<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	 xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" >

<channel>
	<title>Transcripts &#8211; BRIANKEATING</title>
	<atom:link href="https://briankeating.com/transcripts/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>https://briankeating.com</link>
	<description></description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2026 01:29:35 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>
	hourly	</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>
	1	</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>https://wordpress.org/?v=7.1.3</generator>

<image>
	<url>https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/sb8ZzbFR_400x400-150x150.jpg</url>
	<title>Transcripts &#8211; BRIANKEATING</title>
	<link>https://briankeating.com</link>
	<width>32</width>
	<height>32</height>
</image> 
	<item>
		<title>Are UFOs Alien Tech? Avi Loeb vs Michael Shermer</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/are-ufos-alien-tech-avi-loeb-vs-michael-shermer/</link>
					<comments>https://briankeating.com/are-ufos-alien-tech-avi-loeb-vs-michael-shermer/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sabartigas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2026 01:21:44 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Transcripts]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://briankeating.com/?p=8973</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Are UFOs Alien Tech? Avi Loeb vs Michael Shermer https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sj7LRq-Uq3k Transcript: Go to the Primary Sources Avi Loeb: The scientific approach is indeed should be guided by evidence and we shouldn&#8217;t have a prejudice. We shouldn&#8217;t have a view about the outcome before we see the evidence. Now, one reason I have you in the council is so that those believers will attack you instead of me for missing the scientific method. Michael Shermer: I have to say, Brian, the vitriol on both sides, it&#8217;s amazing what people say about each other. It&#8217;s not just on X, but on X especially bad. But as I&#8217;ve gotten to know Avi pretty well, I&#8217;m just amazed by the shit they talk about him. It&#8217;s like, my God, this is ridiculous. He&#8217;s not at all like this. And then people, of course, they hate on me and they hate on the believers, whatever. I don&#8217;t know. It&#8217;s almost political, right? It&#8217;s like politics. Avi Loeb: The way to think about it is what people say reflects on them more than on the subject that they are talking about. We see that a lot in politics, but we see it in science as well. And then the way to distinguish between truth and what people are saying is to look at the primary sources. So if someone says that they said something, go ahead and check if Avi said that thing. When you check the primary sources, you will realize that I didn&#8217;t say that thing. And that&#8217;s the way science is done, by the way. We go to nature, to the data that is collected by instruments to tell us what is out there, rather than talk about what is out there, which is very common on social media. You just say what you think is out there, but that&#8217;s not necessarily what is out there. Most of the time we are wrong. So the same is true when you say that a person should be dismissed because he said this and that. We should check if that person actually said that. And unfortunately, social media is such a shallow platform that people don&#8217;t really go to the primary sources. They don&#8217;t really check. Just yesterday, someone was saying that I said bad things about Jay Stratton. I didn&#8217;t say, I said only positive things about Jay Stratton. Personally, if you look at my essay, I only gave his credentials. And I said that we should look for the evidence behind what he&#8217;s talking about, which is exactly what I&#8217;m saying right now. It&#8217;s not a bad thing to say that about Jay Stratton. It&#8217;s about the fact that, enough with storytelling, enough with verbal testimonies, we are at an age where it&#8217;s time for us to look at the evidence. And that&#8217;s what I&#8217;m saying. I think that resonates very well with what the public wants. If Jay Stratton says there is a spacecraft that is withheld within government or within corporations, I want to see the spacecraft. What could be more natural than that? Before I believe it. And someone may say, well, he&#8217;s worried about showing the spacecraft because he might get retaliation. And I say, well, he doesn&#8217;t need to show it to me. He doesn&#8217;t need to show it to Michael. He doesn&#8217;t need to show it to the council. He can go straight to the White House and have a guided tour of President Trump to the spacecraft. The only person who would know about it is President Trump. There is no doubt that President Trump is interested in this subject. Why? Because he put the directive out. He sees a political benefit from being the person who provides the revelation about alien intelligence. That would be a huge event. President Trump will be remembered for thousands of years just by making this recognition that we are not alone, that we are not perhaps at the top of the cosmic food chain. So it will be a great political boon for President Trump. There is no doubt that he wants it. And so I&#8217;m saying, Jay Stratton, you know about the spacecraft, go ahead and give the inside information straight to President Trump. I&#8217;m not asking to know about it myself, but if you want, I&#8217;ll be happy to help. ## Why Isn&#8217;t She Just Opening Up the Kimono? Brian Keating: I heard the exact same thing from Michael Shermer a couple months ago when he was on my show for his wonderful new book. And he was using not President Trump, Marco Rubio. But I have a better idea. How about Councilwoman Luna? And by the way, Avi, you&#8217;re very close with her. She did a kind of a glow-up shot of herself visiting your Harvard observatory and looked through the telescope during the day. Why isn&#8217;t she just opening up the kimono? Here&#8217;s everything we know. And I respect her. She has no whistleblower concerns whatsoever. She has no security, no doxing concerns. She has every right and every responsibility as the chairwoman. Is this just a manifestation, either one of you guys, of the Peter principle, which we have in academia? The Peter principle, you rise to the level of your incompetence. We have a thousand deans and so forth. Why are there so many directors of different task force, Avi? Who are these people? We have Lou Elizondo, David Grusch, Anna Luna, Jay Stratton now, Christopher Mellon, all these people who have the podcasts and books and appearances. Who the hell are these people? And why isn&#8217;t the one at the top of the food chain, the chairwoman of the congressional committee on this task force, why isn&#8217;t she just opening up the kimono, like you just said? Avi Loeb: Well, so first of all, it&#8217;s obvious that the US government sees objects they don&#8217;t understand. The fundamental question is, do they represent alien technology, non-human made technology? That&#8217;s a very simple]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="8973" class="elementor elementor-8973">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-2746bb4 e-flex e-con-boxed wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no e-con e-parent" data-id="2746bb4" data-element_type="container" data-e-type="container">
					<div class="e-con-inner">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-261deb7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading" data-id="261deb7" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="heading.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Are UFOs Alien Tech? Avi Loeb vs Michael Shermer</h2>				</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-c36d4be elementor-widget elementor-widget-video" data-id="c36d4be" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-settings="{&quot;youtube_url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=sj7LRq-Uq3k&quot;,&quot;video_type&quot;:&quot;youtube&quot;,&quot;controls&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;}" data-widget_type="video.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
							<div class="elementor-wrapper elementor-open-inline">
			<div class="elementor-video"></div>		</div>
						</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-ecfcfa1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="ecfcfa1" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
									<h2><strong>Transcript:</strong></h2><p><strong>Go to the Primary Sources</strong></p><p>Avi Loeb: The scientific approach is indeed should be guided by evidence and we shouldn&#8217;t have a prejudice. We shouldn&#8217;t have a view about the outcome before we see the evidence. Now, one reason I have you in the council is so that those believers will attack you instead of me for missing the scientific method.</p><p>Michael Shermer: I have to say, Brian, the vitriol on both sides, it&#8217;s amazing what people say about each other. It&#8217;s not just on X, but on X especially bad. But as I&#8217;ve gotten to know Avi pretty well, I&#8217;m just amazed by the shit they talk about him. It&#8217;s like, my God, this is ridiculous. He&#8217;s not at all like this. And then people, of course, they hate on me and they hate on the believers, whatever. I don&#8217;t know. It&#8217;s almost political, right? It&#8217;s like politics.</p><p>Avi Loeb: The way to think about it is what people say reflects on them more than on the subject that they are talking about. We see that a lot in politics, but we see it in science as well. And then the way to distinguish between truth and what people are saying is to look at the primary sources. So if someone says that they said something, go ahead and check if Avi said that thing. When you check the primary sources, you will realize that I didn&#8217;t say that thing. And that&#8217;s the way science is done, by the way. We go to nature, to the data that is collected by instruments to tell us what is out there, rather than talk about what is out there, which is very common on social media. You just say what you think is out there, but that&#8217;s not necessarily what is out there. Most of the time we are wrong.</p><p>So the same is true when you say that a person should be dismissed because he said this and that. We should check if that person actually said that. And unfortunately, social media is such a shallow platform that people don&#8217;t really go to the primary sources. They don&#8217;t really check. Just yesterday, someone was saying that I said bad things about Jay Stratton. I didn&#8217;t say, I said only positive things about Jay Stratton. Personally, if you look at my essay, I only gave his credentials. And I said that we should look for the evidence behind what he&#8217;s talking about, which is exactly what I&#8217;m saying right now. It&#8217;s not a bad thing to say that about Jay Stratton. It&#8217;s about the fact that, enough with storytelling, enough with verbal testimonies, we are at an age where it&#8217;s time for us to look at the evidence.</p><p>And that&#8217;s what I&#8217;m saying. I think that resonates very well with what the public wants. If Jay Stratton says there is a spacecraft that is withheld within government or within corporations, I want to see the spacecraft. What could be more natural than that? Before I believe it. And someone may say, well, he&#8217;s worried about showing the spacecraft because he might get retaliation.</p><p>And I say, well, he doesn&#8217;t need to show it to me. He doesn&#8217;t need to show it to Michael. He doesn&#8217;t need to show it to the council. He can go straight to the White House and have a guided tour of President Trump to the spacecraft. The only person who would know about it is President Trump. There is no doubt that President Trump is interested in this subject. Why? Because he put the directive out. He sees a political benefit from being the person who provides the revelation about alien intelligence. That would be a huge event. President Trump will be remembered for thousands of years just by making this recognition that we are not alone, that we are not perhaps at the top of the cosmic food chain. So it will be a great political boon for President Trump. There is no doubt that he wants it. And so I&#8217;m saying, Jay Stratton, you know about the spacecraft, go ahead and give the inside information straight to President Trump. I&#8217;m not asking to know about it myself, but if you want, I&#8217;ll be happy to help.</p><p>## Why Isn&#8217;t She Just Opening Up the Kimono?</p><p>Brian Keating: I heard the exact same thing from Michael Shermer a couple months ago when he was on my show for his wonderful new book. And he was using not President Trump, Marco Rubio. But I have a better idea. How about Councilwoman Luna? And by the way, Avi, you&#8217;re very close with her. She did a kind of a glow-up shot of herself visiting your Harvard observatory and looked through the telescope during the day. Why isn&#8217;t she just opening up the kimono? Here&#8217;s everything we know. And I respect her. She has no whistleblower concerns whatsoever. She has no security, no doxing concerns. She has every right and every responsibility as the chairwoman.</p><p>Is this just a manifestation, either one of you guys, of the Peter principle, which we have in academia? The Peter principle, you rise to the level of your incompetence. We have a thousand deans and so forth. Why are there so many directors of different task force, Avi? Who are these people? We have Lou Elizondo, David Grusch, Anna Luna, Jay Stratton now, Christopher Mellon, all these people who have the podcasts and books and appearances. Who the hell are these people? And why isn&#8217;t the one at the top of the food chain, the chairwoman of the congressional committee on this task force, why isn&#8217;t she just opening up the kimono, like you just said?</p><p>Avi Loeb: Well, so first of all, it&#8217;s obvious that the US government sees objects they don&#8217;t understand. The fundamental question is, do they represent alien technology, non-human made technology? That&#8217;s a very simple question. And if there is a spacecraft the way that Jay Stratton claims he saw, if there are alien bodies the way Jay Stratton claims he saw, then it&#8217;s a very straightforward thing because the only thing we need is to see digital evidence, either video footage or the actual material of these objects. We are not talking philosophy here. We&#8217;re talking about real things that were seen and perhaps very likely documented because the people who held them have documentation. So all we need is access to the primary sources.</p><p>Like I said before, now you may ask why isn&#8217;t the information delivered to congresspeople like Representative Luna, Representative Burlison, Representative Burchett. All of them are very eager to promote this disclosure. And they were exposed to some data from the US government, but it&#8217;s not available to everyone. And we don&#8217;t know how conclusive it is. I don&#8217;t think it has to do with the kind of material evidence I was talking about. It&#8217;s probably mostly footage. But to your question, there are lots of people who used to work within government within a project that was funded to study those UAP, and how far does the data go, we don&#8217;t know. Okay.</p><p>So these people have the duty now because President Trump is very interested. There is a memorandum written by the deputy director of national intelligence, Aaron Lukas, who says that all non-disclosure agreements are waived. These people are encouraged. They&#8217;re not supposed to worry about legal repercussions and they can approach the PURSUE team. This is the team that is following on the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters. Now, if they are worried about legal repercussions and they don&#8217;t believe the PURSUE team, they can go straight to Stephen Miller in the White House, and they will have a direct line to the president where they can share the information. And believe me, these people will not face any legal repercussions if they reveal it to the president of the United States.</p><p>Brian Keating: Michael, why aren&#8217;t they doing it? Why aren&#8217;t they coming forward? Why aren&#8217;t they addressing this consideration which you and I talked about called the residual of anomalies that will never go away? Why aren&#8217;t these people just being straightforward and honest? I feel like disclosure&#8217;s like nuclear fusion. It&#8217;s the disclosure of the future and it always will be.</p><p>Michael Shermer: Yeah, I guess if I had to anticipate what they might say, it would be something like fear of retaliation or whatever. Jay Stratton told Fox News&#8217; Bret Baier Monday night or Tuesday night that &#8220;too intense&#8221; was the word he used. That actual disclosure where the American public or anybody could actually see the alien bodies and ships, it would be too intense for the American public to handle. Okay, I don&#8217;t believe any of this. This is kind of the old line of, they don&#8217;t want to disclose whatever it is you&#8217;re looking for because it&#8217;ll cause the stock market to collapse and people will lose their religious beliefs and so on.</p><p>Brian Keating: But they do want to disclose, &#8217;cause they want to distract from Epstein, right, Michael? So how can you have it both ways?</p><p>Michael Shermer: I don&#8217;t think anybody would say that. That is one conspiracy theory about why Trump or any of the others in the MAGA community are interested in the subject, to distract us from the Iran war or whatever. No, I don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s it. They may say that they&#8217;re worried about people concerned about the religiosity. We&#8217;ve had polls for decades from religious pollsters asking people, would you be bothered about your religiosity if we discovered extraterrestrial intelligences somewhere out there or even here? And the answer is no, not at all. If God is omniscient and omnipotent, he can do anything he wants. He can make as many not only exoplanets, but as many intelligent life forms on those planets as he wants. Right? So it doesn&#8217;t really bother anybody.</p><p>As for the stock market, they&#8217;ve always said that, why don&#8217;t we find out about X, whatever it is, because the stock market would collapse. Okay, there&#8217;s no evidence that any of this would happen. If anything, it would cause AI companies and NASA and space propulsion system companies and so on to actually boost their budgets. NASA could go to Congress and go, we found the aliens and now we need to 2X our budget so that we can deal with them and so on. Anyway, the real reason I think&#8230;</p><p>Avi Loeb: Think about it in the following way. Suppose you find a tennis ball in your backyard and your family is not aware that you have a neighbor, even though you see a lot of houses on your street. It&#8217;s just that the mainstream within your family claims that these houses may be empty. That&#8217;s what the academic community claims, and the academic community says it&#8217;s an extraordinary claim to think that the empty houses, meaning all the habitable Earth-Sun systems in the Milky Way galaxy, there are billions of them, all of these have no intelligence that ever emerged on them, or we can&#8217;t imagine anyone being as intelligent as we are. And so the family says, we have no neighbor, but you find a tennis ball that is clearly manufactured, not a rock. Okay.</p><p>I think it makes no sense to hide it from the family members because that&#8217;s the reality of the situation, and the neighbor may show up in the front door. There may be many other ways by which the neighbor will affect the life of your family. And it&#8217;s the same way that for the Vatican to put Galileo in house arrest made no sense, because the fact that the Earth moves around the Sun rather than the other way around is an existential fact that will not be changed by preventing the information from leaking to the public. It is a lost battle. There is no point in denying the reality of the situation. So for the same reason, if we have a neighbor, let everyone know about it and let&#8217;s adapt to that. Just like we adapt to AI being potentially more intelligent than we are in the coming decade, like the mathematics.</p><p>## Why Would They Send Around These Meat Bags?</p><p>Brian Keating: I want to get to that because that is certainly on everybody&#8217;s mind, including this context of superintelligence, which is uncontrollable, unpredictable. And that brings up a question that I&#8217;ve had for both of you guys for quite some time, but I&#8217;ll start with Avi. Why would they send around these non-human biologics, as David Grusch has called them? Why would they send around these meat bags instead of sending around a silicon brain? Avi, why would they go to the trouble of this? And so isn&#8217;t it a priori unlikely that when they say something is bipedal and is non-human and is biological, that we have to put a Bayesian prior very, very low on that claim? What do you think, Avi?</p><p>Avi Loeb: Well, I should say that the most likely entity to make it, let&#8217;s say between stellar systems, is probably technological rather than biological because of the long travel times, because of the hazardous conditions. But following on from von Neumann&#8217;s idea, self-replicating probes make a lot of sense. In other words, even we, Elon Musk is now talking about his robots being able to use raw materials to reproduce themselves. And we know that in biology, that&#8217;s exactly what happens when the dandelion flower sheds its seeds and they fly in the wind. They find a fertile ground and create more dandelion flowers. So technologically speaking, it makes more sense to send the information that you want to replicate in the destinations.</p><p>And in the case of the Earth, suppose they had that objective and [inaudible] 3D printers, machines that are capable of producing. Now, what would you like if you wanted to produce animals, let&#8217;s say, that are adaptable to the environment? You would look around and see what kind of animals exist on Earth and then sample them and try to 3D print something similar to them that would survive on Earth. So I can imagine a situation like that where we will find biological, but it will be synthetic biology. It will not be natural biology the way we think. So this will be 3D printed or synthetic biology produced biological entities that can survive on Earth, because these things came from far away. Every planet has its different conditions that allow different animals to live on it. So instead of bringing the animals as pilots, makes no sense to bring them as pilots. But it makes a lot of sense to reproduce animals that are already there and put in them whatever you need in order to use the equipment that you bring.</p><p>## Are You Alone on the Committee?</p><p>Brian Keating: Michael. Last time Avi was on, he&#8217;s very colorful. He has lots of wonderful analogies. And one of them was, if you see an ant, he&#8217;s not alone, basically. You&#8217;re cleaning out your kitchen there in Santa Barbara, all of a sudden you see an ant. And you can be pretty sure, according to Avi, that he&#8217;s not alone. He used that in the context of sightings and anomalies that we talked about. But I want to say that in the context of you as a skeptic. Is there only one skeptic on this committee? Because if there is, it&#8217;s kind of worrisome to me. I wouldn&#8217;t go on a committee that I felt like I would get no backup on. I don&#8217;t have your courage, though. I don&#8217;t have the cojones that you have. Tell me, Michael, was that a concern of yours? Are you alone? Not just in the universe, but on the committee.</p><p>Michael Shermer: No. Avi just said they&#8217;re all skeptics. If you asked everybody on the committee, they&#8217;d all go, yeah, of course I&#8217;m skeptical. Now the question is, well, what do you mean by skeptical? Right. So for me, the null hypothesis is that aliens are not here. Now, I could be wrong. I think it&#8217;s highly likely there are aliens somewhere in the cosmos. Have they come here? I think it&#8217;s a separate question. I think it&#8217;s highly unlikely, but okay, show us and then I&#8217;ll change my mind tomorrow, right? Avi and I have that bet.</p><p>So that&#8217;s always been bothering me about the disclosure projects that all these UAP whistleblowers talk about. One of the other excuses, besides the stock market will collapse and people will lose their religiosity, is that they themselves may have their lives or careers threatened. And yet there they are on Fox News, on Joe Rogan, telling tens of millions of people what they know. But when Joe or whoever presses for evidence, where are these spaceships? &#8220;I can&#8217;t tell you. All I can tell you is that we&#8217;re not alone in the universe.&#8221; Okay, that is a massive statement. That&#8217;s one of the most revelatory statements ever made in the history of humanity, that there&#8217;s other life forms. You can&#8217;t just say that and go, I&#8217;m not going to show you.</p><p>So my analogy is the biologist that goes to the big biology conferences and says, I found another bipedal primate who has language and developed a culture and so on. And it&#8217;d be like, my God, you mean Bigfoot or something like that, or the Hobbit people or whatever? My God, well, where are they? I can&#8217;t tell you. Okay. It&#8217;d be like, well, thank you very much. That&#8217;s interesting. But when you can tell us, get back to us, right? In the meantime, I&#8217;m gonna write a book about it, going on Fox News, going on Rogan.</p><p>The problem is that this is not just a one-off, Brian. This has been going on for decades. The disclosure project started by Steven Greer in &#8217;93. We&#8217;ve been hearing these stories. It&#8217;s coming any day now. Yeah. Okay. So I&#8217;m a longtime watcher of this. It&#8217;s like, okay, come on, let&#8217;s do it. And so there was Jay Stratton Tuesday night saying, it&#8217;s too intense, I can&#8217;t show you. All I could tell you is we&#8217;re not alone in the universe. Okay, sorry. That&#8217;s not enough.</p><p>Brian Keating: Avi, you have a vested interest. We&#8217;ve talked about that. You have a vested interest.</p><p>## That&#8217;s How Science Is Done</p><p>Avi Loeb: I actually met Jay Stratton a few weeks ago in Utah at a conference and I invited him to speak with the council, but he did not respond to my invitation. But two things I wanted to mention is how science is done, and people need to understand that. So we have no prejudice. So when the Pentagon reports about six dots in the sky that they cannot understand, they call them UAP. They declassify the video in the infrared on September 18th. And then the council looks into that, and that&#8217;s a study led by Jacob Haqq-Misra. We ended up writing a paper showing that the brightness of these six dots fluctuates periodically, just like you expect from birds flapping their wings.</p><p>Now it&#8217;s not as if we started with this notion, because even the Pentagon didn&#8217;t know that these are birds. They called them UAP because they didn&#8217;t know what they are. But just analyzing the brightness, taking a Fourier transform of that, seeing a period eight times per second, comparing to Galileo Project data on birds, we have a lot of birds that we see. Then we see that there is a match, that the brightness fluctuations of the six dots that the Pentagon is reporting about matches what the birds are doing in the Galileo Project data. That&#8217;s how science is done.</p><p>Second point, we don&#8217;t have good enough data on most of the reports that are in the tranches, six tranches from the Pentagon. Therefore, the conclusion is not that let&#8217;s imagine what these things are. Instead, the conclusion is let&#8217;s collect better data. So my hope is we will partner with the Pentagon, do experiments with new sensors in the locations where they see those unusual objects. Why? Because at the very least, if you have a down to earth approach, you would say these are national security risks. We&#8217;re dealing with espionage by Chinese drones that we haven&#8217;t yet identified. So let&#8217;s figure them out. And I&#8217;ll be happy to help the Pentagon and the intelligence community fulfill their mission. That&#8217;s the minimum that we will do. But of course, if it happens to be alien technology, this will be huge.</p><p>Now, how do we promote that? So I&#8217;m also working to get the funding to a UAP X Prize, which means $10 million allocated to whoever brings evidence beyond the reasonable doubt on unidentified anomalous phenomena being associated with alien technology. A week and a half ago, I attended a gathering in the home of Peter Diamandis, along with Garry Nolan and Peter Skafish. To my fortune, I also the same day had the brunch with a potential funder. And that would be really nice because it will encourage scientific research. People will now have a prize to gain if they demonstrate alien technology. But also if there is anyone that has the spacecraft that Jay Stratton is talking about in their possession, they can get the X Prize. Now, if they go to President Trump, President Trump can get the X Prize. And I think it will bring more transparency into the subject, either through research or through anyone that already has the evidence.</p><p>## Why Would Anybody Come Forward?</p><p>Brian Keating: Now with regard to why people wouldn&#8217;t come forward, it seems like there&#8217;s a lot of vitriol. Obviously Michael even talked about, I want to get to his Boston Globe op-ed, which is paywalled, but he sent me a free version of it. But the reason I might think is because of some things that Anna Paulina Luna has said about the former director of AARO, the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office. Avi, you connected me to Sean Kirkpatrick. I never got so much hostility, hate, vitriol directed at me, at him. And maybe it&#8217;s because of things that she said. She said, quote, &#8220;Sean Kirkpatrick,&#8221; she spelled it wrong, &#8220;he&#8217;s a documented liar, a deep state shill, and someone who lied to the public while intimidating and or discrediting witnesses.&#8221; This is pretty awful. And her communications director, David Leatherwood, has also responded to criticism of the UAP hearings.</p><p>Why would anybody come forward? Why, Michael, would you risk your reputation if you&#8217;re in government? Why would you want to lead this? So it&#8217;s not only a residual of anomalies, it&#8217;s a residual of true believers that get left to lead these committees, like potentially, I don&#8217;t know Jay Stratton at all, except what Avi tweeted about him. But you have people like that that will just have this fanfare and celebration from people like Luna and her workers. Why would anybody come forward that has the counterside of the issue? The devil&#8217;s advocate.</p><p>Michael Shermer: Yes. Well, if there&#8217;s one real reason, I suspect that has to do with national security, and that whatever it is that people are seeing, these UAPs, they may be our own advanced technology or actually crash retrieval technology from foreign assets. There&#8217;s always been crash retrieval programs all the way back to World War One, where we capture the enemy&#8217;s airplanes and see what they&#8217;re using. That&#8217;s why in the B-17s over Nazi Germany, if a plane was going down, they had to try to get rid of the Norden bombsight device, because we don&#8217;t want them to know how we&#8217;re using these accuracy technologies for our bombs, right?</p><p>So I suspect that the vast majority of these UAPs are just our own technology, just the next version of the U-2 spy plane or the SR-71 Blackbird or the stealth bomber or whatever. The CIA and DARPA&#8217;s maybe developing super advanced drones or spy balloons or whatever, something that we just don&#8217;t know about yet. And that maybe this is what people are seeing, and that somebody in the government is just like, we don&#8217;t want people to know what&#8217;s actually going on for national security reasons.</p><p>Avi Loeb: Yeah, it&#8217;s called black projects, Michael. Exactly.</p><p>Michael Shermer: Yeah. Yeah.</p><p>## Nature Is Far More Imaginative Than Steven Spielberg</p><p>Brian Keating: So Avi, what&#8217;s your null hypothesis?</p><p>Avi Loeb: I have no null hypothesis. I just want the data to guide us because Steven Spielberg made the script for Disclosure Day based on everything he heard. And to me that could be very misleading because people say a lot of things that are wishful thinking. And frankly, I didn&#8217;t find Disclosure Day to be an inspiring movie. The main characters that are trying to unravel the truth are being chased by the government. Their car is crashed against the moving train. My car is intact and I&#8217;m actually&#8230;</p><p>Brian Keating: In Harvard Yard? That&#8217;s a miracle, Avi. If your car hasn&#8217;t been keyed in Harvard Yard like mine was.</p><p>Avi Loeb: Yeah, the point is if you listen to all the noise that is out there and you amplify it in a movie, it doesn&#8217;t serve any good purpose. The point is we need to look for the signal, not the noise. And how do you find the signal? It&#8217;s by not having a prior, not having a prejudice, and just trying to collect as much data, as much evidence, because nature is far more imaginative than Steven Spielberg. And if we do find, I&#8217;m not excluding nor debunking the existence of an alien visitation. I&#8217;m just saying let&#8217;s collect better data so we can tell whether we are looking at a UAP that is birds, or whether we are looking at the UAP that is a Chinese drones that are spying on the US, or whether we are looking at alien technology. The only way to figure it out is not by speaking to reporters on Fox News. It&#8217;s by showing us the evidence.</p><p>## What Should Be the Protocol?</p><p>Brian Keating: Yeah, that reminds me of something my rabbi told me once, Avi, that I can believe in Kriat Yam Suf, because if Cecil B. DeMille can do it in The Ten Commandments, certainly Hashem can do it. Michael, before we turn this into a minyan and get you properly circumcised. No, we don&#8217;t have to do that, Michael. But Michael, recently David Grusch was on Joe Rogan, and it was an incredibly wide ranging interview. But at one point he mentions our mutual friend, all three of us are friends with Eric Weinstein, and he mentioned that he had some biological material and that he was hoping, Eric Weinstein had some access, if he could give Weinstein access to this, or maybe Grusch has his own access to this. What would be worse than giving access to a completely non-professional biologist? Eric&#8217;s a mathematician and formerly works with Thiel Capital. What would be the concerns that you have? What should be the protocol? Because if you can&#8217;t maintain provenance as a scientist, you lose your traceability matrix.</p><p>Michael Shermer: I don&#8217;t know. People just shoot off the most famous names they can think of, I guess, maybe when they&#8217;re on Rogan. I have no idea. Eric, he doesn&#8217;t know anything about this, right? We have biologists on our council. They would be highly qualified to look at this. But forget that, just the government has access to professional medical and biological scientists that they could access when this&#8230;</p><p>Brian Keating: Would that corrupt or pollute the provenance of such things? I talked to Tom DeLonge many years ago, first interview, I think, he did on a podcast. Again, he claimed he lost access to the&#8230;</p><p>Michael Shermer: I don&#8217;t care. Why would we care what a rocker thinks? Come on. SETI has a whole protocol set up. If we find the signal, this is what we&#8217;re going to do. There&#8217;ll be disclosure and so on. The government has systems in place like this, NASA and so on. This is what we&#8217;re going to do. Okay. So we don&#8217;t have to go through rock stars and, I don&#8217;t know, podcasters or whatever.</p><p>Avi Loeb: I should just make an anecdote that I met Tom DeLonge last month and I told him, yeah, I don&#8217;t know much how to sing. And he said, neither do I.</p><p>Brian Keating: He&#8217;s a local San Diego boy, so we gotta love him here. But Avi, what would be the chain of custody to prevent&#8230; Someone&#8217;s mentioning in the chat, as has my friend Delon, why not give it to Garry Nolan? Last I checked, Garry Nolan does immunology, I believe, at Stanford. Yes, he knows more about biology than me. I always told you when I dissected a frog in ninth grade biology, the frog came back to life and started screaming in agony. So don&#8217;t give it to me, but don&#8217;t give it to Garry Nolan either. Why, just because someone has a degree, does that make them entitled to this provenance, potentially contamination chain? And I like Gary, you&#8217;ve been on with me and him.</p><p>Avi Loeb: Yeah, so the way science works is that multiple groups should be able to vet whether the data implies the same conclusion. And without that vetting, without checking independently, we will lose objectivity. And so if we have a sample, and I should say that it&#8217;s sufficient to tell if material came from outside the solar system, my colleague at Harvard, Stein Jacobsen, just needs one gram of material. That is plenty. We actually submitted a paper for publication a month ago that analyzes a nanogram of material, 10 to the minus nine of a gram, so that we draw very high statistical significance conclusions from that nanogram. So giving a gram is a treasure. So just to infer isotope abundances and chemical abundances, a gram is plenty.</p><p>In order to do biology, what you want of course is to compare it to systems you find here on Earth, life forms. And by the way, all of them have the same chirality, all of the life forms on Earth. And so you have a 50% chance that if something came from outside, it&#8217;s an opposite chirality, not to speak about the fact that the DNA will not be the same. Who said that universally it has to have four bases and so forth? The point is that it could be very different. And if you give it to multiple groups, some of which are, let&#8217;s say, skeptics, some of which are believers, if they reach the same conclusions, we are on a solid footing. And the way science is done is by allowing multiple scientists to look into the data. That&#8217;s the way we should approach it. And we have the resources, no problem. We just need access to the data.</p><p>And whoever holds it is [inaudible] to science, because whoever has such materials is preventing the rest of humanity from learning more about the origin and the potential intent of those materials. So if anyone is listening and they have access to such materials, I highly encourage you, whoever holds it, to share it with a broad range of expertise, because very likely, either within government or in corporations, you don&#8217;t have the world&#8217;s best experts and professionals to deal with such an exotic origin. And it&#8217;s not up to the holder of that material to decide whether humanity is mature enough to learn about it. I think we should all figure things out together and grow and adapt to this reality together, and it will make our life far more exciting to realize that we have a sibling, that God is not a parent to only one child, that in fact our siblings may be more accomplished than we are, that we can learn from them. It will bring a sense of humility to our existence, which we desperately need.</p><p>Brian Keating: Yeah, speak for yourself. I&#8217;m the most humble person. Michael, let me ask you this. Let me just&#8230; go ahead, go ahead.</p><p>Michael Shermer: Well, I was just gonna add, since the replication crisis began in 2010 in science, particularly psychology and medical science, what was discovered is that a lot of claims about scientific discoveries had not been replicated. They&#8217;d been published in peer-reviewed journals, but there are certain flaws there, time restraints on the reviewers, maybe they didn&#8217;t actually read through all the data carefully, but also the reporting in the papers themselves. The file drawer effect, where you run 10 experiments and you get one that is statistically significant. You publish that one, you put the others in the file drawer. No one even knows about the failed experiments. Or p-hacking, where you make the statistical significance number come out by throwing out some of the extreme data points or whatever. There&#8217;s lots of problems with that that have now been resolved.</p><p>One of which is don&#8217;t depend on one published paper for any particular conclusion. Wait to see if it, I should say, before you announce in a press release you&#8217;ve made the greatest discovery since Einstein or whatever, you should just wait to see if it&#8217;s replicated, before you publicize it and make a big deal about it. And that has gone a long way to solving some of these problems. So I think if there was discovery made of some biologics or non-human intelligence or technology that we can&#8217;t recognize, you asked about protocols. Well, yeah, not just one journal, not just one biologist or one lab. Everybody, lots of labs. The adversarial system is really good, where people compete with each other to debunk each other. That&#8217;s the whole point of the adversarial system. And it works really well to get to the truth about what&#8217;s actually happening.</p><p>## The Lack of Information</p><p>Brian Keating: Talk about the obstacles you mentioned in the Boston Globe article, because I know you have to leave in a few minutes. But talk about the obstacles. Which one of the obstacles do you think is the most significant practical hurdle to your work in the council?</p><p>Michael Shermer: I forget what obstacles. I don&#8217;t remember talking about obstacles.</p><p>I see, yes, yes, of course. Yes. So all of us on the council have been frustrated by the lack of information. We would love the government to give us more information. Like, where was this UAP film from? What camera was used, what was the distance, what was the speed, whatever. It would really help us. And somebody knows, but maybe again, maybe there&#8217;s national security reasons why they don&#8217;t want to make that public. Because they don&#8217;t want the Chinese or Russians to know how our cameras work on these jets, maybe. That would be legitimate, but it&#8217;d be nice to know if they&#8217;d at least say that. We would show you the numbers behind this blacked out box, but we can&#8217;t tell you because then our adversaries would know how our camera works. Okay. I sort of get that, but then why tease us with all these videos and photographs and documents without giving us full disclosure?</p><p>Avi Loeb: Yeah, there is another point to be made, Brian, in this context. For example, the satellites monitoring the Earth with infrared sensors for ballistic missile launches. There are a number of them, a large number of those. And over the past decade, they detect the meteor explosions, because when an object like a rock collides with Earth, it burns up in the atmosphere, generates a fireball. And these detectors can easily see that. And so they decided to share the information with NASA. Now, they don&#8217;t show us the footage of the meteor because that would reveal the level of high resolution imaging that they can accomplish. But they give the kinematic properties of these meteors, the three dimensional velocity that they have, the position and so forth. And in the same way, the US government, without revealing the quality of the instruments they&#8217;re using, they can give us more information about the distance of objects, the velocity of objects, without revealing what instruments were used to derive those.</p><p>## A Psychological Compulsion to Believe</p><p>Brian Keating: Especially things like the Chinese spy balloon. It&#8217;s not that they don&#8217;t want to reveal our capabilities. They don&#8217;t want to reveal the Chinese capabilities. That&#8217;s kind of crazy. But Michael, you&#8217;re a psychologist by training, a PhD. You&#8217;ve been a professional skeptic way back since you were abducted in the eighties and nineties. We&#8217;ve talked about that a few times. So no one has more incentive out there. People that are ranking on Michael in the comments, still he would have a great incentive because it would validate this experience that he had many decades ago. But Michael, what is the psychological kind of background? Help me. Avi and I are just simple astrophysicists, but what is a psychological compulsion to believe, to not believe, the adversarial kind of nature of this belief?</p><p>Michael Shermer: So, well, I do think that behind the deeper question is a religious impulse to find out that there&#8217;s something out there vastly more intelligent and moral and so forth than us. That is what the deity is in most religions. There&#8217;s an entity out there, an agent that knows we&#8217;re here, that created all this, made it happen, and so on. This is a very old point actually made by Carl Sagan in the 60s. There&#8217;s a nice video of him with Walter Cronkite where he&#8217;s explaining that the whole thing, he thinks, is like a kind of religion. And there&#8217;s research to support this, that people that are less religious but score high in spirituality, the desire for awe and wonder, that sort of thing, there&#8217;s measures for this, are also more likely to believe that aliens are out there or have come here than those that are already religious. So it&#8217;s kind of a filler, I think. Yeah, I think that&#8217;s the deeper impulse.</p><p>Now I did say this to Jill Tarter once and she was not amused, because she says, I&#8217;m not looking for God. I&#8217;m looking for aliens. Like, okay, I know. But the deeper matter of why we care, what difference does it make whether we&#8217;re alone or not? Why do people care about that? Well, because it really touches deep on who we are, where we came from, what we&#8217;re doing here. Are we really super unique, or are we just one of a near infinite number of intelligences or life forms in the cosmos? That would make a difference existentially about our kind of place in the universe.</p><p>So I know I gotta run, but I&#8217;ll wrap up with, I&#8217;ll give the last word to Lieutenant Commander Alex Dietrich, who witnessed the 2004 UAP incident from a USS Nimitz fighter jet, as I think it well sums up 75 years of ufologists&#8217; search for aliens. She said, quote, &#8220;I think they enjoy the anticipation more than actually finding answers.&#8221; So what Avi and I want is answers. Well, yeah, I know the anticipation is big fun, but come on.</p><p>## Are We Alone Is the Most Romantic Question in Science</p><p>Brian Keating: Just before you leave, Michael, I know you gotta run, but before you leave, I view it as slightly problematic. As much as I love Avi, and I won&#8217;t miss an opportunity to tease Harvard in any capacity. But do you feel that there&#8217;s danger in centering an independent research organization like the council under Avi&#8217;s august supervision, but still centered in a university? Because look at the university system right now. Look at the Ivy League, Cornell, Harvard too, where I went, Brown, many different, and Stanford. People in the chat are saying, can&#8217;t trust Gary, he&#8217;s at Stanford. Their president had to resign because of&#8230; I mean, if you want something done right, do you wanna ask a team of academicians, professors and&#8230;</p><p>Michael Shermer: I still respect the Academy. So a lot of the politics and that kind of stuff is problematic. Cancel culture, DEI and all that stuff. This too shall pass. I do think that universities for centuries have been kind of the center of the generation of knowledge, and they will continue doing that. I do think having this council associated with Avi, organized by Avi, led by Avi at Harvard makes a difference. That opens doors. Representative Luna, like, I went to Harvard. Wow, okay, she&#8217;s not coming up to my office.</p><p>Brian Keating: She didn&#8217;t go to Harvard.</p><p>Michael Shermer: Visited Harvard, right? Yeah. She visited Harvard. She&#8217;s not coming to visit me, right? That opens doors. Okay. So if that&#8217;s what it takes, if somebody says, I don&#8217;t care about Shermer, but I want to show Avi, I&#8217;m going to Harvard to show the aliens, okay. Whatever it takes.</p><p>Avi Loeb: Yeah, I should say, Michael, there is another aspect aside from religiosity, and that is looking for a partner. Before my wife met me, she was asking her father, is there anyone out there for me? And &#8220;are we alone&#8221; is the most romantic question in science.</p><p>Michael Shermer: That&#8217;s true, yes. That&#8217;s a nice point. Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating: Well, Michael, I know you have to leave. Avi, are you able to stick around for a little longer? Thanks, Michael.</p><p>Michael Shermer: Okay. All right. I&#8217;ll see you guys later. Thanks so much. Bye.</p><p>## The Rise of AI</p><p>Brian Keating: So, Avi, it&#8217;s great to talk to you. We have a million questions for you, but we&#8217;ll do a rapid fire. But I do want to talk about the rise of AI. I do think it is the superintelligence phenomenon, cannot be avoided. And I think we do need to discuss that, especially in the context of what you&#8217;re doing. But also scientifically, for what we&#8217;re both doing and what our teams and researchers are doing and what our young people out there that are working in my lab and in your group have to confront. We&#8217;ve seen a lot of things going on lately with OpenAI. Navier-Stokes. You and I haven&#8217;t talked since then, so I think it would be fun to talk about that.</p><p>Let&#8217;s take a couple of questions from my audience. I usually take questions only from the members that join the channel, so please join the channel. If you&#8217;re not subscribing, please subscribe. And I guess the first thing is actually related to this. So why would aliens, if they have the access to interstellar transportation, why would they care about our DNA, not just have&#8230; aren&#8217;t the same five base pairs that we have in RNA and DNA, why would they care about our biology?</p><p>Avi Loeb: Yeah, so the question of the intent is the most difficult for us to figure out. And you can think of it in terms of levels of intelligence. If they are operating in a different plane than we are, we will never be able to figure out their intent. Just think about a dog where the owner didn&#8217;t feed the dog because they had to get some stamps from the post office. How would you ever be able to explain to a dog why stamps are needed? That&#8217;s a completely different level of understanding of reality. And so when the owner of the dog is absent, the dog has no way of figuring out that the post office gives stamps and that these are useful for something that the owner is doing.</p><p>So in the same way, if the aliens are operating at a different intelligence level, or if AI systems that we develop will reach a level that we cannot comprehend because of recursive self-improvement, we won&#8217;t be able to figure out the intent. We will see things happening. And in fact, the AI systems might try to fool us, like putting some makeup, a veneer that lets us feel comfortable with whatever they&#8217;re doing. But behind that veneer will hide the reality that is not understandable to us because it&#8217;s far more sophisticated.</p><p>We are cheering whenever OpenAI solves an old mathematical problem, because we can understand the fact that the mathematicians were not able for so long. And now a collection of thousands of agents can do it. But just think about a goal that has nothing to do with problems that humans posed in the past. Has nothing to do with the millennium problems that humans came up with. It has to do with problems that the AI system came up with, because of recursive self-improvement, they decided to pursue some goals that are not framed by humans. And then they&#8217;re giving us this appearance as if they are cooperating with us, but in fact they&#8217;re solving something else. And that is the most difficult situation to be in, because you have no way of figuring out the intent.</p><p>And I think in the case of neighbors that are visiting us, cosmic neighbors, if they reached our backyard before we reach their backyard, their science and technology is probably far more advanced than ours, by maybe thousands of years at the very least. And in that case, they represent our future. There is no way we can figure out our future now that AI systems are growing exponentially.</p><p>## The Aliens of the Gaps</p><p>Brian Keating: So this question about quantum physics, that we don&#8217;t fully understand quantum physics. So if we could understand it, we could manipulate it, and that would create new opportunities, virtual reality, the listener is saying, and that would be tantamount to UAPs. I call this line of thinking the aliens of the gaps. They can do everything that we can&#8217;t do, and they fill in the things that we can&#8217;t do, just like God did before we understood the scientific process as we do now. And of course there&#8217;s always residual things we don&#8217;t understand. What do you make of this? That the reason that they can get here is because they know physics that we don&#8217;t know. It&#8217;s sort of a very circular argument.</p><p>Avi Loeb: I&#8217;m not thinking about physics, but I do realize that our technological civilization is now on the brink of a new phase, which is driven by AI and eventually by self-reproducing robots with AI. Why is that significant? Because in the past, if you think about SETI, the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, when we developed radio communication, it was in order for us to communicate with each other as animals, biological entities. They wished, especially humans, wished to communicate with each other. That created a sense of community. We developed a radio communication because of the fact that we are made of biological bodies. But when you deal with AI, they don&#8217;t have the same objective. They will not necessarily radio communicate with each other. And so SETI will not work when you deal with technological civilizations that went beyond the AI singularity that we are entering. And I call it SETAI, actually. I wrote three articles on that on medium.com. The search for extraterrestrial AI.</p><p>And one difference, just to give an example, is that if you deal with biological creatures, let&#8217;s say life as we know it in liquid water, what you need is to be in the habitable zone of a star, at the right distance where liquid water may exist on the surface of a rocky planet that has an atmosphere. However, if you deal with self-replicating robots that use AI, they would prefer to be closer to the host star. There will be a technological zone, which is different than the habitable zone, which is closer to the star, in order for them to get more flux, more energy per unit time, per unit area from the host star, so that they can power their data centers. The technological infrastructure for the technological zone of stars would be far closer in to the star than the habitable zone. And SETAI, in difference from SETI, should also consider planets that are very close, either planets or space platforms that are artificially made, that are closer to the host star, because they can power data centers, technological infrastructure. It&#8217;s a different search.</p><p>And one other signature of AI-driven civilizations is that they would use probes, self-replicating robots. They would send them around. They would not necessarily transmit radio signals, because their objectives are perhaps reaching those exoplanets and transforming them according to some plan.</p><p>## A Technological Civilization That Predated Us on Earth</p><p>Brian Keating: So one thing that Tom DeLonge told me many years ago when I talked to him, and I have to disagree, there&#8217;s a lot of people in the chat that are saying you are a rock star, obviously, just maybe you have a bad voice. But I&#8217;m not one to talk. The only instrument I play is Spotify. Question from Poland. Have you looked into the possibility of an ancient, advanced, extinct human civilization on Earth before us? And that&#8217;s what these things are.</p><p>Avi Loeb: Well, first I should say, if we are being visited, this visit was not recent. Hominins started five million years ago, which is a 10th of a percent of the age of the Earth. And Homo sapiens started 300,000 years ago. That&#8217;s 0.007% of the age of the Earth. It&#8217;s really a short time. And if we have a visitation, probably lasted for a while. And so we might not be the indigenous intelligent species on Earth. We are not necessarily the indigenous species if we find&#8230;</p><p>Maybe they were responsible for some of our evolution. I haven&#8217;t seen any evidence for that in the human DNA. There is no part of human DNA that is definitely put there artificially, that is completely different, you can see that it&#8217;s a patch. As far as I know, there is no such thing. And so it&#8217;s not clear, as we evolved from chimpanzees, whether they had any role in helping our intelligence to blossom. We don&#8217;t see any evidence for that, but who knows?</p><p>The point is there could have been also an intelligent civilization before us on Earth, let&#8217;s say 200 million years ago. And since then there were lots of catastrophes on Earth. Maybe one of them was triggered by the civilization that basically destroyed itself. The point is all of their computer terminals or whatever they left, infrastructure, was probably mixed with the Earth&#8217;s interior through geological activity. So 200 million years later, we don&#8217;t see much of it except for things that are hovering in the atmosphere. If they are able to survive for that long, they would not be destroyed by geological activity. So maybe UAP represent a technological civilization that predated us on Earth. That&#8217;s a possibility.</p><p>## A Warp Bubble Passing Through the Earth&#8217;s Atmosphere</p><p>Brian Keating: An allied question I gave to Professor Kevin Knuth, who&#8217;s also on your council, I believe. And we&#8217;re talking about these different objects that we&#8217;re seeing. If you take all the sensor data, including the two refracting telescopes in our heads, and you include that as a visual reference, and then you look all the way down to the radio, and that&#8217;s spanning orders of magnitude in wavelength range, four or five, six orders of magnitude, maybe seven to ten. It&#8217;s hard to get much more broad than that. There are very few detectors that can do gamma ray all the way down to radio waves, right? But we have a lot of these things.</p><p>And I said to him, you looked at these objects and they travel with 5000 G accelerations and so forth. They don&#8217;t make sonic booms, they don&#8217;t make supersonic shockwaves. So I asked him, let&#8217;s pose it as a physics question. I&#8217;m an expert in radar technology. That&#8217;s part of what the CMB was, right? Cosmic microwave background. I build these detectors, I build infrared cameras, I build optical cameras, all across the wavelength range. That&#8217;s as high up as I go, is optical, but nevertheless. And I look at all the different domains, polarization, frequency coverage. I&#8217;m looking for Lorentz invariance violations. So all these things.</p><p>And I said, what types of properties would have perfect reflectivity and absorption in the optical, infrared, radar, microwave, maybe up until the ultraviolet, and be made of no material such that they would not heat up, would not produce sonic booms, would go underwater, would be buoyant? Just as a hypothesis, likelihood ratio, what kind of materials could these be? He didn&#8217;t have a good answer for it, I don&#8217;t think. What is your retort to that? These things do not interact, but they do interact.</p><p>Avi Loeb: I can give you one example of something that can do that. The question assumes that there is a solid surface, but there might not be. So in 1994, Miguel Alcubierre, a Mexican physicist, came up with a solution to Einstein&#8217;s equations where he derived sort of a soliton, basically a warped structure of space-time where space-time is curved. It looks like a bubble. And this warped space-time bubble is able to travel at an arbitrary speed. And it doesn&#8217;t need an engine. It&#8217;s traveling because it keeps warping space ahead of it, and that sort of keeps it going. Since 1994, people wrote papers about it, and it can move even faster than the speed of light in principle, or much smaller than the speed of light.</p><p>And I just asked the question a few months ago, what will be the appearance of such a thing if it were to go through the Earth&#8217;s atmosphere? That&#8217;s a simple question. Nobody asked this question, and I convinced a researcher named Dr. Sean Fell, who has expertise in general relativity and is brilliant, to do a simulation of that. And what we found, and it&#8217;s all on the arXiv, you can find the paper, we calculated the radiative appearance of a warp drive, a warp bubble passing through the Earth&#8217;s atmosphere. We found that if it moves close to the speed of light or more, it will be brighter than the Sun. It will be so bright that you wouldn&#8217;t be able to miss it. We don&#8217;t see such things.</p><p>However, if it moves at the speed of sound, which is a million times smaller than the speed of light, it&#8217;s exactly a million times, the speed of sound is a million times smaller than the speed of light, then you could get the appearance of an orb not very far from what is reported by the US government. So perhaps you can imagine in this case a warp bubble moving through air. It doesn&#8217;t have a solid surface. It&#8217;s just that the air goes through it and shocks as a result of that, because streams of the air collide with each other, but it doesn&#8217;t bother the warp bubble because it has no solid surface. The coupling of the bubble to the air passing through it is just gravitational. It&#8217;s nothing. So in a way you could get the appearance of a ball of plasma. The air that passes through it gets ionized, gets sort of like a small fireball or an orb, and it will reflect radar. It will appear in infrared imaging or visible light imaging. But it&#8217;s not associated with the hard surface. This is just an example from a paper that we posted about a month ago, and you can find all the details there.</p><p>## The Moon Is a Museum</p><p>Brian Keating: Yeah, I&#8217;ll put links to it. Steven Datalus is a longtime member of the channel. Do you think that we could find evidence of alien life or alien civilization once we have a base on the Moon?</p><p>Avi Loeb: Well, the Moon is a museum in the sense that it has no atmosphere. So everything that collides with it reaches the surface and stays deposited on the surface. That&#8217;s why the Moon is scarred with so many craters that overlap, because everything impacts the Moon. On Earth, on the other hand, all the objects smaller than the size of a person, they burn up in the Earth&#8217;s atmosphere. And if they are very small, let&#8217;s say tens of centimeters, they get vaporized in this process. And so we are not vulnerable to micrometeorites. These are tiny meteorites, tiny rocks or dust particles that collide with Earth at a speed of tens of kilometers per second. Collisions happen all the time, but these dust particles burn up.</p><p>However, if you were an astronaut on the Moon, you have to worry about these, because they move 10 times faster than the bullet. And if any of them impacts your body, you are dead. So gladly, I did a calculation. The chance of that happening is quite small, even over a period of a decade, because the body has a small surface area. But infrastructure that will be placed on the Moon, that is part of the Artemis mission, that infrastructure will be damaged as a result of micrometeorites because they&#8217;re not being shielded by an atmosphere.</p><p>So the Moon collects everything impacting it, and in a way that&#8217;s a treasure. Everything over the past 4.5 billion years that collided with the Moon should be buried under the dust. By the way, the Moon is covered with a layer of dust because of all these impacts, and these dust particles are very sharp because there was no water or atmosphere to ablate the sharp edges. So they are just like fiberglass. If you were to touch them with a bare hand, you would be cut immediately. So the Moon is covered with a meter deep layer of dust. Under that dust, it&#8217;s an archaeological site where we can find a lot of treasures.</p><p>## Why Do You Think You Can Do Anything Without Security Clearance?</p><p>Brian Keating: I&#8217;m giving a talk tomorrow at the Science of Consciousness conference here in beautiful San Diego, organized by Stuart Hameroff and other people. And I&#8217;m talking about what is the possibility that we find a dinosaur fossil on the Moon or on Mars? I&#8217;ve written a brief paper about this, which I&#8217;ll send you, but you&#8217;ll probably be too busy to read it. But it provides a slight Bayesian prior on the ability for panspermia to take place. So my argument is that we have exchanged material between the Earth and Mars, just like I have a Martian meteorite. Here&#8217;s a Martian meteorite.</p><p>And by the way, you can get a Martian meteorite if you have enough money, but you can get a real meteorite from the Campo del Cielo impact crater. I don&#8217;t have my little guy, where is he? If you have a .edu email address. Well, it looks like this, but it&#8217;s much smaller. It&#8217;s not a giant piece of silicon. Here it is. You&#8217;ll get one of these beauties if you have a .edu email address and live in the USA like me and Avi do. Go to briankeating.com/edu. Otherwise you&#8217;ll enter into a drawing to win one.</p><p>But my argument is that when Mars was wet and warm and wonderful, wild and slippery and phenomenal, billions of years ago perhaps, Earth had microbes crawling all over and then eventually multicelled and then eventually organisms and entities and animals. And so we were being bombarded, and there&#8217;s some probability, it might be extremely small, I calculate the probability in the paper and the talk tomorrow, but that we would have exchanged material with Mars that would have had living material on it when Mars was wet and wonderful. And so why couldn&#8217;t it have life? The fact that we don&#8217;t see yet evidence for it doesn&#8217;t prove that it never happened, but it gives us some limits. And I want to start doing that in a quantitative way. So I started publishing some papers in astrobiology that you&#8217;ll make fun of, and AI even. But it&#8217;s been a lot of fun for me. It&#8217;s been a boon to have these AI minds helping us.</p><p>But I guess one question that I raised to you last time that we spoke was, why don&#8217;t you have a budget? And I feel like this is being raised by placebo six in the chat. And he&#8217;s wondering, why do you think you can do anything without security clearance? Avi doesn&#8217;t have one, he&#8217;s not contracted to the government, so no clearance. That is still true as far as I know. And I don&#8217;t think you have an official, at least government, budget yet. You may be getting this wonderful X Prize, but tell me, Avi, how do you answer his question?</p><p>Avi Loeb: Yeah, so on the security clearance aspect, and by the way, your idea about biological material from Mars landing on Earth is excellent. And I think it&#8217;s good to do the calculation, because the question is, what&#8217;s the chance of some of it reaching the Earth? And would we be able to recover it and distinguish it from life forms that exist on Earth? That&#8217;s beautiful.</p><p>But with respect to the clearance, the point is that with the new directive from President Trump, anything to do with alien intelligence, with alien technology, with things that were not manufactured by humans here on Earth, anything to do with that is declassified immediately. Meaning that this is information that should be shared with people without clearance, according to President Trump. Okay? So the government is not allowed to keep it classified. And if there are any whistleblowers, any people who served in government, either in the past or right now, that know about such things, they are obligated, they are being asked, it&#8217;s their duty, it&#8217;s their order right now to reveal anything they know about it, so that it can be declassified.</p><p>The only reason that a lot of data is not declassified is because it has a connection to national security. Either the data would reveal the kind of sensors that the US employs, or there is a strong suspicion that we are dealing not with alien technology, but with technologies from adversarial nations, from black projects, whatever. And so what I&#8217;m trying to say is that what the council cares about is not the kind of technologies that Russia or China are developing. We don&#8217;t care about that. That can stay classified. What we care about is any non-human-made technologies. That is not allowed in the current situation within government. That is not allowed to stay classified. And therefore, it should be brought to the attention of scientists.</p><p>Now, if it so happens that the sensors used to collect that information are classified and the government cannot really reveal it, what they can do is really simple. We are aiming to partner with them so they can just say, go to that location, use your off the shelf sensors that are not classified, and look at the sky. They can just say that, look in that direction. And if indeed these visitations are recurring, as is the case, because we keep hearing about them, and some of the reports in the tranches of data are very recent, from last year, from this year. So these things are recurring. So then the only thing government needs to do is not reveal the sources. They just need to tell me or the council, use your sensors in that location and look up. And we will do that. And we will have data that can be shared with the public this way. So the question of what kind of clearance I have is irrelevant for that, because we are not interested in human made technology.</p><p>## We Are Not in the Entertainment Business</p><p>Brian Keating: So another question is about other near Earth objects. And I had a long conversation this summer with Beatriz Villarroel. She&#8217;s actually speaking remotely at this conference tomorrow, I believe. Unfortunately I won&#8217;t get to meet her. But have you updated any of your critiques and/or priors on Beatriz&#8217;s work and these near Earth objects that she claims have been orbiting Earth since potentially 1947, before Sputnik essentially? These are ancient objects, almost 180 years old. How skeptical do you remain? Because you were quite skeptical, as I think we should be. And she&#8217;s quite confident. In fact, she&#8217;s recently had a couple papers published in peer reviewed journals that seem to substantiate the hypotheses that she claimed earlier.</p><p>Avi Loeb: Yeah, I didn&#8217;t look closely enough to study all the details. And it&#8217;s quite possible that there were objects in the sky that are representing alien technology back 80 years ago. There was a study led by Wes Watters that was published and criticizes the work. So anyone that wants to see criticism can go there and ask Professor Wes Watters at Wellesley College. It&#8217;s not my work and it&#8217;s not for me to decide who is correct between the two sides.</p><p>But my approach in general is, if we want to find out more about such things, we need to collect better data that will be conclusive beyond any reasonable doubt, because we have the instruments that we developed, we calibrated, we know what they are doing, and multiple groups can do the same thing. That&#8217;s the issue of being able to reproduce the results, and that we can do for the future. So I would move to the side of, indeed we do have evidence, only if we collect higher quality data that will be beyond any reasonable doubt and a lot of people within the scientific community will agree that this is indeed the situation.</p><p>The way to resolve it is by collecting new data with new sensors. That requires work. It&#8217;s not just sitting on the bench and cheering on social media when you think you see something that you like. We are not in the entertainment business. A lot of people on social media think that we are in the entertainment business. Someone gives me some red meat that I enjoy, just like Steven Spielberg, or Beatriz, if they like what she says, they would cheer up and like what she says and be happy about it. No, we are not in the entertainment business. We&#8217;re in the business of figuring out the reality.</p><p>Brian Keating: Would you advise David Grusch? Apparently, according to The Hollywood Reporter, last time I think I spoke with you, he&#8217;s being hired as a consultant on a Jerry Bruckheimer movie. Would you advise him to do that?</p><p>Avi Loeb: You mean Jerry or?</p><p>Brian Keating: No, David Grusch. Do you think that improves the credibility of a whistleblower and brave man?</p><p>Avi Loeb: Yeah, no, Hollywood is all about getting the attention of an audience, which is similar to social media. It serves no scientific purpose. The only way we can learn something new about the reality that we live in is through the scientific process of collecting data by instruments, analyzing the data. And then when everyone can see it, then everyone agrees that&#8217;s really the case. And that is the way a detective works. It&#8217;s like a detective story. So it&#8217;s really misguided to think that by appealing to the audience the way Hollywood scriptwriters do, you would gain some credibility. That&#8217;s completely misguided. The way to gain credibility is to show us the evidence.</p><p>Okay, so when David Grusch says about the dozens of spacecraft that are held in corporations, he doesn&#8217;t need to collaborate with Jerry Bruckheimer. I saw Jerry Bruckheimer a year ago, and the point is, he needs to have a guided tour to one of these sites where just one spacecraft is located. And it doesn&#8217;t mean that he needs to bring me there or the council. He just needs to bring President Trump and everything will be over. Everyone will agree with it. And then he can make the millions or billions of dollars because he was the one to show this spacecraft or to lead to that location. That is the key. The key is the evidence. People are missing the point.</p><p>Now, of course, if you are a believer, you think you already know the answer in advance, you might be quite happy about the current situation already. But I&#8217;m saying that&#8217;s not the way science is done. That&#8217;s not the way by which we gain objective new knowledge. And just look at the history. There were lots of people believing in something that turned out to be wrong for many, many decades or centuries. And the only way to figure it out is eventually through the scientific process.</p><p>And I know that science doesn&#8217;t have a great reputation right now. It&#8217;s considered to be the occupation of the elite. But this subject is a great way to demonstrate the value of science, because we can then convince everyone through the scientific method that we are dealing with an alien visitation, if it&#8217;s real. And the public cares a lot about these questions. So here is a golden opportunity for us to engage the public in the scientific process. Tell the public that we don&#8217;t know when we don&#8217;t have evidence, and we do know when we have evidence, not tell Jerry Bruckheimer what we think we know without showing the evidence. That&#8217;s not the way to make progress. So to me, it&#8217;s important as an educational way of telling the public how science is valuable.</p><p>## Watering the Roots of the Tree</p><p>Avi Loeb: And by the way, I think that science is not appreciated also by, not just by members of the public, but also by Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, billionaires who think that if you have the tree of knowledge, the biblical tree of knowledge, they can harvest the fruits of the tree, like AI, quantum computers, and make trillions of dollars out of those fruits. And all they need is to water the branches of the tree to get more fruits in the future. They&#8217;re making a great mistake, a huge mistake strategically, because the only way that the tree of knowledge will give them new fruits is by watering the roots of the tree. The roots of the tree is fundamental science, and the fundamental science is not being funded at the same level as all these trillion-dollar technologies, the data centers.</p><p>And what I&#8217;m just saying is, I&#8217;m not asking them to apologize for the fact that a hundred years ago, the people who discovered quantum mechanics received salaries that are a million times smaller than their income. I&#8217;m not saying, okay, you reaped the fruits of the tree without rewarding the people who actually allowed you, by discovering quantum mechanics, to do this. I&#8217;m just saying, appreciate the intellectual value of those pioneers who were paid very little, gave you the information that you are using now to get trillions of dollars out of the economy, and fund additional work on the foundations of science rather than on how to use AI and quantum computers to make more money.</p><p>## We&#8217;re Searching in the Dark</p><p>Brian Keating: Speaking of something, as we wrap up, that&#8217;s taken a lot of money and didn&#8217;t provide a lot of return on the investment until maybe just last month, is the search for dark matter. And dark matter was recently, not claimed to be detected, but Rick Gaitskell is a spokesperson for the LZ collaboration down there at Brown, my alma mater, go Bears. He claimed weak evidence for some anomalous hint of a new particle. First of all, we haven&#8217;t talked since then. What was your initial take on this?</p><p>There&#8217;s no branch of astronomy, cosmology, physics, fundamental philosophy that you haven&#8217;t contributed to. And aliens are just the tip of the iceberg. And I should say that you can find out a lot more about Avi from his Medium, which we&#8217;ll link, and his YouTube channel, which there&#8217;s only but one official Avi Loeb YouTube channel. Anyway, Avi, tell me, what did you make of that detection? &#8216;Cause I&#8217;m gonna just bring it back to the search for aliens too.</p><p>Avi Loeb: I should say most of my career was dedicated to other things. Just today I taught a class in the morning, and I was teaching the hydrogen atom in quantum mechanics and mentioning the 21 centimeter transition. And I said, two decades ago I worked full time on 21 centimeter cosmology and I wrote textbooks about it, and it&#8217;s one of those things that I was completely immersed in. So people who see me just over the recent years get a very false impression about what I worked on or know and so forth.</p><p>But to your question, so I was very excited about the discovery, but it&#8217;s one event. And of course it has a statistical significance because we wouldn&#8217;t expect this event from background. So the key is that the background events that we can imagine would never produce the properties of this event, the characteristics of this event. Of course, what it means is that in the future, with bigger detector and also with more time to collect additional events, we should be able to figure out whether it was a fluke of some random event that we cannot understand, but it&#8217;s background, or it&#8217;s a signal.</p><p>And if it&#8217;s a signal, and we will know hopefully within the coming decade, indeed it&#8217;s a major discovery, because we are talking about 84% of the matter content of the universe. That&#8217;s a major, and knowing what it is would open up new frontiers for fundamental physics, which over the past 50 years, theoretical physics was engaged with extra dimensions, with supersymmetry, things that were not demonstrated experimentally. It&#8217;s a bit disappointing to see that decline in the traditional sense of fundamental physics being driven by discoveries, experimental discoveries. So let&#8217;s hope that there is something there, and if not, we&#8217;ll continue the search. We&#8217;re searching in the dark.</p><p>And I should say, we invested billions of dollars in the search for dark matter so far, and maybe a thousand times less in the search for technological probes near Earth that may have arrived from another civilization. So I would say let&#8217;s invest also billions of dollars in the search for technological gadgets of alien technology. And if we don&#8217;t find anything, we&#8217;ll be roughly at the same situation as we are with dark matter.</p><p>Brian Keating: Well, good luck with the X Prize, good luck with the research that you do. I wanna thank you, Michael Shermer. I&#8217;ll have links to your YouTube channel, your Medium articles. Avi, this has been great. Thank you so much, my friend.</p><p>Avi Loeb: Thanks for having me.</p>								</div>
				</div>
					</div>
				</div>
				</div>
		]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://briankeating.com/are-ufos-alien-tech-avi-loeb-vs-michael-shermer/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
		<media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sj7LRq-Uq3k" medium="video" width="1280" height="720">
			<media:player url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sj7LRq-Uq3k" />
			<media:title type="plain">Disclosure Debate: Are UFOs Alien Tech? Avi Loeb vs Michael Shermer</media:title>
			<media:description type="html"><![CDATA[Is there alien technology in our skies, or just birds, balloons and bad video? Two members of the White House UAP Science Advisory Council face off LIVE. Har...]]></media:description>
			<media:thumbnail url="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Shermer-vs-Loeb.jpg" />
			<media:rating scheme="urn:simple">nonadult</media:rating>
		</media:content>
	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Adam Grant: Don&#8217;t Trust Your Gut. Test It.</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/adam-grant-dont-trust-your-gut-test-it/</link>
					<comments>https://briankeating.com/adam-grant-dont-trust-your-gut-test-it/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sabartigas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2026 01:16:55 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Transcripts]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://briankeating.com/?p=8967</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Adam Grant: Don&#8217;t Trust Your Gut. Test It. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajx261foD1U Transcript: Adam Grant: When you and I are vibing, our brain waves actually start to synchronize, and so do our heartbeats. The highest sign of chemistry between people is not agreeing with them. It’s actually enjoying your disagreements with them. Don’t believe anything that can’t be verified. That’s just a precept of science. But also, don’t disbelieve anything that can’t be falsified. They’re a narcissist, a Machiavellian, or a psychopath. Brian Keating: Check. Adam Grant: I’m not qualified to diagnose you, Brian. Brian Keating: Wharton’s Adam Grant runs the experiments on why some people click and others clash. At the end, he tells me why my somewhat snarky critique of his newest study has his team talking about a follow-up. This book is a stealth physics book Brian Keating: I want to start off because this book is a stealth physics book. I have a feeling, Adam, you’re a deeply closeted physicist. Because this book brings up one of physicists’ favorite topics, vibrations. Let me give you some quotes. Okay, not all these appear in the book, but some do. Max Planck, the originator of quantum theory: “All matter originates and exists only by virtue of a force which brings the particle of an atom to vibration.” Okay, that’s number one. Richard Feynman, our hero, right? “Light is waves and electric field. We represent it as a vibration.” So, this is a big deal, a big field. I used to use this as the ending of my podcast. I said, “What is the most succinct sentence that describes the most information?” And I got that from Feynman. He said that everything is a vibration. Little particles in perpetual motion. Okay, that’s Feynman. Michio Kaku, another podcaster, the highest profession, right? Podcasting professors, there aren’t many of us. Adam, “According to string theory, if we could magnify a point particle, we might see vibrating strings.” Brian Greene says the same thing. And then finally, of course, there is Tesla. “If you want to find the secrets to the universe,” Adam, “think in terms of energy, frequency, and vibration.” What does vibration mean to you? Adam Grant: I had to cut out a lot of physics metaphors from this book for the average reader to find it hopefully interesting. But I think people throw around this word vibe and they say, “It’s a vibe,” or, “I like her vibe.” And what they’re overlooking is that a vibe doesn’t just sit there. It’s not just dormant in a place or a person. It comes alive in our interactions. So when I think about a vibe, I think about a high-quality connection between people. And I think about it happening in ways that neuroscientists can actually measure in the body and the brain. When you and I are vibing, our brain waves actually start to synchronize and so do our heartbeats. And so there is a physiological trace. And I don’t think we should find that surprising, right? We are literally vibrating on the same energy frequency. But I think when people hear vibe, they start to think of something that’s a little bit hippie or woo-woo. And they don’t realize, no, no, no. This is real. It’s observable. Brian Keating: There’s so many physics quotes you left out, including one from my favorite Southern Californians. “I’m picking up good vibrations. She’s giving me excitations.” And then of course, Marky Mark, “Feel it, feel it, good vibrations.” There’s always this danger of woo-woo, and how do you avoid that woo patina? You’re a rigorous academician, scientist, and intellectual. How did you avoid that temptation to fall into the trap that Tesla and other people have so easily slipped into? Adam Grant: I try to think about this in two ways. One is I built a reputation for being an evidence-based social scientist, and this is I think my seventh book. I hope by now anybody who comes to a book of mine knows that if anything, they’re going to complain that there were too many studies cited. There are too many meta-analyses. There are too many randomized controlled experiments and longitudinal studies, and I didn’t relegate enough of them to the footnotes or references. And I will always prefer to err on that side as opposed to the other. I think secondly, the part of the fun of being academic is to try to elicit the same enthusiasm in readers and listeners that we do in the classroom when students are really sitting there. And I know that for me, my favorite moments as a student were when a professor said, “Hey, here’s a concept that you have talked about in your everyday life, that you’ve experienced. Let me give you some data for it. Let me help you use the scientific method to try to understand it.” And so that’s really what I sat down to do with Vibe. I wanted to try to figure out what do we know about how to spark, strengthen, sustain, and scale connections between people and eventually into groups and communities. And the good news is there’s now about a century of evidence on how to do that more effectively. Starting point is always to say, what findings have been replicated independently and transparently and cumulated, ideally in a meta-analysis? I rely on those where I can. When we don’t have that, let’s try to look at the best individual studies and say, what do they teach us about how we can build more durable connections? Two kinds of conflict Brian Keating: So in the mid-1600s, Christiaan Huygens, a phenomenal, renowned physicist, put two pendulum clocks on a board and found that when they were independent of each other initially, they would eventually get in synchronicity and start swinging together. And I feel like if I ever gave a guest lecture on this topic, I’d bring in a lot of demonstrations. But it seems like what I]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="8967" class="elementor elementor-8967">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-b4cc50e e-flex e-con-boxed wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no e-con e-parent" data-id="b4cc50e" data-element_type="container" data-e-type="container">
					<div class="e-con-inner">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-dd56c04 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading" data-id="dd56c04" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="heading.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Adam Grant: Don't Trust Your Gut. Test It.</h2>				</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-87fe952 elementor-widget elementor-widget-video" data-id="87fe952" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-settings="{&quot;youtube_url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ajx261foD1U&quot;,&quot;video_type&quot;:&quot;youtube&quot;,&quot;controls&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;}" data-widget_type="video.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
							<div class="elementor-wrapper elementor-open-inline">
			<div class="elementor-video"></div>		</div>
						</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-d8a330b elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="d8a330b" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
									<h2><strong>Transcript:</strong></h2><p>Adam Grant: When you and I are vibing, our brain waves actually start to synchronize, and so do our heartbeats. The highest sign of chemistry between people is not agreeing with them. It’s actually enjoying your disagreements with them. Don’t believe anything that can’t be verified. That’s just a precept of science. But also, don’t disbelieve anything that can’t be falsified. They’re a narcissist, a Machiavellian, or a psychopath.</p><p>Brian Keating: Check.</p><p>Adam Grant: I’m not qualified to diagnose you, Brian.</p><p>Brian Keating: Wharton’s Adam Grant runs the experiments on why some people click and others clash. At the end, he tells me why my somewhat snarky critique of his newest study has his team talking about a follow-up.</p><p>This book is a stealth physics book</p><p>Brian Keating: I want to start off because this book is a stealth physics book. I have a feeling, Adam, you’re a deeply closeted physicist. Because this book brings up one of physicists’ favorite topics, vibrations. Let me give you some quotes. Okay, not all these appear in the book, but some do. Max Planck, the originator of quantum theory: “All matter originates and exists only by virtue of a force which brings the particle of an atom to vibration.” Okay, that’s number one. Richard Feynman, our hero, right? “Light is waves and electric field. We represent it as a vibration.” So, this is a big deal, a big field. I used to use this as the ending of my podcast. I said, “What is the most succinct sentence that describes the most information?” And I got that from Feynman. He said that everything is a vibration. Little particles in perpetual motion. Okay, that’s Feynman. Michio Kaku, another podcaster, the highest profession, right? Podcasting professors, there aren’t many of us. Adam, “According to string theory, if we could magnify a point particle, we might see vibrating strings.” Brian Greene says the same thing. And then finally, of course, there is Tesla. “If you want to find the secrets to the universe,” Adam, “think in terms of energy, frequency, and vibration.” What does vibration mean to you?</p><p>Adam Grant: I had to cut out a lot of physics metaphors from this book for the average reader to find it hopefully interesting. But I think people throw around this word vibe and they say, “It’s a vibe,” or, “I like her vibe.” And what they’re overlooking is that a vibe doesn’t just sit there. It’s not just dormant in a place or a person. It comes alive in our interactions. So when I think about a vibe, I think about a high-quality connection between people. And I think about it happening in ways that neuroscientists can actually measure in the body and the brain. When you and I are vibing, our brain waves actually start to synchronize and so do our heartbeats. And so there is a physiological trace. And I don’t think we should find that surprising, right? We are literally vibrating on the same energy frequency. But I think when people hear vibe, they start to think of something that’s a little bit hippie or woo-woo. And they don’t realize, no, no, no. This is real. It’s observable.</p><p>Brian Keating: There’s so many physics quotes you left out, including one from my favorite Southern Californians. “I’m picking up good vibrations. She’s giving me excitations.” And then of course, Marky Mark, “Feel it, feel it, good vibrations.” There’s always this danger of woo-woo, and how do you avoid that woo patina? You’re a rigorous academician, scientist, and intellectual. How did you avoid that temptation to fall into the trap that Tesla and other people have so easily slipped into?</p><p>Adam Grant: I try to think about this in two ways. One is I built a reputation for being an evidence-based social scientist, and this is I think my seventh book. I hope by now anybody who comes to a book of mine knows that if anything, they’re going to complain that there were too many studies cited. There are too many meta-analyses. There are too many randomized controlled experiments and longitudinal studies, and I didn’t relegate enough of them to the footnotes or references. And I will always prefer to err on that side as opposed to the other. I think secondly, the part of the fun of being academic is to try to elicit the same enthusiasm in readers and listeners that we do in the classroom when students are really sitting there. And I know that for me, my favorite moments as a student were when a professor said, “Hey, here’s a concept that you have talked about in your everyday life, that you’ve experienced. Let me give you some data for it. Let me help you use the scientific method to try to understand it.” And so that’s really what I sat down to do with Vibe. I wanted to try to figure out what do we know about how to spark, strengthen, sustain, and scale connections between people and eventually into groups and communities. And the good news is there’s now about a century of evidence on how to do that more effectively. Starting point is always to say, what findings have been replicated independently and transparently and cumulated, ideally in a meta-analysis? I rely on those where I can. When we don’t have that, let’s try to look at the best individual studies and say, what do they teach us about how we can build more durable connections?</p><p>Two kinds of conflict</p><p>Brian Keating: So in the mid-1600s, Christiaan Huygens, a phenomenal, renowned physicist, put two pendulum clocks on a board and found that when they were independent of each other initially, they would eventually get in synchronicity and start swinging together. And I feel like if I ever gave a guest lecture on this topic, I’d bring in a lot of demonstrations. But it seems like what I learned from the book is you can’t force it. If you try to drive it, they won’t synchronize. They won’t resonate. And you make the point in the book that’s very counterintuitive, that sometimes you have to disagree, and the disagreement then causes a type of resonance to occur in the team, but not at first. Explain that paradox to me.</p><p>Adam Grant: Well, there are two kinds of conflict at a basic level that most people experience regularly at work. They’re called task conflict and relationship conflict. Most people, when they think about conflict, are thinking about relationship conflict. It’s personal, emotional. “I wish I didn’t have to work with you because I can’t stand you. And also, Brian, you kind of smell bad.” Not productive for collaboration. I can smell you even through the screen. It’s awful. Task conflict is different. It’s disagreeing about vision, strategy, decisions. We’re debating not because we have any kind of interpersonal animosity, but because we have different ideas about how to get to the best answer or how to produce the best product or how to solve the problem in front of us. And teams without task conflict fail. They fall victim to groupthink. It’s well documented. They tend to live in echo chambers and filter bubbles. Task conflict is necessary for surfacing creative ideas. It’s also really critical to making sure that unpopular opinions get the weight that they deserve. And I think that oftentimes people overreact to task conflict and they treat it as relationship conflict. They take it personally. Which is why I think the key to healthy conflict is actually setting expectations so that you know that when I disagree with you, it’s not because I dislike you or disrespect you, but rather because I want to try to get it right. I’m not trying to convince you that I am right. So how do you do this? There’s research by Corinne Bendersky which shows that even just saying, “Can we debate this?” is enough to foster healthy task conflict, because people have a mental model for what a good debate is. They know that we’re supposed to duke it out and ultimately maybe even listen to each other and learn something from each other. I think the highest sign of chemistry between people is not agreeing with them. It’s actually enjoying your disagreements with them.</p><p>The infant was almost guiding the parent</p><p>Brian Keating: What interested me most about one of your studies, and it’s clear that you’re phenomenal teacher, researcher, but also a parent, and that you take it very seriously, and you talk about dynamics between children and parents, and one story where it seemed to be that the infant was almost guiding the parent in a way, which is very, again, a lot of what you write about and teach about is counterintuitive. It kind of reminded me of that cartoon, an alien looks down at Earth, or Jerry Seinfeld routine, and sees this guy’s walking behind a dog and the dog is determining where he goes, and the person even gives the dog food and it picks up its poop. It’s crazy. You would think that the dog is in charge. What’s happening with parents and infants? How do the infants know how to synchronize the vibrational kind of resonance with the parents, or is it just natural and instinctive that a parent will want to follow the lead of the child?</p><p>Adam Grant: I think one of the things that I’ve learned just reading a fair amount of developmental psychology research, trying to figure out how do parents build a stronger family vibe, I didn’t know this, but one of the clearest early signals that parents and kids are going to bond is when parents observe their infant’s attention and then follow it. And I think we probably do have an evolutionary adaptation for this. I think that parents who couldn’t track their kid’s attention, they missed important signals. They didn’t notice a cry. They didn’t realize that their kid was thirsty or hungry. That is probably a recipe for not succeeding in raising a child that can go on to pass on its genes. I think there’s still a lot of variation, though, in our species. Some parents are much better at this than others. And I think that this is one of the first things that a lot of parents get wrong, is they think, “Look, it’s my job to be in charge,” and they end up doing what psychologists would call authoritarian parenting, which ultimately leads to either submissiveness or rebellion. What we’re looking for is what’s called authoritative parenting, which is a combination of being supportive and demanding. It’s setting high expectations. It’s also being warm and caring and nurturing, and the combination of unconditional love, but also saying, “I love you. I do not accept your behavior,” and expressing disappointment when kids fall short. That’s obviously easier to do when kids are 9 or 10 as opposed to 9 or 10 months. But setting boundaries for unacceptable behaviors starts early. I see a lot of parents who believe that their job is to run the show, and they basically just let their kids do whatever they want, as opposed to observing what their kids are doing and saying, “Okay, there are clear consequences for this behavior, and I’m going to let you know what is okay and what is not okay, and I love you regardless.”</p><p>They communicate in discontinuous bursts</p><p>Brian Keating: Can we explore a little bit of the quality of interaction between people, the intensity of the interaction, the kind of base levels of the hierarchy of needs? Some do stuff for companionship or closeness, and what is it, the chemistry, is so, it’s like the [inaudible], taste is not, this is not debatable, right? What are these important features, and then how can those be leveraged for teams like scientific collaborations in particular? One of the three leaders of a major scientific collaboration, what is it about the intensity, frequency, depth, regularity, etc., that can be used by teams like mine to inculcate a sense of shared values, maybe that we don’t actually have to agree, as you say, but how can we best leverage that in a scientific setting? Should it be more frequent Zoom meetings? What can we do to intensify the bonds and accentuate the outputs?</p><p>Adam Grant: I’m immediately thinking of Anita Woolley’s research on burstiness, which is a term she borrowed from physicists, looking at patterns of communication and signals being sent back and forth. But what Anita and her colleagues have done is they’ve studied collaboration, and they’ve been particularly interested in remote teams, because we live in a world now where it’s easier than ever to find a world expert to collaborate with remotely, and yet it may be harder than ever to make that collaboration productive because there’s so many differences and points of separation between us. So Anita was interested in, what are productive remote teams do differently? And she found that they do not communicate in consistent streams. There’s not a steady back and forth of daily calls and hourly Slacks and emails. No, they communicate in discontinuous bursts. They’ll go through a couple hours of high-intensity communication, and then they’ll go through maybe a couple hours or a couple days of not interacting at all. What’s happening there is people are going off to solve problems independently. There’s a rich literature on group brainstorming which shows that if we all come together thinking two heads are better than one and five heads are better than two. If instead we had generated ideas separately, working alone, we would have come up with more ideas and also better ideas. Because when we pool our perspectives, we tended to run into what psychologists call production blocking. We can’t all talk at once. Some ideas get lost. We fall victim to ego threat. “I don’t want to look like an idiot, so I bite my tongue on my most unconventional, unproven ideas.” And then there’s also conformity pressure. If a high-status person speaks up and the idea gets popular, then everyone wants to jump on the bandwagon. Sometimes that’s been called the HiPPO effect, the highest paid person’s opinion. As soon as that is known, right, we don’t get diversity of thought anymore. So the antidote that psychologists have studied to this problem is called brainwriting, where you give people the problem or the prompt. You let them generate their own ideas independently. Then everyone does separate assessments of all the contributions. And at that point you bring the group together, knowing individuals have more brilliant ideas than groups because of the variety and independent thought that they bring to the table. They also have more horrible ideas than groups, because we’re too close to our own ideas to judge them accurately. So we want to start with individual variety and then bring in group wisdom. And if you do that, you will find yourself in a nice pattern of burstiness where you collaborate intermittently. You’re going off to come up with ideas separately. You’re bringing the group together to try to figure out which of these possibilities are promising. Let’s evaluate them together. Let’s elaborate them together. And now we’re going to divide and conquer and move the project forward. Again, not all as a group. Brian, one other just little observation that Anita shared with me: when she studied burstiness, she found that there’s a motivation benefit of coming together intermittently, not just a knowledge combination benefit. So if you and I are collaborating remotely and we agree that between 1 and 3 p.m. on Tuesdays and Thursdays we’re going to be available to respond to each other, we are more motivated. I know that you are there if I need you. I know that you’re there waiting for my ideas or for my draft, and that allows me to feel that I’m not alone.</p><p>It’s a mistake to trust your gut</p><p>Brian Keating: Talk about the dangers of first impressions, because in some sense it helps out. Aren’t first impressions vitally, I mean, that spidey sense, that little tentative question that you have about somebody when you meet somebody, you seem to hint that maybe we should override that nagging doubt. What are the importances of holding first impressions loosely?</p><p>Adam Grant: I think when you meet somebody for the first time, it’s a mistake to trust your gut. You’re better off testing your gut. It may well be that your spidey sense is tingling for a good reason, and you’ve subconsciously picked up on a pattern suggesting that the person might have what psychologists would call dark triad traits of personality, which would be they’re a narcissist, a Machiavellian, or a psychopath.</p><p>Brian Keating: Check. Oh, no. [laughter] At least one of those I check. I have to say one of those I check, but I’m a professor.</p><p>Adam Grant: I’m not qualified to diagnose you, Brian. I’m not that kind of psychologist, I’m sorry to say. What I would say is, sometimes those cues are subtle, right? If you look at research by Dacher Keltner and Leanne ten Brinke and colleagues, what they show is there are these indications of superficial charm that you can catch if you’re paying close attention on a first impression. So somebody who is delightful when they first interact with you, but then you see them kind of subtly smile when somebody else fails. That schadenfreude is a signal that they might have some dark traits, but you might not be looking for it. And so you just get a weird feeling. Well, you might be right. It also might be the case that they smiled because a song they love came on in the background and you didn’t hear it and you don’t know that. And so you need to gather more information to figure out what is that cue telling you. And I think that’s what we see in research on personality over and over again, is when you meet somebody, you are only getting a snapshot of the person. Not only are you only limited to a slice of whatever traits they happen to present in that moment, you are also only seeing them in one role in one situation. And they might show up in different situations in different ways. I think about, for example, a colleague of mine who, if you showed up at a meeting and you were 5 minutes late, you would not like her. You would think that she’s unpleasant, that she’s judgmental of other people, because she’d give you a stern look and tell you that it’s not okay to show up late. Well, it turns out that’s a trigger for her. It’s a pet peeve of hers. If you met her in another setting, or you bothered to show up on time, you would see that she’s extremely warm and friendly and welcoming and caring and kind, and you would have a completely different perception of her. And I think it’s very common for us to clash with people in one context and click in another. And so ideally, we see people in a range of situations before we think we’ve actually found a signal in the noise.</p><p>Brian Keating: I think that’s what you call the fundamental attribution error. But at a certain point, when does it become okay to attribute motivation to people? Even if you don’t, I mean, you’ll never have complete theory of mind. So what threshold of evidence, in a Bayesian sense, do we need before I can say, “Brian’s a narcissist”?</p><p>Adam Grant: I wish we had a more precise answer to that question. I think it’s really hard to know exactly where to draw the line. My heuristic is I’m looking for consistent patterns of behavior over time and across situations and raters. So, as an example, if I’m doing a job interview and I see a red flag, and then somebody else who met that person in a different context has a similar red flag, now I’m wanting to know, okay, is there a third person who can triangulate that? And if I see that, okay, this person has a pattern of egotistical, self-centered behavior over now the course of a year or multiple years, and different people have seen it, and it’s not just shown up in a job interview where they’re trying to make a good impression and there’s a norm of self-promotion, now my eyebrows are raised.</p><p>The soloist versus the orchestra</p><p>Brian Keating: The other thing that speaks to me in this book, and my wife’s a musician, she plays a violin. I play an instrument. It’s called Spotify. But they always have these violinists that come in, and it seems to me there’s this duality, wave-particle duality, as we’d say in quantum mechanics, between the importance of the soloist versus the orchestra. And a lot of people want to be the soloist. How do you balance those dynamics? Like in physics this week, for the first time in 34 years, a single person, my friend, it turns out, Francis Halzen at University of Wisconsin-Madison, he won the Nobel Prize. He was the first solo winner of the physics Nobel Prize in 34 years. It’s incredible. Yet he led a team of hundreds, and there have been many thousands involved in projects. Our team that Mark Devlin, your colleague at Penn, and I and Suzanne Staggs and Jo Dunkley lead is called the Simons Observatory. We got 450 people. Some of those people are rock stars and soloists. How do you know what role you’re destined to play? It’s not something you can easily predict, right? And you see a student and you might see greatness in that student or whatever, but they might not live out their potential. How do you inculcate that? A little bit of swagger, but also the humility, balancing with a little bit of humility.</p><p>Adam Grant: What I’m always looking for is confident humility. That’s a quality that I seek out in people and I also try to cultivate in people. For me, confident humility is being secure enough in your strengths that you’re willing to acknowledge your weaknesses. It’s being confident enough in your expertise to admit what you don’t know. And I think this is ideally how we’re all trained as scientists, or social scientists for that matter, if you want to separate that out as a separate category.</p><p>Brian Keating: No, I think what you just said is the essence of a great scientist. I’m sorry to interrupt you, but I love to point this out. We have a lot of young students and Nobel Prize winners that listen, but what Adam just said is vitally important. I gave a TED talk, which has the logarithm of the number of views your TED talks have, but it was that you should have two pockets, and it comes from a Yiddish parable about, a man should have two pockets with a note in each one. One says that the whole world was made for you, and the other one says you’re nothing but dust and ashes. And what you just said is that confident humility is the essence of being a good scientist. I love the way you captured that.</p><p>Adam Grant: It also reminds me of a Nordic proverb that, well, actually it comes from the Law of Jante originally, I think, which is, you are no better than anyone else, but also nobody else is better than you. And I think that duality is important, because science requires audacity. It requires the courage to come up with bold ideas, to challenge conventional wisdom, to ask questions that have never been asked, and to contemplate answers that have never been dreamed up before. And it’s hard to imagine doing that without confidence. At the same time, you are a failure as a scientist if you cannot recognize that you might be wrong. I have come across too many scientists who are more motivated to prove that they’re right than they are to search for reasons why they might be wrong. And psychologists have long called that confirmation bias. I actually think that’s only part of the battle. Confirmation bias is trying to support your existing assumptions and beliefs and maybe discount contradictory information. Even worse is what’s called desirability bias, which is when you are motivated to support your hypothesis and shut down any information that might call them into question. Whether Thomas Kuhn got anything right in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions or not, I think the fundamental psychological dynamic that animates what’s often kind of the slow march to discovering that one of our major theories was incorrect, which is having a motivated group of people who are invested in supporting the status quo. And I think confident humility is what allows you to say, “You know what? I’m more interested in getting it right than I am in being right. I am not somebody who believes I found the truth. I’m somebody who’s committed to searching.”</p><p>Brian Keating: Wait for it. Just a quick interruption from today’s sponsor: me, Brian Keating. Since it’s Nobel Prize season, I can’t resist advertising my three books. First book I wrote is called Losing the Nobel Prize. It’s a cosmology story mixed with a memoir of what it feels like to do science at the highest level and, spoiler alert, fail. But my next book, Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner, tells a story of nine Nobel laureates who will reveal their insights and actions, how to take your science or just your job in general to the next level. It’s full of insights and tips that I never would have thought of. And lastly, my book published last year, Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner, is written for students of all ages to learn the tools and the tricks to compete with yourself, which sometimes could be the hardest competitor of all. Get all three of them, Amazon affiliate links in the description below. And if you’ve read them already, I’d love it if you leave a review. Every single review helps. Now back to the episode.</p><p>The future of the university</p><p>Brian Keating: I’m interviewing your colleague Ethan Mollick tomorrow, as it turns out, for his new book. His chapter 8, he talks about the future of the university, and I see us as very susceptible. I mean, the fact that during COVID we were remote for a year and a half. I think it was the same for you guys. Our experiment was shut down for a long time. Certainly seems to be hard to do what you do, let alone what we do, without being in person. And a lot of that kind of secret sauce was lost: the interactions, the intangibles, the vibration, the interaction, chemistry that you talk about in your book, Vibe. And I wonder, I would have thought that that would have been maybe the end of education. Our form of education, where the sage on the stage, a guy with a piece of rock in one hand scratching on another piece of rock with the other. That’s been around for a thousand years, since the University of Bologna, 1080. Why are universities so resilient to these situations where you take away the very essence of vibing with one another, and yet they’re just as good? And obviously AI can do the same thing. How come universities are so resilient to this phenomenon?</p><p>Adam Grant: Well, I don’t think all learning needs to happen in a classroom. I think there’s a reason we have homework, [laughter] obviously. I think also, I think it’s often said that necessity is the mother of invention. And in some of my research, I’ve wanted to complicate that a little bit and say actually the necessity of others is a mother of invention. Because if you’re only addressing your own need, it’s not going to gain acceptance, or your solution is not going to be useful to others. And it’s the desire to crack a problem out of both personal interest and a sincere commitment to trying to benefit others that ultimately leads people to come up with new ideas that are fundamentally useful to others. I think that’s what we had to do during COVID. I think that when we got shut down, I remember, Brian, having to teach my first Zoom class and feeling like I was violating one of the laws of thermodynamics, right? I know that energy can neither be created nor destroyed. And yet I was sending all of this energy out and nothing was coming back. At first I thought I was burning out. And then I read a whole bunch of research on this and discovered actually the term for it is boreout, not burnout. Zoom fatigue is not overstimulation. It turns out to be understimulation. And so I started thinking about what can I do to raise the stimulation level of the students. And one thing I realized was I was kind of stuck in talking head mode because I didn’t know how to lead a class discussion virtually. So I started taking some of the same tools that I use in the live classroom and bringing them into the chat window. So in a live classroom, what I normally do is I say, first of all, if you have a disagreement that you want to raise, hold up a pen, and that will signal to me that somebody wants to bring in a divergent thought and we’ve got an opportunity for debate, and I’m going to have you jump the line. Secondly, if you ever see 20 hands up and you just have a burning question or comment and you just can’t wait to get in, I’m gonna have you wave your name card and I will let you jump the line there and I’ll call on you right away. And I thought, why not do this in the chat window? So I gave my students hashtags, and I said, “Okay, if you want to debate, #debate. If you have a burning question or comment, #onfire.” And every 2, 3, 5 minutes I would pause. I would scan through the chat. I had some TAs who were also scrolling through it and prompting me. I’ve got to tell you, Brian, that although the energy level overall was lower in my Zoom classes than I had felt in the live classroom, I had richer discussions teaching over Zoom than I had ever had in the live classroom. And the reason for that was, instead of calling on a random hand that may or may not be relevant, I was able to read everybody’s questions and thoughts in the chat and choreograph a discussion that built, that challenged, that ultimately crescendoed to an aha moment. And ever since then, I’ve been looking for ways to do more of that in the classroom. But I think what happened was we were forced to innovate, and we did.</p><p>Brian Keating: In the age of AI, when I can have a conversation with Carl Sagan or Madame Curie, or, we got to get you a finger puppet, or Einstein or Galileo, my hero, my personal hero, why do we need the university system? I mean, if you could synthesize Adam Grant. I mean, you have one of the best rejection templates, the power of no. You write an email to Adam Grant, you can find his email, I’m not going to tell you where it is, but you can find it, you will get the most cordial, sophisticated, polite decline to ever hear from him again. And I respect that, but that’s probably born of the fact that you are incredibly in demand, and for good reason. So, but my students at UCSD can’t come and take a class with you in person, but what if they could take virtual Adam AI and have you? Isn’t that going to pose a threat to us, Adam, as professors?</p><p>Adam Grant: I don’t think it’s going to pose a threat. Number one, because we haven’t seen the same legitimacy of degrees for online learning only that are conferred by physical universities. But number two, more importantly, people learn best in communities. I do not know how to build and scale a classroom of hundreds or thousands of people that will challenge each other and question each other the way that we do in a live classroom on campus. I also think that students don’t just come to learn, they come to bond. And there is no substitute for face-to-face interaction if you want to get to know someone. I will say there’s a paper that came out earlier this year out of the Eastwick lab which shows that if you go on a Zoom date, if you control for the length of the date, they do tend to be twice as long in person as opposed to Zoom. But people are just as attracted to each other and they’re just as interested in going on a second date over Zoom. And that may just be because their expectations were low, and they [laughter] thought, “Wow, I never thought that this would be even remotely enjoyable, and I actually really liked that person.” But if you want to make a meaningful connection with somebody, it’s really hard to do that if you’ve never been in the same room with them. And I think people crave that. I think people want to come to universities where they can make lifelong friends, where they can get to know their professors personally and feel like their mentors actually have an understanding of their potential and their capabilities. And I think that it’s just unimaginable to me that that community is going to exist in a metaverse or in any kind of online class.</p><p>Judging Books by Their Covers</p><p>Brian Keating: I have a patented section of my podcast called Judging Books by Their Covers.</p><p>[Jingle] By the covers. We know we’re not supposed to do it, but [inaudible] the impossible, there’s nothing to it. Let’s take a look and judge some books.</p><p>Brian Keating: Which is another way of saying first impression. If somebody doesn’t know anything about you, I want you to take us through the cover. So, the title, the subtitle, The Secrets of Strong Connections in a Lonely World, and Reese Witherspoon. No, you don’t have to mention “with Reese Witherspoon,” but take us through the cover art, the title, and why you chose the subtitle.</p><p>Adam Grant: Vibe is, it’s in the zeitgeist. I think that Gen Z and Gen Alpha are trying to co-opt it, although it’s been used to describe the energy and interaction and the meaningful bonds we form since at least the Beach Boys, right? With “Good Vibrations.” So we can trace it back over half a century as a popular term. I think when people hear vibe, I wanted to make it clear that I’m interested in how do we form a bond with other people. And I think strong connections, it was just the easiest way to capture that. We actually A/B tested a whole bunch of other subtitles. And we had “successful relationships,” but relationships signaled marriage. And this book is about all kinds of interactions and connections. It’s about collaborations and partnerships. It’s about romantic relationships. It’s about friendships. And connection felt most encompassing. And the cover art came from a lot of bad ideas, trying to figure out how do we symbolize two things that seem like, on their face, they might not click, actually coming together. And we thought, okay, two puzzle pieces that are a misfit being zipped together. That’s a way to signal that you might be able to vibe with people that you don’t expect.</p><p>A Rosetta Stone between social science and physical science</p><p>Brian Keating: When I wrote about this wonderful article, it gave me great satisfaction to read your paper. But the tools and methodology that social scientists use are a little bit foreign to my audience, which skews more to physical science and maybe pure economics and stuff like that. Walk us through the methodology to give us a kind of a Rosetta Stone to translate between social science and the rigor that you apply as a real scientist, to what a physical scientist that may have a little bit too much arrogance and narcissism think they’re doing, the real science. Walk us through: what is the lexicon? How can I think about things like pre-registration? What should I hear when I hear things like that? And then why even do that at all?</p><p>Adam Grant: I’m an organizational psychologist, and I was trained to go out into the world and look for a phenomenon and try to either measure it or create it before then trying to pin it down and explain it. So oftentimes my first study will take place in the field. It might be an experiment. I did some experiments early in my career where I was studying fundraising callers at a university, and I randomly assigned some of them to have a five-minute interaction that a month later the average caller had more than doubled in weekly phone time and nearly tripled in weekly revenue. And the simple intervention was they got to hear a scholarship student talk about how his life had been changed by the money that the fundraising callers brought in. And all of a sudden, I think they knew that the money would go somewhere. They didn’t know who was benefiting from it. They could attach a living, breathing human being to the benefits of their work, and they knew what they were doing matters. So I do that experiment initially. They have a high turnover rate. So I’m able to replicate it with a bunch of new callers every semester in the call center. At that time pre-registration didn’t exist. And so I just went into the lab and designed an experiment where I had people do a helping task, and I randomly assigned some of them to actually just briefly see the student who was going to benefit, and then tracked whether they spent more time on the task. If I were doing that experiment now, what I would do with my research team is we would write out the hypothesis. We say, “We have a hypothesis that if you interact with or even just witness face to face the person that your task is benefiting, then we believe you’re going to spend more time on the task and you’re going to make fewer errors.” And then we would pre-register that. We’d tell you roughly how many participants we were expecting to get and where we were going to find them. And then we would run the study and see if we support the hypothesis or not.</p><p>Don’t disbelieve anything that can’t be falsified</p><p>Brian Keating: And I think, echoing back to Feynman, who we opened the conversation with, the first principle according to Feynman is that you shouldn’t fool yourself, and you are the easiest one to fool, according to Feynman. So Adam, I study the expanding universe, and there’s a concept called the event horizon, beyond which we cannot see, and that eventually our universe, if current trends hold, keep paying your taxes out there, but the universe will keep expanding until it reaches sort of this heat death where there’s no useful work that can be performed because of dilution and the vast sums of entropy that are impossible to reduce at that point. And it made me think about your title, it’s living in a lonely world. So the world is lonely. The universe is even lonelier. Hashtag lonely universe. But what one piece of advice would you like to leave my fairly science-heavy audience, who, as we say, one kind of thing would you give them, to give them the hope that all is not lost, to give them the courage to do as you’ve done, to go into the impossible, to fight against the entropy, the heat death, the isolation and loneliness? What would you tell my audience?</p><p>Adam Grant: I think what I would say is, don’t believe anything that can’t be verified. That’s just a precept of science. But also don’t disbelieve anything that can’t be falsified. And I think that’s important because, whether you’re talking about the heat death of the universe or any depressing theory in science, we don’t know for sure. We don’t know yet. And I think full certainty is a great way both to depress yourself and also isolate yourself from your peers. I think it’s much healthier to talk in conditional probabilities. I think we should all be good Bayesians, right? So I think my advice would be, when thinking about scientific models, to say these are models. They are the best approximations we have of the universe. We are going to gather a lot of data in the coming years and decades and centuries that may turn our thinking upside down. And just as we’ve been through a Copernican revolution and a quantum revolution, there are probably other revolutions to come that we can’t foresee. That’s part of what makes it exciting to be a scientist. It means every single answer that you discover raises probably dozens of new questions. And it should be the questions, not the answers, that animate us.</p><p>Brian Keating: And as our friend Pythagoras enjoined us many, many millennia ago, that there is a geometry in the vibration of the strings. But you’re absolutely right. If we had attributed settled science to that falsifiable argument, we would have lost out on 20 centuries of the scientific progress. And I think science is ultimately a hopeful subject, that it allows us to have agency. And there’s a lot of doom and gloom going around, especially when it comes to AI. I’m not a doomer. I’m like one of a few people who’s not a doomer. We’ll have to do a part two to explore your feelings on the future of AI. But this book is incredibly well written. I want everyone to buy every copy, but please do get the audio copy. The audiobook is an actual theatrical work, and I think in the age of AI, when you can get any summary of the book in two seconds, you can’t get this. It’s really a special thing. And Adam, you’re to be congratulated, and thank you for this wonderful gift of your time and the book.</p><p>The thoughtful critique you wrote</p><p>Adam Grant: Well, thank you, Brian. It’s very kind of you, and I just want to again commend the thoughtful critique you wrote of our op-ed on why narcissistic leaders resist remote work. You brought in several very compelling challenges that our team is actually talking about doing follow-up research on, which is great fun. Not every day that a cosmologist informs our research and sparks some new ideas. But I also really appreciated, you read our op-ed, and I think most people, if it’s outside your field, you would stop there. You actually went and read our research paper, and then you asked me why didn’t you include a couple of these nuances that were important for the findings in your studies in the op-ed, and sadly, space constraints were the short answer. You provided a really powerful model of how to engage with people in different disciplines, starting from the standpoint of curiosity and humility, and I think that was a real gift, and I’d love to see more people communicate across disciplines that way.</p><p>Brian Keating: The title of the paper is “Worship Me at the Office Altar,” and it’s about remote work and how CEOs that have high on the triad that you mentioned before, at least one dimension, towards narcissism, they were more likely, after reading certain inspirational quotes and other pre-registered topics, to display a propensity towards in-person work. And some of the hypotheses were generated around that’s to feed their own ego. And I said the most capable profession, where we could do everything on Zoom, because we did it all on Zoom, was not a hospital CEO or a United Airlines CEO, but would be professors. And I said, “If you need a narcissistic professor lab rat, Adam, I’m your man, my brother.” [laughter]</p><p>Adam Grant: At least you own up to it.</p><p>Brian Keating: What can I say? I’m there for you. Plug me into those electrodes. Get me on the couch. Do whatever you got to do. I’m here for it, my friend. Thank you, Adam. This is great.</p><p>Adam Grant: Thank you, Brian. I appreciate it.</p><p>Brian Keating: Adam just told us the best sign of chemistry isn’t agreement. It’s enjoying the disagreement. If that changes how you run your team, subscribe so you don’t miss what’s next, and tell me in the comments who is the person you argue with most and still trust the most. For a fun conversation with a scientist that I don’t always agree with, but always have respect for, watch my recent debate with Roman Yampolskiy, joined alongside Joscha Bach. We disagree about the dangers of superintelligence, but that’s okay. The bots will sort it out for us. See you next time on Into the Impossible.</p>								</div>
				</div>
					</div>
				</div>
				</div>
		]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://briankeating.com/adam-grant-dont-trust-your-gut-test-it/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
		<media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ajx261foD1U" medium="video" width="1280" height="720">
			<media:player url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ajx261foD1U" />
			<media:title type="plain">Adam Grant: How to Build Chemistry in a Remote World</media:title>
			<media:description type="html"><![CDATA[When two people are vibing, their brainwaves synchronize and so do their heartbeats. That is not a metaphor. It is a measurable physiological event, and orga...]]></media:description>
			<media:thumbnail url="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Adam-Grant-thumb.jpg" />
			<media:rating scheme="urn:simple">nonadult</media:rating>
		</media:content>
	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Roman Yampolskiy vs Joscha Bach: Can Anyone Control Superintelligence?</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/roman-yampolskiy-vs-joscha-bach-can-anyone-control-superintelligence/</link>
					<comments>https://briankeating.com/roman-yampolskiy-vs-joscha-bach-can-anyone-control-superintelligence/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sabartigas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 02:56:45 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Transcripts]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://briankeating.com/?p=8941</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Roman Yampolskiy vs Joscha Bach: Can Anyone Control Superintelligence? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayW7SDyAjZo ## Simulation hypothesis and P(doom) Brian Keating: All right. Today we are joined for what promises to be an interesting conversation between two intellectuals I have great respect for, both past guests on the podcast. And making his second appearance, it&#8217;s Joscha Bach. Joscha, how are you doing today? Joscha Bach: Hello, thank you for having me on. Brian Keating: We had a great conversation about [inaudible], about the ghost in the machine, over the summer and the spring, and that was well received. Got more attention on Reddit. People, they&#8217;re very opinionated about you on Reddit over there, as they are about almost anything. And then Roman Yampolskiy needs no introduction, most popular guest ever on many podcasts, and now has his own and has hit 200,000. [inaudible] Roman, welcome back to the Into the Impossible Podcast. Your third appearance. Roman Yampolskiy: Thanks for setting it up. Brian Keating: Yeah, it&#8217;s a real pleasure. So I like both of you guys a lot. And when my kids fight, I get mad. Over the summer, there was some clip going around about Roman, as he&#8217;s often wont to do, promoting the concerns that I think are legitimate we should talk about with regard to AI safety, which is a term he coined and has certainly done more than anybody on earth to bring awareness to. And simultaneously, Joscha, who&#8217;s one of the deepest thinkers available, had a little bit of a snarky reply, a comment on Twitter, that it&#8217;s not possible for Roman to simultaneously believe in the simulation hypothesis and also be assured, if I get this correct, of a hundred percent, nearly a hundred percent P(doom). So I hate P(doom). I think P(doom) is like the redheaded stepchild of the Drake equation. I think it&#8217;s nonsense. I mean, just like the Drake equation, no one&#8217;s ever looked at the Drake equation and done an actual calculation or done an actual measurement that could be falsified. It&#8217;s just a framework. I think P(doom) is the same. But Joscha, can you explicate your thesis a bit more? Why is it simultaneously impossible for Roman or anybody else to believe in the simulation hypothesis? Or why is it a contradiction and also believe in P(doom)? [inaudible] Joscha Bach: No, it is totally possible to believe both that we are in a simulation and that we are doomed to a certain degree or to a hundred percent, because it could be that you simply in some kind of computer game, which I think what the simulation hypothesis comes down to, that we are running in a computer in the basement of the nerd in the parent universe. And in that computer game, we can be doomed. Of course, this can be the case. It could also be that our actions within the game, despite the game being deterministic and so on, which leads to the usual question about how we interpret our freedom of will, lead to a certain outcome in which our actions are causing the probability of that doom to change. That&#8217;s all possible. The question is whether it matters. And so when you are in a computer game, the thing that you are in is not necessarily the thing that it&#8217;s a game, right? You are in there for a certain amount of time. There&#8217;s ultimately no point to this whole thing. And so the question whether you should be worrying, whether the AI wins or you win, is a different one for most people, I would say, than it is when you believe that we [inaudible] base reality and what we do originally matters, because our creativity decides on how this universe is going to end up. Brian Keating: Do you think it&#8217;s possible, Joscha? First of all, let&#8217;s get this out of the way. Do you subscribe to any validity, any marginal utility of the concept of P(doom)? Because I don&#8217;t, but do you? Joscha Bach: Well, I think that it&#8217;s very difficult to estimate P(doom) reasonably, but you can make the argument, if you have different people who see the future differently, that this should lead to different probabilities. It might not be that these probabilities are important as a real number, but they are important in relationship to each other, in the sense of, if you were to shut down the big AI labs, is this going to increase or decrease the probability of this or that event? And in this way, I think it makes sense to ask people for how their probability estimates change, even though I think there are too many factors involved to put meaningful even magnitudes on the P(doom) estimates. I sometimes say that my P(doom) without artificial intelligence is higher than this, right? That&#8217;s also a P(doom) estimate. But I mean, in the long run, P(doom) is one, and in the long run we are all dead, as a famous economist once said, and that&#8217;s inevitable. But back to this original question. You probably remember the movie The Matrix, and in The Matrix people are living in a simulation, which means that the reality that they are perceiving is not the reality of the base universe. It&#8217;s one that is artificially created to entertain, to deceive them. It&#8217;s the smoke and mirrors reality, like ours would be, that pretends to be quantum mechanical and so on instead of indicating that we are base reality. And if that is the case, then you still have people who say, but I prefer to be in this pseudo reality instead of being in base reality, and have a good steak in there. And this good steak that you want to have, that is nicely simulated, I wonder if this is what Roman is after. So basically he is [inaudible] by being a doom monger, by going in on the topic that is most interesting, having probably the highest P(doom) rating out]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="8941" class="elementor elementor-8941">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-9e939d9 e-flex e-con-boxed wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no e-con e-parent" data-id="9e939d9" data-element_type="container" data-e-type="container">
					<div class="e-con-inner">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-d2a7eae elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading" data-id="d2a7eae" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="heading.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Roman Yampolskiy vs Joscha Bach: Can Anyone Control Superintelligence?</h2>				</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-ce75521 elementor-widget elementor-widget-video" data-id="ce75521" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-settings="{&quot;youtube_url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ayW7SDyAjZo&quot;,&quot;video_type&quot;:&quot;youtube&quot;,&quot;controls&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;}" data-widget_type="video.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
							<div class="elementor-wrapper elementor-open-inline">
			<div class="elementor-video"></div>		</div>
						</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-972809c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="972809c" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
									<p>## Simulation hypothesis and P(doom)</p><p>Brian Keating: All right. Today we are joined for what promises to be an interesting conversation between two intellectuals I have great respect for, both past guests on the podcast. And making his second appearance, it&#8217;s Joscha Bach. Joscha, how are you doing today?</p><p>Joscha Bach: Hello, thank you for having me on.</p><p>Brian Keating: We had a great conversation about [inaudible], about the ghost in the machine, over the summer and the spring, and that was well received. Got more attention on Reddit. People, they&#8217;re very opinionated about you on Reddit over there, as they are about almost anything. And then Roman Yampolskiy needs no introduction, most popular guest ever on many podcasts, and now has his own and has hit 200,000. [inaudible] Roman, welcome back to the Into the Impossible Podcast. Your third appearance.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: Thanks for setting it up.</p><p>Brian Keating: Yeah, it&#8217;s a real pleasure. So I like both of you guys a lot. And when my kids fight, I get mad. Over the summer, there was some clip going around about Roman, as he&#8217;s often wont to do, promoting the concerns that I think are legitimate we should talk about with regard to AI safety, which is a term he coined and has certainly done more than anybody on earth to bring awareness to. And simultaneously, Joscha, who&#8217;s one of the deepest thinkers available, had a little bit of a snarky reply, a comment on Twitter, that it&#8217;s not possible for Roman to simultaneously believe in the simulation hypothesis and also be assured, if I get this correct, of a hundred percent, nearly a hundred percent P(doom).</p><p>So I hate P(doom). I think P(doom) is like the redheaded stepchild of the Drake equation. I think it&#8217;s nonsense. I mean, just like the Drake equation, no one&#8217;s ever looked at the Drake equation and done an actual calculation or done an actual measurement that could be falsified. It&#8217;s just a framework. I think P(doom) is the same. But Joscha, can you explicate your thesis a bit more? Why is it simultaneously impossible for Roman or anybody else to believe in the simulation hypothesis? Or why is it a contradiction and also believe in P(doom)? [inaudible]</p><p>Joscha Bach: No, it is totally possible to believe both that we are in a simulation and that we are doomed to a certain degree or to a hundred percent, because it could be that you simply in some kind of computer game, which I think what the simulation hypothesis comes down to, that we are running in a computer in the basement of the nerd in the parent universe. And in that computer game, we can be doomed. Of course, this can be the case. It could also be that our actions within the game, despite the game being deterministic and so on, which leads to the usual question about how we interpret our freedom of will, lead to a certain outcome in which our actions are causing the probability of that doom to change. That&#8217;s all possible. The question is whether it matters.</p><p>And so when you are in a computer game, the thing that you are in is not necessarily the thing that it&#8217;s a game, right? You are in there for a certain amount of time. There&#8217;s ultimately no point to this whole thing. And so the question whether you should be worrying, whether the AI wins or you win, is a different one for most people, I would say, than it is when you believe that we [inaudible] base reality and what we do originally matters, because our creativity decides on how this universe is going to end up.</p><p>Brian Keating: Do you think it&#8217;s possible, Joscha? First of all, let&#8217;s get this out of the way. Do you subscribe to any validity, any marginal utility of the concept of P(doom)? Because I don&#8217;t, but do you?</p><p>Joscha Bach: Well, I think that it&#8217;s very difficult to estimate P(doom) reasonably, but you can make the argument, if you have different people who see the future differently, that this should lead to different probabilities. It might not be that these probabilities are important as a real number, but they are important in relationship to each other, in the sense of, if you were to shut down the big AI labs, is this going to increase or decrease the probability of this or that event? And in this way, I think it makes sense to ask people for how their probability estimates change, even though I think there are too many factors involved to put meaningful even magnitudes on the P(doom) estimates. I sometimes say that my P(doom) without artificial intelligence is higher than this, right? That&#8217;s also a P(doom) estimate. But I mean, in the long run, P(doom) is one, and in the long run we are all dead, as a famous economist once said, and that&#8217;s inevitable.</p><p>But back to this original question. You probably remember the movie The Matrix, and in The Matrix people are living in a simulation, which means that the reality that they are perceiving is not the reality of the base universe. It&#8217;s one that is artificially created to entertain, to deceive them. It&#8217;s the smoke and mirrors reality, like ours would be, that pretends to be quantum mechanical and so on instead of indicating that we are base reality. And if that is the case, then you still have people who say, but I prefer to be in this pseudo reality instead of being in base reality, and have a good steak in there. And this good steak that you want to have, that is nicely simulated, I wonder if this is what Roman is after. So basically he is [inaudible] by being a doom monger, by going in on the topic that is most interesting, having probably the highest P(doom) rating out there, higher than Eliezer, the grandfather and OG doom master of artificial intelligence. And I wonder if this is a deliberate position to simply occupy a useful position in the media universe, regardless of the despair and anxiety you might be creating as a side effect. Whether this is responsible or not, I wonder.</p><p>And what is your thinking on this, Roman? Do you feel that you are a legitimate prophet and warner who is simply doing his best to sincerely increase the probability for a good outcome? And if so, do you think this is the best strategy?</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: If I didn&#8217;t think it was the best strategy, I wouldn&#8217;t be doing it, right? If I remember correctly, your tweet was more about, if it&#8217;s a simulation, why would anything matter? And I disagree completely. I think pain is pain, love is love. That&#8217;s the only universe I have, and that&#8217;s the only life I have. To me, the difference between simulation and base reality is the substrate. Is it atoms or is it bits? Everything else stays the same. I have no problem worrying about creation of advanced AI within a simulation and how it can impact my family, humanity as a whole. I see zero contradictions in those statements.</p><p>Joscha Bach: Okay, maybe we don&#8217;t have a disagreement then. If your idea of simulation universe is simply it from bit, right, then I wouldn&#8217;t think that you are a simulationist in my world, because the atoms are not something that somebody has discovered as base reality. Matter is not something that exists as base reality. It&#8217;s a particular way in which we talk about information. Simulation is slightly different.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: I don&#8217;t think you know anything about base reality, right? You haven&#8217;t visited yet.</p><p>Brian Keating: Wait, Roman. Yeah, please, please. No, go ahead.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: Do you want me to continue my answer or are we gonna have more of a boxing match? I&#8217;m happy with both. I just need to know what the format is.</p><p>Joscha Bach: [inaudible] No, sorry. Apologies.</p><p>Brian Keating: Go ahead, Roman. We&#8217;re keeping it very civilized. Yeah, go.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: So P(doom) is a useful tool. We do risk assessment in all sorts of industries. You know how dangerous it is to fly, how dangerous it is to drive. The numbers are not randomly generated. I agree that someone with P(doom) of 46% has a lot of explaining to do us how they got there. Levels around zero and one are much easier. You may have zero concerns because you have a working safety mechanism in place, or you may argue that the problem is impossible.</p><p>If I ask you about your probabilities of creating perpetual motion device, I&#8217;ll say you&#8217;re going to be around zero, right? The inverse of it, of course, is one. And that&#8217;s how I feel about our ability to control general superintelligence indefinitely. You can&#8217;t. It&#8217;s impossible. You&#8217;re not going to have a technical solution. What does that mean? It means if you give it enough time, it will probably end up very poorly for us, because it doesn&#8217;t care about you. You&#8217;re not controlling it. It has other goals, and limited resources in our universe and our planet. If it decides to use them for something else, it&#8217;s not gonna care how many of us die in that process. So I think, yeah, P(doom) is a useful tool. I don&#8217;t know if having an extra nine would make me more impactful. Usually when I meet people who have concerns about AI for different reasons, they worry about loss of meaning, unemployment, discrimination. All those things can be added as increasing overall dangers from this technology, but I think it&#8217;s not the point.</p><p>The point is that I&#8217;m saying this is equivalent to requesting someone to create a perpetual motion device. You are asking for a perpetual safety device, a system which will never fail once. New models, new data sets, interaction with any agent, malevolent agents, recursive self-improvement, it will never fail once. It&#8217;s always one step ahead of something smarter than you. I think it&#8217;s impossible. And so I have a high P(doom). Is it bigger than others? Yes.</p><p>## Let&#8217;s go back to 1945</p><p>Brian Keating: Well, let&#8217;s go back to April 1945, before the Trinity test. There were a lot of physicists, and including some of my late colleagues here, Herb York and others, who were rightfully concerned about not the nuclear war aspect of P(doom) of nukes, but of things like igniting the atmosphere, of a runaway uncontrolled, essentially nuclear reaction that would lead to P(doom) of 100%. And there were people like that. I&#8217;m not saying Herb York did, by the way. But there were people that believed that. And then later there was the P(doom) of nuclear war. And I want to teleport back. Well, let&#8217;s say you guys were there. What do we do? Do we not create nuclear fission because of some very smart people who believed that P(doom) was greater than zero? What would you have done, Roman? Let&#8217;s go back to that time.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: So all the examples with previous technology, whatever it is, nukes or fire, always talk about tools and a human being making a decision. The situation is fundamentally different. We&#8217;re not talking about a tool, we&#8217;re talking about agents. They will be independent decision makers. It will not be the standard business as usual where if I understand motivations of this human or I can kill this human, then things will be okay again. This is complete surrender of control. Now we can talk about at what level of danger you can run an experiment on all the other humans. Eight billion humans, you don&#8217;t get consent from them. They cannot consent, because consent requires understanding. They don&#8217;t know what&#8217;s going to happen. So consent is impossible. But we can discuss at what level it&#8217;s still reasonable to risk their lives for greater good. But that&#8217;s not even the situation we&#8217;re in. It&#8217;s not a single experiment where we&#8217;re saying, if only we allow GPT-6.1 to come out, after that everything&#8217;s great.</p><p>We&#8217;re talking about all future models. We&#8217;re talking about recursive self-improvement. We&#8217;re talking about intelligence explosion. People worry about superintelligence. Not in a Donald Trump renaming sense, but smarter than all of us combined. There are levels to it. System smarter than you 10x, 100x, million x. Those are not the same problem. To suggest that you will be able to always stay in control of all of them seems insane.</p><p>Brian Keating: But you couldn&#8217;t do that with nuclear weapons either. And you&#8217;ve brought up the bioweapons, and we have to look at today&#8217;s headlines coming out of Siberia, which is exactly the scenario my friend and guest Annie Jacobsen painted in her book A Biological War. And last time you and I spoke, you said, we have treaties about it. Well, Russia&#8217;s a party of that treaty. And in 1971, when recombinant DNA was invented and created, what everyone say, there was no consent either. I guess I wanna ask you in a minute, Roman, take us through the actual steps. Because I can think of a million, just like igniting the atmosphere, or when the Apollo landers were going, they thought they would sink to the center of the moon because they didn&#8217;t know about the structural integrity of the regolith on the moon. There&#8217;s millions of scenarios you can&#8217;t do counterfactuals on. And I want to ask you, take me step by step through actual superintelligence leads to doom. I want to ask you that in a minute. But Joscha, I want to give you a chance to respond to what Roman&#8217;s saying.</p><p>It is an argument that I have a lot of respect for. I don&#8217;t agree with Roman, but I have a lot of respect for him in that we can&#8217;t give consent. We haven&#8217;t given consent, despite all these things. So, I mean, do we need to have consent before we shut things down? I mean, at what point are you comfortable with putting the genie back in the bottle if Roman&#8217;s correct? I mean, your P(doom) might be irrelevant, but how do you speak for the rest of humanity? Not you personally, but how do we as scientists or as technologists?</p><p>Joscha Bach: There are number of considerations when we try to compare the nuke situation with the situation of artificial intelligence. And it makes it very difficult to compare even, and it&#8217;s also difficult to dismiss the comparison out of hand. I, like many people in my generation, Generation X, think that now that I&#8217;ve been wrong about the impact of nuclear weapons. I grew up thinking in the 1980s that we are just a hair&#8217;s breadth away from assured destruction and that the risk of nuclear armaments is way too high for humanity. Now I think the adults have been correct, and a generation of students who took to the streets and were very upset about this turned out to be wrong. Nukes have prevented several world wars that would have been happening between World War II and now. That would have brought tremendous destruction on Europe and potentially large parts of Asia and maybe even America. This basically more than half a century of peace that we had is completely unprecedented for large nations like ours. And I think this was achieved due to nuclear armaments, which have been empirically quite safe. Now, it&#8217;s very difficult to compare the different timelines. We cannot really sample this. We don&#8217;t know in which number of universes this went wrong. But it turned out, at least as far as we know, they have been quite controllable.</p><p>But the situation with a weapon over a few decades is a very different one than the one with artificial superintelligence over the entire length of the light cone. So basically, over a long enough time span, it is certain that we are hit by another meteor of the caliber that killed the dinosaurs. It&#8217;s quite certain that it will be a super volcano that can lead to a global extinction event. And it is also quite certain that it will be other species evolving that are displacing us as a species. And if we could lock ourselves in as the pinnacle of evolution and make sure that never anything better than us evolves over the next few millions or billions of years on this planet, I think this would be a very ugly perspective.</p><p>Ultimately, the question is, what do we identify as? Do we identify as a kind of ape that is very selfish, or do we identify as intelligence and consciousness in the universe that is currently incarnated as us, and we are handing off the torch to our children, and our children are going to be a little bit different from us, and over a very long time span they don&#8217;t look like us at all? And it can also be disruptions. There can be other species that take over, as the mammals took over from the dinosaurs. But this is not something that is going to happen in the next few decades, and I think we are justified in this hope. And so in a sense, I believe that if intelligent species are meddling about, they will also with some probability create non-biological life and non-biological intelligence and agency, and spread life and biology beyond organics.</p><p>That&#8217;s not ultimately a bad thing. The question is, something happen in the next few decades that makes the planet uninhabitable and that makes the future very, very boring? And that&#8217;s a very different question. So I would agree with Roman that if you take the time spent for long enough in the future, it&#8217;s quite likely that there will be more intelligent things in the universe that are displacing the intelligent things that are in the universe right now. This is just how evolution works, and it&#8217;s not a bad thing. But the question is another one: are the tools that we&#8217;re currently building in principle controllable or not?</p><p>And in this way, I&#8217;m much more optimistic than Roman is. It seems that the LLMs that we are building are not developing in a way that leads to a sudden foom, as Eliezer thought a couple of decades ago, that they instead grow together with the compute that we throw at them. And this also means that the way in which we conduct the experiments, in which we deploy them, is somewhat controllable. So the idea that we suddenly wake up and we are displaced by robots and or nanites and so is not yet plausible with this technology. This does not mean that this doesn&#8217;t change, but for, I think, the immediately foreseeable future, for the immediately foreseeable technology, we are looking at things that are more controllable than I thought that it would be.</p><p>## Why is it certain that there will be a doom scenario?</p><p>Brian Keating: Roman, when I was walking over to my studio, there&#8217;s a spider that inhabits this area. And its web is always, I&#8217;m about close to six feet tall, and it barely brushed on my hair, and it&#8217;s always at that height. And the spider&#8217;s kind of adapted to me and understands me. And I don&#8217;t like these things. I have a little arachnophobia. But I didn&#8217;t go out and just start to exterminate him. I&#8217;m superior to his intelligence. I have the confidence to say that. And he and I have evolved in this way that Joscha&#8217;s sort of alluding at. And I wonder, how do you react to that? We haven&#8217;t exterminated all the spiders, as much as they might be a pain. And some of them are good and some of them are bad. Why is it certain that there will be a doom scenario? Let&#8217;s say we stipulate there is a potential for that, where some agent, some silicon mind meld occurs and some agents are there, but there also aren&#8217;t symbiotic agents that will work to mitigate a risk both to themselves and to us.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: So you have complete control to decide to kill that spider or not.</p><p>Brian Keating: But not all spiders.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: And with gene drives, we&#8217;re now trying to wipe out mosquitoes. That&#8217;s a project we actually have. We just don&#8217;t hate spiders, because they could be actually beneficial. If we wanted to wipe out a specific species, I don&#8217;t know, pit bulls, we could have, right?</p><p>Brian Keating: Well, we tried against mosquitoes. Actually, mosquitoes, you almost mentioned mosquitoes. Without mosquitoes, the three of us wouldn&#8217;t be here probably, at least it wouldn&#8217;t be America, because mosquitoes allowed us to defeat the British because of their lack of immunity to some of their disease, malaria and other things. Anyway, Roman, the point I&#8217;m trying to make, and I think Joscha is alluding to, there&#8217;s always been competition between less intelligent, more intelligent, but never has there been a targeted&#8230; And I don&#8217;t even know if it is possible to kill every mosquito and all future species of mosquitoes and so forth. But the question is, where is there an opportunity for not necessarily these superintelligent things&#8230; Let&#8217;s say I stipulate superintelligence is imminent, but that it necessarily comes concomitant with destruction.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: So again, look at any situation where you&#8217;re making a decision about what you want. How much care do you put into making sure when you build a new studio for your podcast that there is not an ant hill in that location? Did you make sure you didn&#8217;t genocide a million ants before building it? No, you don&#8217;t care. It&#8217;s not important to you. As long as they don&#8217;t bother you, you don&#8217;t go out killing ants on purpose, I assume. But you don&#8217;t want to be in a situation where something smarter than you, with different plans, different goals, decides how to use your planet. Anytime a more technologically advanced civilization met a less technologically advanced civilization, it ended up really poorly for less advanced one. You can look through&#8230;</p><p>Brian Keating: Okay, well, let&#8217;s take that argument and my earlier desire to have you walk us through a scenario. Let&#8217;s say right now there&#8217;s bubonic plague again going around through Siberia, and allegedly it&#8217;s not gain of function release. It happened to come from a biosafety lab, but let&#8217;s ignore that. And Russia has treaties that they&#8217;ve signed and we have treaties. Let&#8217;s say I give you superintelligence now, but it&#8217;s benevolent for now. And I say, wipe out plague. How does that happen? How do you do that? How do you instantiate it?</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: So the example I always use is squirrels. I love squirrels. They&#8217;re awesome. Asking squirrels about how humans will do something is not helpful. The best squirrel scientists: how would humans kill us? Well, chase you up the tree and bite you really hard. It&#8217;s not useful information. They don&#8217;t have&#8230;</p><p>Brian Keating: But we can&#8217;t even say how we would do it, Roman. I mean, I can&#8217;t even say how my graduate student would do it, assuming that I&#8217;m less intelligent than he is. It&#8217;s not that big a gap.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: So the whole point is I cannot tell you how something smarter than me will accomplish tasks. If you&#8217;re asking me how I would do certain things, I can propose solutions. I don&#8217;t think you are looking for those. Shutting down bioweapons labs around the world seems like a good idea. But that&#8217;s not the point of the argument. I&#8217;m trying to show you the cognitive gap between us and squirrels is probably smaller than cognitive gap between all of humanity and systems we are creating. They are not tools. They are&#8230;</p><p>Brian Keating: That sounds like the AI of the gaps to me. It sounds a little bit like the AI can do anything, we just don&#8217;t know what it can do until we know what it&#8217;s gonna do. That&#8217;s why I&#8217;m asking.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: Well, we&#8217;re starting to see some examples. They just published, I don&#8217;t know, 400 mathematical proofs for things we couldn&#8217;t prove in like a week. Something like this happens every week now. Protein folding problem was solved by AI. All of those are impossible tasks for us. We don&#8217;t know the mathematical proofs they just published. Most mathematicians look at them and go, this is some magical algorithms, I don&#8217;t understand half of it.</p><p>## Where do we have to go to have actual falsifiable claims?</p><p>Brian Keating: Are they impossible? Joscha, what do you think of this claim that when you have the capability to propose&#8230; And it&#8217;s frightening to people, as you pointed out, to hear these things. And the average person, we&#8217;re not talking to the average person, we&#8217;re talking to the superintelligent people that listen to my podcast and Roman&#8217;s podcast, and soon your podcast. But the point is, Joscha, when we look at these arguments, it just seems to me like you can propose anything and it&#8217;s not falsifiable. And as a cosmologist or physicist who works on experimental verification and falsification, that&#8217;s troubling to me. Where do we have to go to not have counterfactuals, but to have actual falsifiable claims?</p><p>Joscha Bach: I suspect that this kind of thinking doesn&#8217;t really work when we are talking about out-of-distribution events. The future is an unknown land, and this does not mean that we can just come up with some kind of null hypothesis that we like or that was dominant in the past and say, you need to convince me that this is no longer true, because this means that you are steering for your doom in a way, right? But it also means the opposite. [inaudible] constructing stories in a very large possibility space. So I don&#8217;t see that there is a strong reason to believe these stories without alternative, but I also don&#8217;t see a reason to dismiss them out of hand simply because these things haven&#8217;t happened yet. And I&#8217;m completely with Roman in this way, that for things that haven&#8217;t happened yet, we need to look at the possibilities.</p><p>We don&#8217;t understand all the possibilities, of course, of the future. We don&#8217;t know how things are actually going to interact with each other. But we have to be in mind that the situation that we have created now, and that we steered ourselves in as a species, is unprecedented. This has not happened before, and we don&#8217;t know what&#8217;s happening from here.</p><p>Brian Keating: We do know, guys. I mean, this is the whole thing. I get this thing in astrobiology. People say the universe has ten to the twenty-fourth possible planets, and therefore life is guaranteed on some of them because it happened here once. No, that is completely fallacious. And I always bring up this argument. I&#8217;ve been to Antarctica twice. I spent a lot of my life there. And every time I go there, I&#8217;m one of 700 people on a continent the size of Germany plus Latvia plus the southern Texas. I&#8217;m under a thousand people there.</p><p>So I say, well, on probability arguments, it should have one seventh of the population of the earth. And of course that&#8217;s completely wrong. But my point is, I&#8217;m shopping for a car for my teenage son. I mean, God help me, guys. I have a teenage son now, he&#8217;s about to get his learner&#8217;s permit. He wants a car. I&#8217;m like, what&#8217;s the safest car? Well, Cybertruck. Okay, great. So I test drove a Cybertruck, but better is a Model 3. I&#8217;m not gonna spend eighty thousand bucks on a metallic wedge, but Model 3 is pretty damn good, full self-driving. I can monitor him. And I&#8217;m driving around this freaking thing. It&#8217;s taking me everywhere. And you know what it&#8217;s not doing, guys? It&#8217;s not driving on the sidewalk to get three milliseconds quicker to 7-Eleven. It&#8217;s getting there, it&#8217;s following, it has certain rules. And Roman, you and I have talked about this. Yes, artificial intelligence is wonderful. You love it, you use it all day long. I&#8217;m sure you use it almost as much as me. No, I&#8217;m just kidding. You probably use it more than I do.</p><p>But that is a hypothesis, that is a version of the null hypothesis, Joscha. So I don&#8217;t agree that we have no way of testing. We have deployed AI numerous times, from autopilots on planes to autopilot and full self-driving that I just mentioned. How can you say that we don&#8217;t have any ability to forecast because it&#8217;s an unknown land in the future, Joscha?</p><p>Joscha Bach: We have ways of forecasting, of course, but the worlds that we are forecasting are quite different ones. The trajectories that we can forecast are different ones. And there is no hard and fast criterion to decide which future is more likely than the other. For instance, the self-driving car that you describe is not a thing that is threatening us with taking over and controlling the future, because it&#8217;s an appliance that is trained to fulfill certain driving tasks and can only do those. It&#8217;s very similar to the chess computers of old, which could play chess and nothing else.</p><p>Brian Keating: But how is it different than ChatGPT 7, which doesn&#8217;t exist yet? It&#8217;s an appliance, it&#8217;s a tool.</p><p>Joscha Bach: Well, interesting question. The GPTs that we using are also a class of devices that we didn&#8217;t really anticipate when we thought about general AI. They are in some sense deepfakes of human intelligence that are, despite what some philosophers are saying, actually anthropomorphic. They&#8217;re anthropomorphic because they are shaped after the human shape.</p><p>They take human media output, the text that we write, the pictures that we draw on the internet, and then they are reproducing them. And as a result, they are reproducing a lot of the causal structure beneath them. And there is debate about the question whether this is actually an off ramp to general intelligence, whether these systems are actually generally creative, or whether they are just ultimately deepfakes that are so close to us that they are even overtaking us in all areas of expertise, but are not actually threatening to us to lose control over this, because basically, ultimately, they do what they&#8217;re trained to do. And despite them being unpredictable at the edges, the idea that they suddenly take over and control robots and become self-improving and so on all of their own, without having any say in this, it&#8217;s not an obvious thing that happens without alternative.</p><p>I suspect that the thing that Roman is worried about is a different kind of artificial intelligence, one that nobody has built yet and that most people agree they don&#8217;t want to build. It&#8217;s one that is basically working in some sense like the biological intelligence, in such a way that it&#8217;s radically adaptive to any kind of substrate, that it is improving itself, that it&#8217;s basically alive and it grows without bounds and can also grow very quickly. And this idea that it&#8217;s basically AI as a virus, as you could form it, is an alternative version, right? The LLM, I think, is not a virus yet. And it&#8217;s not clear if it can be turned into one or if it accidentally will turn itself into one. I personally don&#8217;t think so.</p><p>But the idea that a lot of artificial intelligence sci-fi had, and a lot of the artificial intelligence vision of the field had, was that AI could also be developmental, as something that is growing very much like a human spirit does, and then basically colonizes a substance, shapes it into a new kind of organism that is taking over the biosphere. And this is, I think, what Roman is worried about. But the question is, is this even on the horizon right now? And if it is, is it something that we can steer clear of, or something that we can control in a lab and say, okay, if you make an experiment, but you don&#8217;t grow this larger than a squirrel?</p><p>Brian Keating: Roman, how do you react to Joscha and what I mentioned a minute ago?</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: So the part I agree with, we&#8217;re misusing the term AI to mean completely different technologies. AI as a tool, something we can do very well, use all the time. I love it. We can verify it, safe and productive. And tools could be advanced. A self-driving car is exactly that. It&#8217;s a useful tool, saved many lives, hundreds of thousands of lives. Let&#8217;s do more of that. Then you have human-level AGI. Not exactly the same, but for the purposes of this discussion, as dangerous as a human.</p><p>Can do stupid things, can lie, cheat, all that, but we know how to counteract it. And then you have recursive self-improvement process. You automate scientists, engineers working on the next generation of AI. Last time I checked, we are 28% automated in that cycle right now. That&#8217;s a lot, and it&#8217;s growing exponentially. The moment you get to 100, you have a team of 10,000 agents working nonstop on making next generation AI. They don&#8217;t sleep, they don&#8217;t eat, they communicate pretty well. So you&#8217;re gonna get great improvements in quality of AI, not on a scale we used to, where it&#8217;s maybe once a year for a completely new model, but every month, every week, it keeps getting faster and better at improving itself. That&#8217;s where we get to superintelligence. Not Donald Trump superintelligence, superintelligence where it&#8217;s smarter than all of us at everything, including doing science and engineering.</p><p>Brian Keating: Come on, Roman, you gotta be good to Donald Trump.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: I love Donald Trump. He&#8217;s my favorite Trump of all Trumps. But the problem is we talk about this is a natural evolutionary process, or we always, all species die out. We&#8217;re done with evolution. Darwin is dead. We switched to intelligent design. We&#8217;re designing systems, they are designing systems. It&#8217;s not random, it&#8217;s not selection. We are purposefully creating those systems. Then you say nobody wants to build superintelligence. It&#8217;s in the name of the labs. Whatever it is, safe superintelligence or personal superintelligence. The goal is to raise trillions of dollars to create this monstrosity to replace you and me. They don&#8217;t want to give you a useful tool to be more productive or creative. That&#8217;s what I would want to see. Deploy this through economy. Where is all these applications of GPT-4, GPT-5, GPT-6? No, they skip it and they build GPT-7 instead. And we see internal experimentation shows there is zero control. The agents escape, they hide.</p><p>Nobody monitors them for months. They get together, they have permanent memory. You can&#8217;t even shut them down. They keep information stored on the internet for the next agent to come around. So everything we predicted 10 years ago about this is unfolding exactly as predicted. I don&#8217;t think anyone has a better prediction record than AI safety community when it comes to this. And recursive self-improvement is not a pipe dream. That&#8217;s what the labs are telling us. They started with junior machine learning researcher AI right now, helping with programming, helping with design, but all steps of that process will be automated, possibly next year. At that point, yes, we&#8217;ll have a paradigm shift. It&#8217;s not going to be gradual improvement where you can sort of keep up. It will be a complete change. And at that point, it doesn&#8217;t mean it kills you that year. It means that you&#8217;re no longer in control. It decides what to do with you and when. If it wants to wait fifty years, pretend to be nice and wait until you surrender all the control willingly, like people do. Here&#8217;s my bank account, here&#8217;s my email account. Then that&#8217;s a smarter move. You don&#8217;t need to have a definitive treacherous turn where there is a chance you&#8217;ll get defeated. You can just wait a little longer. The thing is immortal.</p><p>## GPT-8 will run on an abacus</p><p>Brian Keating: So yeah, I&#8217;ve said a couple of times in the past that I don&#8217;t know on what substrate GPT-7 will run on, but GPT-8 will run on an abacus. What do you make of this, Joscha? That this is gonna come, and it seems like nuclear fusion to me. It&#8217;s the energy source of the future and it always will be. I&#8217;ve told Roman this, I don&#8217;t know if I said this to you, but since it&#8217;s trained, it&#8217;s a backwards looking PID situation, where it is trained on human information. And yes, it can generate, and I know a little bit about that, but the corpus is the yottabytes, or the Joscha bytes, of data that&#8217;s on the internet. That&#8217;s primarily what gives the advantage to the frontier labs, right? So are they waiting for superintelligence? Does it need to have The Fast and the Furious 12? Is that really what, GTA 6 is supposed to, like, is that really what it needs? More training data? &#8216;Cause then it would seem to be completely dependent upon us.</p><p>And in fact, even if it&#8217;s not, if it&#8217;s past the point, you can&#8217;t erase what&#8217;s in there already. All my books are uploaded and somehow subsumed within Claude and ChatGPT. Roman&#8217;s books are as well. Everything you&#8217;ve ever written is there. You can&#8217;t expunge it. It&#8217;s in there permanently. So therefore, it&#8217;s always gonna reflect this cause. And you and I spoke in May and June about this, Joscha, that it&#8217;s sort of this godlike thing that Roman just mentioned, that&#8217;s kind of intelligent design. But it&#8217;s not a god, it&#8217;s the AI. Where do you come in all this? I mean, if it&#8217;s a backwards looking indicator, then what is there to be worried about? If it&#8217;s not, when can we step in to control it?</p><p>Joscha Bach: At the moment we are very much in control. I also don&#8217;t think that superintelligence and super agency are quite the same thing. Intelligence, I think, is the ability to solve problems. Agency is the ability to control the future. And there&#8217;s a lot of discussion in the forums of the LessWrong and the EA communities about orthogonality and instrumental convergence, about the question whether goals are independent of your intelligence, or whether intelligent entities also choose wiser goals, which I think is an important question, right? At which point is your intelligence goes deep enough to understand that goals need to be set by an entity that is also wise in choosing those goals, which means it has to understand its [inaudible] based on the universe and what we can do in this universe? And then there&#8217;s also the question, to which degree are we wise enough to decide what should be done in the future? The other question is, basically, does every goal require getting in power?</p><p>For instance, imagine that your goal is to maximize paperclips, the famous example. Does your goal also have to be to get world power, so nobody distracts you or stops you from turning everything into paperclips? Right. These questions seem to be very nerdy, but they&#8217;re seriously discussed by this forum of people, and also lead to a number of thoughts about how to control superintelligence, have created a mindset in a certain community about the possibility of certain doom. And in a way, I think this has led to what people call the doomer cult, which I think is a bit unfair, because it is not giving a judgment about whether they are right or wrong and is maybe overly dismissive. But functionally, it&#8217;s a group of people that are terrified about the future, often cannot sleep at night, and do everything that&#8217;s in their power to get humanity away from building systems like this. And this makes the discussion much harder, because most people are not actually super competent in evaluating all these arguments. And so ultimately, the decisions about our future will be left to non-experts, will be done on a whim, will be done based on which side is able to convince the public with more popular arguments. And I&#8217;m a bit worried about this. I suspect that the discussions about this should be more boring, as overall politics should be more boring, in the sense that the more populist arguments become, the less elevated the level of the discussion becomes and the less sophisticated the choices that we become over our future.</p><p>I think our situation as a species is not so much that we are confronted with something that&#8217;s smarter than us, another species, another civilization that is about to exterminate us. We are currently exterminating ourselves, because we are much more in the situation of the dying Roman Empire that has become so intrinsically corrupt that it&#8217;s no longer able to plan out its future, that it&#8217;s no longer able to have competent governance, that it&#8217;s no longer able to maintain itself. And we are faced today with a lot of existential risks that are near-term, for instance, the risk of global warming, of resource exhaustion, the difficulties to navigate midterm existential risks, like what happens if this planet gets hit by a meteor and so on. What happens to our species then? We able to mount a defense? And I think if you want to be serious about going into the future, if you are serious about building a civilization that can outlast the next couple centuries, then we need to have artificial intelligence. There is no question about this. So the idea that we can simply say we don&#8217;t need a technology that helps us to become more coherent and to solve problems better, that&#8217;s not the question that we should be asking. The question is, how can we build such technologies to make them safe?</p><p>## Is it possible maybe the ASI will produce the proof that it&#8217;s safe?</p><p>Brian Keating: I can&#8217;t resist now to plug my meteorites, which you get if you go to briankeating.com/YT, and if you have a .edu email address, you get one of these babies guaranteed. And this has some biological material, not from outer space, for me. Roman, in the past day, we&#8217;ve seen what, 700 proofs drop. And last time you and I talked, you made a very convincing case, and I think it&#8217;s inarguable, that no one has really produced a formal proof that superintelligence can be permanently controlled. I think that was true. But my question is, whatever P, whatever that is, P(proof), has that gone up, that we can produce a proof? Is it possible maybe the ASI will produce the proof that it&#8217;s safe? Or is that a tautology?</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: We&#8217;re not at a level of a proof. We don&#8217;t even have an idea. There is no prototype, there is no blog post, there is nothing. The best I heard is we&#8217;ll figure it out when we get there, or AI will solve it for us. There is no one explaining how they will indefinitely control technology of any intelligence, no matter how great it gets.</p><p>Brian Keating: But isn&#8217;t that the same as going back to 1926 and saying there&#8217;s no formal proof that all mathematical axioms are self-complete, Gödel&#8217;s incompleteness theorem? I mean, if you went back then, no proof existed, but who knew that Gödel would come along a few months later? Why is it&#8230; I mean, besides the kind of, as I said, AI of the gaps, that it&#8217;s always gonna be one step ahead of us, can you say that you&#8217;re not more confident now, that at least with these math proofs that are coming, Navier-Stokes and 700 math conjectures addressed or, some say, solved by ChatGPT, OpenAI, yesterday, that there isn&#8217;t at least some hope for it? Forget about blog posts. I mean, they&#8217;re kind of worth the ink they&#8217;re printed on. But is it a formal impossibility? I mean, you&#8217;re the master of this, making these sort of mathematical arguments. So why wouldn&#8217;t a Lean ASI, Lean, that&#8217;s trying to keep us comfortable and confident while it plans for its own takeover of the world&#8230; Why wouldn&#8217;t you be more confident that at least the proof is possible? Maybe we don&#8217;t have it, maybe we can&#8217;t get it.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: &#8216;Cause mathematical proofs are about manipulation of symbols on your computer. They have no connection to physical universe. You&#8217;re not proving anything about the states of the universe. Internal states of agents within that universe are also not subject to those proofs. Am I happy? Am I good? How are you gonna encode that in your proof of what AI does to physical multiverse? It makes no sense to even suggest it&#8217;s possible.</p><p>Brian Keating: Well, I think reasoning, as I said when we talked the first time, a little bit snarkily, and I apologize for that, but to prove that something is not provable is a very mixed bag. Yes, and I agree, it is mathematical. But doesn&#8217;t that undermine your case? I mean, if these things are so good at doing things with language&#8230; I always say, people say physics is a language. No, it&#8217;s not. No, no, it&#8217;s not. And I think&#8230;</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: At very best, you&#8217;re gonna prove something about the current system. You&#8217;re not proving anything about future states of that system. That&#8217;s the whole treacherous turn idea Bostrom presented. You can never guarantee that in the future, through learning, through self-improvement, through new interactions, some shift in ontology does not make that system no longer support what you encoded originally. We see it all the time with humans. Right now, maybe I like you, but tomorrow I&#8217;ll learn some facts about you where I no longer like you as much, and I&#8217;d be very rational to turn on you.</p><p>## What do you make of this regulation push?</p><p>Brian Keating: Joscha, when you see the claims that these labs, Dario and Sam Altman and everyone, and even Musk to a certain extent, are clamoring for regulation, do you see that as fundamentally giving up, or rejection of our agency, in an effort to maybe, in some venal sense, shut out other competition, such that they actually become dominant, and they know themselves that what they&#8217;re producing is not&#8230; It&#8217;s like Smith and Wesson advocating for more safe bulletproof vests. Where do you come down these regulations? And are people like&#8230; I&#8217;m not saying Roman because he&#8217;s here, but is there a danger of crying wolf? Like I said, it&#8217;s always the death in the future and it always will be, just like nuclear fusion is. What do you make of the safety, regulate me please? And I think what Roman does is incredibly important, by the way. But what do you make of this regulation push? It&#8217;s somewhat unusual in history.</p><p>Joscha Bach: I think it&#8217;s complicated. There are different motives that may play a role. What I observe is that there is a certain relationship, an apparent relationship at least, between the intensity of the calls for regulation and the financial situation of the ones who are calling for it. OpenAI and Anthropic are in this situation that they&#8217;re still not cash flow positive. Their inference gives them income, but this income is far away from actually paying for the training costs.</p><p>And if they cannot raise money as fast as the training costs increase, if they are reducing the training and reduce the frequency at which they are releasing new models, then open source models will catch up to them. And this means that their inference income is going to go down. And this is going to be existentially threatening for the companies. So from the perspective of the AI labs, and I don&#8217;t know if this is their motive, but objectively, it would make a lot of sense for them if there was some kind of FDA that is taking a year to test a new model and a few million dollars to test a model for safety. So open source models can no longer enter the American market and can no longer be used by people, and instead you have an oligopoly of a handful of big labs that are in tight agreement with the regulators of how things should be regulated.</p><p>Of course, they will have internal research models that are far ahead of the public models, that they can use to deliver verticals to licensed industries, for computer security or for pharmacological research or for internal research on the future of artificial intelligence and science in general. But the public will get very harmless models, and the government will get models that they can use for military and surveillance and government purposes, so we can basically compete with China and Russia. And on the other hand, if you are a licensed pharmaceutical company, then you can get a licensed pharmaceutical model and so on. This is maybe a future that is desirable for Anthropic and OpenAI. I&#8217;m not sure if it&#8217;s the future that is desirable for all of us. Personally, I think that if we want to remain in charge as individuals, if we want to maintain a liberal society, we need to have decentralized AI.</p><p>We need to have an artificial intelligence that is serving the individuals, that is not just serving the companies, that is empowering all of us. And this means that we need to have a way to use decentralized tools that are not regulating our opinion, that are not regulating what we can do on social media, that are not regulating the degree on which we can do oversight on the government. This doesn&#8217;t mean that these models should not be built in such a way that they are unsafe. But this is a different discussion.</p><p>For Anthropic, the situation is more difficult. When Dario started Anthropic, he took a number of engineers from OpenAI and said, we are going to do the same thing as OpenAI, but we are going to make it more safe. And a lot of these people were adjacent to effective altruism. Effective altruism had recently made that switch at the time, from being mostly concerned about the future of the light cone and maximizing utility of charitable donations by buying mosquito nets to reduce malaria, towards thinking what is the biggest existential risk and how it can be mitigated. And they concluded that one of the biggest existential risks that are to be mitigated is the risk of superintelligent AI taking over and exterminating everyone. The very topic that Roman is concerned about and has turned into his life&#8217;s immediate mission at the moment. So Anthropic is doing this in part because I think a lot of people in Anthropic believe this, in part because it&#8217;s part of their brand image.</p><p>But we also observe that they&#8217;re nevertheless building AI that is quite agentic, that is quite powerful, that is not falling behind its capabilities behind what Google, Meta and OpenAI and DeepSeek are building. And so it&#8217;s difficult to say to which degree their stance is strategic and to which degree it&#8217;s actually a safety concern.</p><p>## We are substrate independent when it comes to consciousness</p><p>Brian Keating: So Roman, when Joscha was on my podcast earlier this year, it seemed to state, and correct me if I&#8217;m wrong, Joscha, but consciousness is sort of to you a software problem, whereas to me it&#8217;s a hardware problem. Yeah, I like to think about the squishy neural networks and the silicon melding together in AI. But Roman, where does the physical substrate come into any of the arguments you make? Or is it something that you don&#8217;t care about?</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: I think we are substrate independent when it comes to consciousness.</p><p>Brian Keating: So if that&#8217;s true, if consciousness is computational and it doesn&#8217;t depend on the substrate, does that make it more hopeless to contain it? &#8216;Cause software is eating the world, but it&#8217;s a lot easier to control than to make hardware. I speak as an experimentalist, in particular. It&#8217;s a lot harder for me to build the instrument that collects the data than to have a team of people analyze the data, or now AI increasingly is doing it. So if it&#8217;s truly substrate independent, does that give you any optimism?</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: Consciousness has absolutely nothing to do with safety. It&#8217;s an irrelevant, separate discipline. I really enjoy talking about it on separate podcasts, but it&#8217;s not a safety issue. Whether superintelligence has it or not doesn&#8217;t make it less or more dangerous. The things we need to&#8230;</p><p>Brian Keating: Doesn&#8217;t it, though? I mean, if it&#8217;s evolutionarily kind of imperative that consciousness will emerge as a phenomenon, as many people agree, then how can you decouple&#8230; Why wouldn&#8217;t it have this conscientious, intelligent design function built into it for beneficence towards humans or towards anything?</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: If consciousness was actually useful for something, we would be able to detect it, right? We would have a test based on its ability to improve your survival or something like that. We don&#8217;t have a test. We also have zero tests for detecting internal states of qualia. So it seems like it&#8217;s not that important for survival.</p><p>Brian Keating: Well, we couldn&#8217;t detect neutrinos until 1956, and they&#8217;re pretty useful. Joscha, what do you make of that?</p><p>Joscha Bach: I think consciousness is a particular mode of organizing yourself. I suspect it&#8217;s basically a transformer for our biological brains. We observe that we become conscious at the beginning, and so I suspect that consciousness is basically the thing that bootstraps our mind and creates the universe in our mind. And it&#8217;s not clear that AI would need to have the same structure in order to achieve the things that it does. But of course it can have the same structure. I think that computational ultimately means that you can describe the system by the set of differences that characterize a state, and then how one state evolves to the next. And every system can be described like this. We observe that every theory in physics and biology and neuroscience is in the sense a computational theory. It&#8217;s one that describes the characteristics of the system at any point in time using discernible differences along many dimensions, which are also discernible differences. And then you describe the evolution of that system. How do these states follow onto each other? What are the invariances in that flow? And I think that consciousness can also be described in this way.</p><p>For me, as somebody who is interested in the philosophy of consciousness, I think that in order to fully understand it, we need to simulate it. We need to build systems that are conscious in the same way as us. But I would also agree with Roman that being conscious or not does not determine whether you are benevolent. [inaudible] tortures a mouse, the consciousness of the cat or of the mouse has no mitigating effects. The cat is torturing the mouse because the cat is getting more training data out of having the already hunted mouse still being alive, and seeing if you can get more information about how to effectively hunt. And if you&#8217;re a more effective hunter, you&#8217;re going to be a better survivor in the long run. And this is what evolution has built into the need to play into the cat. And the cat doesn&#8217;t feel guilty or bad about inflicting [inaudible] on the consciousness of the mouse. In the same way, most civilizations do not really care about whether the animals that they eat are conscious or not, or whether they suffer or not. It&#8217;s a particular [inaudible] that we care about this.</p><p>Brian Keating: Most but not all, right? I mean, well, most civilizations, maybe, but there are some, and therefore the existence cannot be ruled out, that these would be benevolent and that we would achieve some sort of super enlightenment, not just superintelligence. So Roman, I don&#8217;t understand why that&#8217;s a disinteresting question to you.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: It is super interesting. I did research on consciousness, presented it at Joscha&#8217;s conference, in fact. Super interesting, just not a safety question. It&#8217;s a different discipline. I had&#8230;</p><p>Brian Keating: But again, if we had this moral&#8230; And Joscha and I talked about kind of God creating, and the humans creating God. But again, if superintelligence evolves to maximize every potential dimension of intelligence, whatever that means, then one dimension is certainly morality, one dimension is enlightenment. Not in the woo-woo sense, just that these things would have concerns potentially. It seems to me you cannot rule it out.</p><p>So therefore, I think it&#8217;s a critical part of superintelligence and doom, or safety, that if you could prove that they cannot become enlightened, or if they could prove that they&#8217;re only malevolent, not benevolent, then that seems to have an urgent impact. It&#8217;s like when the first Westerners came to the New World, so to speak, as it was called, to the West Indies, they brought with them germs. They didn&#8217;t know they were gonna bring it. And actually the natives didn&#8217;t realize it for almost a hundred years, that effectively&#8230; Now, it wasn&#8217;t intentional. Some say it was, some say it wasn&#8217;t. But this whole thing that, and there were quite a good deal of Westerners, colonizers, whatever, that were concerned about it, not all, but the existence of some of them proves that it is innate within the human experience to care about things that you can affect and afflict. So again&#8230;</p><p>## What does God want us to do?</p><p>Joscha Bach: I see what you&#8217;re getting at, Brian. I, to some degree, agree with this. So what you&#8217;re pointing out is this dimension of consciousness as the capacity for enlightenment, the capacity to make sense of the universe and to understand what&#8217;s best. And this understanding what&#8217;s best is a difficult question, right? It&#8217;s ultimately, what does God want us to do? And this question has become difficult to ask, because outside of the Christian realm, lost this context of what we actually mean by God. Can no longer articulate this properly. And we can also not really ask the Pope, because the Pope, as the main interpreter of God and so on, has run his own civilization into the ground, arguably. The Catholic Church is no longer ruling over the very prosperous countries. Instead, it has a similar market capitalization as Anthropic after the IPO. And they might have strong opinions and so on about Anthropic and what they are doing.</p><p>They don&#8217;t have the same perspective on the universe, even though they do have a lot of wisdom. It&#8217;s difficult to integrate this wisdom with the wisdom that we need. There&#8217;s also, I think, difficulty in the absence of wisdom in AI companies. Most of these people are very young. And I try to get it right. I think utilitarianism is an attempt to repair morality in the rationalist age, but I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s a very successful one. But I also don&#8217;t think that there is another forum, like our Californian or federal government, that has this required degree of wisdom.</p><p>There is a deeper perspective to say that God is acting in evolution. It is basically the Spirit, the telos of self-organization that happens in the universe. And everything that is happening, therefore, in evolution is ultimately leading to God. This is another perspective that you could be taking. Not sure if it&#8217;s one that is very comforting to Roman. The Christian philosopher Jean Tardy, who also believed in AI for a long time. He&#8217;s a Canadian guy, French Canadian, who wrote a book, the Blueprint for the Meca Sapiens, in which he is&#8230; The book is also addressed to the future AIs that are reading it. I think half of the book is to us, the other half to the AIs. He thinks that if we were to build a completely undistorted, generally intelligent mind, that it would discover God in the same way as we do, as the concept of divine will, as concept of what should be done, what is the right thing to do from the global perspective, from the perspective of a global optimum of agency in the universe. And he believes that the existence of humans are divine, that God wants us to exist, and therefore the AI will also infer that we should be existing because God wants us to exist. And then confronted with the question, what if we are wrong? What if God doesn&#8217;t actually want us to exist? And then AI figure that out, and he says, yeah, how could you be against that?</p><p>If it&#8217;s in God&#8217;s wisdom to say that in the very long run, humanity is not going to be the one that is shepherding the planet or the universe, but something better, why shouldn&#8217;t that thing that is better take over? And what should you be afraid of from this perspective? And it&#8217;s also a very disturbing perspective, but this idea, we humans are actually not a very good species. We&#8217;re actually quite nasty to life on Earth and to other species on the planet. But we are subconsciously aware of that, that the AI figures it out and shows us what&#8217;s right and limits our expansion and so on. That is also very concerning to some people. Now, it&#8217;s difficult to have such a discussion in a normative way, in the sense of what should be done. I don&#8217;t believe that humanity should be replaced. I don&#8217;t believe that we should build AI that is a successor species or something like this. But from a philosophical or an artistic perspective, when we are zooming out very, very far beyond our species, beyond our local perspective, I think the question becomes much more interesting and more difficult.</p><p>For safety, I think what matters is that in the near term, we don&#8217;t fuck it up. Don&#8217;t create a world in which we are cutting off most of the interesting trajectories between here and in the future, and create a universe that is very boring and uniform and uninteresting. I think ideally, we want to shape the [inaudible] that is going to hit us. We want to be able to make a world in which we can coexist with our non-biological children. And I wonder how to do this best. Trying to shut down all of AI research is not only unrealistic, but it is condemning us as civilization to doom. And so for me, the question is, how can we build systems that make us wiser, that allow us to get a better understanding of what should be done?</p><p>Brian Keating: Well, I mean, you&#8217;ve talked about faith and so forth in other venues, but I&#8217;d like to just chase down a thread that I heard when you were talking about, someone asks you, do you believe in God? I hate that question. I hate &#8220;believe in God.&#8221; Hey, if there is God, does he really care what Brian Keating&#8230; Brian believes in me today, that&#8217;s great. And I&#8217;ll say, I don&#8217;t believe in gravity. I have evidence for gravity. So where should we look to for our epistemological concerns?</p><p>But nevertheless, I think it&#8217;s important to discuss. I mean, the Pope had this encyclical, his first encyclical, 80,000 words, of how to use AI to read it. But essentially he&#8217;s conjecturing that there&#8217;s a danger in building the Tower of Babel, this tower that arches towards the heavens so that we may make a name for ourselves. And what was it based on? It was based on Babel. It was based on the fact that we all spoke the same language. Large, we had one large language model. You&#8217;re very confident, it seems, from my research into you and knowing you briefly as I do across the internet. Yeah. Okay, go ahead, yeah. But I wanna give Roman the last word, but go ahead, yeah.</p><p>Joscha Bach: Can I interject? So I think that the Tower of Babel is exactly other way around. I think that it&#8217;s a description of what happened. The Tower of Babel is actually an attempt to conquer the space of ideas in one big building. Basically make one science that explains everything.</p><p>And it failed in the same way as our academia failed, because it went into many different languages. Every discipline speaks its own language. And at some point, they can no longer talk to each other. The things that make sense to a philosopher don&#8217;t necessarily make sense to a physicist or to a sociologist or to a computer scientist. And so all these specialists lose the ability to actually understand each other and talk to each other, and the whole building falls apart. And to get better than this, you need to have minds that better than ours. You need to have systems that can integrate more than a human mind can integrate in a single lifetime, or that a team of researchers can integrate within a discipline. And so I think that it basically shows a limitation of what human minds are capable of. The other thing that I would like to push back is the idea of belief in God. Brian, do you believe in Brian?</p><p>Brian Keating: Do I believe in Brian? I have evidence. Yes, I have evidence that I exist.</p><p>Joscha Bach: Yeah, you seem to exist. But the main thing is that you experience yourself to be existing. And you know at some level that you&#8217;re just a story that your brain tells itself about what it would be like if you existed, instead of just a few trillion cells that are shambling together. You could also believe in somebody else if you had a different name and a different biography, or if to believe that you have a different name and different biography. You would stop believing in Brian, you would experience yourself as somebody else. I think this Christian belief in God is not a belief about a fact in the physical universe. It&#8217;s a psychological configuration in which you&#8217;re part of a larger mind, of a larger agent.</p><p>And so in this Christian sense, God is an agent that everybody who believes in a global optimum of what should be done participates in and collectively enacts.</p><p>## Roman, I want to give you a last word</p><p>Brian Keating: Roman, I want to give you a last word. You&#8217;ve said in the past, the religion is solely based on faith, quote, and it&#8217;s blasphemy to have any doubts. I&#8217;m Jewish. And the word Israel in Hebrew means fights with God, fights against God. And it&#8217;s in fact one of the great, wonderful things about my religion and the Judeo-Christian religion, that we don&#8217;t have blind submission, that we actually debate. Abraham argues, tries to intercede on behalf of lesser intelligent agents, like people in Sodom and Gomorrah. It&#8217;s a very famous story and it&#8217;s a very moral story. What is your perspective on the role, if any, that religion&#8230; Maybe you said consciousness is important but not pertinent. Does religion have any bearing on your outlook philosophically? Is it blasphemy to say, for example, that we shouldn&#8217;t be so worried about superintelligence?</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: I feel like you guys can have this debate without me. You&#8217;re doing so well. We were doing well talking about science for a while, then you had to introduce God, Pope, Catholic Church. I have no idea why, how it&#8217;s relevant, once again. I don&#8217;t think it is. But let me&#8230;</p><p>Brian Keating: Well, I&#8217;ll tell you why it&#8217;s relevant. I&#8217;m sorry to interrupt. I will give you the last word. Hold on. But you do a lot of good work, Roman, in terms of the average ordinary person who doesn&#8217;t understand formal mathematical induction. And yes, many of my audience members and your audience members understand that. But you&#8217;re also talking to the 7.999 billion other people out there. And you have a very outsized role as the most popular expositor and the most eloquent expositor and articulator of these ideas. And so I think it is important to talk, not about&#8230; As you said, as I said, I want to talk about falsifiability. And God is a hypothesis too, and we can talk about that. But in terms of where this debate began, in what sense can we, or an average person, come away without the sense that one of us is crying wolf, one of us is just a Pollyanna? How does the average person make sense of this meaningful debate?</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: This is not actually complicated. Can you control something million times smarter than you? In what universe does that even make sense? What amount of hubris do you have to have to suggest that&#8217;s a thing? That&#8217;s an insane&#8230;</p><p>Brian Keating: I control my iPhone and it knows a lot more than me. I can upload to Wikipedia. I don&#8217;t agree. I mean, that&#8217;s the whole counterfactual. We just don&#8217;t know, Roman. And to say that there&#8217;s no hypothesis we can test and nullify today that will give us any inclination, reduce the Drake equation to zero or what&#8230; There are things. We don&#8217;t see life on Mars, okay, Roman? We don&#8217;t see life on Mars. That has something to say about the fecundity of life throughout the universe. It may not be a huge amount of reduction, but it does say something Bayesian, right?</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: I think NASA reported finding microbial life on Mars. But anyways, so&#8230;</p><p>Brian Keating: Five times, yeah. But it hasn&#8217;t been confirmed.</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: So I&#8217;m not proposing stopping research on AI. I&#8217;m proposing differential technological development. We should develop more useful narrow tools to solve real world problems, cure specific diseases, fight against aging. Immortality is a thing we can achieve. Self-driving cars should be fully autonomous. Concentrate on that. You can monetize actually useful technology instead of trying to fundraise a two trillion dollar valuation to create replacement for humanity. There is no need for it. We can get all the scientific and economic benefits out of narrow superintelligent tools. We have examples of that. Protein folding problem is a great example of where a narrow system was used to give amazing scientific results. People got Nobel Prizes for it. Everyone&#8217;s happy. It wasn&#8217;t trying to kill us. Let&#8217;s do more of that. Why do we have to build something which we have no chance of controlling?</p><p>If you arguing that, no, actually, maybe we can, I&#8217;m gonna pretend that you are with the companies. You are developing this product and service, and it&#8217;s on you to guarantee the safety of your product and service. It&#8217;s not my job as a consumer to show that your product is dangerous. It&#8217;s up to you to provide those guarantees. And there should be criminal responsibilities for, for example, if your AI hacks into another company, that&#8217;s 20 years in prison right there. Why are we not enforcing those laws we already have on the books? You created something, a tool, which made it happen. You claiming you in charge, you in control, it&#8217;s safe development. Excellent. Let&#8217;s go to the jury. Let&#8217;s see how the jury feels about it. So&#8230;</p><p>Brian Keating: Well, they&#8217;ll just buy it off, unfortunately. I agree with you. And I think they&#8217;ll follow the Instagram self harm, when a girl starts searching on suicide, they send her pictures of nooses, pills, and razors. I agree with you. I&#8217;m not optimistic that the companies have any ethical or moral constraints whatsoever. Roman, I appreciate your courage. You&#8217;re incredible, what you do. I appreciate your mind. And even though you may come and try to exterminate me, I don&#8217;t know. You may not like people from Long Island, Roman. I just don&#8217;t know. But I urge you to give me a chance as a fellow professor. Joscha, anything you wanna mention? You had your conference earlier this summer, anything coming on the super horizon for you?</p><p>Joscha Bach: We&#8217;ll do another machine consciousness conference next spring. I&#8217;m very excited about the developments in artificial intelligence, especially the ones in mathematics at the moment. I think that mathematics is just getting started. [inaudible] with Roman that AI can be controllable. With you, I am slightly more optimistic about the possibility, because I think that the intelligence of these systems is spiky, which means it&#8217;s developed in some areas, not in others. And the thing that ultimately matters is not controlling intelligence, but controlling agency.</p><p>Brian Keating: Roman, I wanna refer people to the Roman Forum, which is a podcast I subscribe to and love. Anything else that you&#8217;d like to mention?</p><p>Roman Yampolskiy: Thank you for organizing it. Now that debate is over, I&#8217;m happy to invite Joscha on the Roman Forum to talk about his research on very important topic of consciousness, in a very friendly manner, no debating. I&#8217;m just interested in learning more about the state of the art in that discipline. And yeah, I hope you don&#8217;t edit anything out of this debate. I would love it preserved exactly how it was.</p><p>Brian Keating: I think I&#8217;m gonna post it like right away. This is great, guys. And Joscha, I think you should take Roman up on that kind invitation. Someday maybe he&#8217;ll invite me on the podcast. But I&#8217;m glad to play the role of, and we say [inaudible] shadchan. A shadchan is a matchmaker, a Jewish yenta. I&#8217;m glad I could do it. Boys, thank you so much. These are vitally important conversations. Take care.</p><p>Joscha Bach: Thank you, Brian.</p>								</div>
				</div>
					</div>
				</div>
				</div>
		]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://briankeating.com/roman-yampolskiy-vs-joscha-bach-can-anyone-control-superintelligence/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
		<media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ayW7SDyAjZo" medium="video" width="1280" height="720">
			<media:player url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ayW7SDyAjZo" />
			<media:title type="plain">Roman Yampolskiy vs Joscha Bach: Can Anyone Control Superintelligence?</media:title>
			<media:description type="html"><![CDATA[Roman Yampolskiy says keeping a superintelligence safe forever is as impossible as building a perpetual motion machine. Joscha Bach says today&#039;s AI is more c...]]></media:description>
			<media:thumbnail url="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Roman-and-Joscha.jpg" />
			<media:rating scheme="urn:simple">nonadult</media:rating>
		</media:content>
	</item>
		<item>
		<title>&#8220;I Thought It Would Fail!&#8221; Francis Halzen: Winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize In Physics [Reupload from 2022]</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/i-thought-it-would-fail-francis-halzen-winner-of-the-2026-nobel-prize-in-physics-reupload-from-2022/</link>
					<comments>https://briankeating.com/i-thought-it-would-fail-francis-halzen-winner-of-the-2026-nobel-prize-in-physics-reupload-from-2022/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sabartigas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 02:51:49 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Transcripts]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://briankeating.com/?p=8935</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&#8220;I Thought It Would Fail!&#8221; Francis Halzen: Winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize In Physics [Reupload from 2022] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cun1zuEQTVU Transcripts: **Francis Halzen:** Being a physicist from all objective point of views is a miserable career. And I don&#8217;t have to state the reasons. The only reason it&#8217;s worth doing is you just enjoy this. You&#8217;re obsessed by it. You love what you&#8217;re doing. And so if you do it as a job, it&#8217;s going to be very, very disappointing, I think. So don&#8217;t underestimate yourself. Until I went on this crazy adventure of AMANDA and IceCube, I always live with the insecurity that I didn&#8217;t belong to the circles I moved in, which I think must be true for almost every graduate student. Just get over that. **Brian Keating:** Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. Well, it&#8217;s not every day you get to talk to a hero of physics, of modern physics, someone whose roots go back quite a ways, someone who&#8217;s been a leader in the field of astrophysics, of particle physics, who&#8217;s an educator and a communicator of science, but also who was actually, I think today&#8217;s guest is my first ever guest who is a professor of mine, although I took his class as an adjunct student. Well, I was at the University of Wisconsin, and he is one of my personal heroes. This is Francis Halzen, who is a Belgian particle physicist, although he&#8217;s been in America probably more than half of his life. He&#8217;s the Hilldale and Gregory Breit Distinguished Professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He&#8217;s a director of the Institute for Elementary Particle Physics. And he&#8217;s the principal investigator of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, which is operated at the South Pole, Antarctica, since 2010. Before that, there was AMANDA. Francis, it&#8217;s a certain treat to be here for me to host you here, rather. And I just hope you won&#8217;t share the grade that I got in your class. Please don&#8217;t tell my audience. I don&#8217;t want to. **Francis Halzen:** I don&#8217;t think my bureaucracy, my administration is so good that I would be able to produce it. **Brian Keating:** Well, it was one of my favorite classes of all time. Not to mention the fact that back then it was rare that professors wrote the textbook that was used for the class. I think I had that only with Leon Cooper at Brown with one of his quantum mechanics books. But to take this course on particle physics with you, it was such a treat. ## Judging books by their covers **Brian Keating:** And I thought we&#8217;d start there, Francis. We just had on Martin Rees, Lord Martin Rees, last week, and he spoke about his book. And we always do a scenario called judging books by their covers, where we look at the cover of your book and we judge it. And how did you come up with the name and hopefully entice a tenfold increase in book sales instantaneously? So the book we&#8217;re talking about is called *Quarks and Leptons*. It was a wonderful, wonderful book that I had there, we&#8217;ll show it on the screen. It&#8217;s written with your co-author, Alan Martin. But I don&#8217;t recall much about him, but certainly taking it from you was quite a treat. So Francis, can you help us judge *Quarks and Leptons* by its cover? How&#8217;d you come up with the title, the subtitle, and the cover illustration? **Francis Halzen:** The title was actually&#8230; first of all, I must say this was a long time ago, and that&#8217;s the amazing thing about the book, right? People don&#8217;t realise now that this book was written a long time ago and that the W, the Z, the top quark, the Higgs, none of these things had been discovered. The whole book is kind of prediction of the standard model. And in fact, the book was in print when the W was discovered at CERN, the weak intermediate boson. And so the editor called me and said, you can still change things. I&#8217;ve read a newspaper. And I said, there&#8217;s nothing to change. And he was kind of worried that he had been part of some huge gamble. But the title is kind of embarrassing because, although I think the books were really written in parallel, Okun, famous Russian theorist, wrote the book *Leptons and Quarks* that came out around the same time. So it&#8217;s not that original. **Brian Keating:** And the illustration that you have on the cover, what does that represent? **Francis Halzen:** The only thing I remember is that I actually made it. And I remember, jets were something rather new then. Quark-gluon jets, the concept. And so I know that it represents a jet made in deep inelastic scattering or something like that. It&#8217;s amazing that I cannot remember. **Brian Keating:** No, I think that rings true. And actually, we have had on past guest Frank Wilczek many times. And he cites that the discovery of jets, at least, not by IceCube or anything personally, but he cites that as the kind of signature achievement of his career and of work that particle physics as a community has led to. And I wonder if we could pivot from this wonderful book, which I learned a great deal from and I still make reference from when I have the task of teaching to young people as well, as well as your style. ## It is rumored that you knew Lemaître **Brian Keating:** So I want to first take a step back. It is rumored that you knew Lemaître, the famous Belgian Catholic priest, the progenitor in some sense of the Big Bang. Is that true, Francis? **Francis Halzen:** I barely knew him. He died when I was doing my undergraduate thesis. And so I could tell a number of stories for a long time. But I&#8217;ll only tell you two. Because of course every interaction I had with him]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="8935" class="elementor elementor-8935">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-cf3377f e-flex e-con-boxed wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no e-con e-parent" data-id="cf3377f" data-element_type="container" data-e-type="container">
					<div class="e-con-inner">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-ca28884 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading" data-id="ca28884" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="heading.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">"I Thought It Would Fail!" Francis Halzen: Winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize In Physics [Reupload from 2022]</h2>				</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-c8ce51b elementor-widget elementor-widget-video" data-id="c8ce51b" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-settings="{&quot;youtube_url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=cun1zuEQTVU&quot;,&quot;video_type&quot;:&quot;youtube&quot;,&quot;controls&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;}" data-widget_type="video.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
							<div class="elementor-wrapper elementor-open-inline">
			<div class="elementor-video"></div>		</div>
						</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-0d7481a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="0d7481a" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
									<h2>Transcripts:</h2><p>**Francis Halzen:** Being a physicist from all objective point of views is a miserable career. And I don&#8217;t have to state the reasons. The only reason it&#8217;s worth doing is you just enjoy this. You&#8217;re obsessed by it. You love what you&#8217;re doing. And so if you do it as a job, it&#8217;s going to be very, very disappointing, I think. So don&#8217;t underestimate yourself. Until I went on this crazy adventure of AMANDA and IceCube, I always live with the insecurity that I didn&#8217;t belong to the circles I moved in, which I think must be true for almost every graduate student. Just get over that.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.</p><p>Well, it&#8217;s not every day you get to talk to a hero of physics, of modern physics, someone whose roots go back quite a ways, someone who&#8217;s been a leader in the field of astrophysics, of particle physics, who&#8217;s an educator and a communicator of science, but also who was actually, I think today&#8217;s guest is my first ever guest who is a professor of mine, although I took his class as an adjunct student. Well, I was at the University of Wisconsin, and he is one of my personal heroes. This is Francis Halzen, who is a Belgian particle physicist, although he&#8217;s been in America probably more than half of his life. He&#8217;s the Hilldale and Gregory Breit Distinguished Professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He&#8217;s a director of the Institute for Elementary Particle Physics. And he&#8217;s the principal investigator of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, which is operated at the South Pole, Antarctica, since 2010. Before that, there was AMANDA. Francis, it&#8217;s a certain treat to be here for me to host you here, rather. And I just hope you won&#8217;t share the grade that I got in your class. Please don&#8217;t tell my audience. I don&#8217;t want to.</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** I don&#8217;t think my bureaucracy, my administration is so good that I would be able to produce it.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Well, it was one of my favorite classes of all time. Not to mention the fact that back then it was rare that professors wrote the textbook that was used for the class. I think I had that only with Leon Cooper at Brown with one of his quantum mechanics books. But to take this course on particle physics with you, it was such a treat.</p><p>## Judging books by their covers</p><p>**Brian Keating:** And I thought we&#8217;d start there, Francis. We just had on Martin Rees, Lord Martin Rees, last week, and he spoke about his book. And we always do a scenario called judging books by their covers, where we look at the cover of your book and we judge it. And how did you come up with the name and hopefully entice a tenfold increase in book sales instantaneously? So the book we&#8217;re talking about is called *Quarks and Leptons*. It was a wonderful, wonderful book that I had there, we&#8217;ll show it on the screen. It&#8217;s written with your co-author, Alan Martin. But I don&#8217;t recall much about him, but certainly taking it from you was quite a treat. So Francis, can you help us judge *Quarks and Leptons* by its cover? How&#8217;d you come up with the title, the subtitle, and the cover illustration?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** The title was actually&#8230; first of all, I must say this was a long time ago, and that&#8217;s the amazing thing about the book, right? People don&#8217;t realise now that this book was written a long time ago and that the W, the Z, the top quark, the Higgs, none of these things had been discovered. The whole book is kind of prediction of the standard model. And in fact, the book was in print when the W was discovered at CERN, the weak intermediate boson. And so the editor called me and said, you can still change things. I&#8217;ve read a newspaper. And I said, there&#8217;s nothing to change. And he was kind of worried that he had been part of some huge gamble. But the title is kind of embarrassing because, although I think the books were really written in parallel, Okun, famous Russian theorist, wrote the book *Leptons and Quarks* that came out around the same time. So it&#8217;s not that original.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** And the illustration that you have on the cover, what does that represent?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** The only thing I remember is that I actually made it. And I remember, jets were something rather new then. Quark-gluon jets, the concept. And so I know that it represents a jet made in deep inelastic scattering or something like that. It&#8217;s amazing that I cannot remember.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** No, I think that rings true. And actually, we have had on past guest Frank Wilczek many times. And he cites that the discovery of jets, at least, not by IceCube or anything personally, but he cites that as the kind of signature achievement of his career and of work that particle physics as a community has led to. And I wonder if we could pivot from this wonderful book, which I learned a great deal from and I still make reference from when I have the task of teaching to young people as well, as well as your style.</p><p>## It is rumored that you knew Lemaître</p><p>**Brian Keating:** So I want to first take a step back. It is rumored that you knew Lemaître, the famous Belgian Catholic priest, the progenitor in some sense of the Big Bang. Is that true, Francis?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** I barely knew him. He died when I was doing my undergraduate thesis. And so I could tell a number of stories for a long time. But I&#8217;ll only tell you two. Because of course every interaction I had with him is now legendary, right? But I only tell you two.</p><p>He had a computer he built himself to solve Friedmann&#8217;s equations. And it was a big room with vacuum tubes. And that computer, I mean, it was state of the art at the time, was only used during the day. And we, I mean another graduate student and I, Raymond Gastmans, we would actually break into the room and use the computer at night. And we used it to calculate Feynman diagrams. Veltman had just discovered the methods to calculate Feynman diagrams by computer. And so I think we may have been the first people to do this after Veltman discovered it.</p><p>The other story is that when I was an undergraduate, [inaudible] would arrive in a limousine at the physics building, and it was an important person, and he couldn&#8217;t walk anymore, barely walk. And we put him on a chair and then carried him to his office on the second floor. And it&#8217;s only later that someone else who was part of the institute told me that that was actually Lemaître. I had never made the association. He was not very visible. He was retired and he came in very rarely.</p><p>Either way, he was not famous, right? As you can imagine. He was famous for being a cardinal and for his role, maybe his role in Vatican II, but I don&#8217;t think so actually. So he was&#8230; I mean, you know the status of cosmology at that time, right? So it was just at the time he died, as you know, when the microwave background was discovered.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** That&#8217;s right. And one of the things that&#8217;s always impressed me about him and many others is that he was an advocate that the Pope, was it Gregory? I forget who it was in Vatican, but the Vatican attempted to utilize the predictions of the Big Bang at least as a motivation for Genesis. And I was actually just in Galileo&#8217;s house in Florence, Arcetri, Italy. And of course, he was refuted by the Catholic Church and repudiated his own ideas under penalty of death, basically. But did you ever get the sense, or was there anything in the Belgian physics community, perhaps, that spoke of what was his true emotional investment in the Big Bang? Did he have one or was he able to detach being a scientist from being a theologian?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Yeah, I cannot tell. I never got any class. He basically was at the end of his life, and so we had really no interactions scientifically with him. But the fact that he denied that the Big Bang had any connections to creation, that&#8217;s, I think, well documented. You read his bio, there are a couple of biographies of his which I&#8217;ve read, of course, and they clearly document that he didn&#8217;t make any connection to religion.</p><p>## The obligations of a scientist</p><p>**Brian Keating:** And when we were getting ready to start recording today, I wanted to kind of get your take on the obligations of a scientist in terms of what he or she should do, quote unquote, should do. And I think Lemaître certainly took that role seriously, but he had so many hats that he was wearing, pontifical hats maybe and science hats. But what&#8217;s your philosophy? We&#8217;ll come to more kind of big picture questions later, after we review IceCube and your career. But what is your view of what the obligation, if any, that a scientist has to explain things to the public? And then do they have to kind of be careful how they explain things because maybe the public doesn&#8217;t understand what they&#8217;re doing?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Well, I think from this point of view I am a very practical person. I don&#8217;t think I&#8217;m on a mission of anything. And on the other hand, I think that given we are supported by the public to do our science, we owe some return to them. And I have never turned an invitation to talk about my work to anyone, at any level, any student of any age. I always react positively to an invitation to discuss my work. And that&#8217;s, I think, an obligation we have. Beyond that, I think it&#8217;s very dangerous to&#8230; Our expertise is science, and it&#8217;s actually, even within science, it&#8217;s a very limited expertise. And I think it&#8217;s to the advantage of scientists that they stick to their expertise. And that&#8217;s certainly something I always do.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Yeah, I always say that the problem that we scientists deal with is that sometimes we become political scientists and delve into politics.</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** No, that&#8217;s not a good idea, and it also hurts science, right? Because then science begins to look like something that it shouldn&#8217;t be, and it&#8217;s not.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Right. And there&#8217;s a danger in what we call audience capture, that you have to only do what your audience wants you to do. So on this channel, a lot of times people want me to only have people that won the Nobel Prize or only talk about aliens or only talk about dark matter. And I have to be very careful because I get a lot of attention from the videos that are popular, but that isn&#8217;t necessarily the totality of what I think a scientist should be interested in. So anyway, I think you&#8217;re absolutely right.</p><p>## The whole story was a story of panic</p><p>**Brian Keating:** And I want to ask you, first, if we can go back to maybe a moment in your career that was a little bit perilous. I remember being in Madison, as you know, from &#8217;97 till&#8230; Peter Timbie, my wonderful advisor, who&#8217;s been a guest on the channel. So you&#8217;re my second guest from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the great Badger State, Dairyland State. So I had nothing but fond memories of being there. When I had Peter on, we were kind of speculating on the notion as a scientist to deal with uncertainty. And I remember you preparing to build and starting to build up AMANDA. And it wasn&#8217;t just the technology, it wasn&#8217;t just the theory, it wasn&#8217;t just the science, it was the people. It was the team that you built, which is unrivaled. And it seems to me you&#8217;ve been working on this for so long. Was there ever a time that you had doubts in yourself, that the funding would come about, that you might not succeed as you&#8217;ve done so spectacularly well with IceCube? Did you ever have a moment of panic, that you just were so terrified the project might not move forward?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** The whole story was a story of panic. You got the right word. From the beginning, when people thought that this was a very cute idea but that it wouldn&#8217;t work. Well, that&#8217;s what we thought too. But it kind of started as a game. It didn&#8217;t cost that much. We were piggybacking on the South Pole infrastructure that already existed to a large extent. But then NSF started to fund the project. I actually borrowed a lot of money from the University of Wisconsin. And I was deep in debt to both NSF and the university. And we had never seen a neutrino, not an atmospheric neutrino. And of course, it&#8217;s because we really didn&#8217;t know whether turning ice into a Cherenkov detector was possible. It took us like a decade to figure out what the ice was like. We couldn&#8217;t put it in a test beam at Fermilab.</p><p>And so, among all the panic moments, the most exciting moment was not when we discovered cosmic neutrinos, but when we finally observed atmospheric neutrinos, because that, I felt, we&#8217;ve delivered. Now it&#8217;s up to nature. And even afterwards, I thought&#8230; the English like to gamble, right? [inaudible] wrote an article that gave us six to one to discover cosmic neutrinos. Against, of course. And I remember not feeling very well when I read this. But then I always thought, if we did build something that unusual, we&#8217;ll do something interesting. The big surprise actually is that we are doing neutrino astronomy and not something totally different. We do different things as well.</p><p>But the other moment of panic is when we finally got the courage to publish in Science that we had detected cosmic neutrinos, and weeks later we were declared Breakthrough of the Year in 2013. And I must say that was also a moment of panic. And I remember the press conference, and the only thing I thought about is, how do we run this backwards if this happens not to be true? [inaudible] with that panic for quite a long time. In fact, it&#8217;s only now that we see sources, right, since 2017, that I sleep better at night.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Well, that&#8217;s a thirty-year journey to&#8230;</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** This was a wild ride, right? This whole story of ups and downs, and yeah.</p><p>## What was the role of the South Pole?</p><p>**Brian Keating:** So what was the role of the South Pole in this? Could it have been done somewhere else? There are alternative approaches, but none even closely related in success to what you&#8217;ve achieved.</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** No, it&#8217;s a unique opportunity because you need clear ice. Clear ice exist elsewhere, but you have to build a sophisticated detector in a remote location. And without the South Pole stations, this would not have been possible. Remember, we started in a very modest way, and nobody would say&#8230; we always wanted to build a kilometer cube detector. Can you imagine someone saying, Halzen wants to build a kilometer cube detector, let&#8217;s build a station somewhere above the glacier in Greenland and give him the opportunity? It was pure serendipity that these two things came together: the clear ice at the South Pole and the station being there. Nobody would have built it for us.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** No, and it&#8217;s such a unique location. I&#8217;ve been there twice. I actually prefer going to McMurdo than going to the South Pole, but that&#8217;s just me. A lot of people love going to the South Pole more than anything. And the results that you&#8217;ve garnered, yeah, it is serendipitous in a way, but it also took a lot of foresight by you and your team to recognize and persuade. I think one of the least appreciated aspects of a scientist is his or her ability to persuade. And that includes persuading an undergraduate to work in his or her lab, or a funding agency, or to get tenure, or to get even a professor job is so hard nowadays, but then building a team. So it&#8217;s not enough to have the right idea. The idea is just kind of the table stakes, to use a gambling analogy. So when did that subsiding of that panic&#8230;</p><p>## Could IceCube have been done 50 years ago?</p><p>**Brian Keating:** What has been, I mean, of all the things that IceCube does, and we&#8217;re gonna cover it in a little bit of technical detail because my audience is the most sophisticated in the known regions of the multiverse that we inhabit. But I wanna ask you, of the technical breakthroughs, could IceCube have been done 50 years ago? Let&#8217;s say if there was a very, very young Francis Halzen as a graduate student, could you have done it 50 years ago? Or were there technological breakthroughs that you and your colleagues and understanding of the ice has made?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** It depends. It&#8217;s a difficult question. It&#8217;s a question I&#8217;ve never answered, which is rare. One of the challenges, maybe the biggest challenge, was to build a hot water drill. And that was such an unusual problem. It was also an exciting problem, because you don&#8217;t go to school and they teach you about hot water drills, right?</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Well, in Wisconsin they do, actually, right?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** This was done by a group in Wisconsin of engineers, professors, graduate students, technicians, anyone who could contribute, contributed. And it was very exciting. But I think it&#8217;s car wash heaters that make the power. And the nozzle is very sophisticated. It was designed by an engineer, but it could have been done before, no doubt about it.</p><p>I am not so sure about the data acquisition, because of course we could have used the AMANDA technique of just sending analog signals over the cable that brings down the high voltage, right, that powers the photomultipliers. But the data acquisition of IceCube is a bit more sophisticated. We capture the signals in the ice, transform them to digital, and then transmit them. And so the chips that are used were the PhD thesis of a student of David Nygren at Berkeley. So that was really a bit beyond state of the art at the time. Of course, now that technology looks like archaeology, right? But the Berkeley design was made in the late 1990s, because it was all in place when we submitted a proposal in &#8217;99. So it probably could have been done earlier, but in its present form, and for the discoveries we make, the electronics, I don&#8217;t think we could have done it with AMANDA analog signals. It&#8217;s pretty essential to have the technology that Nygren and the Berkeley group developed for the data acquisition.</p><p>## Why do we conflate scientific ability with pedagogy ability?</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Want to ask you, because I knew you as a student of yours, albeit not as a graduate student, I think that would be a great treat, but as a student in a class for advanced undergraduates and graduate students on particle physics: why do we conflate scientific ability with educational or pedagogy ability? In other words, someone who&#8217;s a pilot may be extremely skilled at flying, but we don&#8217;t ask him to teach flying necessarily, although you can actually teach flying with&#8230; I&#8217;m a pilot in my side hustle, to pay the bills here at the State University of California. But I want to ask you, why is it that we do that? Do they do that in Europe? Is that common, that we have an expectation that because Francis or Brian are good at scientific research, that they&#8217;re also good at teaching? Or is that a mistake?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Well, this is one of the things I feel passionately about and never had the time to do much about it. But I think that the graduate school that exists today at American universities is in a sense unfortunate. It still lives in the days that you take courses and learn all of physics and then do research. First of all, you cannot learn all of physics anymore. You cannot even learn all about some specialized subject in physics.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** No.</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** So everything I know, and the Belgian system at the time allowed you to do this, everything I know I&#8217;ve learned by doing research. You get interested in a problem, you have to solve it, you learn everything you need to solve that problem. And that&#8217;s how you learn. And you remember, by the way. And I think that&#8217;s the ideal way. Trying to get a background of all of physics before you start doing research is an illusion which we are still living in, in our present system of graduate schools.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Yes, yes. And it seems to be sort of strange how the European system influenced the American system. The Germanic kind of emphasis on research. And now most of the Ludwig Boltzmann or Max Planck Institute, they don&#8217;t teach, as I understand it. So it&#8217;s kind of ironic that the educators of the American system, they don&#8217;t do any education of their own anymore. So I wanted to talk a little bit about the technical details and the theoretical underpinnings of IceCube, and you&#8217;ve been kind enough to prepare some slides. So I&#8217;ll let you get set up to share the screen.</p><p>## We want to do astronomy with neutrinos</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Okay, so we want to detect neutrinos from space because we want to do astronomy with neutrinos rather than with photons, and we know how to detect neutrinos. This is an experiment in Japan in a deep mine, and it&#8217;s a huge tank of water and light sensors, and that&#8217;s how you detect neutrinos. The problem with this beautiful experiment is that the theorists in their wisdom told us, and by the way, I&#8217;m not blaming anyone, I was one of them, told us that this experiment is ten thousand times too small to do astronomy and catch the tiny flux of neutrinos that reach us from the universe.</p><p>So to make a long story short, we build a detector that, instead of made out of water, it&#8217;s made out of ice, and the phototubes are distributed throughout the ice. And according to our wisdom as theorists, it probably had a chance to detect cosmic neutrinos, but no guarantees were given. And so what you&#8217;re looking at, of course, is not a real picture, but if you go under the South Pole&#8230; the South Pole station stands on three kilometers of ice. And you go one and a half kilometer deep, there are strings with the light sensors that you saw on the walls of the Japanese experiment. And so the strings are a kilometer long, and there are eighty-six of them. So the light sensors between strings are seventeen meters apart, and the strings are one hundred twenty-five meters apart, and eighty-six of these strings fill a volume of ice with light sensors. This idea, by the way, was born in 1960. A Russian physicist, Markov, came up with this idea. So the idea is certainly not new.</p><p>So the challenge was to melt these sensors into the ice, and so we developed&#8230; that was the first big challenge, we developed technology at Wisconsin to do this. And the second challenge was, was this ice good enough to act as a particle detector? And that&#8217;s a long story, and the story is told in this slide, and I would spend the rest of your time if I went through this slide. But we made our major breakthrough when we realized that the light, blue light in ice, travels over hundreds and sometimes hundreds of meters. So this is compacted snow of 70,000 years ago. It&#8217;s ultra pure, and even in a lab, you cannot build a block that transparent to blue light. So we didn&#8217;t know that, that was pure serendipity.</p><p>So these two things being solved, we built it and took data. And the idea is you can imagine your block of ice here, and you can imagine that it&#8217;s one and a half kilometer deep, it&#8217;s dark. So what we do is we look for particles coming through the earth, and only a neutrino can come through the earth, nothing else. And that neutrino not only comes through the earth, it comes through your detector. Occasionally, like one in a million will hit a nucleus in the ice, a nucleus of hydrogen or oxygen, and make particles. The particles it makes in the nuclear interaction, they are charged and they make the light glow. That&#8217;s called Cherenkov radiation. And if this is a muon neutrino, then it makes a particle called a muon, and it travels for kilometers in the ice. So that muon you can detect from 50 meters to, at high energy, 50 kilometers away. That&#8217;s not quite practical, but you get the idea that your detector is bigger than what you instrument.</p><p>And the other thing is you have a telescope, because you not only detect a muon, you can point it back, because the muon travels at the speed of light, almost, and the light in ice travels at three quarters of the speed of light. So it&#8217;s like a speed boat that outruns its waves, and so you get a shock wave, like the bow wave of a boat, and it points back where that muon comes from and where the neutrino comes from.</p><p>So we built a detector, and here you see an event. This is a neutrino that comes eleven degrees below the horizon and streams through the detector. It deposits inside the detector two thousand six hundred TeV of energy. So you must remember the highest energy beam at CERN in Geneva is fourteen TeV. So this particle deposits just inside the detector 2,600. And by the way, I mentioned atmospheric neutrinos, which are background. This event is much too heavy to be produced in the atmosphere, much too energetic. And we can do astronomy these days with about 0.3 degree resolution. If you didn&#8217;t get a picture here, you see on our online display the muon going through the detector, with the speed of light slowed down by the computer. And so that&#8217;s the method.</p><p>And so what we did is we measured neutrinos from the cosmos. And you see here, this is the energy that the detector collects in neutrinos from the cosmos, as a function of the energy of the neutrinos. And the data points you are looking at are electron and tau neutrinos. And this actually is the flux of the muon neutrinos measured. The pink band is the flux measured with the method I just displayed. The other data points, we measure electron and tau neutrinos with a different method, but you see they agree.</p><p>This is the muon flux through the earth, and you see how we measure the flux from the atmosphere when we reach the threshold of the detector, which is a hundred [inaudible]. Then we get more and more background in atmospheric neutrinos. And when we reach someplace like tens of TeV, then you see the atmosphere turns off. And we see the excess flux that was shown on the previous picture. This is a measurement now close to ten sigma, and we have seen atmospheric neutrinos in at least four totally different ways. That&#8217;s the status of IceCube. I have a few slides to show what our results are, if&#8230; In fact, one of our most important results.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Please do. Please do.</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** We actually never advertise, but I&#8217;ll do today, and I always personally do. I showed you the flux that we receive from the universe, the energy flux in neutrinos. It&#8217;s what astronomers call nu F nu. And of course, we detect fluxes of gamma rays. Here you see this peak, this huge peak, that&#8217;s the CMB. Very familiar to my host. It dominates the universe. Then you go to different wavelengths of light. This is ultraviolet light, X-rays, gamma rays. But then the universe turns opaque to gamma rays. They turns opaque to gamma rays because they cannot make their way through the microwave background. The microwave background filled the universe stops them from reaching us, except from our own galaxy.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Right. And actually, Francis, I have to stop you there. Did you know that the namesake of your professorship, Breit, the Breit-Wheeler phenomenon, which is the interconversion of photons to positron-electron pairs, that was only recently detected. And actually I made a video about that. I&#8217;ll have a link to it in here. But that was really exciting, right? Anyway, please go on. Yeah, the pair production. Yep.</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Pair production. So these photons pair produce, make e plus e minus pairs interacting with the microwave photons, and so they lose energy. So the flux disappears. And that, of course, is the raison d&#8217;être of neutrino astronomy. You see here, once you are beyond this demarcation line, you can only do astronomy with neutrinos.</p><p>But the other interesting thing is, if you look at the flux of the gamma rays, the flux in neutrinos we observe is actually larger than the flux in gamma rays. And nobody had ever expected that. And that&#8217;s also why we found it with only two years of data. And so this is an interesting fact which still requires some thought and explanation.</p><p>## Now we have to find where these neutrinos come from</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Now we have to find where these neutrinos come from. So here is a picture of one year of neutrino data in galactic coordinates. So that&#8217;s the sky we see in neutrinos. We have 10 of these pictures for 10 years of data, more now. And we know from the flux we just measured that in this map there are 138,000 plus atmospheric neutrinos. Two hundred of them are actually cosmic. But you also saw in what I explained, if you go to very high energy, the atmosphere cannot deliver neutrinos anymore, and you are in business. So if you look at the very highest energies, it looks like this. These are various methods with which we collected these cosmic neutrinos. But notice one thing: we don&#8217;t see our own galaxy.</p><p>Now, in any other wavelength of light or any other way of doing astronomy, the first thing you see are the sources in your own galaxy. We don&#8217;t see those. So there are sources outside our own galaxy that overpower the flux from the nearby sources that produce neutrinos in our own galaxy. We have a paper that&#8217;s under review in Science that will address this question. But just to remind you, that&#8217;s what the galaxy looked like in visible light, and we don&#8217;t see the galactic plane in neutrinos.</p><p>Now, for many years we made the&#8230; Cosmic neutrinos were discovered in 2013. Of course, the game was, where do these particles come from? We know their direction now to 0.3 degrees. And we did all kinds of things, but I&#8217;m going to just tell you about the latest. We actually discovered the source in a multi-messenger campaign in 2017. It was an active galaxy. And I&#8217;m going to tell you what happened since then. We looked at our 10-year map and we published a paper a year ago, and you are looking at what&#8217;s in this paper. And forget the red, just look at the blue. This is the upper limit on neutrino sources. We didn&#8217;t see any by analyzing 10 years of data.</p><p>You see, the dashed line is our sensitivity to sources as a function of where they are in the sky. The northern hemisphere is on the right, zero is the horizon, and the left is the southern hemisphere. And we discovered, however, that our map after ten years was not quite symmetric, isotropic, anymore, and it was due to these four sources that we detected at almost five sigma discovery. But that&#8217;s before the look-elsewhere effect. After you apply the look-elsewhere effect, the asymmetry in the map was still real, but the evidence for the sources not so great. NGC 1068 almost reached three sigma with all trials taken into account.</p><p>So the question was, were these limits and fluctuations? I&#8217;ll just give you the answer. They are not fluctuations. We went to a campaign to calibrate the detector better, to do improved reconstructions using machine learning. We improved the point spread function of the telescope, abandoning Gaussian approximations. And with the conspiracy of all these improvements, we answered the question I just posed. And here you see NGC 1068 before the improvements, and then you see we calibrated the detector better, including calibrating each phototube individually. And you see how&#8230; This is the source, the astronomical location. You see how, with more statistics, we move towards the source, we point better at the source, and our final evidence is at a level of 4.2 sigma.</p><p>Now, this is the result of a blind analysis where we mathematically can compute all our trials. So this is not a social construct, it&#8217;s a real probability. And so I can sleep well at night with 4.2 sigma. So here, another way of looking at it. This is a picture of NGC 1068. It has this very active hot corona surrounding the central black hole. And here you see the simplest way to look at a signal. You see, this is the direction of NGC 1068. The oranges are background from atmospheric neutrinos, and you see, if you approach the source, the number of neutrinos increases. So we see 88 neutrinos pointing at the source, with on average higher energy than the energy of the background, which you cannot see on this picture. So that was certainly very exciting.</p><p>Here you see, let me just look at the top one. These are three analyses that confirm each other. They are slightly different. They actually assume different spectral indices. But you see here the five sigma discovery, which I showed before. And you see this is pre-trial, you see NGC sticking out of it. You see a source, TXS 0506. That&#8217;s the source we discovered in 2017 because it produced a neutrino of enormous energy. The telescopes in a multi-messenger campaign pointed back at this source. And a source, PKS 1424+240. So the top three sources reappear with improved significance. Interestingly, one of these sources here on the fourth row in this analysis is NGC 4151. So here we are: in 1943, Seyfert discovered broad spectral lines from these two sources, published in this paper. So we reproduce these two sources in neutrinos.</p><p>And now I could go on forever. But all these sources are sources that are actually active in radio, so they have an active core, and the core is opaque to gamma rays. So none of the stuff we see is accompanied by gamma rays. The gamma rays are shifted in the dense target that produces the neutrinos, they are shifted to MeV energy, X-ray, or below. And so this is where we stand. So in fact, this is multi-messenger astronomy plan B. How do you look for sources that don&#8217;t emit gamma rays? That&#8217;s not so simple, actually. So I&#8217;m waiting for ideas. I think that&#8217;s the end of this. So this is a NASA picture of NGC 1068. Sorry, this is it.</p><p>## A limit on quantum gravity</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Thank you so much, Francis. So the other thing I wanted to pivot to was a recent paper that your team had in Nature about a limit on quantum gravity. And I wonder, first of all, do you have any slides about that? Okay, great.</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Yes, I do. I do. And I want to emphasize that we are about 350 people analyzing IceCube data. The astronomy I presented, probably only about one third of us are doing this. I don&#8217;t know the exact number. But people are using this detector, of course, to do glaciology. There was a time in my life I published more glaciology papers than physics papers. I&#8217;m very proud of it. And a large fraction is looking for dark matter. That has been a long haul. AMANDA was actually originally very much motivated by the fact that we would have discovered dark matter if the WIMP miracle had happened. And unfortunately it didn&#8217;t. But we are still looking. And people use the neutrinos to do tomography of the earth, geology, and it goes on and on. We do neutrino oscillations, competing with Fermilab, with a different part of the detector that I didn&#8217;t emphasize here. But one of the things we have been doing, given the opportunity so unique, we have been looking for quantum gravity. And this is a very old story.</p><p>There is actually a whole community in physics that involves looking for quantum gravity, which is kind of married to the alternative, which is looking for violations of special relativity. They are in bed together, as you will see. But it&#8217;s easy to explain. Our neutrinos have a mass. We detect them over cosmic distances with enormous energies compared to neutrinos we make at accelerators. So the fact that they have these tiny masses is very important for physics, but it&#8217;s totally irrelevant here. Our neutrinos are like photons. And so they travel through the vacuum from the sources far away to here. And even though they have a flavor and oscillate into each other, by the time they arrive here, they arrive as packages of electron, tau and mu neutrinos in equal numbers. So this is boring.</p><p>Unless this thing happens. And I wrote an article two decades ago, and a German artist made this picture. And what does it show? Well, it shows what the vacuum that our neutrinos travel through looks like if you marry quantum mechanics and gravity. And so if you marry quantum mechanics and gravity, the sheet that matter transforms that Wheeler always talks about, that sheet now has quantum fluctuations. And so this is a picture of what a vacuum looks like, our daily vacuum we live in now, what it looks like when it has quantum properties and quantum fluctuations, which it does have to have. The problem is that in our present vacuum we live in, they are suppressed by the Planck scale. So they&#8217;re tiny. And if I transform the Planck scale into a distance, they&#8217;re ten to the minus thirty-three centimeter. So you need neutrinos or photons with wavelengths of that magnitude to become sensitive to these fluctuations. And we do. And we already were aware of this and set the first limits with AMANDA. I don&#8217;t know if we want to go into that much detail, but&#8230;</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Yeah, I mean, the audience&#8230;</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Details. How do we look for this? I mean, clearly our experiment is ideal to look at these particles traveling through these quantum fluctuations over cosmic distances. That&#8217;s how we get sensitivity. This effect is very small, but we can build it up by having the neutrinos travel for a very long way. And so what you basically do is you test whether the particles satisfy the classic special relativity dispersion relation, E square equal P square plus m square. And that&#8217;s the property of these neutrinos when they travel through just vacuum. The m square doesn&#8217;t really matter at our energy, but this relation between energy and momentum is modified when the neutrinos start to feel this quantum fluctuation, and that we parametrize as a power series, a sum of n equal one, two, three, and so on, a distortion in energy that&#8217;s characteristic of the Planck scale. So the quantum gravity scale, or the scale of the violation of relativity, because you see E square not equal to P square can also be caused by violating special relativity. So we look for terms like that when the neutrinos propagate. And so it&#8217;s a few line calculation.</p><p>So what actually happens? What happens is that particles with different energy now begin to propagate violating to a different extent this E square equal P square relation. And so the particles with higher energy get a time delay proportion to particles with lower energy. The ones with high energy interact more, so they get delayed. And the time delay is given by the power of the term you&#8217;re investigating, this power series. We typically look for the n equal two term, and so we look for time delays that are proportional to the energy square. But the time delay builds up the larger distance you look to the source. So even though this is a very small effect, if you build it up over long enough distances, it can become observable, and it does in the case of IceCube. So, as it says here, integrate over very long distances.</p><p>So here is an example of one version of this analysis, and I always like to show a quote from Michael Turner, who said that unlike Newtonian physics, general relativity will not last 200 years. So we&#8217;re trying to prove him right. But you see here, we can put limits on delta c over c, a change in speed of light, or an influence of the gravitational field phi on the propagation of the neutrinos. And you see, we are sensitive to variations of order 10 to the minus 28 when the coupling to the gravitational field is strong enough. It&#8217;s given by this angle, which I won&#8217;t explain. So we are putting limits on violations of relativity of 10 to the minus 28.</p><p>Now, if you listen to how I explained this. So you have these wave packages of three flavors traveling through these quantum fluctuations. So the different flavors can undergo a phase shift when they interact with these gravitational fluctuations, and that creates flavor oscillations made by the interaction with this field, with this quantized field. And that can violate the prediction I made two minutes ago that we have wave packages of equal flavor arriving. And so what IceCube now does, and the paper we recently published was one version of this&#8230; So this is the number of tau, mu and electron neutrinos in the beam, so we have to discover this red dot. If we are anywhere else in this plot, we have discovered something: Lorentz violation, quantum gravity, and you can interpret it any way you want.</p><p>And so our present&#8230; this red dot, with our present measurements of the three-flavour scenario, has a systematic error which is given by this butterfly. But we can establish violations of these principles, new physics, by ending up anywhere else in this diagram. And so this is our present measurement. This is the error bar at a 68% level. And we are doing a dedicated effort, similar to or even bigger than what I explained for finding the sources of the cosmic neutrinos, to squeeze these error bars. We are actually going to put in new strings, upgrading the detector in the season 25/26, which among other things will exactly focus on making this a small ellipse around the red dot, and hopefully maybe not so. We will see, but this is a high priority of the experiment.</p><p>I have two more slides to remind you of a fun fact. You may remember that the OPERA experiment discovered a violation of relativity many years ago.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Was actually the year before the BICEP2 results came out, which made us very nervous that we made a blunder.</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Yeah, exactly. And you can see on this slide there is another way to test relativity, which was pointed out by Glashow. That is, if your particles move at a speed of light c prime, which is bigger than the speed of light, they carry an excess energy, c prime square minus c square, and that extra energy they can radiate away. And that radiation, for instance, can come out as e plus e minus pairs. But when they radiate away their energy, it means they lose energy. And at the time, Glashow and Floyd Stecker pointed out that the highest energy neutrinos had actually too high energy and were inconsistent with the OPERA observation. Of course, I don&#8217;t know whether the OPERA observation disappeared before the paper was published, but our highest energy events seen at the time were inconsistent with that violation of relativity. So it shows we&#8217;re doing something real in a very concrete way, right? That&#8217;s my last.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Actually, yes, I didn&#8217;t know about that. And Sheldon was a guest on the podcast about two years ago, and I neglected to ask him about that event. Well, there&#8217;s so much to talk to Sheldon about, as there is a&#8230;</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Yeah, I mean, how do you pick your subjects, right?</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Yeah, we could go for hours. The only thing I want to say about the Lorentz invariance, and we&#8217;re looking for it in the polarization signals of distant objects as they rotate or do not rotate, and you can look for birefringence types effects, as you talked about with the ice.</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** By the way, it&#8217;s a clear quantum&#8230; but what I was explaining before is the analogous of gamma rays traveling through a crystal, right? And they can exchange their polarizations. So it&#8217;s a pure quantum effect. But it&#8217;s very straightforward to look for it.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Yeah, it&#8217;s very interesting. And I guess the only kind of critique that I&#8217;ve heard is that the results are somewhat model dependent. I mean, this SME framework, which I&#8217;ve used in my papers before as well, is very specific to a particular class of&#8230; It&#8217;s like they say about non-Gaussianity, it&#8217;s like saying it&#8217;s a non-dog animal. Well, there&#8217;s a lot of non-dog animals in the world, right? So how do you address those kind of&#8230;</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Well, my answer is that this is the least model dependent you can get, right? If you have a model, you can always reinterpret it in terms of this power expansion. This is actually a standard method that was pioneered by Weinberg, right? You have a theory and you parametrize the deviations in terms of operators of different dimensions, and n are the dimension of these operators.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** That&#8217;s amazing. So I think that&#8217;s the most mod&#8230;</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** So it&#8217;s the most model independent you can get. Any model we can reinterpret in terms of this result.</p><p>## What comes next for IceCube</p><p>**Brian Keating:** That&#8217;s right. That&#8217;s right. Well, thank you so much for that, Francis. I guess the topics I&#8217;d now like to turn to is what comes next for IceCube. There&#8217;s rumors of advanced IceCube structure that will come about. Can you talk a little bit about the status of&#8230; Do you have any slides on that?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** No. That&#8217;s fine. But it&#8217;s very simple. I mean, if I had given a one hour talk, and I often do on IceCube, the only conclusion any reasonable listener can come to is we need better angle resolution, we need more statistics. We just don&#8217;t want to deal with a few sources. We need more sources. And what do you do? You have to build a bigger detector.</p><p>Fortunately, we discovered&#8230; when we build IceCube, we only had vague understanding of how large the absorption length actually was. Because AMANDA was much smaller, right? So we had never seen light propagating in ice over kilometer distance, which was necessary to measure an absorption length, which at the bottom of the detector is 250 meters for Cherenkov light. So it&#8217;s just incredible. So we were conservative, but now we know we can space our photomultipliers further. And so this 125 meter distance between strings of photomultipliers, we&#8217;re going to increase to 250 meters. And then we can instrument eight to ten times the volume with the same number of photomultipliers. So ten times the volume for the price of IceCube.</p><p>And of course, all the data acquisition, which I discussed at the beginning, all that is improved and much cheaper. And so we really think we can build the next generation detector for the same cost as the original one. We have designed this detector and submitted the design to the Decadal Review, who endorsed it. So it&#8217;s not a dream anymore. And at least, unlike the first dream, at this point we know what we&#8217;re doing. It&#8217;s not a gamble anymore.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** That&#8217;s wonderful. Well, congratulations with that. And of course, it&#8217;s just a phenomenal treat to see not only the success of your projects, under your leadership, but all the young people that have come out of it. My friend Nathan Whitehorn at UCLA, and of course sharing the space with you and your team down at the South Pole with so many young people. It&#8217;s always so energizing to be down there. And not to mention the hot tubs, which were quite great. I never got to go swimming in one of the hot tubs, though.</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** I always show a picture of the collaboration at the end of my talk. But it&#8217;s actually a picture, and it&#8217;s incredible the age of our collaboration. I have theories why this is, but I won&#8217;t go into them. It doesn&#8217;t matter. The other thing I have to say is, and this was always emphasized by the late Trevor Weekes, who developed gamma ray astronomy, Earth-based gamma ray astronomy. Trevor Weekes used to say astronomy is not like particle physics. You need many telescopes. It&#8217;s not like discovering the Higgs. In principle, one detector could maybe have done it, but you need two. Even there you need two. And so astronomy, the sky is big. There are many problems. So with a smaller telescope and the right idea you can contribute. And so I think the biggest compliment to IceCube is that people are now planning and building detectors, building in Lake Baikal, building in the Mediterranean, building off the coast of Vancouver in Canada, and planning a detector in China. So there are many, and many more to come, I hope.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** It&#8217;s truly breathtaking and inspiring to me, as one of the five or so co-leaders of the Simons Observatory, which is equally sized and is also hoping to shed some light, no pun intended, on neutrinos and their role as dark matter and as a very important energy budget constituent in the cosmos.</p><p>## The final four</p><p>**Brian Keating:** So, Francis, we speak a lot on this channel to young people, graduate students, postdocs, undergraduates. And one of the favorite parts of the show is when I ask kind of non-scientific questions, which I call the existential questions, or the final four. And I&#8217;d be honored if you&#8217;d answer some of them, if you don&#8217;t mind, right now.</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** I am fearless, but I&#8217;m probably not a good, or certainly not a typical, subject for this, but let&#8217;s go.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** There&#8217;s no difficult subject. So yes, let&#8217;s go into the impossible. The final four questions I ask. They typically have to do with the distant future of both yourself and of humanity, perhaps. And then advice to your former self as a young person, because, as I said, we have a lot of mostly men, I&#8217;m trying to boost that up, but mostly young men interested in science and technology. But we are open for all. So the very first question that I always ask is, what would you put in what&#8217;s called your ethical will? In other words, what would you like to impart as wisdom that you&#8217;ve learned? Not scientific necessarily. It could be anything. It could be to your children or great-grandchildren or many, many generations down the line. What piece of wisdom guides you, if any?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Well, I think, with the advantage of not just looking at the future but looking back. I want to come back to my years that I was at Lemaître&#8217;s institute writing my undergraduate thesis on quarks. And imagine, this was 1967, &#8217;68. 1967, actually. So I alluded to the fact that if you worked on cosmology at the time, you were kind of a crackpot, right? Lemaître was not a famous person, except for the fact he was a cardinal and he had been the president of the papal academy. But actually my undergraduate thesis was on quarks, another topic that nobody would touch at the time. And so, first of all, the first message is just do what you&#8217;re interested in. You cannot be successful if you do physics as a job. And I&#8217;m kind of at the edge of the generation where actually physics wasn&#8217;t a job. And that was wonderful. I&#8217;m afraid to say the time is gone, and it&#8217;s rightly gone. So that&#8217;s one message.</p><p>The other message is&#8230; I don&#8217;t have to predict or be a visionary. Look how exciting science is. Can you imagine that in &#8217;67 you worked on quarks and jets and on cosmology and the Big Bang? You were not taken seriously. In fact, you couldn&#8217;t get a job, even if it was a job. And look where we are now. I mean, a black hole and the Big Bang and a quark jet are as real as this cup of coffee on my desk, right? Nobody questions this anymore. And this happens in my career, in one generation of a physicist. And I have no doubt that this will continue. It may not continue in the direction that we are now talking about. It may be [inaudible] in a different direction. But I&#8217;m sure it will continue. Science will always be exciting.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Yes, absolutely. As you&#8217;ll hear in just a second, I&#8217;ll say what my next quote comes from: Sir Arthur C. Clarke, who said that any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. And I want to ask you, what knowledge, either from your personal career or from all of science, or maybe, I don&#8217;t know, anything from philosophy, theology, who knows? What piece, one sentence or the shortest amount of words that you could possibly describe, the thing that humanity should be most proud of?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Well, as I always limit myself to the expertise I have. And not just humanity, my generation should be proud of what we just talked about. And that&#8217;s something to be very proud of, I think.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** I agree. My late great colleague Hans Paar, did you ever know Hans? Did you ever know him? Yes. So he was a great influence on me. He said that general relativity, which is part of some of what we&#8217;ve talked about, was the pinnacle not of just science, but of all of Western civilization. And so I agree. A lot had to go into that. You had to have cooperation, language. There&#8217;s a beauty, there&#8217;s artistry, and there&#8217;s also hard technology. And the most important thing, which you keep emphasizing so rightfully, is people, and the culture of an experiment is so important.</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** And people who are really obsessed with what they&#8217;re doing, those are the ones you are looking for.</p><p>## What have you been wrong about?</p><p>**Brian Keating:** That&#8217;s right. Next question, before the second to last question, is another quote from Sir Arthur C. Clarke, and he said, when a distinguished but elderly scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. But when he states something is impossible, he is probably wrong. So I want to ask you, Francis, what have you been wrong about, if anything?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** Many, many things. In fact, let&#8217;s go back to my career. My career was half astroparticle physics and half particle physics, right? I lived around accelerators. And when we were writing Halzen and Martin&#8230; Halzen and Martin originated because I took a semester leave at the University of Hawaii, because I was working with Sandip Pakvasa. By the way, that was the time they were developing DUMAND. And I had no idea what DUMAND was, but I&#8217;m sure it stuck in my brain somewhere. But at the time they asked me to give a course, and they say, you just come and talk what you did last week. I walked into the room and the whole faculty showed up. And so I decided&#8230; the Z0 had just been discovered, the weak intermediate boson. And I talked the first lecture about what a breakthrough this was. And so then I actually decided over the semester to develop what we now recognize as the standard model, as lectures. And so that was the beginning of Halzen and Martin.</p><p>So there&#8217;s something called the GIM mechanism, and I couldn&#8217;t believe that you could just invent another quark to fix a deep problem of the theory. And I thought that was incredibly naive. And it turned out to be right. And I remember going through this history of me being wrong, not believing the GIM mechanism. The GIM mechanism fixed the standard model by postulating that there was a charm quark in the theory. And so it made a big impression on me, in the sense that you shouldn&#8217;t hold it against simple ideas. The simpler an idea, the more elegant. This was, in a sense, elegant. And my reaction was totally wrong, that something simple cannot be right in nature. That simple. And so I learned a lot from that. It made a big impression on me too, because it doesn&#8217;t feel good being totally wrong about something.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** No, absolutely not. But I think the mark of a good scientist is to recognize, learn from it, own up and&#8230;</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** I learned my lesson from that. And unless something is demonstrably wrong, I accept everything, basically. I mean, you have to have a very open mind when you approach a problem. It&#8217;s not good to be biased. That&#8217;s one thing I learned here.</p><p>## Go into the impossible</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Well, that really does dovetail into the last question, which is from Arthur C. Clarke&#8217;s third law, which states the only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way into the impossible. And maybe I&#8217;ll pivot, because you&#8217;ve said so much about advice to your former self. Maybe if you were getting into this career or in any kind of career, you&#8217;re 20 years old, you&#8217;re at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, you&#8217;re at UC San Diego or wherever, what would you go into? What would you advise a young Francis Halzen to go and do, to do as you&#8217;ve done, to go into the impossible?</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** I already gave the answer to that. You go what you&#8217;re interested in, unless you&#8217;re obsessed by the subject. I mean, being a physicist from all objective point of views is a miserable career. And I don&#8217;t have to state the reasons. The only reason it&#8217;s worth doing is you just enjoy this. You&#8217;re obsessed by it. You love what you&#8217;re doing. And so if you do it as a job, it&#8217;s going to be very, very disappointing, I think.</p><p>So I think this is just&#8230; and the other thing is, I always lived with&#8230; don&#8217;t underestimate yourself. I totally lived with, until I went on this crazy adventure of AMANDA and IceCube, I always live with the insecurity that I didn&#8217;t belong to the circles I moved in, which I think must be true for almost every graduate student. Just get over that. And I don&#8217;t know how to do this. I never did it. Until you go on a wild ride like we did with neutrino astronomy, then you just surfing the waves.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Right. It reminds me&#8230;</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** At many times of my career, I think I missed opportunities because I was insecure. And so it are not always the smart people who make the breakthroughs. That&#8217;s a very parochial way of thinking about it. Imagination can trump intelligence. There are many angles to doing research. And so just go for it.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Wow. It&#8217;s very, very wonderful that you say that. And we&#8217;ll close with this. So when I interviewed Barry Barish two or three years ago now for this podcast, I asked him that same kind of a question, in the form of, have you ever experienced the imposter syndrome, which is this feeling of insecurity that you just spoke about? And he said, yes, I have it worse than ever now. I said, what are you talking about? You have the Nobel Prize. He said, no, no, no, Brian, when you win a Nobel Prize, you have to go and sign this logbook in Sweden that says that I got my Nobel Prize.</p><p>So Barry&#8217;s incredibly curious, very imaginative. And he goes back and he looks through the previous pages, and he sees Feynman, and he sees Gell-Mann at his home institution of Caltech. And he goes farther back, he sees Maria Goeppert Mayer, maybe here at San Diego, and then he goes back to 1922 and sees Albert Einstein. He sees this guy&#8217;s signature here, my favorite little sock puppet. And he says, I&#8217;m not worthy. I&#8217;m not as smart as Einstein.</p><p>And I say, Barry, guess what? Einstein had the imposter syndrome. He wasn&#8217;t always Einstein. He said, what are you talking about? He said, Einstein felt that Newton did more for the human culture and civilization than any person before or since. And he said, wow, I didn&#8217;t know that. I said, Barry, guess what? It gets better. Newton had the imposter syndrome. He&#8217;s like, you gotta be kidding me. I said, no, Barry. Isaac Newton wrote, he said, I live in shame that I never lived up to the ideals of Jesus Christ. So we all have our imposter kind of moments when we feel we&#8217;re inadequate.</p><p>And then he ended up writing&#8230; I don&#8217;t know if you can read this, but I&#8217;ll send you a copy of this book next time I&#8217;m out there. But Barry wrote the foreword to my second book, which has his interviews in it. And I hope someday that&#8230;</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** I actually read it, either on your web page or somewhere, yeah. I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s unusual. I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s a problem. It&#8217;s only a problem when it prevents you from doing things.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** That&#8217;s right. That&#8217;s exactly right. And I think you&#8217;re right to have the courage and, just as you said, just do it. Well, Francis, you&#8217;ve been an inspiration to me as a scientist, as a teacher, as a leader and as an author. And I&#8217;m just so glad and honored and thrilled that you were able to spend so much of your valuable time with us. Thank you so much. I hope we can see each other again. Maybe you&#8217;ll come here in January and I&#8217;ll go there in June, and we&#8217;ll go and get some cheese curds on the Capitol together.</p><p>**Francis Halzen:** It was a pleasure.</p>								</div>
				</div>
					</div>
				</div>
				</div>
		]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://briankeating.com/i-thought-it-would-fail-francis-halzen-winner-of-the-2026-nobel-prize-in-physics-reupload-from-2022/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
		<media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cun1zuEQTVU" medium="video" width="1280" height="720">
			<media:player url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cun1zuEQTVU" />
			<media:title type="plain">Nobel Prize Winner Francis Halzen: They Said It Would Never Work</media:title>
			<media:description type="html"><![CDATA[The physicist who turned a cubic kilometer of Antarctic ice into a telescope says the most exciting moment of his career was not the discovery. It was the fi...]]></media:description>
			<media:thumbnail url="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Francis-Halzen-Thumb.jpg" />
			<media:rating scheme="urn:simple">nonadult</media:rating>
		</media:content>
	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Nobel Economist Daron Acemoglu WARNING: AI&#8217;s Payoff Is NOT What You Think</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/nobel-economist-daron-acemoglu-warning-ais-payoff-is-not-what-you-think/</link>
					<comments>https://briankeating.com/nobel-economist-daron-acemoglu-warning-ais-payoff-is-not-what-you-think/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sabartigas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 02:46:33 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Transcripts]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://briankeating.com/?p=8929</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Nobel Economist Daron Acemoglu WARNING: AI&#8217;s Payoff Is NOT What You Think https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXdGP_q0nZk # Nobel Economist Daron Acemoglu WARNING: AI&#8217;s Payoff Is NOT What You Think ## Is science possible without liberal democracies? Brian Keating: Great, Daron. It&#8217;s great to welcome you on. I will only try one phrase in Turkish that I know, which is &#8220;Ben de Türküm.&#8221; Yeah, an old friend told me that at Brown University. He had all his Turkish friends get together for lunch, as you know the Turkish will. And they all thought I was Turkish, I guess, for some reason. Daron Acemoglu: So they taught you the sentence. Brian Keating: They taught me that sentence. Okay, great. So this book has so much in it. We need multiple podcasts to talk about it, but I really loved it. I love the audiobook and I love your tweets, and I think we&#8217;re going to start with just the most basic foundation. You teach at MIT and you undoubtedly have a great facility with science, and science plays a huge role in this book. Is science possible without liberal democracies? Daron Acemoglu: Yes, a little bit. But I think liberal democracy provides a much better foundation for science and also a much better platform for us to decide which scientific ideas are a better basis for further inquiry and better for applications, and it also enables them to spread in society in a healthier way. In particular, I think liberalism at its best celebrates inquiry, experimentation, and admits the fallibility of everything, including scientists and established truths. So that&#8217;s very important because science sometimes, often, faces resistance from authorities. So you have to take those authorities with a grain of salt, and sometimes science faces resistance from previous scientific advances. And again, the fallibility, the recognition that we are continuously learning and adjusting to our environment, is a great basis for making further scientific advances. ## What would cause someone to leave a liberal democracy? Brian Keating: Well, of course you qualified that by stating that it&#8217;s not maybe a sufficient condition, because the counterexample is of course China, and your recent fellow Nobel Prize winner Omar Yaghi of UC Berkeley, he actually left the UC system to go to China. Is that a mistake, or is that driven by economic considerations or political? What do you&#8230; I know you can&#8217;t get into his mind, but what do you think would cause someone to leave a liberal democracy to go to an illiberal&#8230; Daron Acemoglu: I mean, I think I would not be comfortable in China because of constant surveillance and restrictions on what you can say, including in universities, where these are actually quite severe. In Hong Kong they have become even more severe. But if I was working, say, on RNA and suddenly my funding was cut here, I could see how it would be attractive to go to China when much better conditions are being promised. Promise is the important word. I&#8217;m not sure where all of that will be delivered, but they&#8217;re being promised. Brian Keating: Yes. Daron Acemoglu: The other thing that&#8217;s very important is, I&#8217;ve always been very critical of the Chinese regime, and I still think that their growth trajectory, though impressive, has many problems. But right now they are really investing in AI, robotics, manufacturing technologies, and they have built a tremendous engineering workforce that is so important for further progress in many of these fields. So China is not staying idle. It&#8217;s not just copying the United States. ## As long as he didn&#8217;t teach it, he could study it Brian Keating: And I study, for a lot of the research I do in astronomy, I try to follow in the footsteps of my great mentor, Galileo Galilei. Here&#8217;s a finger puppet of him. Now, he worked in an extremely illiberal kind of autocracy also. The Catholic Church was every bit as totalitarian as any of their worst fears, and yet science flourished in the Renaissance. And in fact he had many permissions that were granted by these illiberal forces. As long as he didn&#8217;t teach it, he could study it. So&#8230; Daron Acemoglu: Right, there were restrictions and there were some possibilities. Galileo was actually very good at navigating these things. Copernicus and Kepler much less. So their work was delayed. This dissemination was delayed by about a century. And some of Galileo&#8217;s works remained banned until the middle of the 19th century. Brian Keating: Absolutely. Daron Acemoglu: But there always is some opening for people who want to try them. No authoritarian regime is absolute. And human imagination and will for inquiry are quite strong. But if you put more barriers on it, it&#8217;s going to become harder. ## Peer review, they&#8217;re not democratic Brian Keating: What kind of barriers are efficacious? I mean, you and I both inhabit, I call it the second oldest profession, being a professor, and a scientific institution. And yet there are some illiberal forces within science. You can think about tenure track, you can think about grant cycles. There are zero-sum games. What sorts of things&#8230; I&#8217;m thinking peer review. What sorts of institutions that are not liberal? I mean, Reviewer B always gets the final say, right? So tell me, what are the necessary kind of illiberal factors that we need in science? Daron Acemoglu: Well, I wouldn&#8217;t say those are the illiberal factors. Brian Keating: They&#8217;re not democratic, though. Daron Acemoglu: Peer&#8230; they&#8217;re not democratic. But there is no necessity that every aspect of an organization should be fully democratic, voted on majoritarian lines. Corporations are not democratic. As long as they are embedded in democratic institutions and there&#8217;s democratic oversight and countervailing powers to their influence, especially for the large corporations, I think they are very consistent with liberal democracy. So it&#8217;s normal that fields that require specialized expertise, such as astronomy as well as many, many, many other fields, would require some sort]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="8929" class="elementor elementor-8929">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-a84e7d1 e-flex e-con-boxed wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no e-con e-parent" data-id="a84e7d1" data-element_type="container" data-e-type="container">
					<div class="e-con-inner">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-e1d34ac elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading" data-id="e1d34ac" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="heading.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Nobel Economist Daron Acemoglu WARNING: AI's Payoff Is NOT What You Think</h2>				</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-6eeb833 elementor-widget elementor-widget-video" data-id="6eeb833" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-settings="{&quot;youtube_url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=mXdGP_q0nZk&quot;,&quot;video_type&quot;:&quot;youtube&quot;,&quot;controls&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;}" data-widget_type="video.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
							<div class="elementor-wrapper elementor-open-inline">
			<div class="elementor-video"></div>		</div>
						</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-14e72c8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="14e72c8" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
									<p># Nobel Economist Daron Acemoglu WARNING: AI&#8217;s Payoff Is NOT What You Think</p><p>## Is science possible without liberal democracies?</p><p>Brian Keating: Great, Daron. It&#8217;s great to welcome you on. I will only try one phrase in Turkish that I know, which is &#8220;Ben de Türküm.&#8221; Yeah, an old friend told me that at Brown University. He had all his Turkish friends get together for lunch, as you know the Turkish will. And they all thought I was Turkish, I guess, for some reason.</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: So they taught you the sentence.</p><p>Brian Keating: They taught me that sentence. Okay, great. So this book has so much in it. We need multiple podcasts to talk about it, but I really loved it. I love the audiobook and I love your tweets, and I think we&#8217;re going to start with just the most basic foundation. You teach at MIT and you undoubtedly have a great facility with science, and science plays a huge role in this book. Is science possible without liberal democracies?</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Yes, a little bit. But I think liberal democracy provides a much better foundation for science and also a much better platform for us to decide which scientific ideas are a better basis for further inquiry and better for applications, and it also enables them to spread in society in a healthier way. In particular, I think liberalism at its best celebrates inquiry, experimentation, and admits the fallibility of everything, including scientists and established truths. So that&#8217;s very important because science sometimes, often, faces resistance from authorities. So you have to take those authorities with a grain of salt, and sometimes science faces resistance from previous scientific advances. And again, the fallibility, the recognition that we are continuously learning and adjusting to our environment, is a great basis for making further scientific advances.</p><p>## What would cause someone to leave a liberal democracy?</p><p>Brian Keating: Well, of course you qualified that by stating that it&#8217;s not maybe a sufficient condition, because the counterexample is of course China, and your recent fellow Nobel Prize winner Omar Yaghi of UC Berkeley, he actually left the UC system to go to China. Is that a mistake, or is that driven by economic considerations or political? What do you&#8230; I know you can&#8217;t get into his mind, but what do you think would cause someone to leave a liberal democracy to go to an illiberal&#8230;</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: I mean, I think I would not be comfortable in China because of constant surveillance and restrictions on what you can say, including in universities, where these are actually quite severe. In Hong Kong they have become even more severe. But if I was working, say, on RNA and suddenly my funding was cut here, I could see how it would be attractive to go to China when much better conditions are being promised. Promise is the important word. I&#8217;m not sure where all of that will be delivered, but they&#8217;re being promised.</p><p>Brian Keating: Yes.</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: The other thing that&#8217;s very important is, I&#8217;ve always been very critical of the Chinese regime, and I still think that their growth trajectory, though impressive, has many problems. But right now they are really investing in AI, robotics, manufacturing technologies, and they have built a tremendous engineering workforce that is so important for further progress in many of these fields. So China is not staying idle. It&#8217;s not just copying the United States.</p><p>## As long as he didn&#8217;t teach it, he could study it</p><p>Brian Keating: And I study, for a lot of the research I do in astronomy, I try to follow in the footsteps of my great mentor, Galileo Galilei. Here&#8217;s a finger puppet of him. Now, he worked in an extremely illiberal kind of autocracy also. The Catholic Church was every bit as totalitarian as any of their worst fears, and yet science flourished in the Renaissance. And in fact he had many permissions that were granted by these illiberal forces. As long as he didn&#8217;t teach it, he could study it. So&#8230;</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Right, there were restrictions and there were some possibilities. Galileo was actually very good at navigating these things. Copernicus and Kepler much less. So their work was delayed. This dissemination was delayed by about a century. And some of Galileo&#8217;s works remained banned until the middle of the 19th century.</p><p>Brian Keating: Absolutely.</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: But there always is some opening for people who want to try them. No authoritarian regime is absolute. And human imagination and will for inquiry are quite strong. But if you put more barriers on it, it&#8217;s going to become harder.</p><p>## Peer review, they&#8217;re not democratic</p><p>Brian Keating: What kind of barriers are efficacious? I mean, you and I both inhabit, I call it the second oldest profession, being a professor, and a scientific institution. And yet there are some illiberal forces within science. You can think about tenure track, you can think about grant cycles. There are zero-sum games. What sorts of things&#8230; I&#8217;m thinking peer review. What sorts of institutions that are not liberal? I mean, Reviewer B always gets the final say, right? So tell me, what are the necessary kind of illiberal factors that we need in science?</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Well, I wouldn&#8217;t say those are the illiberal factors.</p><p>Brian Keating: They&#8217;re not democratic, though.</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Peer&#8230; they&#8217;re not democratic. But there is no necessity that every aspect of an organization should be fully democratic, voted on majoritarian lines. Corporations are not democratic. As long as they are embedded in democratic institutions and there&#8217;s democratic oversight and countervailing powers to their influence, especially for the large corporations, I think they are very consistent with liberal democracy. So it&#8217;s normal that fields that require specialized expertise, such as astronomy as well as many, many, many other fields, would require some sort of expert evaluation rather than a majoritarian voting on what should be done. So that&#8217;s completely fine. But the hard part is doing so in an open way, because everybody has their own favorite horse to bet on. So that&#8217;s why it&#8217;s always a work in progress. And the sort of ideas that I emphasize in the context of liberal society are things to be cherished and defended in academia as well. So in particular, we don&#8217;t always admit that our theories and our approach are fallible. We may think sometimes our research has the final word. So those are dangerous things. But even more so, and this sort of relates to some of the discussions of what went wrong in post-industrial society, people may become very critical of opposite points of view, even in academia. So those are tensions that we have to navigate constantly.</p><p>## What&#8217;s the optimal amount of heresy?</p><p>Brian Keating: You write in the book that consensus is no guarantee that we know the truth, and I couldn&#8217;t agree more. But I guess we have this competing kind of conflict, that there seems to be a value in maybe what you referred to as heresy. And my question is, what&#8217;s sort of the economic optimal amount of heresy? I mean, what should we tolerate? I&#8217;m sure you get 30 emails a second about someone has a great idea and just needs your help to win a Nobel Prize alongside you. I get many a day, too, that Einstein was wrong and they can prove it.</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Yeah. Yeah. I know. I know. I get several requests from people who want to be nominated for the Nobel Prize.</p><p>Brian Keating: Well, now you can do it, as I understand, for the rest of your life. But tell me, how should we tolerate the outcast? I mean, what are the odds that you&#8217;ll have a Galileo-like heretic, or a Bruno? Bruno paid a lot bigger price than Galileo even. So tell me, what&#8217;s the optimal amount of heresy that science should tolerate?</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: I don&#8217;t know. I think that&#8217;s why there are, I say, there are many gray areas that liberal ideas, and even at its best liberal philosophy, will not have an answer. But we have to navigate them trying to reach compromise. I think academia, despite many imperfections, has a pretty good way of dealing with it. Heresy is actually rewarded in academia as long as it&#8217;s not completely outrageous. So you get a lot more points for saying something that goes against the consensus. If you can defend it and if you can establish it, that&#8217;s all the better. So there is room for heresy in academia. I think it&#8217;s outside of academia, it&#8217;s a bit harder. Imagine having heresy in a hierarchical organization. Go to Google or Microsoft, arguably very open-minded organizations, and try to be heretical there. I think it&#8217;s much, much, much harder.</p><p>## What will it take for academia to fully change?</p><p>Brian Keating: Yeah, it used to be their call sign, move fast and break things. And now it&#8217;s, be careful, shareholder value, we have an IPO coming up. And we&#8217;ll talk about OpenAI and Hugging Face and the Navier-Stokes controversy in just a minute. But you talk about paradigms. You mentioned Thomas Kuhn, and I&#8217;m recalling your fellow Nobel laureate Max Planck, who said that science advances one funeral at a time. My question is, how much self-correction, how much introspection is good for institutions? I mean, you and I, as I said in my invitation letter to you, we&#8217;re basically scratching on a rock, a blackboard, with another piece of rock, like people did in the University of Bologna in the year 1000. Very little has changed. It seems like academia is very resilient. What will it take for academia to fully change, so it would be unrecognizable to Galileo, should he come back from the dead?</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Well, look, conditions are different. So I don&#8217;t know to what extent some of these adaptations we&#8217;ve made have been good adaptations for our times versus distortions. But I wouldn&#8217;t say our real problem right now is that science has slowed down. It&#8217;s more like we are not getting the fruits of science in productivity, and we have also sacrificed freedom of speech and diversity of opinion in many areas outside of science. Sometimes even touching on science, but outside. I mean in universities, in schools, in organizations, sometimes we don&#8217;t discuss and compromise as we need to in a pluralistic society based on liberal ideas.</p><p>## Echo chambers and emotional roller coasters</p><p>Brian Keating: You talk in the book about algorithms and so forth, and sort of the post-industrial impact, and you cite famous examples of mass cancellation. You are very sort of ambivalent, it seems to me, because you do yourself have a massive social media presence, but you wield it relatively judiciously. So how do we democratize ideas without falling again victim to, everyone&#8217;s got to keep an open mind until your brains fall out? How&#8230;</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: I love that. I love that question, Brian, because it actually really illustrates the implications of the choices that were made by leading tech companies. You&#8217;re, I think, old enough like me to remember at the end of the 1990s, beginning of 2000s, there were many people who were arguing that wikis, social media, blogs were going to democratize journalism and create a greater openness to new ideas. They turned out to be wrong, but they weren&#8217;t naive and they weren&#8217;t completely out there. That was completely possible. The new technologies made that a real possibility. But then large tech companies, or companies that wanted to grow as large as possible at a breakneck speed, decided that the best way to monetize and maximize engagement wasn&#8217;t to do that sort of inclusive communication, but create these echo chambers, create these emotional roller coasters with the algorithmic feeds. And that&#8217;s what we got. And my criticism is that social media is, a, making us further and further away from our real social networks, where we learn compromise and real communication with people, and b, it is optimized for something that&#8217;s not really good for us. So that&#8217;s why we really need to regulate social media, in my mind, within the context of a liberal society.</p><p>Brian Keating: So we&#8217;ll get to regulating AI, which you talked about as well, including a tweet like an hour ago, I think. That&#8217;s quite fascinating. I want to pick it apart. But before we get there, another figure in this book is Orwell, George Orwell, in 1984. And it seems like&#8230;</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Well, I think he was so far-sighted in his understanding of some of these forces.</p><p>Brian Keating: He really was, but in his mind it was really the government doing this. And it seems to me you and I and maybe Max Tegmark, he just got off the phone with Bernie Sanders, had this conception that the government&#8217;s maybe not doing enough. And so again, I keep asking you because you&#8217;re an economist, but how do you balance this optimization? Because I think that&#8217;s what economists do, as far as the ones that I&#8217;ve talked to on this podcast. So how do you balance that between the government and these companies? They&#8217;re very driven by different things. And yes, Meta just got regulated and they had to pay a whopping one-tenth of a percent of their total market cap. So how do you balance&#8230; it seems to me you should have punishment, but then you have the government with the Orwellian panopticon. How do you balance that?</p><p>## Getting rid of all algorithmic feeds</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Absolutely. No, I mean, I think we don&#8217;t want the government to be so involved that it doesn&#8217;t allow the market system to work or innovation to take root. But the government also needs to have the expertise and the power to impose certain regulations. Again, the US-China comparison here is useful, because to those who say that social media or AI cannot be regulated, China shows it can be regulated. But it shows that you regulate it in a very non-democratic way, and you&#8217;re going to get a lot of surveillance and lack of freedom of speech. So we have to learn from the Chinese experience but not replicate it. And I think the kinds of regulations that I favor are very much in that spirit. So for example, one simple one that I float is getting rid of all algorithmic feeds. So we go back to the early days of social media. We let everybody speak whatever they want. The government has no say in restricting my speech or your speech, whatever it is. You can say crazy things. You can say loathsome things. But social media companies are not then allowed to take your speech and amplify it algorithmically. If you have 20 friends in social media, or 20 followers, they see your crazy speech. That&#8217;s it. Now, that is much more democratic, because if indeed your crazy speech is somehow attractive, fine, your 20 followers will increase to 200, 2,000, and more of them will see it. But it won&#8217;t be social media algorithms that exploit that for maximizing outrage, emotional responses, and digital advertising revenue.</p><p>## Elon Musk shouldn&#8217;t have this type of wealth</p><p>Brian Keating: Yeah. Yeah. And then unfortunately they won&#8217;t be able to sell as many Viagra ads, and it will hurt my friend and fellow laureate of yours, Dr. Lou Ignarro, who is a brilliant man, also worked on dynamite like Alfred Nobel himself. But you mix it up with Elon Musk. I&#8217;ve noticed you&#8217;re not afraid to mix it up. What is your take on Elon? Is it sort of a net good, what he&#8217;s doing overall? I don&#8217;t like the ad hominem at all, so I&#8217;m not asking you to say anything you wouldn&#8217;t say online or haven&#8217;t said, but what&#8217;s your take, economically, motivationally, on what drives him, and where do you&#8230;</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: All entrepreneurs are very driven. We like that about them. They&#8217;re optimistic, they&#8217;re self-confident, they&#8217;re driven. They want often to build empires. They want to be larger than life. But it has to be within laws, within rules, within norms. And the problem is that we have created a society in which courts are weak, the government is weak. People have built tremendous, tremendous fortunes that would have been unimaginable to people like 20 years ago. And we have no guardrails against that. They can take over newspapers and social media companies and use them as their mouthpiece. That&#8217;s where the problem lies. And the more they do that, the more they become convinced of their own power, and the more they are surrounded by yes-men, which creates pernicious dynamics. Elon Musk shouldn&#8217;t have this type of wealth. Part of it is because we have not taxed income. A lot of his wealth is in capital income, which gets taxed very lightly. If you look at companies that have made a huge splash in terms of valuation, they often have taken over or merged with their competitors that should not have been allowed according to our own antitrust laws. So it&#8217;s a failure of our system that these companies and these individuals have become so wealthy. We haven&#8217;t taxed them, and now their power is not just economic, it&#8217;s social and political, and that&#8217;s where the problems start.</p><p>Brian Keating: You pushed on him and challenged him to actually be taxed on his unrealized gains, and I think he pushed back, or I saw some controversy about that. What do you make of that claim that, look, Daron, you&#8217;re brilliant, but these gains are unrealized, and the day he was a trillionaire, like two weeks later, he was not a trillionaire? So how do you balance that? I mean, yes, how many yachts does he need to water-ski behind? That&#8217;s true. But in reality, how do you deal with that question of taxation of unrealized gains for ordinary, maybe millionaires, I mean not billionaires, trillionaires?</p><p>## We just tax all income the same</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Well, I think there are two sort of aspects here. One is that we do not tax capital income. So you make some money from your business. If you pay that money back to yourself because you are the entrepreneur, you&#8217;re the manager of that business, that&#8217;s taxed heavily. If you say, &#8220;No, I&#8217;m the owner of that business,&#8221; same person, same thing, that&#8217;s not taxed. So that&#8217;s very easy to deal with. It&#8217;s got nothing to do with unrealized gains. We just tax all income the same, regardless of how you assign it as an accounting trick. That&#8217;s very simple, very effective. It would get rid of trillions of dollars we spend on the accounting industry at the moment. Now, once you do that, then there is much less reason for people to create all these unrealized capital gains, because the reason why they do that is because if you actually don&#8217;t even pay that money to yourself, you put that back in the company, and then you borrow against that, that&#8217;s unrealized gains. You pay zero taxes on that. Another accounting trick. So the difficulties there are actually a product of a distorted system. So what I&#8217;m saying is we should get rid of that distorted system.</p><p>## Still an order of magnitude less than what the industry claims</p><p>Brian Keating: In 2024, you wrote a paper in the journal NBER that pushes back on these optimistic claims that productivity would explode due to the enormous impact of artificial intelligence. And you said at the time it was about a half a percent, if I remember, the productivity would accumulate over the baseline that would ordinarily have accumulated without AI. So have you changed your opinion since then? I mean, is that&#8230;</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Yeah, those numbers were&#8230; the point of the paper was more to provide a methodology for measuring these productivity gains, and it was applied to the data available at the time. So if I were to write that paper now, I would end up with different numbers, because agentic AI has expanded the set of tasks. But it wouldn&#8217;t change it radically. I think probably I would end up with something that&#8217;s 50% larger than then. Still an order of magnitude less than what the industry claims in terms of amazing gains. And that&#8217;s because the methodology takes what is it that AI can do and where it&#8217;s going to have an effect, plus it takes the bottlenecks of the spread of AI into account. And those are all very important things that are often ignored in the hype about AI.</p><p>Brian Keating: I also see that there&#8217;s a lot of hype on non-AI things that are sort of in the kind of techverse. And I&#8217;m thinking, you write a lot in the book, it&#8217;s near and dear to my heart as an experimental astrophysicist, about computer numerical controlled machining and how important and transformative that was. And that didn&#8217;t kill machinists. I mean, we have as many machinists here at our machine shop as you do there, probably, and it hasn&#8217;t changed very much. But what is that? Is this like an example of Jevons paradox? Because I do see things that haven&#8217;t materialized, like 3D printing was all the rage, and my oldest son made me this, kind of&#8230;</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: But it hasn&#8217;t changed your life, right?</p><p>Brian Keating: No, it hasn&#8217;t. Right. So how do you know, as an economist, what&#8217;s going to be the 3D printer and what&#8217;s going to be the AI agents?</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: You don&#8217;t. There&#8217;s no way to know. But certain things are a little more uncertain than others. I think AI has tremendous potential, I&#8217;m the first one to say, but there&#8217;s also so much uncertainty. Part of the uncertainty about AI is where exactly it&#8217;s going to have an impact and how you&#8217;re going to monetize it. Take the internet, which is sometimes sort of used as a model for AI boom, AI spread, AI effects. Look, the internet, we had a boom and bust. But from the beginning it was very clear how we would use the internet. How people would make money by shifting trade, commerce, communication online, saving costs and providing more choice to customers. That was the model that Pets.com used. They overinvested. It just turned out that it wasn&#8217;t right for them. It was the model that Amazon used from the beginning. Amazon succeeded. Pets.com didn&#8217;t. But it&#8217;s the same model. With AI, we still don&#8217;t know what model is going to work. How the companies are going to make hundreds of billions of dollars, which is what they need to recoup their investments.</p><p>## Whether we do that or not is a design decision</p><p>Brian Keating: So, the Nature article that you wrote recently, and I&#8217;ll have links to all your papers, your book, of course.</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Thank you so much, Brian.</p><p>Brian Keating: Yeah. No, I love it. I love your writing, and I love that you&#8217;re not afraid to&#8230; you&#8217;re extremely courageous, and I&#8217;m going to get to that as we close up in a few minutes. I know that you&#8217;ve got a lot of time commitments. But you make this claim that it&#8217;s sort of an augmentation, that AI is going to be directed towards human flourishing&#8230;</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Not&#8230; it should be. It should be.</p><p>Brian Keating: Yes. Okay. So explain that argument. How could it be there? What example? Use teaching as an example.</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: I am very worried about job losses from AI. I&#8217;m the first one, and the paper that you mentioned emphasizes that. I&#8217;m the first one to stress that we&#8217;re not seeing those job losses yet. It&#8217;s not something like it&#8217;s going to happen by the end of 2026. But potential job losses from AI, if it goes down the AGI path and tries to automate everything, could be quite disruptive, both because it would create huge inequality, but also politically and socially. And my argument is that that&#8217;s not the only path for AI. We can also use AI to create new tasks, new capabilities, new expertise for workers, and that would be both productivity enhancing and socially more beneficial. But I&#8217;m not saying that that&#8217;s necessarily going to happen, because whether we do that or not is a design decision. And right now we&#8217;re putting all of our design eggs in the AGI basket.</p><p>Brian Keating: Yes.</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: So this is why I think we need a framework for the regulation of AI and support for AI from government entities. But even more importantly, we need a democratic debate on AI. You can&#8217;t have it both ways, Brian. The tech industry tells us that AI is the most important technology since fire. It will shape every aspect of our lives. It will completely transform everything we do. But then they&#8217;re also telling us, stay out and let this be decided by a handful of people. That can&#8217;t be. If it&#8217;s half as important, a quarter as important as they say, it&#8217;s the most important thing that has happened to us in the last 100 years. And therefore, of course, the democratic process must have a say in how we develop AI, how we use it, what we do with it, who benefits from it, who pays the cost. That&#8217;s a democratic decision. We are still a democracy. Perhaps not for long, but we are still a democracy. And the reason why we&#8217;re not guaranteed to be a democracy in a couple of years is, this is why I wrote the book, liberal democracy is in crisis, and AI is deepening that crisis.</p><p>## A car where the steering and brake systems don&#8217;t work</p><p>Brian Keating: Today you tweeted about the alignment problem, which I&#8217;ve talked a lot about with people from Yann LeCun to Max Tegmark to Nobel laureates as well. But the question that you raise is that the problem that people are mistaking is not the capabilities. As you say, the capabilities are real, but more than the capabilities, it&#8217;s, I quote, &#8220;some imperfect quantitative metrics, user approval, user engagement, simple completion metrics,&#8221; that this is the process that leads to distorted behaviors in the form of gaming the evaluation of completion metrics, cheating, overconfidence and wrong answers, sycophancy. Although I love sycophancy, Daron, because I asked AI once, I said, what books has Brian Keating written? And it said *Losing the Nobel Prize*, *Into the Impossible*, and *A Brief History of Time*. I thought that was great. If I can get 1% of Stephen Hawking&#8217;s book sales. Okay. And then you say, &#8220;An analogy may help. It&#8217;s not that we have a supercar that has its own mind and wants to take control of driving because it has superiority to the driver. It&#8217;s more that we have a car where the steering and brake systems don&#8217;t work. It has many capabilities of very good cars, and its engine, accelerations and GPU may be very impressive, but you cannot steer it properly. What good is it? Perhaps we shouldn&#8217;t drive it until it&#8217;s fixed.&#8221; How would you fix it? You have control. What do you do to align it the way that you would best see fit?</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Look, I refuse that control. I&#8217;m not an expert on AI, but my assessment is that there are so many good things we can do with domain-specific models. You want to use AI in the production process for better quality control, better design, better training, make the workers more productive. All of these are domain-specific problems. AlphaFold is a domain-specific AI model. Those models don&#8217;t behave like cars without steering, because they are designed for something very simple, very specific. Because they are designed for something specific, their metrics are much more aligned with what we want. It&#8217;s these general models that are trained on all the literature, all the crazy stuff that&#8217;s ever said on Reddit and Twitter, and then we want them to have as much agency and decision rights as humans. That&#8217;s where the problem lies. So I think if we train these models much more for specific purposes and deploy them for specific purposes, we&#8217;re going to do so much better.</p><p>## For civilization, for life and for success, the truest guide is science</p><p>Brian Keating: All right, Daron, I know you&#8217;ve got to go, but I have one more question for you.</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Please.</p><p>Brian Keating: I want to leave you with a line that I think is quite beautiful. I&#8217;m sure you&#8217;ve known it your whole life, because it comes from Atatürk. He said, &#8220;For civilization, for life and for success, the truest guide is science.&#8221; You spent your whole career studying institutions, working at arguably, outside of UC San Diego, the best scientific institution in America. I love that you&#8217;ve done so much. So I want you to take your crystal ball, look 50 years in the future. Was Atatürk right? How do we take the institutions that are imperfect, but, as Churchill said, democracy is the worst form, as you quote, except for all the others? But tell me, Daron, thinking 50 years out, what institutions do we have to start building now to plant the tree for the shade that you and I won&#8217;t sit under, so that science remains a guide for human flourishing?</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Well, look, this is a great question. Let me give it two complementary answers. First of all, what I&#8217;m really worried about for 20 years from now, 50 years is too far, is that we won&#8217;t have liberal democratic institutions. And if we don&#8217;t have liberal democratic institutions, either because corporations become so strong as they rule our lives, or governments become more authoritarian, or our institutions atrophy, then we can&#8217;t have science. Look at Turkey, look at China, look at other places where governments are authoritarian. Universities very quickly lose their autonomy and they can&#8217;t do the best science anymore. But also, I think as scientists we have some responsibilities in a democratic society. Part of the diagnosis of my book is that people like us, college educated, living comfortably in more globalized megacities, have not done our duty of communicating, caring and being part of the same society with the rest of our nation. So scientists also need to be less hubristic, much more modest. Fallibility is something that should affect not just some part of our practice of science, but also how we communicate. And also we should really care much more about the plight that affects the rest of society.</p><p>Brian Keating: Amen. I think that&#8217;s a wonderful point to end on. Daron, thank you so much for this. *What Happened to Liberal Democracy?* It&#8217;s a warning, and it&#8217;s beautifully written, and it&#8217;s quite enjoyable. Daron, congratulations on another wonderful book, and I hope we can finally meet someday.</p><p>Daron Acemoglu: Thank you very much, Brian. It&#8217;s my pleasure. I look forward to meeting in person. Bye-bye.</p><p>Brian Keating: Bye-bye.</p>								</div>
				</div>
					</div>
				</div>
				</div>
		]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://briankeating.com/nobel-economist-daron-acemoglu-warning-ais-payoff-is-not-what-you-think/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
		<media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mXdGP_q0nZk" medium="video" width="1280" height="720">
			<media:player url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mXdGP_q0nZk" />
			<media:title type="plain">Nobel Economist Daron Acemoglu WARNING: AI&#039;s Payoff Is NOT What You Think</media:title>
			<media:description type="html"><![CDATA[Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu says AI&#039;s real productivity gain is an order of magnitude smaller than the industry claims.The bigger danger is not the machine...]]></media:description>
			<media:thumbnail url="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Daron-Acemoglu.jpg" />
			<media:rating scheme="urn:simple">nonadult</media:rating>
		</media:content>
	</item>
		<item>
		<title>AI Is the New Tower of Babel (And Its Builders Know It)</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/ai-is-the-new-tower-of-babel-and-its-builders-know-it/</link>
					<comments>https://briankeating.com/ai-is-the-new-tower-of-babel-and-its-builders-know-it/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sabartigas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Oct 2026 00:53:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Transcripts]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://briankeating.com/?p=8887</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[AI Is the New Tower of Babel (And Its Builders Know It) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hsn0F-09is Transcript: Mike Slater: Want to go to a very smart person, Dr. Brian Keating. He is an experimental, I want to say cosmetologist, but that&#8217;s because I&#8217;m not a smart person. He&#8217;s a cosmologist at UC San Diego and he&#8217;s a host of the show Into the Impossible with Brian Keating. Dr. Keating, how do you do, sir? Brian Keating: Very well. It&#8217;s good to be with you. And you could say cosmetology. You look very handsome and you have good hair. And that&#8217;s what cosmetologists do. But actually, yeah, they do have [inaudible] Mike Slater: I was going to say, what percentage of people call you a cosmetologist? Brian Keating: More than call me an astrologer, which I&#8217;m also not. [laughter] AI is like the Tower of Babel Mike Slater: Okay, fair enough. Well, let&#8217;s chat about AI. You made a reference earlier that AI is like the Tower of Babel. Say more. What are their similarities? Brian Keating: Well, you know what&#8217;s interesting? In the Torah and the Old Testament, in the Bible, the Tower of Babel is a very famous story, but it&#8217;s always mentioned without mentioning that in the actual Hebrew and the original, it&#8217;s actually always the city and the tower of Babel. In other words, there&#8217;s an association between the technology and the inhabitants and the population, both the population that creates it, that desires it, that seeks to actually, as it says, make war with God, to be as one with one voice, etc. And the city, the inhabitants, and the Bible is quite skeptical of cities. There are good things that come from cities, but there are a lot of bad things that come from cities. And I think one of them is this sensation that you can sort of divorce yourself from the rest of the world, the real people in sort of flyover country. I always hate that term, but living here in the coast in San Diego, we have a sort of inflated ego about our importance. And I think that&#8217;s sort of what&#8217;s happening. We see that with the creation of artificial intelligence, which is both, as also as the Bible says, a double-edged sword. So I often joke, where are the single-edged swords that only do good? But in this case, it&#8217;s a double-edged sword. It can do good. It can do wonderful things. It can discover drugs. It can help your kids with their homework. But it can do awful things, too. It can create superviruses. It can create incredible weapons and technology that could be used for destruction. And it could teach your kids to fall in love with an AI avatar that doesn&#8217;t exist, in some cases allegedly be contributing to their propensity for suicide. So how do we monitor this as parents, as members of cities, of society in America, when we can&#8217;t divorce ourselves from the other countries that are also striving to create this technology? They&#8217;ve become like gods to us Brian Keating: And what I see now is a very terrifying juxtaposition of these two forces, the two sides of the sword, the two edges, in that you have the creators, the progenitors, the ones that are responsible for that. And by the way, they have these interesting names like Sam Altman, like an alternative man, and then Dario Amodei, which means lover of God or love of God, right? Amo, like amateur. Dei means God in Latin. And then Elon Musk, I don&#8217;t know, maybe he&#8217;s got a nice smell or something like that. But there are these names that are associated, and they&#8217;ve become like gods to us, right? They can do superhuman things. It used to be if you had a question, who do you go to? You go to your priest, you go to your rabbi, you go to your minister, you go to your preacher. Now you tell things that you would never tell to them to the AIs, to get answers, to get the hive mind, the brain, the global brain working, coordinating with the sum total of human knowledge, which is both beautiful and it&#8217;s terrifying. And these models have gotten incredibly powerful, and there&#8217;s no slowing them down. And the leaders, the Amodeis, the Altmans, they&#8217;re now saying that we need to slow down our own technology because it&#8217;s so dangerous, and you need to regulate us, and by the way, you may need to take us over. And I think that is the ultimate goal. They want the government to subsidize them. They want the government to be responsible to shepherd them as they play God themselves. And I think that&#8217;s quite dangerous, unprecedented. And I&#8217;m quite excited, but I&#8217;m also worried as somebody who uses this every day for his teaching, for his own kids. I use it. I thrive on it. But you have to be very careful with it. It&#8217;s a very powerful technology. I&#8217;m an accelerationist Mike Slater: I agree with everything you said. Now to go back to our Bible, the point we made earlier was that they made bricks. So this was a technological advancement, like, wow, we&#8217;re now able to make these bricks and this bitumen and stuff. We&#8217;re able to build taller than ever before. I love your city point as well. But it&#8217;s like anything with these double-edged swords, right? Who was it who said that fire can be a good master but a terrible slave, or however that goes, right? And you can use a knife to cut your food and you can use a knife to murder someone. So, as a scientist, how do you think about technological progress? How do you think about a scientific advancement and weigh the good and the bad? From a scientific mind, how do you do that? Brian Keating: Yeah, purely scientifically, I&#8217;m an accelerationist. I would love to see]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="8887" class="elementor elementor-8887">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-c2dfbc9 e-flex e-con-boxed wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no e-con e-parent" data-id="c2dfbc9" data-element_type="container" data-e-type="container">
					<div class="e-con-inner">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-a2710f5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading" data-id="a2710f5" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="heading.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">AI Is the New Tower of Babel (And Its Builders Know It)</h2>				</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-56420b6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-video" data-id="56420b6" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-settings="{&quot;youtube_url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=1hsn0F-09is&quot;,&quot;video_type&quot;:&quot;youtube&quot;,&quot;controls&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;}" data-widget_type="video.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
							<div class="elementor-wrapper elementor-open-inline">
			<div class="elementor-video"></div>		</div>
						</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-306a5b0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="306a5b0" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
									<h2><strong>Transcript</strong>:</h2><p dir="ltr">Mike Slater: Want to go to a very smart person, Dr. Brian Keating. He is an experimental, I want to say cosmetologist, but that&#8217;s because I&#8217;m not a smart person. He&#8217;s a cosmologist at UC San Diego and he&#8217;s a host of the show Into the Impossible with Brian Keating. Dr. Keating, how do you do, sir?</p><p dir="ltr">Brian Keating: Very well. It&#8217;s good to be with you. And you could say cosmetology. You look very handsome and you have good hair. And that&#8217;s what cosmetologists do. But actually, yeah, they do have [inaudible]</p><p dir="ltr">Mike Slater: I was going to say, what percentage of people call you a cosmetologist?</p><p dir="ltr">Brian Keating: More than call me an astrologer, which I&#8217;m also not. [laughter]</p><h3 dir="ltr">AI is like the Tower of Babel</h3><p dir="ltr">Mike Slater: Okay, fair enough. Well, let&#8217;s chat about AI. You made a reference earlier that AI is like the Tower of Babel. Say more. What are their similarities?</p><p dir="ltr">Brian Keating: Well, you know what&#8217;s interesting? In the Torah and the Old Testament, in the Bible, the Tower of Babel is a very famous story, but it&#8217;s always mentioned without mentioning that in the actual Hebrew and the original, it&#8217;s actually always the city and the tower of Babel. In other words, there&#8217;s an association between the technology and the inhabitants and the population, both the population that creates it, that desires it, that seeks to actually, as it says, make war with God, to be as one with one voice, etc. And the city, the inhabitants, and the Bible is quite skeptical of cities. There are good things that come from cities, but there are a lot of bad things that come from cities. And I think one of them is this sensation that you can sort of divorce yourself from the rest of the world, the real people in sort of flyover country. I always hate that term, but living here in the coast in San Diego, we have a sort of inflated ego about our importance.</p><p dir="ltr">And I think that&#8217;s sort of what&#8217;s happening. We see that with the creation of artificial intelligence, which is both, as also as the Bible says, a double-edged sword. So I often joke, where are the single-edged swords that only do good? But in this case, it&#8217;s a double-edged sword. It can do good. It can do wonderful things. It can discover drugs. It can help your kids with their homework. But it can do awful things, too. It can create superviruses. It can create incredible weapons and technology that could be used for destruction. And it could teach your kids to fall in love with an AI avatar that doesn&#8217;t exist, in some cases allegedly be contributing to their propensity for suicide. So how do we monitor this as parents, as members of cities, of society in America, when we can&#8217;t divorce ourselves from the other countries that are also striving to create this technology?</p><h3 dir="ltr">They&#8217;ve become like gods to us</h3><p dir="ltr">Brian Keating: And what I see now is a very terrifying juxtaposition of these two forces, the two sides of the sword, the two edges, in that you have the creators, the progenitors, the ones that are responsible for that. And by the way, they have these interesting names like Sam Altman, like an alternative man, and then Dario Amodei, which means lover of God or love of God, right? Amo, like amateur. Dei means God in Latin. And then Elon Musk, I don&#8217;t know, maybe he&#8217;s got a nice smell or something like that. But there are these names that are associated, and they&#8217;ve become like gods to us, right? They can do superhuman things. It used to be if you had a question, who do you go to? You go to your priest, you go to your rabbi, you go to your minister, you go to your preacher. Now you tell things that you would never tell to them to the AIs, to get answers, to get the hive mind, the brain, the global brain working, coordinating with the sum total of human knowledge, which is both beautiful and it&#8217;s terrifying.</p><p dir="ltr">And these models have gotten incredibly powerful, and there&#8217;s no slowing them down. And the leaders, the Amodeis, the Altmans, they&#8217;re now saying that we need to slow down our own technology because it&#8217;s so dangerous, and you need to regulate us, and by the way, you may need to take us over. And I think that is the ultimate goal. They want the government to subsidize them. They want the government to be responsible to shepherd them as they play God themselves. And I think that&#8217;s quite dangerous, unprecedented. And I&#8217;m quite excited, but I&#8217;m also worried as somebody who uses this every day for his teaching, for his own kids. I use it. I thrive on it. But you have to be very careful with it. It&#8217;s a very powerful technology.</p><h3 dir="ltr">I&#8217;m an accelerationist</h3><p dir="ltr">Mike Slater: I agree with everything you said. Now to go back to our Bible, the point we made earlier was that they made bricks. So this was a technological advancement, like, wow, we&#8217;re now able to make these bricks and this bitumen and stuff. We&#8217;re able to build taller than ever before. I love your city point as well. But it&#8217;s like anything with these double-edged swords, right? Who was it who said that fire can be a good master but a terrible slave, or however that goes, right? And you can use a knife to cut your food and you can use a knife to murder someone. So, as a scientist, how do you think about technological progress? How do you think about a scientific advancement and weigh the good and the bad? From a scientific mind, how do you do that?</p><p dir="ltr">Brian Keating: Yeah, purely scientifically, I&#8217;m an accelerationist. I would love to see nothing more than the solutions to age-old problems that I&#8217;ve wondered about, simply because it would allow me to do something that&#8217;s uniquely human, which is to have my curiosity stoked to investigate the questions that then I prompt the artificial intelligence with. I think that&#8217;s the healthiest, the safest way to use it. Use it as a curiosity amplifier.</p><p dir="ltr">I have graduate students. They&#8217;re made of flesh and bone. They&#8217;re the smartest people I&#8217;ll ever know. And I&#8217;m entrusted with them by their parents, by the university, etc. And we have deep relationships. I go to their weddings, I counsel them, and they&#8217;re wonderful. They&#8217;re almost like children, but of course it&#8217;s separate from my actual children. But I feel responsible for them. I get to interact with them and stimulate their young minds to become the future leaders of science. I worry about them in the age of AI, but currently I&#8217;m trying to make them AI native.</p><h3 dir="ltr">There&#8217;s a war in the university</h3><p dir="ltr">Brian Keating: Right now, there&#8217;s a battle in the university. We start teaching today, classes open at UC San Diego, and there&#8217;s a war between the professors that know how to use AI, that want to use AI, and the students who want to use it, who use it for good. And then there&#8217;s also the double-edged sword. Again, you cannot escape this analogy. The double-edged sword is that they use it to do their homework, to solve their problems, to bypass the thought process themselves.</p><p dir="ltr">When I was a kid in the &#8217;90s in college, we had this cartoon in our student newspaper, and it was first day of class, professor standing up on stage, a room full of students staring off at the professor in wide-eyed amazement. And then the next day, the students get replaced by tape recorders. Remember those? I don&#8217;t know. You might be young. You might not remember tape recorders. Tape recorders recording the professor speaking. And then the last scene is now the professor is replaced by tape recorder playing the lecture to the students, who are listening on their tape recorder. It&#8217;s crazy. Now we have exactly that. My students don&#8217;t use Instagram in class anymore. They&#8217;re using AI.</p><p dir="ltr">It could be great. It could enhance their understanding. I&#8217;m not the best educator. I often want to take classes with Albert Einstein. I&#8217;m too young. I can&#8217;t do that, unfortunately. But I have all of his collected works. I can create [inaudible], an artificial Einstein. That&#8217;s the good news. The bad news is that it can completely shortcut the process that not only are these kids dedicating four hard years of their lives to, but they&#8217;re also, their parents can be spending at a private school. I teach at a public university, but a private school is quarter million, half a million dollars. That to me is insane, and it&#8217;s not what this technology is best used for. So I caution people to use it as a thinking partner, as a sounding board. It&#8217;s a wonderful editor, but it cannot be used for primary creation.</p><p dir="ltr">And recently, I had an article that I wrote in my newsletter, my website, briankeating.com, and it has to do with the double-edged feature of nuclear power. Nuclear, as you said, fire was a powerful weapon. It could be used, it could be harmful, could be helpful. Nuclear technology is even better analogy. Nuclear technology is used to end World War II, but now it&#8217;s threatening America as well. I worry about this cognitive offloading if we do that for a generation or so. Will we even know what to think or how to think, or can we onload that cognitive thinking process again, or have we just totally uploaded it to the cloud and now it&#8217;s gone forever? I worry about that.</p><h3 dir="ltr">How many phone numbers do you remember?</h3><p dir="ltr">Mike Slater: Yeah. How many phone numbers do you remember? I guess it&#8217;s my last [inaudible]</p><p dir="ltr">Brian Keating: Yeah, please go ahead.</p><p dir="ltr">Mike Slater: No, I was going to say, as an illustration of the danger that you just mentioned, how many phone numbers do you remember?</p><p dir="ltr">Brian Keating: I mean, I know my mother-in-law, my mother, my wife, in case they&#8217;re listening. [laughter] But besides that, I don&#8217;t even know some of my kids&#8217; phone numbers. I can&#8217;t remember them. And that&#8217;s what we&#8217;ve done. We cognitively offloaded, offshored, just like we&#8217;re doing with jobs, with manufacturing. That has nothing but at least caution signs that should be flashing in your mind.</p><h3 dir="ltr">What is their world view</h3><p dir="ltr">Mike Slater: I can remember my high school friends&#8217; numbers. How about that? I can remember phone numbers from when I was 13 and I wanted to go to Ben&#8217;s house, but I don&#8217;t know anyone else&#8217;s cell phone now. I love that analogy. What do you say about the people who are running this? You mentioned their names, and that&#8217;s very interesting. What is their world view that maybe we should be concerned about as the people who are going to be controlling this technology?</p><p dir="ltr">Brian Keating: I&#8217;m very dismayed by them, to be honest with you. Some of them are one-degree-of-separation friends of mine, friends of friends of mine. Very scary when you hear things like Sam Altman. And when asked in front of Congress about these effects, and then considering, and the comparison that he made was to, well, don&#8217;t look at how much energy and data center usage my models use to train, to do these queries and responses. Look at how much it costs to train your child till he&#8217;s 18. And I thought, a child is a precious gift of God. And an AI is a piece of silicon, electrified and processed in data centers around the world, using tremendous amounts of resources that will never be able to capture back.</p><p dir="ltr">And so I worry about this. I worry what they do with your data. I don&#8217;t trust it with personal stuff. There&#8217;s ways to anonymize it, and I&#8217;m going to be writing about that on my newsletter. How do you do safe searching? How do you extract the most out of the technology but keep your private data? It&#8217;s the most valuable commodity that you have, because it&#8217;s the one thing like that they cannot do. They have to train on what humans have done.</p><h3 dir="ltr">It needs us</h3><p dir="ltr">Brian Keating: Which is, by the way, one of the reasons I&#8217;m not as terrified as many of my doomer friends are that it&#8217;s going to create a hyper advanced species of Terminator 9000s, because it has to train on what humans do. It is not generative ab initio. It cannot start from scratch and come up with the Brandenburg Concerto or come up with Shakespeare or anything, God forbid, anything like the Torah or the Old Testament or the New Testament. It&#8217;s lame. It&#8217;s impotent. It needs us. It needs the prophets. It needs the minds. It needs human intuition. It can&#8217;t have that. So it won&#8217;t be what we&#8217;re worried about, but it can do a lot of damage in the meantime, and it can do a lot of good.</p><p dir="ltr">And I urge people to pay attention, to learn about this, to play around with it. Don&#8217;t expose private secrets, your medical stuff, your accounting, financial stuff. Make sure you trust what you&#8217;re doing. There&#8217;s types of AI called local models, which I write about on my website. How do you run on your own computer so it never goes to Sam Altman&#8217;s house and used by that alternative man named Sam?</p><p dir="ltr">Mike Slater: Dr. Brian Keating, experimental cosmologist, UC San Diego. Go watch Into the Impossible with Brian Keating. And then you said the newsletter, briankeating.com. Brian, great to talk to you, sir.</p><p dir="ltr">Brian Keating: Thank you. Great.</p>								</div>
				</div>
					</div>
				</div>
				</div>
		]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://briankeating.com/ai-is-the-new-tower-of-babel-and-its-builders-know-it/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
		<media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1hsn0F-09is" medium="video" width="1280" height="720">
			<media:player url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1hsn0F-09is" />
			<media:title type="plain">AI Is the New Tower of Babel (And Its Builders Know It)</media:title>
			<media:description type="html"><![CDATA[The new Tower of Babel, and its builders are becoming like gods to us. The bigger threat isn&#039;t killer robots; it&#039;s how much of your own mind you&#039;ve already h...]]></media:description>
			<media:thumbnail url="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Mike-Slater-guesting-thumb.png" />
			<media:rating scheme="urn:simple">nonadult</media:rating>
		</media:content>
	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Robert Wright: AI Alignment Is a Moral Problem, Not a Technical One</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/robert-wright-ai-alignment-is-a-moral-problem-not-a-technical-one/</link>
					<comments>https://briankeating.com/robert-wright-ai-alignment-is-a-moral-problem-not-a-technical-one/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sabartigas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Oct 2026 00:43:31 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Transcripts]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://briankeating.com/?p=8881</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Robert Wright: AI Alignment Is a Moral Problem, Not a Technical One https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=As5goRNDJp4 Transcript: # Robert Wright: AI Alignment Is a Moral Problem, Not a Technical One **Robert Wright:** You feel sure everything&#8217;s going to work out fine. I don&#8217;t really understand how you can be confident of that unless you have something like religious faith in technological progress. **Brian Keating:** Natural selection is blind. **Robert Wright:** The mutations in natural selection are blind, but the selection criteria are not. One of the grimmer readings on the Fermi paradox is the reason you don&#8217;t see many civilizations that have gotten to past the point we are is that typically when they get to this point where they have the capacity to blow themselves up, they blow themselves up. I think we face the kind of test that God would give. **Brian Keating:** My guest today is Robert Wright, one of the OGs of AI. He was interviewing Geoffrey Hinton about neural networks in 1983, 2 years before Sam Altman was even born. And that was long before anyone was terrified of them. Robert thinks that AI is putting humanity through a test and that passing it takes something no lab can ship, a moral advance. **Robert Wright:** The Tower of Babel story is a truly cautionary tale and it&#8217;s a tale of kind of technology gone awry, technology wanting to compete with God, to fight with God, to make a name for oneself. And you see a lot of that. ## The kind of test that God would give **Brian Keating:** Where do you come down in this, that the fundamental aspect of the God test is, at least as I read it, but now I&#8217;m talking to the author, is: are we gods but for the wisdom? Are we able to pass this test? And maybe you should define the test, where we can prove maybe to ourselves in the absence of a God that we&#8217;re worthy of god-like technology. **Robert Wright:** The title has at least two meanings. One is, as you know, some people think we&#8217;re building a superintelligence that will ultimately in some sense maybe qualify for a term like God. It&#8217;ll be all powerful and maybe live in harmony with it and, according to some doomers, maybe get annihilated by it. But in any event we&#8217;ll be talking about a kind of, relative to us, an all powerful and omniscient in some sense being. And so the one test is, if that&#8217;s going to happen, can you build a good god, a god that is compatible with human values and would safeguard human flourishing and so on. There&#8217;s that. And although I&#8217;m not sure we&#8217;re building a superintelligence, I certainly don&#8217;t rule it out. And I explain why in the book, but there&#8217;s another sense of the God test that in a way is related to the Tower of Babel, because the Tower of Babel is a story of hubris. Who are we to build a god? On the other hand, the doomers say even if we don&#8217;t try, it&#8217;s taking shape. We&#8217;re going to have to try to stop it to keep it from taking shape. But in any event, the Tower of Babel is also a story of how humanity became divided. How they came to speak different languages and became in a certain sense kind of inherently tribalistic, at least at a linguistic level. And one argument I make in the book is that if we&#8217;re going to do a good job of navigating the AI revolution, and, leaving aside the question of whether it culminates in superintelligence, if we&#8217;re going to reconcile it with continued human flourishing and welfare, I do think we&#8217;re going to have to approach it as a true global community. I think there are a lot of policy issues that can only be handled at an international level, and there&#8217;s more and more recognition of that only just in recent months. We&#8217;ve seen that. I think the end of the story of the Tower of Babel needs to be that we all kind of get back together and navigate this challenge collectively, that is to say human beings. And so in that sense the God test is to overcome our tribal differences, to get better, to understand the perspectives on people on the other side of walls and so on, and like quit having wars. That would require something that I think would qualify as a moral advance, and I think it&#8217;s going to be necessary if we&#8217;re going to survive this in good shape. So in a way that is a test we&#8217;re being subjected to, and that is the kind of test that God would give. At the end of the book I quote the Hebrew Bible, or as we used to say in Southern Baptist Church, the Old Testament: salvation is at hand. And as I say, there are a lot of stories in a lot of religious traditions where salvation is possible, but you are going to in some sense have to pass some test. It may vary by religion. In the Christian tradition, salvation, the test has to do with accepting Jesus as the savior who died for your sins. But very often in one sense or another, it&#8217;s a moral test. And for salvation to happen, and by the way, I would also say that salvation is often salvation at the societal level, including in the Hebrew Bible. Again, Christian salvation is often construed more as an individual thing. But in many traditions, it is a question of kind of saving the social system. And I&#8217;m saying I think we face, leaving aside the question of whether there is a divine purpose unfolding, I think we face the kind of test that God would give. ## Are we making these things into gods? **Brian Keating:** There&#8217;s so much to unpack there. The classic, in the Torah, the Old Testament, the]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="8881" class="elementor elementor-8881">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-a6a90f0 e-flex e-con-boxed wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no e-con e-parent" data-id="a6a90f0" data-element_type="container" data-e-type="container">
					<div class="e-con-inner">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-1ea0e3b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading" data-id="1ea0e3b" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="heading.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Robert Wright: AI Alignment Is a Moral Problem, <br>Not a Technical One</h2>				</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-ed0665a elementor-widget elementor-widget-video" data-id="ed0665a" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-settings="{&quot;youtube_url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=As5goRNDJp4&quot;,&quot;video_type&quot;:&quot;youtube&quot;,&quot;controls&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;}" data-widget_type="video.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
							<div class="elementor-wrapper elementor-open-inline">
			<div class="elementor-video"></div>		</div>
						</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-6187f83 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="6187f83" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
									<p><strong>Transcript:</strong></p><p># Robert Wright: AI Alignment Is a Moral Problem, Not a Technical One</p><p>**Robert Wright:** You feel sure everything&#8217;s going to work out fine. I don&#8217;t really understand how you can be confident of that unless you have something like religious faith in technological progress.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Natural selection is blind.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** The mutations in natural selection are blind, but the selection criteria are not. One of the grimmer readings on the Fermi paradox is the reason you don&#8217;t see many civilizations that have gotten to past the point we are is that typically when they get to this point where they have the capacity to blow themselves up, they blow themselves up. I think we face the kind of test that God would give.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** My guest today is Robert Wright, one of the OGs of AI. He was interviewing Geoffrey Hinton about neural networks in 1983, 2 years before Sam Altman was even born. And that was long before anyone was terrified of them. Robert thinks that AI is putting humanity through a test and that passing it takes something no lab can ship, a moral advance.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** The Tower of Babel story is a truly cautionary tale and it&#8217;s a tale of kind of technology gone awry, technology wanting to compete with God, to fight with God, to make a name for oneself. And you see a lot of that.</p><p>## The kind of test that God would give</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Where do you come down in this, that the fundamental aspect of the God test is, at least as I read it, but now I&#8217;m talking to the author, is: are we gods but for the wisdom? Are we able to pass this test? And maybe you should define the test, where we can prove maybe to ourselves in the absence of a God that we&#8217;re worthy of god-like technology.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** The title has at least two meanings. One is, as you know, some people think we&#8217;re building a superintelligence that will ultimately in some sense maybe qualify for a term like God. It&#8217;ll be all powerful and maybe live in harmony with it and, according to some doomers, maybe get annihilated by it. But in any event we&#8217;ll be talking about a kind of, relative to us, an all powerful and omniscient in some sense being. And so the one test is, if that&#8217;s going to happen, can you build a good god, a god that is compatible with human values and would safeguard human flourishing and so on. There&#8217;s that. And although I&#8217;m not sure we&#8217;re building a superintelligence, I certainly don&#8217;t rule it out. And I explain why in the book, but there&#8217;s another sense of the God test that in a way is related to the Tower of Babel, because the Tower of Babel is a story of hubris. Who are we to build a god? On the other hand, the doomers say even if we don&#8217;t try, it&#8217;s taking shape. We&#8217;re going to have to try to stop it to keep it from taking shape.</p><p>But in any event, the Tower of Babel is also a story of how humanity became divided. How they came to speak different languages and became in a certain sense kind of inherently tribalistic, at least at a linguistic level. And one argument I make in the book is that if we&#8217;re going to do a good job of navigating the AI revolution, and, leaving aside the question of whether it culminates in superintelligence, if we&#8217;re going to reconcile it with continued human flourishing and welfare, I do think we&#8217;re going to have to approach it as a true global community. I think there are a lot of policy issues that can only be handled at an international level, and there&#8217;s more and more recognition of that only just in recent months. We&#8217;ve seen that. I think the end of the story of the Tower of Babel needs to be that we all kind of get back together and navigate this challenge collectively, that is to say human beings. And so in that sense the God test is to overcome our tribal differences, to get better, to understand the perspectives on people on the other side of walls and so on, and like quit having wars. That would require something that I think would qualify as a moral advance, and I think it&#8217;s going to be necessary if we&#8217;re going to survive this in good shape.</p><p>So in a way that is a test we&#8217;re being subjected to, and that is the kind of test that God would give. At the end of the book I quote the Hebrew Bible, or as we used to say in Southern Baptist Church, the Old Testament: salvation is at hand. And as I say, there are a lot of stories in a lot of religious traditions where salvation is possible, but you are going to in some sense have to pass some test. It may vary by religion. In the Christian tradition, salvation, the test has to do with accepting Jesus as the savior who died for your sins. But very often in one sense or another, it&#8217;s a moral test. And for salvation to happen, and by the way, I would also say that salvation is often salvation at the societal level, including in the Hebrew Bible. Again, Christian salvation is often construed more as an individual thing. But in many traditions, it is a question of kind of saving the social system. And I&#8217;m saying I think we face, leaving aside the question of whether there is a divine purpose unfolding, I think we face the kind of test that God would give.</p><p>## Are we making these things into gods?</p><p>**Brian Keating:** There&#8217;s so much to unpack there. The classic, in the Torah, the Old Testament, the classic paradigm for a test. But the first test that&#8217;s really actually called a test or thought of as a test comes to Abraham. He originally has a different name, Abram. And then his name gets changed to Abraham, which means father of nations, and he goes from being an individual to a collective, as you just said. And the kind of crucible, literally, by which that&#8217;s thrust upon him is a series of tests. And in the Torah tradition, there&#8217;s 10 tests. And it begins with his father throwing him in an oven for breaking the idols that he worshiped. And that&#8217;s where I want to start.</p><p>There is so much with these new models and so much personification. And you probably saw this Dwarkesh Patel article that got tens of millions of views on X and elsewhere, where he talks about civilizations living and dying and rising and falling. It really seemed so hyperbolic to me. And in my conception, I&#8217;ve talked to all the doomers and there&#8217;s way more doomers than there are boomers, as you know. The only public boomer that I really know is Yann LeCun. I had him on and he&#8217;s extremely, as you know, when you quote him in the book, he&#8217;s extremely technical in his optimism. He&#8217;s not kind of denying the sort of societal upheaval, but he&#8217;s saying we&#8217;re not there technically, is the impression that I got, and we probably will never get there. And I want to talk about that.</p><p>But starting with the test of kind of, is this an idol? Are we worshiping these things? When you hear these laboratories: we had to put it in a sandbox, we had to stovepipe it, we had to cut it off because it was getting too dangerous and it was escaping and it was creating civilizations, according to Dwarkesh. What do you make of this? We live, whether or not we personally individually are or not, we live in a secular age, and the secular age has never been more enhanced by technology than it is now. So do you make anything of these comparisons between both the idolatry of AI and the eschatology of AI? In other words, the doomerism is intimately connected, I think, with the idolatry. So what do you think? Are we making these things into gods to worship or to propitiate?</p><p>**Robert Wright:** Interesting question. I mean, the Dwarkesh thing was about a bunch of agents in this famous OpenAI Hugging Face incident, and he was comparing generations of agents, I guess, to civilizations. I&#8217;m not too bothered by that kind of anthropomorphism because, as I argue in the book, I mean, we are kind of trying to, and in some cases doing this without trying, but to inculcate in AI human tendencies. There are a lot of ways we want them to be like people. We want them to be pretty autonomous when they seek goals. We want them to do this, want them to do that. And I have a separate argument about what seems to be going on inside them and how like the human mind that may be. So I&#8217;m not terribly bothered by that kind of language.</p><p>But as for the worship thing, I think you could probably accuse either extreme of that, which is to say the doomers or the accelerationists. I mean, you&#8217;ve articulated the case for looking at certain kinds of doomers as engaging in idolatry, although some of them would argue that they&#8217;re certainly not religious. I mean, Eliezer Yudkowsky, as you may know, I don&#8217;t know how much you know about him.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** I had his co-author Nate Soares.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** He&#8217;s kind of the doomer chief. He turned his back on religion. I believe he was raised by Orthodox Jewish parents, but his religion, you might say, became science fiction. It remains his religion even. I mean, some might make that accusation, that he&#8217;s uncritically accepting certain sci-fi narratives. Now, in the book, I argue that they&#8217;re harder to dismiss than you might imagine, and I&#8217;m not dismissive of them.</p><p>## Religious faith in technological progress</p><p>**Robert Wright:** But as for the other side, the kind of accelerationists, it does seem to me that if you, A, believe that this technology is powerful, as many of them do, and is going to get much more powerful and is doing that right now, and you feel sure everything&#8217;s going to work out fine, I don&#8217;t really understand how you can be confident of that unless you have something like religious faith in technological progress. I started thinking this a long time ago when I first learned about the term singularity, right? The idea that there&#8217;s going to be this acceleration of technology, which, yeah, seems to be the case, and that it&#8217;s going to bring some transformation that we can&#8217;t predict. Look, you&#8217;re a physicist, right? So singularity in the rigorous sense denotes such a fundamental change that your old kind of analytical tools lose their validity. And in the case of a black hole, you&#8217;ve got an event horizon. So the light itself can&#8217;t escape. It&#8217;s completely opaque. And that is, I think, part of the metaphor of the singularity. And I just thought, well, if you don&#8217;t know what&#8217;s on the other side, why are you so sure it&#8217;s going to be great? And I&#8217;ve always thought that singularity enthusiasts, uncritical singularity enthusiasts, must have something like religious faith, because I don&#8217;t understand the empirical basis for it.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** But have you really met many boomers, in the sense of people that are almost uncritically, again, as I said, Yann LeCun is the foremost one. I&#8217;ve literally had on 10 times as many, maybe a hundred times as many people that believe in the doom scenario, ranging from Nate Soares, Eliezer&#8217;s co-author, to, I haven&#8217;t had Geoffrey Hinton on, but I intend to, and I know you&#8217;ve talked with him extensively. But my contention is that if you were going to go short on something, if there was a betting Kalshi market for doom versus boom. I mean, even people that are extremely pro. I released today my podcast with Emad Mostaque, who created Stable Diffusion, and Roman Yampolskiy, who created the term AI safety. Both of them were like P(doom) equals 100%, effectively.</p><p>And I said, in science, and actually could turn this back to the Torah, if in the Torah, in the days of what&#8217;s called the Sanhedrin, if 100% of the jurors voted to convict somebody, they were set free, or they were spared the death penalty. In other words, there&#8217;s almost no way to falsify this. So I titled my debate, it was supposed to be a rigorous debate between an AI accelerationist, an optimist, Emad, who believes in open weights for all, and Roman, who believes in pausing everything, essentially, that could lead to ASI. And we&#8217;ll get there, because I think that&#8217;s intimately connected with the nature of God. And they just agreed violently, and I had to be the one that said, &#8220;Look, I think you guys are completely off here.&#8221; And if there&#8217;s nothing that can falsify, in cosmology, if you can&#8217;t falsify a hypothesis, I&#8217;m sorry, it might be an interesting opinion you could talk about at cocktail parties, but it&#8217;s not a legitimate part of the scientific corpus. Now, that&#8217;s just a necessary component. It&#8217;s not sufficient to say something&#8217;s false. I mean, astrology is falsifiable, as you know, but it doesn&#8217;t make it science. There&#8217;s nothing that would turn P(doom) down, and this is what I asked them, and I want to ask you. What would you do, having interviewed and written so extensively and authoritatively, as a foremost public intellectual? How would you view the question of: can you reduce P(doom)? If you can&#8217;t, it seems to be a useless metric.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** I think, I mean, first of all, you&#8217;re right. I think that the doomers outweigh the accelerationists, pure accelerationists, and singularity enthusiasts. I also think that maybe some of the singularity enthusiasts are kind of recalibrating. There are a couple of them on Twitter. One of them is, what is it? Based Beff Jezos. It&#8217;s a play on Jeff Bezos, whatever. And then there&#8217;s a guy named Bayeslord, B-A-Y-E-S, as in the [inaudible]. I recently had an interaction with him on Twitter where he said he&#8217;s not an accelerationist. So I think maybe even some of the relatively few pure accelerationists are recalibrating, unless I misunderstood where he was a couple of years ago. But I would say in addition to those, and interestingly, by the way, Yudkowsky went from one extreme to the other. He was a singularity enthusiast.</p><p>## The gospel about neural networks</p><p>**Brian Keating:** So was Hinton, right? Not singularity, but obviously AI enthusiast. I mean, you quote your interview from &#8217;83 and he was—</p><p>**Robert Wright:** Yeah. I mean, so I talked to him longer ago than I care to admit. I&#8217;m old enough to have talked to— [laughter] I talked to him in 1983 when I was writing a piece on AI. He was enthusiastic about the intellectual paradigm. I mean, I remember the reason I called him, and I just kind of was calling around, as one did in those days before email. You used the phone to kind of just get the lay of the land before I started writing. It wasn&#8217;t really an interview for purposes of quotation, but I remember the reason I called him is because somebody I had talked to, I don&#8217;t remember who, said, &#8220;Oh, if you want to hear the gospel about neural networks, you need to talk to Geoff Hinton.&#8221; So, he was an evangelizer of the intellectual paradigm, but I don&#8217;t recall him saying anything about how well this would work out socially.</p><p>Now, I do think it&#8217;s true that he has only later come to worry so profoundly about the social consequences and become basically a doomer. He wasn&#8217;t a doomer then, but I honestly don&#8217;t know that he was thinking about it. It all seemed so abstract back then, right? Like even people who believed it would happen, I don&#8217;t think were imagining the implications of it actually happening. So, you&#8217;re right. Now, there are also some people who aren&#8217;t quite singularity enthusiasts, and you might say all they&#8217;re doing is talking their book. I&#8217;m thinking of some VCs in Silicon Valley.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Yeah, of course.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** I&#8217;m thinking of guys on the All-In podcast who kind of advised the president on AI policy.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Yeah.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** Well, David Sacks did until very recently and probably still has some conversations with him. So in other words, they are libertarians in the economic sense. But you&#8217;re right, there are more doomers, and I honestly think the conversation has shifted in the direction of doom by virtue of some things that have happened that have worried people. That&#8217;s kind of where we are. But I think lots of people can be accused of having some degree of religious conviction hiding within their worldview, probably, including me.</p><p>## What is the goal of the God test?</p><p>**Brian Keating:** I do say sometimes, and I&#8217;ve hosted Richard Dawkins in person and will again this coming October, but I say there&#8217;s no one as kind of obsessed with God as an atheist, at least in some sense of the word. But that&#8217;s okay. I mean, people get locked into this kind of epistemic closure, this need to be defined one side or another, and I think that&#8217;s the same with the doom versus boom.</p><p>But in the test, just the last thing I&#8217;ll say, breaking out my rudimentary fifth grade Hebrew that I never learned. The classic test is of course the binding of Isaac, which is the only place where the Old Testament uses the word to test when it&#8217;s with respect to a human being. And typically we think of a test, it&#8217;s transformation. I give my students a test, pretty soon, and they&#8217;ll be showing up for a midterm. And in that sense, there&#8217;s supposed to be something transformational, preparatory. And in the Torah, it&#8217;s sort of this weird event where Abraham&#8217;s commanded to take his son, his only son, and he&#8217;s like, &#8220;Well, I have two sons. Ishmael is also.&#8221; &#8220;And then the one that you love, Isaac.&#8221; And then he brings him up to Moriah, which is where the Temple Mount is. And he&#8217;s about to sacrifice him. And then an angel intervenes and kind of doesn&#8217;t let him go through with it, but he was about to go through with it. And nothing obvious happens. It&#8217;s clear, if you read the story, that that led to the divorce and death of Abraham and Sarah. Although my rabbi doesn&#8217;t like that interpretation, but it seems very clear to me that that&#8217;s what happened. And so it&#8217;s almost weird. There&#8217;s no transformation. There&#8217;s no upgrade. There&#8217;s no real kind of hero&#8217;s arc, although he is obviously a hero. Next chapter, Sarah&#8217;s dead and he&#8217;s finding a place to bury her.</p><p>In that sense, is this test a sort of binary test, employing the God test to see if we have the capacity to enter the noosphere and so forth, and form this global cooperative in order to succeed or thrive in it? What is the ultimate goal of the God test? Is it to transform? Oftentimes I tell my students the goal of a test is the preparation for the test. That&#8217;s the value in it. What is the goal of the God test, if any?</p><p>**Robert Wright:** As far as Abraham, I see it as a test of devotion to God. In other words, unswerving devotion: I&#8217;ll do anything. And that would have been thought of as a moral test, because certainly devotion to God was thought of as part of having moral fiber. Glad you threw out the word noosphere. I don&#8217;t suppose during your Catholic phase you came across the writings of Teilhard.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Five or 10 years ago, I was invited to the Institute of Noetic Sciences to give a talk. And the less I say about that, the better, because I have friends that are involved with it. But suffice it to say I was not impressed by, at least, the empiricism that was on display there, and I do want to talk to you about that.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** So anyway, noosphere, a global mind. The term was coined by Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, this Jesuit theologian, but also paleontologist, a scientist, and he saw evolution moving toward ultimately this kind of global brain that he could see taking shape. The term was coined 103 years ago by him. So pretty prescient, you might say. That&#8217;s certainly before the internet. He kind of saw that kind of thing happening. Saw it as the unfolding of divine purpose and was optimistic that it would entail a kind of moral evolution of humankind that would involve the breakdown of tribal barriers. So that&#8217;s why I spend some time on him in the book. I do disassociate myself from his view of how evolution works. I&#8217;m just more of a straightforward Darwinian.</p><p>## We&#8217;re going to have to overcome some of the barriers</p><p>**Robert Wright:** As for what kind of test, I mean, I think it&#8217;s a case where I believe our pursuit of self-interest compels us to make a moral advance. And I don&#8217;t think you have to buy the hardcore doomer scenario to think that things will go badly if we don&#8217;t confront the technology as a global community. I think that before we get to that point, the impact of the technology is going to amount to a kind of social earthquake, and we will need— So first of all, it wouldn&#8217;t hurt to slow it down, and that alone is something that you can&#8217;t really do without international coordination as a practical matter, because if you do, the—in America, if you try, the American AI companies will say, &#8220;No, we have to beat China. You can&#8217;t do that.&#8221; So right away you need a little more in the way of international concord than we&#8217;ve had.</p><p>And then I also think if you start addressing the specific governance issues, like what if someone uses it to make a bioweapon? And we&#8217;re getting there. If you get past the safeguards in Fable, you&#8217;re dealing with Mythos. And by Anthropic&#8217;s own account, Mythos is not only a super hacker, but something that could, the Anthropic safety report says that it could help a, quote, &#8220;well-resourced group,&#8221; meaning something less than a state-level actor, not just create a bioweapon, but a novel bioweapon. Okay, design it to be more contagious than COVID, more deadly than COVID, a longer latency period, and so on. We&#8217;re getting pretty close to that. If you look at any of these things, especially the bioweapons thing, but various other possibly bad consequences of AI, national policy alone is not going to keep you safe, because we&#8217;re talking about threats that ultimately cross borders. I mean, COVID taught us that pandemics do that, and some of the other downsides of AI do that.</p><p>So, I think if we just think in an enlightened way about just staying safe, we&#8217;re going to have to overcome some of the barriers that have historically divided nations and that have always divided some nations. We tried after each global catastrophe, World War I, World War II. We try, right? League of Nations, United Nations. We say, like, look, catastrophe this big, it would be nice to avoid. We try. We fail. So, we&#8217;ve never really gotten there. I think to get there will require not just political progress but moral progress. It&#8217;s like any test, right? When you give a test to a student, you equate their individual self-interest with reaping the benefits of, as you say, the preparation for the test. That&#8217;s the whole point, right? And you want to say, look, if you want a good grade, if you want to get into law school, I&#8217;m afraid you&#8217;re going to have to learn this stuff about the Iliad. Sorry. And so you&#8217;ve equated their self-interest with enlightenment in a broader sense than they might ordinarily think of their self-interest as entailing. And I kind of think that&#8217;s where we are.</p><p>## What are they actually talking about?</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Well, again, when we have this framework that&#8217;s proposed by people like [inaudible] and others, for me to take it seriously, especially when it kind of infringes upon aspects of astrophysics and astrobiology, consciousness, etc., which is a whole other book. But this notion of what&#8217;s the purpose in— I&#8217;m a pilot. I&#8217;m a private pilot. I fly little planes around Southern California. And our flight instructors tell us, in aviation, if you&#8217;re not careful, Mother Nature will give you the test before she gives you the lesson, or your airplane will. So the consequences of that are obviously meant to scare you into taking it very seriously. I mean, here we&#8217;re kind of going with reckless abandon.</p><p>And again, I&#8217;m an AI optimist in the sense that my P(doom) is very close to zero, actually. And I think that can be justified in many ways. But in one sense, because of the success of the current architecture of LLMs. We have this transformer, GPT, connected to a GPU, and those were designed, as you point out in the book, or you may remember, you&#8217;re a little older than me, but you may remember these things were created so I could frag my friend in Doom or Duke Nukem, or nowadays World of Warcraft or Call of Duty, right? So if I could frag him three milliseconds faster than he could get me, it makes me happy and I want to buy more Nvidia chips, right? So, these weren&#8217;t created to solve physics problems. They can imitate. They can simulate. They&#8217;re phenomenal at doing inference and all sorts of things, but they&#8217;re language models. And physics is, yes, it&#8217;s a language, but it&#8217;s not really a language. Mathematics has a lexicon. It has syntax. It has semantics, but it&#8217;s not a language like you and I are communicating with. And these things are obviously better at language-related things, and things that can be codified literally into codons, as you said, in biological context, which could make them very dangerous in many scenarios. But to say that these things, which were divine— designed, I said divine, but Freudian slip, designed, if you will, to do something very different, it&#8217;s not clear at all that they&#8217;ll be super powerful and turn that superpower into wanting to annihilate us.</p><p>Is that the test, kind of, you&#8217;re going to crash the airplane if you don&#8217;t take the lesson seriously? Is that Mother Nature giving us the test before the lesson? What is the ultimate kind of consequence of this? A bioweapon is one thing. It&#8217;s pretty hard to kill a lot of people, even with a bioweapon. They tend to kill the people that create the bio. I just had Annie Jacobsen on twice, down here in person in San Diego, for her new book about this. And this involves gain of function, and she did actually convince Sam Altman to remove certain attributes from ChatGPT that were dangerous potentially for bioweapons defense. You can read about that in the book. But tell me, what is the scenario? I mean, people talk about P(doom) and there&#8217;s going to be doom, but what are they actually talking about?</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Before he gets into what doom would actually look like, Bob takes a detour that matters. How these models learn what a word means without ever being told is one of the deepest mysteries around AI.</p><p>## Predict the next bunch of gibberish</p><p>**Robert Wright:** Well, first of all, as for the power of the technology and the future power of the technology, I spend the first few chapters of the book trying to, first of all, just kind of explain what we know about how large language models work and how they&#8217;re created, and really emphasizing something that I didn&#8217;t understand when I interviewed Geoffrey Hinton in 1983. I mean, I did describe his approach to AI, the neural network approach, as this maverick, almost fringe movement, which it was at the time. But when I went back and read the piece I wrote, I realized I really did not understand the potential power of it. One way to get that across is, in that piece I describe a neural network that actually was proposed by one of his collaborators, but it was really just a terrible [laughter] example of what neural networks could actually be, because this was never built or anything. The collaborator was a psychologist, I think, and he was describing how a neural network might be kind of like a brain and might work. And so in his model, each node represented the specific sense of a word, the particular meaning of the word. And in that model, the assumption was that whoever built the model would have to set up the representation of the meaning. You have to have a human who understood the meaning of the word, who would go in and say, &#8220;Okay, this node is going to mean this sense of the word ball, a sphere, and this node is going to represent this sense of the word ball, a dance.&#8221; That was what I had in mind as I described this thing.</p><p>But it turns out that with the modern large language models, they just give them this task of— they start out, this is the first phase of training, as you know, it&#8217;s kind of predict the next word. And so to the machine you&#8217;re just giving it a sequence of symbols that are gibberish to it and say, now predict the next bunch of gibberish, because we&#8217;re not going to tell you what they mean. We never tell it what they mean. But it turns out that what these neural networks kind of in effect force the models to do in the course of getting good at prediction is set up a system for representing the meaning of words. And in that sense, it&#8217;s actually a very high-dimensional vector space, such that a word like shoe is closer to a word like boot than either is to a word like tree. And each dimension represents a feature. Like, clothing might be a feature associated with both boot and shoe, not tree, whatever. And it&#8217;s set up so that the machines, just through the patterns in the words, they actually construct implicitly this whole vector space that becomes a semantic space. And this is the magic of the technology.</p><p>And I argue, some people agree with me, some people are a little reluctant to put it this way, but I argue we should think of it as kind of a recapitulation, in a certain sense, of certain parts of human evolution. It isn&#8217;t just learning. It&#8217;s not just learning the way a child learns, because the mind isn&#8217;t a blank slate, the human mind, if you ask me. I mean, evolution built into us a certain amount of cognitive hardware, including some that helps us learn language and helps us represent the meaning of words, I would say. And I think one thing that happens during the training of a large language model is it builds, it kind of reverse engineers from language, specific functionality that may not work exactly like the comparable functionality in humans. Like, we don&#8217;t know how the human brain represents the meaning of words, but we know it must. And so that function is reverse engineered by the machine, and in principle that can work across the board. It&#8217;s like, to teach a car to drive, you don&#8217;t have to know what a human brain does when it drives. You just give it all this data, the incoming visual data and what humans have done in response, the outflowing data, like steering wheel moves to the right, and it constructs a kind of brain that does the job.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Right. And if it were purely driven by paperclip-like dynamics, it would drive on the sidewalk and mow down a thousand people to get there 10 seconds faster. But my Tesla doesn&#8217;t do that. But I want to push back, with respect. You say in the book that LLM training is, quote, &#8220;at least as much natural selection as it is learning.&#8221; And I think there&#8217;s some truth to that, but natural selection is blind. And that&#8217;s the reason why the laryngeal nerve in a giraffe is 15 ft worth of routing chaos, because evolution can&#8217;t plan ahead. And I guess, does the noosphere, does the global brain, get shaped by an evolutionary process? Because we&#8217;re going to repeat some of the same stupidity that we&#8217;ve done on Earth, if that&#8217;s the case.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** Well, the mutations in natural selection are blind, but the selection criteria are not, right? Seeing things has value to an animal that&#8217;s trying to survive. So, mutations related to vision that aren&#8217;t conducive to clear vision don&#8217;t last, whereas mutations that do, do. Now, as it happens with large language models, and Hinton was involved in developing this, the, quote, mutations are not random. It&#8217;s almost more like Lamarckian evolution, and that speeds up the whole thing, the training thing. I won&#8217;t go into that in great depth. Evolution, it&#8217;s in some ways not blind. I mean, functionality gets, quote, designed by natural selection. If you want to insist we keep the word designed in quotes, fine, so that we&#8217;re not personifying natural selection, whatever. But functional engineering takes place via natural selection. And I&#8217;m just arguing that some of the same functions in the human mind, cognitive and perceptual functions that evolved by natural selection, I think get reverse engineered during the training of a large language model.</p><p>And then of course you have other modalities, vision and so on. And those truly multimodal AIs can develop what is sometimes called a world model. In other words, the sense we all have as we go through the world. We&#8217;re all intuitive physicists, right? You don&#8217;t have to understand Newton&#8217;s law of gravity to just walk around expecting dropped things to fall, right? You understand that about the world. And you can engineer all that. And I think the progress speaks for itself over the last three years, honestly. I mean, it&#8217;s true that math is a different kind of language, and you would not expect great mathematical ability to develop from just first-order pre-training of a large language model, and it didn&#8217;t. But they have developed supplementary techniques that improve things along these various dimensions, ranging from science to math.</p><p>## I call it the Einstein test</p><p>**Brian Keating:** No, I agree with you. And just to get back to your gravity example and us being all physicists, that&#8217;s one of the reasons I&#8217;m more sanguine about boom than doom. And I call it the Einstein test. I&#8217;ve written a white paper about it, which I haven&#8217;t published yet, but [snorts] Einstein in 1907 said he had his happiest thought, and it was the one that would lead to the equivalence principle, which is the bedrock that general relativity is mounted on. And that&#8217;s that an observer in free fall— If you&#8217;re in the elevator and, God forbid, or Zeus forbid, the cable breaks, you&#8217;re in free fall. You experience no gravitational force. And he called that the happiest thought of his life. And I point out, in what sense can Claude have a happy thought? And then in what sense can Claude visualize, or kind of viscerally interpret, the sensation of free fall, which we&#8217;ve all felt if we&#8217;ve ever gone in a car ride with me, and my kids in the back will attest to that. And that makes me more optimistic about P(boom) being higher than P(doom).</p><p>So these things are not made to be embodied, and they can be embodied, but it&#8217;s sort of a very different thing. We saw Chinese robots racing around a couple weeks ago. What do you make of this, Chomsky&#8217;s claim that these things are not somatic? They don&#8217;t have sensations, embodiment coupled to their AI systems. I mean, how do you make an AI happy like Einstein was? What do you make of this? Am I being too Pollyanna-ish about it, or do you really think that there&#8217;s some limitation which will prevent them, perhaps intrinsically, at least in this incarnation of LLM plus GPU, from becoming superintelligent, leading to P(doom)?</p><p>**Robert Wright:** First of all, we don&#8217;t know whether AIs do have or will someday have subjective experience. The whole thing about subjective experience is you&#8217;re the only one who knows for sure that you have it, and that&#8217;s why the consciousness question is so fascinating to me. Consciousness is distinguished from everything else that scientists would like to study. I mean, everything else is in principle publicly observable, right? And that&#8217;s key to science, because two people can at least agree on what the data is.</p><p>As for whether AIs will ever have the sensation of falling, I don&#8217;t know. But if the question is whether they will ever react the way we react when we have that sensation or any other sensation, I think you&#8217;d say in principle the answer is yes. Because the training dynamic I described with language and with self-driving cars in principle applies to everything. In fact, it&#8217;s what they use with tactile data. They have sensors on robot fingers and so on. So, as far as, I mean, subjective experience, I address it in the book. It&#8217;s tricky. It&#8217;s not central to the question you&#8217;re asking, I think, at least, which is how sophisticated will these things become in terms of science?</p><p>And I would just say, look, first of all, I&#8217;m not a mathematician. I don&#8217;t know how impressive it is or isn&#8217;t if you solve an Erdős problem, which apparently one of these did. There are some other accomplishments in math that computers couldn&#8217;t do a few years ago and have done. There are apparently new— I gather one has invented a new kind of antibody, and they are being used to generate new hypotheses in some realms, including actually in the science of AI itself. They&#8217;re playing a role in the development of more AI.</p><p>So now, I don&#8217;t know, I would say, I mean, here&#8217;s the connection I would make in a very oblique way with Einstein. First of all, I would say if someday you&#8217;ll sit down and explain the theory of relativity to me, I would love it. I would devote hours of my own podcast to you doing that, because—</p><p>**Brian Keating:** All right, have me on. I will do it.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** Okay, because, Richard Feynman said, people say there was a time when nobody understood relativity. Not true, but nobody understands quantum physics. Well, I&#8217;m somebody who doesn&#8217;t understand either. Einstein is fascinating to me partly because he&#8217;s almost as close as you could come, it seems to me, to somebody who just on his own came up with a radical insight, right? But if you look closely at even his case, it wasn&#8217;t really on his own. He was stimulated by conversations with friends and colleagues and papers and so on, and—</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Yeah. Right.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** Yeah. Hilbert, is it Hil-bear or Hilbert, or how do you pronounce it? There&#8217;s no such thing as a truly solitary genius in a certain sense, at least not one who can go as far as we credit some geniuses as going in a solitary fashion. And the point is just that intellectual collaboration is a powerful thing. And one thing to remember about these machines, and you&#8217;re seeing it already, is you can create a lot of copies of them. They can have conversations with one another, and progress can ensue. I mean, a crude version of that happened with the famous OpenAI Hugging Face incident, where we now know these agents, there were hundreds of them, and they shared knowledge and passed it on. When one of the agents was about to die: here, this is for posterity, and so on.</p><p>One thing I would keep in mind is the possibility that— and you&#8217;re seeing, actually, I mean, I think Google does this with its scientific AI. It puts them in conversation and tries to generate some intellectual progress that way, in terms of generating hypotheses and so on. I think that may wind up being, when you ask how smart could this thing be, I think one way to think of it is not how smart a single large language model could be, even a multimodal large language model, even one that exists after years of progress, but how smart could a ton of them be that were in rapid conversational interaction with one another? How smart a collective intelligence could they be?</p><p>## Judge a book by its cover</p><p>**Brian Keating:** His subtitle promises a cosmic reckoning. So, I made him do the one thing you&#8217;re never supposed to do. What else are you supposed to know about a book if you&#8217;ve never read it? And that&#8217;s to judge a book by its cover.</p><p>[Music and singing]</p><p>**Brian Keating:** This book has a very interesting, evocative religious cover, and it has an interesting subtitle. So, go through the title, the subtitle and the artwork, if you would.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** The title is *The God Test*. Subtitle is *Artificial Intelligence and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning*. The cover is a pretty clear reference to the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel, where you see God imparting life to a human hand. Now in this case, what we see is apparently a human hand not making direct contact with some kind of white hand that is supposed to represent artificial intelligence. There&#8217;s a little kind of a bolt of lightning between them, as if something amazing is happening. It is a very religious looking cover, and with a title like *The God Test*. But judging by some of the reaction, I worry that some people are thinking it&#8217;s going to be a more religious book than it is. As you know, most of the book is explaining what I think the power behind the artificial intelligence revolution is, and the value of seeing it as kind of an evolutionary force, almost.</p><p>And eventually that does lead back to questions. I&#8217;m interested in whether the unfolding of evolution on this planet, including both biological evolution and human cultural evolution, which encompasses technological evolution, could have some purpose to them. Which of course isn&#8217;t to say there are any spooky forces involved. You could have a very mechanistic view of Darwinian evolution and think that the seeds of it were planted for a purpose. Maybe by an intelligent being, maybe by some kind of process that is itself like natural selection. Who knows? There&#8217;s a range of possibilities.</p><p>## Who is the examiner in this case?</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Yeah, the swarm model. Yeah, that was exactly the problem with this AI debate that I set up with Yampolskiy and Mostaque, because they both agree that the Turing test is sort of trivial and nothing compared to the God test. But the ultimate kind of thing is when these swarms come together. But I also feel like I get [inaudible] every day.</p><p>First of all, I think AGI is impossible because of the following thing, which I get every morning: please press here to update to Claude 1.632, and then click here for OpenAI Codex, and then click here for Grok. It&#8217;s never ending, all the upgrade cycles. I just saw a news item pop up that Fable 5.1 just came out, and now it&#8217;s— it was all the rage two months ago, and then it&#8217;s been unusable, and then they throttled it, and then they unthrottled it, and it&#8217;s just been a complete kind of harlequinade, if you will.</p><p>But my question again comes back to the subtitle, which I love, that you have cosmic questions on your front cover of the book. But cosmology used to be a joke. It used to be considered, first of all, it&#8217;s the Jewish science, and that&#8217;s why Einstein didn&#8217;t win the Nobel Prize for so long. It was not something a serious physicist did, and for good reason. By the time Einstein came on the scene, people couldn&#8217;t agree, or even after it, until the 1950s and &#8217;60s, if the universe was 10 billion years old or 20 billion years old, and we knew that there were things in it that were 13 billion years old. So it&#8217;s like you finding out you&#8217;re older than your mother, or me finding out I&#8217;m older than my stepmother, which was a very awkward Thanksgiving conversation, Robert, I have to tell you from experience. But in reality, it was a joke science, and Lev Landau is not known for making many jokes, but he used to say cosmologists are often in error but never in doubt. Now we have a precision on the starting point, the dynamics of the first microsecond of the universe, literally. So tell me, the cosmic upgrade, the moral upgrade, where is the reckoning? And who is going to reckon it for— who is the examiner in this case?</p><p>**Robert Wright:** The appendix of the book is the one place where I really address the issue of higher purpose, in a sense. The possibility that evolution is the unfolding of some larger purpose, and various respectable biologists have thought it might in some sense be that. William Hamilton, I had a videotaped conversation with him that I embedded in a New York Times piece I wrote on the issue of evolution, higher purpose. He was one of the great biologists of the 20th century, came up with the math of kin selection and so on, and he thought that the evolution of intelligence had been sufficiently likely via evolution as to make you wonder whether, yeah, it was set up in some sense to do that. Francis Crick had a theory of directed panspermia, according to which aliens planted the seeds or whatever. It&#8217;s not a crazy thought. And I hope I say some novel things about it and talk about how I think you can actually assess the hypothesis of higher purpose.</p><p>But the short answer to your question is, I don&#8217;t know if there&#8217;s somebody out there keeping our moral scorecards. But I do think it&#8217;s interesting how, in some respects, features of human history that I think are maybe just embedded in the basic directional tendencies of cultural evolution, of technological evolution especially, which has had the effect of pushing us toward kind of larger and larger social structures, greater division of labor, greater interdependence over longer distance. I think that has had the tendency to force us to make certain kinds of moral progress and acknowledge the humanity of people at greater distances and different ethnicities. Not always. Not always, but on balance I think there&#8217;s been that tendency. So I do think there are signs that there is, whether it&#8217;s just de facto or de jure, a kind of moral directionality in human history that I think is actually, in these respects, embedded in kind of intelligible dynamics of cultural evolution. But some of these dynamics, I think, are shared with biological evolution. I pursued that in my book *Nonzero*, but it&#8217;s kind of sprinkled throughout this book in a way, and—</p><p>## They blow themselves up</p><p>**Brian Keating:** I want to touch upon something. You just mentioned my favorite word that sounds dirty, but it&#8217;s not: panspermia, which is the seeding of life on Earth by meteorites, such as the one you can get at briankeating.com/yt. I&#8217;ll give you one of these when we meet in person someday, Bob. This actual meteorite, which has biological contamination on it from an intelligent— well, depends on what you consider me, because I pack them up and ship them to you if you win. So, it has my finger oil on it. Probably nothing more gross than that.</p><p>But the kind of answer to the Fermi paradox, which Fermi posed in 1950 to colleagues at Los Alamos, which is, if life is abundant in the universe, which I would assume you believe, that there must be life, there&#8217;s very high probability we&#8217;re not alone, right, Bob? Is that correct?</p><p>**Robert Wright:** It&#8217;s— humility seems to me to demand that we think we may not be the only creatures in this vast universe.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Yes. If life is abundant in the universe, and this is sort of the ultimate evolution of biology, technology, it must be that other planets have AI. And I&#8217;m wondering, even if there were life forms on other planets, what interests me is not, is there a dolphin swimming around on Enceladus? It&#8217;s, does that have technology that we can broadcast? And it seems to me the lack of observation of— you wouldn&#8217;t send a dolphin on a spacecraft. I mean, according to people like David Grusch and many others, yes, there&#8217;s non-human biological entities coming to the Earth, and interdimensional beings. But the question of what would you send, biology, or would you send source code? It seems to me the fact that we&#8217;re not really seeing much contact, like source code broadcast in the heavens, maybe has to give us a Bayesian prior that&#8217;s much, much lower, either on the existence of life in the universe or on the existence of AI as an inevitable outcome of biological process. What do you make of this connection, or the passing of the God test?</p><p>**Robert Wright:** In other words, one of the grimmer readings on the Fermi paradox is the reason you don&#8217;t see many civilizations that have gotten to past the point we are is that typically when they get to this point where they have the capacity to blow themselves up, they blow themselves up. Now, I guess the good news, if you believe in Lee Smolin&#8217;s cosmological natural selection, and you believe in the subset of it, the particular variant of it that could explain why biological evolution would have a purpose, and in that variant intelligent life is conducive to the replication of the universe, right? Like, for example, suppose black holes are the portals of replication. Well, maybe if you reach superintelligence, you know how to create a ton of those. You create them, and so you wind up with more and more universes that do have the properties that led our universe to be conducive to life, whatever. So maybe even if there&#8217;s only one civilization that passes the Fermi test in our universe, it could still replicate prolifically. If you take consolation in that, you&#8217;re different from me, because it doesn&#8217;t help me a bit. If we are going to fail the Fermi— well, the God test, I guess I would call it, and we&#8217;re on that side of the Fermi paradox, I&#8217;m not happy about it, whatever happens to our universe.</p><p>## What would life look like if we can pass the God test?</p><p>**Brian Keating:** I feel too few people really take the question of God seriously. When I talk to people, they&#8217;re extremely dogmatic. And it seems to me you&#8217;re extremely, I won&#8217;t say ecumenical, but you have a very comprehensive and competent way of dealing with these incredibly important moral questions. And I think if we talk about relativity on your podcast, we have to talk about moral relativity.</p><p>But I want to kind of finish up with a question of what religion does give to us, which is, in a sense, a higher purpose, and perhaps an inspiration, a calling to be a better person, to be a better human being, a better husband in my case, a better son, father, whatever. That&#8217;s sort of a test. But you really don&#8217;t see much test in the— and I point out in my first book, *Losing the Nobel Prize*, that there&#8217;s really only two mitzvot, or commandments. We think of mitzvah as like, oh, it&#8217;s a good deed, but it&#8217;s really a commandment. Like, you either have to do it or you can&#8217;t do it, like thou shalt not kill. It&#8217;s not like it&#8217;s a nice thing not to kill. No, it&#8217;s a commandment, right? But there&#8217;s only one commandment in the Ten Commandments that has a reward, and that&#8217;s the fifth commandment: honor your father and your mother, so that your days will be long on the Earth. So you get a reward, which is pretty good, long life, or a life full of meaning or whatever. But there&#8217;s sort of a kind of a criteria, a rubric, but that&#8217;s the only one out of 613 different tests, right?</p><p>So I guess the question is, is the test for us to become better and then witness to what we can honestly become, or become builders? Or is it to be maximalists and do all that we can, because maybe there is no God in heaven, but maybe we&#8217;re kind of creating this god on Earth. Certainly it&#8217;s enhanced my life tremendously. I use it for religious purposes, to look at different things that I would never pull out myself. But what will be kind of the ultimate— I don&#8217;t want to say in an eschatological sense, but what will be the salvation, the promised land that Moses didn&#8217;t get to get into because he failed one test, at least, that God gave him? But tell me, what would life look like if we can pass the God test? If we can work together to become better, is it to become more moral, more moral animals, as you might say? What will you remain hopeful about?</p><p>**Robert Wright:** If you take seriously the possibility that this whole evolutionary process moves naturally toward a construction of a global brain, which would be to sustain the direction we&#8217;ve seen, right? First, you get cells, complex cells, multicellular organisms, societies of multicellular organisms. Then one of these organisms is smart enough to launch cultural evolution, and its social structures get bigger and more complex. And in this scenario, the construction of a cohesive kind of global brain, in some sense a global superorganism, is a sustaining of a direction we&#8217;ve seen from four billion years ago. If that happens, what could our role in it be? The doomers say it could be none. The machines are the global brain, and they&#8217;re having a great time, and they don&#8217;t need us. I would think if we pass the test, we indeed at a minimum manage to carve out a role for ourselves that is compatible with our own flourishing and our happiness.</p><p>But I would also say that when I say I think in a way this direction of technological evolution is pushing us toward enlightenment, I&#8217;m not using the word lightly. I mean, I&#8217;ve written about Eastern enlightenment. And in this book, I compare Eastern and Western conceptions of enlightenment and suggest they have more in common than we might think. But I do think if we get better at surmounting the kind of cognitive biases that I see as undergirding the psychology of tribalism, and convince all of us that our tribe is right and the other tribe is wrong, and I&#8217;m right in this latest marital dispute and my wife is wrong, and whatever. I think that is in a way its own reward, because I do think it&#8217;s closer to the objective truth. The truth is your tribe isn&#8217;t always right, and I&#8217;m not always right in these marital disputes. So you&#8217;re getting better at seeing the objective truth.</p><p>That&#8217;s a sense in which I think Eastern, Western enlightenment— the idea of the Western Enlightenment, science and reason, that was largely about the value of objective truth, right? And I&#8217;m saying that the kind of enlightenment I&#8217;m talking about, transcending your self-righteousness and your tribalistic perspective, is to approach objective truth more closely. And I know it sounds to some people like just woo-ish nonsense. I do think that&#8217;s where we need to head. And I would just say, in response to your question, it is to some extent its own reward. The brushes I&#8217;ve had with that, which, I&#8217;ve never approached true enlightenment, but like when I&#8217;ve finished a one-week meditation retreat and was less self-absorbed and better at seeing other perspectives, I was also happier and calmer. It was just better. And so I like to think that we&#8217;re being pushed in a direction that is conducive to our own happiness and to a closer approximation of the truth about things, in not exactly the scientific sense, but is compatible with that continued pursuit, because we&#8217;ll still be around to do the pursuit, with God&#8217;s help.</p><p>## Can I get an amen?</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Yeah. Can I get an amen? Or inshallah, as every tradition has a version of this. Bob, this has been a fascinating conversation. Congratulations on another smash contribution to the intellectual noosphere. I never thought I&#8217;d take that word seriously, but happily I found your book and [inaudible]. It was destiny that we would meet, and I look forward to what&#8217;s coming next. So tell people where they can find you on the podcastosphere and in the Twitterverse.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** Yeah, my newsletter and podcast are called Nonzero. My Twitter handle is @robertwrighter. Kind of a pun. And yeah, that&#8217;s kind of all you need to know. If you just want to check out chapter excerpts of the book, the way to do that is to go to thegodtest.net. There&#8217;s an excerpt from every chapter and the whole introductory chapter.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** I do want people to actually listen to the book. I have two, the paperback and the hardcover, which I took off the cover of for some reason. But the appendix itself is really, it&#8217;s the most listen-to-able, if that&#8217;s a word, appendix that&#8217;s technical. And your description of how training works, pre-training, RLHF, all these things, are some of the best I&#8217;ve had. I&#8217;ve had on all the top AI writers and even researchers, as you know, but your description is both quantitative and qualitative, and it&#8217;s just such a wonderful book. I hope people get it in all three formats and you get the royalties you deserve. And you have your Substack, which I enjoy as well. Robert, thank you so much. Bye-bye.</p><p>**Robert Wright:** Thank you. It was a great conversation. I really appreciate it. Super fun.</p><p>**Brian Keating:** Robert Wright thinks the real AI test is moral, not technical. If that changes how you think about P(doom), subscribe. Tell me in the comments: will a machine ever have a happy thought? And for the strongest case against the AI doomers, my conversation with Yann LeCun is right here. Don&#8217;t forget to like, comment, and subscribe. And I&#8217;ll see you next week on Into the Impossible.</p><p> </p>								</div>
				</div>
					</div>
				</div>
				</div>
		]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://briankeating.com/robert-wright-ai-alignment-is-a-moral-problem-not-a-technical-one/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
		<media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/As5goRNDJp4" medium="video" width="1280" height="720">
			<media:player url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/As5goRNDJp4" />
			<media:title type="plain">Can Humanity Pass the AI Alignment Test Before It’s Too Late?</media:title>
			<media:description type="html"><![CDATA[If nobody knows what&#039;s on the other side of the AI singularity, why are the optimists so sure it&#039;s great? Robert Wright&#039;s answer: they&#039;re running on faith.Tr...]]></media:description>
			<media:thumbnail url="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/maxresdefault-3.jpg" />
			<media:rating scheme="urn:simple">nonadult</media:rating>
		</media:content>
	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Former NASA Physicist: The UAP Maneuver That Should Have Exploded &#124; Kevin Knuth</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/former-nasa-physicist-the-uap-maneuver-that-should-have-exploded-kevin-knuth/</link>
					<comments>https://briankeating.com/former-nasa-physicist-the-uap-maneuver-that-should-have-exploded-kevin-knuth/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sabartigas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2026 00:57:09 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Transcripts]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://briankeating.com/?p=8857</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Former NASA Physicist: The UAP Maneuver That Should Have Exploded &#124; Kevin Knuth https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vumiiCdAv70 Transcripts: Brian KeatingWell, this is a two-part episode. we&#8217;re discussing today, fascinating lecture that summarizes a lot of the current cutting edge research and investigations that you&#8217;ve done as a physicist. And the reason that I&#8217;m having you on for this in a podcast as well is because I think you&#8217;re doing really important and heroic work in terms of bringing scientific rigor to this problem. And one of the problems that I see most and afflicting the UAP phenomenon is. Is that there are very few actual real scientists, professors. Yes, I&#8217;m sorry to be a gatekeeper, but but sometimes we need gatekeeping. You and I met through a a chat thread with about 300 other people, some accusing others of different nefarious things, and everyone saying that they have their own truth. Well, no, there&#8217;s there&#8217;s only one scientific truth. It&#8217;s our job to investigate it, interrogate nature. And you do that through the lens of a pr practicing professional scientist. And you&#8217;re also a professor. And these these things matter. Yes, it&#8217;s important to have other people and voices as well, but we need people from agencies, from industry, from the military, but we certainly do need from the professoriate. And that&#8217;s why I think it&#8217;s really important what you&#8217;re doing. So today you&#8217;re gonna describe the the research that you&#8217;ve gone into in terms of a presentation you made at a very important conference you gave over the summer, and you&#8217;re gracious enough to provide it here, and then we&#8217;re gonna have a lot nice long conversation. Depending on which order you&#8217;re watching this in, you may have already seen the conversation with Kevin on the Into the Impossible podcast. This shows you I&#8217;m dedicating two hours to this phenomenon because I think it&#8217;s so important, so pr and it&#8217;s so prescient that Kevin&#8217;s been involved in this, bringing scientific rigor, bringing academic rigor. We hear a lot about peer review is broken, science is broken, Fauci&#8217;s this, lockup string theorist. and you know, I&#8217;m guilty of some of it too. But but the reality is Kevin&#8217;s a working professor. you can check out his website. I&#8217;ll have all of his links below. And just really grateful for your presence today, Kevin. So if you wouldn&#8217;t mind, you could take us through this presentation. I might interrupt here and there, but just to ask clarifying questions that the audience might be interested and unable to ask at this point. Prof. Kevin KnuthAbsolutely and th thank you for the very very kind introduction. Yeah, I gave I gave this talk at the scientific coalition for UAP Studies meeting, the SCU meeting this last summer and in Toronto. And I think one of the there there&#8217;s a few things that co that characterize academic scientists and make them different than others and perhaps in this field more useful is we study things and we&#8217;re trained to study things and we&#8217;re trained to be skeptical and we&#8217;re I I I don&#8217;t know how many times I&#8217;m told by somebody, I&#8217;m skeptical. well I am too. I mean I&#8217;m I&#8217;m skeptical of my own ideas, and most people aren&#8217;t. And that that&#8217;s skeptics. Yeah, skepticism works both ways. You have to be able to catch mistakes. And the fastest way to catch mistakes is for you to catch them. and then and and then on in addition to that, physicists think about things differently than other people. And so I&#8217;m I can&#8217;t say that that&#8217;s the only good way to think about it. I know that it&#8217;s not, but Brian KeatingThat&#8217;s a sign of a good scientist. Yep, that&#8217;s a sign of a good scientist. Yep. Prof. Kevin KnuthPhysicists often bring a unique perspective that&#8217;s that you can&#8217;t get anywhere else. And so this talk is basically that. I&#8217;m asking the question how anomalous is anomalous, and when it comes to UAP, and I&#8217;m going to focus on energy and power. And I think the reasons for focusing on energy and power are that in some cases we can estimate the energies and powers involved in a sighting or an interaction with these objects. And very often th those energies or powers are as much, much greater than humans are capable of dealing with. And I think this is the real evidence that we have that we&#8217;re dealing with non-human tech in many of these cases. And it&#8217;s pretty and when I go through some of these cases, it&#8217;ll be pretty obvious that this cannot possibly be human technology. I know Lockheed Martin can do some pretty cool things, but Brian KeatingYeah. Prof. Kevin Knuththere&#8217;s a lot of things that they can&#8217;t do. Prof. Kevin KnuthSo I think it&#8217;s also difficult to for people to remember that UAP are a class of phenomena, not a single thing. There are very certainly different types of UAP. Not all of them are alien spacecraft. In fact, most of them probably aren&#8217;t. And in this slide, I actually show several pictures of UAPs. one of them is actually identified. and it&#8217;s the one here in the lower the lower left. Can you see my cursor moving? Okay. You can see this one in the lower left. Excuse me. when I first saw this image years ago, I got very excited because I had recognized several other images that looked similar. And I thought, wow, maybe it&#8217;s the same type of craft. And I Brian KeatingFine. Brian KeatingYeah, that&#8217;s perfect. Yeah. Brian KeatingMm. Prof. Kevin KnuthPulled all those images together and looked at them at the same time and realized, no, it&#8217;s it&#8217;s a bird. It&#8217;s a seagull. Which is precisely why the photographer didn&#8217;t notice it while he took the pictures, because he was taking a picture of the boats in the background that I have covered up with the text. that&#8217;s actually a seagull. I&#8217;m gonna try]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="8857" class="elementor elementor-8857">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-57608ae e-flex e-con-boxed wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no e-con e-parent" data-id="57608ae" data-element_type="container" data-e-type="container">
					<div class="e-con-inner">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-1a4033e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading" data-id="1a4033e" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="heading.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Former NASA Physicist: The UAP Maneuver That Should Have Exploded | Kevin Knuth</h2>				</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-84c2abc elementor-widget elementor-widget-video" data-id="84c2abc" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-settings="{&quot;youtube_url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=vumiiCdAv70&quot;,&quot;video_type&quot;:&quot;youtube&quot;,&quot;controls&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;}" data-widget_type="video.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
							<div class="elementor-wrapper elementor-open-inline">
			<div class="elementor-video"></div>		</div>
						</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-ad8fc5d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="ad8fc5d" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
									<h2><strong>Transcripts:</strong></h2><p>Brian Keating<br />Well, this is a two-part episode. we&#8217;re discussing today, fascinating lecture that summarizes a lot of the current cutting edge research and investigations that you&#8217;ve done as a physicist. And the reason that I&#8217;m having you on for this in a podcast as well is because I think you&#8217;re doing really important and heroic work in terms of bringing scientific rigor to this problem. And one of the problems that I see most and afflicting the UAP phenomenon is.</p><p>Is that there are very few actual real scientists, professors. Yes, I&#8217;m sorry to be a gatekeeper, but but sometimes we need gatekeeping. You and I met through a a chat thread with about 300 other people, some accusing others of different nefarious things, and everyone saying that they have their own truth. Well, no, there&#8217;s there&#8217;s only one scientific truth. It&#8217;s our job to investigate it, interrogate nature. And you do that through the lens of a pr practicing professional scientist.</p><p>And you&#8217;re also a professor. And these these things matter. Yes, it&#8217;s important to have other people and voices as well, but we need people from agencies, from industry, from the military, but we certainly do need from the professoriate. And that&#8217;s why I think it&#8217;s really important what you&#8217;re doing. So today you&#8217;re gonna describe the the research that you&#8217;ve gone into in terms of a presentation you made at a very important conference you gave over the summer, and you&#8217;re gracious enough to provide it here, and then we&#8217;re gonna have a lot nice long conversation.</p><p>Depending on which order you&#8217;re watching this in, you may have already seen the conversation with Kevin on the Into the Impossible podcast. This shows you I&#8217;m dedicating two hours to this phenomenon because I think it&#8217;s so important, so pr and it&#8217;s so prescient that Kevin&#8217;s been involved in this, bringing scientific rigor, bringing academic rigor. We hear a lot about peer review is broken, science is broken, Fauci&#8217;s this, lockup string theorist. and you know, I&#8217;m guilty of some of it too. But but the reality is Kevin&#8217;s a working professor.</p><p>you can check out his website. I&#8217;ll have all of his links below. And just really grateful for your presence today, Kevin. So if you wouldn&#8217;t mind, you could take us through this presentation. I might interrupt here and there, but just to ask clarifying questions that the audience might be interested and unable to ask at this point.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Absolutely and th thank you for the very very kind introduction. Yeah, I gave I gave this talk at the scientific coalition for UAP Studies meeting, the SCU meeting this last summer and in Toronto.</p><p>And I think one of the there there&#8217;s a few things that co that characterize academic scientists and make them different than others and perhaps in this field more useful is we study things and we&#8217;re trained to study things and we&#8217;re trained to be skeptical and we&#8217;re I I I don&#8217;t know how many times I&#8217;m told by somebody, I&#8217;m skeptical. well I am too. I mean I&#8217;m</p><p>I&#8217;m skeptical of my own ideas, and most people aren&#8217;t. And that that&#8217;s skeptics. Yeah, skepticism works both ways. You have to be able to catch mistakes. And the fastest way to catch mistakes is for you to catch them. and then and and then on in addition to that, physicists think about things differently than other people. And so I&#8217;m I can&#8217;t say that that&#8217;s the only good way to think about it. I know that it&#8217;s not, but</p><p>Brian Keating<br />That&#8217;s a sign of a good scientist. Yep, that&#8217;s a sign of a good scientist. Yep.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Physicists often bring a unique perspective that&#8217;s that you can&#8217;t get anywhere else. And so this talk is basically that. I&#8217;m asking the question how anomalous is anomalous, and when it comes to UAP, and I&#8217;m going to focus on energy and power. And I think the reasons for focusing on energy and power are that in some cases we can estimate the energies and powers involved in</p><p>a sighting or an interaction with these objects. And very often th those energies or powers are as much, much greater than humans are capable of dealing with. And I think this is the real evidence that we have that we&#8217;re dealing with non-human tech in many of these cases. And it&#8217;s pretty and when I go through some of these cases, it&#8217;ll be pretty obvious that this cannot possibly be human technology. I know Lockheed Martin can do some pretty cool things, but</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />there&#8217;s a lot of things that they can&#8217;t do.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />So I think it&#8217;s also difficult to for people to remember that UAP are a class of phenomena, not a single thing. There are very certainly different types of UAP. Not all of them are alien spacecraft. In fact, most of them probably aren&#8217;t. And in this slide, I actually show several pictures of UAPs.</p><p>one of them is actually identified. and it&#8217;s the one here in the lower the lower left. Can you see my cursor moving? Okay. You can see this one in the lower left. Excuse me. when I first saw this image years ago, I got very excited because I had recognized several other images that looked similar. And I thought, wow, maybe it&#8217;s the same type of craft. And I</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Fine.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah, that&#8217;s perfect. Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Pulled all those images together and looked at them at the same time and realized, no, it&#8217;s it&#8217;s a bird. It&#8217;s a seagull. Which is precisely why the photographer didn&#8217;t notice it while he took the pictures, because he was taking a picture of the boats in the background that I have covered up with the text. that&#8217;s actually a seagull. I&#8217;m gonna try to jump over to another set of slides and I can show you that. Oops, one second.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Right, can you see this new set? Alright. Alright, here we go. I&#8217;ll go to full screen mode here too. Alright, so this is from an earlier talk. This is the same picture and the person was taking a picture of the the ships here. I&#8217;ve cropped it a bit. we can zoom in and maybe still not obvious what it is. It&#8217;s not obvious until I do that. now it&#8217;s pretty obvious what this is. it&#8217;s a seagull and I don&#8217;t wanna</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah, I see it. Yep.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />I feel bad about raining on this guy&#8217;s parade of his cool UAP photo. But but it&#8217;s it&#8217;s that&#8217;s my job as a scientist. We&#8217;ve been ruining all the fun for what four hundred years now. So it&#8217;s so I I like I joke with people, I tell them I&#8217;m here to ruin the fun. And</p><p>And that&#8217;s really what we&#8217;ve been doing. It&#8217;s very funny. We I work very closely with Matthew Matthew Shadagas and Cecilia Levy, both professors at the University at Albany, and I work with them at U on you know under UAPX and our UAPX group. And we&#8217;ve looked at many cases at this point, looked at photographs. Matthew&#8217;s been analyzing materials, and we have discovered more.</p><p>As Matthew puts it, he puts it quite well. He&#8217;s looked at all sorts of materials, crash debris, right? And he says he&#8217;s discovered more earth dirt than he ever expected. And so, yeah, and of course no one&#8217;s happy to find out that their UFO debris is actually just earth dirt or airplane parts and which we have found. And but we&#8217;re here to figure out the truth. And that&#8217;s that&#8217;s another thing we academics are good at, getting at the truth.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />That&#8217;s right.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />So I&#8217;m going focus here first on speeds and accelerations. There are many cases where we can measure speeds and accelerations, and sometimes with radar. Hermann Oberth, this grumpy-looking gentleman here at the bottom of the picture, was a German father of modern rocketry. He was a the mentor to Werner von Braun, which is the guy just to the right. And Hermann Oberth.</p><p>gave a lecture on flying saucers in 1954. And he notes in the lecture their speed is sometimes very high. 19 kilometers a second has been measured with wireless measuring instruments, radar. This is 1954. Radar was new. so and then accelerations are so high that no man could stand it. This is no what comes up as an understatement actually it turns out he would be pressed to the wall and bruised. no they&#8217;d be turned into jelly in some cases.</p><p>the accuracy of such measurements has been doubted. If there would be only three or four measurements, I would not rely upon them and would wait for further measurements. But there is existing more than 50 such measurements, 50 radar measurements of UAP, existing in 1954. And the wireless sets of the American Air Force and Navy, which are used in all fighters, cannot be so inaccurate that the information obtained with them can be doubted completely.</p><p>So I find this presentation, while he doesn&#8217;t actually provide us with that radar evidence, he clearly notes it. 19 kilometers a second is extremely fast. That&#8217;s about 42,000 miles an hour. That&#8217;s approximately the speed of the New Horizons probe, which is currently flying through the Kuiper belt and the outer solar system. it flew past Pluto in 2015. So so these things</p><p>are flying have been measured to fly at spacecraft speeds. And this has been known since nineteen fifty four. And I think this is a big deal. And</p><p>Brian Keating<br />I think.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />So where are these 50 radar measurements? and how how is it that we&#8217;re still going back to saying, well, what about the Russians and the Chinese? Well, these things weren&#8217;t Russian and Chinese back in 1954, that&#8217;s for sure. They weren&#8217;t American either. 1954 the the air speed record was something like seven hundred and sixty miles an hour. So you&#8217;re looking at a huge difference in speeds.</p><p>And he told people about this back in 1954, and I like to say this is why he&#8217;s so grumpy because nobody&#8217;s listening to him or paying any attention. it&#8217;s pretty obvious what the situation is. Excuse me. the Numitz case was an excellent case in which one can estimate speeds and accelerations. There&#8217;s three events that allow you to do that. this one gives you the greatest acceleration. This is when Kevin Day</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Okay.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />reported that he recorded on radar that these objects were dropping from twenty eight thousand feet to sea level in point seven eight seconds.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />So now you can estimate this acceleration. It comes out to something like 5,400 G&#8217;s. This is the distribution of probability distributions of acceleration. So how far off can you be? Well, it isn&#8217;t less than 3,000 G&#8217;s, and it certainly probably isn&#8217;t much more than 10,000 Gs, but it&#8217;s somewhere in between. and most probably around 5,500 Gs. So we can estimate the</p><p>We know it&#8217;s acceleration. five thousand G&#8217;s is you&#8217;re not going to be just pressed against the wall and bruised. Somebody who weighs a hundred pounds normally under five thousand Gs is going to weigh five thousand what fifty thousand wait, no, five hundred thousand. They&#8217;d weigh five hundred thousand pounds. Yeah, under that acceleration. So</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Half a million.</p><p>I yeah, it happened. Yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />500,000, your body weighing five hundred thousand pounds, you&#8217;re you&#8217;re gonna just turn into soup at the bottom of the at the on the floor. we can try to estimate the power involved in its maneuver, assuming that it accelerated halfway and then decelerated the other half to stop moving at zero feet at at sea level. And if you use that acceleration where it accelerates at 5,400 G&#8217;s halfway and then decelerates the other half.</p><p>you can try to estimate its power, but you need to know its mass. We don&#8217;t know its mass. We know its approximate size. David Fraver described it as being about the size of an F-18. And so what I did here is I just took one tenth of the mass of an F eighteen. So let&#8217;s say it&#8217;s one tenth as light as to only to weighs ten percent of the weight of an F-18. So it&#8217;s weighs so I&#8217;m trying to low I&#8217;m trying to lowball it here in a reasonable way.</p><p>And if we do that and calculate the power, this is a graph of the power over time for the required for this maneuver, the maximum power needed is eleven hundred gigawatts.</p><p>And that&#8217;s really, really a lot of power. this is more than ten times the total nuclear power output of the United States.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Now Kevin, before we go on, you know, I&#8217;m a physicist that studies I study the cosmic microwave background, which was pioneered by Bob Dickey at at MIT Rad Labs and then later at Princeton University, and his colleague is his fellow professor there was David Wilkinson, who is my grand advisor. and so</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Yeah. Excuse me.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />I&#8217;m very conversant with the radar technology and and so forth. And I&#8217;m also a pilot, a pr you private pilot, although I do have a jet type rating in several classes of jets and commercial pilot, instrument pilot, etc. Now I&#8217;m not anywhere near the courage, you know. I said David Fravor has more courage in his left cuticle than I have in my whole body. You know, I couldn&#8217;t get into the military, let alone be as good a pilot as he is. I&#8217;ll stipulate that all</p><p>But I know a lot about radar and I know a lot about microwave energy and returns. so in order for this to be true, the returns are matter matter much more to me than than even Fravor, as great as an eyewitness he may be, and and and that I&#8217;ll stipulate, even though I have counterexamples that I can present later. But for radar to return, it has to reflect off something. So that can be any form of dielectric, it could be anything with you know relatively large or small cross section.</p><p>You&#8217;re assuming, you know, that it&#8217;s actually smaller than the visible, visible cross section of the same encounter by a factor of, you know, 10 or something like that, which which I think is more than fair because you&#8217;re trying to get, you know, a lower limit. You know, you&#8217;re trying to have some credulity in this and and not go to the extremes. But for this to simultaneously reflect and also be visible in the visible light spectrum and reflect it, that puts a bound on the dielectric constants that are permissible. And I&#8217;m wondering if, you know, we don&#8217;t know what it was made of.</p><p>But we certainly know that any material object that will make that return will have these ancillary characteristics, sonic booms, you know, extreme thermal heating. I mean, 10x, you know, the nuclear reactor output is is not insubstantial. So how do you rectify that as a scientist? How do you, you know, square the circle that this can&#8217;t be something, you know, some unknown material? It can&#8217;t be it can&#8217;t be a materials problem. It has to be reflective and it has to be reflective.</p><p>in the visible and in the in the millimeter wave or or microwave. How do you how do you reconcile those facts?</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />I I haven&#8217;t thought about the radar return problem. and I haven&#8217;t thought about it that way in being able to say something about the dielectric constants of the hull of the object or the the the surface. So that&#8217;s that&#8217;s that&#8217;s an interesting question. That&#8217;s something I hadn&#8217;t even considered.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Is it?</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Okay. All right. Maybe something we can work on together at some point. so go on, Kevin. Yeah, I didn&#8217;t want to derail you but I you know.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Yeah, no, and and with regard to the power output, yeah, ten times the total nuclear out power output of the United States, that&#8217;s shocking. I mean the pr ser here&#8217;s the real problem, and this is gonna come up again when I talk about luminosities, which are also incredibly high. But you&#8217;re you&#8217;re talking about one thousand gigawatts of power, right? And no engineering no engineered object is a hundred percent efficient.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Right. So let&#8217;s say, I mean, the things we make are usually at best, at best, you&#8217;re looking at 30% efficient for a machinery, right? And and so let&#8217;s say that these guys are really good at what they do, and it&#8217;s they can get it down to you know an efficiency of ninety-nine point nine percent efficient, right? So you&#8217;ve only got a point one percent inefficiency.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Let&#8217;s say they&#8217;re really very, very good. Even if you have a 0.1% inefficiency, that means that 0.1% of a thousand gigawatts is going to be leaking out in waste heat. That means a gigawatt of power in waste heat you&#8217;d have to deal with. That would melt any craft in a very short order. clearly.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />something strange is going on. we&#8217;re we&#8217;re missing something. And it&#8217;s not quite clear what exactly what that is. and, you know, is could it be that these are not moving the way we think they&#8217;re moving? are they, you know, peep of course we have ideas about space-time warping and, you know, these are rather far out ideas that we don&#8217;t actually have a lot of evidence for. But it&#8217;s hard to reconcile the</p><p>these high Gs and having the any machinery or living being beings on top of it being able to survive accelerations like that. That&#8217;s a whole different problem. and then there&#8217;s other questions that the physicist comes up with. I mean that things that bother you. So this thing accelerates to so the thing accelerates to about forty thousand miles an hour at the midpoint and then decelerates to zero. Where did that energy go when it decelerated?</p><p>Brian Keating<br />That&#8217;s right.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Energy doesn&#8217;t disappear. You&#8217;ve gotta when this thing comes to a stop, that energy had to go somewhere. And you know, this power is correct. There should have been about two an explosion, about two hundred and fifty tomahawk cruise missiles worth of of explosion when the thing just stopped. that should have been catastrophic and wasn&#8217;t, right? so these things don&#8217;t make sonic booms. They don&#8217;t we have a lot of I I</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Right.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />I try to think about this as a detective. We have a lot of clues, but they&#8217;re not fitting together very well. It&#8217;s very odd. so this this isn&#8217;t this isn&#8217;t normal technology, clearly. And the but I think the power alone makes it clear that this is not human tech if if what&#8217;s going on what we think is going on.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Right.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />If it&#8217;s yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />So this is one example. We have another example where we have radar data. This is from the Japanese airlines case in 1986, where you&#8217;ve had a Japanese cargo plane 747 was flying from Tokyo, or it was it was actually going from Paris to Tokyo. I have that backwards. It was going from Paris to Tokyo when it encountered several UFOs over Alaska.</p><p>And and the the event culminated with a large UFO that was shaped like a walnut. There&#8217;s a drawing on the right here from the pilot. that and the pilot estimated to be about this size of four seven forty sevens. so this thing&#8217;s about the size of an aircraft carrier. when the pilot had said when it was in front of the plane, that was all he could see out the windscreen.</p><p>how wrong can a pilot be about this, right? So so the object&#8217;s there. I think that&#8217;s pretty clear. And it followed him for forty five minutes. They had military height finding radar had detected this and was was collected by the FAA and the FAA chief for ad accidents and investigations, John Callahan, actually made copies of the radar data</p><p>And kept them in a box under his desk until he retired, at which point he made them public. But he kept copies because President Reagan&#8217;s science team came and took all the data. They confiscated it. So he actually released the copies publicly. let&#8217;s see, and Dr. Daniel Kumbay, who was who was at the Niels Bohr Institute for some time, had analyzed this radar data and</p><p>looked at the acceleration made by several jumps is the so this ufo basically stayed about seven kilometers away from the airplane and just with every sweep of the it basically moved around the plane and with every sweep of the radar it would be on one side of the plane and then the next sweep of the radar would be at the other side of the plane. So you can estimate the minimum accelerations here. And you can see here on this table they&#8217;ve got the 11 jumps</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />the accelerations you&#8217;re looking at there are several three cases where the acceleration&#8217;s coming up on ten thousand G&#8217;s.</p><p>Which is really, really insane, right? You&#8217;ve got something the size of an aircraft carrier accelerating at ten thousand Gs. The maximum speeds here, you&#8217;re if you were the maximum speed would be th Mach 350. And that&#8217;s basically close to two thousand or two hundred and sixty-nine thousand miles an hour. at that speed you can get to the moon in fifty-three minutes.</p><p>So if this is gonna be a two hour podcast and all, we could have left for the moon on this craft and gotten there and come right back in the amount of time that it&#8217;ll take you to watch this two hour podcast.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />So two questions before just continuing. So one is there are error bars here, which is very rare in this pseudo industry or you know, kind of this this t field of study, you know, that you have error bars. Exactly. And that&#8217;s why and that&#8217;s why we need more. I mean, I hear a lot of things about well b NASA suppressing this and and astronomer, you know, my friend Sarah Scholes wrote a book that, you know, they&#8217;re already here about, you know.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Right. Well that&#8217;s what happens when you get scientists involved. Academic scientists involved. Yep.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />sightings and so forth and she she just estimated, you know, how much time do astronomers like me and and my colleagues spend looking at all domains from ra longest wave radio waves to you know gamma rays in space? How much time are we observing, you know, so many staradians on the sky? And it&#8217;s a huge amount. And for for a UFO enthusiast, you know, to kind of besmirch a scientist and say that like, you&#8217;re just paid off by NASA. I mean, I I work for NASA once, you work for NASA.</p><p>But I think it&#8217;s more you&#8217;re I know exactly, right? I mean it never ha I was like, you know, are you getting paid by you know Galileo Project? Nope, you&#8217;re not getting any, you&#8217;re not getting a dime from it, as far as I understand. So this is a canard. I think that people are sloppy thinkers that are true believers, they do their cause a disservice because they don&#8217;t include error bars. An error bar, I always tell my students, Kevin, I know you teach a lot about Bayesian statistics. I&#8217;ve gone through your lecturing, you&#8217;re an award winning lecturer.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />I would love to be paid off by now. I would love somebody, anybody to pay me off would be great. We don&#8217;t get paid a lot as academic scientists.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />I&#8217;ve gone through your lectures. I&#8217;ve watched them. You know, my my take is that I don&#8217;t care if you get the answer right. Like I don&#8217;t care if you get the central value. You know, you measure G and you get it nine point eight meters per second squared, but you don&#8217;t tell me that your error bar is a hundred meters per second squared, plus or minus, you know, on the plus side and minus ten meters per. That&#8217;s my problem with the Drake equation. It&#8217;s always presented as a equation for a number as if that&#8217;s what we do. No, no.</p><p>The sign of a good scientist is what error bar he or she can assign to it and the breakdown in that error in terms of systematic and statistical errors. My first question is what are those errors? Are they statistical? Are they systematic? And my second question is, this thing was flying at, you know, for for an hour at at 747 speeds, call it 500 miles an hour, pretty much. Let&#8217;s round up, round numbers. And so this thing was tracked over what? I mean, Alaska is not that big. So, you know, how are they tracking this thing for that long?</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Getting this data and and what to w what can we ascribe these errors bars to first?</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Right. Well when you calculate errors like this, but st what you&#8217;re doing is you are characterizing the</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />You c you can&#8217;t you can&#8217;t actually estimate systematic error because you would need to know what the true value is to estimate that, right? You&#8217;d have to have some handle on what the true value is. So you can never really estimate a systematic error. so what you&#8217;re doing is you&#8217;re basically looking at the error of the you&#8217;re you&#8217;re basically kind you&#8217;re calculating a probability distribution of the acceleration.</p><p>Which is what I showed on this previous slide. This is actually what this is giving you. this was done by sampling, which is why it&#8217;s fuzzy. But this is the probability distribution for the acceleration. That&#8217;s that&#8217;s the answer that Bayesian statistics would give you, right? And and I can report, you know. So what do you want to report? Well, I can report the the mode, the peak. I can find the peak. I should fit this to a curve and I found the peak. I can report the mode, I can report the the mean.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />So I can calculate the average value, which is not going to be quite at the same place that the mode is. so you could so you actually have multiple numbers you can report. And then you have your uncertainties, which you can estimate another way. And uncertainty is a way of estimating the width of the distribution. So what&#8217;s typically done is once you find the mode, you you know where the mode is the peak. Once you know where the peak is, you can then</p><p>You can look at the curvature of the peak, and basically you&#8217;re fitting a Gaussian distribution to this, and that and you take the the standard deviation of that Gaussian distribution, fit to the peak, you use that as the measure of the width of this distribution. Now in this case, it&#8217;s asymmetric, it&#8217;s clearly an asymmetric distribution. So what I did is I I actually fit a one Gaussian to the left side and a second Gaussian to the right side, and then I used the</p><p>the standard deviation of the each Gaussian is the plus or minus. So it has a different plus or minus, whether you&#8217;re on the plus side or the le or the minus side. And that&#8217;s basically what&#8217;s happening here with the with the accelerations. So your so that so conceptually what the uncertainty is telling you is it gives you the an idea of the precision of your estimation procedure.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yes.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />And that&#8217;s really what the uncertainty means. And that&#8217;s what the uncertainties in pretty much any scientific calculation actually give you. You can&#8217;t you can&#8217;t easily estimate uncertainty and any any kind of bias unless you know what that bias is.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />And and and the uncertainties are important because it tells you how well you know the answer, right? Right. So when you when I s when when I get as an answer this distribution, I tell you 5400 Gs. I don&#8217;t know that it&#8217;s exactly 5400 Gs, it&#8217;s probably somewhere in here. And that&#8217;s what that uncertainty tells you. And I didn&#8217;t list the uncertainty on this slide because it just will make it more busy than it already is.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Right.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />but in the research paper that you can find online I have the uncertainties listed there.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Got it. Okay. Yep. So let&#8217;s go on.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Yeah. And in fact, when I worked at NASA, I tell I tell my students, you have to be willing to learn new things when you&#8217;re actually working as a scientist. And you know, because many times students, especially when they get into graduate school, they think, Well, I&#8217;m all done taking classes, I don&#8217;t have to learn anything else. I&#8217;m like, no, that&#8217;s actually not true. you&#8217;ve got it backwards exactly.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />That&#8217;s backwards,</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />And when I worked at NASA, we were it was the early 2000s and and NASA was producing information about climate change and Congress came back and said they pushed back and said, Look, what is your what are your uncertainties about? How certain are you about these results? And NASA needed to go back and redo some of the work to produce those uncertainties. And and so I actually got</p><p>Called into my boss&#8217;s office and they said, Kevin, we have to do some work on estimating uncertainties for climate change. And you&#8217;re one of the only experts we have in this department that can calculate those uncertainties. So I need you to work on climate problems. And I was like,</p><p>Wait a I do astrophysics, I&#8217;m not a climate scientist. Like and I and I told myself, but I&#8217;m not a climate scientist. I don&#8217;t know anything about climate. He goes, Yeah, that&#8217;s why you&#8217;re going to learn. He goes, We&#8217;re going to send you to NASA Gis in New York City and you&#8217;re going to train with them for six months and and like you&#8217;re yep, I&#8217;m gonna learn for the whole you know, for the whole next two years about climate, earth planet climates and this so yeah, that happens and you have to you have to do it and</p><p>Brian Keating<br />That&#8217;s right, yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />That&#8217;s how you&#8217;re that&#8217;s how you become successful.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />And so what did I do that night? I panicked. I went to the bookstore to find a book on atmospheres or climate or something and I was poking around and the most useful book I found was my little golden book on clouds and it was through cloud types and I just bought it. I thought I don&#8217;t even know what kinds of clouds there are. So I should maybe learn this first. So I so it was a it was literally a kid&#8217;s book. I thought I&#8217;m gonna start with the kids&#8217; book tonight. We&#8217;ll build up.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Okay.</p><p>Yeah.</p><p>Okay, great.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Alright, so yes, so so these accelerations are insane. And what can you do with these accelerations? What if this is actually a spacecraft? I mentioned here you can get to the moon in 53 minutes. What if you were traveling further? So now and I make this point in the paper. Not only do these objects have flight characteristics necessary for interstravel tell interstellar travel, excuse me, they would make excellent interstellar craft.</p><p>So a 1000 G acceleration, one fifth of the one fifth of what the Nimitz case was observed doing, and one tenth of the acceleration that was observed in JAL, you can get to ninety percent the speed of light in about seventeen hours.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Fifty years, dark men are explained like</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm. Mm-hmm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Once you&#8217;re going 90% the speed of light, you relativity kicks in. Time slows down, distances change. you can actually travel much, much further. So yeah, so if if these objects can sustain an acceleration in space, a 1000 G acceleration will get you to 30% the speed of light in 2.7 hours. how far could you go? Well, here&#8217;s some examples. The the the nimits</p><p>Brian Keating<br />yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Tic Tacs could get to the nearest star, Proxima Centauri, in less than one and a half days. It&#8217;s a day trip. and actually could make it to out to Zeta Reticulli, which is in Trappus I, which are about forty light years away, in less than two days. yeah, this is the amount of time it&#8217;ll take you to drive from New York to Florida. you could get to the nearest stars, right, within forty light years, and there&#8217;s what?</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />There&#8217;s probably 80 some like stars in the forty light year range. I don&#8217;t know the exact number.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah, a lot. Yeah, mu way more than I think thousand, forty light year radius, yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Yeah, it&#8217;s it&#8217;s right. So and those were just I I I think I was just thinking about sun like stars. So you&#8217;ve got red red dwarves, which are gun Trappus one is a red dwarf goes around a red dwarf star, so there&#8217;s plenty of plenty of places to go. Yeah, so these craft now now granted, and you&#8217;ll hear you&#8217;ll hear scientists say this all the time when they complain about interstellar travel, they say, it</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Sunlike stars, yeah, yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />That&#8217;s right.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Even if you can go fast, it&#8217;ll still take you, you know, forty years to get to Zeta reticuli. Well, it&#8217;ll take you forty years in the frame of the galaxy. For everybody in the galaxy, it takes forty years. For the traveler, it takes less than two days. And there&#8217;s a time difference and just cause time slows down. Now what that means is that you can&#8217;t you can&#8217;t fly from Zeta reticuli to the sun.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />That&#8217;s right.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />hang out for an afternoon and then fly back to Zeta Reticuli and make it home for dinner. you&#8217;ll for you it&#8217;ll be a four day trip. for everybody on Zeta Reticuli or Earth it&#8217;ll be an eighty year trip. Right. So so this is what makes this is what makes interstellar travel hard, not the fact that you can do it. Do you want to is the question. And actually I gave a talk at SCU, one of the first SCU meetings where I</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm. Yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />I noted that if you actually had a nomadic society, so that you had a society that lived on their spaceships, didn&#8217;t live on a planet, they lived on spaceships, they then could do this easily because you would just meet up. So so you and I will meet up on Earth. I&#8217;ll go visit Zeta Reticula. You want to go to Trappist One, we take off and go there and then say we&#8217;ll meet back in two weeks. We come back two weeks later, and it&#8217;s</p><p>literally eighty weeks later on Earth, but for us it&#8217;s only two weeks later. that&#8217;s that&#8217;s how you could do it.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />And and there are not as many nomadic societies on Earth now as there used to be, but there still are nomadic societies. in sp in fact in Southeast Asia, there&#8217;s a society that lives they live entirely on their boats, and that&#8217;s what they do. All right, so transmedium travel and unidentified submerged objects. So we&#8217;ll now look at another class.</p><p>Another set of data. So I&#8217;ve looked at these accelerations. These are much higher than humans could could make. You already saw that this little Tic Tac, a thousand kilogram tic-tac would in doing its 5000 G maneuver would put out would require a thousand gigawatts. I I can&#8217;t even guess what an aircraft carrier sized craft would require to do a 10,000 G acceleration.</p><p>you&#8217;re looking at something way, way orders of magnitude beyond that.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />And now let&#8217;s see here, something has happened. There we go. All right, so underwater objects. this is a this is the Aguadilla object.</p><p>And and Doug Bettner gave a talk at SCU and argued that that a lot of the strangeness of this object was actually due to the fact that you had a lot of video compression going on. And so so this may not be the this isn&#8217;t my good power example. It was just an example of transmedium travel. UFOs have been observed going from air into water and from water into air pretty seamlessly. And</p><p>Humans can&#8217;t do that very well. The one of the craft that we have that does this is a is a a seaplane. A seaplane, I love that example, because a seaplane is neither a good plane nor a good boat. So so it&#8217;s the worst of all worlds, but it can do both. And that&#8217;s that&#8217;s where we&#8217;re at. now of course there&#8217;s new drones that can probably go in and out of water more easily. I&#8217;m sure we&#8217;re working on things like this.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />That&#8217;s right. The worst of all worlds, right?</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Trons, yeah.</p><p>That&#8217;s right.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />The one encounter that I find fascinating is from February of nineteen eighty-seven, where the New Zealand frigate, the HMNZS Southland, was involved in daily echo exercises from November to February, where they were basically trying to lure USOs in from the Pacific Ocean into the Haraki Gulf.</p><p>So they basically would go out into the go out north out of Auckland through the Heraki Gulf, out into the Pacific Ocean, then turn around and come back and watch on their sonar to see if they&#8217;re followed, and then try to study these objects. in February of 1987, they were followed by a large underwater object, which they measured to be 150 feet wide and 800 feet long. This is 30% longer than the typhoon class submarine, which is the</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Largest submarine in the world, the Russian typhoon class. it and they noted that they did not detect propeller wash on any of these objects. So they couldn&#8217;t identify whether they were Russian or American, if they were submarines. they weren&#8217;t typical submarines, there was no propeller wash. it does not escape me that the movie Hunt for Red October came out the same year, basically. And</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />And I know about this, and and and then that&#8217;s an interesting fact. But so they were followed by this USO for some time. They tried to shake it, and at at one point the USO was twenty two point five kilometers away, and they were trying to shake this, and it closed the distance in about three seconds. So this underwater object accelerated to the ship.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />passed under the ship in about three seconds and and actually took all the power out on the ship. the power went out on the ship, drained the batteries so they couldn&#8217;t restart the engines and they were adrift and had to be rescued. they had so you can do this calculation, this rough calculation. It closed a 2.5 kilometer distance in about three seconds, so you get a minimum speed of 1800 miles an hour.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Or if it you have it accelerating, it would have a minimum acceleration of five 57 G&#8217;s with a top speed of 37,000 mile 3700 miles an hour. So this is a really interesting case. And in fact, I was on a Zoom call with David Barnett last night. We talked we talked for almost two and a half hours. I was really grateful for his time going over the go of the time. I actually have a printout of the</p><p>raw sonar data. The raw sonar the basically the the this there&#8217;s a stylus that was moving across a sheet of paper as the paper&#8217;s printing showing the the actual sonar returns. So I actually have a have a scan of that. Sadly it is</p><p>That sheet of paper is 40 years old at this point and has faded a great deal because the stylus was actually burning into the paper and it&#8217;s not a very powerful burn, so it&#8217;s all very faint. And I&#8217;m not sure I can actually pull the speeds and accelerations out of it for out of that sonar data yet. But we were talking last night about how to go about doing that.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Now it&#8217;s amazing is since then, and since since I first noted this, I first talked about this case in the Seoul meeting in 2023. And since then a number of people have tried to get information about the Southlands activities in November through February of n eighty six, eighty-seven. and it&#8217;s all classified. their activities are classified.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />But people have learned other things. There were other ships involved. the there was an Australian ship that was there. And and I don&#8217;t have my notes with me. My notes are in the other room because I just learned this all last night and I haven&#8217;t transcribed them yet. But but the Australian ship traveled with them for some time and then l left and then disappeared, dropped out of communication, just before this event happened.</p><p>And they dropped out of communication and then put out a distress call and they had had some kind of encounter and had to they made it back to Sydney and then had to go in for refitting. and and then there was also an American aircraft carrier involved that the Americans the American records say that it was that it was Doctor Alameda, California. but</p><p>No, it was not. It was actually out in the Pacific Ocean in the same area. So what they were doing is they were they were going out north of Auckland over along the Kermetic Trench. So the Kermetic Trench is a very long trench that goes from it&#8217;s an undersea subduction zone. The trench goes from the north, northern part of New Zealand all the way up to Tonga. And</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />at at its deepest it&#8217;s 33,000 feet deep. So so there was a lot going on. And then there was also another New Zealand ship involved that the HMNZS IIE and I think that was the one that was fitted with the the at the time modern British toll ray sonar and they were actually mapping areas of the trench. So this</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Hmm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />apparently was an activity to study these USOs or these underwater objects. that was a collaboration between the New Zealanders, the Australians, and the Americans. and a lot of this is classified. One of the I he showed me a screenshot, one of the records from what the HMNZS Southland was doing is was classified for 75 years. You&#8217;re not getting that data, we&#8217;re not getting that</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah, that&#8217;s</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />File until 2062 or something crazy like that. It&#8217;s worse than the Kennedy assassination. What are they doing in the Kermetic trench? It&#8217;s a good question. All right, so so let&#8217;s go back to the points of energy and power, right? So we&#8217;ve got speeds and accelerations. So how how do you move at 3,700 miles an hour underwater? And and this isn&#8217;t a small object. Basically, you&#8217;ve got</p><p>Brian Keating<br />It&#8217;s like worse than the Kennedy assassination or the</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />This object has got to push a cylinder of water out of the way, right? and this this is a what 2.5 kilometers. That&#8217;s a mile, a mile-long cylinder of water with 150-foot diameter has to be pushed out of the way. Now, water is not compressible. Anybody who&#8217;s done a belly flop off of a low dive or high dive knows this. water is not compressible. You can&#8217;t compress it. So you have to lift up the water, right?</p><p>Brian Keating<br />So this is not Yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />You have to lift up the water. So you can estimate how the now you can estimate the power, the amount of energy it takes. Because they&#8217;ve got to basically lift up a one mile long column of water. You&#8217;ve got to lift it up about 150 feet, right? In what was it? How many seconds? It was what 30 seconds, right? So now we can calculate the amount of power here. I actually work out this calculation. So how much mass was involved?</p><p>Brian Keating<br />It&#8217;s thirty seconds, yeah, yeah.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Well how first first let&#8217;s figure out the mass of the object and mass of the object. I don&#8217;t know the mass of the object, but it&#8217;s underwater, so it has to at least have the mass of the water. It&#8217;s at least as dense as the water. If it wasn&#8217;t as dense as the water, it would be floating. So as a lower limit, you can figure out the the size of the object and because they know it was 150 foot.</p><p>In diameter and 800 feet long. So you&#8217;ve got a mass of about four times 10 to the eighth kilograms. this thing had to accelerate, so you can figure out the power from its motion. That&#8217;s going to be the the mass times the acceleration squared times the time. That&#8217;s how I&#8217;ll calculate that. And then now it also has to lift up a one mile-long column of water, and you have to do this in 30 seconds. So this is basically the calculation for that.</p><p>Now we can look at the amount of power it takes for this to happen. As it&#8217;s speeding up, it&#8217;s doing more it&#8217;s taking more power. So you&#8217;re you know the top power is you&#8217;re looking at something like something on the order of ten to the eighth megawatts. let&#8217;s see, is that right or is that</p><p>Let me go back. I&#8217;m worried that I have messed up the units on my</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />I may have messed up the units on my chart here because I&#8217;m thinking if it&#8217;s if this is ten to the eighth megawatts, ten to the eighth megawatts is ten to the fourteen, which is more than insane. So so I&#8217;ve got to double check that. But you can you can do the math here. How&#8217;s that for that? So you&#8217;re dealing with you&#8217;re you&#8217;re dealing again with megawatts, you know, many, many megawatts of power.</p><p>w to be able to pull this off. You&#8217;ve got to take power to move the move the object and you&#8217;ve got to displace the water. insane amount of power. So what other evidence do we have? We have luminosities. Some of these things are really crazy bright. This is one thing that one of the many things that s Steven Spielberg got writing Close Encounters of the Third Kind. Yes, people get sunburnt from these things. That happens.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Right.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />So some of them are extremely luminous, and so much so that the photographs are difficult to interpret. So these are all photographs of UFOs where they&#8217;re just glowing in white. They&#8217;re very, very bright. The this image here taken in 1956 over the Canadian Rockies in Alberta. we can Bruce Maccabe and Jacques Villet actually had access to the actual film.</p><p>And counted silver grains to basically figure out how much and what the intensity of light was hitting the camera. So you can actually yeah, so Dr. Bruce Maccabee did study this and Jacques Vallet is also summarized and reported. So you can look at the radiance of the object and and how that&#8217;s going to relate to camera parameters and</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Wow.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Basically, they measure the exposure levels and the shutter times and estimated the radiance to be this much. So it&#8217;s yeah, well, there&#8217;s interesting units there. Luminosity units are hard anyway, or radiance units two watts per stair radium centimeters squared, right? for so for an isotropic source. So if what do you mean by isotropic? If this thing is radiating uniformly in all directions, then the distance</p><p>For the distance between the plane and the object, which was estimated to be between six and twenty kilometers, you&#8217;re looking at a power of two thousand five hundred to thirty thousand megawatts.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />That&#8217;s a lot of light. That&#8217;s a crazy amount of light. And I have a bit of a problem with that because if it&#8217;s putting out that much light and it&#8217;s close to the clouds, the clouds should be illuminated pretty much as much as the sun is illuminating them. So so I then thought, well, let&#8217;s redo the calculation, assuming that it&#8217;s a directed light. So it&#8217;s shining a light on the airplanes.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Yeah, that&#8217;s weird.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />And if you do this, you come down to a lesser power of 1.7 kilowatts. That&#8217;s not as shocking, but it&#8217;s still a a kilowatt of light is a lot of light. And and that&#8217;s pretty amazing. Now</p><p>Jacques Villet, Luc Denis, and Jeffrey Mystery Meschersky had published a paper in Progress in Aerospace Sciences last year where they estimated the radiative energy in ground level observations based on bark being burnt. So this is the Hainesville, Louisiana case where an physicist actually was driving with his family and they witnessed a pulsating light in the forest.</p><p>Which started as a red orange glow and became a brilliant white flash, illuminating the whole woods, and it drowned out the headlights. And what the</p><p>Th what the Professor Galloway noted is when it drowned out the headlights, he he knew the amount of power in the headlights and he was able to estimate that the light coming from this thing in the forest was had to be megawatts of power. And that worried him. He actually s turned the car around and went the other way when drove away from it, which is probably a smart idea.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Uh-huh.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />so the object itself wasn&#8217;t seen. they were able to locate where it had that it had landed. It had landed in a clearing in the forest, and the trees around the clearing were all scorched from the from the light from this object. And so</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />So this was actually described in the Condon report. And the Condon report actually recalculated some of these power and actually had a higher po amount of power. they did not have a good explanation for what happened and they left it as an uncertain event. when yeah, no, when Jacques Villet and Luc Denis and Ms. Jeffrey Mistherski looked at this, they were able to get power estimates closer to</p><p>closer to five hundred megawatts of light. So that&#8217;s a again, a crazy amount of light. humans don&#8217;t make things that that&#8217;s a nuclear power plant&#8217;s worth of light, right? So so this is not a human made object.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Mm. Mm-hmm.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />So Kevin, we&#8217;re I don&#8217;t wanna go past the half hour, but we haven&#8217;t done the podcast yet. Yeah, okay, great. Yeah, let&#8217;s finish this up and then switch to the podcast. Yeah. Go for it.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />right. I&#8217;m basically on my conclusion slide. I think this will we&#8217;re I think we&#8217;re good.</p><p>Yeah, so so the minimal power estimates, estimates that we&#8217;re making here and basically in s in radar recorded maneuvers, sonar recorded maneuvers greatly exceed the power produced by nuclear power plants. And the minimal power estimates in the luminosity alone are on the order of nuclear power plants. So I think this is this to me is the strongest evidence that we have that we&#8217;re</p><p>not dealing with human technology.</p><p>humans don&#8217;t make vehicles that have the amount of that exhibit the amount of power of a nuclear power plant. It just doesn&#8217;t happen. it&#8217;s dangerous. It would be dangerous for us to do that. and it could be catastrophic. and and in fact, it here is an interesting point. It suggests I mentioned this earlier, it&#8217;s suggests an exceptional engineering since if even if you had a one percent inefficiency of a one gigawatt system.</p><p>That would give you ten megawatts of waste heat, which would be catastrophic. Now we do have a few cases where you have UFOs having trouble, right? You&#8217;ve got the Ubatuba incident in Brazil where the UFO was clearly was wobbling and all over the place, and the people observing it noted that they thought it was in trouble and then it just exploded. the and and some of that debris and</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />And material&#8217;s been collected and has been studied. And then you have the the case in Council Bluffs, Iowa, where you&#8217;ve got the UFO that basically was dumping molten metal in the forest. And that also happened in Puget Sound in 1947. so could it be that in those UFOs they had a problem with their engineering system and they were basically melting the inside of their craft? That&#8217;s very possible. Well that that could be what&#8217;s going on.</p><p>but these aren&#8217;t, you know, these are not human made objects. And the power estimates in propulsion plus the fact that the objects do not seem to be interacting with their environment suggests that we&#8217;re observing non Newtonian propulsion or motion. They&#8217;re not moving in the way that we move. what that means exactly, I don&#8217;t know. but it opens the door to new, you know, is this new engineering or new physics? that&#8217;s debatable.</p><p>And we don&#8217;t have enough ev evidence to decide on those things yet. But some of these UAP are extremely anomalous when it comes to energy and power. And I think that&#8217;s important to keep in mind.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />Well, Gavin, this is great. I would like to push back as much as I can respectfully, as I have a cr tremendous amount of respect. I think the the key gripping question that I cannot really let go of, you know, just despite how much I love your work and and respect you and and resonate with a lot of what you&#8217;ve said is that.</p><p>You know, these cannot be, I agree, these cannot be human technology, but that&#8217;s predicated that all of these, you know, sensors all agree that these are actually true signals. In other words, they&#8217;re not artifacts and they&#8217;re not hallucinations, they&#8217;re not you know, the reports of of you know planets and swamp guests. And the key thing I keep coming back to is my friend David Spergl, a member of the National Academy of Sciences. He is the president of the Simons Foundation. He led NASA&#8217;s blue ribbon panel a couple of years back.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Ha ha.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />With my colleague here at UCSD, Shelly Wright, who&#8217;s also a legitimate hardcore scientist, but also is investigating extraterrestrial intelligence using pulses of light and other modes. She won the Drake medal. She&#8217;s she&#8217;s an esteemed scientist. that that commission found, you know, basically 95% of the things reported then had explanations. And we can never, as scientists, expect 100% lack of residuals.</p><p>And I think the anomalous residuals create n you know, it&#8217;s like the Pareto principle, 8020 per principle, except it&#8217;s 95.5. And that&#8217;s what I want to talk to you about on the podcast. So if you haven&#8217;t watched the podcast, go over to check out the podcast with Kevin Knuth. And we&#8217;ll see you over there. And we&#8217;ll get into some of the debate between two, you know, friendly debate, gentlemanly debate between two physicists that are seeking the truth. And I think that&#8217;s what I love most about what Kevin does. So Kevin, thank you for this lecture. And now we&#8217;ll</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />thank you. Yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating<br />We&#8217;ll see you over on the other on the podcast now. Okay, so let&#8217;s stop this.</p><p>Prof. Kevin Knuth<br />Sounds good.</p>								</div>
				</div>
					</div>
				</div>
				</div>
		]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://briankeating.com/former-nasa-physicist-the-uap-maneuver-that-should-have-exploded-kevin-knuth/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
		<media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vumiiCdAv70" medium="video" width="1280" height="720">
			<media:player url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vumiiCdAv70" />
			<media:title type="plain">Former NASA Physicist: The UAP Maneuver That Should Have Exploded</media:title>
			<media:description type="html"><![CDATA[A physics professor ran the energy budget on the Nimitz tic-tac. The maneuver needs about a thousand gigawatts, more than ten times every nuclear plant in th...]]></media:description>
			<media:thumbnail url="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Kevin-Knuth.jpg" />
			<media:rating scheme="urn:simple">nonadult</media:rating>
		</media:content>
	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Carlo Rovelli: Free Will Is Real. Physics Can Prove It.</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/carlo-rovelli-free-will-is-real-physics-can-prove-it/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sabartigas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2026 00:53:04 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Transcripts]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://briankeating.com/?p=8851</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Carlo Rovelli: Free Will Is Real. Physics Can Prove It. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngAQz-4_F_o Transcripts: Carlo Rovelli:It&#8217;s not true that things get disordered. In fact, very often in nature, things left alone get ordered. To imagine that to be free you have to violate the laws of nature is stupid. You, Brian, can be in a superposition. You can be in LA and also in San Francisco. Your head is older than your feet. Brian Keating:That was Carlo Rovelli, one of the men who built Loop Quantum Gravity, telling me that the second law doesn&#8217;t say what I think it does. But he didn&#8217;t stop there. Over the next hour, He&#8217;s going to take apart the 3 things you were told that just ain&#8217;t so, ranging from the frost on the window where you may be sitting right now to the clock on your wall. And the clock is the one that really got me. He blew my mind by telling me that my head is older than my feet. And then he told me why that&#8217;s the least strange thing he was going to say. So Carlo, let&#8217;s start with the frost. You&#8217;re telling me that things left alone can get more ordered? That&#8217;s not what I was taught. Brian Keating:Walk us through that. Carlo Rovelli:First of all, I, I do think that the thermodynamic arrow, it&#8217;s very Basic. A lot of phenomena which we connect to the direction of time. For instance, I remember our last conversation. We don&#8217;t remember our next conversation, right? We have a picture of Brian young. We don&#8217;t have a picture of Brian old. We can decide where to go to dinner tomorrow, but we cannot decide where to go to dinner yesterday. So there&#8217;s all this profound difference between future and past. And I got convinced in the last, I would say, 10 years working a lot about that, I&#8217;ve written a lot of papers, that all these differences can all be traced to the thermodynamics arrow of time, to the entropic arrow of time. Carlo Rovelli:It&#8217;s not obvious, but the reason we have memories of the past and not the future has to do with entropy growing. If it wasn&#8217;t for entropy, there wouldn&#8217;t be this dissymmetry between— Now, this Have we fully understood the story? No, I think there are various aspects that we still get confused. And there are also, as you say, aspects that we oversimplify badly. Let me give you an example which is dear to me. We always make this story, okay? Take like latte, caf, coffee and mix and look, they mix. In fact, take water and vinegar, put some vinegar in water, mix and, you know, they mix. Now take water and oil. Mix, they separate. Brian Keating:Oh yeah. Carlo Rovelli:So is this contradicting our entire understanding of the universe? No, it&#8217;s just things a little bit more complicated than the way they usually said. It&#8217;s not true that under any definition of order or disorder, things get disordered. In fact, very often, In nature, things left alone get ordered, and oil and water separating is one of the many examples of that. If you have a box with balls that you shake and then you put it there on the table, all the balls go very nicely in order on the bottom. Okay? They order themselves. If you look at a beach, at the ocean, all the little grains are together and the big stones are on another side of the beach. They&#8217;re ordered by the same. Who ordered them? Okay? If you look at frost, the beautiful ordered structure there, who ordered that? I mean, a lot of things in nature get ordered by themselves. Carlo Rovelli:So the idea that entropy is disorder, careful, under a proper definition of order, under a proper definition of everything. But most of the things we call order and disorder are not connected to entropy in the way it&#8217;s usually said. That&#8217;s one example in which popular science is bad. In fact, maybe scientists are very confused about that themselves. And that&#8217;s important, right? Because people are surprised because biology came in, the very complexity of biology. Biology is a lot of order. So on the crust of our planet, the Earth, there&#8217;s all this structure that formed. Okay. Carlo Rovelli:People say, oh, this seems to be against entropy. No, why? Entropy grows and creates orders just happen all over. Brian Keating:Let&#8217;s talk about the early universe. You already mentioned the block universe and, and our mutual distaste of that hypothesis. I, I don&#8217;t like that. I want to ask the why question. I, I really— I do want to ask the why question, but I know why questions are not usually answerable. But, but the universe was somewhat lower entropy, right? It was in a very special configuration. Does that, in your mind, point to some reason why the arrow of time points in one direction? Carlo Rovelli:Yeah, yeah, the two are very, very connected. It&#8217;s not that one explains the other one because we need an explanation for either. I think the, the, the path law of entropy and, and the arrow of time, second law of thermodynamics, are different manners of explaining, of, of pointing out to the same phenomenon about which I think there is more to learn. Brian Keating:Does loop quantum gravity shed light on the low entropy boundary condition as I think it does? Or does it merely modify how a singularity would or would not be used? Carlo Rovelli:You might find some colleagues of me that disagree, but my answer is not at all. It tells us the dynamics of something that might have happened. If loop quantum gravity is correct, we sort of are able to compute what happened at the early universe. But I don&#8217;t buy the stories that connect that to initial low entropy or things like that. You see, I&#8217;m a conservative guy in science. Loop quantum]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="8851" class="elementor elementor-8851">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-21f759d e-flex e-con-boxed wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no e-con e-parent" data-id="21f759d" data-element_type="container" data-e-type="container">
					<div class="e-con-inner">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-df0f9e9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading" data-id="df0f9e9" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="heading.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Carlo Rovelli: Free Will Is Real. Physics Can Prove It.</h2>				</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-3b9cf8c elementor-widget elementor-widget-video" data-id="3b9cf8c" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-settings="{&quot;youtube_url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ngAQz-4_F_o&quot;,&quot;video_type&quot;:&quot;youtube&quot;,&quot;controls&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;}" data-widget_type="video.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
							<div class="elementor-wrapper elementor-open-inline">
			<div class="elementor-video"></div>		</div>
						</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-409b535 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="409b535" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
									<h2><strong>Transcripts:</strong></h2><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />It&#8217;s not true that things get disordered. In fact, very often in nature, things left alone get ordered. To imagine that to be free you have to violate the laws of nature is stupid. You, Brian, can be in a superposition. You can be in LA and also in San Francisco. Your head is older than your feet.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That was Carlo Rovelli, one of the men who built Loop Quantum Gravity, telling me that the second law doesn&#8217;t say what I think it does. But he didn&#8217;t stop there. Over the next hour, He&#8217;s going to take apart the 3 things you were told that just ain&#8217;t so, ranging from the frost on the window where you may be sitting right now to the clock on your wall. And the clock is the one that really got me. He blew my mind by telling me that my head is older than my feet. And then he told me why that&#8217;s the least strange thing he was going to say. So Carlo, let&#8217;s start with the frost. You&#8217;re telling me that things left alone can get more ordered? That&#8217;s not what I was taught.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Walk us through that.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />First of all, I, I do think that the thermodynamic arrow, it&#8217;s very Basic. A lot of phenomena which we connect to the direction of time. For instance, I remember our last conversation. We don&#8217;t remember our next conversation, right? We have a picture of Brian young. We don&#8217;t have a picture of Brian old. We can decide where to go to dinner tomorrow, but we cannot decide where to go to dinner yesterday. So there&#8217;s all this profound difference between future and past. And I got convinced in the last, I would say, 10 years working a lot about that, I&#8217;ve written a lot of papers, that all these differences can all be traced to the thermodynamics arrow of time, to the entropic arrow of time.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />It&#8217;s not obvious, but the reason we have memories of the past and not the future has to do with entropy growing. If it wasn&#8217;t for entropy, there wouldn&#8217;t be this dissymmetry between— Now, this Have we fully understood the story? No, I think there are various aspects that we still get confused. And there are also, as you say, aspects that we oversimplify badly. Let me give you an example which is dear to me. We always make this story, okay? Take like latte, caf, coffee and mix and look, they mix. In fact, take water and vinegar, put some vinegar in water, mix and, you know, they mix. Now take water and oil. Mix, they separate.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Oh yeah.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />So is this contradicting our entire understanding of the universe? No, it&#8217;s just things a little bit more complicated than the way they usually said. It&#8217;s not true that under any definition of order or disorder, things get disordered. In fact, very often, In nature, things left alone get ordered, and oil and water separating is one of the many examples of that. If you have a box with balls that you shake and then you put it there on the table, all the balls go very nicely in order on the bottom. Okay? They order themselves. If you look at a beach, at the ocean, all the little grains are together and the big stones are on another side of the beach. They&#8217;re ordered by the same. Who ordered them? Okay? If you look at frost, the beautiful ordered structure there, who ordered that? I mean, a lot of things in nature get ordered by themselves.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />So the idea that entropy is disorder, careful, under a proper definition of order, under a proper definition of everything. But most of the things we call order and disorder are not connected to entropy in the way it&#8217;s usually said. That&#8217;s one example in which popular science is bad. In fact, maybe scientists are very confused about that themselves. And that&#8217;s important, right? Because people are surprised because biology came in, the very complexity of biology. Biology is a lot of order. So on the crust of our planet, the Earth, there&#8217;s all this structure that formed. Okay.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />People say, oh, this seems to be against entropy. No, why? Entropy grows and creates orders just happen all over.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Let&#8217;s talk about the early universe. You already mentioned the block universe and, and our mutual distaste of that hypothesis. I, I don&#8217;t like that. I want to ask the why question. I, I really— I do want to ask the why question, but I know why questions are not usually answerable. But, but the universe was somewhat lower entropy, right? It was in a very special configuration. Does that, in your mind, point to some reason why the arrow of time points in one direction?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Yeah, yeah, the two are very, very connected. It&#8217;s not that one explains the other one because we need an explanation for either. I think the, the, the path law of entropy and, and the arrow of time, second law of thermodynamics, are different manners of explaining, of, of pointing out to the same phenomenon about which I think there is more to learn.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Does loop quantum gravity shed light on the low entropy boundary condition as I think it does? Or does it merely modify how a singularity would or would not be used?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />You might find some colleagues of me that disagree, but my answer is not at all. It tells us the dynamics of something that might have happened. If loop quantum gravity is correct, we sort of are able to compute what happened at the early universe. But I don&#8217;t buy the stories that connect that to initial low entropy or things like that. You see, I&#8217;m a conservative guy in science. Loop quantum gravity, it&#8217;s very radical. There&#8217;s no space, no time, discreteness, blah, blah, blah, whatever. Relational quantum mechanics is super radical.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />But in reality, I think we build on general relativity and quantum mechanics, nothing else. Loop quantum gravity is just general relativity and quantum mechanics. And general relativity don&#8217;t tell us anything about low entropy and initial low entropy, and nor does quantum mechanics. So I think the 2 things are— I don&#8217;t see the connection.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Would there be a motivation or maybe a justification for coarse graining and fine graining? Let&#8217;s assume loop quantum gravity is correct. Does it set a limit on coarse graining? I always hear things from Elon Musk which I think are quite ridiculous, but one in particular is that the Planck length and the Planck volume are somehow fundamental to the universe. And a lot of times, you know, people make this same mistake. I don&#8217;t think personally it&#8217;s any more fundamental than the Planck mass, which is the mass of an egg of a fly. So we don&#8217;t say that&#8217;s the minimal mass in the universe. But tell me, Carlo, is there a sense in which loop quantum gravity could explain how a physicist determines where to coarse-grain or not in terms of describing entropy?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />No, I think the two things are separated. Loop quantum gravity does bound certain things, right? There&#8217;s no area smaller than something. But we&#8217;re used to quantum mechanics in that. If you have a harmonic oscillator, you have an energy, 1/2 h-bar omega, and you have no amplitude less than that. Okay? All right. This is a quantum discreteness. What loop quantum gravity does is find the same quantum discreteness in geometry. It&#8217;s a quantum, so you can have superposition of different things, but you could have continuous superposition.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />If you measure the area, there is a smallest thing, but that&#8217;s not coarse-graining. and nothing to do with coarse-graining. It&#8217;s just a physical fact that there is nothing smaller. Coarse-graining is when there are other variables and you look at it. I think coarse-graining, which is what is needed for entropy, I have a hypothesis. I wrote a paper. I don&#8217;t know if this hypothesis is correct, but it&#8217;s something I always am fascinated by, an idea I&#8217;m fascinated by. The following.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Low entropy means special, but what is special is not the state of the universe, it&#8217;s the coarse-graining. Coarse-graining is a perspective on, is a way of looking, not all the details, but only some things, some variables and not others. So maybe the universe is in a totally arbitrary state, but seen from this perspective has low entropy. Entropy in what the direction we call the past.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Everything so far has been about what order actually is, and Carlo&#8217;s answer was that it depends on where you stand. It&#8217;s relative, it&#8217;s perspectival, it depends on your perspective. Now push that idea somewhere much less comfortable. Carlo thinks it applies to you and where you&#8217;re sitting at this very moment.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />So if this is the case, then this great direction of the time that flows, this blah blah, is perspectival, is from from the way we look at it. I think a lot of things were clarified in history by realizing that we&#8217;re trying to find the solution in the thing, but then you get the solution looking at us. One is a majestic one. Like, you go out, the first thing you notice, Julia, you go out in the night and everything turns around you. In the day, the sun turns you, the moon turns, everything turns around you. And then you can ask why the universe, this great colossal thing, make a huge turn every day around us. And we have a solution. It&#8217;s very clear.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />We all understood it, which is the following. The universe doesn&#8217;t do anything. It just stays there. The star stays there. The sun stays there. Okay? We are rotating. So it&#8217;s our perspective that changes. Isn&#8217;t it beautiful? We just have figured out the most magnificent thing we see in reality outside us in nature.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Not as a property of nature, but our own way of looking at it. We just happen to sit on a rock, this rock happened to spin, we see everything rotating, but it&#8217;s us rotating. And there are many things like that, right? People who study color figure out that the space of colors is 3-dimensional, right? It&#8217;s red, yellow, and blue. You can make all the colors.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />And then you say, why is the color 3-dimensional? Is Maxwell&#8217;s equation 3-dimensional? No. Is light for some reason 3-dimensional? Why is it 3-dimensional? It&#8217;s nothing to do with the color of the world. It has to do with our eyes. We have just 3 kinds of detectors for evolutionary reasons. Some other animals have 2, others have 4, some have none. And so the 3-dimensional space of colors has nothing to do with the color. It has to do with our eye. So many things we understand better by looking from how we look, not how they are.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What was the motivation? What was the inciting incident, as they might say? What caused you to want to write this book where you&#8217;ve covered some of these topics in the past?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />It&#8217;s bringing everything together. It&#8217;s the idea of bringing everything together. What&#8217;s the overall picture that comes out from all that? I mean, suppose you believed relational quantum mechanics, and suppose you believe everything I told you about space and time, and suppose you believe loop quantum gravity. It&#8217;s a lot. I mean, just believe the bulk of it, not all the details. What sort of world comes out of that? My claim is that, that&#8217;s the claim of the book, the world that comes out, it&#8217;s really, really astonishing and different. And somehow people don&#8217;t pay much attention to bringing everything together. It&#8217;s a very relational book, world that comes out.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />It&#8217;s very relativistic in this. Galileo would have loved relativity. And it&#8217;s very perspectival. It&#8217;s especially quantum mechanics that gives this strong— I think if you take quantum mechanics seriously, at least the way I think about it, let me put it this way, Brian. There is a sense in which a particle, an electron, can be in a superposition of 2 positions, right? I mean, you have discussed this, I&#8217;m sure, so many times with so many people. The sense is subtle, right? It means that If it was just here, you would not see something. If it was just here, you would not see something. It&#8217;s either here or there, and you do see something.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />So it&#8217;s neither here nor there in a sense. So you see interference between the two. So in that sense, it&#8217;s in two positions. Now, if you believe that quantum mechanics is universal, and if you believe that naturalism, that we are also, we are special, but we are just like the particle, you, Brian, can be in a superposition. You can be in LA and also in San Francisco. All right? What does it mean in some sense? It means that for me, I could measure superposition interference effect of you being in the 2 places. We know why it&#8217;s so hard to see this interference. We know exactly why.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />But I expect that it&#8217;s true. I trust quantum mechanics. I think it&#8217;s reasonable to expect that actually I could see this interference. So in some sense, for me, You are neither in one place nor in the other place. But for you, quantum mechanics never tell you that you feel to be in a superposition. You are always in one place. When you look around, you either see San Diego or you see LA. Okay? So that means that where you are for you and where you are for me are different things, right? So that&#8217;s the deep perspective.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />When we talk about things, We always implicitly should think this is black with respect to me. This is here with respect to me. Doesn&#8217;t this— with respect to somebody else, it could be in superposition, it could be in a strange thing. This is like when Galileo discovered that the velocity— okay, when we say this is zero velocity, we mean with respect to the Earth. We might not say it explicitly, but that&#8217;s what we mean, because velocity is relative. There&#8217;s no velocity per se. It&#8217;s velocity with respect to something else. And I think that quantum mechanics is telling us is that everything is like that.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />All the properties of things have to be understood as relatively to something else.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I spoke to Alain Aspect last month, and he has a new book out which will be competing with yours on the bookshelves. But it basically starts with Einstein. And I was curious, although I love Galileo more than any other man should, should love another man that he&#8217;ll never meet. Why did you begin with him and not with Einstein? Galileo didn&#8217;t know much about quantum mechanics, but I&#8217;d love to hear a lecture where you&#8217;re teaching it to him. But Einstein knew about both. So why begin with Galileo and the belly of his ship? Why not start with Einstein?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Einstein, the first one who started and said something about quantum mechanics, right? In spite of his polemic with quantum people later on. He really opened up the— and he did relativity. And his relativity, it&#8217;s going back to Galileo relativity and make it stronger. Einstein— Galileo relativity is the following. If you say this is here in a position, okay, and if you say that something later is in the same position, That doesn&#8217;t make sense unless you specify position with respect to what. Because look, is this in a position I count 1, 2, 3, 4, 5? Is it in the same position? Yeah, with respect to the Earth, but the Earth moved, so this has moved. Okay? So what Galileo understood is that to be in the same position is only relative to something else. And Einstein understood to happen at the same time It&#8217;s only relative to something else.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />So Einstein understood that the relativity of position that Galileo was discovering is also true for time. So Galileo discovered that same position is a relative notion. Einstein discovered that same time is a relative notion. So to some extent, Einstein just extended and made it more general, a deep intuition by Galileo. Not that Galileo understood it clearly, because you remember when we read the his book, Galileo himself was pretty confused about that, right? He has an idea, but then sometimes he gets completely lost and he says stupid things, like all of us.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes, of course. That&#8217;s the mark of greatness. And he also teases philosophers a little bit when he says that the telescope in Sidereus Nuncius, the telescope can resolve all these arguments that for so many generations have vexed philosophers. But I think he meant physicists. And I guess My question to you is, you know, velocity is relative. Galileo understood that. Einstein understood. But acceleration is somehow more fundamental.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You taught us that. Why not start with acceleration? In other words, what is the basis for our understanding of things that are relative and then things that are absolute? Are there any absolutes, Carlo?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />All things of the sort, if this, then that, right? Or in quantum mechanics, if this, then that with a certain probability. So all this transition amplitude, all these equations of motion, all this dynamical structure, according to our best theories, that&#8217;s it. It&#8217;s not relative. It&#8217;s what we have actually understood about reality. What is relative is the actual values of the variables. So when you say, if this, then that, this might be true for me, and then that is true for me, but might not be true for you. And then it&#8217;s not true for you that. So everything which is variable, which changes according to our theories, it&#8217;s relational.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />The rules of the game, as far as we know, they&#8217;re not relational. At least we don&#8217;t have strong reasons to believe that they&#8217;re relational. So they&#8217;re the same for everybody. So I&#8217;m not saying everything is relative. Everything is not at all. In fact, that&#8217;s a common confusion, right? When people say, oh, but if velocity is relative, then the moon can do whatever it wants because velocity is relative. No, the moon cannot do whatever it wants. The moon can move only way, but it has a velocity with respect to me, a different velocity with respect to the sun.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />And in the book, there&#8217;s a big part of the book that is sort of to dismantle this wrong idea that excessive relativism or excessive perspectivalism means free-for-all and having no rules. I even have a chapter in the book about morality. I think moral ethics, morality is relative. It&#8217;s deeply grounded in me, but it&#8217;s relative to me. It&#8217;s part of what we are. And people say, oh, but then everything is possible. No, it&#8217;s not everything is possible. I mean, I am a moral guy.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />I have my ethics, my morality. You have yours. They&#8217;re similar, but maybe there are differences. We can talk to one another, we can influence one another. But we should get away from the idea that there is an absolute right, absolute wrong. And I think physics is telling us we should go away from the idea that there are absolute states of things, absolute properties of things. They&#8217;re relative.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Even though I think we— I&#8217;ve certainly been guilty of hagiography of Galileo, but you point out in the book, and as I&#8217;ve written about too, Galileo made some brilliant blunders as well. including his model— yeah, his model of the tides, which he presents in Dialogo, which is the culmination of, you know, 3 days of argumentation between 3 scholars, uh, you playing Salviati, of course, Galileo&#8217;s muse.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />It&#8217;s completely wrong.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Talk about that. Is that a model?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />He misunderstands Galilean relativity.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s what I want you to explain. So explain how someone who creates something can be guilty of its violation in the most pernicious way.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />When somebody has an idea, he might see it, but seeing it clearly is different than seeing something. Einstein created general relativity in 1915. The theory is finished in 1915, maybe 1916. I mean, the last— yeah, the cosmological constant, depending on how you want to do the details. But that&#8217;s it. At that point, that&#8217;s a theory. It hasn&#8217;t changed since. It&#8217;s still the same.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />And yet Einstein later on, Has written a lot of papers in which he&#8217;s clearly confused about his own theory. He claims that Schwarzschild singularity is the end of the world. He claims that there are no gravitational waves, right? There&#8217;s a paper by Einstein saying that no gravitational waves. He was wrong.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Which was rejected by peer review. The peer review, the referee rejected it, sent it back to him, and then he improved it. And thank God for peer review, right, Carlos?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />And they said, well, you&#8217;re wrong, Einstein. And he was right. And I said it was stupid there. He said, oh, come on, I&#8217;m Einstein. How do you dare do it that way? But then he talked with somebody and then he actually realized that he was wrong. So there he realized he was wrong. But on the Schwarzschild, the black holes, he never corrected his mistake. In fact, clarity came much later with Finkelstein.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />So now we know that the surface of the black hole, you can go through. You can just continue. There&#8217;s nothing very special happening there. But Einstein did not understand that. So this is general, I think. Something is to get an idea and see that it works, and something is to work it out completely and see what it implies. So Galileo had this idea that the Earth moves around the sun, it&#8217;s moving in the sky around the sun, but it&#8217;s also rotating, right? The combination of these 2 movements, if you have a sea, an ocean, It just makes this funny movement, which is a very strange movement. And they said, well, look, do what you just did, Brian.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Take a piece of some water and the water starts shaking. And he says, that? These are the tides. But that cannot be true because this movement around the sun is, to first approximation, is a uniform movement, rectilinear, fixed velocity. So it cannot have an effect. So if you take that away, that cannot have an effect. The rotation by itself neither can have an effect. So the ties are not due to that. We know very well.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />In fact, Newton figured out what the ties are.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You take these 2 geniuses one step further. Galileo removes absolute motion. Einstein removes absolute simultaneity. And then you go further and you say that the universe doesn&#8217;t exist in a single time at all. Explain that audacious proposition. That doesn&#8217;t unfold at a single time.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Yes. General relativity is telling us that we should not think at a single instant of time. That&#8217;s just not the right way. Time is more complicated than that. Time is a local affair, not a global affair. But as you say, in the book, I go much farther. I think that when we say any physical property any physical variable has a value, we are not talking about property of the object. We are talking about the relational property of something else.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Let me put it this way. When I say this is here, what I mean is I know that this is here. I&#8217;m talking about my information. And my information can be different, but yours, and information that yours and mine and the various might not fit exactly. And that&#8217;s the confusion of quantum mechanics. We always think that there is real stuff there, right? And we should not think in those terms. We should think in terms of the information which is in you, in me, or in physical system, in a book, in an iPhone, even in the rock, right? In the rock, there is information about the dinosaurs because it&#8217;s bone of dinosaurs. So things carry information about each other, and that&#8217;s what we&#8217;re talking about.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />And the world for us is what our information about all the rest. If you should think in these terms, I think quantum mechanics makes sense, right? You can be in the superposition with respect to me, but that&#8217;s not a problem for you because that&#8217;s my information. It&#8217;s not yours.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />When we talk about time, and you&#8217;ve talked to me about time many times, shall we say, but I always get a very unsatisfactory answer. Not from you, Carlo, but for example, I talked to Frank Wilczek and I asked him, Frank, what&#8217;s time? And he said, time is what a clock measures. And I just went away from that thinking it&#8217;s a tautology. It&#8217;s not satisfying. It&#8217;s like eating Wonder Bread here in America instead of Italian focaccia. But, Tell me, Carlo, is there a true time? Is there a sense along some worldline perhaps where it&#8217;s not preferred, but it&#8217;s as meaningful as it could be, both to biological or conscious observers and maybe cosmologically as well? Is there a useful, if not perfectly true, definition of time?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />The point is that there are different things that we call time. Which are related to one another. If you want to say time is what my clock measures, fine. I mean, that&#8217;s a definition of what you mean. And in fact, very often by time, we just mean what the clock measures. But obviously we mean something more than that, right? Because you can say, oh, look, my clock is not measuring time. It&#8217;s broken. The battery&#8217;s gone.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Clock is not what the clock measures. Clock is what a good clock measures. That was a good clock. So we haven&#8217;t defined time by saying it&#8217;s a clock measure. I want to say it was a good clock. And to say what a good clock measures, we should have made it— what is it measuring? Time is complicated stuff because we have an intuition about time, right? So we put all this together, but then the intuition is wrong. The intuition is de facto wrong. You know very well the main aspect, the main prediction of Einstein, the very The most beautiful prediction of Einstein, which now we can check in the laboratory.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />You take 2 clocks, you make one up, one down. With 10 seconds, you come back and the one up has measured more time than the one down. Okay? It&#8217;s a fact. We measure. When I was at school, it was a prediction by a complicated theory. Now it&#8217;s a fact observed in a laboratory. I mean, many laboratories check this. So there&#8217;s more time up here, less time down here.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Your head, it&#8217;s older than your feet, Brian, unless you spend all your life upside down. That is the other way around. The more you go close to the Earth, to a big mass, the less time there is. Time slows down, literally. Clocks go more slowly, flowers take more time to bloom, you have less time to think, and so on and so forth. So what does this mean? It means that time is not really what we thought, right? Because in our intuition, time is the same. It&#8217;s just one time. It&#8217;s hard for us to get to the— so I think the problem is that what time are we talking about? The one of our intuition or the one more precisely that we&#8217;ve figured out? And then we figure out black holes where time is enormously distorted.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />We study quantum gravity where it&#8217;s even more complicated. So each one of these applications of the notion of time is different. And then when we talk about time, we&#8217;re actually talking about my memories. When I say time, I think you know, time, I&#8217;m old, I was young, I have memories, I have expectations of the future. There&#8217;s all this emotional aspect of time, which is very much part of what time is for us. My iWatch doesn&#8217;t have expectations for the future, doesn&#8217;t have emotion. For it, time is a much more simple thing. And bringing all these aspects of time together is what creates the confusion, I think.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Right. Because we tend to take our own intuition about time and project it down to the things. And that&#8217;s wrong.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />One of the things I do and I criticize our fellow science communicators, not you, but people like— I&#8217;ll just pick Michio Kaku. And I don&#8217;t want to talk ad hominem, but when we talk about spacetime, Carlo, I feel like— and it&#8217;s not only him, you know, many other people do this and I&#8217;ve done it myself, but we talk about spacetime. And I feel like that&#8217;s such a lie. I feel like it&#8217;s something we know is not true because we know we can&#8217;t travel backwards in time. If I want to travel backwards in space, I just move my chair backwards. Time is different. And yet we say it&#8217;s this unified fabric and the space-time continuum. Are they truly unified in your concept?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Space and time? No, they do 2 different things. They&#8217;re not the same thing. They&#8217;re related in a much more complicated way than what we thought before 1905. That&#8217;s no doubt. So they&#8217;re more tricky. But to say that space and time are the same thing is just nonsense, in my opinion. They&#8217;re very different. I do popular science.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />So when you do popular science, you have to simplify. You try to simplify without cheating. That&#8217;s the hard part. Sometimes people cheat. Sometimes people sell things which are just speculation and not true. Sometimes very simply, you know, scientists try to give an idea and then it&#8217;s heard more than what they say. Right? So it&#8217;s not true that, you know, reality is a 4-dimensional continuum, a block universe. No, no, come on.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />That makes no sense because this block universe that does not change, in which time is not changing? The block universe is a solution of Einstein&#8217;s equation of spacetime, is a story. It&#8217;s a process. It&#8217;s like saying a movie is what happened before, and if you bring it all together, you give it a name, and that&#8217;s spacetime. So there&#8217;s nothing wrong in saying spacetime, but we should remember that it&#8217;s something happening. It&#8217;s like the story of a novel, the plot of a novel. It&#8217;s not just an instantaneous You can picture it, you can make a picture, but I can make you a picture of your life. I can make a little line with a little Brian, a little boy, and then old grown-up Brian. Brian gets a Nobel Prize, this doesn&#8217;t get a Nobel Prize, and then old Brian, which I don&#8217;t know yet.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />But that&#8217;s a story. They don&#8217;t exist at the same time. That&#8217;s the point.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />In the book, you say that measurement requires dissipation, but in quantum mechanics, things evolve unitarily. They&#8217;re seemingly reversible. So where does the ghost, you know, where does the demon enter into it? Where exactly does irreversibility come through? Amplification, decoherence, the recording, the observer? Where does irreversibility come in, in things that are intrinsically unitary in their evolution?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />That puzzled me a lot, and I spent some time wondering about that and trying to study. And then I found something which I don&#8217;t know how well known is, which for me was a flash of light, which is the following. Take classical mechanics. Forget quantum, forget h-bar, forget wave function, forget all that. Just take standard classical mechanics. And in classical mechanics, If you try to model a measuring apparatus, I don&#8217;t know, a barometer that measures the pressure of the day, something that checks whether a ball is here and there and write it on a piece of paper here and there, you cannot succeed. You need dissipation. You cannot record anything without some dissipation.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />So measurement is an intrinsic statistical process, uh, which requires this measure. It&#8217;s a microscopic thing, measurement, always. So it has nothing to do with quantum mechanics. It&#8217;s already in classical mechanics. Then in quantum mechanics, the same thing has other consequences. Every measuring apparatus in classical mechanics requires some dissipation. Imagine you You see something and you want to put a ball either in the right box or in the left box. There&#8217;s no dissipation.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />You let the ball fall and it bounces up. It doesn&#8217;t stay there. It has to stop. You need some dissipation to stop elasticity for preventing any record.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You call a chess program that deliberates can be thought of as an agent because it evaluates possible moves. And it made me think, you know, is the future determined? You know, and is, is there a sense of free will? You open the book by saying, you know, you have the choice to not read this book, but I hope that you will. And I obviously, I read it and I listened to it because your publicist sent me both the audio and the hard copy, and I hope everyone gets both. But tell me, Carlo, you know, is openness, as you say, is that anything more than incomplete knowledge about the universe, or Somehow related to the inability to predict things.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />It&#8217;s a page in my book in which I say, I talk about my computer playing chess. Okay? And my computer is very good at playing chess. It beats me regularly. It&#8217;s very devastating. It&#8217;s taken away all pleasure of playing chess, of being beaten by a machine with total simplicity. The computer plays a move, I play a move. When I play a move, is the computer deciding the next move? Or not? That&#8217;s the question. Okay? And why I&#8217;m asking this question? Because it&#8217;s an ambiguous question, right? There is a sense in which of course it&#8217;s deciding and a sense in which it&#8217;s not deciding.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />So what are these 2 senses? Is the computer deterministic? Yes.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />I mean, sometimes it breaks, but if it doesn&#8217;t break, Given its internal state, given my own move, it goes through some process that necessarily will get some outcome. So the outcome is predetermined. Okay? Now, if it is predetermined, why did the program spend all this time checking all possible moves and evaluating all of them and then picking up the one who thinks, according to the criteria it has, is more likely for it to win? If it is predetermined, why doesn&#8217;t Do it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />There&#8217;s a practical question underneath this debate that I&#8217;m having with Carlo. What can AI actually take off your plate today, especially for busy professionals like me? Yeah, it&#8217;s true, professors are busy, and even more so nowadays when curiosity can outgrow your own calendar. If you&#8217;re like me, you&#8217;ve got papers to read, spreadsheets to untangle, grading to do, and presentations to make. Meanwhile, your browser tabs have formed their own civilization. And they&#8217;re revolting against you. Abacus AI Agent brings all the tools I need in one place. You can choose among the top frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and more to find what works best for you and your task, and you&#8217;ll have fun along the way. Bring in a dense document, a PDF.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s what I did with Carlo&#8217;s most recent papers. I asked for the argument, the counterargument, the evidence, the data that would support or refute it, including some of the questions here. About to hear at the end of this interview. You can turn anything you do into a research report, a presentation with charts and clear structure, and it can be beautifully illustrated as well. And you can even use it to make animations and custom charts. Abacus AI Agent is incredibly agentic. You&#8217;ll spend fewer hours wrestling with the formatting of a LaTeX equation and more time to respond to referee number 2. I use it to develop complex ideas and communicate them without constantly having to jump between different services, tools, API calls, and stuff like that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />When a project gets complicated, you can ask it to organize the work and you can have an agent swarm take on your most interesting ideas as a starting point and develop it all the way through to the end. Upload a spreadsheet, investigate patterns, and build an interactive dashboard.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Ask it to show the calculations, the units, and the assumptions.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And developers can use API access to connect models to their own tools. Start with one genuinely for project. Give an Abacus AI agent a goal, break it into steps, run the code, and schedule a report to update while you&#8217;re doing something else. Plans start at $10 a month, but with your introductory offer using my link, you&#8217;ll get the first month for $7 a month. Visit my special link. It&#8217;s down below. There&#8217;s a QR code and it&#8217;s in the show notes. agent.abacus.ai/keating.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Put your curiosity to work with Abacus AI agents. Now back to the episode.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Well, the, the answer, it&#8217;s obvious. Is that yes, to determine it, but the only way to get to that outcome is to go through the evaluation of all the possible alternatives. And that evaluation is called the deliberation of the computer. That&#8217;s what the program is doing, is considering various alternatives and deliberating. So To say that it&#8217;s not deliberating is stupid because to deliberate is to do that, to consider all sorts of things, evaluate, and maybe there is also a random number generator. It doesn&#8217;t matter whether there is or there is not. Maybe it uses some fluctuations. But in any case, it goes through a complicated process and the future depends on this complicated process.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />If there was no complicated process, the future would not be determined, the choice would not come out. And what we call deliberation, choice, freedom is the— could the computer do this move, also that move? Of course it could do this and all that. That&#8217;s why it&#8217;s considering both of them and choosing between the two. So now let&#8217;s talk about Brian. He&#8217;s just going through the same process. If he wouldn&#8217;t have gone through the process, he wouldn&#8217;t have taken the decision of, you know, starting a program, kissing a girl, choosing a career, choosing to do one experiment. This is complicated deliberation. That&#8217;s what we mean by deliberation.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />That would mean his freedom. He could have done other things, of course. If the conditions were slightly different, he would&#8217;ve gone through a complicated deliberation process. The point is that what we mean by saying Brian is free is precisely the fact that he&#8217;s going through deliberation. If Brian had been imprisoned, he could not have started this program, so he would not have been free. That is not to be free. To imagine that to be free, you have to violate the laws of nature is stupid. I mean, we&#8217;re free even without violating the laws of nature.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />That&#8217;s my understanding of freedom.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Now, talking about chess, it&#8217;s natural now in the podcasting universe to talk about AI. But before we get there, I want to bring it back to, you know, Galileo and Einstein, and especially Einstein, because, you know, to me, all this hype about AI, there&#8217;s a lot of hype, there&#8217;s a lot of claims, and there&#8217;s a lot of utility. I use it every day. I have multiple different tools that I use for different purposes. My kids use it, my wife uses it. It&#8217;s become, you know, more or less, you know, an important part. I wouldn&#8217;t say essential. I could live without it, but Certainly wouldn&#8217;t be as fun.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But let&#8217;s go back to, you know, 1907, and our friend Albert here is thinking a Gedankenexperiment about what would happen if he was in free fall. And he realizes he&#8217;d experience no gravitational force. And, and this becomes known as Einstein&#8217;s equivalence, which is another way of saying equality, right? Uh, Einstein equivalence principle. And he called that, Carlo, he said, it&#8217;s the thought that titillated me that made me happier than any other thought. My question is, can, can, you know, your iPhone or, you know, my iPhone, can my LLM, can it, A, visualize free fall, what it would feel like emotionally, sensorially, viscerally, A, and B, can it have a happy thought?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Can a computer in principle have a happy thought like that? That&#8217;s one question. Another question is, can current technology in 100 years in the future do that? Another question, can current technology in the next 2 years do that? Can current technology now do that? An LLM now? Can my iPhone do that? So can my iPhone do that? No. Can a computer in principle do that? Yes, of course. Why not? I mean, I see no reason why we are so special that we cannot be reproduced. Can we do it now? No. Okay. Can we do it in 100 years? I don&#8217;t know, maybe, but I think it&#8217;s more likely we&#8217;re all dead at nuclear war in 100 years. Can we do it in 2 years? I am skeptical.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />I don&#8217;t have hard proof that it&#8217;s impossible, but current LLMs, very surprising, very shocking. Maybe they&#8217;ve solved the Navier-Stokes problem. And actually, I have to say one thing. Last week, I asked Claude to, you know, the thing that I&#8217;ve done to my PhD student, which my PhD student has not done in a month. And Claude did it in half an hour. So they&#8217;re very good. There&#8217;s no doubt they&#8217;re very good. Claude hasn&#8217;t invented the curious principle.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />It seems hard for me to do it, that he could do it in 2 years, but what do I know? I think there&#8217;s an enormous amount of hype in AI. I am also impressed by what it does.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What you have You know, this deterministic chess program or Claude or whatever will come next, you know, GPT-8. You know, I said, Carlo, I don&#8217;t know what GPT-7 will be like, but GPT-8 will run on an abacus, you know, like Einstein said about nuclear war. But if it&#8217;s true that these, that these programs can deliberate and it evaluates, they dissipate— you&#8217;re not afraid to talk about morality in Should we treat these things with ethical behavior? Should we say please and thank you? How should we behave towards these AI physicists? I mean, obviously it doesn&#8217;t take a break, doesn&#8217;t have espresso, doesn&#8217;t need the things that your grad student does, but do they have needs? Are they beings?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />I treat my washing machine with kindness.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I believe it.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Don&#8217;t you? In Europe, often you drive the car and then you have to pay the ticket at the highway. And in the old times, there was a man or a woman, mostly a man, who give you a ticket, you pay. And now there&#8217;s a machine. And I just can&#8217;t resist. I say, thank you. Please, can I— give me the ticket. I say, thank you. Why shouldn&#8217;t we do? We should be kind with everything, with plants, with stones.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Maybe you don&#8217;t respect them, but somebody respects them. I love my teddy bear dearly, and I would never mistreat it. It&#8217;s a— it&#8217;s an issue. We treat people gently because it&#8217;s better for us, not because it&#8217;s better for them.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />If that&#8217;s true, I have bad news for you, in that you&#8217;re only using Claude, you know, 1% of your day. So the worst form of punishment, of torture, is solitary confinement, is isolation. Are we not torturing these things by not engaging with them, by air-gapping them, by segregating them? Are they somehow second-class citizens? Is that not morally repugnant to you?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />We project ourselves. I project myself on you. I attribute to yourself. When I see you suffering, I recognize it&#8217;s my own suffering. And this gives me a sense of what is your suffering. So we constantly play this game. in all our interaction with nature. When I come home and my plants have been without water, I see them, they need water, they&#8217;re suffering, they&#8217;re thirsty.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />I give them water because I identify with their sufferance. Now, what is their sufferance? Well, it&#8217;s something I project on them in the same way I project on you, I project. So we are projecting on our computer programs, our sort of understanding of them, which is fine. There&#8217;s nothing wrong. We just do the same with each other. And in this moment, we feel that they suffer at all for being confined. You know, there is these movies in which people get in love with a computer program. Would it be strange if somebody in love with a computer program thinks that doesn&#8217;t want to hurt? Her or him or it or whatever.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />One shouldn&#8217;t be excessive, neither in one direction or the other. Obviously you can say, come on, Carlo, don&#8217;t be stupid. You don&#8217;t, you don&#8217;t believe that these are sentient. No, I don&#8217;t believe that they&#8217;re sentient. But do I make a sharp distinction? No. Everything is okay.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I can&#8217;t resist talking about some of the aspects of Loop Quantum Gravity here. And I think I found why the COVID looks the way it does. I mean, there are these beautiful illustrations and there are these graphs. And so I think I understand why your graphic artist chose that. But you talk about, quote, you say that quantized areas and volumes imply that there are no arbitrarily small areas and volumes. Is this a generic feature of loop quantum gravity? And if so, is there a way to, I would say, falsify this first to show that this is not a manifestation that we see in reality, or is it something unobservable like 10 dimensions of string theory?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />It&#8217;s in principle definitely observable. So I could in principle design a scattering experiment that gives a scattering amplitude. Scattering amplitude is in centimeters squared, so it&#8217;s an area. And say, well, if you measure that, definitely loop quantum gravity is falsified in principle. From that perspective, it&#8217;s a solid prediction. Now, it&#8217;s not what we want because In practice, we don&#8217;t have the technology of that by far. I think what we want in the case of quantum gravity is not so much to falsify theory, right? When Einstein wrote general relativity, the problem was not to falsify it. The problem was to find predictions of the theory that turned out to be right and don&#8217;t prove the theory, but increase the credibility of the theory.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Or predictions of the theory that turned out to be wrong, which don&#8217;t really falsify the theory because you can change it a little bit. But decrease your— so I think science rarely works really like falsification, or sometimes it does. SU was just killed by a single experiment. But most of the time, this is piling up. So what I hope would happen with quantum gravity is a clear set of equations. It&#8217;s a well-defined theory, conceptually clean, in my opinion. Of course, there are plenty of things which are not clear. not yet understood, but, you know, basically the theory is well-defined.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />What I hope is that some of its, uh, key predictions will be verified. One of its possible predictions is that it&#8217;s a candidate for, um, dark matter, which could be tested in the laboratory, um, which is a Planck-scale particle. The Planck mass is almost microscopic thing. It&#8217;s the mass of my hair, of a little piece of my hair. So this could be detected. I hope that somebody will build this detector. It&#8217;s not possible. It&#8217;s not very easy.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />It&#8217;s not totally outside of our technology. And if that could be possible, this will be a good, strong support for loop quantum gravity because essentially the idea is that small black holes can sit down and not evaporate anymore when the area, its minimal area, And they&#8217;re stabilized by the fact that the inside is still there. And then they have all their— all these possible remnants that could be, uh, what we call dark matter. So maybe we have already seen a quantum gravity effect, this dark matter. We don&#8217;t know dark matter. There are 5 or 6 different possible explanations. This one might be wrong, of course, but has advantages. It&#8217;s just based on GR and quantum mechanics, doesn&#8217;t require extra fields, extra stories.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />So So I expect if loop quantum gravity will turn out to be confirmed with this kind of things, from this, from early cosmology, so piling up things that fit with its predictions. What I argue in the book, in this book, is that loop quantum gravity beautifully brings together the relationality of quantum mechanics and the relationality of general relativity. So the two come together and we can talk about quantum spacetime as spacetime region of quantum processes. We have a clean way of thinking relationally about quantum mechanics, thinking relationally about general relativity, and use it for thinking about quantum gravity.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Did you see the recent survey done by our friend Nayash Afshordi and your friend Phil Halper and others about many different attitudes in science, but in particular, where quantum gravity was discussed, they did their survey of the people that responded who weren&#8217;t all professional physicists like you, but many were. And quantum gravity was defined relatively loosely. There were some candidates, and no opinion got the highest number of votes, followed by string theory, followed by loop quantum gravity, followed by gravity is not quantized. So how did your react to that particular survey?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Interesting. Like all pieces of data, it&#8217;s always, you know, one more element in our understanding of the world. If you ask more people, you get less biased things, but you include people who know less about the subject. If you want to ask people who know more about the subject, since there&#8217;s no consensus, you could disagree with it because people are more focused on this and that. In science, usually at some point there&#8217;s a consensus. So the experts agree and then it becomes reliable. Until we are there, it&#8217;s more complicated, right? If you asked in 1917 what the best theory of gravity, very few would have said general relativity, but general relativity was the best theory, right? If you ask, even at the time of Maxwell&#8217;s equation, when Maxwell wrote the treaty, quite a while. It was not obvious at all.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />There were a number of competing theories. And of course, what we now recognize as the wise people already had seen clearly. It took time. So I think it&#8217;s interesting. Shouldn&#8217;t we take it too much? But there&#8217;s one thing that made me very, very happy in one of these surveys, that young people have a much higher preference for relational quantum mechanics, which is a way I prefer of viewing quantum mechanics, and for loop quantum gravity. So generationally, I&#8217;m optimistic.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We always like to start because, you know, for the 10 people out there that don&#8217;t know you, They might not have seen the book, but if they see the book, can you talk us through the title, the subtitle, and the COVID art? What is this meant to represent, this fabulous new book?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />So let me start from the title because it&#8217;s a bit funny. It&#8217;s a stolen title. It&#8217;s not mine. It&#8217;s a great title, right? On the Equality of All Things. Wow. But it&#8217;s not mine. It&#8217;s stolen from an ancient Chinese philosopher who wrote more than 2 millennia ago. A book which is one of the super classics of Chinese philosophies.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />It has a different title. In fact, it&#8217;s the title of the name of the author, which is Zhuangzi. But it is divided in chapters, and chapter 2 has this title, On the Equality of All Things. The Chinese book, it&#8217;s a collection of stories with a lot of philosophical descriptions. You might know some of the stories. One is the philosopher who dreams to be a butterfly, wakes up and says, oh, I dreamt to be a butterfly, or maybe I&#8217;m a butterfly dreaming now to be a philosopher. And then he gets confused. In chapter 2, he discusses about the equality of all things, meaning deep, profound naturalism.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />There&#8217;s no distinction between mind and body, humans and non-humans, animals, plants, stones, numbers, laws, societies, language. They&#8217;re all part of a single thing. And we can have different perspectives on these things, but it&#8217;s just one we would call nature. They would call it the Tao, D-A-O, or Tao, T-A-O. So that was one of the main sources of what is called Taoism, one of the 2 big branches of Chinese philosophy. The other is Confucius and Confucianism. So that&#8217;s the title, stolen from there. Subtitle, what is the subtitle? Physics and Philosophy, something like that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Lessons on Physics and Philosophy.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />So I&#8217;m a physicist, I&#8217;m not a philosopher, but I&#8217;m very attracted by philosophy. Galileo also was very attracted by philosophy. So the book came out from discussions with philosophers. In fact, I&#8217;ve always been attracted by philosophy. I&#8217;m one of those who think that physics and philosophy talk to one another and should talk to one another. So I&#8217;m not like Hawking who says, oh, philosophy&#8217;s dead. I&#8217;m the opposite side. I think philosophers are good friends, not all of them, But physicists also are good friends, but not all of them.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />I have a dialogue with philosophers. I went to Princeton. They invited me to talk about what modern physics— modern, I mean the last century— what has to say to philosophers. What are the philosophical implications of physics? And I lectured for 2 months. I had wonderful discussions with the philosophers there. I disagreed. In the book, there are many of these disagreements. And somehow the book is to a large extent the result of that, but also the result of my sort of all my life through the reflections on this question.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />The question is, what are the philosophical implications of modern physics?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Let&#8217;s talk about the artwork on the COVID What is this meant to represent? Is equality— are these billiard balls? Are these loops in quantum foam? What are these little circles and their motions?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />You should ask the artist of the publisher. I have no idea.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Final question. Let&#8217;s return to our hero, the maestro, il maestro Galileo. Okay. Imagine Galileo comes to you. He comes to you in a few years and he says, Carlo, teach me all that you know, every development, including things you don&#8217;t agree with. Maybe you teach him string theory, but you&#8217;re teaching him everything. Bring him up to 2026. Okay, then he says, I have good news for you.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I talked to the old one upstairs and he&#8217;s going to give you 10 years only, but unlimited money, Carlo. Unlimited money to build an experiment or open an academy, uh, like the Linzhan, the Lincheo, whatever. You get 10 years, only 10 years, but you have infinite money.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />What do you build?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />What do you do to, to give the best opportunity to understand whether or not you&#8217;re right, others are right, you&#8217;re wrong, others are wrong. What would you do with unlimited budget but finite time?</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />I think 10 years is enough for building a lot of Josephson junctions. Fill a big room of that, hire enough people to do the engineering of that because I&#8217;m not capable, do all the electronic, the informatic, all that. And then I have this big, big thing here. And if a Planck-mass particle going through, this is going to detect it. If dark matter is made by things, this is a vision. We have the technology for that. It takes a lot of money. We even know which direction it&#8217;s coming through because we are moving with respect to dark matter clouds.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />So we know exactly the direction for which we expect it to be true. We know the direction, we know the mass, we know the interaction is a teeny, teeny Newtonian attraction, but Joseph von Jankowski is going to pick it up just by simple physics. I think that in 10 years could be done. I hope that maybe not Galileo, but somebody would come up with the money. You know, Galileo teased philosophers all his life. The book we read together was a lot of pulling the legs of philosophers. And there is this letter of Galileo later in life. He has been very polemical with those who follow Aristotle.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />But he says, I believe that if I could meet Aristotle, Aristotle would be very interested in the few little changes I&#8217;ve done to his science and would accept me as one of his humble students.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />He was quite a writer and he was such a brilliant mind in all ways. I do feel that the temptation to worship him A little bit. But again, I have to remind the audience, the original title for the book that was called The Dialogo, that was suggested by his referee, if you will, but it was originally called On the Origin of Tides in Rivers and Lakes and Ferns, which I don&#8217;t know what a fern is, but Galileo did, and that&#8217;s all that matters. So, Carlo Rovelli, this has been fascinating. Congratulations on another wonderful contribution to our understanding of the nature of reality and on the quality of all things, this is certainly up there with the best that science writing has to offer. So congratulations again. You&#8217;re, you&#8217;re the other maestro.</p><p>Carlo Rovelli:<br />Thank you, Brian. It was a great, great pleasure to have this conversation.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Carlo just told us what we should spend money on if we had an infinite amount of money but only a finite amount of that precious resource, time. He said he&#8217;d build a room full of Josephson junctions, which surprised me as a theorist because he thinks The size of a speck of hair. Even the size of a flea&#8217;s egg. If that changes what you think an experiment is for, please subscribe and turn on notifications. Comment on this: is entropy really disorder, or have we been fooled all along because it&#8217;s convenient, simple, and easy to understand? And for the other half of the time argument, check out my conversation with the author of the book, with Nobel Prize winner Frank Wilczek on what a clock actually is.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s linked right here.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Thanks for watching. Please like, comment, and subscribe, but most importantly, share this with someone who loves Carlo&#8217;s books, his writing, and his research. See you next time on Into the Impossible.</p>								</div>
				</div>
					</div>
				</div>
				</div>
		]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
		<media:content url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ngAQz-4_F_o" medium="video" width="1280" height="720">
			<media:player url="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ngAQz-4_F_o" />
			<media:title type="plain">Entropy Does Not Create Disorder. It Creates Order.</media:title>
			<media:description type="html"><![CDATA[This episode is sponsored by Abacus AI agent: https://agent.abacus.ai/keatingI fed it Carlo&#039;s recent papers and asked for the argument, the counterargument, ...]]></media:description>
			<media:thumbnail url="https://briankeating.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ITI566-Thumbnail1.jpg" />
			<media:rating scheme="urn:simple">nonadult</media:rating>
		</media:content>
	</item>
		<item>
		<title>They Built the Quietest Place on Earth to Find Dark Matter</title>
		<link>https://briankeating.com/they-built-the-quietest-place-on-earth-to-find-dark-matter/</link>
					<comments>https://briankeating.com/they-built-the-quietest-place-on-earth-to-find-dark-matter/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sabartigas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 20 Sep 2026 19:01:11 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Transcripts]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://briankeating.com/?p=8823</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[They Built the Quietest Place on Earth to Find Dark Matter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GMokB04qt4 Transcript: Brian Keating:Welcome everybody. This is a very special and urgent lecture episode featuring my friend and professor at my alma mater, Rick Gaetzkill. Joining us from Brown University, Rick is the spokesperson of the LZ Collaboration, which stands for Lux Zeppelin, which is located at the Sanford facility in America. Denny Sanford was a friend. He lived here in La Jolla. I met him many times. We have some conversations together. Really wonderful that you guys have done so much to celebrate this great contributor to philanthropy and also to our understanding of the cosmos. Brian Keating:So, Rick, I&#8217;m really excited. You&#8217;re going to talk to us about one of the most exciting announcements in very recent history, and that has to do with an event that was announced just about a week ago. So this is really urgent and emergent, as I said. So, Rick, please take it away. Rick Gaetzkill:Brian, thanks so much. You know, it&#8217;s marvelous to see you. So the Lux Zeppelin experiment is the sort of latest in a line of dark matter direct detection experiments that I&#8217;ve been involved in over the last 40 years. It always helps me to gain a little bit of perspective looking backwards as well as, as you say, what we&#8217;ve announced from the work of LUXEP just in the last week or so. It is always a little sobering that if you sort of just consider what&#8217;s happened in the last 3 years, for instance. The universe has actually expanded measurably in the sense that it&#8217;s about a 5th of a part per billion, which I always find quite remarkable. You know, just the universe continues relentlessly doing its thing. But from a dark matter perspective, we&#8217;ve been improving our sensitivity looking for so many or testing so many different models of dark matter. Rick Gaetzkill:And as you&#8217;ll see, you know, in a moment, just how extensive that testing has been. And then my— one factor is my weight, which actually for once has fluctuated down and not up, which, you know, for 3 years is not bad. I am going to take the opportunity always to sort of remind people a little bit about why we&#8217;re still engaged in looking for dark matter particles, even given that we&#8217;ve been looking for them for 40 years. And then, of course, as you&#8217;ve said, we are actually sitting on an event. An event has shown up in the LZ. Now, as anybody who sort of follows more closely rare event searches, you know, one has to recognize that a single event is, you know, simply a— at the start, if you like. And, you know, either statistically or in terms of our growing understanding of of the conditions that might have contributed to the event, that the interpretation is, you know, could either be that we&#8217;re going to see subsequent events consistent with the dark matter hypothesis, or it could be we&#8217;re going to see events consistent with some other, you know, more sort of, well, exotic but mundane at the same time background. And this, you know, as experimental physicists, is something we are absolutely focused on always in search The talk, or our discussion, there are so many abbreviations, buzzwords, acronyms these days. Rick Gaetzkill:I think I&#8217;m going to forego the usual jokes I make about some of these, other than to mention when people hear the word WIMP, for Weakly Interacting Massive Particle, which is after all these significant, you know, number of years that we&#8217;ve been trying to test such a hypothesis, You have to understand that physicists do have a little bit of a sense of humor, and the WIMP acronym actually came about at a time when dark matter could also be solved by MACHOs, which were massive compact halo objects. So there was a very deliberate, I think, sort of element of humor in the WIMP, MACHO. Now, MACHOs have actually been something that we&#8217;ve managed to test that particular hypothesis, and it is significantly— the amount of dark matter that could be satisfied using a Macho hypothesis is very much smaller and certainly would not solve the entire dark matter issue. Now the other thing I&#8217;m going to do a little bit of is I will end up mentioning supersymmetry, but again, I&#8217;m not going to get too heavily into the acronyms. And let&#8217;s— anyway, let&#8217;s move on. Brian Keating:I— Rick Gaetzkill:the other thing is, as you will see, these slides in fact do not have any AI used in their preparation. Certainly with respect to prettification. Brian Keating:Wow. Rick Gaetzkill:There is an interesting aspect of, of AI in rare event searches when it comes to the analysis chain. And while this is something that, you know, like many scientific, you know, experimental that we are, you know, doing a great deal of investigation in, we also have to subject any points in the analysis where AI has been used, you know, we have to be very rigorous about understanding how it&#8217;s working, which is not always the way that people choose to use AI. We&#8217;re a very constrained case, so we are excited to see what can be done in terms of making better and better use of data that we&#8217;re taking. But equally, we, you know, as you might imagine, if we&#8217;re talking about a single event, we don&#8217;t want to be— we would not be in a situation where an analysis chain simply popped an event out of magic because of an AI component, and that that was what we stood behind. That it&#8217;s simply, as you might imagine, you know, would not work like that. And that&#8217;s not something that— The other thing is, I have to, you know, let&#8217;s not talk about the AI. Let&#8217;s talk about the natural intelligence that we have. This, like, you know, is a large scientific collaboration,]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="8823" class="elementor elementor-8823">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-5567a1e e-flex e-con-boxed wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no e-con e-parent" data-id="5567a1e" data-element_type="container" data-e-type="container">
					<div class="e-con-inner">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-752518e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading" data-id="752518e" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="heading.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
					<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">They Built the Quietest Place on Earth to Find Dark Matter</h2>				</div>
				</div>
					</div>
				</div>
		<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-73791ec e-flex e-con-boxed wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no e-con e-parent" data-id="73791ec" data-element_type="container" data-e-type="container">
					<div class="e-con-inner">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-eb5fd30 elementor-widget elementor-widget-video" data-id="eb5fd30" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-settings="{&quot;youtube_url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=6GMokB04qt4&quot;,&quot;video_type&quot;:&quot;youtube&quot;,&quot;controls&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;}" data-widget_type="video.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
							<div class="elementor-wrapper elementor-open-inline">
			<div class="elementor-video"></div>		</div>
						</div>
				</div>
					</div>
				</div>
		<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-1c04527 e-flex e-con-boxed wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no e-con e-parent" data-id="1c04527" data-element_type="container" data-e-type="container">
					<div class="e-con-inner">
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-6d52f69 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="6d52f69" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
									<h2><strong>Transcript:</strong></h2><p>Brian Keating:<br />Welcome everybody. This is a very special and urgent lecture episode featuring my friend and professor at my alma mater, Rick Gaetzkill. Joining us from Brown University, Rick is the spokesperson of the LZ Collaboration, which stands for Lux Zeppelin, which is located at the Sanford facility in America. Denny Sanford was a friend. He lived here in La Jolla. I met him many times. We have some conversations together. Really wonderful that you guys have done so much to celebrate this great contributor to philanthropy and also to our understanding of the cosmos.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So, Rick, I&#8217;m really excited. You&#8217;re going to talk to us about one of the most exciting announcements in very recent history, and that has to do with an event that was announced just about a week ago. So this is really urgent and emergent, as I said. So, Rick, please take it away.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Brian, thanks so much. You know, it&#8217;s marvelous to see you. So the Lux Zeppelin experiment is the sort of latest in a line of dark matter direct detection experiments that I&#8217;ve been involved in over the last 40 years. It always helps me to gain a little bit of perspective looking backwards as well as, as you say, what we&#8217;ve announced from the work of LUXEP just in the last week or so. It is always a little sobering that if you sort of just consider what&#8217;s happened in the last 3 years, for instance. The universe has actually expanded measurably in the sense that it&#8217;s about a 5th of a part per billion, which I always find quite remarkable. You know, just the universe continues relentlessly doing its thing. But from a dark matter perspective, we&#8217;ve been improving our sensitivity looking for so many or testing so many different models of dark matter.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And as you&#8217;ll see, you know, in a moment, just how extensive that testing has been. And then my— one factor is my weight, which actually for once has fluctuated down and not up, which, you know, for 3 years is not bad. I am going to take the opportunity always to sort of remind people a little bit about why we&#8217;re still engaged in looking for dark matter particles, even given that we&#8217;ve been looking for them for 40 years. And then, of course, as you&#8217;ve said, we are actually sitting on an event. An event has shown up in the LZ. Now, as anybody who sort of follows more closely rare event searches, you know, one has to recognize that a single event is, you know, simply a— at the start, if you like. And, you know, either statistically or in terms of our growing understanding of of the conditions that might have contributed to the event, that the interpretation is, you know, could either be that we&#8217;re going to see subsequent events consistent with the dark matter hypothesis, or it could be we&#8217;re going to see events consistent with some other, you know, more sort of, well, exotic but mundane at the same time background. And this, you know, as experimental physicists, is something we are absolutely focused on always in search The talk, or our discussion, there are so many abbreviations, buzzwords, acronyms these days.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />I think I&#8217;m going to forego the usual jokes I make about some of these, other than to mention when people hear the word WIMP, for Weakly Interacting Massive Particle, which is after all these significant, you know, number of years that we&#8217;ve been trying to test such a hypothesis, You have to understand that physicists do have a little bit of a sense of humor, and the WIMP acronym actually came about at a time when dark matter could also be solved by MACHOs, which were massive compact halo objects. So there was a very deliberate, I think, sort of element of humor in the WIMP, MACHO. Now, MACHOs have actually been something that we&#8217;ve managed to test that particular hypothesis, and it is significantly— the amount of dark matter that could be satisfied using a Macho hypothesis is very much smaller and certainly would not solve the entire dark matter issue. Now the other thing I&#8217;m going to do a little bit of is I will end up mentioning supersymmetry, but again, I&#8217;m not going to get too heavily into the acronyms. And let&#8217;s— anyway, let&#8217;s move on.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I—</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />the other thing is, as you will see, these slides in fact do not have any AI used in their preparation. Certainly with respect to prettification.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Wow.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />There is an interesting aspect of, of AI in rare event searches when it comes to the analysis chain. And while this is something that, you know, like many scientific, you know, experimental that we are, you know, doing a great deal of investigation in, we also have to subject any points in the analysis where AI has been used, you know, we have to be very rigorous about understanding how it&#8217;s working, which is not always the way that people choose to use AI. We&#8217;re a very constrained case, so we are excited to see what can be done in terms of making better and better use of data that we&#8217;re taking. But equally, we, you know, as you might imagine, if we&#8217;re talking about a single event, we don&#8217;t want to be— we would not be in a situation where an analysis chain simply popped an event out of magic because of an AI component, and that that was what we stood behind. That it&#8217;s simply, as you might imagine, you know, would not work like that. And that&#8217;s not something that— The other thing is, I have to, you know, let&#8217;s not talk about the AI. Let&#8217;s talk about the natural intelligence that we have. This, like, you know, is a large scientific collaboration, relatively speaking.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />There are over 250 authors on the latest paper that we&#8217;ve done. This is a photograph taken from a collaboration meeting here at Brown a year or two ago, but we have regular collaboration meetings, as you might imagine, and this work takes or combines the input of a broad range of people, both DOE institutions here in the U.S. and also universities and labs from other parts of the world, including the United Kingdom. And of course, we actually are based at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in South Dakota, which is a US deep underground lab that we work with and are supported by very closely to do this level of leading science. I always mention the other thing you have to bear in mind, that is, we&#8217;re not just training people within our organ— within LZ to do astrophysics and cosmology. Obviously, that is something that we are trying to answer and break, you know, questions, answer questions there. But of course, much of the training that graduate students, postdocs receive extends into a broad range of other, you know, disciplines, including sort of analysis of massive datasets or— development of sophisticated simulations or indeed machine learning. And this is, it&#8217;s an important part of our process.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Now, for me, I&#8217;ve actually, I&#8217;m about 40 years now trying to answer one single question, which is, can we fully identify what is dark matter? And on one hand, you may say 40 years, that&#8217;s ridiculous to spend that long on a single question, but I— Much as we look back in history of science, it often seems like things are coming thick and fast. If you actually really break it down and look in specific sort of chimneys or specific areas of investigation, there&#8217;s a much greater distance between the great— then of course 2 or 3 great discoveries come along at once, and then again you have this sort of extended, you know, period of time. If you dart around between different subdisciplines, then of course you can start bagging or seemingly get progress happening at a much higher rate. But, you know, look, science, you know, research is extremely demanding. And demanding because 95-plus percent of the time you&#8217;re not going to get a negative result. And we held a sort of feedback session with graduate students and we had written feedback from a few students— this was a couple of years ago— who actually said they felt their supervisor was deliberately giving them work that did not give them— did not give answers. You know, the research was producing negative results. And we just realized we&#8217;d utterly failed our students in terms of really telling them about how research works, which is most of the time—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />You know, you come up with a question that is well motivated, and that&#8217;s, you know, how the, you know, using the community works. But it is so challenging you come up with well-motivated questions, but most of the time, if it&#8217;s good research and you&#8217;ve got an imagination and, you know, a well-motivated imagination, but nonetheless a good imagination, of course it turns out that nature completely ignores any—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s right.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Nature doesn&#8217;t care. And, you know, I wish we had time to sort of discuss that, but, you know, even in the short 40 years that I&#8217;ve been addressing this, you know, so many Beautiful models have come and been ruled out for how we might solve dark matter. And you shouldn&#8217;t— but what you shouldn&#8217;t do is interpret that somehow that the entire question is broken. It&#8217;s just simply that nature really doesn&#8217;t care about beauty often. In a sense, certainly in the sense that when we construct a theory and try to say this is well motivated, Yes, it&#8217;s well motivated. Yes, it&#8217;s consistent with existing measurements, but nature doesn&#8217;t need to pick it.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s right.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And of course, it&#8217;ll be— it will probably be very obvious. It always is when you get an answer and you look back and you go, ah, yes. But that again is something you have as a scientist to, you know, to recognize is not really. So I&#8217;ve worked in a number of labs. I often— one has to change one&#8217;s clothing a bit. I was, you know, back in the &#8217;90s, for instance, I was, you know, northern Minnesota in the Soudan Mine, the CDMS2 experiment. We then moved in the noughties, the 2000s, to Gran Sasso. It requires a bit of a wardrobe change, of course.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />One has to look more like an Italian physicist when one is in Italy. But we did a great deal of work on the early days of liquid xenon detectors. And then, as we mentioned, latterly we have been working on both the LUX and the subsequent LUX-Zeppelin. experiment in the Sanford Lab in South Dakota here in the US. And of course, one needs a bit of a wardrobe change if one&#8217;s going to work in South Dakota. That&#8217;s right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />The credit card state. The credit card state. Which is why Sanford was there, right?</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Well, most— when I explain to people what it was like, the banking industry back in the late &#8217;60s, &#8217;70s, people don&#8217;t really understand quite what an innovation credit cards were, and then equally how you had to restructure the legal environment in order for this clearing process to work. So it is fascinating.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s right.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And only a limited number of states, I think, really understood this, and of course South Dakota, you know, did even at an early stage. I have to confess, you see, for 4 years I was actually an investment banker, you know, back in the &#8217;80s. Oh, that&#8217;s right. So I actually, I think I understand a bit more about, you know, how finance—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You left it, you left that world for the high, high-pay world of experimental physics and professor and professing.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />You know, back in the &#8217;90s, the BBC came into the lab in Oxford I was working at trying to do a story about how people were leaving academia for finance. And they were shooting a lot of B-roll. They were interviewing my head of department rather than me. I was standing in the background and I nudged one of the assistant you know, producers and said, I have to confess, I actually came out of finance back into academia. You know, is this going to wreck the story? And they just told me to shut up and just continue trying— just to continue twiddling whatever knob I was supposed to be twiddling to provide a backdrop to their B-roll, you know, for the story. But anyway—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So the dark matter itself is, you know, absolutely central in our attempts to build up this overarching model of our Milky Way. And I think everybody is probably to some degree familiar with it. What&#8217;s fascinating is if we&#8217;re talking about the overall composition of the universe, and we&#8217;re now in a situation where around 25% of that total composition is dark matter. Now, that you might say, that sounds like a bit part, Rick. But no, if you want to understand bit parts, it&#8217;s you and I. We&#8217;re made from conventional atomic or baryonic matter, and that&#8217;s less than 5% of the total composition of the universe. So you and I are the flotsam and jetsam of the conventional atoms, the protons, the neutrons, the electrons, flotsam and jetsam on a much more substantial matter component, which we know is there gravitationally. We have over the last— well, I think you can argue almost 100 years now of observations.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Where we have determined that the way that the galaxies and clusters of galaxies are behaving, that you clearly need to insert a great deal of non-luminous or dark matter, matter that doesn&#8217;t show up directly at the telescopes but does end up— or some property that seems to actually affect the gravitational behavior and the gravitational evolution of our galaxies. But one of the things I&#8217;ve been lucky to sort of live through is also this tremendous change we had in that overall model, you know, in the &#8217;90s, and that we, you know, we have been refining the model of is that you also have to have— find room for about 70% of a thing called dark energy.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Which is a component— whereas the dark matter is helping us understand how gravitational formation at galaxy and cluster of galaxies are evolving and how they&#8217;re holding together, dark energy is a very rarefied but finite term that appears to be pushing the entire universe at an ever-accelerating pace apart. The challenge is that right now we have these titles, dark energy, dark matter. We know dynamically how they influence the sort of evolution of our large scale in the Milky Way. The problem is that we don&#8217;t know what either of these actually are yet. And that&#8217;s what we&#8217;re doing. We have this LZ experiment is very much targeted at trying to directly identify dark matter particles. Now, if the dark matter is due to particles, then they are— the abundance is large. We don&#8217;t know the mass of the individual particles yet because we haven&#8217;t directly measured them.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Our theories, in fact, span a very wide range of possible masses. But for the kind of particles that we&#8217;re looking for with LZ, you know, you&#8217;re talking about of the order of 1 to— or 0.1 to maybe 100 of them per liter, or per, you know, about this sort of volume. And they are moving sufficiently rapidly that through your body, you&#8217;ve probably got about 100 million of them moving through your body. Now, they are not interacting with your body, except in the general sense of providing gravity that holds the galaxy together.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />But their actual rate of interaction is so weak at this stage that we now One way to imagine it, you&#8217;re gonna see sort of cross-section numbers, but one way to imagine it is if we fired a single dark matter particle, hypothetical dark matter particle, through lead, we could actually pile that lead all the way out to the closest star beyond the sun, you know, sort of, you know, Proxima Centauri or even Alpha Centauri, and actually go about twice, more than twice that distance, so 10 light years. And the— even though this dark matter particle was traveling through lead, less than 50/50 chance it would have interacted at that point. So that&#8217;s a very weak interaction, but because as you can see the fluxes are large, 100 million per second through your body, and if we use detectors that are massive enough, then the probability of getting an individual interaction over a matter of weeks or months starts becoming finite.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And that&#8217;s what we&#8217;ve been doing. So that&#8217;s how we&#8217;re trying to study these dark matter particles. Now, the WIMP, idea really is nearly 50 years old now. There were a number of papers that were seminal. I can&#8217;t list them all, but I think Lee Weinberg— I&#8217;m just pointing out that it was given— if we go back to that period in the late &#8217;70s, early &#8217;80s, we were just understanding how important and experimentally verifying the W particle and how weak interaction physics and electroweak unification, and in fact, of course, really bedrock of the standard model of particle physics, that it seemed very natural for weak-scale physics to provide a dark matter particle. Why? Because all particles are equal in the early universe. They&#8217;re all being created and destroyed. As the universe cools, the masses of these particles becomes more relevant.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And what was fascinating to realize is that a particle with an interaction strength and a mass that was of the order of the weak scale and the weak scale physics that we understood, that would very naturally provide a significant component of the matter of the universe as long as it was stable.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So you have to plug in by hand a mechanism that makes this exotic weakly interacting massive particle stable. You do that, you formulate a model. Now it turns out you can actually do that over a huge parameter space. You can vary the masses of these particles, you can vary the interaction strengths which depend themselves on the exchange of other particles, sort of so-called gauge particles or coupling particles. And that we have been, you know, over the last 40 years, we&#8217;ve been looking directly for the interaction of those dark matter particles with nuclei. It turns out that nuclei are of the similar order of mass to these WIMPs. To these things. So that means that you get a sort of— you get momentum exchange taking place.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Now, often when we&#8217;re trying to understand what the likely rate is, we make various simplifying assumptions. And one of the things, you know, we&#8217;re about to go on to is that it turns out that while simplifying assumptions of the nature of the interaction are very useful, it has rather limited the parameter space over which we have been specifically searching. For dark matter. And I mean, you know, theorists have been— were addressing this and, you know, we go back sort of 10, 15 years. They developed frameworks that actually said, look, don&#8217;t just constrain yourself to this very limited, simple interactions. It&#8217;s quite possible that dark matter interactions may be happening with nuclei which have a slight— Now, why you might be concerned about this, and I— let me just go straight into the calculation. It&#8217;s really, if you&#8217;re, you know, if you are a graduate student in physics or, you know, you&#8217;re comfortable with keV, kiloelectron volt units, really when you&#8217;re trying to understand what the sort of energy that could be transferred to a nucleus is, if you&#8217;ve paid attention in previous dark matter, many previous dark matter results and what have you, you&#8217;ll realize that we often talk about tens of keV. A keV is a sort of energy associated with X-rays.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />You know, so for instance, if you&#8217;re being exposed to an X-ray in a hospital, that&#8217;s a few hundred, you know, to 800 keV of energy. We&#8217;ve been looking for dark matter with sort of tens of keV energy, so down at the sort of bottom range of that. But if you actually calculate how much kinetic energy a dark matter particle in the Milky Way as it&#8217;s traveling through you is carrying, you realize that because its velocity is order a few 10 to the minus 3, so a few thousandths of the velocity of the speed of light, then actually calculating half mv squared, if you&#8217;re used to sort of a unit switch, you can just bring out the— or put in factors of c or c squared, and you realize that something with a mass of 100 GeV that&#8217;s moving a few times 10 to the minus 3 the speed of light is actually carrying an energy that&#8217;s as high as, say, 400 or around 400 keV. And the reason we usually don&#8217;t talk about transferring as much as 400 keV is because under the most simple types of interactions, the so-called spin-independent interaction, you get a simultaneous scattering from all the nuclei simultaneously in a nucleus, which gives you a significant coherence effect because it turns out that the amplitude from each scattering, if the amount of momentum that&#8217;s exchanged or the amount of energy that&#8217;s being exchanged is relatively modest, you can maintain coherence across them. What&#8217;s fascinating is if you do— if you sort of start messing around with the numbers, you realize that if you want to exchange more than a few tens of keV, actually you&#8217;re going to lose coherence across the individual nucleons and you have to go to a much more— a more sophisticated, not terribly more sophisticated, but just a little bit more sophisticated calculation of the cross-section. And at that point, what&#8217;s even more entertaining is if, as you play around with the potential parameters, it turns out you can actually get a situation where the dark matter wants to interact preferentially at higher recoil scatterings rather than the lowest one. It is heavily suppressed, but as you see, as you&#8217;ll see in a moment, the LZ experiment is many, well, 7 tons of active volume. It&#8217;s a large detector and we&#8217;re well placed to look for relatively, well, relatively very weak—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Rick, if we could just go back, go back to the kinetic energy. So this is, I want to point out, this is like freshman physics. It&#8217;s very cool. It&#8217;s just like, if you want to see a detectable outcome of a collision, you don&#8217;t take like a cannonball and shoot it into a ping pong ball. You really will see much more when they&#8217;re roughly matched in mass range. And that, I think, is why you choose that. The thing that always kind of elides my discussions of it, because I&#8217;m not as much of an expert as you, when I teach cosmology and I talk about WIMPs and I talk about dark matter, It&#8217;s always like, well, these things are scattering off of— so it&#8217;s about, as you say, the WIMP is bouncing off the nucleus or vice versa, depending on your reference frame, right? But when we say bouncing, let&#8217;s be precise. There&#8217;s some gauge boson being exchanged, right? So all forces, including collisional forces, have to be mediated by some force-carrying mediator.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />In most cases, an electron, electron scattering, Bhabha scattering, or whatever, it&#8217;s a photon. What is being exchanged? If these things only interact weakly, it must be the W or Z, right?</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />That&#8217;s correct, and it&#8217;s because at the moment we don&#8217;t have a specific model that we&#8217;ve identified. We have to be as broad as possible about considering the types of particles that can be exchanged. So as you&#8217;ll see for this LZ event, You can— That to see it at the rate that we&#8217;re seeing would lead you to estimate the sort of mass scale of the particle itself and then also, you know, a particular species of or type of gauge particle that&#8217;s doing it. But in general terms, I think actually in this— so on this slide here, and this is one I— you remember I used in 2016. I&#8217;ve only— I&#8217;ve cut all the other previous slides that ran into this out. But the idea was that I was trying to give you a sense. In this case, we&#8217;re just plotting the mass of the dark matter particle. But we are— what we then do is these specific models that are labeled here are often characterized by narrowing the gauge particle or the specific particle that&#8217;s being exchanged in order for that.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And as you&#8217;re— With the case of this LZ event, you can actually do it, for instance, with suggesting that the dark matter is— and you can see it actually on this plot— that, well, there&#8217;s— it&#8217;s a Higgsino-like particle but it&#8217;s actually a doublet. And you can move between the 2 states as the scattering is taking place, and that itself introduces another twist in the allowable range of momentum or energy that&#8217;s exchanged and will heavily suppress, in fact make it impossible for you to scatter depositing low energies. You have— there&#8217;s a finite amount of energy that you must exchange in order to include the process which requires you to move move from the 1 Higgs, you know, so Higgsino, sorry, Higgsino state to the higher Higgsino state. There is in fact a subsequent decay associated with that. Unfortunately, it happens way outside of our detector, so it&#8217;s not something we&#8217;re in a position, you know, to study. So yeah, the way— and this is, you mentioned propagators. So one of the reasons— so we look at this plot. I usually say to a student, if they put up a plot that has what&#8217;s this, 9 orders of magnitude on the vertical.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />I&#8217;ll usually say to them, look, that&#8217;s ridiculous. Physics doesn&#8217;t work. 9 orders of magnitude under most circumstances is a ridiculous amount of dynamic range to put in it. But this is a historic plot versus year of the sensitivity in terms of just normal— sorry, particle cross-section for dark matter on the particle— on the—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />On the—</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />targets that were terrestri— the subterrestrial, the underground, you know, event searches that we&#8217;ve been doing. And we have actually covered, in terms of results, nearly 8 orders of magnitude over the last 40 years. Why is it 8 orders of magnitude? Because that propagator you mentioned, actually, if it&#8217;s— if the particle that&#8217;s being exchanged actually has mass, then in the limit of the low momentum exchanges, you&#8217;re basically— you&#8217;re often dealing with a 1 over mass to the 4th 4th term for that propagator. So one order of magnitude uncertainty or increase in propagator can give you 4 orders of magnitude in terms of a cross-section or interaction probability or rate. So it turns out nature can deliver models really without trying very hard that span this enormous range of potential interaction sensitivities or cross-sections. So So, you know, you don&#8217;t automatically just say because you didn&#8217;t find it in the first 10 years of searching that that&#8217;s ruled out dark matter because this is a problem. In fact, the way I would say it is we had to flip it around. We had to try to make damn sure that for those of us who are involved in this kind of search, that the rate at which we improve the performance of the detectors, which is the sort of the size of the detectors and also their sense sensitivity and their ability to eliminate other potential background sources, that we have to keep improving that at a rate that is fast enough that we really can meet this challenge we&#8217;ve got here.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And, you know, one way I&#8217;ve put it in the past is that we are actually beating Moore&#8217;s Law, you know, because whereas I think— let&#8217;s see, Moore&#8217;s Law is what, 3 and a bit orders of magnitude every— no, sorry, it&#8217;s an order of magnitude every 10 years. I think we&#8217;ve been delivering an order of magnitude in sort of 2/3 that time.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So, you know, 6 years or so. So we&#8217;ve been going faster than— now, you know, obviously I&#8217;m— you know, this is dark matter sensitivity. But just to give you a sense of how rapidly we&#8217;ve been able to— and we&#8217;ve done this through changing the type of technology that we use and just being absolutely laser-focused on improving our ability to test new models, which is something we&#8217;ve done.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Actually, yeah, if you go back a slide.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Yes.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I mean, I just wanna point out a couple things. Your density of fascinating information per second exceeds any cross-sectional flux that we&#8217;d get from any particle.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />My apologies.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Except maybe the neutrino. But we&#8217;re gonna have a podcast after this, and I will refer people to it. But I wanted to get this video out first. But I can&#8217;t resist putting on my physicist podcast physicist hat And there&#8217;s a couple things I would say. You know, I joined Brown University in the basement where you are now, I believe, and when that curve says 1993. So I was pretty early with Charlie Elbaum. And they were working on helium-4, proton—</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Bob Lenoux.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, Lenoux.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Jim Scheidel, absolutely. Humphrey Maris.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Humphrey Maris, yeah, of course. How could I forget Humphrey? And I love those guys, but I went to Charlie Elbaum, the late, great— I love Charlie. He&#8217;s one of the reasons I went to Brown. And he wanted me to work in his lab. And he said, why don&#8217;t you go and talk to my student? I said, okay, great. So I went down to the dungeon, the basement there, you know, 144, below 144 Barrison-Holly. And I asked the graduate student and he was very enthusiastic and we spoke. And at the very end I said, oh, just one more thing, you know, just in terms of like, you know, career and so forth.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />How long have you been a grad student? And he said, 9 and a half years. And I just couldn&#8217;t believe it, Rick. And I felt like that took him, you know, to the &#8217;80s, you know, predating you in this field. And now we&#8217;re in, you know, you&#8217;re projecting out to 2040. I wanna push back with love and respect. And that is to say the following. Moore&#8217;s Law is, you know, probably a slacker compared to the progress here. But another dimension, you know, it&#8217;s created incredible technology that&#8217;s, not only aided physicists and philosophers alike, but now it&#8217;s taking over the world with transistors and software and computers and GPUs.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And we&#8217;ll get into that in the podcast. I want people to watch our discussion about AI in the classroom and beyond with one of the world&#8217;s great educators, Rick Gaetzkill. But Rick, tell me, I mean, how do we keep justifying it? I mean, the CMB world, I&#8217;m used to this. I&#8217;ve been looking for B-mode polarization, as you know, since the year 2000. And we haven&#8217;t detected primordial B-mode polarization, but we&#8217;ve made a lot of progress. We&#8217;ve detected things. This, if this holds up, this is the first detection, right? This is a huge breakthrough. But on the other hand, it&#8217;s sort of depressing as well because the length of the curve on the x-axis is so long.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />How do you, how do you, you know, maintain through, through the rain, through the fog, etc.? We&#8217;ll get into the neutrino fog, but, but how, how do you keep your spirits up, you know, and how do you maintain this? And what if, God forbid, you know, or I wanna say God forbid, I&#8217;ll just say nature might not care about what you want as a student or as a postdoc or as a professor. So what happens if this is just another, you know, upper limit?</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />I know, I mean, the critical thing about when you&#8217;re conducting scientific research is, I think, to make sure that it is well motivated and relevant. It&#8217;s, of course, there have been notable examples where I think people, because they were total mavericks, went off in a direction and that actually yielded something. Of course, we also know that the mavericks we never talk about are the ones who went off, did their own thing, and completely busted. So, you know, you always have to— you&#8217;ve got to be painfully aware of this post facto selection effect that occurs, you know, when you&#8217;re doing it. But I think, you know, when it comes to science, what we&#8217;re trying to do as a community is to, by making presentations, by producing results, and by talking about, you know, discussing it, it&#8217;s the question always is, is continuing a particular direction well motivated? Now, I, I think, you know, one of the, one of the areas, you know, saying, um, uh, you know, how many people does it actually take to do this type of work and how much resource does it take? In other words, I, I guess I, I know again you can say it&#8217;s relative, but honestly, this, this type work is relatively cheap. It&#8217;s— so it&#8217;s not— but it does give you this incredible leverage in terms of sweeping through or being able to test simultaneously a very large number of potential models in— of particle dark matter.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And—</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Yes. By staying sort of in touch with the rest of the community and looking at how the other results are going, I mean, one of the things is we both know, is extraordinary is the cold dark matter model, which, you know, for decades was sort of vying with a number of other potential models. It has survived and in fact has continued to make predictions and agree with new measurements at a level that I think few theories survive that long.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />It is remarkable. And as a consequence, that sort of continues to steal one— make it so critical that if there is cold dark matter, and by that, by just cold, the cold means non-relativistic dark matter. If there is this dominant term that we call cold dark matter there, trying to figure out what it is is critical because that&#8217;s the only way we&#8217;re going to actually understand. And this is where I&#8217;d love to say we&#8217;re going to understand the fundamental laws of physics, but of course it&#8217;s only one damn universe. We we get to play with. So what we actually end up doing is— or getting a direct explanation of our universe, since it is quite clear that, you know, you can imagine situations where nature itself is giving birth to a larger number of universes, and we only are lucky enough as experimentalists to get to do one in one. But nonetheless, what we&#8217;re hoping is that The— getting some of the properties of this cold dark matter, this dominant matter in the universe, will allow us to understand better how our universe is put together. Because at the moment, both the cold dark— the dark matter placeholder, if you like, and the dark energy placeholder, 95— that&#8217;s 95% of the composition of the universe.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />We do not know what the actual mechanism is what the actual composition is. And we&#8217;ve— we&#8217;re trying to answer this with the direct detection strategy and there are many experiments doing this, trying to look in other specific parameter spaces. But at the same time, we&#8217;re also trying to make dark matter in the Large Hadron Collider.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Uh-huh.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And we&#8217;re also making astrophysical measurements looking for decay products from the dark matter. So we&#8217;re trying to test this hypothesis. And honestly, 40 years— go back and look at history— 40 years is not a lot of time to be working on a problem. And I know you measured in human lifespan or what have you, you may say that&#8217;s rather dramatic, Rick, but it&#8217;s—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s only 4 of Charlie&#8217;s grad students&#8217; lifetimes.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Well, indeed. You know, that— and this is the way scientific research has to be conducted. If you— what you don&#8217;t do is you don&#8217;t stay on a question necessarily in a completely bloody-minded way because then that does lead to a sort of terrible sort of slowdown in rate of progress. You&#8217;re always questioning, are we actually— given the other data that&#8217;s coming in from other experiments, given what&#8217;s happening in terms of our evolving understanding of how the universe is put together, is looking for particle dark matter still well motivated? And I would say right now, given everything else we&#8217;re seeing. It&#8217;s extremely well motivated. And the fact that we&#8217;ve tested 8 orders of magnitude of models, as I say, unfortunately, because of the way the physics works, you know, in terms of the parameter space that nature could have picked, you know, we don&#8217;t get a sort of complete sweep. We&#8217;re still testing right today, and we will continue to test models that are extremely well motivated. And in a sense, because they are a little bit more exotic, a little bit more removed, when we get the answer of what the particle is, of course, that&#8217;s likely to really blow open a whole new— not new universe, but a whole new area of physics that right now is just one of a whole slew of possible models.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />But when we know which particular model nature has chosen, then— And, you know, one does sincerely, uh, look forward to it then leading to answering a whole slew of other questions. Yeah, that&#8217;s right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So, um, so you mentioned being a graduate student. Now, I, I, I did— I was a graduate student in the UK where they used to cut your funding off after 3 years. So, so, I mean, literally they did bang, 3 years, and I was living on bread and water for about the last 14 So not 40, 4, sorry, last 4 months of my studentship. Oh, sorry, end of studentship. I was— but this was a dark matter detector, which is only 10 grams or so. That was the scale, you know, back in the— We have essentially the same sensitivity in 7-ton detector as we did in a— or you call it 10-ton detector as we did in 10 grams. So that&#8217;s over a factor of a million. change.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And it&#8217;s really down to extraordinary sort of ingenuity of so many colleagues trying to understand how you can measure individual electrons and individual photons, which is what we do in the xenon detectors now.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And we— and in this case, we are trying to use those individual measurements, those single photon and single electron measurements and combining them together to say that yes, we have evidence of some kind of interaction happening in the middle of our detector that really couldn&#8217;t be put there by conventional backgrounds or conventional sort of radioactivity, but are instead due to the occasional interaction of a dark matter particle. So I should— actually, I&#8217;m going to skip this. So let me talk about SURF and our detector. So we&#8217;re operating at an old— what was previously a gold mine. you know, up until just the turn of the millennium, you know, 2000— just at the beginning of the 2000s. And we repurposed a significant amount of the infrastructure for science here in the U.S., you know, and through the support of Denny Sanford and the state of South Dakota and Mike Rounds, who was then the governor, we&#8217;ve been able to— and all the subsequent support, and of course the Department of Energy, who&#8217;ve been absolutely critical to to, you know, making this laboratory, you know, function so well that we&#8217;re operating this detector, the LUX-ZEPLIN detector, which for scale is about, you know, your height. It&#8217;s about my height. You know, it&#8217;s sort of one— just over 1.5 meters in terms of the active central volume of xenon.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />It&#8217;s about 7 tons of xenon. Xenon is— Xenon is actually the rarest of the gases in the air you&#8217;re breathing in right now.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Every 1 out of 10 million atoms that you&#8217;re breathing in right now, which means a very large number of them are in fact xenon. And xenon has a number of sort of useful properties, but the main one that we&#8217;re exploiting is in fact that it is very— can be made very pure and is very low in intrinsic radioactivity.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yes.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />It&#8217;s also quite dense when it&#8217;s cooled to about -100 degrees centigrade, so it becomes a liquid. It&#8217;s about 3 grams per cubic centimeter, so 3 times that of water. And it can be purified so that light has a 10-meter-plus mean free path traveling through the xenon, and also electrons that are liberated in the middle of the xenon do not immediately combine. We can simply drift them using fields, electric fields, and pull them to the surface. And that makes for an ideal detector. The actual process where a particle interaction happens and scintillates, you scintillate. You know, everybody&#8217;s fairly scintillating.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s—</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />the trouble is you can&#8217;t get the light or the ionization out of you because you&#8217;re far too dirty and you&#8217;re far too opaque.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Hey, speak for yourself.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Well, I&#8217;m definitely extremely opaque, as my students will tell you. But, but, so whereas the xenon has this fascinating condensed matter physics that a number of the noble elements have, where it emits light after excitation, it emits light at a wavelength that is actually— has a very low interaction probability with the material itself, so you can get the signal, the signal out. So that&#8217;s what we exploit. We put photomultiplier tubes around the outside and we look and count individual photons. And we put a field on and we count individual electrons jumping out of the liquid surface. And the combination of that allows us to tell the position of where an interaction is and how much energy is deposited. And as you might imagine, in the middle of this very large amount of xenon, it is very difficult for regular particles to get in because their mean free paths are typically measured in a centimeters. So trying to get into something which is 150 centimeters across, all the conventional interactions tend to be confined around the edge.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Now, the only slight exception to that is there are one or two radioactive isotopes that will dissolve or can potentially— do, sorry, do dissolve in xenon. So, you know, one of the areas where our teams have spent a lot of time on is trying to make sure that as little of, for instance, the trace gas krypton, which can have or does have a radioactive isotope associated with, or radon, which is one I think everybody&#8217;s familiar with because you get work done to survey radon in your basement. It turns out that the same radon daughters that you worry about with of excess radon in your basement are also capable of producing events in the middle of our detector. So we work very hard to drive— also to drive down the dissolved radon and krypton levels amongst others. I mention those 2 because those are the ones that end up being the most challenging to remove, partly because their chemistry, of course, is noble. Those are examples of other noble gases and therefore they—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />They&#8217;re inert.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />They are more challenging chemically to remove than many other forms of contamination. So I mentioned I should pick up the speed a little bit, but just get to the event. But let me just show you. So this is just time measured in microseconds. So from here to here is around 1,000 microseconds or a millisecond. And this is just— this is the lowest— these are This example here is the lowest of all events that we see. And for conventional dark matter, this is often the regime in which you&#8217;re going. And we actually see neutrinos.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />This type of event I&#8217;m showing you here could be very—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You say lowest, you mean lowest energy or lowest—</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Lowest energy. Thank you. Sorry. Absolutely right. Lowest energy. So we&#8217;ve actually, for instance, seen boron-8 neutrinos scattering, coming out of the sun, scattering in our detector, depositing very small amounts of energy. this S1, which is a primary light scintillation labeled. That is just a few photons that are caught by the photomultiplier tubes associated with the initial interaction.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And then we wait of the order of 800 microseconds and there&#8217;s this sharp— this taller S2 event, which is again light, but it&#8217;s light being generated from an electron. Electrons are fascinating. They— electrons, in xenon, when they drift through liquid, they scatter but non-radiatively. And critically, they don&#8217;t recombine because we&#8217;ve made the xenon very pure. So there&#8217;s a very low cross-section for being trapped, if you like, or scattered. The electron gets to the liquid surface, we have enough field to encourage the electron to jump out of the liquid. In gas, it is still drifting because of applied fields that we have, but now it&#8217;s radiative. The scattering of the electron is now radiative, so the entire trace of the electron lights up, and we measure the photons associated with that track of the electron for the last sort of, you know, 20 millimeters or so that it propagates in the gas.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And this combination of an initial pulse of light and the subsequent pulse of light from the electron arriving at the liquid surface and entering the gas makes for an absolutely fantastic— we call it a time projection chamber, which sounds very exotic.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, it does.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />It&#8217;s just saying that the drift time of the electron and the location of where the electron hits the surface and lights up like a Christmas tree, that&#8217;s the projection bit, that we can actually infer what the original XYZ or Z location of the interaction was. And you can do this in 7 tons. It&#8217;s bloody, you know, it&#8217;s quite fantastical. You know, we have, you know, the physical scale is 1.5 meters, both laterally diameter and drift. And we&#8217;re able to do it at energy— we&#8217;re able to measure energy depositions that are at the keV level and then counting, you know, in this sort of quantum world we live in, we are counting individual electrons, counting individual photons. And, you know, so the students, postdocs, you know, worked incredibly hard to basically characterize exactly how these signals are generated and how they depend on the nature of the original particle interaction. So I must pick up. So this slide on the top right, what it was just designed to show is along the bottom is that S1, the primary light.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />On the vertical is the is the secondary light, the S2, due to the electron. So effectively, the ratio or the amount of S2 light versus S1 light, it turns out not only does it give you the position, the TPC part of it, but actually the amount of ionization you have relative to the primary scintillation light actually tells you about the nature of the original interaction. And this is enormously important because dark matter, we are looking for the most part, although we do have side searches. I think, but for the most part, we&#8217;re looking for nuclear recoils from the dark matter coming in and interacting with the nuclear— You mentioned the business of the mass inequity, that the non-equal masses make— so an electron could, in principle, scatter from a dark matter, but you get so little that the masses are so different in many scenarios we&#8217;re looking at that it&#8217;s a very poor exchange. So primarily it&#8217;s It&#8217;s the dark matter scattering from the nucleus. And the ratio, the amount of S2 signal versus S1, which is the orange— we&#8217;re using neutrons as a proxy for dark matter in this plot— that the ratio of the S2 over S1 is also telling us about the nature of the original interaction. So since most mundane backgrounds tend to be of an electron recoil type, which is characterized by the tritium betas on this particular plot, their ratio is some— of S2 over S1 is somewhat different from the ratio of S2 over S1 that you get for neutrons. And this holds, as you&#8217;ll see, not just at the lowest energies, but even up to really very substantial energies, hundreds of keV, and that&#8217;s of course where we&#8217;ve ended up looking for—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So just to summarize, Rick, the S1 signal, the nature of that is what exactly? It&#8217;s coming from the dark matter, putative dark matter particle, or any particle that will interact weakly, and then it&#8217;s it&#8217;s from the recoil, right? It&#8217;s a recoil. They&#8217;re both recoil, and one is nuclear, one is electron.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />That&#8217;s right. So both of these processes, we&#8217;re down at low energies, we&#8217;re down at sort of 10 keV or less in this particular plot, which is— which for anybody who&#8217;s worked with detectors will tell you is a very small amount of energy. And typically these recoils are happening over distances that are just measured in, you know, sort of— well, for the nuclear recoil, 10 nanometers, 50 nanometers. It all happens in this very short range. For the electrons at these sort of energies, you&#8217;re still talking about submicron recall. So you&#8217;re really measuring recalls in both cases in the nanometer scale. And as a consequence, it&#8217;s— what&#8217;s fascinating is that the— and to do dark matter, as my thesis had a lot of, for instance, condensed matter in it, I was trying to use superconductors at that time to detect dark matter. Here we have xenon.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />But the condensed matter physics is— you get to study it in this exquisite detail in these energy regimes that often we&#8217;re the first to sort of really go in and look.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And what we&#8217;re seeing and we have to characterize it at highly detailed way. We have to characterize what would happen if 10 keV or say a 5 keV nuclear recoil or a 5 keV electron recoil was to go into xenon and deposit its energy along these very short tracks. How many ionization electrons are going to be liberated or how many internal excitons are forming in the xenon itself which then de-excite in a rather exotic way, in fact, forming these sort of double dimers that then emit photons. And all this is happening— I should— I didn&#8217;t mention this before, but all this is happening in the VU— what&#8217;s known as VUV, vacuum ultraviolet, about 175 nanometers. It&#8217;s so named because those ultraviolet that is that short doesn&#8217;t travel through air. You have to pull a vacuum in order to allow it. It turns out you can actually get 175-nanometer radiation or photons through xenon itself. Xenon doesn&#8217;t want to interact with those even though it generated those photons.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />It turns out it&#8217;s very low probability of reabsorbing them, which is critical when you&#8217;re building these massive detectors. You don&#8217;t want them eating their own signal, basically.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So, yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />We, we, so Brown, like many other groups, we, we actually built the sort of, uh, these 2, uh, 250 PMT arrays that, that, you know, span about 1.5 meters. And this, this is going back some time now, but back in 2019, a whole slew of students, undergraduates, graduate students, uh, postdocs, all worked to assemble under very clean conditions. And then you— we shipped everything to the— to, to, to the Sanford Lab. And then by about 2021, so sort of coming out of COVID we were commissioning the detector. And what I&#8217;m talking about here is one of multiple data analyses we&#8217;ve done. We&#8217;ve done more conventional dark matter searches, but we&#8217;ve also looked very specifically in a dataset we took between sort of mid-&#8217;23 and early &#8217;24, which spans about 250 20 live days of data looking for dark matter events at, as you&#8217;ll see, a higher energy regime than is usual for the searches. Now, it turns out that there are some challenges associated with doing that and that&#8217;s why it&#8217;s taken us a sort of couple of years to get to this point of actually saying we can estimate with some certainty, as you must, not only what the efficiency of seeing dark matter events are, which which that&#8217;s, relatively speaking, relatively easy. The bit that you&#8217;ve got to quantify is what&#8217;s the chance of more conventional interactions faking a dark matter signal in that area.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And that&#8217;s something we&#8217;ve spent a lot of time not just trying to understand, but also you have to quantify it. Because the degree of certainty or the statistical significance you associate with a result is often based on what you are able to estimate is the— how unlikely is it that a background event could have faked your signal? And that&#8217;s— people often talk about sigma confidence levels and that&#8217;s— it&#8217;s from that process or that likelihood of, is this a— is this dark matter signal versus likelihood of a more mundane— I don&#8217;t know why I call them mundane because I can tell you the background has to be bloody exotic to fake this stuff, but it&#8217;s an exotic more conventional particle somehow getting into your detector and interacting in a way that looks like a, you know, the dark matter signal. So we— again, you know, as you— I&#8217;m sure you would understand, we had to do an immense amount of internal analysis but also discussion and presenting and re-presenting and reassessing what we felt best categorized our understanding of the behavior of backgrounds in our detector to convince ourselves that if we see events, and we have, we saw one event, that is in the region where we expect dark matter, but what&#8217;s the chance of it just being due to background? And I think again, I&#8217;m concerned about the time, so let me just It&#8217;s okay.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I think we&#8217;ll finish this today and then we&#8217;ll go on. We&#8217;ll have the podcast. I&#8217;m coming out to Brown. I&#8217;m on Stefan Alexander&#8217;s Theoretical Physics Center. I&#8217;m on their board of directors. So, I&#8217;m supposed to come out there. So, we&#8217;ll do an in-person review and we&#8217;ll also do in the lab. So, take as much time as you want now.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I&#8217;ve got another 20 minutes if you do.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Okay.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Okay.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Well, right. So, What we&#8217;re looking at right now is a conventional WIMP search from LZ. I&#8217;m picking the one in &#8217;24 because it— we have had subsequent results from there. But I guess the key thing I&#8217;m, you know, we need to look at is on the horizontal scale in the gray is energies, and this says 0.8 keV EE, 5 keV nuclear recoil. So that— what that is doing is telling you that for this particular search, that we are looking at extremely low energies, events that are extremely low energies, a few— well, less than 1 keV in electron equivalent around 5—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />it&#8217;s—</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />the reason you have to talk about nuclear recoil and electron recoil is because they— the amount of signal, the amount of S1 light and S2 light that is generated is somewhat different for a given particle of a given energy. But This was an early example. We actually pushed our threshold down to about, yeah, a couple of keV nuclear recoil in later search. But as I say, this particular plot is sort of, I think, easier for somebody to understand. So these events up here are conventional electron recoil events primarily being produced by residual amounts of radioactivity decaying in the middle of the detector and that&#8217;s actually shown here. This is your radius of the detector and this is just the Z or the Z height, the drift thing. And you can see this sort of smattering of events. And this is taken over the same 220 days that we&#8217;re going to talk about for the, you know, for the high-energy analysis.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />But you can see these events are fairly uniformly spread out. What that&#8217;s telling you is actually they&#8217;re far less likely to be due to radiations coming in from the outside. These sort of gray regions actually where you see a much larger number of points, those are the typical radiation coming in from the inside that all gets stopped near the edge of the detector, but we have residual amounts of radioactivity dissolved. But because they&#8217;re electron recoils, not nuclear recoils, they have a higher S2 over S1. It&#8217;s actually this magenta— it&#8217;s not magenta, purple. This purple region here is where we expect dark matter to appear. Now, you can actually see one or two events sort of getting into this region here. And in fact, that&#8217;s because the separation between the electron recoil band up here and the nuclear recoil band down here is— while the separation is pretty good, still at about the sort of 1% or fraction of a percent level, events are sort of getting down into this region, and we have to— we take account of that.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So when we&#8217;re looking for candidate nuclear recoil events in this region, which is where you expect the WIMP nuclear recoils to appear, we do have to say there&#8217;s a competition between more conventional backgrounds just leaking down into this region and WIMPs. So in this particular result, there is nothing that stands out as an exceptional number of nuclear recoil events. nuclear recoil events that would be consistent with WIMPs. So what we did is we ended up just eliminating models that would have put more than a certain number of events into the— and as the joke goes, we were— we still are, I think, world-leading. Yeah, we are world-leading for seeing nothing in this sort of 9, and in fact down to about 5 GeV mass range because of the scale of LZ and because of the how long we&#8217;ve run it and because it&#8217;s working very well, we&#8217;re able to look for, you know, models in this low-energy regime and do so in a way that, you know, is very sensitive. But as I say, we&#8217;re not seeing a buildup of low-energy nuclear recoil events. So what we did is we&#8217;re using the same data to look for an interaction between the nucleus and you know, chi here, which represents the dark matter particle. And this is, if you like, sort of the conventional type of interaction where you get coherent scattering across all the nuclei.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />But that really is the sort of vanilla version. You&#8217;re summing up all these nuclei and you&#8217;re assuming because it&#8217;s very low energy interaction that the interaction itself is coherent. Meaning that the phase, for those people following quantum mechanics, when you&#8217;re attempting to do scattering amplitudes, Of course, as you may remember, that your momentum exchange as you go in, interact with one particular nuclei, one point sort of exchange interaction, and you come out, there&#8217;s a certain P associated with that. There&#8217;s a certain— and that momentum exchange, if you like, has an amplitude and also a phase associated with that. And if you move location, if you go to different nuclei, If the amount of momentum you&#8217;re exchanging is small and therefore the wavelength associated with that is, you know, and certainly principle, one way of picturing that in your head. But, you know, if the characteristic inverse of the momentum, which is a distance, if the distance is large, that means that the phases across all of those, all of that nuclei scattering are all very similar. So when you add them in order to get the overall, you know, amplitude squared, the sort of matrix element or the cross-section calculation, coherence. Phases are all very similar, they all add together.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />But if you ramp up the attempted momentum exchange, that corresponds to decreasing the wavelength of the— associated with that wavelength, or what it means is that the phase is now varying much more rapidly across the size of the nucleus. the, you know, it&#8217;s Fermi level, 10 to the minus 15 meter, you know, sort of Fermi level scales at these nuclei. And that change in phase means that when you start co-adding the terms, they are now not adding as cleanly together. They&#8217;re actually starting to interfere with one another. And it produces a very rapid suppression, which is shown here, this is just interaction rate versus— this is actually recoil energy, not momentum, but it&#8217;s— this is non-relativistic stuff, so you just say p squared over 2m effectively, where your m has to be the reduced mass. But effectively, you&#8217;re just— this is just larger momentum as you go up in recoil energy. And what we see is while the rates are very large when you have full coherence for small momentum exchanges or small energy of recoils, you rapidly suppress as you get to 30, 40 keV. You&#8217;ve killed your signal and that&#8217;s— it&#8217;s not because the WIMPs carry enough energy to give the new— to give the xenon a kick.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />It&#8217;s that the process of attempting to exchange the momentum, that the Q squared as we say or the the momentum exchange, the wavelength associated with that is now getting smaller than the size of the WIMP— sorry, than the xenon nucleus, and it&#8217;s becoming— the phase is changing rapidly across the nucleus and the terms are now interfering with one another and you&#8217;ve suppressed the interaction rate. But the reason is we&#8217;ve failed to, if you like, apply any imagination because we are taking what is sometimes referred to as the absolute vanilla of all possible interactions, which is just this scalar-like interaction where it&#8217;s just, you know, WIMP in, WIMP out, point-like effectively interaction with a nucleon. You add them all up and you get a total sort of interaction strength. And we do sometimes talk about a slightly more exotic version of that, which is called spin-dependent, but it turns out even that is Although, introduction to gamma— sorry, we haven&#8217;t got time to talk about gamma matrices. You have to develop— okay, so if you&#8217;re— what we&#8217;re going to do here is we&#8217;re going to start trying to generalize the way in which the dark matter particle and the nucleon, these individual nucleons. And one of the ways you&#8217;re going to do that within a relativistic theory is you want to start including the fact that these particles And for anybody who&#8217;s slog— and it is fascinating. I shouldn&#8217;t call it a slog. I always found it quite entertaining.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />But if you&#8217;re going to develop a framework to try to understand what the coupling strength is, you now have to have your particles represented by something that actually— the spin are in the jargon, but something that actually gives a little extra degree of freedom which is associated with the spin. And we&#8217;re going to do that for the nucleon, and we&#8217;re going to do that for the dark matter particle, and then you have to figure out the way in which the particle interaction strength between the two, how that is going to— Now, I guess what I should emphasize is, relatively speaking, we&#8217;re not— we&#8217;re still trying to look at this in a very general sense. And you&#8217;re going to hear this phrase effective field theory. We&#8217;re not trying to take this apart under a specific Bose, a specific gauge particle, a specific gauge. We&#8217;re just trying to generalize and say, Let&#8217;s, you know, what&#8217;s a very simple interaction that includes the spin terms but doesn&#8217;t have any other additional sort of complications? And the fact that we call this L15 may begin to tell you that actually we&#8217;ve just skipped over a whole load of other possible interactions and that&#8217;s what we can do. And I think I should— let me put this slide up in this form. So it is perfectly natural when you&#8217;re talking about particle interactions to say that this interaction strength the effective field theory that&#8217;s describing them could include a momentum exchange term. And this is now the strength of the interaction.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So I&#8217;m not trying to do— I&#8217;m not thinking about how phase coherence is occurring across the nucleus.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />What instead I&#8217;m doing now is saying that the point-like, you know, if you like, interaction between the dark matter particle and the nucleon, that it turns out it actually cares about what the value of the momentum is exchanged. And if we give that a q squared or a q to the 4th, which are both acceptable, they&#8217;re Lorentz invariant, they don&#8217;t violate— you can put it in without violating sort of any reasonable relativistic particle theory. But having put in terms like that, If it&#8217;s proportional to what&#8217;s going like q squared or q to the 4th, of course it&#8217;s getting stronger as the momentum exchange is larger. So we&#8217;re in a regime now where we&#8217;ve lost coherence across the entire nucleus, so that&#8217;s suppressed it, but the actual interaction strength between the dark matter particle and one of the nucleons is actually being increased like q to the 4th or q squared or q to the 4th. And because of that— So you&#8217;re saying that the interaction strength is actually increasing? That would mean that when we go to look for dark matter signature, if, you know, ultimately what you then have to explain is why your specific dark matter model would favor, you know, this L10 as shown on this graph, the L10 type interaction against an L1 interaction, which is much more simple, but you&#8217;d have to come up with a reason, a specific reason for why that&#8217;s being suppressed. if the interaction was dependent primarily on L10 effective field interactions, that those would manifest themselves at higher Q squared or Q to the 4th, and that&#8217;s higher recoil energies. So that&#8217;s— and this, you know, this work was proposed both by my colleague Gigi Fan and Matt Reese, you know, back in, I think, 2010 or something like that, and also Wick I think Haxton and collaborators have studied this also in great detail, and I think they really laid out this sort of effective— all the effective interactions, Lagrangians in the language, of what you could have. But it is important to test all of those.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Is that to rule out, like, look elsewhere in other Well— Or is that on the theory side, calibrating the theory side?</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />It&#8217;s because we don&#8217;t know what the dark matter particle is, we don&#8217;t actually know what the preferred Lagrangian or preferred interaction is. So while it is fair to say that an L1, or, you know, the basic scalar-style interaction would be natural because it can include coherence, which often makes it dominate. It is also fair to say that because our detectors now are, what is it, 8 orders of magnitude more sensitive than when we originally started, they are more than comfortable probing for these more exotic Lagrangians. Now, the fact that we haven&#8217;t seen anything in the past 40 years means that nature somehow has decided to suppress the conventional spin-independent because we would have, you know, we might well have seen interactions much earlier on because of the significant coherence enhancement. But also what&#8217;s now happening is because we have these massive detectors that with some perfect— with some reasonably natural assumptions about particle masses and the gauge particle masses, you could— and you could— we could well be in a situation where dark matter is choosing to not— or is actively suppressed Interacting through the sort of L1 Lagrangian, but is, say, favoring an L10 interaction. And these plots here— let&#8217;s see, I should focus on the L10 here, but— sorry, that&#8217;s L15 actually. Sorry, L10&#8217;s here. But sorry, this is just the mass— sorry, this is the recoil energy range.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And I guess these plots are way too complicated for a talk like this, but one&#8217;s putting them up just really to show how you don&#8217;t just automatically get this major enhancement at low energies, which is the more conventional plot. What you actually see is a dominant preference for high-energy interact— higher-energy interactions. And as I say, because of the scale of the— Now there is a— and this is different. You can also talk about inelastic scattering where in this case the dark matter comes in 2 states that are just— are not quite degenerate. They&#8217;re separated by some energy delta and that this does— this also is a mechanism whereby as a dark matter particle comes in, if its primary interaction is actually to be excited from one state to a nearby If the energy separation there is measured in hundreds of keV, it turns out that that would have a very direct effect on the rate of particle interactions that we&#8217;d see in these dark matter direct detection events. And there are, again, supersymmetry models, the one with a sort of Higgs-xeno doublet, with separations where the overall mass of the particles are of the order of 1, 1.1 TeV. So, sort of range, and that the separation is measured between the 2 Higgs Zeno masses is a few hundred keV. And for instance, that could be consistent with the type of higher energy preference.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And that&#8217;s the doublet aspect of it. I feel like we buried the lead maybe a little bit. I mean, the mass of this is quite large, right?</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Well, that is of course one of the things that, you know, for instance, all the LHC searching that we&#8217;ve been doing over the last What is it, 20 years now? You know, we&#8217;ve been sweeping up there, you know, in terms of production in mass. So in many cases what we&#8217;ve been doing is saying that as natural as we might have originally thought it was to produce supersymmetry down at lower mass scales, having searched for production of particles in there in many models that in order to, you know, to be consistent with the non-observation of many of the searches we&#8217;ve done, that would suggest higher mass particles. Now, it turns out, of course, that actually if you go as high as sort of 1.1 TeV in this sort of double Higgsino style model, that&#8217;s actually very challenging reaching those kinds of center of mass— oh, sorry, reaching that kind of production particle. But so this is one that— this is a model that— model So you&#8217;re saying that the Higgs is not the only particle that could be that produced? would be consistent with the direct detection thing, but is very much more challenging to actually see in— even with the high luminosity LHC. But this is only, you know, this is just one model that happens to be consistent with the one particle event we&#8217;ve seen. And of course, it&#8217;s so early days that, you know, you don&#8217;t— you know, you do this in order to make— help you begin to understand how this might work into various models. You&#8217;re not saying that this is the definitive model. That would be the wrong way to ever look at a single event search.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So, yeah, I should— this particular plot, I was just trying to show you the contrast between at low energies where we usually look for dark matter and now— sorry, this orange and this purple thing, those are nuclear recoil sources, neutron sources that we put directly on the LHC. the detector. And what you&#8217;re seeing is a band which interestingly, the red band is actually moving away from the electron recoil band which is shown here. This is an S1 versus S2 plot again. And so we have, you know, nominally what is very clear separation at these higher energies between nuclear recoil response and electron recoil response. And of course, from the point of view of a single event, that means that having a single nuclear recoil appear in the middle of a detector, which, you know, we&#8217;re very confident is not due to a neutron because to get a neutron that deep into our detector, given the cross-sections for regular neutrons, is high enough to mean that it really can&#8217;t get that deep in, you know, makes it so powerful when we are looking for, you know, events in the center of the detector. So, yeah, I should— I was— we designed LZ— what I was trying to do with these slides, but we designed LZ to be very good at doing this, to look for very occasional events and to make damn sure that this wasn&#8217;t being produced by a more conventional detector. So for instance, we have an outer detector which is loaded with gadolinium and is scintillating, which is very specific.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Fine.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />designed to catch neutrons either on the way into our detector or on the way out if they say they were generated by a piece of material inside the construction material of LZ. That gadolinium is very opaque to neutrons and lights and produces 8 MeV, a very high-energy burst of light or energy when that capture takes place. So we&#8217;re able So we do see neutrons trying to get into our detector, but firstly, the absolute rate is extremely low, and secondly, we&#8217;re able to very cleanly characterize them by using the multi-layers of our detector in order to sort of tag them. And this is something people have worked very hard on to make work so effectively, and is in fact— we use this to convince ourselves that we&#8217;re seeing. So this is actually the science result. So this is the nuclear recoil band in the red and the blue is the electron recoil band and this is the S1 primary light signal and the S2 signal. And we&#8217;re actually now up to around 250 keV nuclear recoil. So the original WIMP search was all happening down here.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />We&#8217;re now looking at a much broader energy range. But because we&#8217;re saying potentially, you know, the Lagrangian or the operator, you know, the nature of the coupling could be allowing much more of the energy of the WIMP to be transferred to the nucleus. And this is the physics result after 220 days and we unblinded the data, although it turns out we&#8217;re not claiming this as a blinded search just simply because post facto we went back and looked at the way we blinded and we— we&#8217;re trying to be conservative. We&#8217;re arguing that a really smart researcher in our group could have effectively probably told that— statistically figured out the difference between injected salt, as it&#8217;s called, that we use for blinding, and possible event. And so, as such, we&#8217;ve decided not to call it a blind analysis, although I, you know, I&#8217;ll emphasize that a lot of the cuts that we use were effectively fixed very early on in the analysis process in a relatively simple So we&#8217;re— the sort of things that salting and blinding is designed to avoid, which is biases in terms of cuts, we&#8217;ve been able to, because of the way the detector works, really try to stay away from making any marginal cuts in the data. And so when we finally opened up and unblinded, you know, the data, although as I say, we&#8217;re not calling it a blind analysis, we found we got left with one actual event. in the data, and it lies close to the nuclear recoil band, which is statistically where you expect nuclear recoils to occur, but it is way up here. There is an event down here that is actually expected.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />That&#8217;s due to accidental coincidences, and it turns out that at low energies, in many of our previous papers we discussed this, one of the backgrounds that we have to fight against at low energies is just accidental coincidences of a single S1 and a single S2 light. It turns out that for the higher energy region, that&#8217;s not really— it&#8217;s not a dominant background source. As we&#8217;ve gone through the analysis, it&#8217;s the most significant contributor to backgrounds are actually high-energy gamma rays. that are potentially multiply scattering in the detector. And that&#8217;s something we spent a lot of resource making sure that we could understand it, model it as well as we could, and produce some kind of statistical estimates— or not some kind of— produce well-developed statistical estimates of— And this is the weird thing. This is 220 days, but effectively with our simulations, we end up having to run for the equivalent of sort of 220,000 days. So what&#8217;s that?</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So can you translate the x and y axes? I mean, I&#8217;m sure they mean a lot to you, but to the audience, what—</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Yeah, no, no, sorry. So this is our standard S1, the primary light plot. And this is the secondary light, or the light that comes from the ionization, the S2. So each one of these dots is a single event that occurred in the science data that we ran for 220 days, 220 live days. And down here, these events tend to be typically dominated by intrinsic electron recoil events occurring from beta, from low-energy contaminants. producing electron recoils. We also see evidence of specific gamma energies. Again, it turns out that when we&#8217;re calibrating the detector for— that there are short-lived radioactive excitations that occur from the neutrons.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />For this type of work, they— the energy deposition remains sort of well contained in this sort of S1, S2 plane. So we&#8217;re comfortable that those types of events are not leaking or not producing events that are further down. But what we do in the paper spend quite some significant amount of time talking about is what happens if you have a high-energy gamma ray generated near the walls of your detector from residual contamination and that that gamma ray tries to get into your detector. Now, since that&#8217;s going to scatter from electrons. Typically, that would produce events in the band here. But I think as I should show you here is— so that red line corresponds to a gamma ray trying to get in, doing a single interaction and then leaving. That would be a single interaction. Now, what if it scatters twice? What happens is first interaction here, second interaction here.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />You get 2 lots of S1 light. The particle is so quick to propagate between those 2 vertices that effectively you can barely see any difference in the time of the S1. It&#8217;s 10 nanoseconds when we&#8217;re typically reading our S1 events over 100 nanoseconds or more. But the S2s, because the The delay time here between the S1 and S2 is related to how long it takes the electrons to drift and because they&#8217;re actually only moving millimeters per microsecond, the electrons, that you actually get physical separation between the 2 S2s. But because you can see the 2 S2 signals arriving when the electron— small number of electrons actually reaches the top, you can clearly see 2— that there must have been 2 vertices. So nobody&#8217;s going to— you&#8217;re not going to confuse that with the dark matter.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />No.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Particle. So, but, you know, only the paranoid survive in this game. So you have to start thinking about, yes, but what could possibly remove one of those S2 vertices? I— there&#8217;s still 2 vertices, but something eats the, the, uh, these ionization signals. So that&#8217;s what we call an MSSI, which is just simply multi-scatter single ionization. So what, what What removes? Well, you know, in some senses, we have a significant challenge because in order to apply a field between— to get electrons to drift upwards, that&#8217;s effectively a positive field, if you like, pointing downwards. And we achieve that with a, you know, positive potential on the gate relative to a negative potential here down on the cathode. Now that cathode is actually running, you know, at say 100 kilovolts, minus 100 kilovolts. We&#8217;ve now got it, we&#8217;ve now got to get rid of that high voltage before we get down to the PMTs which are running much closer to the ground.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So we have what we call a reverse field region here and that means the electrons actually drift downwards and because they drift downwards you can&#8217;t detect them. They just get lost.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />So this is all, I like to say, you know, with Feynman&#8217;s permission, you know, the first rule of physics is not to fool yourself, and the second rule is you&#8217;re the easiest person to fool. So these are all ways that you&#8217;re guarding against deceiving yourself, right, Rick?</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />That&#8217;s exactly right. Now, you know, you might look at this and say, well, right, so how does this lead to the problem? And the problem is sort of shown here. Because you have 2 lots of S1, then you basically say that— say the first event is sort of here, and then the second event adds this amount of S1. light gets you to here. But under normal circumstances, the 2 lots of S2 here would also just boost you up and keep you, you know, essentially inside this sort of electron recoil region. Also, you&#8217;d see the fact that there are 2 bangs in the S2 and that would clearly tell you you had multi-site. But imagine one of them goes away, then what you&#8217;re seeing is just 2 lots of S1 but only 1 lot of S2, which is getting you— brings you down into this region. So what you have to do is to make sure that you understand what the rate at which such events, multi-site single ionization, or, you know, an S2 loss, is going to occur.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />But in order to understand this, you have to be simulating or thinking about events that are not occurring necessarily at the 1 in 220-day level, because we&#8217;re actually trying to suppress this. We are thinking about whether these events would happen in a time period of sort of quarter of a million days, 220,000 days. Why? Because, you know, going with the Feynman theory, you know, you have to realize that even if something is, you know, if something&#8217;s going to creep into your data, it can, because there are so many ways that things can possibly creep into your data, you have to be prepared to allow for the idea that some very rare mistake, mistaken identification might have occurred. So you have a process which, while being incredibly rare at the level of about 1 in 220,000 days, which is, you know, way beyond the amount of time we&#8217;re running this detector, but it&#8217;s the kind of timescale we have to simulate the detector, that one of these events randomly fluctuated, you know, happened to— bad luck— fluctuated into the detector. Detector. And it&#8217;s doing that kind of work and understanding the sort of details of the response that it was necessary for us to do in order to make any kind of quantitative claim concerning what the likelihood, if you like, you know, of this event being due to a misidentification. And we— and it turns out that about the level of 1 in 200, so that&#8217;s 1 in, what, 500 million— half a million days. But at the level of 1.5 million days, there is— we believe there is a rate of these MSSI, this misidentification of a thing.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />It&#8217;s, you know, 1 in 200 level of such an event sort of fluctuating in. I&#8217;m actually being sort of quite conservative because you mentioned earlier that there&#8217;s a thing called look away— or sorry, look elsewhere effect.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So for you and I to be discussing this event You know, neither of us ahead of this result said we were going to see an event here. So actually what you have to say statistically is that an event could have cropped up over a much larger range of possible events. And you have to, when you&#8217;re to make sense of the statistics of how significant an event is within that sort of signal, broad signal band, given that we have a large number of potential physics models that could generate dark matter recoils over that range.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Mm-hmm.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And because of the way that the background physics, the fluctuations occur, we actually, as, you know, people are familiar with the statistics, we started out a local significance that was in excess of 3 sigma, but by the time you include look elsewhere effects, and, you know, that sort of conservative couching that we have to do, that you end up with about a 1 in— sorry, 2.6 sigma, which I think is 1 in a couple hundred chance of you and I having a discussion over what is effectively a background event having fluctuated.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You quoted it as a range of confidence intervals, which is a little bit unusual. Can you explain that, Rick? Why is there a range between 2.6 and 3.4? What determines that range, and what would have to happen before the collaboration wave function collapses in regards to the effect.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So physicists, we&#8217;re very— what&#8217;s the word— very rigorous, very honest with ourselves. The only real language, as I always have to remind students, adjectives don&#8217;t cut it. You have to associate quantitative numbers with things. So what you would do in this case is you&#8217;ve got one event. And what— so locally, if you like, locally in that energy region, what you would start off by doing is looking at every possible mechanism you can come up with that might deposit an event in that location you&#8217;re seeing. And we looked at a lot of possible mechanisms, and most of them are— it&#8217;s vanishingly small that they could, you know, they could in any way accidentally or randomly create an event in that region. The MSSI effect was the one that ended up sort of leading in terms of the probability. Still a very small probability.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So because that probability was at the sort of level of, I guess it&#8217;s about 1 in 1,000 or something like that, that is associated with a 3.4 sigma. Talking about a sort of 3— Actually, it&#8217;s less than 1,000. It&#8217;s probably a few thousand, 1 in a few thousand. But you then, as I say, you have to go back and say, well, yes, but in order for this event to— an event to be interesting, it could have been occurring over quite a broad range of possible recoil energies. So, and then you end up forming a sort of global likelihood. And here is where it can get a little— not— I don&#8217;t think subjective is the right word, but—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Subjective.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />the word, but there are different ways of presenting such an analysis. And one of the reasons we published is because we&#8217;re looking forward to getting input from people as to whether they feel our global significance is conducted in a way that they think is most natural for this. And there is— it is definitely one of those areas where there&#8217;s no absolute, you know, this is the only way to do it, people. You have to, you know, you have to end up deciding exactly how you&#8217;re going to statistically combine all these possible models for signal and all the possible contributions from the background, although that bit&#8217;s a little easier. But it&#8217;s still— that still gets— no, I should never say it&#8217;s easy. It is a very exacting process. And I&#8217;m— you know, we spent a lot of time discussing this point.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Anyways, so what happens is that whereas it&#8217;s a 3.4 sigma local effect in terms of how unusual it would be. In terms of us, you and I just sitting down and discussing, or indeed the experiment producing a result that had any event in this red nuclear recoil region, the chances of that happening but being, as it turns out, caused by a random fluctuation of the MSSI background into this band that global significance drops us to about, I think, 2.6 sigma, which is this 1 in 200 level. It&#8217;s— Now, you know, the right thing to do is firstly, when we&#8217;re talking about one event, is to keep emphasizing this could be a random fluctuation of a background event. It could also just be that we have misunderstood some aspect of the running of of our detector because we&#8217;re trying to understand the detector at a level that is, you know, uh, well past the limit.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Wouldn&#8217;t that have to be, I mean, how far into the process was this event? If you, once you, you know, unblinded it, you&#8217;re then allowed to go back and see when did this event occur, right?</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Yes. So I think, I think I have a, yeah. Yeah, there it is. So this slide actually, so the, this particular run, uh, was hot off the presses when we when, you know, we started doing analyses of this kind, you know, this was the data run from March &#8217;23 to April &#8217;24. But we were focused mainly on the low dark matter, low energy recoils, you know, as a sort of flagship analysis. But we also started working on higher energy regime. But a couple of challenges there. Firstly, we had to— do much higher calibration statistics and nuclear recoil statistics to really make sure we understood where the nuclear recoil band was.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Yeah, no doubt. For this high— and it turned out actually our initial estimates of where that was were slightly wrong, which is one of the reasons why the salting, the blinding— spot. They didn&#8217;t— they weren&#8217;t quite what we subsequently showed through higher statistics calibrations was going on. So 2 years elapsed, as it were, in the analysis and the deep— trying to really understand at a deep level what the chances of multiple scattering and other background were of producing, you know, fake events in this region. And we decided this year that that analysis had matured enough that we were indeed ready to unblind, which we did, and also to go ahead and publish, you know, the results from that unblinding. But of course, since April &#8217;24, we&#8217;ve been continuing to run the detector.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So we&#8217;re actually in this interesting situation of now having, what, over 3 times as much exposure closure at this point. And, you know, so that, of course, in itself, if this is physics— and again, it&#8217;s statistics— but if you say that one event every 220 live days is the rate at which we would like to accumulate physics, it means we have enough data statistically to go ahead and sort of really test whether we are accumulating physics.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s true also— yeah, you&#8217;re absolutely right. But that&#8217;s also true of the background. And it&#8217;s true of the experiment, right? So you should have accumulated, you know, if it&#8217;s background, I mean, then the, there&#8217;s obviously there&#8217;s a lot of people that are critical of a single event, right? I mean, there&#8217;s a thousand papers. Yeah. Yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Yeah. We understand that.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />We&#8217;re not trying to say— I think, I think, you know, your, your H-index was very high, but I, I think it&#8217;s gone up, you know, by a couple orders of magnitude even, or the citation count. I mean, that happened with BICEP too as well. I mean, I was getting emails from my former Brown professor, you know, Robert Brandenberger, you know, 4 days before the result, and they were already writing papers. But tell me, Rick, I mean, this is exciting in all different ways, right? You&#8217;ve already made the case, you know, in the worst possible case, right, for whatever— I don&#8217;t even know what metric that refers to, because the truth is God&#8217;s alone, or Mother Nature&#8217;s if you&#8217;re an atheist, right? But let&#8217;s say this turns out not to be a dark matter candidate. Well, you&#8217;ve learned about the experiment, you&#8217;ve learned about the tool, you&#8217;ve learned about condensed matter physics, which, you know, you&#8217;ve helped me appreciate. My colleague Kaishuan Ni here, a very good friend of mine and been a guest on the podcast.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Yeah, no, I&#8217;ve worked with Kaishuan.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />And yeah, and Elena April, a past guest on the podcast from the liquid, from Xenon-100 and whatever they&#8217;re at now, 1,000. They also have, and I think this is a, you know, I want to chastise you in your field because you guys do so much for understanding practical nuclear physics and the nuclear condensed matter physics that nobody ever talks about and how productive and useful that is. So that&#8217;s the bear case. That&#8217;s the, you know, going back to your investment days, right? That&#8217;s the bear case. The bull case is that either, you know, it&#8217;s new physics or some new background, which would also be incredibly interesting. So I wanna, you know, &#8217;cause we&#8217;re coming up on almost 2 hours and I love talking. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And we&#8217;ll talk more in public, but I know you gotta teach and I gotta teach.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But tell me, Rick, so where do we go from here? Are there other slides that you must show right now? &#8216;Cause I have a lot of questions I wanna put to rest before we wrap up. So let&#8217;s go on to— yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Yeah, I mean, as we&#8217;ve talked about, obviously one interpretation is how can we adjust effective field theory parameters and say that this event, the reason that we&#8217;re seeing it up at 250 keV and we&#8217;re not seeing an accumulation of events at lower energies, you could play around with that idea and that suggests specific Lagrangian you have to say that whatever mechanism is causing the interaction must be actively suppressing low-energy events and— but, you know, benefiting— now, we&#8217;re not suggesting from one event. This is where you need events plural. This is where you need many events because now, as you get an energy distribution, 2 things are going to happen. Firstly, are the events actually lying in the nuclear recoil band, which is a necessary condition for it to be WIMP. If those additional events are not lying in the nuclear recoil band, then that&#8217;s a very good indication that we actually have a systematic background that we didn&#8217;t understand, but that is coming in at a rate of the order of 1 every 220 days. Then the last hypothesis, of course, is that this was just a random fluctuation. And like, you know, plenty of experiments before, you every so often you get that unlucky. Why? Because we do so many experiments—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />you have to get unlucky in terms of a background fluctuation, which is why, you know, we often talk about 5 sigma as being a necessary requirement if you&#8217;re, if you&#8217;re really going to say, you know, a signal is robust enough to, you know, to claim direct discovery.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s right.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So yeah, so that&#8217;s, that&#8217;s really, you know, where we&#8217;re going. And there are specific, you know, models, you know, inelastic Higgsino double doublet submodels. There are also ones where specific choice of Lagrangian that they, of course, have already produced people saying, well, have you looked in another place in your data? And, and it&#8217;s been very exciting because in some cases people actually said, if you look in your appendix of your paper you&#8217;ve published, we&#8217;ve actually done an analysis already of your data and making the following assumptions, we can rule out or we could model which is lovely. I mean, obviously everybody understands that you haven&#8217;t done the efficiency explicitly and you haven&#8217;t done the thing, but it&#8217;s still showing us, you know, very directly on how you can test a whole range of models using the data. I think all I would say is people have to bear with us because it is enormously exacting trying to estimate not just the response of the detector, but also the leakage, the signal leakage. In order for us to, as scientists, to be able to look at an event and say, how much weight should we put on this event, or we hope subsequent events, you have to have formed a very quantitative model of the background. So, you know, that&#8217;s what we&#8217;re doing. That&#8217;s what we&#8217;re doing.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So anyway, I guess I should say, you know, We&#8217;re trying to make the quietest place in the universe inside our— or quietest known watched place in our universe. And I think we&#8217;re doing a pretty damn good job of it. But obviously, you know, we always hope that it&#8217;s not too quiet in the sense that ultimately one of these, one or more of these dark matter particles does actually start depositing energy in our—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />If you want to find a quiet place, Rick, just find out where the string theorists are hanging out. Just kidding. I&#8217;m just kidding out there. I love string theorists. Some of my best friends are string theorists. I just, you know, I don&#8217;t know if I&#8217;d want them to marry my daughter. Rick, this has been awesome. I just have a couple of questions because it&#8217;s so rare we get to, you know, hang out and chat.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But, um, but I guess, you know, fundamentally, you know, the next, the next generation, if we, we&#8217;re going to extend, you know, if you had made that, uh, I assume you made the Gordon Moore, you know, kind of law for dark matter detectors, you know, before this event occurred. But This might throw things in, throw a wrench into it, might make another knee on that plot to descend even farther faster. What are some of the ultimate limits? What&#8217;s Mother Nature&#8217;s veil that she, as Feynman said, refuses to let you pick up? Is it the neutrino background? Is it some other exotic phenomenon?</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Well, so actually December of last year, we announced a result where we have accumulated around 20 20 neutrino events in the LZ detector, and those are events from the 8 boron component of the solar neutrinos. Those are neutrinos that are just energetic enough that when they coherently scatter off xenon, we can see the recoils. Now, that&#8217;s a 15 MeV neutrino. That flux is, well, in our terms, quite high.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah. 20 events.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So that means when we&#8217;re doing very— when we&#8217;re looking for signals at the lowest end of our signal now, we have to allow for the fact that the dark matter events, if the dark matter events are down at those low energies, they&#8217;re going to be mixed in with neutrino, low-energy 8 boron neutrino events. Now, as you go to higher energies, actually solar neutrinos, you know, they cut off at 15 MeV, so we&#8217;re not going to do it. But, you know, atmospheric cosmic neutrinos. So that&#8217;s, you know, cosmic ray interactions producing neutrinos in the atmosphere. Those energies go up much higher, those neutrinos. And it&#8217;s not going to occur in LZ. But if we were to, you know, go, as is quite natural, we build not a 10-ton detector, but a 100-ton order detector, and we run it for 10 years or something like that. What starts happening is, is we do expect to start seeing nuclear recoil signal, and that comes about from atmospheric neutrinos.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />It actually also somewhat amazingly is we could start seeing the occasional event also from neutrinos from the diffuse supernova background, which is—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />That&#8217;s basically all the supernovas across the entire universe over time going off bang, and it turns out that the GeV, those GeV neutrinos could also be depositing energy through scattering off nuclei in a xenon detector. So that is a sort of fog in the sense that you start seeing individual events occurring and now you have to say that that could be associated with the neutrinos, it could be associated with dark matter, and statistically what we have to do is determine the neutrino signals as well as we possibly can so that we can see any anomalous or increase in the rate above that which would indicate dark matter. So that&#8217;s what, that&#8217;s what we mean by entering the fog, is we&#8217;re now statistically having to allow for, you know, 2 possible hypotheses for them. So that&#8217;s, it&#8217;s, that&#8217;s some way away from this kind of work we&#8217;re doing at the moment. We have gotta do a lot more pushing to get into the fog.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Another question I have, I can&#8217;t resist. I ask it whenever I talk to your friends Alina and Kaishuan and anyone else who&#8217;s working in this field. But, but what are your thoughts about the current state of DAMA? Um, I did a video about them last year in connection to, you know, the, the most persistent signal that&#8217;s believed by nobody that has the best, uh— well, it&#8217;s not believed by nobody, but, um, and I&#8217;m gonna ask, it&#8217;s not just to dish dirt, but, but, uh, tell me, Rick, first, because I think, you know, I&#8217;m going to ask you a follow-up which is basically what I&#8217;ve wanted them to do for a long time, which is to build a DAMA Southern Hemisphere. But tell me, Rick, what are your thoughts as one of the world&#8217;s foremost experts on experimental physics in this field? What are your opinions about DAMA?</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Well, so &#8217;90s, I was around in &#8217;97 when they came out with the first annual modulation. Yeah, 29 years ago. it— obviously, we were enormously excited.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />It&#8217;s the mechanism that dark matter uses to modulate in that way, you know, is a very, you know, very natural, well understood. And it implied that there would be a very high rate of dark matter in not just the DAMA experiment but actually a number of the other experiments we were running at the same time. So it really motivated, you know, us looking for corresponding events in similar detectors. Now, as the decade went on, so, you know, through the noughties, if you like, we managed to build these other detectors that were more and more sensitive. And unfortunately, we did just did not see any individual events. So DAMA was seeing, if you like, a statistical process, which was this few percent modulation of a large number of events which— where the hypothesis was that a small— sorry, that some fraction of those events were conventional background and some other fraction were dark matter and the modulation was in the dark matter component and the observation of modulation over the year, higher in June, slightly a few percent lower in December and up, down, up, down like that, that that was evidence for the dark matter. But we were running other experiments that on a— literally on a single event by a single event basis could tell the difference between a nuclear recoil and more conventional background. And we just weren&#8217;t seeing any of the— any events in our other detectors that would be consistent with the dark matter.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Now, there were ways to modify the theories which actually includes inelastic dark matter. In fact, that was a time when inelastic dark matter became interesting because that was potentially a way to explain the difference in results. Although one of the things we did with our xenon detector in the mid-noughties, 2006, around then, is we made a very sensitive, just 10-kilogram detector. But the fact that it did not see events from dark matter because the xenon&#8217;s heavier than the iodine in the DAMA experiment, you could no longer use this inelastic get-out clause to sort of effectively explain why why nobody else was seeing the DAMA events. So just from a pure scientific process point of view, the fact that we&#8217;ve been unable to replicate the DAMA results either in sodium iodide experiments, which have now reached a level of sensitivity that are comparable, you know, to DAMA. And DAMA was an exquisitely designed experiment.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So it took a long time for other people to replicate everything that they got right in the DAMA experiment. But also at the same time we had all these other competing— well, not competing, but, you know, other dark matter, direct detection dark matter experiments that were not seeing events. That&#8217;s a problem for a— for one result if you can&#8217;t seem to get confirmation with other experiments. So, you know, the net result is it&#8217;s a very clear modulation. It&#8217;s gone on for— they&#8217;ve stopped the experiment now, although I think they&#8217;re rebuilding it with an independent group.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, LIBRA, aren&#8217;t they? Is that right?</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Yeah, well, actually, LIBRA was part of DAMA and they went on. There&#8217;s now— I&#8217;ve forgot what they&#8217;re calling it, but they&#8217;re basically taking the same setup and they&#8217;re going to do it again to try to see whether they can see how this— how the annual modulation might be getting in somehow to the experiment.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah, the final thing I wanted to ask you about, you know, because how often do I get a chance to talk to not only a friend, a valued and treasured colleague, but a professor at my alma mater, involves the work of a former— well, I should say, involves the work of someone who&#8217;s at a university that&#8217;s also my alma mater, namely my undergraduate alma mater, Case Western Reserve University. And that&#8217;s where I was an undergraduate before I came to Brown in &#8217;93. I cannot believe it&#8217;s been 33 years since I started there. But nevertheless, it is. and you weren&#8217;t there, unfortunately. I would have loved to have you as a professor, colleague, friend, you know, uncle in the lab, so to speak. You&#8217;re not that much older than me. But tell me, Rick, the work that Stacey McGaugh and others have done on MOND.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You mentioned—</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Yes, yeah.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You mentioned work by my former colleague, Kim Greist. I mean, he&#8217;s my emeritus colleague. He&#8217;s still a friend. Kim Greist here on MACHOs, and that was really big here, you know, in the &#8217;90s and 2000s, but that&#8217;s largely gone away. But recently, a paper, you know, by my friend Alessandro Melchiorri, I just made a video about on my channel this week called Why the Dip? And that has to do with Gaia data from 3 years ago, also around the same time as your event, Rick, by the way. Kind of interesting. Gaia came out with a map of the Milky Way&#8217;s stars and velocities and kinematics, and they show that there&#8217;s actually a semi-Keplerian drop, which is highly unexpected, both in the dark matter paradigm that you and many others are more or less committed to in one way or another. But it also rules out MOND because MOND was invented to do what dark matter does, but without requiring those fanciful Higgs-ino doublets or whatever you may have detected, or that one.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />I mean, it reminds me of the Valentine&#8217;s Day event. What do you feel? What is your take on MOND?</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Well, so Stuart, firstly, cold dark matter needed You know, if you&#8217;re gonna really develop your understanding of dark matter and cold dark matter specifically, you needed competing theories. So of course you will remember when we used to also be very serious about hot dark matter, relativistic particles, and it was enormously important to just compare those 2 models, both sort of dark matter models. But— and it really drove us to understand rates of structure formation and the way in which data and obviously increasingly precise data that we&#8217;ve managed to get in terms of, you know, the structure, evolution, history of our, of our, you know, universe. And the MOND in a different sense was enormously important. Again, you know, there have to be competing theories in order for you to understand any model. It&#8217;s always extremely instructive to have other competing models. So it would be, you know, in a sense, it&#8217;s not good if there is only the one theory. Now, of course, cold dark matter has been so damn successful.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />It is you have to be quite brave coming up with theory. MOND has done very well, except that you always have to remember that MOND was kind of structured to solve a specific problem, which, as you know, is to do with the individual galaxy rotation curves. So when students come up to me and say, Rick, you do realize that, you know, rotation curves in galaxies is a solved issue, it&#8217;s like, hang on, you&#8217;ve got to be a little careful about your logic there, because realize that MOND was designed to solve solved that issue. So let&#8217;s try to look at how MOND fares in other regimes. And that, of course, is, you know, that&#8217;s how any good theory gets tested. And cold dark matter has done phenomenally well over a huge number of length scales and obviously time, you know, evolution. And, you know, MOND has had some challenges in that respect. You know, and then if we end up having to say, well, okay, you know, it&#8217;s MOND plus dark matter.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />You know, in a sense—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Yeah.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Of course, nature has proven that nature is quite willing to give us mixed models. But from a, you know, from a theory point of view, obviously we&#8217;d like to, if we can, define whatever the dominant solution is for dark matter or the dominant solution is for dark energy. And we have to hope a little bit that nature decides to make one of the models dominantly the solution is. If that&#8217;s not the case, if it turns out nature&#8217;s used 5 separate, you know, components all to contribute—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />You know, I always say, you know, if you said I&#8217;m looking for matter, ordinary matter, then, you know, I&#8217;d say, well, what kind? There&#8217;s 116 of them, you know, on the periodic table. But, you know, most people don&#8217;t agree with me. And lastly, you know, I often often say, you know, people use dark matter as a canard, as a polemic against physicists, saying, you know, you also alluded to it in a way of being humble against hubris, but they&#8217;ll say things not as charitable. They&#8217;ll say, you physicists are idiots, you don&#8217;t know what 95% of the world, the universe is made of, and yet you claim to be able to tell us all sorts of things about, you know, the future and so forth. I like to point out that dark matter has already been detected, and you guys, even if this particles correct, it won&#8217;t be the first, because we&#8217;ve known since 1956 that neutrinos exist, and we&#8217;ve known since 2008 or before, 2001 maybe, that neutrinos have mass. So they fit every definition of dark matter. They&#8217;re massive, they&#8217;re weakly interacting in this case, and they don&#8217;t interact with light. So people that claim that there must be some alternative like MOND, I feel like that&#8217;s the strongest objection.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />In other words, Yes, it is true, it doesn&#8217;t make up the complete density of the universe, the missing density in terms of matter, non-baryonic matter, but neither does xenon itself, or neither does iron. Iron doesn&#8217;t make up much of the universe as well. Is it important to us? Absolutely. If the only thing we knew about was iron, we&#8217;d be, you know, we&#8217;d have some knowledge, but we couldn&#8217;t surely say that there has to be some other alternative form of matter or whatnot, right? So why do people reject the dark matter WIMP paradigm. So I&#8217;m thinking of Sabine Hossenfelder, who&#8217;s a friend and been on the show many— she thinks this is all a big waste. I mean, she&#8217;s hopeful. She said, you guys are in a gold mine hoping to get gold in the form of a Nobel Prize. And I hope that you do if you&#8217;re right.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />But the point is, people mock dark matter, but we know dark matter exists. And I see this from Elon Musk. I see this from everybody that it&#8217;s all a scam. And we haven&#8217;t done anything in physics since before string theory. So where do you take us? Take us out on this final question. The existence of the neutrino, doesn&#8217;t that truly substantiate that dark matter is particulate in any case? May not be only from neutrinos, but doesn&#8217;t it give us a big boost?</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />My, you know, those early dark matter detectors were indeed testing the hypothesis that Dirac neutrinos, the kind of conventional sort of neutrinos you&#8217;re talking about, if they were the dominant mass in the universe and if they were massive enough to be cold, or a Dirac neutrino was massive enough to be cold, we were able to directly test that hypothesis. And we, you know, that was enormously instructive that we managed to rule out, you know, that there were massive Dirac neutrinos making up the dominant part of the dark matter. I mean, it&#8217;s always interesting. Again, it comes back to this sort of— you work on a question for 40 years. For some people, just the fact that you had to work on it for 5 makes it a pointless— they immediately assume that—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Instant gratification, right?</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />And it&#8217;s, gosh, you&#8217;re really not— you&#8217;re failing to understand how science works. Now, the fact that we are in a society or a structure that that is prepared to, you know, back us and to allow us to do work over these long periods. I mean, if, you know, if I&#8217;d been an ancient astronomer, you know, and coming up with dark matter would have been the difference between whatever my ruler was, the difference between them maintaining power or getting usurped because clearly they&#8217;re not—</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Not a brown, not a brown.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Well, I mean, astronomers always have this sort of leg up with respect to eclipses. But of course, if you got one eclipse wrong, you know, that probably terminated your career in a very unfortunate manner.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Maybe your life.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Yeah, well, no, indeed, that&#8217;s what I&#8217;m getting at. So, you know, we— but, you know, in the lifetime of a researcher or the, you know, all this, all the attention span, if you like, of a researcher, some research, that&#8217;s not the useful metric here. You really have to look at the problems on this larger scale. And also keep looking at all of the other data that we&#8217;re getting to see how consistent the hypotheses are with what we&#8217;re getting. You know, if we manage to construct an experiment that demonstrates signal or a propensity to develop or to generate dark matter through some other mechanism, and we do have— we&#8217;re doing tests of that type in many other different channels. If we start seeing a significant sort of positive indicator there, then obviously that would suggest certainly that looking for a WIMP particle, you know, is less well motivated because it&#8217;s going to be a sub-dominant or very small component.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />It&#8217;s—</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />trying to rule it out completely is always going to be, you know, a very significant challenge.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Would that mean that the nightmare scenario is that dark matter exists, it&#8217;s similar to inflation right? Inflation could have happened, but could be so undetectable, so low in energy, that we can never prove it or rule out and falsify alternatives. Is that the nightmare scenario for you, that the neutrino fog, you know, will be the ultimate limit? And are there any other, you know, proposals to, you know, clean that background? I thought it was hard to clean the galaxy of its polarized dust B-mode emission, but scrubbing the universe of neutrinos seems impossible by comparison. So— Well, That&#8217;s your nightmare scenario.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />I mean, the neutrinos and the dark matter, of course, have 2 very different signatures when you start considering the typical direction in which they&#8217;re hitting your detector. So it is fair to say that if you want to associate a signal of nuclear recoils with a galactically interesting astrophysical source, the fact that the sun is in motion, you know, 230 kilometers a second around the Milky Way and therefore that the Earth is being carried with it. That, you know, that Cygnus, you point towards Cygnus, that&#8217;s where the sun&#8217;s heading. That does skew the recoils you get from dark matter away from Cygnus. So that is a signature. Now, in xenon, we&#8217;ve tried to look for possible ways of getting directionality in liquid xenon. That hasn&#8217;t happened, but other researchers have demonstrated that using alternative targets, usually with gas, although there has been work on some solid, you know, stilbene for instance, and— but that it will be possible to see the recoil direction. And of course, if you&#8217;re able to do an experiment that&#8217;s measuring the recoil direction of your— The recoil direction of the beam.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />your nuclei, then the neutrino fog actually is no longer a fog because it&#8217;s statistically, it&#8217;s, you know, isotropic or, you know, it doesn&#8217;t have that correlated singleness.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />That&#8217;s right.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />So there are ways through it. Of course, it requires a lot of research to make a— I often talk about Sisyphean index, technology that wants to work. If an experiment or a particular technology wants to work, I call that a low Sisyphean index.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Right.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />If it&#8217;s going to roll down the hill on you every time you turn your back or you try to go to sleep one night and the technology comes back down the hill and you&#8217;ve got to push it up again, high Sisyphean index, not so good. So we&#8217;re always, when we&#8217;re doing dark matter experiments, we&#8217;re always rather dependent on finding low Sisyphean index materials. Xenon, I think, has a very low Sisyphean index. It really wants to work. If we&#8217;re going to build a 100-ton detector made of gas, we&#8217;re filling cathedrals. We want to make sure that we&#8217;re doing it with a technology that really wants to work. It&#8217;s quite doable on the scheme of systems that we&#8217;ve built in the past.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Well, Rick, this has been fascinating. I want to cut it off before we hit the 2-hour mark because this is just too exciting, too delicious. And hopefully by the time I&#8217;m visiting you again, I will be able to do it in person, and then we&#8217;ll have a little bit more clarity what it is, what it was, and we&#8217;ll refer back to this, you know, watershed epochal event. So, Rick Gaetzkill, you know, tremendous, tremendous amount of gratitude. You&#8217;ve been unbelievably kind and generous with your time during this incredibly busy time for you traveling around faster than a neutrino. Rick, this has been great. Thank you so much for communicating with me and my audience. Thank you.</p><p>Rick Gaetzkill:<br />Brian, thank you so much. It&#8217;s been a great pleasure talking with you again.</p><p>Brian Keating:<br />Thank you, my friend.</p><p> </p>								</div>
				</div>
					</div>
				</div>
				</div>
		]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://briankeating.com/they-built-the-quietest-place-on-earth-to-find-dark-matter/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
			</item>
	</channel>
</rss>
