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BRIANKEATING

The AI labs are quietly terrified of biology

Dear Magicians,

Why I’m Not Worried About My Job

I signed up for Claude Science the week it shipped. I went in chasing Lorentz invariance, maybe a crack at the theory of everything that eluded Einstein. What I found was protein folding. Genomics. PubMed, NIH, cheminformatics. I clicked through every offering and, when I looked, nothing was physics. It was biology, biochemistry, pharmacology, top to bottom.

That is not an accident. It is a confession.

Here is the mechanism, and it’s one I feel in my own work. Biology is a supervised-learning problem: millions of genomes, billions of protein sequences, decades of labeled examples. A neural network eats that. Physics is not. There is no training corpus of a million quantum-gravity examples. Nature supplied exactly one universe, and experimental cosmology proceeds one observation at a time, each one costing a multinational collaboration a decade and a billion dollars. A model cannot interpolate between examples that do not exist. So it is fluent in molecular biology and merely ordinary at the vacuum.

Ask Sam Altman or Dario Amodei what a scientist needs and the honest answer is a genomics stack and a protein-folder. To them, “science” means biology. AlphaFold earned Hassabis a Nobel, and it deserved it, but notice what it was: enormous intelligence applied to a problem already well posed. That is brilliant, but is it truly universal, like the laws of physics purport to be?

This is also why the labs are quietly most afraid of bioweapons. The dual-use is not a side effect, it’s arithmetic: the algorithm that finds a beneficial mutation can find a harmful one. And the barrier is gone. Want proof? Iran is still trying to produce a fission device 80 years after the USA deployed one in war. A pathogen has no such floor. Annie Jacobsen’s sources told her a kid in a basement, with an LLM, now approaches what once took a state. When she got a model to surface something it shouldn’t, it was fixed fast, because she had the CEO’s ear. Most people don’t. Safety becomes a race against diffusion, and diffusion usually wins.

Progress amplifies human intentions. It does not improve them.

Which is exactly why I sleep fine about my own trade. These systems master what has already been done and merely needs horsepower. Give one my Brian Keating-Einstein test and it’s a brilliant undergraduate and a hopeless Einstein: it will fold a known protein, but it cannot tell you which unasked question about the vacuum is worth your life. Wisdom is still scarce. So is physics. I’ll keep my job.

Until next time, have a M.A.G.I.C. Week,

Brian

Appearance

My conversation with Pulitzer finalist Annie Jacobsen goes live today on Into the Impossible (EP 559), timed to the release of her new book Biological War: A Scenario. Her previous scenario book was about nuclear war, where the terror is instantaneous visibility. This one is about the opposite problem: a war that may begin as a cough, a cluster, and a statistical disagreement.

I pushed her on the question I care about most. If biological war began, how would we know?

I’ll be visiting with her again for a live podcast and book signing event. If you’re in San Diego, come out and see us on Coronado Island next Thursday

Genius

Last week, I told you about the good news that the Sun won’t engulf the Earth for another four billion years. This week, I’m sad to say I have to bring you some sadder, more pressing news. Apparently, the universe has been trying to kill us for millions of years, and we’re only just reading the memo.

new study suggests that, about 2.5 million years ago, a passing star wandered a little too close, gave our Oort Cloud a gravitational shove, and started a comet shower we’re still living through today. That’s right—the dinosaurs got an asteroid, and we inherited the cosmic leftovers.

As a cosmologist, I find this oddly comforting. Every time I think my inbox is overwhelming, I remember there’s an ancient celestial snow globe still shaking debris toward Earth because one star couldn’t mind its own business.

The best part? This means the solar system has neighborhood drama… Anyone up for a reboot of Apple TV’s “Your Friends and Neighbors” Solar System Edition!

Image

The powerful and talented team behind the Simons Observatory at our annual face-to-face meeting at the University of Toronto.

Conversation

Latest on Into The Impossible

COVID had a 1% death rate. Pneumonic plague has 100%.

​Annie Jacobsen has spent years interviewing presidential advisors, STRATCOM commanders, and Soviet bioweapons defectors. Her new book, Biological War: A Scenario, walks through how an outbreak goes from lab leak to total anarchy — in just 6 days.

We got into the CDC’s most-feared pathogens, the “kid in a basement” problem now that AI can help design bioweapons, and why the first 24 hours after a leak decide everything.

Watch the full conversation to hear it.

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By popular demand, and for my mental health 😳, I am starting a paid “Office Hours” where you all can connect with me for the low price of $19.99 per hour. I get a lot of requests for coffee, to meet with folks one on one, to read people’s Theories of Everything etc. Due to extreme work overload, I’m only able to engage directly with supporters who show an ongoing commitment to dialogue—which is why I host a monthly Zoom session exclusively for patrons in the $19.99/month tier.

It’s also available for paid Members of my Youtube channel at the Cosmic Office Hours level (also $19.99/month). Join here and see you in my office hours!

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