to start doing that lately. But Brian Greene, you know, is known for the, you know, string theory sort of being the only game in town and that this is, you know, just We, you know, we&#8217;re not worthy of string theory, and it kind of fell into the 20th century, but it&#8217;s really from the 23rd century. You know, all this stuff.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And the leading string theorists like Witten and Seiberg have said things like, well, if something comes along and it&#8217;s not consistent with string theory, we&#8217;ll just kind of rebrand it as string theory, and then it&#8217;ll be part of string theory. So if that&#8217;s not true, if that doesn&#8217;t count, string theory, where you rely on it quite heavily towards the end of the book in the cosmology section— well, you talk about M-theory and Hawking&#8217;s theory. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You talk about Milad now, and all these things are just fanciful nonsense. I mean, no real practicing physicist thinks that Hawking really had anything important to say about the origin of the universe in terms of M-theory. No, there are very few people that work on M-theory anymore. Supersymmetry is another thing that&#8217;s not worked on anymore. You talk about the variable speed of light.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I wish you had sent me the book beforehand, Michael, because there are some quibbles I would have pointed out to you, and maybe that Brian Greene could have been a Keating on the back. But anyway, Michael, so is metaphysics kosher? Religion is some form of metaphysical presentation. are they, are they legitimate avenues?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Okay, let me, let me back up and give you my thinking here. Those chapters, you know, God, why is there something rather than nothing, consciousness, and free will, are all in the third part of the book called The Known Unknowables. I&#8217;m not sure that we can get an answer to the question the way these questions are phrased. In the case of consciousness, what&#8217;s it like to be something else? It&#8217;s not possible to know that, you know, so it&#8217;s all going to be somewhat speculative. Uh, you know, free will and determinism— I know all the arguments. Determinists have great arguments. I think they&#8217;re wrong. It may not be something anybody can actually prove.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />This may be one of these pragmatic truths. I also talk about this, like, I use the example of Martin Gardner, who was one of the founders of the modern skeptical movement, and he was there with Amazing Randy and, and Paul Kurtz and others that started the skeptics, you know, that we came on board in the early &#8217;90s. And he was a famous debunker of astrology and psychics and Uri Geller spoon bending and all that that bullshit. But, you know, later in his life, in an interview with me actually in Skeptic, he said, I, I&#8217;m a believer in God. I&#8217;m a fideist. F-I-D-E-I-S-T. Fideist, which is a kind of theist in a pragmatic sense that William James and Miguel Unamuno meant. That is to say, if it&#8217;s a big important question, we cannot answer it ultimately through science or rationality or logic, and it makes a difference in your life, then just go ahead and believe whatever you want.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />It doesn&#8217;t matter. And he says, I believe in God, I believe in an afterlife, I believe in prayer. You know, of course, people like Randy are like, what, Martin? How could you say this? And he&#8217;s like, I&#8217;m not saying I can prove it. I&#8217;m not saying you should believe. I&#8217;ll even say that the atheists have slightly better arguments than the theists. I&#8217;m just saying no one can prove it for sure, and this is what works for me. It&#8217;s sort of ending the conversation empirically. It&#8217;s like, okay, you know, so somebody says—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Offshoot of a riff on Pascal, right?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I mean, it is. Well, kind of, but not Yeah. Not a bet for the next life. It&#8217;s like, this is what works for me in my life now. Okay, so if I want to use the, the example of free will, let&#8217;s say the determinists are right. But I&#8217;ve never met a determinist who actually believes it. All the determinists I know have written books about determinism, and they&#8217;re very proud of their books. How could they be proud of their books? It was determined at the Big Bang that they were going to write that book, right? So this is what&#8217;s called a useful fiction, you know.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Okay, I don&#8217;t know, maybe I don&#8217;t have free will, but it sure feels like it. I&#8217;m just going to assume I do. It works for me. I assume you do too, because I treat you like you&#8217;re a volitional agent and I can influence you, and you&#8217;re making free choices, I should hold you accountable. We all do this, right? So maybe belief in God, for some people— not me— but, you know, it just works, you know, in that kind of pragmatic truth sense.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But if you&#8217;re really interested in the, in the search for truth, you could be more militant in your atheism, right? You could be like a Lawrence Krauss, or Sam Harris is a militant free will denier, although he does believe that artificial intelligence can have free will, interestingly. And so in my mind, a scientist can, can have permission to believe, maybe not at the same level as a devout deist or theist. Like, I talked to Stephen C. Meyer recently, and he invoked the claim that you made the other day, or the other minute, rather. Feels like a day when you&#8217;re talking to me, I&#8217;m sure. And that was that the universe is so big and it&#8217;s so vast, and there must be so many planets that have life, but yet we don&#8217;t find any with life, and therefore that&#8217;s a form of fine-tuning. tuning, which you address in the book. So maybe we could pivot there.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I have great difficulties with, with both sides of this debate— the fine-tuning argument, which I feel is, is overbroad, and, and also the denial of transcendent information that we do have about the physical universe and why, why that shouldn&#8217;t be, you know, used in a scientific framework. So let&#8217;s talk about fine-tuning. You talk about, you know, the trillions of planets, and, and you sort of use that as an argument, well, there must be life out there. I feel like that&#8217;s a large numbers gambler&#8217;s hypothesis fallacy. type argument because you don&#8217;t know what the multiplying factor is. The Drake equation should never have been— you know, if I could go back in time, I&#8217;d probably, you know, slap Drake around, you know, the late great Frank Drake, because it&#8217;s really not an equation at all. If, if my students hand in a paper and it&#8217;s got a number on it and an equation and no uncertainties on that, I fail them, Michael. Okay, that has no uncertainties, no systematics, no error bars.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s complete junk nonsense. It&#8217;s just like a cocktail napkin party trick. But people then publish that napkin And I was astonished recently to read a survey in Nature, Nature Astronomy, that asked basically, do professional astrobiologists believe that aliens exist in the universe? And I felt like they shouldn&#8217;t answer that question. I felt that question is not dignified for a scientist to answer. What do you make of this? This belief in science?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Yeah, I agree with that. You don&#8217;t believe in it. You just practice it. You don&#8217;t believe in science. It&#8217;s just something you use. It&#8217;s like, can you use rationality to prove rationality? Can you use induction to prove induction? That&#8217;s the wrong question. As for the fine-tuning, again, this, this whole thing in my book is like, here&#8217;s some big problems: free will and determinism, consciousness, the Big Bang, fine-tuning, why there&#8217;s something rather than nothing. Here&#8217;s a bunch of answers that people have offered.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Ultimately, I&#8217;m saying these are not— we&#8217;re not able to answer these questions with the tools we have at the moment. I&#8217;m not saying we&#8217;ll never be able to answer it. Hopefully we can. I offer some of my own. So whether I&#8217;m out of date with the M-theory or whatever, the point is, is that there&#8217;s a bunch of different answers that people have offered. People like you that are physicists and cosmologists, like, here&#8217;s what we think. When someone says, why is there something rather than nothing? I mean, don&#8217;t you have some answer other than nobody knows? Okay, maybe, uh, that&#8217;s fine. But, uh, okay, but the, the bigger picture here is that I&#8217;m trying to make is that if somebody says, I&#8217;m not sure what you believe, I don&#8217;t care, this is what I believe, it works for me, then I&#8217;m okay with that.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I mean, as you know, Iain Herschel famously found God and Jesus and the thing. And people like Richard Dawkins, who insist on literal— this is a literal truth claim, so you better be able to prove it or else. Now, if, if Iain or whoever says, I&#8217;m not saying you should believe, I&#8217;m just saying this changed my life. Okay. And that, that is the case for her. And that&#8217;s the case for a lot of people. You know, they have troubles in their life and believing in Jesus or Buddha or whatever makes a big difference. Okay.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I met Isaac Hayes once at a Thanksgiving dinner. He just happened to be the great Grammy Award-winning theme from Shaft. chef on South Park, big star, right? And he, you know, famously in the &#8217;90s was a Scientologist. So, you know, there he is at my best friend&#8217;s Thanksgiving dinner. He&#8217;s sitting right across from me. I&#8217;m like, oh my God, it&#8217;s the great Isaac Hayes. I think I&#8217;ll ask him, not in a confrontational way. I mean, it&#8217;s a Thanksgiving dinner.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Like, so what does Scientology do for you? And so on. And he&#8217;s just like, well, Michael, I, I lost everything I had. I, you know, I was at the pinnacle of rock and roll and the whole thing, and I lost it all, and the Scientologists saved life. Okay, you know, end of story. He wasn&#8217;t trying to convert me or tell me how great Scientology is and you should join too. Nothing like that. So I&#8217;m perfectly okay saying, all right, fine, I&#8217;m okay with that. And I&#8217;m not claiming it&#8217;s a make-believe, a phony, it&#8217;s a myth and a fake.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />There&#8217;s a different category of, you know, things we assume about the world that just work for us, and that&#8217;s okay, right? So that&#8217;s my point there. Okay, so let&#8217;s go back to the fine-tuning. What is your answer to Stephen Meyer&#8217;s the intelligent design theorists&#8217; argument about the fine-tuning. It looks like there&#8217;s a fine-tuner.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I had him on last week, and I&#8217;m in his new film. I&#8217;m highly paid. I got a Southwest ticket, you know, return trip. And I should say, I was the last up there in the Pacific Northwest to host Richard Dawkins. So, you know, people will criticize me for having him on, although I think I made the match, you know, like a yenta between you and Stephen. So I think I get some credit for for broaching that about 4 or 5 years ago with his book, The Return of the God Hypothesis. My role in the movie was to push back on some of the fine-tuning arguments.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />What&#8217;s this movie?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s basically a movie version of Return of the God Hypothesis. My, you know, counter to him is that there are few things that are as poorly tuned as the universe. And, and, and the, for example, the one that you bring up in the book is sort of cherry-picked. I mean, with due respect, but you&#8217;re not an astrophysicist, so I don&#8217;t expect you to know this. But people like Hawking would cherry-pick certain things like the acceleration or the expansion rate of the universe, and the— and then Martin Rees, who&#8217;s on the book as well, the amount of overdensities and underdensities needed to be just finely tuned. Apparently there&#8217;s a lot of— there&#8217;s a lot of hand-waving in those numbers. For example, right now we live in an era of what&#8217;s called the cosmological constant or dark energy, that the largest source of matter energy in the universe right now, which propels its expansion, is called dark energy. And now that&#8217;s just a name, and we have very— almost no information about it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We have less information about that than dark matter. We&#8217;ve actually detected dark matter. We know what dark matter is. We don&#8217;t know how much of it there is out there, but neutrinos, which you&#8217;ve heard of, are a form of dark matter. They&#8217;re exactly the perfect Hollywood version of what dark matter is. They weakly interact with the other forces. They don&#8217;t interact with light. They don&#8217;t give off light, and they have mass.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Perfect example of what dark matter could be. there&#8217;s just not enough of them to make up for the missing mass that closes the universe— makes the universe flat, rather. Anyway, but early on in the universe, uh, we were radiation dominated. In other words, the dominant source of energy in the universe was heat, light. And then the second phase of the universe was called matter domination. And then third generation is where we live now. It&#8217;s called the, the dark energy or cosmological constant, potentially. Right now they claim that if this were off by a tiny bit, we wouldn&#8217;t be here because the universe would accelerate way too fast.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But they always miss the fact that this is a real number. So real numbers can take on any value from, you know, and there&#8217;s an infinite number of real numbers between any 2 real numbers, right? So they could have taken on any value. And to say that this value is so finely tuned, and I told this to Steven, you&#8217;ll watch the podcast, comes out on Monday. And I told him this number is incredibly poorly tuned. It&#8217;s even worse tuned than my violin, which, you know, I don&#8217;t even play, Michael. You know, I play one instrument, Spotify. That&#8217;s the only instrument I can play. And so to tell me that that&#8217;s evidence of fine-tuning is just— it goes against his case.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Now, they&#8217;ll make up things, you know, that seem to be. But I do want to point out something that they do say and that he did say on the record on my podcast. At least he claimed that intelligent design has made falsifiable predictions, which turned out to be not false. In other words, verified in terms of what was called junk DNA. For a long time, they had this weak kind of claim that all DNA has meaning and matter, you know, kind of like every sperm is beautiful from The Life of Brian or whatever, right? All parts of DNA have some, some purpose, just like all galaxies have some purpose maybe, and, and the extravagant universe. And so they claim that this is, you know, something that could have been falsified but wasn&#8217;t. And I pointed out that&#8217;s actually more empirical support in a Bayesian factor scenario than string theory. And I think that makes a lot of people uncomfortable.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />They start shifting around. They don&#8217;t like that.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />But it&#8217;s true.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And you can check it on Grok or whatever. It&#8217;s very weak, Michael. It&#8217;s like saying, you know, they predicted the sky would not be blue, you know, something kind of semi-plausible but not— so it&#8217;s not a huge way, but string theory has zero. So when you multiply zero by, you know, divide it by any number, it&#8217;s gonna be zero, right?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So from this context, the fine-tuning is very weak. It is not at all, you know, convincing. The, you know, kind of alternative that there&#8217;s, you know, God wouldn&#8217;t make, as you bring up Sean Carroll in this book and the claim that, Well, why would God be so wasteful as to create, you know, 10 to the 24th planets in the observable universe? You know, if I were God, I wouldn&#8217;t do that. Which I always think it&#8217;s ironic when a militant atheist like Sean Carroll will say something is not the way that God would do it. I mean, is God like, what would Sean Carroll do? But I point it out, you know, 100 years, you know, science is provisional. And I do hope that, you know, we get things better and better. Like, I hope that my books are irrelevant in 100 years. Not that they&#8217;re still correct.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We still have no idea what&#8217;s going on. on. But I guess in the anomalies, there&#8217;ll always be these anomalies you mentioned, always be the 5% residue that you cannot eliminate. And I worry that as, as we pick the lower-hanging fruit, all that&#8217;s going to be left is anomalies. It&#8217;s like Brandolini&#8217;s principle. We won&#8217;t be able to refute all the BS. So, and, and sum up, the, the fine-tuning is not convincing at all. There are numbers that seem to be interestingly inhabiting a region of parameter space.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And, and my colleagues in inflationary cosmology will say, yes, of course, you know, what&#8217;s the anthropic principle at work? Thanks to the diverse, which I also don&#8217;t think is plausible. So I&#8217;m kind of in the middle of these different worlds. I think they&#8217;re, they&#8217;re interesting questions. I hope to settle them with data. Unlike a lot of people, like, I don&#8217;t think that the, you know, the Discovery Institute, you know, they do some sorts of research, but it&#8217;s always what&#8217;s called abduction. Not the alien abduction that you experienced, uh, 35, 40 years ago, but they&#8217;re starting with a conclusion and they&#8217;re reasoning back to the, to the facts that would cause it to be deductively true or abductively true. True. And I find that certainly not scientific.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You know, abduction is not a big, you know, apologetics, we call it, right? So I guess to you, what, what is the, what is the point? I mean, do you feel, do you feel, you know, depressed, or do you feel, you know, that these things will proliferate? For example, moon landing denial, you know, is, is, is rampant. People believe in the flat earth all around the globe. You know, I joke. What are their motivations? You studied psychology and you understand it better than anybody. So what motivates Bart Sibrel to keep claiming to Buzz Aldrin? Yeah, go ahead.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Well, let me come back to that for a second because that was a long discussion of the fine-tuning, which I&#8217;m glad to know. I took Martin Rees— since he&#8217;s Lord Martin Rees now— I took him at his word that these are the 6 numbers that are fine-tuned, and, and all the creationists and intelligent design people quote him. So I thought, all right, I got to use that. I should have sent it to you and said it&#8217;s not so fine-tuned. So I, again, on this this question of belief. I think most of us most of the time believe things that we can&#8217;t prove or we can&#8217;t explain. We know this from tons of research in cognitive psychology. I use the example in the book of asking undergraduates, do you accept Darwin&#8217;s theory of evolution? They almost always say, yeah, of course.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />But then you say, explain it, and they&#8217;re like, oh, um, well, the giraffe stretches its neck and the baby giraffes have longer necks, you know, inheritance of acquired characteristics. No, that isn&#8217;t Darwin&#8217;s theory at all. That&#8217;s completely wrong. Or, you know, do you support or reject NAFTA, you know, the North American Free Trade Agreement? Oh, I&#8217;m for it, or I&#8217;m against it. Okay, what is it? Who&#8217;s in it? I forget, right? You know, and so most of what we claim we know about the world, like, oh, I accept this, or I believe that, no one actually facts checks those things, right? So research on climate denial, turns out that the people who accept anthropogenic global warming don&#8217;t know anything more about it than the deniers. In other words, it&#8217;s a technical science. Most people don&#8217;t know much about it at all. I mean, I publish a magazine, we cover this story, people send me articles all the time.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I&#8217;m still completely a dunce cap when it comes to climate science. And, and so the average person goes, yeah, I, I believe it, or I don&#8217;t believe it. Really what they&#8217;re saying is, I accept the scientists, they usually get it right, and they tell me this is true, so yeah, I guess so. Or I, you know, I just don&#8217;t believe the scientific institutions anymore, they lied about this and that. And You know, they&#8217;re liberals and they&#8217;re doing this and that. I don&#8217;t believe them, right? So most of what people say, they, they have different motives. You know, it&#8217;s a tribal thing. It&#8217;s my, my party believes this, my religion believes this, or whatever.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />As for the individual, you know, the flat earthers, um, you know, there was that Netflix documentary Beyond the Curve. It was so good because you could really see the ego involvement with these guys. Like, I have this thing. and no one else believes it but me. And then there&#8217;s a few other people, and we have our little thing here, and I have this secret knowledge, and oh my God, I, I am in on this. It&#8217;s very much like the conspiracy theorists, you know. I know what actually happened on 9/11, or who really shot JFK, or who really killed Princess Diana. You know, it&#8217;s this whole thing of like, I have this— you know, it&#8217;s a very ego-gratifying thing.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />The flat earthers, you know, and all that— I mean, sorry, the no-mooners. Yeah, I think it&#8217;s that kind of thing, you know. I think it&#8217;s just a, a one-off thing. I don&#8217;t think this is a big popular conspiracy theory anymore. That will never go away because there&#8217;s always going to be people that, you know, want to own the knowledge. They&#8217;re very ego-embedded in it. Well, their identity is defined by it. This is the point of, you know, the North Star should be your— it should be truth, not that the Earth has to be flat because this is how I define myself, or whatever it it is.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />And so that&#8217;s never going to change. You know, this is, you know, the my-side bias, the hindsight bias, and the confirmation bias. These are all just built into human psychology. And that&#8217;s true for everybody, which is back to the start of our conversation, why we all have to work together to see what&#8217;s actually true. I have to point it to you. You can&#8217;t say, well, I know what&#8217;s true, but I can&#8217;t show you because it&#8217;s classified. I mean, you could say that, but, you know, at some point I gotta see It myself, or, you know, or the whole community of people saw it, right? So my analogy in the book, like with Bigfoot, you know, people say they, they saw Bigfoot or whatever. You know, if you want to name a new species in biology, you can&#8217;t show up at a conference and go and announce on the stage to your colleagues, I found a new species.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Oh, great. All right. Can we see it? Well, no, you see, I was out camping and it was 3 in the morning and I heard this rustle and I went out there and my camera didn&#8217;t really work. But, and I took this blurry photograph, and if you use your imagination, it sort of looks like a body. They&#8217;re going to go, you don&#8217;t get to name a new species after this, you know, incident. We, we need a type specimen. Show us the body, the Bigfoot. Show us the alien, or else there&#8217;s no reason to believe, right? It&#8217;s back to Sagan&#8217;s dragon, you know.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />But I feel the presence of the dragon. Oh, that&#8217;s nice. I feel like the dragon loves me, and, and, and believing in the dragon changed my life. life. Okay, fine, that&#8217;s good for you, but that doesn&#8217;t mean I should believe it because it didn&#8217;t change my life, right? So, you know, that&#8217;s the distinction I&#8217;m making.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />There&#8217;s also the corresponding problem with the fossil record, and you talk about paleontology a lot in the book as well. The same could sort of be said for like transitional forms. And yes, we— and, and, you know, certainly Meyer believes in, in, you know, microevolution. The question is macroevolution. How do you respond to that when there are these gaps and there will be forever bridgeable lacunae between what can be possibly known and what is going to be known? It&#8217;s a huge gap. Just because we can&#8217;t find a fossil, yeah, you could say that does, but for people that say yes, just like the biologist with the Bigfoot, you know, why should we believe, why should we have more evidentiary weight towards evolution that ascribes these, you know, transitional forms and universal common ancestors that we can&#8217;t find?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I call this the fossil Right? So here&#8217;s a fossil, and here&#8217;s a fossil. I need a transitional fossil in the gap here. This is a big gap. All right, here, I&#8217;ll use a banana because that&#8217;s a good one. So here is a transitional fossil between these two fossils, and the creationist goes, &#8220;Now there&#8217;s two gaps in the fossil record,&#8221; right? Give me a transitional fossil there, and then there, and then there. Right? So in other words, it&#8217;s non-falsifiable claim. There&#8217;s there&#8217;s no amount of evidence I&#8217;m going to present you that&#8217;s going to get you to go, &#8220;Okay, I see there&#8217;s a trans.&#8221; All right, so that&#8217;s the general principle there. And more specifically, these are inferential sciences.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />These are events that already happened. So historically— so I have that chapter on history, you know, we have to use the comparative method and come at it from multiple lines of inquiry. How do you know the dinosaurs went extinct 65 million years ago? How do you know the horses came from this transitional fossil? Whatever. This isn&#8217;t like there&#8217;s that one fossil and that proves it. No, it&#8217;s a whole line of inquiry, a bunch of different pieces of evidence and so on that all add up to this conclusion. They may be wrong, but if everyone in— almost everyone in the field who knows a lot about this goes, yeah, I think you got it right, it&#8217;s probably right. Not necessarily. They could all be wrong.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />This has happened in the past historically. But usually when there&#8217;s a general consensus among scientists, you know, that&#8217;s, that&#8217;s mostly probably right. You know, the, oh, they laughed at, uh, Galileo or whatever. Yeah, but you know, most of the colleagues of Galileo, they, they were wrong. So they should have been laughed at, maybe. I don&#8217;t know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s what I get. I get the, uh, well, Professor Keating, you know, they laughed at Einstein, and I&#8217;m not good in math, but if you help me out, I&#8217;ll share the Nobel Prize. Exactly, the actual Nobel Prize money. But, um, as we close, I was touched by the opening, uh, dedication to Daniel Dennett, who I have to say was, uh, very, you know, meaningful to me, that I, uh, I think I did the last interview he ever did 2 weeks before he died. I don&#8217;t know what that says about, about him, that he chose to spend, you know, 2 hours with Keating before he died. But, but I was very honored to, to experience that time with him, and, and he obviously is a giant. I want to, instead of asking, you know, why did you dedicate it to him, or what did he get right about consciousness, what are your thoughts about his perspective on consciousness that maybe the field resists still?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />Well, in general, I dedicated the book to him because I, first of all, he was a friend, and second of all, uh, he&#8217;s one of the few philosophers I know that was deeply, uh, ensconced in science, and he really cares about science and evidence and arguments and so Not just thought experiments, right? Because one of the things that bothers me about philosophers is they just do thought experiments. And I always ask, you know, did you look out the window? You know, we&#8217;re living in a simulation. I have this thought experiment that proves there&#8217;s a, you know, 51% Bayesian probability we&#8217;re living in a simulation. Really? Did you look out the window to see if it looks like we&#8217;re living in a simulation? Do you see any buffering when you&#8217;re looking out at the world, right? Anyway, so Dan, you know, he didn&#8217;t fall for that. He liked to follow the lines carefully. And again, his, you know, the particular quote I gave from him about, you know, truth was the bottom line for him and not ideology or some political or even a philosophical method, which I appreciated about him. As for consciousness, yeah, well, both free will and consciousness on the— so he wrote several books on each, you know. On the, um, his book on free— wrote several books on free will, but Freedom Evolves was his book in which he made the argument degrees of freedom.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />So rather than an on or off switch, you know, there&#8217;s just like a spectrum of, of degrees of freedom that an organism can have depending on their evolutionary history and so on and so forth. So I really like that concept there. And I, you know, he was a compatibilist, so I often cite him because I&#8217;m not a philosopher. So I go, I&#8217;m a compatibilist. Well, you&#8217;re not a philosopher. Well, Dan Dennett was a compatibilist and he&#8217;s one of the great philosophers. It&#8217;s kind of an argument from authority, I guess. And then same thing with consciousness, you know, it&#8217;s a really hard problem I think that the, the question itself— what&#8217;s it like to be somebody else or something else— is not answerable.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I think it&#8217;s the wrong question. It&#8217;s a conceptually— it&#8217;s not a hard problem, it&#8217;s an impossible problem. It&#8217;s not answerable the way it&#8217;s asked. What&#8217;s it like to be something? How would I know? I mean, as far as all I know, Brian, you&#8217;re not a sentient being. You&#8217;re just a robot, right? That&#8217;s the philosophical—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Plasmoid, Michael. Haven&#8217;t you heard?</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />I just rewatched that Star Trek: Next Generation episode, The Measure Measure of a Man, you know, his data person, right? They&#8217;re going to take him apart and make 1,000 of them. And Picard says, you know, prove to me that I&#8217;m conscious, to the other guy. You know, it&#8217;s like, well, I can&#8217;t. It&#8217;s like, exactly, but I know you are. It&#8217;s like, how do you know I am, right? Anyway, it&#8217;s a crazy—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Prove you have a brain. I haven&#8217;t seen it, have you? Yeah, so how do you know it exists? Well, I&#8217;ve got one right here. Just, uh, outsourced my, my third lobe. Well, Michael Shermer, I don&#8217;t think Daniel, uh, is reading the book from heaven. I don&#8217;t He believed in heaven. I&#8217;m glad that you quoted him, and I&#8217;m glad that this book exists, and I thank you for the role that you play. You know, I mean, you&#8217;re very courageous. You&#8217;re fearless.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />This book has as many arguments, you know, if you sum them up just by pure evidentiary presentation rather, there&#8217;s an equal number of arguments for God as against God, for example, or for almost any subject, but obviously they&#8217;re not given equal weight, And the toolkit of science is something we must as a society preserve because we can disagree on facts, you know, and even findings. I mean, my sensors, you know, you hear something completely different than I do. I don&#8217;t know one bit about your qualia, as Daniel would say. You know, I have no idea if you see the color red, it&#8217;s exactly the way I see the color red. I know for a fact we don&#8217;t see it the same way. All these reasons, I think, conspire to at least allow us to suspect that the laws of science science and the toolkit of science and epistemology in that realm are at least our best hope, you know, to get closer and closer to truth. So Michael Shermer, Dr. Michael Shermer, thanks for joining us on the podcast.</p><p>Michael Shermer:<br />You&#8217;re welcome.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Michael Shermer just bet $1,000 we will never find the aliens. That&#8217;s epistemology with skin in the game. The burden of proof is on the claimant, not the skeptic. If that changes how you think about UFO disclosure, Hit subscribe and turn on notifications as well. Drop a comment too. What physical evidence would actually move you to belief? And if you want the opposing view, the case for taking UAPs deadly seriously, I linked Avi Loeb right here. Thanks for watching, and click on the special link that I made just for this episode, bryancaden.com/theory.</p>								</div>
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		<title>400K Subscribers Asked Me Anything. The Answers Got Weird.</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/400k/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 06:32:37 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[400K Subscribers Asked Me Anything. The Answers Got Weird. Transcript Brian Keating:Okay, welcome to the Into the Impossible podcast, a very special episode featuring my favorite guest, me, Brian Keating, celebrating 400,000 of you multiversal minds that traverse the cosmos from consciousness to astrobiology, there and back. When I started the podcast, I assumed that maybe a few dozen nerds would somehow watch, but we built a community that hundreds of thousands of people are listening to or watching. Over 500K when you include the audio versions, which I hope that you will also enjoy. And whether we&#8217;re talking about inflation or artificial intelligence or aliens or black holes, I think that you&#8217;re getting something here that you get nowhere else, and that&#8217;s access to the greatest minds in the universe, some deep dives. I never pull punches, I never hold back, and I just love, uh, the fact that I get to do this all. And most of what I provide to you is kind of a hobby. I don&#8217;t do this for the money. I certainly don&#8217;t make money on the podcast. Brian Keating:And it&#8217;s just been such a delight. So you&#8217;ll hear this in the second half. I&#8217;m going to answer some questions that were dropped on YouTube, and you can join my YouTube channel, Dr. Brian Keating, or my secondary YouTube channel where I do these deep dive explainers into the hottest topics in physics and astronomy, cosmology, artificial intelligence. Those are solo episodes. I do some debunking episodes now called Keating&#8217;s Razors, and I also do a lot of very fascinating as I said, solo deep dives on things ranging from negative mass neutrinos all the way up to the solution to the Fermi paradox that I am thinking about working on myself in my other spare time for my side hustle. I need a side hustle. So that other channel is called Keating Experiments. Brian Keating:You can find that link below as well. Brian Keating:Okay, let&#8217;s get on to some of the questions. Brian Keating:So let&#8217;s go. 400K, Austin Howell, thank you so much. I&#8217;m so glad you&#8217;re part of the multiverse of minds. And then next question, number 2. Has time ticked at the same pace since the early universe? Brian Keating:No. Brian Keating:So this is subtle. In general relativity, time can depend on gravity. Gravity depends on matter, and matter in motion also can affect the spacetime metric. So the universe is much hotter and denser than it was in the early universe than it was now. So an atom in the early universe wouldn&#8217;t actually notice this because clocks tick locally in the same rate that they do for us in the locally low gravitational environment. Now it is true clocks do tick slightly slower for us nearer to the center of the Earth than for an astronaut orbiting on the International Space Station. But locally, that&#8217;s a small effect. And so locally, Einstein realized, and as part of his equivalence principle, that you could basically make a freely falling reference frame where anything would perceive the same spacetime dynamics as if there were no gravity. Brian Keating:So flat spacetime is the local approximation, just like a flat Earth is a local approximation for any infinitesimal patch of a highly curved surface, whether it&#8217;s positively curved or negatively curved, whether that curvature is coming, you know, kind of built into the universe or from large gravitational fields or distortions. So an atom in the early universe wouldn&#8217;t notice anything. And redshift is not caused by time itself changing, it&#8217;s caused by the spatial expansion of the universe that stretches wavelength of light and these waves of light as they travel. So this would not change things. So there&#8217;s a distinction between gravitational time dilation which is the slowing and changing of clock rates, which is a true effect that&#8217;s also responsible for corrections made to the GPS satellite that you and I use to get around in our— using our phones or our cars&#8217; GPS. So that&#8217;s different from cosmological redshift, which stretches light because the universe is expanding. So they&#8217;re related, but they&#8217;re not identical. Brian Keating:Great question. Brian Keating:Is every location the center of the Big Bang? Yes, this is a very good way to think about it. If every part of the universe is the center of the universe, then no part is the center of the universe. Brian Keating:It&#8217;s like, where&#8217;s the center of the surface of the Earth? Brian Keating:There is no center of the surface of the Earth, so all points are equivalent. So the Big Bang was not an explosion into space, it was the expansion of space itself. Brian Keating:So we often use these analogies. Brian Keating:None of them are perfect because we&#8217;re, you know, 3-dimensional beings trying to visualize a 4-dimensional universe, making 2-dimensional analogies that I&#8217;m about to make, which is a classic one of the balloon that has dots, you printed on it in the shape of galaxies, if you like. And if you blow that balloon up, it&#8217;s expanding into the room, so that makes it a little bit less good of an analogy. But every dot would see every other dot moving away, and I can insert here a visualization that I made on redshift and the wavelength distortion that occurs due to the expanding of spacetime. And each galaxy sees every other galaxy moving away from it. In 3 dimensions, you could have a raisin bread that has raisins inside it, you&#8217;re cooking it, it&#8217;s expanding, every raisin is moving away from every other raisin, so each raisin could say, Hey, I&#8217;m the center of the bread. But of course, if an infinite raisin bread, they&#8217;re not— it&#8217;s not possible for any of them to be the center. They&#8217;re all the center, therefore none of them are the center. So the observable universe does appear to be homogeneous. Brian Keating:That means it&#8217;s sort of the same]]></description>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">400K Subscribers Asked Me Anything. The Answers Got Weird.</h2>				</div>
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									<h2><strong>Transcript</strong></h2><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay, welcome to the Into the Impossible podcast, a very special episode featuring my favorite guest, me, Brian Keating, celebrating 400,000 of you multiversal minds that traverse the cosmos from consciousness to astrobiology, there and back. When I started the podcast, I assumed that maybe a few dozen nerds would somehow watch, but we built a community that hundreds of thousands of people are listening to or watching. Over 500K when you include the audio versions, which I hope that you will also enjoy. And whether we&#8217;re talking about inflation or artificial intelligence or aliens or black holes, I think that you&#8217;re getting something here that you get nowhere else, and that&#8217;s access to the greatest minds in the universe, some deep dives. I never pull punches, I never hold back, and I just love, uh, the fact that I get to do this all. And most of what I provide to you is kind of a hobby. I don&#8217;t do this for the money. I certainly don&#8217;t make money on the podcast.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And it&#8217;s just been such a delight. So you&#8217;ll hear this in the second half. I&#8217;m going to answer some questions that were dropped on YouTube, and you can join my YouTube channel, Dr. Brian Keating, or my secondary YouTube channel where I do these deep dive explainers into the hottest topics in physics and astronomy, cosmology, artificial intelligence. Those are solo episodes. I do some debunking episodes now called Keating&#8217;s Razors, and I also do a lot of very fascinating as I said, solo deep dives on things ranging from negative mass neutrinos all the way up to the solution to the Fermi paradox that I am thinking about working on myself in my other spare time for my side hustle. I need a side hustle. So that other channel is called Keating Experiments.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You can find that link below as well.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay, let&#8217;s get on to some of the questions.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So let&#8217;s go. 400K, Austin Howell, thank you so much. I&#8217;m so glad you&#8217;re part of the multiverse of minds. And then next question, number 2. Has time ticked at the same pace since the early universe?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />No.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So this is subtle. In general relativity, time can depend on gravity. Gravity depends on matter, and matter in motion also can affect the spacetime metric. So the universe is much hotter and denser than it was in the early universe than it was now. So an atom in the early universe wouldn&#8217;t actually notice this because clocks tick locally in the same rate that they do for us in the locally low gravitational environment. Now it is true clocks do tick slightly slower for us nearer to the center of the Earth than for an astronaut orbiting on the International Space Station. But locally, that&#8217;s a small effect. And so locally, Einstein realized, and as part of his equivalence principle, that you could basically make a freely falling reference frame where anything would perceive the same spacetime dynamics as if there were no gravity.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So flat spacetime is the local approximation, just like a flat Earth is a local approximation for any infinitesimal patch of a highly curved surface, whether it&#8217;s positively curved or negatively curved, whether that curvature is coming, you know, kind of built into the universe or from large gravitational fields or distortions. So an atom in the early universe wouldn&#8217;t notice anything. And redshift is not caused by time itself changing, it&#8217;s caused by the spatial expansion of the universe that stretches wavelength of light and these waves of light as they travel. So this would not change things. So there&#8217;s a distinction between gravitational time dilation which is the slowing and changing of clock rates, which is a true effect that&#8217;s also responsible for corrections made to the GPS satellite that you and I use to get around in our— using our phones or our cars&#8217; GPS. So that&#8217;s different from cosmological redshift, which stretches light because the universe is expanding. So they&#8217;re related, but they&#8217;re not identical.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Great question.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Is every location the center of the Big Bang? Yes, this is a very good way to think about it. If every part of the universe is the center of the universe, then no part is the center of the universe.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s like, where&#8217;s the center of the surface of the Earth?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />There is no center of the surface of the Earth, so all points are equivalent. So the Big Bang was not an explosion into space, it was the expansion of space itself.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So we often use these analogies.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />None of them are perfect because we&#8217;re, you know, 3-dimensional beings trying to visualize a 4-dimensional universe, making 2-dimensional analogies that I&#8217;m about to make, which is a classic one of the balloon that has dots, you printed on it in the shape of galaxies, if you like. And if you blow that balloon up, it&#8217;s expanding into the room, so that makes it a little bit less good of an analogy. But every dot would see every other dot moving away, and I can insert here a visualization that I made on redshift and the wavelength distortion that occurs due to the expanding of spacetime. And each galaxy sees every other galaxy moving away from it. In 3 dimensions, you could have a raisin bread that has raisins inside it, you&#8217;re cooking it, it&#8217;s expanding, every raisin is moving away from every other raisin, so each raisin could say, Hey, I&#8217;m the center of the bread. But of course, if an infinite raisin bread, they&#8217;re not— it&#8217;s not possible for any of them to be the center. They&#8217;re all the center, therefore none of them are the center. So the observable universe does appear to be homogeneous.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That means it&#8217;s sort of the same in every place in the universe, and isotropic, and then it looks the same on large enough scales. So every observer can legitimately consider themselves to be the center of the observable expansion. And these are things we talk about in the cosmic office hours once a month, which I really look forward to. I hear incredible theories, and it&#8217;s a much cheaper alternative alternative, you know, to, uh, to the $1,000 for the first hour and then $2,000, then $4,000, $8,000, etc., that I charge for private consultations. I&#8217;m more than willing to do that. That money goes to a local food bank at UCSD&#8217;s campus. It&#8217;s a 501, uh, charity. There&#8217;s a couple of them here on campus that I will donate that money to.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And we&#8217;ve had many people take me up on that level. But this is sort of the level of, of the conversation that we have on the, on the public office hour, shall we say, or the group office hour that we hold every month. So do join if you&#8217;re interested. It&#8217;s $19.99 a month. It&#8217;s cheap compared to the thousands of dollars that other people will pay, and that my students pay in tuition, quite frankly. And a lot of them don&#8217;t come to office hours. So, um, so, uh, hopefully you will, uh, you will adjudicate yourself in such a way that you can make it to an office hour of some kind or another, or you can wait to the next 500K milestone when I&#8217;ll answer more of these questions.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Is consciousness This is asked by Innerfield5481. Is consciousness a space like spacetime? I personally don&#8217;t know enough about this question to answer it. I&#8217;d say I&#8217;ve talked to the leading lights in consciousness, from the late, great Daniel Dennett— I was his last interview that he ever did— uh, to Sam Harris, to Robert Sapolsky. So implementation of a physical system occurs while it&#8217;s embedded in spacetime. It is not spacetime itself. There&#8217;s some pre-existing spacetime. So The question I think you might be asking is whether or not consciousness is fundamental or if it&#8217;s emergent based on collective phenomena, it&#8217;s computational, maybe it&#8217;s quantum. But the hard problem of consciousness, the qualia, what is it like to be something else, we really have no good answer to that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And I always often find that it&#8217;s as challenging to me as if we didn&#8217;t know what an exoplanet was. We have definitions of it. Yes, we changed the definition of a planet within our solar system not too long ago in my lifetime. And so things could change and maybe we could learn stuff, but it may be unknowable. I mean, there are people that think consciousness is outside the realm of consciousness. And so you need some level of consciousness, as Einstein said, that&#8217;s above the level of consciousness in order to understand consciousness. Maybe that will be AI. Maybe AI will be able to look at us outside of our brain.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Will JWST ever directly observe a Population III star? Now, Population III stars, I should tell you, are the first generation of stars we call Population III. And so they&#8217;re extremely rare, they&#8217;re extremely hard to visualize, they&#8217;re long gone by now. They were providing the seeds that then became the seeds to make the stars that made the stars like our sun, which is Population I, which is to say that they exploded. They were made of just primordial hydrogen and helium from the Big Bang. They then created and synthesized the heavier elements all the way up to lead and, and, and, and even iron and so forth to make these iron-nickel meteorites that I give away if you have a .edu email address, briankeating.com/edu, and you live in the US. So these are extremely massive, and like rock stars, the more massive, the brighter you are, the shorter you live. So they formed very early on, and they may detect, you know, them in clusters or so forth where the light would have this trace fingerprint of only having hydrogen and helium in their spectrum. And that would be an incredible accomplishment, as would be the observation of a single pristine Population III star.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That might be one of the greatest discoveries in astronomy.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And if any telescope could do it, it is something like Webb.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Thanks for that question. Okay, Cameron Williams asks about LLMs, Lean proofs, formal verification, and fundamental physics. Now, this is one of my most recent and most exciting intersections that I&#8217;m involved with. You know, how do we go from mathematicians proving theorems and physicists building models and computers to check these things to actually where they&#8217;re generating it? So I came up with something called the Einstein test, which would be to take an LLM, lobotomize it, and give it only knowledge pre-1910 or something, and see if it can come up with general relativity like we just talked about. Can it derive curved spacetime, flat locally, Einstein equivalence principle, all these things that Einstein did so magnificently? So the payoff would be enormous. So can we even verify proofs? When I talked to Terence Tao in September, he&#8217;s gonna hopefully come on again for his new book in the fall, he talked about verification being a good thing for AI.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Discovering unknown symmetries perhaps, proving problems, solving problems that didn&#8217;t have proofs maybe, but they weren&#8217;t at the level of theorems like Erdős problems are not really at the level of a theorem like Pythagorean theorem or Fermat&#8217;s Last Theorem, but were proved by or conjectured by Erdős in the &#8217;40s, &#8217;50s, &#8217;60s and lay dormant until recently when dozens of them are being solved by LLMs.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So the physics that I do has to be answerable to nature. And so I&#8217;ve been trying to do this with a student and with colleagues.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I did find, unfortunately, in some sense, maybe fortunately, I don&#8217;t know, it saved me the time, that we were not the first to really think about this. Maybe I was the first to think about it, but I didn&#8217;t implement it in time. And there are teams of groups that basically do implementations of pre-1911 LLMs that are not contaminated with the knowledge that even popular science gives to them, like the multiverse and Spider-Verse and—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />for movies and stuff. So, for me, it&#8217;s— it was a little bit disappointing to find that people have thought about this and actually done it. Maybe, again, I might have thought of it first a couple of years ago as that was kind of the key to artificial general intelligence that I would think would rise to the occasion. And thanks to Roman Yampolsky, who did tell me that this had been done, he thought it was a good idea, but he found some examples, which maybe saves me time to work on my other projects like Simon&#8217;s Observatory. So there are a lot of experiments that will be coming up. The question is, you know, first, can it verify existing proofs? Second, can it reproduce novel things only based on a pre, you know, corpus knowledge before these discoveries were popularized by human meat computers, natural intelligences? And so I&#8217;m not sure that will happen. First, I think it&#8217;ll happen in math, and then I think it could happen in physics. Okay, says, what happens to particles in the far future?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It depends on the type of particles.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />If you&#8217;re talking about stable particles like photons or electrons, they may survive forever. Protons may decay, we&#8217;re not sure. We know that their lifetime is at least, you know, at least a multiple of the age of the universe just from statistical measurements, may even be something like 10 to the 30th years. If protons do not decay, then white dwarfs and neutron stars, which will be the end product of most stars including our Sun, that they&#8217;ll last for incredibly long times and that matter will only take on rare sort of interactions as the Universe expands and gets more and more dilute. We won&#8217;t know if this will happen, of course, for a very long time, so keep paying your taxes out there. And this dovetails nicely into Trader Timmy, who asked my thoughts on Roger Penrose&#8217;s conformal cyclic cosmology. Very few people fully understand it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;d say that it&#8217;s one of the most creative ideas ever proposed.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s beautiful, it&#8217;s elegant, it&#8217;s avoiding the singularity that has a quantum effect that we can&#8217;t currently understand using our theory of gravity and our theory of quantum mechanics. It looks in a very serious way at what the far future of gravity and quantum physics would be like, but it&#8217;s made a couple of whoppers, you know, that really just don&#8217;t bear out. When the BICEP2, my favorite experiment, you know, from the Simons Observatory, came out with our data, he, Roger, said that actually we did detect B-modes, but they were from, you know, these Hawking points that they had these ring-like structures that came from black holes that are the only things that really make it through the conformal rescaling. That&#8217;s sort of like the new bang. It also requires the universe to lose information about different mass scales and transition the properties of things like the Higgs boson, which we really don&#8217;t have any evidence for.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So there&#8217;s zero evidence for it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />There is actually, counterfactual evidence for his claim that BICEP2&#8217;s result came from these Hawking points, and that was that our data were contaminated with cosmic— with not cosmic dust, but with galactic dust.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So it&#8217;s been falsified. Now, that&#8217;s a virtue of the theory, is that it can be falsified.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />If we were to measure a B-mode background, that would be suggestive of inflation, not the conformal cyclic cosmology that avoids a singularity beginning. Is expansion synchronistic or Coincidental. Hmm, I&#8217;m not sure what that means. The expansion seems to be a global property of spacetime, something that, you know, we witness, we are participating in, not like some galaxy decides to go on to start participating in the Hubble flow. So at large scales, we see spacetime evolving according to Einstein&#8217;s equation. So it seems more synchronistic, you know, and that it could be that I&#8217;m not understanding it unless you mean maybe coincidental. Yeah, I mean, I&#8217;m not sure what you mean by that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />something.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Why doesn&#8217;t the Big Bang expand backwards? Now that could be true in sort of the Big Crunch axis. There are models where the universe will actually expand backwards, and meaning a backwards expansion is a contraction. And so you have to be careful looking at diagrams in Wikipedia where these are plotting spacetime, uh, you know, kind of in a 2-dimensional spacetime, but we can&#8217;t really even project the 3rd and 4th dimension of spacetime So the forward direction is actually representing the passage of time. Now, if the universe does have this evolving dark energy, eventually it could effectively collapse. The pressure support for the universe would then become negative. The universe would collapse on itself. So it&#8217;s not a physical direction, a reversal of the arrow of time, but it would effectively lead to a big, a big, Big Bang in reverse. Mainly could be a Big Crunch or could be a bounce, which some cosmologists favor.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay, Bill H. asks, what do I think about the Dark Forest Theory? I think it&#8217;s brilliant science fiction. We had Cixin Liu here at UCSD, The Three-Body Problem, 5 years ago maybe. As science though, it&#8217;s still pretty speculative. The theory is that everybody&#8217;s hiding and everyone&#8217;s fearing from everybody else and that first contact is known to represent annihilation. There&#8217;s a lot of this in human history where, you know, discovered, you know, tribes, you know, all around the world were later, set upon by great misfortune by the contact with a more technological life, not necessarily more intelligent life. I mean, it&#8217;s interesting, they&#8217;ve done— they looked at, you know, why didn&#8217;t, you know, Aborigines in Australia colonize Europe instead of the other way around? And they&#8217;ve actually looked and actually certain things did happen. It had nothing to do with their genetics or inferior or superior because when Europeans tried to colonize Greenland, they failed ultimately as well.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So, whereas the natives were able to to persist there. So I think it&#8217;s an interesting thing to think about. Well, is it always bad? Does it always suggest superior intelligence? No, it doesn&#8217;t necessarily. So we don&#8217;t know if civilizations are aggressive inherently. We only have one example of life in the universe that&#8217;s conscious and technological, and that&#8217;s us. So they could be indifferent to us. It&#8217;s a fascinating hypothesis, but it&#8217;s not really a prediction. So, okay.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We want more real science and less Loeb and Weinstein. Okay. Look, they&#8217;re my friends. I&#8217;m going to talk to them. I have intellectual diversity. I talk to people that believe in intelligent design. I talk to militant atheists, Sam Harris, Lawrence Krauss, Richard Dawkins hosted me. I hosted him in Vancouver overnight a year or two ago.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And I&#8217;ll talk to people like Stephen Meyer because I like the intellectual challenge of wrestling with ideas and seeing where they hold up and they comport with scientific evidence. Sometimes that&#8217;ll be with Nobel laureates. Sometimes it&#8217;ll be with people I strongly disagree with. I mean, Sam Harris basically won&#8217;t come back on the show because he and I disagreed about the, you know, kind of definition of slavery. And he has a very kind of limited capacity to argue, but it doesn&#8217;t prevent him from having confidence in his position, even though he knows very little about what these actual prescriptions, parameters were for slavery. And I&#8217;m not defending slavery, God forbid. Uh, but I, I am saying that there was a very different— big difference between the slavery that was practiced there and the slavery, uh, in the Bible and the slavery in, say, Southern America.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So anyway, uh, I will talk to people that, that are religious Christians.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;ll talk to militant atheists. I love to expose ideas to scrutiny and then evidence. I&#8217;m an experimentalist, not like Sean Carroll, not like Sam Harris, not like Lawrence Krauss or Brian Greene.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m a—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m an experimentalist. list, or like Eric Weinstein. But sometimes I will have my friends on. Sorry, I have friends. I, I enjoy them. And, um, I haven&#8217;t had Eric on in over a year. Um, you know, he&#8217;s, he&#8217;s less active than Avi Loeb, who&#8217;s very active and does a lot of interesting things, and I find him a fascinating person. Uh, next question, I guess, is a part 2 from Max Brooks, who asked, if conformal cyclic cosmology, Penrose&#8217;s argument, is true, how old is the universe? Well, in conformal cyclic cosmology, every aeon, which are these epochs that we&#8217;re currently in, one of which we would call our current observable universe or the current Big Bang phase of our universe, gives rise to the next.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So you have this cyclical universe, and the conformal portion— that&#8217;s the cyclical C— the conformal is that angles are preserved and kind of Uh, it&#8217;s possible to preserve geometric effects, so there&#8217;s rulers and compasses and they adhere to the ordinary behavior. A triangle has 180 degrees, so if you have 3 black holes, which are the only things that really can go through each aeon subsequently, that each one of them in the triangle would have some angle, and locally that would be flat at 180 degrees between them. And whatever angle it is, doesn&#8217;t matter if it&#8217;s flat or not, would then transform into an identical triplet of black holes, which would also have the same properties on the other side of the next aeon. So there could be a first cycle, but there doesn&#8217;t have to be. So each Big Bang is a transition from one aeon to another, not an origin, and that would be very, you know, transformative of our understanding of cosmic history. But it wouldn&#8217;t invalidate the physics that we know about, but it would sort of explain mathematically Possibly physically, although again, we have no evidence for it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And it has the virtue that it could be falsified, proven wrong.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />If we detect primordial gravitational waves, those can only come from inflation, as Sir Roger Penrose admits himself. So it could be falsified, unlike inflation, which can&#8217;t be falsified. In other words, if we never see any gravitational waves with the Simons Observatory, it doesn&#8217;t mean that inflation didn&#8217;t take place. And if we do see them, it doesn&#8217;t mean that inflation took place also. It just means that stuff far the most plausible explanation. Some call it the smoking gun. But you can&#8217;t prove a physical, uh, fact about the universe. You can only motivate it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And you can certainly disprove physical phenomena and rule them out, but you can&#8217;t necessarily prove them. Okay, next question. What&#8217;s the most interesting philosophical questions that I grapple with? Okay, things that keep me awake at night. I think number one, why are we here? Why is there something? Why isn&#8217;t there nothing? Why is it possible to understand language and humans, and why are we seemingly the only entities that have consciousness? What is consciousness? We don&#8217;t know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Are we alone?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What&#8217;s the nature of the beginning of time? Did time have a beginning? Is the universe eternal? Sort of, people think there&#8217;s one Big Bang, but there&#8217;s actually many Big Bangs. Not that there&#8217;s many Big Bangs.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />theories or that we mean something different. We talk about the Big Bang Theory versus some other cosmological model. We talk about Big Bang nucleosynthesis, the origin of matter. So there was actually an origin of, you know, energy that had to have taken place from preceding either non-energy or non-energetic phase. In other words, truly ex nihilo means there wasn&#8217;t even energy. Right now, our cosmology breaks down. We have physical evidence in the form of, you know, water or hydrogen Ratio of deuterium to protium in the ordinary water that we have in the universe that has to be primordial. It&#8217;s very close to the primordial ratio and their abundances.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And that tells us that the universe had to be a fusion reactor at extremely early times. And in fact, it&#8217;s the only epoch at which we— it&#8217;s the only evidence we have from the radiation-dominated epoch. We live in the cosmological constant-dominated epoch or dark energy epoch.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And before that, when life formed on Earth, the Earth formed during the matter-dominated epoch, you know, 4 billion years ago. And before that, the universe was mostly— has been mostly matter-dominated. But the different Big Bangs could be the origin of energy, and then from energy to mass, massive matter, then from massive matter to inert, you know, chemistry, and then from inert chemistry to organic chemistry, organic chemistry to primordial life, from primordial life to consciousness, from consciousness, you know, all these things came from something that wasn&#8217;t conscious became conscious. Something that wasn&#8217;t living turned into something that was living. Something that wasn&#8217;t energy turned into energy. Something that wasn&#8217;t matter turned into matter. These are all different types of Big Bangs, ex nihilo or from nothing type creation events. And those to me are the most interesting philosophical questions that we could ever hope to answer.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But as I often say, you know, Mother Nature is this infinite army of overwhelming power and force. And the only benefit we have, perhaps the only hope we have against Mother Nature, is that she&#8217;s always in retreat. So you can never win science, you can never defeat science. Wheeler said, as the, you know, island of knowledge increases, the boundary of ignorance increases too, but the ratio increases as the radius goes. So you actually take on more knowledge versus more boundary or more ignorance. Okay, Thomas Sousa. Guest I&#8217;ve never had on, or I&#8217;ve tried to get on and have declined? I really haven&#8217;t had too many that I&#8217;ve really wanted to talk to but couldn&#8217;t. The only one that I wanted to talk to and plausibly could talk to a few years back was Andrea Ghez, who won the Nobel Prize.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />She works at UCLA. It&#8217;s part of the UC system. She came to give a colloquium here. I tried to interview her. I&#8217;ve helped her, you know, try to get in touch with the Simons Foundation once upon a time. before she won the Nobel Prize, and I thought that would curry some favor. But I think she&#8217;s tired and she thinks I&#8217;m going to ask her, you know, do you— what advice do you have for my daughter? And, you know, it&#8217;d be— but I&#8217;ve never asked that. I&#8217;ve had on, you know, 2 female Nobel Prize winners, Katalin Karikó, and also I&#8217;ve had on Donna Strickland.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And these are, you know, you can go back and look at the interviews, and at no point did I dwell on being a female or not, and I just want to talk about science with her. So she&#8217;s probably the only one. Um, I talked to Elon Musk, you know, I don&#8217;t think I could get him on for an ordinary episode, um, but I think I have a lot to say with him, uh, you know, for longer than the 15 minutes I talked to him for a couple years ago. Let&#8217;s see, dream guests. Um, I&#8217;ve had, you know, so many great guests, and the ones that I can&#8217;t get are unfortunately not alive. And fortunately, I got some of them on the podcast, like the late, great Dan Dennett. I was the last interview he ever gave on the podcast. Jim Simons, my mentor, friend, father figure to me, he was on.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Freeman Dyson was my first ever guest on.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You know, there are very few people that I, you know, I don&#8217;t really have like idol worship in my genes.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;ve talked to 20, it&#8217;ll be 26 Nobel Prize winners pretty soon. Just finished my 25th and scheduling my 26th. They&#8217;re ordinary people. You know, they put on their pants one leg at a time. And, uh, and I just, you know, feel so fortunate that you guys have all come along on the ride and the power, the size of the audience. Yeah, maybe it helps to get, you know, if I wanted to have on, you know, Barack Obama, uh, on the podcast or, you know, uh, I don&#8217;t know if I actually do, but let&#8217;s just say I wanted to. It certainly helps to have a bigger audience. So please do share the Into the Impossible podcast with your friends and neighbors and people that are curious about all things from AI to, uh, to astronomy, to zoology and back.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So I think there&#8217;s no other place where you go as deep intellectually. And also I give you the opportunity to ask questions of my guests, especially those of you who are channel members that really do support. And I don&#8217;t make— I make hardly 99 cents a month before YouTube takes their 20% tax. Like, you know, 70 cents a month. I&#8217;m not, you know, putting food on the table, but it does send me a powerful signal that people are willing to pay, you know. And it&#8217;s— you value something more that you pay for it. Now you pay attention All of you. And I have a huge cohort of people that are ride or die and listen to the entirety of every single episode.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I just love that. And I&#8217;ll continue to make content for everybody. And, uh, but the bigger the audience certainly will help get more folks on the podcast. So I&#8217;d say, you know, maybe the few people I, you know, would still want to talk to that I haven&#8217;t had a chance to and don&#8217;t really know how to get in touch with them, although they seem to do a lot of podcasts with people that have bigger audiences, I don&#8217;t think that people do a better job necessarily than I do, especially in the technical realm. Uh, Geoffrey Hinton, Demis Hassabis, just, you know, again, the Nobel Prize. But also that I&#8217;ve thought about things that I know Demis is very, um, you know, taken with as well, like the Einstein test, which is, you know, can an AI trained only on information and only accessible to information before 1911 come up with GR or, you know, quantum mechanics?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And Tried to implement that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I was scooped by, as I said earlier, scooped by another set of researchers, although they didn&#8217;t apply the test as I want to do and extend it. I&#8217;m not going to say what my application is because there&#8217;s still some hope that I can publish a novel paper about AI intelligence and artificial general intelligence, really, which is what interests me the most. But Jensen Huang, I think, is an interesting guy. I&#8217;d like to ask him about lock-in and whether or not GPUs and LLMs really, you know, represent the limit of what&#8217;s possible. Yes, there are universal Turing machines and they can do anything that we could hope to. And Roman Yampolsky told me that, you know, they&#8217;re uncontrollable and unpredictable and there&#8217;s no hope for us and we should have paused 10 years ago. I want to get, you know, his take on that. And what are the physical limits to growth? We live on an actual planet.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m an actual astrophysicist. You know, Dwarkesh Patel and Lex Fridman are not. And I&#8217;d love to talk to them from the physics perspective. Other people out there, Certainly, you know, there&#8217;s a lot. I have an episode with Sean Ryan coming out that was quite good.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Um, you know, I don&#8217;t really have this desire to go back on shows.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;ve been on, you know, pretty much every one of the big podcasts. Um, I do like it when the host is, is as well-read as I try to be. I&#8217;ve read every single book, and the books behind me are just like the square root of the number of books I have in my, in my library. I read every single author&#8217;s book. Um, and it is hard when an author— sorry, when a guest doesn&#8217;t have a book. When an author doesn&#8217;t have a book, uh, it&#8217;s actually easier to interview people that have books. So, um, you know, Terry Tao will be a much better interview the second time, I think, when I get to him. So I hope to go up to UCLA again and sit down with him and interview him again.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Um, yeah, other than that, I don&#8217;t have—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />they&#8217;re not like some, you know, white whales that I really want to get to and I haven&#8217;t had a chance to get to. I love when, you know, people that have big ideas come out with, with great books. I&#8217;m trying to do more in-person interviews than Riverside interviews, um, just because I think the vibes are much more, um, highly curated, and, and it just allows for deeper interpersonal, um, you know, uh, gestures to be perceived. And it&#8217;s just a much more, uh, intimate— and for me, it&#8217;s more fun, and the guests are more vulnerable, and when we get get a lot more real-time feedback. And I just, you know, I like the energy of being in person. I&#8217;m a people person, you know, what can I say? Okay, let&#8217;s go next. Has physics become too expensive? Yeah, absolutely. Uh, that&#8217;s a byproduct of the low-hanging fruit being picked.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You know, the first, you know, cyclotron ever invented was this big, you know, it was 20-centimeter circumference. And now, you know, CERN is what, 10,000 times bigger? So there&#8217;s no denying it has gotten incredibly expensive and much bigger. And the big science is important. It gives us LIGO, the James Webb Space Telescope, the Simons Observatories, one of the most expensive, if not the most expensive, privately funded, predominantly private funded, UC San Diego and Penn and Princeton and Chicago and Berkeley and all of our partner institutions, Japan and the UK. put in tremendous resources, but, you know, $80, $90 million, $100 million plus has come from the Simons Foundation, not from the National Science Foundation. So that&#8217;s been, uh, incredibly rewarding. But, um, but yes, it&#8217;s not really sustainable. It&#8217;ll probably be— could be the last ground-based CMB experiment, you know, for the foreseeable future.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />There might be spaceborne experiments like LightBird, which you&#8217;ll hear more about on my other channel. Don&#8217;t forget to subscribe, Keating Experiments. So a lot of it comes down to bureaucracy. It&#8217;s hard to get these things through. They take forever, you know, panels and get reviewed, and then they have budgets that they go through, and then they have to get launched or they have to get built. And we have 450 people in the Simons Observatory, and, you know, we started out with 40, 50, you know, 10 institutions. Now we&#8217;ve got 50, and we&#8217;re literally all around the world. So I think those, you know, kind of big experiments have a place.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I think small experiments have a place. place. I&#8217;m building a small experiment, you know, for my optical astronomy pursuits to look for the violation of Einstein&#8217;s, you know, bedrock was called Lorentz invariance, that the speed of light, for example, doesn&#8217;t depend on color. That&#8217;s a very cheap experiment. It&#8217;s a 20-inch telescope that we had here in UCSD and put it in an observatory, and we have some, you know, high-speed detectors and sensitive detectors on it and filters. And, you know, we hope to do some interesting polarimetry with it, which is is another unexplored area. Very simple sources, supernovae, you know, novae, and what are called eclipsing binary stars.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And if we can do that, you know, it&#8217;s low risk, high reward.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />My philosophy, and I tell this to my students as well, always try to do something high risk and low risk at the same time so that you&#8217;ll have high reward and you&#8217;ll have guaranteed reward. In other words, if you&#8217;re successful in the high risk, like the Simons Observatory is is a perfect example. We&#8217;re trying to measure inflationary-generated primordial gravitational wave-generated B-modes, which if true herald the inflationary epoch&#8217;s existence. And the inflationary epoch&#8217;s existence heralds the existence of the multiverse to most people, including Guth and Linde I&#8217;ve had on. I should have said Guth would be a great person that I haven&#8217;t had on. He and I are co-authors. We had co-advised a former postdoc. And, um, you know, he gets my emails, but he hasn&#8217;t replied to them.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So I have tried to get him on. Um, it&#8217;s harder to get him on than the 27 Nobel Prize winners that I&#8217;ve had on. So the Simons Observatory will detect potentially inflation, and according to him and Linde, who I have had on, uh, that would herald the multiverse. So we&#8217;d no longer be living in a universe according to them. We&#8217;d have overwhelming circumstantial evidence that we live in a multiverse. So what could be a bigger you know, kind of gambit than that. However, we can also detect things like the presence of dark matter, gravitational lensing, the presence of neutrinos, the only form of dark matter that we know to exist, to detect the cosmic neutrino background and make limits and measurements of it. That&#8217;s a guaranteed measure.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We&#8217;re going to do that. We&#8217;re going to measure the masses of neutrinos with terrestrial experiments and like the Juno experiment in China and other ones. giving information as well. This will be a huge thing. We&#8217;ll determine the number of relativistic species. We&#8217;ll measure the existence or lack thereof and set limits on cosmic birefringence, which would mean Lorentz invariance is violated. These are incredible things. Some of them are guaranteed.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We could measure Planet 9 if it exists. They&#8217;re incredible. And so it&#8217;s low risk in that sense that we&#8217;re guaranteed to get a lot of science out. We have this large aperture telescope. that&#8217;s 6 meters across, that has incredibly high resolution. And then we have the coarse-grained resolution, wide aperture refracting cameras that measure the inflationary B-mode signal.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s in the unknown.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We don&#8217;t know if it&#8217;s gonna be there. If it&#8217;s there, it&#8217;s the highest risk, highest reward. And if it&#8217;s not, we still are gonna measure with the other instruments the presence or absence of neutrino masses and Planet 9, all these other great things. So it&#8217;s an incredibly exciting time to understand the galaxy, understand extra, you know, galaxies outside of our own and clusters of galaxies and gravitational lensing and really refine the cosmological model, measure the Hubble constant. These are spectacular accomplishments. So that&#8217;s why I like to do it. You know, we need both, you know, kind of sailboats and aircraft carriers in our arsenal. Okay, What&#8217;s the most credible evidence for extraterrestrial life? So I&#8217;ve been going off on this a lot lately, including conversations with people like Avi Loeb and Michael Michael Shermer, you know, kind of on opposite sides of the fence, um, and Beatriz Villarroel.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And, you know, there really isn&#8217;t evidence right now. I mean, there&#8217;s, there&#8217;s data that we collect that is suggestive, but it&#8217;s no— by no means, you know, uh, probative. And so there was a survey done in Nature Astronomy by Vickers et al., and I just learned about this thanks to having a conversation with, uh, with a, um—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Hmm.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />you know, Christian apologist effectively, Hugh Ross, who brought the survey to my attention. It was done in Nature Astronomy. It&#8217;s not like, you know, Discovery Institute did the survey.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And in it, he—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />they described that, you know, something like 88% of astronomers or astrobiologists surveyed believe that there is the existence of extraterrestrial life.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And I said, that&#8217;s—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I shouldn&#8217;t dignify that question with an answer.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I don&#8217;t believe, you know, is there evidence for it? So, um, there is in fact maybe slight evidence against life in the universe being, you know, abundant. And the large numbers hypothesis is a hell of a drug. You know, people think, well, there&#8217;s 10 to the 24th planets. Let&#8217;s just say Adam Frank, you know, Professor Adam Frank, who I&#8217;ve had on, is right. And yeah, there have been on multiple, you know, planets around multiple star, uh, stars and multiple galaxies and multiple clusters of galaxies going back multiple billions of years. I agree with all those numbers, you know, there could be a factor of 10 either way, but it&#8217;s still, you know, a trillion trillion, of order a trillion trillion bodies in the observable universe over the history of the universe, which is important because if life existed, you know, 8 billion years ago, good luck finding it, right? It&#8217;s gone now because the average stellar system is not going to live anywhere near that time, especially going back in time when Population III that we heard about earlier was dominant and those stars lasted 50 million years. So good luck trying to find, you know, an exoplanet with life on it in another galaxy, you know, 13 billion years ago. So there are people that say the rapid emergence of life on Earth is evidence, but that&#8217;s not really evidence.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s evidence of how it instantiated itself on Earth itself as one example. Organic chemistry, we find organic chemistry throughout the universe. You know, we find all sorts of elements and we find all sorts of combinations and carbon is a a very abundant element in the universe, in our galaxy, and so on. So to say that it&#8217;s there, it&#8217;s almost, you know, as Hugh Ross tries to use it as an example of fine-tuning, that actually there could be life everywhere in the universe, but we only find life on Earth, therefore God wanted it to be so. So I think you get into this delicate balance if you&#8217;re saying that life is so abundant. Now, I don&#8217;t believe that&#8217;s a valid argument either. I use my canonical example of being in Antarctica twice in my life. the South Pole, you know, which is 1/7 of the Earth&#8217;s continents, right? But it doesn&#8217;t have 1/7 of the Earth&#8217;s mass, uh, or 1/7 of the Earth&#8217;s population.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It has almost zero population right now in the middle of winter. It has almost zero, about maybe 200 people on the entire continent, and the other 8.3 billion are elsewhere, right? Including people that are living, you know, under the ocean, and there&#8217;s a couple people living in space, right? So there&#8217;s, you know, not more than, uh, 1 or 2 orders of magnitude more people living in Antarctica than living on the space station. But that— so, and there&#8217;s an awful lot of space in the universe. Do we expect to find life on other, you know, floating around in space in just random locations? So the amount of space in the universe is a fallacious argument. It&#8217;s an example of the large numbers hypothesis. So I don&#8217;t believe that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And I don&#8217;t think you should say belief.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You know, I say, do we have evidence? And the last thing which I&#8217;ve used, and I have yet to hear a cogent, you know, reply or falsification of my hypothesis that Earth and Mars shared a common history when Mars had liquid water running on it, and we were exchanging meteorites, like these meteorites that you&#8217;ll get if you go to briankeating.com/edu and you have a .edu email address, or if you go to briankeating.com/yt and you don&#8217;t have one. I do give them away. You have to live in the US because the Postal Service won&#8217;t mail these things outside of the US, at least not for like $50, and I&#8217;m sorry, I cannot afford that. But I will send them to you no matter what if you have a us.edu email address. So the fact that the Earth, Mars, Moon, all these celestial bodies, but in particular Mars, which has running water, is in the habitable zone, and has, you know, all sorts of the requirements that&#8217;s believed to be supportive of life, including carbon dioxide, you know, in its atmosphere. So the fact that we don&#8217;t see life on Mars or any evidence of life on Mars, that&#8217;s not proof. Again, we can&#8217;t look everywhere. We&#8217;ve only scratched less than the barest, you know, a few centimeters of its surface throughout a couple of landing spots.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And so that&#8217;s not proof, but there&#8217;s certainly not megacities there and dolphins swimming around with iPhones. So the fact that we could have had life and that we could have been seeded by the cosmos using panspermic logic, the fact that Mars wasn&#8217;t seeded and that we are exchanged— like, we&#8217;re like a stockroom that&#8217;s sending life to these other planets. I mean, Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />There is, there are going to be fossils found on Mars someday, probably.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s not out of the realm of possibility, not from fossilized life that used to live on Mars, but from fossils that lived on Earth that got blasted in meteorite impacts to Mars and to the Moon. Now, maybe there&#8217;ll be none, you know, we won&#8217;t find them, but it&#8217;s not physically impossible, therefore it has some actual probability. Certainly, I wouldn&#8217;t say there&#8217;s no possibility of life throughout the universe. I would just say that the evidence for intelligent life or, you know, sophisticated advanced life is very, very scant, if not zero. And so multiplying zero by 10 to the 24th still gives you zero. And that&#8217;s the large numbers gambler&#8217;s hypothesis fallacy. So I&#8217;ve seen evidence that, you know, we&#8217;re going to hear about things that have life, like signatures, biosignatures. We&#8217;ve heard that many, many times.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m not talking about disclosure. I&#8217;m talking about like phosphine on Venus and other, The existence of life on Earth, you know, for now remains our only documented evidence for life in the universe. That doesn&#8217;t mean there couldn&#8217;t be life elsewhere in the universe. We do seed, as I said, other planets. We have biological organisms that can survive the harshest of space. And as you go up the sophistication ladder to bipedal human-like objects, I think that that&#8217;s, uh, you know, gets even less plausible. But again, I will never say impossible. After all, the name of the podcast is Into the Impossible.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay, next question. Am I the experimental version of the Witten family cover-up? Hmm. Now I&#8217;ve studied string theory a little bit, enough to make fun of it and poke fun at it and say things like there&#8217;s more evidence for intelligent design having falsifiable hypotheses than string theory. Um, you know, very, very, very firmly tongue planted in cheek. But, um, but I don&#8217;t know about the cover-up. I, I know that Lewis Whitten, you know, was involved in gravity research and that he, um, you know, he did host this conference in the, in the &#8217;50s at Chapel Hill. Um, uh, but there are a lot of, you know, kind of conspiracies that are spread about The Whitten family and anti-gravity, and there&#8217;s memos from Australia in 1971, I&#8217;m told, that talk about these things. But there&#8217;s nothing documented.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />There&#8217;s no transactions or the government, you know, there&#8217;s a check and it&#8217;s written to, you know, John Wheeler. And then, you know, they&#8217;re making anti-gravity propulsion systems that allow for, you know, TARDIS-like aircraft or spacecraft to fly and be bigger on the inside than they are outside. uh, interdimensional beings and things like that. There&#8217;s no evidence for any of that as far as I know. Now, one cool thing is that UNC Chapel Hill is also the, um, the, uh, academic home of Warren Robinett. Now, Warren Robinett, who the heck is that? So he developed, uh, this Atari game that I used to play in the 1980s on my Atari 2600 called Adventure. And Adventure was, uh, crafted by him. And it was, you&#8217;re going around this kingdom and you&#8217;re fighting dragons and you have a sword.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But there was also this magical room that you could go to with a tiny pixel, a single pixel that you&#8217;d carry around. And it&#8217;s considered the first Easter egg. And if you brought this thing and you went to the secret chamber that my cousin David taught me about, you could go and then drop it off and you&#8217;d get this magical screen that would talk about how Warren Robinett was this like kind of master simulator in the simulation hypothesis. So he was there. UNC Chapel Hill. Is that a coincidence or not? You know, kind of the first evidence for the simulation hypothesis validity came from the very place where the UNC Chapel Hill Gravitometrics Conference was held in the &#8217;50s. So what&#8217;s the biggest lesson that I take from 400,000 video subscribers, probably another 100,000+ on audio alone? It&#8217;s not that, you know, I&#8217;ve learned something, which I have, about UFOs or cosmology or Nobel Prizes or AI life or consciousness is that the curiosity of the human mind is unmatched and unbeaten. There&#8217;s nothing like it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />There&#8217;s nothing like these 3-pound supercomputers that we carry on our heads to think of things. We are universal explainers, according to my friend David Deutsch, right? So these are incredible times to be alive. The innovations of AI are both threatening, terrifying, and extremely exhilarating to me. To think that I have this army of unpaid graduate students that are working around the clock and agent swarms that I dispatch to investigate, to research, to do, to help me, you know, think about the different topics I want to cover in different explainer videos, to doing deep research on like what&#8217;s the birthday and the place of some guest I&#8217;m going to have on. You know, these are things that I couldn&#8217;t have done before. I don&#8217;t have the team for it. I just don&#8217;t have the team or the time. And so to me, it&#8217;s that there&#8217;s something unique about this podcast.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s, it&#8217;s resonating with, with hundreds of thousands of other minds. I mean, I looked up the number of likes that I&#8217;ve gotten, so that&#8217;s not even, you know, a metric that you can really interpret other than to say somebody liked the video. It&#8217;s like 1 or 2 million people have liked my videos. I mean, they&#8217;ve been watched for literally 2— 1— between 1 and 2 million hours just in the last couple couple of years. Um, 60 to 70 million views of all my videos, and this is just on the Into the Impossible, you know, Dr. Brian Keating, and my new channel Keating Experiments. So please go over there, Professor Keating Experiments. But this is just, you know, blows me away, you know, millions of hours of time, you know, thousands of, of human lifetimes.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s incredible. And that you spend it with me, and I love spending it with you. And without you, I don&#8217;t really do this anymore. I&#8217;m not just going broadcast into the ether, as much fun as that might be to hear myself talk. I can hear myself talk for free. I don&#8217;t have to get all, you know, my hair done and, and get, uh, you know, shave and get these fancy cameras and editors and all the other stuff that I need to do because I want to do it. I feel like I owe it to everybody who&#8217;s a scientist, is paid for by the public. Our jobs depend on you.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I want to give back to you for free. If you want to get closer, more intimate, I offer things like these office hours that you can be a member of, and that, that&#8217;s a very intimate small club. And Patreon, and on YouTube membership, which is different than subscribing— there&#8217;s a difference. And on Substack, I have a Substack that I also do these things on. But it&#8217;s been an incredible ride, and I keep— I&#8217;ll keep going. I have no reason to stop. I really enjoy what I do and get to— who the people I get to talk to. And again, the more of you there are, it does carry some weight, you know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I think To get, you know, maybe Alan Guth is waiting for the 500K mark. I don&#8217;t know, but, uh, uh, who knows? Maybe he is, maybe he&#8217;s not. But the point is, the more people that get to experience these once-in-a-lifetime conversations— I mean, literally, for Daniel Dennett, it was the last podcast he ever did, and I think I did a great job with it. He certainly was extremely warm and, and, and, and expressed a lot of gratitude for that conversation.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He very sick.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He had this huge bandage on his head. It wasn&#8217;t related to his— the cause of his death, but, um, you know, he took the time, and it was the last— the last hours of his life. And those are some of the million hours that you guys have gotten to watch and spend time with me and with him and with others. And I hope that you&#8217;ll continue to do so and spread the channel love. I do think we are, you know, some say criminally undersubscribed. Uh, 69% of you, I&#8217;m told, do not subscribe. I don&#8217;t know why. You watch regularly and And YouTube has this amazing engine for tracking metrics.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And we know you&#8217;re watching, but you&#8217;re not subscribing. I don&#8217;t know why. Subscriptions are the only way publicly that you can sort of gauge a relative channel. You know, it&#8217;s kind of like the H-index of a channel in some ways, although views are more important. If somebody said, you know, I&#8217;ll watch every single video or I&#8217;ll subscribe and watch no videos, obviously I&#8217;m going to take the non-subscriber over the subscriber.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />whatever. But it does carry some weight, so please do consider it. And please accept my deepest gratitude for being on this mission, this multiverse of minds that is just in this consonant, resonant phenomenon. And I don&#8217;t think we have any real, you know, plans to change anything. I&#8217;m not gonna, you know, move into AI, you know, slop and content. And I&#8217;m not going to keep reading books, talking to geniuses, poking back, pushing back where necessary, being respectful, having live conversations. Yeah. Getting the biggest names in science and some of the smaller names too.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />People that you may have never heard of. I did a conversation not too long ago with a professor at Princeton, Tom Griffiths, who studies AI and wrote a book about computational science and the math behind computational cognitive science. He&#8217;s a cognitive scientist and a computer scientist. The Laws of Thought, and it&#8217;s one of my most popular. It&#8217;s almost got 200,000 views in a couple of months. You know, I didn&#8217;t know about Tom. I mean, yes, he&#8217;s a famous, you know, Princeton professor, brilliant guy, but until I read his book, I didn&#8217;t know about him. And now I do, and now you do.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And, you know, just having people like that, or, you know, smaller or bigger guests, um, you know, this huge roster of, of episodes that are recorded but not yet released, and you&#8217;re going to be blown away by them. Um, and I just have so much fun being with it. Now, I also am going to now segue into the second half of the live stream I just did this week with Avi Loeb, and that had kind of a Q&amp;A session about my thoughts on aliens and UFOs and, and people like David Grusch and Congresswoman Luna and other things. Has a little bit of that and also has a little bit of kind of reflections on 400,000 viewers and a little bit of inside baseball on podcasting. I, I, you know, encourage you to listen to it if you&#8217;re interested in getting to know kind of what makes me tick. Um, it&#8217;s a little self-indulgent, like all these things are, but, you know, if you don&#8217;t celebrate the small things and the big things, you know, what else is there, you know, in life but, you know, compounding misery? So for me, I hope you&#8217;ll enjoy this, uh, the second half of this show, where I kind of just talk to the camera after Avi left, and I talk about my philosophy. I&#8217;m not afraid to I like to push back, even on friends. I know you guys, you know, some of you don&#8217;t want to see Avi Loeb, some of you don&#8217;t want to see Eric Weinstein.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Fine. I mean, you don&#8217;t have to listen to those episodes. You know, we live in a free internet. You can listen or not. So choose your own adventure. I hope you&#8217;ll forgive the indulgence, self-indulgence of the second part of this episode, but it was fun to kind of stream of consciousness. You get to see what a scientist thinks about when they&#8217;re not thinking about science. And now I&#8217;m going to I&#8217;m gonna go back to science.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m gonna finish up those papers before I get scooped again. And again, just, um, 400,000, you know, shining points of light. May there be many more, and, uh, and an infinite amount of gratitude. Okay, now on to part 2. Stay tuned.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />All right, well, you heard, uh, the inimitable Avi Loeb and And he&#8217;s always such a fascinating guest to have on. I&#8217;ve had him on many times, but I wanna talk to you now because he&#8217;s left the building. You know, he&#8217;s dropped his briefcase, he&#8217;s no longer here. But I have a lot of thoughts. I have a lot of thoughts. I have a lot of feels from this interview that I just did. You know, thinking about the preparation I did for it involving multiple guests that are coming up this week, including Beatriz Villarreal is coming on Wednesday, Michael Shermer. who&#8217;s coming on Thursday, all involved in some form or another what Avi&#8217;s doing.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So I really, you know, it&#8217;s hard because when I do these podcasts, when I do these interviews, especially live, there&#8217;s a million things I want to ask. I want you guys to ask. I want you guys to be engaged. I don&#8217;t think any other podcast from, you know, the competitors do these kind of live streams. Kirk Jaimungal, a friend of mine, you know, past guest. I&#8217;ve been on his show. Sean Carroll, certainly. I don&#8217;t think David Kipping, my friend and respected colleague, And so I really do feel like this is a unique opportunity that I give in the comments, but also for you guys to ask questions.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And there were literally hundreds of comments, so I did my best. And I always get criticized, why are you looking away? So I bought a teleprompter and now I can put the questions here so it looks like I am indeed doing as I&#8217;m doing, paying attention. But I need to be candid with you because I think if I lose my trust with you, I think I lose everything.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And I want to be honest, you know, I&#8217;ve pushed back on Avi since the wee days of when he first came on the podcast in 2020 to talk about his first book, which is mentioned here, Extraterrestrial. And I said, Avi, you know, you believe that, that this object, Oumuamua, comes from an alien civilization, potentially. Maybe it&#8217;s not technology itself, but it&#8217;s leftover from technology. It could be a garbage barge. It could be a solar sail. I said, Avi, wouldn&#8217;t it be great if you knew some billionaires that could spend money to fly a probe and catch up to Oumuamua. And of course, that was tongue-in-cheek, but I was pushing back on him because he did know people like that, Yuri Milner, and he still does. The Breakthrough Starshot enterprise is funded by Avi&#8217;s friends and colleagues, Yuri Milner and others.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And he&#8217;s at Harvard, arguably this hedge fund with a $50 billion endowment that still charges tuition that outpaces inflation. I always forget to criticize Avi for that. and rejects more people, you know, than I got rejected, you know, when I was on the dating market. They serve 1,500 people, you know, in the freshman class. It&#8217;s pretty small. It&#8217;s like a Chipotle does every day on a decent day. So it&#8217;s exclusive. He&#8217;s in this multi-billion-dollar orbit.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He brags about billionaires coming on his— to his doorstep. And I don&#8217;t fault them because he is incredible at what he does. And he&#8217;s rigorous and he&#8217;s a real scientist. That&#8217;s where I just had a video about criticizing Michio Kaku&#8217;s most recent appearance on Diary of a CEO, which got 4 or 5 million views, and I&#8217;m trying to debunk all these claims, and I ran out of like patience after 15 claims in a 40-minute video. Avi&#8217;s not like Michio. Avi&#8217;s, you know, working in the trenches, writing papers. I don&#8217;t know when the last paper Michio Kaku wrote was. I bet it wasn&#8217;t recently.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And there are a lot of great— you know, Neil deGrasse Tyson hasn&#8217;t written a paper, you know, since the Reagan administration, as far as I can tell. But, you know, they do something important and they have a role and they also have their own, you know, kind of financial incentives because they&#8217;re all writing books. And so, look, I write books. I don&#8217;t do it for the money. The amount of money I get from my books is near below minimum wage, I think, even here in California. So believe me, I&#8217;m not doing it for the money. You know, maybe these other folks are. Maybe Avi is.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I don&#8217;t know. Maybe David Grusch is. Who knows? I&#8217;m not even speculating. They&#8217;re involved in movies. That&#8217;s never interested me whatsoever. I&#8217;m interested in finding out information while I still can, while I still have influence and ability to influence young minds and get into the passion of science. You know, I wouldn&#8217;t become a public university professor if I was really interested in the money, okay? So let&#8217;s put that to rest. But I told Avi Backman when Oumuamua was in the news, you know, it&#8217;s not that far outside of our solar system, it&#8217;s your last chance to catch up to it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And he said, well, you know, there&#8217;ll be many more coming through. Now there&#8217;s been 2 more that have come through. And one of them was known to be a comet, Borisov. And the second one now, or third one now, seems very likely, even according to its greatest champion, Avi Loeb, to be also more likely to be extraterrestrial, you know, natural material than extraterrestrial technological materials. As he just said, he lowered the confidence on his coined Loeb scale. I wouldn&#8217;t have called it the Loeb scale, although I do have the Keating Medal. I do give the Keating Medal to people that came in. And just recently, I gave my first Keating Medal for impossible imagination to a man who won the Nobel Prize.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So we&#8217;re kind of squaring off which one is bigger. And my Keating medal is bigger than the Nobel Prize. Anyway, you&#8217;ll see that interview soon.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But here&#8217;s where I land.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Avi is doing rigorous version, the most rigorous version I think that you could do. He wants the instruments. He doesn&#8217;t want the feels. He doesn&#8217;t want the testimony, the interdimensional beings. I think Luna is really doing something that I think is self-destructive for her cause. She&#8217;s criticized Kirkpatrick again. I had him on. I know most of you hate Kirkpatrick.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I think that&#8217;s nonsense. Don&#8217;t you want to see me ask these people questions? I didn&#8217;t let him get away with stuff either. I&#8217;m going to push these people and I&#8217;m going to ask questions because this is the most important thing I think that humanity may ever discover, including what I do, which I think is pretty damn important. Studying galaxies, studying the cosmos, studying the Big Bang, dark matter, dark energy, Lorentz invariance, all these things. These are incredibly important things. But if we found extraterrestrial intelligence, sentient plasmoids, and interdimensional beings, come on, that would be, you know, I&#8217;d stop doing what I&#8217;m doing and join up with Avi. But so why haven&#8217;t I done that? Because I haven&#8217;t seen the sensors. I have— haven&#8217;t seen the instruments.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I haven&#8217;t seen the data. I&#8217;ve talked to the people that have talked to the people, and that includes people like Ryan Graves, um, who have, you know, claimed to witness things, uh, to see, to talk to people that he has— he hasn&#8217;t claimed to talk to the people, he&#8217;s talked to people. They work in a squadron. And but he, he as is often claimed, that he saw these things directly. But he said candidly on my interview with him, maybe, maybe things have changed, but, but that he didn&#8217;t witness it, but his colleagues and squadron mates did. And that was fine because you can report on it. Grusch is doing the same thing. He hasn&#8217;t seen these things.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He&#8217;s saying that people that he knows have seen these things. Okay, so where does this sit in the evidentiary scale of science? It&#8217;s very low, right? It&#8217;s very low. Whereas data, hard evidence, you know, people joke about, well, you believe in dark matter. Yeah, I believe in dark matter because we&#8217;ve already detected dark matter. We&#8217;ve captured dark matter, we interact with dark matter, we know how to build sensors that do it, and we know how to measure it throughout cosmic history. They&#8217;re called neutrinos. Okay, so people say, oh, dark matter, you&#8217;re just an idiot, you&#8217;re a fantasy, you believe things too. No, I don&#8217;t believe in it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We have evidence for dark matter. Neutrinos fit every definition of dark matter. They&#8217;re massive, they interact weakly, there&#8217;s— and it just happens to be not enough of them to make the universe flat. in terms of its curvature, and so there must be other non-neutrino forms of dark matter. But neutrinos make up every bit of dark matter that any theorist would ever want. They just don&#8217;t make up enough to do— well, that&#8217;s like saying, well, hydrogen only makes up 74% of the universe&#8217;s baryonic mass density, so does that mean that baryons don&#8217;t exist?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s a stupid argument, okay?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So we&#8217;ve detected dark matter, we have evidence for dark matter. Now, we haven&#8217;t detected dark energy in the same way we&#8217;ve detected dark matter, Because we don&#8217;t have ability to bottle it up. But when we hear these things, this is what drives me crazy. I&#8217;m an experimentalist. Avi&#8217;s a theorist. Most of the people he&#8217;s talking to are theorists. Gary Nolan is not an experimental astrophysicist. He&#8217;s not dealing with the same types of sensors.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He&#8217;s dealing with experiences that he had that he talked about on my show when we did a co-livestream together with Avi Loeb a couple of years back. So you can look that up. Now, what&#8217;s important to me? I pushed him on Luna because he has access to her. She is obviously a fangirl of Avi, as are many people. He&#8217;s very charming. But we need a whistleblower who has, you know, the power and is not afraid to use it, not to go after people like Kirkpatrick who was serving his country as best as he could. And he got a ton of crap for it. You know, I think after having spoken to him, he would never do it again.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You know, death threats and, and all sorts of things going after his family. It&#8217;s horrible what happens to people like that. And that&#8217;s why I caution Navi, are you sure you want to do this? Because it&#8217;s inevitable you&#8217;re going to piss people off and you&#8217;re going to go up against the Pentagon that has PSYOP.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />information, disinformation, malinformation campaigns against everybody. You think that we don&#8217;t spy on the Chinese or the Israelis or, you know, we spy on everybody. And thank God, you know, for that. As Jack Nicholson said, you want me on that wall, you need me on that wall. Now, I don&#8217;t like the fact that my relatives were tortured. You know, I feel like that&#8217;s bad, but they&#8217;re not babies. They&#8217;re some of the strongest men, you know, women that I know. And they do things for volunteer.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />They didn&#8217;t get recruited with a bag over their head and get waterboarded, you know, for grins and giggles.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That wasn&#8217;t what happened. No, that was part of their search, evade, and rescue, uh, uh, training that they had in the military. And thank God that they did. Uh, and I hope that they never have to use that, but they, they&#8217;re hardened against it should they ever have to use that. Okay, so let&#8217;s, let&#8217;s look at this. Where is Luna coming down? She has the power to subpoena people.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />She has full immunity.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Um, I&#8217;ve also wondered, and maybe I&#8217;m just, you know, foolish about how the government works— again, I don&#8217;t want anything bad to happen to anybody. I don&#8217;t want Grusch to be attacked. I don&#8217;t want him to you know, go to jail for revealing classified information. But we have freedom of the press. We, you know, there could be leaks to the media and so forth in the press. Now, if this is stuff that&#8217;s happening, you know, it&#8217;s hard to imagine how, uh, you know, how sentient plasmoids— telling us that there are sentient plasmoids and bipedal, you know, organisms, which is very shocking to me. I mean, that&#8217;s sort of the most shocking thing I&#8217;ve ever heard in this. Not the sentient plasmoids and the interdimensional beings, that doesn&#8217;t really kind of rankle me as much as the bipedal, because bipedalism is almost the least likely.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I mean, look around your house. You might see 1 or 2 bipedal objects. You might see an equal number of— we have an equal number of bipedal objects around the Keating household, right? They&#8217;re called pets. Um, they&#8217;re quadri— sorry, quadrupedal as bipedal. Um, you know, and so this is a shocking revelation if true. And, and again, I just pulled up the quote and, and from the article from the testimony on July— on June 9th. Um, so we have to say that this is, that this is, is, is among the most important things. So why isn&#8217;t there protection? Why, why isn&#8217;t Luna saying, here&#8217;s what I found out, go to the people, skip Grusch altogether, and Grusch, and go straight to the source? He can tell them who to talk to, what he saw when he saw these objects, and it can talk— she can talk to Lue Elizondo.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He&#8217;s already revealed all this stuff. He&#8217;s on tour. He talks about this stuff with Jeremy Corbell. Why can&#8217;t she talk to them, get the names, and then she&#8217;s not going to be subpoenaed. She&#8217;s not going to be arrested. She&#8217;s leading the damn committee. She&#8217;s one of the most powerful people on the planet. I don&#8217;t understand it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And again, I, you know, I&#8217;d love to talk to her. I&#8217;ve asked Avi to introduce me to her. I think maybe one Jewish astrophysicist is enough for her, you know, to kind of make her sick of talking to me and scientists like me. But, you know, I&#8217;m happy to host her. I&#8217;m happy to host Lou Elizondo, David Grusch, all these people. I&#8217;d love to get them on. And I&#8217;d love to stop the petty backbiting ad hominem attacks that they do and have done to them. Okay, so that&#8217;s number one.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Table stakes are they have to be safe, they have to have immunity. But I don&#8217;t buy this whole thing that they have to get some whistleblower law. We already have whistleblower laws passed. And again, David doesn&#8217;t have to be the one. David can hand off the information to Burchett and Burkhart or whatever and to Luna, and he can be safe and he can know that he doesn&#8217;t even have to hand them off. They know who the sources are and they know where the facilities are. They can go into the gifts themselves, and they can find out the information. The other thing I pushed Ami on, as you notice, is on his criticism of Beatriz Villarreal.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Now, I have my problems with Beatriz that we&#8217;ll talk about on Wednesday. Of course, cordially. I have great respect for her. She&#8217;s an incredible intellect, and she has so much passion, charisma. She also gets a ton of hate. I hate the fact that she gets threats and hatred and people attacking, ad hominem attacks. imputing her character as a scientist. I think it&#8217;s totally— but everything scientific that she says is fair game.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m gonna ask her, you know, Avi said this about the solar coronal mass ejections on my show on Monday afternoon, Monday morning, and what do you have to say about that? You have to explain that in order to at least have a comprehensive explanation. You claim that these defects— now I&#8217;m an observational astronomer, I know all about these plates, I have some of these plates from Palomar that Beatrice is analyzing, not the ones that show glints and And alleged, according to her and others, evidence of extrasolar— sorry, extraterrestrial, I mean off of the Earth technology that reflects sunlight prior to the Sputnik program. So in other words, prior to low Earth orbit satellites. Now, we don&#8217;t know for sure what was up there, right? I mean, there&#8217;s always that. It could be, as Avi said, it could have been Chinese or Russian. I kind of doubt that because the Chinese and Russians stole a lot of information about our nuclear program and our space program from the US.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Not that the Soviets didn&#8217;t steal as much from about the space program. They stole a lot more from the nuclear program, as you all know, from Fuchs and other people. And then they ended up building the hydrogen and the fusion devices shortly thereafter, getting the spy information from spies on the US. So 2 scientists are going to come to different conclusions. That&#8217;s fine. But we have to hold them both to the same standard. That&#8217;s what I&#8217;m going to do. And I&#8217;m going to get you to decide.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m going to present the evidence. There&#8217;s another thing that I want to challenge Beatrice about, which is that her contention that there were scientists killed in these massive string of deaths, allegedly, which is not actually the case. What, what, you know, that&#8217;s massive or aberrant or somehow unusual suicides, homicides, you know, potential accidents and so forth. And then accusing, you know, or suggesting, alleging, as she did on Twitter, that some of them were killed because they had special information or access to the type of science that she does with these glints, orbs, photometry, and these specular reflections. And I want to talk to her about one scientist in particular who died where I do my work in the Atacama Desert, where I&#8217;ve been half a dozen times, I can&#8217;t even remember. But this is a really important thing for us to discuss. And that&#8217;s why I&#8217;m going to push these people. And I&#8217;m going to push Michael Shermer.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m going to talk to Michael Shermer this coming week.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I know a lot of you don&#8217;t find him to be your favorite.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />your favorite flavor of, of Karspaugh. But you saw Avi has integrity. Avi put him specifically on the, uh, White House counsel, authorized counsel that he&#8217;s, uh, in charge of, um, because he wanted someone not just a skeptic. I mean, Michael&#8217;s not just like, oh, you&#8217;re just, you know, he&#8217;s just speculating. He&#8217;s trying to be, you know, Debbie Downer, you know, uh, Cassandra wannabe. You know, pessimists, you know, get to be right, but optimists get to be rich. No, no, Michael&#8217;s not like that. He, he will talk candidly, as he does in his new book, which is the main reason he&#8217;s on.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But I&#8217;m gonna talk to him about the Galileo Project and this new White House Council, because he&#8217;s on it with, with past guests Gary Nolan and, and others. And I&#8217;m hot.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I want to have them all on.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />A lot of them say stuff, and I have to hold their feet to the fire. Now, one thing about this council really rubbed me the wrong way, and I wonder if you can tell what it is. I mean, maybe put in the comments if you can suggest what, what do you think really kind of bugged me about what Avi&#8217;s what Avi was saying and the power of his committee, I was very concerned about it. And maybe you can guess in the, in the broad— So first of all, put a thumbs up and put a subscribe, you know, please on this, on this channel, because I am doing really, really interesting interviews this week. I like to think I do a lot of education. Most of it&#8217;s for free. Again, I teach at a public university, right?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m not—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I don&#8217;t have any book to sell or, you know, course to sell or whatever. I do a lot just to get it out there, and I&#8217;m Doing a lot more of, you know, kind of debunking style stuff, but not ad hominem. I didn&#8217;t, you know, I didn&#8217;t go after Michio Kaku in some of the ways that people were saying really awful things about him when I posted on X. I guess I kind of knew that, sort of my fault, that they would say things like, you know, we don&#8217;t have the science communicators that we deserve. I&#8217;m trying to be one of them. You know, I&#8217;m not the best. I&#8217;m not the last, but I&#8217;m doing my best and I&#8217;m doing it all, like I said, You&#8217;re watching YouTube for free, right? You watch some ads, maybe, maybe not. If you have YouTube Premium, I don&#8217;t get a penny from that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But, but tell me, what do you think was the most concerning thing? If you could guess it, maybe put in the comments after the video. I&#8217;ll give you guys, you know, 5 seconds to think about it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I wish I had my clickers that I use with my students. They love these clickers.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />They come in, I give them 10 points extra credit on their final exam if they brought clickers to class every class and answered the questions. Not even if they got them right, just if they answered. Anyway, builds engagement. You guys are engaging.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You&#8217;re attractive and engaging.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay, what was it? Is that he has no money. He got no money from the government, right? So what is this? If you get no money in, in a government that, you know, spends what, $7 trillion a year? And, and this could be the most important thing in human history, i.e., American history. And even if it&#8217;s not, even if it fails, you know, as people say, oh, it&#8217;s just going to discover, you know, Chinese Bible That&#8217;s freaking huge. And even if we discover there&#8217;s a huge sign, isn&#8217;t that incredibly important to the stated goals of the Trump administration? And I share those goals, right? So having no money, 0%, not even like, oh, we need a, you know, a hundredth of a percent, $0.000, right? I think that&#8217;s a fatal mistake. I think, you know, the first thing that I want to know is, am I gonna have a budget? Is there a governance structure? What is the transparency of this organization? Like, how are we going to communicate? What are we going to have access to? Now, Avi&#8217;s smart. He said that he&#8217;s smart, so he has to be smart, right? No, that kind of bothered me too, that he said, well, I&#8217;m smart, so I&#8217;ll know that they&#8217;re not going to— that they&#8217;re not trying to trick me with a psyop. Really, Avi? I mean, I couldn&#8217;t push— I can&#8217;t push back on everything because Avi charms me. He is one of my— I just like him.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I hate to say it. I have weaknesses. I&#8217;m only human. That&#8217;s one of my biases. But I did push back during the interview. But mostly I feel like to say that you are not— even to say, like, I could say, well, I&#8217;m going to take advice from my wife or my husband or my colleagues at Harvard. I mean, say something, right? Say something. There&#8217;s someone else besides you.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />If you are your own arbiter of what is being truthful, if someone is being truthful or not, I feel like this is another kind of It&#8217;s just putting a stumbling block in front of the blind. I think it&#8217;s, you know, if I had to bet right now that this, this, this council is led by my esteemed friend Avi Loeb, yeah, the, you know, foremost educational institution on Earth, you know, which has its own separate budget, and he has his own budget, and he&#8217;s also leading Galileo Project— these are all separate, you know, kind of orbs, so to speak. I would say right now I give it a, you know, a 60/40, you know, chance of not succeeding, um, just because it doesn&#8217;t have government backing. I, I also pressed him on a question I got a lot offline asking him, you know, if it&#8217;s gonna be recognized by the White House. So far it&#8217;s not. And he said that, you know, it&#8217;s authorized and it&#8217;s consonant with the president&#8217;s goals and the administration&#8217;s goals and all these national security goals. Well, sorry, Avi, there&#8217;s all these agencies are in constant conflict with each other. Part of what I heard from an Air Force, a very, very high-up fighter pilot in the Air Force, is that, um, that there&#8217;s infighting between the Air Force and Space Force and the Navy.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You notice that many of these sightings from Graves, uh, reporting sightings by squadron mates and others, um, and Fravor, Dietrich, um, are on the— in the Navy side. Grusch was in the Air Force. Um, uh, now we have the Space Force as of, you know, 2018, 2019, whenever that was started. Um, and there&#8217;s a huge amount of interagency, you know, Quite frankly, there&#8217;s hatred. I mean, unless they&#8217;re in war, there are huge territorial pissing contests that you would not believe. I&#8217;ve heard some of the most staggeringly inefficient uses of our tax dollars come from the fact that these agencies all want to have their own control. And then you add in the CIA, which is a separate— has its own separate military, paramilitary, intelligence-gathering wings, the FBI, even things like Homeland Security when the drones are flying over airports. These are all so entangled.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And to say like Avi&#8217;s gonna be their Harvard professor with $0 and they&#8217;re just gonna listen to him. They&#8217;re not listening to Luna. I mean, they&#8217;re not really— where&#8217;s this data dump? I mean, like I said, most of the stuff I&#8217;ve seen can be identified either by— has been identified by the NASA Blue Ribbon Panel led by my friend and colleague David Spergel and co-advised by our member Shelley Wright, who studies optical transient events. from extraterrestrial civilizations, potentially extraterrestrial civilizations, using optical photo avalanche detectors in the most novel way. She&#8217;s invented these telescopes. She&#8217;s looking— she would be probably the most thrilled person on Earth if these things were found to be extraterrestrial, but they haven&#8217;t. They found 95% in the NASA panel could be explained. Now, what bothers me is that people— and so 5% can&#8217;t be explained, but as Michael Shermer puts it, Just because you can&#8217;t explain it doesn&#8217;t mean that the antithesis is the correct one, right? You can&#8217;t just say, oh, because we can&#8217;t explain it, it means that it&#8217;s unexplained aerial phenomena means that they&#8217;re alien phenomena.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />No, that&#8217;s not the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is still it&#8217;s unexplained. We just don&#8217;t understand what it is. More data is needed, or if it occurred in the past. I mean, if you had asked somebody, you know, 2 years ago, can we get data from the 1950s that could shed light, maybe not prove, but could shed light on the existence of alien artifacts in our local low-Earth environment. You would say, what, are you crazy? There&#8217;s not— we don&#8217;t even get good video quality today. Like, how are you gonna get— like, what, are people gonna be mediums, you know, seeing back in time? No, no, no. But she went back, Beatrice went back and found these plates from the Palomar Sky Survey.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />She didn&#8217;t look at them for the galaxies and the quasar surveys. You know, first quasar surveys really done here, discovered Martin Schmidt here by Palomar.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />up the road in San Diego County at 6,000 to 7,000 feet up with a 200-inch telescope. It wasn&#8217;t the biggest telescope in the world anymore, but it was at the time. She did the hard work, and now we&#8217;re going back in time and getting evidence from now. So there could be other things in the oceans, you know, on the Moon there could be artifacts. And that always reminds me, you know, because I&#8217;m speaking so much, but, but I do want you to get meteorites, especially those of you who are students in the United States. If you have a .edu email address, you&#8217;ll win meteorite. So I want to send these to you. These are true, honest-to-good extraterrestrial, came from beyond our solar system potentially.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />No, it came from the pre-solar system. But I&#8217;m gonna send those to you if you have a .edu email address and live in the United States. If you don&#8217;t, I do give away 10 a month to people that don&#8217;t have it. Again, you have to live in the US because the US Post Service charged an awful lot of money for this poor state university professor to send you. Okay, now next, here&#8217;s what&#8217;s, here&#8217;s what&#8217;s coming up. So So when Beatrice comes in, she&#8217;s going to talk to me hopefully about the VASCO project. She&#8217;s very, very, very, very, I would say, exercised about these critiques that she&#8217;s had that these photographs did not come from the telescope itself, that came from artifacts like cosmic ray smashing that penetrate through the telescope completely and just make an image and an artifact on the photograph. plate.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />No, she says they went through the optics, and that can be proven. So then we have to press her on this issue of solar activity and coronal mass ejections. These are completely things opposite, you know, kind of, uh, conclusions. Now I want to understand what questions you want me to sort of ask her about things like Disclosure Day, about, uh, about maybe confirmation bias. Put those in the comments after, you know, when the video&#8217;s up. It&#8217;ll, uh, anyone, not just channel members, can can give comments, just not on the livestream. So, um, and what do you guys think about this fact that, you know, Grusch and others are now involved in the, uh, in, in Hollywood, you know, kind of dramatization? Disclosure Day, is, is that just gonna be, you know, the first of many things? And, and, and as Spielberg said, but Avi didn&#8217;t agree with, and I don&#8217;t agree with, you know, that he believes that these things are here, and he keeps using that word belief, belief, belief. And, and a lot of people kind of took issue with the video I made with Hugh Ross, again, an intelligent design proponent.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But I&#8217;ll talk to anybody. I talked to Steven C. Meyer of the Discovery Institute. I don&#8217;t care. You know, I like to be challenged intellectually. I like to challenge other people intellectually. But I all do— I do it always for the sake of truth, trying to understand what&#8217;s true. I&#8217;m not selling anything.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />They might be selling things. I&#8217;m happy to promote them. It&#8217;s very hard to make your, your living and stuff like that. But what do you believe about these, you know, people that are in the disclosure forefront, tip of the spear for disclosure, like David? But they haven&#8217;t seen the craft. They haven&#8217;t seen the body. They&#8217;ve never touched the technology. They&#8217;re not hardcore engineers. I think David does have a background maybe in engineering.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />People can correct me. But he was a major, major, maybe even a general. I don&#8217;t know, in the Air Force. He wasn&#8217;t a pilot, but I believe he operated drones. But anyway, to me it does. And it kind of— I sort of brought this up with Avi. He was asked to be in this movie.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But he&#8217;s playing himself, I guess. I don&#8217;t think David&#8217;s an actor. That&#8217;s not really what he wants to do. Or maybe he does.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I don&#8217;t know. He&#8217;s a handsome guy.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He could be a great actor.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I don&#8217;t know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But if he&#8217;s an actor, that makes things even worse, right? Because he&#8217;s— I mean, the actors are the ones that are most likely to be trained in human psychology and manipulation. Right. So I don&#8217;t believe he&#8217;s going to do that. But, but he is, you know, kind of held up at this level in a Bruckheimer, you know, kind of consulting role. So I don&#8217;t know. Would you do that? Do you find that suspicious in any way? Do you find suspicious in any way the Fravor revelation 3 days ago, 4 days ago? I put on from Reddit and other places, actually it was on Twitter I first heard it, that he believes Roswell was, you know, evidence of non-human bodies, technology. Let me see what he actually said over here. I don&#8217;t want to misquote him.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But yeah, I mean, I think this was a kind of an interesting, you know, kind of twist that, you know, he was essentially speculating, or saying, I don&#8217;t know how he would have evidence of that. I mean, he was a fighter pilot commander of a squadron, right? So why would he have knowledge about something from the 1940s? Right? Like, why would that be what he had special access to? I mean, it— maybe he does. I mean, he might be just getting informed from people. But then that raises the question again, does he not? Do these people have protection? Are they really in danger? I believe David Grusch could be in danger. So if that&#8217;s true, you know, then when, when he states something that goes in contradistinction to something that&#8217;s going on the record by Steve, by Sean Kirkpatrick, why don&#8217;t we wait that? Like, Sean could be, you know, could be committing some classified information faux pas reveal that he shouldn&#8217;t be, but he doesn&#8217;t, right? So he&#8217;s gone on the record and he said he disagrees with it. So I guess, you know, from my perspective, it is, it&#8217;s hard to know what&#8217;s believe. So yes, retired Commander David Fravor, famous for his Tic Tac encounter, has stated the government has recovered materials from Roswell and has known about a non-human presence on Earth for over 80 years. And then Fravor advocates for official transparency, like we all do, suggesting the world honestly deserves, deserves honesty regarding these issues.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So he&#8217;s known for the Nimitz encounter. Fravor has called— they have to be honest about the— just to be honest, we&#8217;ve known for 80 years that we&#8217;re not alone. Now, why would a fighter pilot have special knowledge? Now, maybe he does, but, but as far as I know, he&#8217;s retired. I don&#8217;t know when he retired, but, but I, you know, 2004, I can do the math. Uh, it was 22 years ago when he had the Nimitz encounter. Why would that then give him official information? Now, he may get information because whistleblowers may come to him hoping that he can get their story out, but he doesn&#8217;t have, as far as I know, he maybe never had. I mean, just because you&#8217;re in the military, I mean, I&#8217;ve had, I have friends that are fighter pilots, my Flight instructor, is a fighter pilot, F-18 pilot, just like him, even maybe at the same rank as him. He doesn&#8217;t have special information just because he&#8217;s a fighter pilot.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And, and, and Schirmer points out in his new book that actually pilots in general, including me— I&#8217;m a commercially rated pilot— that we&#8217;re some of the least reliable people. And of the least reliable pilots in the world are military pilots. Why is that?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Well, you&#8217;re telling me they&#8217;re not brave?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />F no. They&#8217;re freaking much more brave than I&#8217;ll ever be. And they&#8217;re badasses physically, mentally. They can kick the crap out of people like me. They could hold their own with Navy SEALs. These pilots are insane. They&#8217;re jacked. They&#8217;re incredible.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Ryan Graves is a beast, right? But they make mistakes at a higher rate. What explains that? Are they stupid? Absolutely not. One of my best friends is a Princeton graduate. He&#8217;s an F-18 commander, combat veteran. Okay, so these are not stupid people. Okay, so what happens, and this is what&#8217;s been borne out, they are extremely good hand-eye coordination. They are good at training for reactions to threats. Is a Cessna 172 that I fly around California, is that a threat to the F-18s at Miramar Marine Corps Air Station right here? No, they&#8217;re not a threat at all.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So they&#8217;ll ignore those types of threats. So they&#8217;re looking for anomalies. You have a filter as a pilot. You filter out things that are nominal, and you look for things that are anomalous, right? So they&#8217;re trained and heightened on the state of awareness to look for things that are anomalous. So this is what psychologists psychologists studying the military for other reasons. This is to avoid crashes and, and, and, um, and, and sort of other hazards to flight. Uh, another topic Ryan is, is quite bravely, uh, investing his time and energy in. Uh, and, and, and this is all, you know, again, for, for good purposes.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But when the first, you know, statement to go to is, well, Fravor is a fighter pilot, he&#8217;s braver than Brian Keating, and he&#8217;s, and he&#8217;s a better pilot than Brian Keating, none of which I dispute, then we must trust him on everything, including information about Roswell. No, no, sorry. You know, just like if they— if I go out and say, well, look, this is how a CCD or CMOS camera operates, this dark noise, flat field, these are the cosmic ray impacts, these are dark current sensitivity, or a CMB camera works. And then someone says, well, what do you think about aliens? I should say, I know nothing about that, right? I&#8217;m not an expert in that. But when they say, like, this object emits blackbody radiation, Well, quite frankly, I am an expert in that. And the US government under the Trump administration just forced the Argentinian government to cancel a high-altitude site near the Simons Observatory in the Andes Mountains, not that near us, but very similar to us, that the Chinese were developing. Why do the Chinese need an observatory in Argentina? Well, that&#8217;s weird. No, so they can have hemispherical synoptic observations of blackbody radiation.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s what I&#8217;m guessing. That&#8217;s why they probably did it. So if they&#8217;d come to me and said, well, Keating, well, why are they doing this? I would say, well, let&#8217;s look at it, you know, but, you know, I&#8217;m not going to talk about politics. But my expertise is in that field. Now, if it was to look for aliens, I could also say, yes, we could detect planets and we can detect objects like Oumuamua, anything that gives off heat. And everything in the universe gives off heat, even the universe itself. Right. And I&#8217;m an expert in detectors that operate at 1/100th or even 1/1,000th of a degree above absolute zero.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So these are things where you want experts in that field. Fravor, I&#8217;m sorry, he&#8217;s not an expert in the dynamics of UFOs just because he may have seen one that is unidentified anomalous phenomenon, aerial phenomena. He may have seen one, he may not have. And it may have been an actual extraterrestrial object or it could have been a terrestrial object. That&#8217;s what Avi seems to be leaning towards. But again, that we should listen to him about Roswell and believe him because he is more brave than Keating. And he&#8217;s a better pilot, maybe smarter than me, I don&#8217;t know. But to say that, that&#8217;s called the halo effect, right? When you ascribe information to and powers to people because their domain expertise lies in one field.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s like the World Cup&#8217;s going on now. Would you like the— this guy&#8217;s really good. I heard of this new soccer player. His name is Ronald O. I think he&#8217;s Irish. I&#8217;m not sure. Anyway, Ronald O. Ronaldo, right? So would you want Ronaldo to be your dentist? Yeah, I just got a cavity filled, right? No freaking way.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right. So you don&#8217;t ask. But he&#8217;s so great. He&#8217;s incredible.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, he is.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But he&#8217;s not a dentist. So we have to be careful like that. And that&#8217;s why when Anna Luna, Congresswoman Representative Luna, she talks about interdimensional beings, it does a disservice. I&#8217;m sorry. It just does. It sounds completely ridiculous. There&#8217;s no sense in which that sentence can be uttered without the follow-up question is, what do you mean? And then she has to say, I don&#8217;t know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />No, because there&#8217;s no notion of interdimensionality. There&#8217;s no evidence for interdimensionality, multiple dimensions, time traveling. When I talked to Tom DeLonge on this podcast with a CIA agent, Jim Semivan, you know, we heard, oh, the To the Stars Academy has objects. And I said, okay, well, what&#8217;s their history? How do you trace them back? And he said, oh, we don&#8217;t have a full traceable provenance of the object. Oh, that&#8217;s as good as nothing. That&#8217;s like me showing up with this and saying, this has biological material on it. I licked it. You know, you don&#8217;t know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You don&#8217;t know what&#8217;s happened to this. had the data, the bodies, the craft. So I think that these are, these are big challenges. And, and the final kind of sawhorse and hobby horse that I&#8217;ve been on lately involves, you know, this question of belief. Like, what does it mean to believe something? These— that you believe in extraterrestrial life. Like, okay, you believe in it. And these are, these are scientists. These are my colleagues all around the world.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And I&#8217;m hoping to have, you know, David Kipping back on, maybe Adam Frank back on the podcast, maybe all 3 of us, maybe have a big, you know, kind of debate between— not an argument, but I think we&#8217;re all respecting each other. But, when you hear things about non-human biologics, when you hear things about the continuum of life, not even like a continuum, you know, in the Earth&#8217;s— I don&#8217;t even know what a continuum is. Like, there&#8217;s not a continuum we think of sexes, right?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m going to get really controversial right now. There&#8217;s not a continuum of— it&#8217;s not like the electromagnetic spectrum where there&#8217;s an infinite number of real numbers and there&#8217;s an infinite number of wavelengths. No, no, there&#8217;s not a continuum. So how could it be that aliens have a continuum? Maybe they have this incredible diversity of life. Now, why would we have collected all of these, right? So maybe like in the movie Project Hail Mary by my friend and a former UCSD attendee, but he didn&#8217;t graduate, Andy Weir, you know, the Rocky character is this, you know, kind of giant spider with a carapace and everything else. Maybe that&#8217;s life on someplace. Maybe there&#8217;s astrophage on some other star, right?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I always say it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s more plausible— the deep scientific plausibility of Project Hail Mary far exceeds that of Interstellar. Sorry to break that to you. And now there&#8217;s a new one, Iron Lung. Has anyone ever seen that movie? Well, that could be even more plausible than either Project Hail Mary or Interstellar. So that&#8217;s my hottest hot takes. But anyway, you have a continuum, right, from corporeal bipedal life, which means it&#8217;s like us. Okay, I&#8217;m sorry to say that means it has a body, corporeal.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Bipedal has 2 legs. We evolved to walk upright under very specific gravitational, optical, and also from emerging from fish-like creatures, is the way we believe it, and having eyes on the side of our heads to having eyes on top of our heads. And the index of refraction difference gave us a predatorial advantage when we came on land. So the first objects had— were fish that came on land, we believe, evolutionarily. And then they had eyes on top of their heads, right? And then they want to see even further, so then they need to get more on land, and then maybe the evolutionary process process started from there. We don&#8217;t know. I mean, this is pure speculation, but at least the bipedalism, if we track bipedalism throughout the fossil record, throughout evolutionary biology, it&#8217;s an incredibly specific, highly, highly appropriate— I don&#8217;t even want to say intelligently designed because I don&#8217;t want you to think like I just buy into everything my intelligent design— no, far from it. Although I did have another hot take, which is that string theory has fewer experimentally verified predictions than does intelligent design, because string theory has zero.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And according to even the best string theorist, Joseph Conlon, and has been on the podcast, his book on string theory, CRC Press, has a chapter, Experimental Evidence for String Theory, and the entire chapter is there is none. But according to Stephen C. Meyer and other evolutionary biologists that work on this field, that there was a prediction that the human DNA sequence would have so-called junk DNA that would turn out to be functional. And for a long time, they called it junk DNA, and then it was found to be functional. Now, that&#8217;s very, very low, what&#8217;s called Bayes factor. I&#8217;m not being serious, really, but I do like to tease, you know, kind of my colleagues on both sides. I&#8217;ll tease the intelligent designers, as you&#8217;ll hear in my pushback on Stephen C. Meyer, because he talks about fine-tuning.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And I said, no, the universe is extremely poorly tuned. It&#8217;s as if I&#8217;m playing the violin. You know, I&#8217;m a horrible musician. The only instrument I can play is Spotify. But the universe has dark energy, which dominates all other forms of matter and energy, and we could change the amount by a factor of 10, and you wouldn&#8217;t notice it at all. We&#8217;d still be here. Life would still be here. So to say that it&#8217;s exquisitely finely tuned is just false.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And then they can cherry-pick and go back to some other time. I also push back on Jewish apologetics. Gerald Schroeder claims the universe 7 days of creation in the Torah corresponds to the astrophysical and physical epochs of quark-hadron separation, electroweak phase transition. Total nonsense, okay? And I push back on that very strongly. So you&#8217;re never going to get me— maybe I&#8217;m explaining why I&#8217;m not invited to many parties. But anyway, I find it fascinating to talk to all these people on different legs of the stool and hopefully come to some conclusion that gets us a little bit closer to truth. You know, I&#8217;ve talked about, you know, people that, like Avi, who would talk about things with a straight face, like sentient plasmoid life versus a hypothesis that gets smuggled in in terms of belief. I mentioned that to Avi.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />This Vickers study kind of shook me that people would state that they believe, not like I believe in God, you know, I believe in astrology. No, I don&#8217;t say any of that. I say I don&#8217;t believe in that. I say I actually don&#8217;t say I believe in God ever. Never say it. I say I am looking for evidence that God is plausible as a scientific hypothesis. And, and, and people like Sean Carroll, who are very simplistic in their knowledge of Judaism or Christianity or any type of religion, will say, oh well, God wouldn&#8217;t have created a universe that has, um, so many galaxies, right? Why did he waste so much space? And I&#8217;m like, oh yeah, well, you know, God wouldn&#8217;t have created an atom that has 99.999999% empty space, right? It&#8217;s an idiotic argument to say like what God should or should not do. I mean, I know Sean has an ego, but, but, but really, Sean, I mean, this is like in his, in his most cited work, you know, God Is Not a Good Theory.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />To appeal to that, it&#8217;s like saying, well, you know, why are there so many elements? You know, would God create so many elements? You know, how do you know how many elements? I mean, 190 years ago we thought there was about 10 elements, right? Now we know there&#8217;s, there&#8217;s 10 times that number So I think these are awesome. I think we need to hold the scientists&#8217; feet to the fire. We need to hold the alien, you know, kind of maximalists&#8217; feet to the fire. We need to hold the religious adherents&#8217; feet to the fire. And I don&#8217;t think anyone else is doing this. And that&#8217;s why I think this channel is criminally unsubscribed— undersubscribed, not unsubscribed. I don&#8217;t want you to hear that. But we crossed 400,000 subscribers.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But I really feel like we&#8217;re doing— we&#8217;re getting these incredible interviews. I just interviewed my 26th Nobel Prize winner, and Nobel Prize winners are asking to come on my show. It&#8217;s a great flattery to me, but really, do you? I mean, a lot of these people see the power of the audience, and a lot of people won&#8217;t or will— I asked Neil deGrasse Tyson to come on. He said he would, then he backed out. He said he didn&#8217;t have time, and then I saw him on Piers Morgan. Like, okay, Piers Morgan&#8217;s got 10 times more subscribers than me. I&#8217;ll give him a pass. You know, I&#8217;ve been on Piers Morgan twice now.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But, but, you know, if I had 10 times more subscribers, who knows, maybe he&#8217;d say no to Piers Morgan and not to Brian Keating. Now, I know a lot of you don&#8217;t like Neil deGrasse Tyson anyway, but he&#8217;s an important person, right? I mean, I also push his feet to the fire. He said a lot of nonsensical stuff too. I mean, everything that he said about, you know, spectrums and things like that, we could— I can push back on him like nobody else because we have a respect. I&#8217;ve been on his show. In person, you know, I&#8217;ve been on the show twice. He&#8217;s been on my show 2 or 3 times, and he&#8217;ll be back. But I want you guys to ask me the questions that I should be asking on your behalf.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I view myself as your ambassador, but I&#8217;m also an independent person with my own curiosities, right? Okay, so the last question, you know, I kind of want to leave you guys with is, you know, where do you want to see things in the channel go? I&#8217;m not, I&#8217;m not like gonna be captured by the audience in the sense of I&#8217;ll do whatever you say, and, you know, I&#8217;ll do the, uh, the, uh, 100 days in a yacht challenge, and if I spend 100 days in the yacht, uh, I get to keep— I&#8217;m not gonna do that, sorry. But, um, no matter how much the audience wants it, right? I miss my, my home cooking, right? Um, but in terms of like the, the disposition, I find a lot of people, you know, either love or hate the kind of content that I do. They either love that I&#8217;m talking about religion or hate that I&#8217;m talking about religion. Either love that I&#8217;m talking, you know, someone who&#8217;s interested in investigating alien life, and then people that hate it, or people that love that I&#8217;m talking to a skeptic like Shermer, or hate that I&#8217;m talking to Shermer. People that think, oh, you&#8217;re just, you know, licking the boots of Eric Weinstein. I haven&#8217;t had Eric on in over a year. I mean, I talk to him all the time, but, you know, I haven&#8217;t found that what he has to say lately is mandatory, you know, content for my channel. And a lot of people like did a poll on the channel, who do you want to see on? And he got more votes than most people, as he usually does.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But, but it wasn&#8217;t by the same margin. It used to be like 80, you know, 80/20 kind of thing, 80 for Eric and 20 for everybody else. But maybe I need to do more surveys like that. But I&#8217;m really enjoying it. But I need to know, you know, kind of where, where, you know, you&#8217;re gonna be— you&#8217;re gonna be intellectually honest with yourself and have integrity to listen to people you don&#8217;t agree with. Yeah. Because what YouTube really rewards, and, you know, I&#8217;m not a master of it at all, but, but I find it fascinating because you get instant feedback, you get real-time data, you get to talk to— I mean, I have, you know, half a million followers across the, the video and audio, you know, feeds of this podcast. And it&#8217;s a huge— I just looked up that in, in the last 6 months of this year, like a million hours, people have watched a million hours.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Wow.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />of my content. It&#8217;s insane. I can&#8217;t believe that. I can&#8217;t listen to myself for a million. I talked to my mother and she&#8217;s like, people pay to listen to you? I wouldn&#8217;t listen to you for free. No, she doesn&#8217;t say that. That would be horrible. But what YouTube really rewards is, first of all, looking at the video, deciding you want to watch it, sharing it with somebody else, leaving a thumbs up, leaving a comment.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Those are huge engagement signals. But the best engagement signal is how long you watch the show for. Like, how long do you tune in for? And I think, you know, a lot of people will either tune in not at all or they watch the whole thing. So I find a lot of people do that. A lot of people are watching— 60% of you are not subscribed that are watching.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I don&#8217;t know why.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It doesn&#8217;t cost you anything to click that little subscribe button. And again, we&#8217;d have over a million subscribers on YouTube alone, plus even more on audio feeds as well. So I need to know that you&#8217;re going to be kind of the ride-or-die audience that I feel like I&#8217;ve cultivated. Again, 26 Nobel Prize winners. I&#8217;ve talked to more Nobel Prize winners than anyone on Earth as far as I know. And I don&#8217;t just do— like, even with my most recent guest, I pushed back on the Nobel Prize winner. It&#8217;s fun. They like it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You can&#8217;t believe how many podcasts I&#8217;ve been on. I&#8217;ve been on all the big podcasts, right? I can&#8217;t think of one. Maybe put one in the comments that you think I should be on. I don&#8217;t know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What&#8217;s the guy&#8217;s name?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Oh, I always get him. He always pops up.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />How? Lewis How?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Is it Lewis How? Anyway, he&#8217;s like a really big name podcaster that I&#8217;m often— people tell me I should go on and tell my human story. Anyway, put it on there. But I think I&#8217;ve been on Rogan. I&#8217;ve been on Diary of a CEO. I&#8217;ve been on Jordan Peterson multiple times, StarTalk multiple times. I&#8217;ve been on Chris Williamson way back when, before he had a video even. And who am I missing? I&#8217;ve been on Ben Shapiro&#8217;s Sunday Special. I&#8217;ve been on, again, I&#8217;m blanking.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Andrew Huberman, I was on. Sean Ryan, I was on. Mayim Bialik, I was just on. He&#8217;s incredibly— these are tens of millions of views, right? But are there people that I haven&#8217;t been on? Because I think that that&#8217;s sort of a way to get a new audience into the pipeline, but to also know that, to be exposed to the fact that I do something I think that&#8217;s unique and that people really need nowadays. And the types of content that I&#8217;m doing right now are very different from Lex Fridman. I&#8217;ve been on Lex Fridman. I should have— I&#8217;m the 10th most popular episode on his show.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I don&#8217;t know why I forgot that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So I don&#8217;t feel like I need to go back on these people&#8217;s pod— like, it&#8217;s like I leave, you know, the— Jordan said, you know, leave the best on the floor. Like, you don&#8217;t have to come back. I don&#8217;t care if I ever go back on Rogan or whatever. The one episode I&#8217;m mad about is the Portal podcast with Eric Weinstein. I went on the Portal podcast in 2020, recorded it at this huge studio, multiple cameras. I brought him all these things and it never aired. Eric canceled the podcast, shut it down. So leave a comment if you think the Portal should come back on, or at least, at least let me broadcast the episode, Eric.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I mean, come on, this is 6 years now. It&#8217;s ridiculous. But I thought it was one of our best. And we, you know, we get along. We, we argue like brothers, but we get along like brothers. It&#8217;s a lot of fun.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />know, Eric.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But let me know, where do you think the type of Keating approach is most valuable? Because I am doing explainers. I also should say, and I should have said this before, I have another channel where I&#8217;m moving my hard physics explanations to based on advice that I&#8217;ve been given. You shouldn&#8217;t put that type of content on the same content as mainly the podcast or clips from the podcast. So this channel, Dr. Brian Keating, from now on, really, the last few months has been like this, is going to be all about interviews, conversations, sometimes explainers of not the physics but of reactions to other people&#8217;s interviews. Like I said, I just did an episode about reacting to Michio Kaku&#8217;s appearance on Diary of a CEO where he made so many flaws. I&#8217;d like to believe that it was a mistake and he&#8217;s just getting older. He&#8217;s 80 years old, I think, now.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But some of them are just so bad and so pernicious to the human understanding of things like string theory and dark matter. And, and, you know, I felt like it was my responsibility to hold his feet to the fire as a friend, as a, as a someone who really looks up to him. I think I was respectful. I&#8217;m not going to ever attack people ad hominem.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />There&#8217;s enough of that on the internet.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Uh, the next one&#8217;s going to be about, uh, this guy Kevin Knuth, who also is a physicist. He was on Mayim Bialik&#8217;s podcast before I was, and he said a lot of, you know, kind of, uh, speculative things about cattle mutilations and, and, and UFO sightings. And he&#8217;s done actual hard work in physics research on the unidentified aerial phenomena physics, which I think is interesting. I&#8217;d like to talk to him. Maybe he won&#8217;t come on after I do my reaction to him, although again, it&#8217;s very respectful. But I just take the claims and I hold it up against evidence. I identify where there&#8217;s human biases like belief and, and confirmation bias, and all these things apply to me. Brian Keating as much, if not more, than anybody else.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />The next one after that is about Graham Hancock, who also appeared on Steven Bartlett&#8217;s show, and it&#8217;s already got 6 million views in like 2 or 3 days, talking about megastructures underneath the pyramids, how the ancient world discovered Antarctica 300 years before the Western world did, and the Younger Dryas impact theory. of, uh, civilizational collapse. And so there&#8217;s 3 huge whoppers that he brought up. A little bit reluctant to attack him in any way. I never attack him personally or any of these people personally at Hominin, but he is suffering some medical condition. Apparently he&#8217;s having a heart surgery soon. I wish him well, wish him long life. Um, but at the same level, again, he&#8217;s getting all this influence.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He came on the show, right? So he had the 2 and a half hours or 3 hours that Stephen requires And that does bring me back. I didn&#8217;t close the loop. I have an explainer channel, Keating Experiments. Please do subscribe to that. It&#8217;s almost 10,000 subscribers over there. That&#8217;s where it&#8217;s going to be, you know, how does the muon spin tell us about string theory or some extra dimensions? The explainer videos like that are going to appear over there exclusively. And then where Brian Keating is either talking to somebody or talking about somebody, but again, respectfully reacting to somebody, That&#8217;s gonna be over here on Dr. Brian Keating.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So bifurcation is a worrisome thing, but whatever, it&#8217;s fun for me. I have a small team in various countries around the world. Shout out to the team, and they&#8217;re keeping me sane. And then I have my day job where I&#8217;m publishing incredible video—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />incredible videos—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />incredible. I am gonna make a video about some of the science that&#8217;s coming out of the Simons Observatory as soon as it&#8217;s unembargoed. But I&#8217;m just— I am just so excited to share with you guys. I mean, I&#8217;m an actual working scientist. I&#8217;m an experimentalist. I&#8217;m not like Brian Greene, Michio Kaku, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Jim Gates, Eric Weinstein, these brainiac theorists. No, we need them. But some of my best friends are theorists.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But I am an experimentalist. I want the evidence. I want the hard data. I want to collect the data. I want to build the instrument that collects the data. I want to analyze data that comes out of it. I want to understand how things like AI and, and these massive revolutions that we&#8217;re undergoing for the first time in human history are going to impact me intellectually and you intellectually. So I&#8217;m going to have dedicated videos.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Those will be on Keating experiments where I go into the experimental, you know, nitty-gritty. But why it&#8217;s important to you, why you should care about that. Why do you care if a neutrino has negative mass? What does that even mean? That&#8217;s going to be on Keating experiments. Please do subscribe down there for that. I&#8217;ll put a link down below. The last thing I want to say is what makes me unique. I have to say this. As I said, the thread that gets lost because I am a professor and I do get absent-minded, is I&#8217;ve been on all these huge podcasts from Rogan to Stephen Bartlett to Lex Fridman to Mayim Bialik now to Sean Ryan.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I love all those guys and girls.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I want to say that I&#8217;m grateful that they gave me their platform. That said, they do things differently than I do. And that is the main thing for me is that I will never have somebody on Who has a book that I haven&#8217;t read their book. And I&#8217;m not going to name names, but there are some people on that list who was obvious to me within 10 seconds of sitting down with them, putting on the headphones, that they never opened any of my books. Now, I put my blood, sweat, and tears into these 4 books that I&#8217;ve written. Soon will be 5. Maybe I have 6 in me before I die. But these books, my self-help guide, for the STEM Curious, Into the Impossible, Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner, Into the Impossible, Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner, distilled wisdom from the greatest geniuses on Earth that have ever lived.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m almost at the point where I can write a 3rd volume. I don&#8217;t know the title. Give me a title for that down below. And then my magnum opus, you know, my first, my memoir, Losing the Nobel Prize, is about what it means to be a cosmologist, but a father, a son, someone who loses a mentor to suicide, someone who loses his father, and trying to operate at the highest levels because I was told I couldn&#8217;t get tenure if I didn&#8217;t win the Nobel Prize prospectively. Okay, so what does it feel like to be a young scientist with everything to lose and curious about something that has no practical value whatsoever, like inflationary cosmology? How did the universe begin? I write those books, and it takes a lot out of me. It takes a lot of time, opportunity cost, time value of money, all these things.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Incredible.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Plus, it costs money. I had to hire artists. You know, the publisher doesn&#8217;t give you money to get illustrations, but But I felt those are mandatory to explain the science and inflationary cosmology in my first book. I paid for it out of my own pocket. Again, I made almost a tenth of minimum wage, probably a tenth of minimum wage given my advance was what it was and the amount of hours put into it, surely far below minimum wage. Now, I put a lot of time and effort into it. You can distill the wisdom of at that time a 40-year-old, 45-year-old guy, right? And the knowledge, and that&#8217;s so pertinent nowadays. We are swimming in knowledge.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We have almost no wisdom. We&#8217;re dying of thirst for wisdom and we&#8217;re drowning in knowledge, AI, the internet. We have abundant information, we have no distillation of that. And that&#8217;s what I&#8217;m trying to do on this podcast, but that&#8217;s certainly what I do in my books. And to have a host fly me out at great expense to them and time expense to me away from my wife, my kids, my teaching, I have to get people to cover for me. Shout out to my colleagues that cover my classes and my postdocs. and supervision. It&#8217;s a lot, you know.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I have a lot of things on my plate, and I&#8217;m going out there. The least you could do is read my book, please. It takes— I mean, some of these books take almost— I have audiobooks for every single book I&#8217;ve ever written, including Galileo&#8217;s Dialogue. Now, okay, I don&#8217;t expect anyone, you know, who&#8217;s having me on to listen to a 21-hour-long audiobook, but that was with Carlo Rovelli, and that&#8217;s an acted version for the first time in human history of a book by Galileo, the greatest mind in science, I think, that ever lived, you know, maybe with the possible exception of Einstein or, um, or my father-in-law. No, I&#8217;m just kidding. But, but the point is, how, how else, you know, why are you having me on, you know? Uh, and, you know, I know you&#8217;re having me on because you&#8217;re partially— you have a much bigger platform than me, you know, say, uh, I don&#8217;t know, someone&#8217;s podcast.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I haven&#8217;t been on, or maybe I have been on.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Um, you have a much bigger podcast, and so I appreciate you, and I&#8217;m grateful. I have gratitude to you. That&#8217;s the most important thing, first of all. But take the time. And so I do that for every one of my guests. I&#8217;ve read 500 books. And you know what? I had a brain scan done for some other reasons. You know, everything&#8217;s fine, turns out.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But they did brain scan on me, and then they did it again a year later, and then at the 5-year mark. My brain is actually increasing in density and and gray matter and vascularity and all the good things about brain. And I think it&#8217;s 100% due to this podcast. You know, I do have a selfish reason to do it. It&#8217;s not monetary. I don&#8217;t— I lose money on this podcast because I pay my editors. I never get somebody to read. I don&#8217;t have anyone doing my booking.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I don&#8217;t have anybody who does, you know, kind of research for me except for my AI tools, which I have handcrafted over the last 2 or 3 years to make them incredibly pertinent to the things that interest me the most. You know, callouts to the things that matter to you the most, and to edit it tightly to get rid of all the verbal yappage that I&#8217;m known for, right? You know, I want to cut down on that. I know this is kind of self-indulgent, but, but you&#8217;ll excuse me if you&#8217;ve lasted this far. I assume that you can handle a little bit of yapping.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Let&#8217;s see how many people are still listening at this point. Oh my god, there&#8217;s more people listening now than was listening before.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay, there&#8217;s over 1,000 people. People listening right now. Um, I just really appreciate you guys. I mean, I can&#8217;t, I can&#8217;t tell you. I mean, um, it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s funny, my, my— sometimes I got recognized.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I went to Hawaii last year and I was getting on the plane. I&#8217;m like, uh, about to get—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />this guy&#8217;s staring at me. I&#8217;m like, I passed TSA, you know, why are you looking? He&#8217;s like, you&#8217;re Brian Keating, right? I&#8217;m like, uh, yeah, it depends.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Do I owe you money?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Like, oh, what&#8217;s going on, brother? And he&#8217;s like, no, I love your podcast.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I get these things all the time.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m like, it makes me so gratified. Like, this thing didn&#8217;t exist, you know, 6 years ago. I started this thing 6 years ago when COVID was raging, and I could— I knew I was smart enough to know that authors like Avi or other people would answer my email if I asked them to come on the show because they weren&#8217;t doing book tours. I did, you know, a book tour in 2018, 2019. 2020 was gone, couldn&#8217;t go on book tours. So I could get any of the dream guests that I ever wanted. I&#8217;ve never had a guest really I can&#8217;t think of anyone. I mean, I&#8217;ve talked to Elon Musk.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Um, you know, I, I would like to talk to him probably again at some point, but, but, um, but, you know, kind of been there. Talked to 26 Noble.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />The people that I miss talking to are the people that are, um, no longer with us.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So best of luck with that. Maybe Anna Luna can get me some interdimensional beings and I can do some interviews. But I did interview Freeman Dyson. That&#8217;s one of my most treasured interviews. Him, Jim Simons. These people aren&#8217;t alive anymore, and that is my treasure. You know, I have that for all time. And the Nobel Prize winners are just, you know, gonna keep growing.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And like I said, they keep— some of them are asking me. I mean, 10 of them have asked to come on my podcast. I don&#8217;t think they&#8217;re asking to come on, you know, some of these other podcasts, right? I mean, they might appear on them, but I think that they know they get something special, and I&#8217;m always gonna read their books. I mean, that&#8217;s the least I can And so you&#8217;ll never have me unprepared. I will cancel an interview if I haven&#8217;t had time to read it or I don&#8217;t want to read it. And it really helps when I have on people that have audiobooks, just in case you want to know, because I listen to things. I can listen at 2x speed and I can do things, you know, with audio that I can&#8217;t do with printed. But I am reading printed books now.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m kind of getting back into it. Some fiction. I&#8217;ve had on 4 Pulitzer Prize winners. These are the things that really make it so enjoyable. And I always say at work, I have to talk to people. There are people I have to talk to.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />The telescope azimuthal encoder drive is broken and I need to get somebody out at 18,000 feet in Chile and it&#8217;s a Chilean holiday and it&#8217;s a German company and they can&#8217;t get an import for an American part that comes from China. Anyway, you want to know, those are people I have to talk to. Some of them I like a lot. I love my graduate students. I have to talk to them or else they&#8217;ll go off in crazy directions. My undergraduates, I have to talk to. I get paid to talk to them. And just the other day I finished up class for the quarter and they all did great and they gave me a standing ovation.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It was like emotional for me.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I have to be honest with you.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />A couple of them came up and took a selfie with me and they were like, do you mind if— can I take a selfie with you? Like, they were so— and I was like, yeah, you guys rock. Like, everything I do, I owe to you guys. And, and so this is what I do. This is what I love. I&#8217;m always gonna read the books. I&#8217;m always gonna go deep. I&#8217;m never gonna stop talking to people that I disagree with. You know, I&#8217;ve had people not, not want to come on the show.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I can name names, right? It&#8217;s too bad. You know, it&#8217;s too bad for them. I think that they are scared of a little bit of pushback. I think you all know the Malibu meditator that I&#8217;m talking about. Just didn&#8217;t want to come back on the show ever again because I pushed back on him on his utterly simplistic, ignorant, you know, kind of view of again, some biblical topic that he feels capable of talking about, fine. I&#8217;m not gonna say he can&#8217;t talk about it, but the fact that he never got pushback once— everyone just tells him what a brilliant genius he is, and everything he says is just so, so wonderful, intellectually deep. I&#8217;d love to talk to him. I offered him to stay at my house during the Malibu fires.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He politely, you know, turned that down.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Um, but that&#8217;s— again, I feel like it&#8217;s his loss. I can talk to Richard Dawkins, who hosted me, flew me up to Vancouver to host him for 2 days, um, at this wonderful live show in front of 1,000 people, uh, and it was incredible. And, uh, and he knows I don&#8217;t just— I don&#8217;t agree with him about a lot of stuff. I push back on Richard Dawkins. Like, who has the chutzpah to do that besides me? I mean, I, I don&#8217;t care. I don&#8217;t want these interviews where people are just like, oh, you&#8217;re so amazing, let me just lick lick your boots. This is incredible. Now, do I talk to people like Avi or my friends and I cut them maybe a little bit more? Okay, I&#8217;m a human being.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I have friends. Sorry to say I have friends. But you notice even with the friends like Eric, Eric, I think he gets annoyed with me. He&#8217;ll tell me that he doesn&#8217;t want to talk about a subject because I&#8217;m pushing him on something that&#8217;s uncomfortable for him. I&#8217;ll push him on things like publication. I&#8217;m the very person who really forced him to publish on April Fool&#8217;s Day 2021 his theory of geometric Now, he didn&#8217;t do it to the level that people want him to, and he said he&#8217;s an entertainer so that he wouldn&#8217;t be liable for people cutting his stuff and he could have legal recourse against them.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />This is his excuse.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But without me and one of my best friends in the world, Stefan Alexander, we pushed him to put it in writing, and he did. And it wasn&#8217;t all because of me and Stefan, but I think we played a big role in it. And so I&#8217;m going to push back even on my good friends. Okay. So that&#8217;s what you&#8217;re gonna get. You&#8217;re gonna get depth. You&#8217;re gonna get someone who&#8217;s prepared. I always come prepared.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;ve heard people like Chris Williamson, you know, who I think also has sort of blocked me because I criticized him for, you know, hosting rabid antisemites and people, you know, that are just, just horrific human beings, you know, because they&#8217;re of interest to his audience. Fine. I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;ll ever have me back on, but I was there for him before he had, you know, 1,000 subscribers. Uh, now he&#8217;s got 4.5 million, so good for him. I&#8217;m really happy for him. But, um, but to hear that, you know, when he told his audience that, you know, he doesn&#8217;t read the books effectively, um, because he doesn&#8217;t want to be like a short form or, you know, Blinkist for his, uh, audience to skip the book. And, and I don&#8217;t want that either. I want you to buy the books.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I want you to— you know, I&#8217;ve kept these books for years, right? These are, you know, my libraries. That&#8217;s like 1/10 of my library behind me. I&#8217;ve got 10 times the that in my studio, in my in-person studio. So my books are my treasure. We&#8217;re people of the book, right? This is the most important thing to me. So that means I&#8217;m gonna take it seriously. I&#8217;m gonna read the books. I&#8217;m not gonna summarize it so you don&#8217;t have to buy it, but I&#8217;m gonna read that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m gonna pull out the things that are most pertinent, most just fire me up. My Obsidian, my Apple Notes, my second brain is brimming with connections between these 550 now books. between them. So I can ask, you know, upcoming guest Annie Jacobson, who&#8217;s coming on for a new book that she&#8217;s written called Biological War. That should be fun, right? You know, biological war, a scenario. She&#8217;s coming on in July. It&#8217;s embargoed. They&#8217;re sending me that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s incredible that they have trust in me, and I&#8217;ve earned the trust. I&#8217;ve never broken embargo, never will, even with my own experiments, right? I&#8217;ve been under embargoes many times, and for books and for research and And I&#8217;ll always respect that. That&#8217;s, that&#8217;s the duty of a scholar. So in summary, if you want deep dives where people are gonna go be pushed respectfully, friendly— I think I bring more humor to it than most podcasters do. Even I had one producer of a podcast that shall remain nameless, but I went on his podcast and it was right after Joe Rogan was on the podcast with the same host. And the producer said he laughed more when I was on the show. Okay, now I think Joe is a lot funnier than me, but on the same token, I do believe that there&#8217;s a role for seriousness and for humility, and quite frankly, to be, you know, kind of respectfully antagonistic. I have to say, to have the chutzpah to back it up with intellect and back it up with preparation.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;m always going to maintain the preparatory standards, Preparation H. I&#8217;m always going to maintain it because if I don&#8217;t, I feel like a fraud. I feel like people— if I were to have on a guest like Michael Shermer or, you know, so sometimes I like to be a guest on other people&#8217;s podcasts. I have to do no preparation, although I even do that. I actually have a self-trained LM specifically for when I&#8217;m going to guest on Sean Ryan&#8217;s podcast, I do deep research on him. You know, he doesn&#8217;t have books, but he has 500 episodes. And what are the themes? What are the things that he goes deep on? What are the things that he doesn&#8217;t care about? What are the things that he&#8217;s so passionate about he&#8217;ll interrupt something even more important to discuss this subject? Does he talk about the news? Does he talk about his kids? Does he talk about his upbringing? He changed his name. You know, what does he do? So I go deep into them when I&#8217;m a guest, but it&#8217;s a little bit easier easier, uh, to be a guest than to be a host.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So it is hard to be a host, especially this week. I have 4 guests on this week, including Avi Loeb, Beatriz Villarreal, Michael Shermer, and then Nate Suarez, who wrote, uh, co-wrote, um, If Anybody Builds It, Everybody Dies with Eliezer Yudkowsky. Uh, it&#8217;s an AI safety researcher. I just released my episode with Roman Yampolsky. Please check that out. I went deep on— and that was not an easy book to read. A lot of math proofs and, uh, and deep excursions into the formal logic behind the assertion that AI is either safe or unsafe. And that has huge implications for governance, for regulations, for our own safety and the flourishing of the human species.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And he&#8217;s very pessimistic. He made me sort of doubt, but I pushed back on him. I said, you know, you say that AI is unpredictable, therefore it&#8217;s uncontrollable. It was sort of a version of the halting problem that Turing popularized in his Turing machine paper. That was the name of it, actually. It was a halting problem, and sort of like Gödel&#8217;s incompleteness theorem. And I said, you have a version of those 2 massive theorems, Gödel&#8217;s theorem and Turing&#8217;s theorem, and you&#8217;re saying it&#8217;s predictable that it&#8217;s going to be unpredictable. But isn&#8217;t that a tautology? So I want you to watch that episode, hour and a half.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I think I went deeper with him than any other interview, certainly than Mike— I love Stephen Bartlett, but I— he can&#8217;t get as deep technically because by his own admission, he He didn&#8217;t go to college. He didn&#8217;t finish college. I think he went for 2 days.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />and I love those guys, and I really appreciate them for hosting me. I just wish that they would maybe spend a little bit more time. If you, if you like me enough this far, you know, to go on a first date, you&#8217;re gonna love me once you get to know me. And that&#8217;s the way I feel about my guests. I really love each— I haven&#8217;t had anyone on— even, even Sam Harris. I love Sam Harris. I— there&#8217;s nothing that he could do I pay for his apps and his podcast because he has, he has a fine mind and we disagree on a ton of stuff. But, you know, so be it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He&#8217;ll never come on again. Maybe I&#8217;ll see him in some, you know, some secret cabal meeting somewhere where he, you know, kind of runs for president to take over, you know, Trump on his 8th term. You know, Sam will be there standing at the vanguard. But until then, Sam, you&#8217;re always welcome back on. And everybody else, I don&#8217;t want to say you&#8217;re welcome.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I want to say thank you.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I want to say thank you so much. So maybe this is my 400,000 subscriber celebration. Maybe I&#8217;ll clip this and make that into that because I want Avi to have his segment standalone from this. But I really can&#8217;t resist talking about my favorite subject, which is me. And no, it is just a great thrill. You guys mean so much to me. And so share it with a friend. Try to get some more people involved.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Again, I don&#8217;t care about the numbers, you know, like I hit 400,000, my kids are really excited about it, but at the same time, like, well, it&#8217;s— how is it really different than 399,999? You know, so I posted, you know, here&#8217;s— oh, I got to 399,974,000 subscribers. You know, like, okay, that&#8217;s what I always wanted. I mean, I know if I go to a million or whatever, half a million, I&#8217;m just gonna say, well, you know, there&#8217;s another number that&#8217;s bigger. That&#8217;s the property of natural numbers.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />members.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So love you guys.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Please stay with it even if you don&#8217;t like it, even if you don&#8217;t like the content. I promise you, you&#8217;re going to grow your pink gray matter, especially when you don&#8217;t agree with me or my guest or both or neither. You&#8217;re going to grow your mind.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And we have so little time.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />In just a few years, according to Roman, we won&#8217;t even have these things anymore. There&#8217;ll be no point in having a podcast. Brian Keating will be irrelevant. You&#8217;ll just click on something optimized for Stephen Dedalus From night— born in 1974. And it&#8217;s gonna look him up and it&#8217;s gonna say, oh, these are all the things in a social graph I love. And we&#8217;ll just dial it in and they&#8217;ll get pumped like soma into his brain and he won&#8217;t need me anymore. So until that happens—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Until that happens, stay tuned, always be curious, and thank you so much.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Please do share it, subscribe, don&#8217;t forget to do that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Basic things. Okay, love you all. Talk to you next time.</p>								</div>
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		<title>Professor, lecture thyself!﻿</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/prof-lecture-thyself/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sabartigas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 05:53:05 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Professor, lecture thyself!﻿ An Open Letter to Adam Grant Dear Adam, One professor to another, and as an admirer: your recent New York Times essay on return-to-office mandates &#8220;The Secret Reason Bosses Want Everyone Back in the Office, Every Day of the Week&#8221; is witty and provocative. Yet it leaves unexplored what may be its most accessible and scientifically revealing test: studying the profession you and I share. The NYT headline promises “the secret reason” bosses want everyone back and answers it in a single word: ego. It illustrates one of social psychology&#8217;s oldest cautions: the temptation to explain organizational decisions by personality before exhausting situational explanations. More specifically, narcissism. That’s a striking claim. It’s also perilously close to the fundamental attribution error: explaining behavior by personality while overlooking circumstance. A social psychologist should be the last person comfortable making that move. The irony is that your own essay quietly builds the competing theory. You discuss anchor days, cite Atlassian’s finding that intensity matters more than frequency, distinguish basketball teams from gymnasts, acknowledge that remote patent examiners thrive while remote inventors struggle, and concede that mentoring, apprenticeship, creativity, and collaboration are not equally suited to remote work. Maybe Jeff Bezos has a colossal ego. Maybe Elon Musk is an outright narcissist. I’ll grant you both, Grant. But Amazon also has warehouses. Tesla builds cars. SpaceX launches rockets. Hospital CEOs employ nurses. Airline bosses need employ gate agents and mechanics. It is difficult to assemble an F-150 over Slack. Ego and operational reality can both be true, and more than one may explain a return-to-office policy. Because I’m a scholar, I did what scholars are supposed to do. I didn’t stop with the popular New York Times essay. I read the underlying paper. Not that you need to hear it from a physicist, but to your credit, the paper is extremely well-done. It&#8217;s noticeably more careful than the op-ed. It explicitly controls for frontline-dependent industries, a nuance readers of the NYT never see. But it also reveals something more troubling. The remarkable diversity of the Fortune 500 is ultimately reduced to a binary distinction: frontline-dependent or not. Boeing, hospitals, Amazon fulfillment, manufacturers, retailers, and airlines become one category. Microsoft, Oracle, Goldman Sachs, and consulting firms largely become the other. That is a useful first approximation. It is not the same as demonstrating that the remaining variation is best explained by narcissism. Organizations differ in apprenticeship, occupational mix, innovation, security, and the simple feasibility of remote work. Those are precisely the kinds of situational variables brilliant social psychologists like you usually urge us not to ignore, and correctly so. But one prof to another, the most interesting counterexample isn’t Amazon. It isn’t Tesla. It’s us. The professoriate is perhaps the most remote-capable prestige profession on Earth. We need no assembly line, no operating room, no warehouse. If any profession should have embraced permanent Zoom, it was ours. The lecture hall should be among the richest sources of narcissistic supply. We stand in front of attentive audiences. We supervise apprentices. We direct laboratories. We enjoy unusual autonomy. If anyone should have preferred permanent in-person work because of admiration alone, surely it would have been professors, many of whom have lifetime sinecures no CEO enjoys: tenure! And yet universities eventually came back — remember teaching 90 minute lectures wearing masks in front of the healthiest cohort on earth — vaccinated 18-22 year old undergrads (also wearing masks)!? I’ll never forget it. We didn’t return to work because our fellow faculty suddenly developed a craving for applause we somehow lacked in 2019, but because something essential had been lost. Apprenticeship became denuded, bland, ineffective. Mentoring became harder. Conversation became less spontaneous. Research groups lost cohesion. Learning itself changed. That certainly matches my experience—and, I suspect, the experience of many faculty, students, and parents. If you don’t believe so, ask any student or parent who endured the 2020 Spring and Fall quarters at home supervising multiple Zoom instances in between their own sessions required by work! Interestingly, your paper quietly suggests as much. Buried under the category “Learning” is perhaps its most important observation: “An apprenticeship model is almost impossible to replicate in the Zoom world.” That observation suggests a serious competing hypothesis. It also points toward a much simpler explanation than narcissism: some forms of teaching, mentoring, creativity, and collaboration genuinely improve when human beings occupy the same room. One aspect of the paper genuinely surprised me. The strongest experimental evidence supports power, not status, as the key mechanism linking experimentally induced narcissistic thinking to resistance to remote work. Not that power hunger is somehow angelic but it belies nearly every memorable line in the New York Times essay which suggest status as the driver: “the glow of employee reverence,” “the thrill of a live audience” and of course the journal article’s title: “Worship me at the office altar.” Those are rhetorically brilliant phrases. They are also describing precisely the mechanism that the paper’s own causal experiment failed to establish: Study 3, your only randomized experiment, reached a far subtler conclusion than the op-ed. Experimentally increasing narcissistic thinking produced only a modest increase in resistance to remote work, and it did so primarily through power, not status. Those exposed to the narcissism message were slightly more likely to favor return-to-office policies. The main reason wasn&#8217;t a desire for admiration—it was a stronger desire for power and control over employees. Again, not great personality traits, but your own experiment suggests that narcissistic thinking can modestly increase resistance to remote work, primarily by increasing leaders&#8217; desire to exert authority rather than their egoic need for status or applause. None of this proves ego-driven return-to-office mandates don’t exist. Some, maybe many, undoubtedly do. Your findings on power may well help explain them. But the deeper scientific question was never whether narcissistic CEOs exist. It is which work arrangements produce better products, stronger organizations, deeper learning, richer apprenticeship, and greater innovation. That question deserves competing hypotheses. So, from one professor who could have outsourced himself to recorded]]></description>
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									<h3><strong>An Open Letter to Adam Grant</strong></h3><p>Dear Adam,</p><p>One professor to another, and as an admirer: your recent New York Times <a class="ck-link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/22/opinion/office-work-wfh-bosses.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">essay</a> on return-to-office mandates &#8220;<em>The Secret Reason Bosses Want Everyone Back in the Office, Every Day of the Week</em>&#8221; is witty and provocative. Yet it leaves unexplored what may be its most accessible and scientifically revealing test: studying the profession you and I share.</p><p>The NYT headline promises “the secret reason” bosses want everyone back and answers it in a single word: ego. It illustrates one of social psychology&#8217;s oldest cautions: the temptation to explain organizational decisions by personality before exhausting situational explanations. More specifically, narcissism. That’s a striking claim. It’s also perilously close to the fundamental attribution error: explaining behavior by personality while overlooking circumstance. A social psychologist should be the last person comfortable making that move.</p><p>The irony is that your own essay quietly builds the competing theory. You discuss anchor days, cite Atlassian’s finding that intensity matters more than frequency, distinguish basketball teams from gymnasts, acknowledge that remote patent examiners thrive while remote inventors struggle, and concede that mentoring, apprenticeship, creativity, and collaboration are not equally suited to remote work.</p><p>Maybe Jeff Bezos has a colossal ego. Maybe Elon Musk is an outright narcissist. I’ll grant you both, Grant. But Amazon also has warehouses. Tesla builds cars. SpaceX launches rockets. Hospital CEOs employ nurses. Airline bosses need employ gate agents and mechanics. It is difficult to assemble an F-150 over Slack. Ego and operational reality can both be true, and more than one may explain a return-to-office policy.</p><p>Because I’m a scholar, I did what scholars are supposed to do. I didn’t stop with the popular New York Times essay. I read the underlying <a class="ck-link" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0749597826000300" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">paper</a>. Not that you need to hear it from a physicist, but to your credit, the paper is extremely well-done. It&#8217;s noticeably more careful than the op-ed. It explicitly controls for frontline-dependent industries, a nuance readers of the NYT never see. But it also reveals something more troubling. The remarkable diversity of the Fortune 500 is ultimately reduced to a binary distinction: frontline-dependent or not. Boeing, hospitals, Amazon fulfillment, manufacturers, retailers, and airlines become one category. Microsoft, Oracle, Goldman Sachs, and consulting firms largely become the other.</p><p>That is a useful first approximation. It is not the same as demonstrating that the remaining variation is best explained by narcissism. Organizations differ in apprenticeship, occupational mix, innovation, security, and the simple feasibility of remote work. Those are precisely the kinds of situational variables brilliant social psychologists like you usually urge us not to ignore, and correctly so.</p><p>But one prof to another, the most interesting counterexample isn’t Amazon. It isn’t Tesla.</p><p>It’s us.</p><p>The professoriate is perhaps the most remote-capable prestige profession on Earth. We need no assembly line, no operating room, no warehouse. If any profession should have embraced permanent Zoom, it was ours.</p><p>The lecture hall should be among the richest sources of narcissistic supply. We stand in front of attentive audiences. We supervise apprentices. We direct laboratories. We enjoy unusual autonomy. If anyone should have preferred permanent in-person work because of admiration alone, surely it would have been professors, many of whom have lifetime sinecures no CEO enjoys: tenure!</p><p>And yet universities eventually came back — remember teaching 90 minute lectures wearing masks in front of the healthiest cohort on earth — vaccinated 18-22 year old undergrads (also wearing masks)!?</p><p>I’ll never forget it. We didn’t return to work because our fellow faculty suddenly developed a craving for applause we somehow lacked in 2019, but because something essential had been lost. Apprenticeship became denuded, bland, ineffective. Mentoring became harder. Conversation became less spontaneous. Research groups lost cohesion. Learning itself changed. That certainly matches my experience—and, I suspect, the experience of many faculty, students, and parents. If you don’t believe so, ask any student or parent who endured the 2020 Spring and Fall quarters at home supervising multiple Zoom instances in between their own sessions required by work!</p><p>Interestingly, your paper quietly suggests as much. Buried under the category “Learning” is perhaps its most important observation: “An apprenticeship model is almost impossible to replicate in the Zoom world.” That observation suggests a serious competing hypothesis.</p><p>It also points toward a much simpler explanation than narcissism: some forms of teaching, mentoring, creativity, and collaboration genuinely improve when human beings occupy the same room.</p><p>One aspect of the paper genuinely surprised me. The strongest experimental evidence supports power, not status, as the key mechanism linking experimentally induced narcissistic thinking to resistance to remote work. Not that power hunger is somehow angelic but it belies nearly every memorable line in the New York Times essay which suggest status as the driver: “the glow of employee reverence,” “the thrill of a live audience” and of course the journal article’s title: <strong>“</strong><u><strong>Worship</strong></u><strong> me at the office altar.”</strong></p><p>Those are rhetorically brilliant phrases. They are also describing precisely the mechanism that the paper’s own causal experiment failed to establish: Study 3, your only randomized experiment, reached a far subtler conclusion than the op-ed. Experimentally increasing narcissistic thinking produced only a modest increase in resistance to remote work, and it did so primarily through <strong>power</strong>, not <strong>status</strong>.</p><p>Those exposed to the narcissism message were slightly more likely to favor return-to-office policies. The main reason wasn&#8217;t a desire for admiration—it was a stronger desire for power and control over employees. Again, not great personality traits, but your own experiment suggests that narcissistic thinking can modestly increase resistance to remote work, primarily by increasing leaders&#8217; desire to exert authority rather than their egoic need for status or applause.</p><p>None of this proves ego-driven return-to-office mandates don’t exist. Some, maybe many, undoubtedly do. Your findings on power may well help explain them. But the deeper scientific question was never whether narcissistic CEOs exist. It is which work arrangements produce better products, stronger organizations, deeper learning, richer apprenticeship, and greater innovation.</p><p>That question deserves competing hypotheses. So, from one professor who <em>could</em> have outsourced himself to recorded lectures years ago, but chose the classroom for reasons that had nothing to do with being worshiped at the lectern:</p><p><strong>Professor, lecture thyself!</strong></p><p>The most interesting untested population may be us — professors: a profession unusually rich in status and autonomy, and unusually capable of working remotely. If narcissism is a major driver of return-to-office preferences, academia offers a natural test case. Your studies convincingly demonstrate that narcissism contributes to remote work resistance. As far as this experimental physicist could tell, they do not tell us whether it is the dominant explanation or merely one contributor among many operational realities.</p><p>So run the experiment on the profession you and I actually share. That would be fascinating, wouldn&#8217;t it? Sure, it might make you less popular around the Faculty Club. But academia offers a uniquely powerful test case: a profession unusually rich in status and autonomy, yet unusually capable of working remotely. If narcissism is a major driver of return-to-office preferences, then differences in narcissism among professors should predict differences in attitudes toward remote teaching. If apprenticeship, mentoring, and pedagogy dominate, disciplinary and educational differences should matter far more. Best of all, you and your colleagues already have access to exactly the population needed to answer the question. And if you&#8217;re looking for a narcissistic physicist to include in the sample, I happily volunteer. Good science begins with a willingness to test one&#8217;s own hypotheses—including those about oneself.</p><p>Respectfully,</p><p>Brian</p>								</div>
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									<p><strong>Time might not be real.</strong></p><p>I joined Peter McCormack to dig into one of physics&#8217; strangest open questions: what time actually is, and why it seems to only move forward. We get into what may have existed before the Big Bang, why something can&#8217;t come from nothing, and how my work with the Simons Observatory could catch gravitational waves from the universe&#8217;s first moments. Then the conversation turns from cosmic time to the human kind: mortality, family, attention, and whether AI could ever replicate the kind of insight that let Einstein rewrite physics.</p><p>​<a class="ck-link" href="https://preview.kit-mail3.com/click/dpheh0hzhmh4/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cueW91dHViZS5jb20vd2F0Y2g_dj11b1hWQkJxNzhWWQ==" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Watch the full conversation</a> to find out why I think we need to stop apologizing for humanity&#8217;s greatness.</p>								</div>
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									<p>Good news for those of us with a penchant for sweets and space: astronomers have detected an actual sugar molecule drifting through interstellar space—a discovery that strengthens the idea that some of life&#8217;s essential ingredients may have formed long before Earth itself.</p><p>The finding, reported this week in <a class="ck-link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/13/science/space/sugar-milky-way.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><em>Nature Astronomy</em></a>, suggests that the chemistry leading to biology was already underway in the cold clouds between the stars. &#8220;This is a real, bona fide sugar,&#8221; said Brett McGuire, an astrochemist at MIT who was not involved in the study. &#8220;It&#8217;s just incredibly exciting.&#8221;</p>								</div>
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									<p>The rich life ain’t so expensive!</p>								</div>
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									<p><strong>Ten years. One prediction. Two and a half sigma off.</strong></p><p>​Scott Dodelson, Director of Fermilab&#8217;s Cosmic Physics Division, helped build the standard model of cosmology. Now he&#8217;s trying to kill it. We get into the Dark Energy Survey result that has him questioning Lambda-CDM, the Dodelson-Widrow mechanism he proposed back in 1994, and why nobody has ever found dark matter in a lab despite decades of searching.</p><p>Watch to hear why he told me killing the model he built is his dream, and what cosmology looks like in 2036 if he&#8217;s right.</p>								</div>
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									<p data-node-text-align="start" data-line-height-align="1.5" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">By popular demand, and for my mental health 😳, I am starting a paid “Office Hours” where you all can connect with me for the low price of $19.99 per hour. I get a lot of requests for coffee, to meet with folks one on one, to read people’s Theories of Everything etc. Due to extreme work overload, I’m only able to engage directly with supporters who show an ongoing commitment to dialogue—which is why I host a monthly Zoom session exclusively for patrons in the $19.99/month <a href="http://www.patreon.com/checkout/drbriankeating?rid=25468411" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><strong>tier</strong></a>.</p><p data-node-text-align="start" data-line-height-align="1.5">It’s also available for paid Members of my Youtube channel at the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" data-wplink-edit="true"><strong>Cosmic Office Hours level </strong></a>(also $19.99/month). Join here and see you in my office hours!</p>								</div>
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		<title>The AI labs are quietly terrified of biology</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/terrified-of-biology/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sabartigas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 04:42:51 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://briankeating.com/?p=8346</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The AI labs are quietly terrified of biology Dear Magicians, Why I&#8217;m Not Worried About My Job I signed up for Claude Science the week it shipped. I went in chasing Lorentz invariance, maybe a crack at the theory of everything that eluded Einstein. What I found was protein folding. Genomics. PubMed, NIH, cheminformatics. I clicked through every offering and, when I looked, nothing was physics. It was biology, biochemistry, pharmacology, top to bottom. That is not an accident. It is a confession. Here is the mechanism, and it&#8217;s one I feel in my own work. Biology is a supervised-learning problem: millions of genomes, billions of protein sequences, decades of labeled examples. A neural network eats that. Physics is not. There is no training corpus of a million quantum-gravity examples. Nature supplied exactly one universe, and experimental cosmology proceeds one observation at a time, each one costing a multinational collaboration a decade and a billion dollars. A model cannot interpolate between examples that do not exist. So it is fluent in molecular biology and merely ordinary at the vacuum. Ask Sam Altman or Dario Amodei what a scientist needs and the honest answer is a genomics stack and a protein-folder. To them, &#8220;science&#8221; means biology. AlphaFold earned Hassabis a Nobel, and it deserved it, but notice what it was: enormous intelligence applied to a problem already well posed. That is brilliant, but is it truly universal, like the laws of physics purport to be? This is also why the labs are quietly most afraid of bioweapons. The dual-use is not a side effect, it&#8217;s arithmetic: the algorithm that finds a beneficial mutation can find a harmful one. And the barrier is gone. Want proof? Iran is still trying to produce a fission device 80 years after the USA deployed one in war. A pathogen has no such floor. Annie Jacobsen&#8217;s sources told her a kid in a basement, with an LLM, now approaches what once took a state. When she got a model to surface something it shouldn&#8217;t, it was fixed fast, because she had the CEO&#8217;s ear. Most people don&#8217;t. Safety becomes a race against diffusion, and diffusion usually wins. Progress amplifies human intentions. It does not improve them. Which is exactly why I sleep fine about my own trade. These systems master what has already been done and merely needs horsepower. Give one my Brian Keating-Einstein test and it&#8217;s a brilliant undergraduate and a hopeless Einstein: it will fold a known protein, but it cannot tell you which unasked question about the vacuum is worth your life. Wisdom is still scarce. So is physics. I&#8217;ll keep my job. Until next time, have a M.A.G.I.C. Week, Brian Appearance My conversation with Pulitzer finalist Annie Jacobsen goes live today on Into the Impossible (EP 559), timed to the release of her new book Biological War: A Scenario. Her previous scenario book was about nuclear war, where the terror is instantaneous visibility. This one is about the opposite problem: a war that may begin as a cough, a cluster, and a statistical disagreement. I pushed her on the question I care about most. If biological war began, how would we know? I&#8217;ll be visiting with her again for a live podcast and book signing event. If you&#8217;re in San Diego, come out and see us on Coronado Island next Thursday Genius Last week, I told you about the good news that the Sun won&#8217;t engulf the Earth for another four billion years. This week, I&#8217;m sad to say I have to bring you some sadder, more pressing news. Apparently, the universe has been trying to kill us for millions of years, and we&#8217;re only just reading the memo. A new study suggests that, about 2.5 million years ago, a passing star wandered a little too close, gave our Oort Cloud a gravitational shove, and started a comet shower we&#8217;re still living through today. That&#8217;s right—the dinosaurs got an asteroid, and we inherited the cosmic leftovers. As a cosmologist, I find this oddly comforting. Every time I think my inbox is overwhelming, I remember there&#8217;s an ancient celestial snow globe still shaking debris toward Earth because one star couldn&#8217;t mind its own business. The best part? This means the solar system has neighborhood drama&#8230; Anyone up for a reboot of Apple TV&#8217;s &#8220;Your Friends and Neighbors&#8221; Solar System Edition! Image The powerful and talented team behind the Simons Observatory at our annual face-to-face meeting at the University of Toronto. Conversation Latest on Into The Impossible https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zScFJ7BTcuo COVID had a 1% death rate. Pneumonic plague has 100%. ​Annie Jacobsen has spent years interviewing presidential advisors, STRATCOM commanders, and Soviet bioweapons defectors. Her new book, Biological War: A Scenario, walks through how an outbreak goes from lab leak to total anarchy — in just 6 days. We got into the CDC&#8217;s most-feared pathogens, the &#8220;kid in a basement&#8221; problem now that AI can help design bioweapons, and why the first 24 hours after a leak decide everything. Watch the full conversation to hear it. Subscribe to my podcast! More than 2M downloads! Advertisement By popular demand, and for my mental health 😳, I am starting a paid “Office Hours” where you all can connect with me for the low price of $19.99 per hour. I get a lot of requests for coffee, to meet with folks one on one, to read people’s Theories of Everything etc. Due to extreme work overload, I’m only able to engage directly with supporters who show an ongoing commitment to dialogue—which is why I host a monthly Zoom session exclusively for patrons in the $19.99/month tier. It’s also available for paid Members of my Youtube channel at the Cosmic Office Hours level (also $19.99/month). Join here and see you in my office hours!]]></description>
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					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">The AI labs are quietly terrified of biology</h2>				</div>
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																<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zScFJ7BTcuo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">
							<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="450" src="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Annie-1024x576.gif" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-8348" alt="" srcset="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Annie-1024x576.gif 1024w, https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Annie-300x169.gif 300w, https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Annie-768x432.gif 768w, https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Annie-1536x864.gif 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />								</a>
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									<p>Dear Magicians,</p><p><strong>Why I&#8217;m Not Worried About My Job</strong></p><p>I signed up for Claude Science the week it shipped. I went in chasing Lorentz invariance, maybe a crack at the theory of everything that eluded Einstein. What I found was protein folding. Genomics. PubMed, NIH, cheminformatics. I clicked through every offering and, when I looked, nothing was physics. It was biology, biochemistry, pharmacology, top to bottom.</p><p>That is not an accident. It is a confession.</p><p>Here is the mechanism, and it&#8217;s one I feel in my own work. Biology is a supervised-learning problem: millions of genomes, billions of protein sequences, decades of labeled examples. A neural network eats that. Physics is not. There is no training corpus of a million quantum-gravity examples. Nature supplied exactly one universe, and experimental cosmology proceeds one observation at a time, each one costing a multinational collaboration a decade and a billion dollars. A model cannot interpolate between examples that do not exist. So it is fluent in molecular biology and merely ordinary at the vacuum.</p><p>Ask Sam Altman or Dario Amodei what a scientist needs and the honest answer is a genomics stack and a protein-folder. To them, &#8220;science&#8221; means biology. AlphaFold earned Hassabis a Nobel, and it deserved it, but notice what it was: enormous intelligence applied to a problem already well posed. That is brilliant, but is it truly universal, like the laws of physics purport to be?</p><p>This is also why the labs are quietly most afraid of bioweapons. The dual-use is not a side effect, it&#8217;s arithmetic: the algorithm that finds a beneficial mutation can find a harmful one. And the barrier is gone. Want proof? Iran is <u><em><strong>still</strong></em></u> trying to produce a fission device 80 years after the USA deployed one in war. A pathogen has no such floor. Annie Jacobsen&#8217;s sources told her a kid in a basement, with an LLM, now approaches what once took a state. When she got a model to surface something it shouldn&#8217;t, it was fixed fast, because she had the CEO&#8217;s ear. Most people don&#8217;t. Safety becomes a race against diffusion, and diffusion usually wins.</p><p>Progress amplifies human intentions. It does not improve them.</p><p>Which is exactly why I sleep fine about my own trade. These systems master what has already been done and merely needs horsepower. Give one my Brian Keating-Einstein test and it&#8217;s a brilliant undergraduate and a hopeless Einstein: it will fold a known protein, but it cannot tell you which unasked question about the vacuum is worth your life. Wisdom is still scarce. So is physics. I&#8217;ll keep my job.</p><p>Until next time, have a M.A.G.I.C. Week,</p><p>Brian</p>								</div>
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							<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="450" src="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ITI559-Thumbnail1b-1024x576.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-8349" alt="" srcset="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ITI559-Thumbnail1b-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ITI559-Thumbnail1b-300x169.jpg 300w, https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ITI559-Thumbnail1b-768x432.jpg 768w, https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ITI559-Thumbnail1b-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ITI559-Thumbnail1b.jpg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />								</a>
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									<p>My conversation with Pulitzer finalist <strong>Annie Jacobsen</strong> goes live today on<a class="ck-link" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zScFJ7BTcuo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> <em>Into the Impossible</em> (EP 559)</a>, timed to the release of her new book <a class="ck-link" href="https://www.amazon.com/Biological-War-Scenario-Annie-Jacobsen/dp/B0FY5WRTVC" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><em>Biological War: A Scenario</em></a>. Her previous scenario book was about nuclear war, where the terror is instantaneous visibility. This one is about the opposite problem: a war that may begin as a cough, a cluster, and a statistical disagreement.</p><p>I pushed her on the question I care about most. If biological war began, how would we know?</p><p>I&#8217;ll be visiting with her again for a <a class="ck-link" href="https://www.eventbrite.com/e/annie-jacobsen-discussing-biological-war-tickets-1990750200439" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">live podcast and book signing event</a>. If you&#8217;re in San Diego, come out and see us on Coronado Island next Thursday</p>								</div>
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																<a href="https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/did-a-passing-star-shower-us-with-comets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">
							<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="475" src="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Comet_McNaught_at_Paranal-ESO-Sebastian-Deiries-ST.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-8350" alt="" srcset="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Comet_McNaught_at_Paranal-ESO-Sebastian-Deiries-ST.jpg 900w, https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Comet_McNaught_at_Paranal-ESO-Sebastian-Deiries-ST-300x178.jpg 300w, https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Comet_McNaught_at_Paranal-ESO-Sebastian-Deiries-ST-768x456.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" />								</a>
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									<p>Last week, I told you about the good news that the Sun won&#8217;t engulf the Earth for another four billion years. This week, I&#8217;m sad to say I have to bring you some sadder, more pressing news. Apparently, the universe has been trying to kill us for millions of years, and we&#8217;re only just reading the memo.</p><p>A <a class="ck-link" href="https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/did-a-passing-star-shower-us-with-comets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">new study</a> suggests that, about 2.5 million years ago, a passing star wandered a little too close, gave our Oort Cloud a gravitational shove, and started a comet shower we&#8217;re still living through today. That&#8217;s right—the dinosaurs got an asteroid, and we inherited the cosmic leftovers.</p><p>As a cosmologist, I find this oddly comforting. Every time I think my inbox is overwhelming, I remember there&#8217;s an ancient celestial snow globe still shaking debris toward Earth because one star couldn&#8217;t mind its own business.</p><p>The best part? This means the solar system has neighborhood drama&#8230; Anyone up for a reboot of Apple TV&#8217;s &#8220;Your Friends and Neighbors&#8221; Solar System Edition!</p>								</div>
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									<p>The powerful and talented team behind the <strong>Simons Observatory</strong> at our annual face-to-face meeting at the University of Toronto.</p>								</div>
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									<p><strong>COVID had a 1% death rate. Pneumonic plague has 100%.</strong></p><p>​Annie Jacobsen has spent years interviewing presidential advisors, STRATCOM commanders, and Soviet bioweapons defectors. Her new book, <em>Biological War: A Scenario</em>, walks through how an outbreak goes from lab leak to total anarchy — in just 6 days.</p><p>We got into the CDC&#8217;s most-feared pathogens, the &#8220;kid in a basement&#8221; problem now that AI can help design bioweapons, and why the first 24 hours after a leak decide everything.</p><p>Watch the full conversation to hear it.</p>								</div>
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									<p data-node-text-align="start" data-line-height-align="1.5" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">By popular demand, and for my mental health 😳, I am starting a paid “Office Hours” where you all can connect with me for the low price of $19.99 per hour. I get a lot of requests for coffee, to meet with folks one on one, to read people’s Theories of Everything etc. Due to extreme work overload, I’m only able to engage directly with supporters who show an ongoing commitment to dialogue—which is why I host a monthly Zoom session exclusively for patrons in the $19.99/month <a href="http://www.patreon.com/checkout/drbriankeating?rid=25468411" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><strong>tier</strong></a>.</p><p data-node-text-align="start" data-line-height-align="1.5">It’s also available for paid Members of my Youtube channel at the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" data-wplink-edit="true"><strong>Cosmic Office Hours level </strong></a>(also $19.99/month). Join here and see you in my office hours!</p>								</div>
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